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tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  August 2, 2019 3:00pm-4:59pm EDT

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the u.s. and particularly the >> ryou had four live shots in western u.s. and then internationally japan. both of those remain very robust anchorage get through beautifully. and performing well in those how did you do it? >> reporter: it's all me environments. >> peter, do you welcome the nobody helped me. >> that's wonderful. issues that southwest is having given its fleet's exposure to wonderful. thank you, jane! boeing 737 max, given they are >> she's the best. thank you for watching "power the airline that is adding a lunch. closing bell right now large amount of capacity, as you welcome to "closing bell." mentioned earlier? a crazy week for markets and the fed to tariff to earnings. >> well, you know, we certainly what is the result don't wish for challenges on any of our competitors we're set for the worst week of welcome back we're perfectly capable of another huge week for earnings the year as we head to the final trade, competing head to head with any coming up. we have everything you need to many on the docket let's start with a preview of know coming up. >> i'm sara eisen. carriers that are flying to what to expect from disney hawaii and we're well equipped happy friday let's look at what is driving julia has that for us. >> well, analysts expect revenue the action to do that i think for the industry it'll lower in stock to grow 41% in the quarter, trade fears sending stock be good news when the max is likely driven by the theme parks back up and flying again and all with "star wars" galaxy's edge the airlines are able to get opening at disneyland. the studio is on track with a sharply lower. past that issue. big quarter with record-breaking wage gains did come in ahead >> so what are you telling offestments and the 10 year investors, peter what is the pitch for those yield continues to fall. worried about the margin "avengers: endgame" and box coming up later in the show, pressures coming from the office aladdin
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we are looking for disney plus competition about how you're going to turn it around we'll speak exclusively with tom to launch in november. >>well, i think we're focussed back to you. >> julia, thanks donahue about the impact of the on what we can do to make our new round of tariffs on american uber and lyft set to report next airline better every day and continue to execute well for the week leslie picker with a pick for companies. very powerful business lobby group. joining us for the how is long-term. us. >> reporter: both trading well we are competitively better below the ipo prices michael from ubs with us for the top of the show can second quarter earnings give is steve grasso. equipped to serve hawaii because them the boost they need of our fleet and our products wall street expects both companies to continue posting losses if you remember last quarter and our great customer service the search for yield seems to be and cost structure than any they reported each had quarterly other carrier. defi so in a more challenging losses around a billion dollars. defining the action today. marketplace, we know we're talk about what the interest outperforming on revenue between lyft grappling as well with a rate move means for stocks. the western u.s. and hawaii. series of executive departiers, we've got solid business flying coo and cmo leaving the company. >> rea well, i mean, theoretically in the neighbor islands. makes them more valuable our international business is because if you look at the uber announced lay-offs in the earnings yield on the s&p, it's strong so the environment may be about 5% marketing division uber reporting on thursday, lyft we're about 18 or 19 times tougher but we're executing and is reporting on wednesday. but earnings somewhere around guys. >> leslie, thank you very much there. you've got a 10 year at 1.85%. a leader in all the places we fly. >> peter, thank you for joining sara, clearly next week the big us. you have an s&p yield that is >> thank you very much have a good weekend. reports we mentioned >> you too now higher or about the same as do we need to see the 3%, 4% the 10-year yield. up next game changing proposal for parents from the highs republican senator bill cassidy we are down 3.5 from the highs, that's compelling, but you making a big push to change how seeing a flight to quality moms and dads can take advantage 4% this week for germany, china t to watch out for and take comfort from of their benefits when "closing down 3% for the week today is you're not seeing today of their benefits when "closing bell" comes back we had a big pull back
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over the weekend do people look at it and does it allow people gold and the dollar surge at the same time. to settle enough that would be a double safety >> the two questions come into of their benefits when "closing bell" comes back my doctor recommended eliquis. play, is there a power put and a flight quality and a true risk eliquis is proven to treat and help prevent off warnings sign. trump put. is powell going to come with hopefully it's a sign that we another dvt or pe blood clot... interest rate cuts don't have investors way off is trump going to make a trade almost 98 percent of patients on eliqui deal if things get so bad in the sides, way out of position, you didn't experience another. market and economy here we go again ...and eliquis has significantly we have been debating it all know, with this. year >> they're saying gold and the less major bleeding things took a turn for the worse than the standard treatment. eliquis is fda approved on both fronts this week. and has both. >> absolutely. don't stop eliquis >> that will be the question yen. >> yeah. it's true the dollar is actually unless your doctor tells you to. ultimately because both have been big drivers of the market eliquis can cause serious going higher, 20% in 2019. and in rare cases fatal bleeding. flat >> we are out of time here have we learned the market cares more about trade than the fed? don't take eliquis if you have an artificial heart valve thanks for watching. >> i think it cares about both that does it for "closing bell." the problem is, once we're done or abnormal bleeding. >> "fast money" begins right if you had a spinal injection while on eliquis with the fed right now for now call your doctor right away in a month, month and a half, it if you have tingling, numbness, or muscle weakness. now. feels as if it can focus more on live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's while taking eliquis, times square, this is "fast money" you may bruise more easily... i'm scott wapner in tonight for trade. but it's sort of a chicken and and it may take longer than usual melissa lee. our traders on the desk are tim for bleeding to stop. egg process. seek immediate medical care seymour, brian kelly, dan nathan we'll need the negative headlines to ensure we get a for sudden signs of bleeding, like unusual bruising. and steve grasso powell cut, and unfortunately, eliquis may increase your bleeding risk wall street wrapping up one wild week if you're not hearing from if you take certain medicines. the nasdaq, the s&p handing in powell for a month and a half, tell your doctor about all planned medical their worst weeks of the year you'll hear nothing but or dental procedures. negativity coming out of the what's around the corner could be surprising. white house and coming out of while the dow just dodged that trade because you kind of wants ask your doctor mark, but it has certainly been about eliquis. president trump, president trump a roller coaster ride for your wants to push that money after president trump turned up the volume on the
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we've heard from powell it's on a scale of one to five? trade war with china about trade, it's about lack of one to five? it's more like five million. now that some steam has been let inflation pushing him to make out of the record run, is now a the cut. there's everything from happy i don't understand why we gave good the deadline of september 1st. to extremely happy. i would have rather had an there's also angry. october 1st so you getto hear i'm really angry clive! actually, really angry. from powell in between that thank you. but what if your business could understand what your customers are feeling... month period, but truth is, and then do something about it. powell can do whatever he wants at any point turn problems into opportunities. he can do it today he wanted to cut rates. thanks drone. customers into fanatics change the whole experience. >> the next round of trade talks alright who wants to go again? are in september i do! i do! somewhere in between there. i have a really good feeling about this. >> yeah. you still have that idea what happens if he doesn't. tell him we're flexible. he already hedged himself. don't worry. my dutch is ok. just ok? he said we don't necessarily have to put on the extra 10% (in dutch) if september 1st comes and goes and he doesn't put on the extra tell him we need this merger. 10%, does that really push (in dutch) powell to cut again or give the market a little bit more breathing room for another quarter point reduction? it's happening..! >> i would point out, the u.s. just ok is not ok. especially when it comes to your network. at&t is america's best wireless network equity indexes not as ugly as some of the according to america's biggest test. indexes around the rest of the now with 5g evolution. year china down 1.4 the first step to 5g. more for your thing. that's our thing. let's focus on the big stories you should be mad at leaf blowers.
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we're watching the latest on trade and ivan has [beep] a look at the jobs report from this morning you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. courtney is covering the market and the trade for retail and martha is tackling the and you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. nasdaq kayla, we'll start with you. >> reporter: sara is right, the chinese delegation is expected to come back to washington in but you're not mad, early seventh. because you have e*trade which isn't complicated. that's why the september 1st effective decade for the tariffs their tools make trading quicker and simpler. is critical. trade watchers say it might be so you can take on the markets with confidence. don't get mad. deja vu from what happened in may when the president announced get e*trade and start trading today. a tariff hike in conjunction with the delegation's visit then when one doesn't come, he put them on several weeks later. welcome back that could happen again. let's take a look how we finish we're waiting to hear how this the day on wall street could be put into effect earlier today, even as the significant declines, though, for the nasdaq down 1.3% larger china trade war simmers, for the week as a whole, we did see about 4% of declines for the the trump administration tried to prove it can win the smaller nasdaq up 2.6 for the dow somewhere between the s&p 500. battles. announcing a deal with the european union to allow more >> worst week for the s&p for american hormone-free beef to the year bill cassidy from louisiana come into the eu
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proposing a new paid parental president trump made it clear he has one constituency in mind. leave plan a bipartisan bill that gives >> my administration is standing parents the option of taking up for our farmers and ranchers benefits earlier like never before. we're protecting our farmers i spoke to senator cassidy for we're doing it in many prepared more on the proposal. >> does not increase payroll taxes, which are regresive did does not put mandates on employers or employees, which as for chinese retaliation and what kind he didn't answer any requests at a freedom fellow i like. that event china said it will retaliate what it does is builds upon the it has no choice, all though it fact that we increase the child may be running out of some tax credit in the tax cut and options, at les on the tariff jobs act bill to $2,000. front. at the employee's option, if the >> that's what i was going to ask you. what are the expectations either from the white house or among mother or father's option, they can pull forward the benefit the people you talk to for when recognizing the first year of life is about two to three times and how the chinese would retaliate. >> reporter: we asked larry more expensive than subsequent kudlow that question earlier years of life. and they can pull forward a today. he refused to speculate about portion of that benefit so that how china could potentially when the child is born, they'll retaliate. it depends on who you ask. get $5,000 and then as they go forward, if you ask political strategists, they say that china their benefit is reduced to pay, wants to be a globalized if you will, that money forward. economy. it doesn't want to risk big but in so doing, at their multinational companies not doing business there if you a the option, they can either replace ground, they say there's a real
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possibility they get licenses income so they can stay at home with the child, or they can pay middle of the night audits, that for daycare, if they wish to go there's any number of things that china can back to work immediately. >> why go at this through the little to no notice that could tax code why not do something more ambitious and propose a paid really stymie their business in the near term. >> kayla, what have we learned parental leave program in this in the last 24 hours about who country like every other developed country in the world in the administration specifically backs this latest round of tariffs and what it >> so you got to pay for it. implies for whether or not they're going to get lifted or and those are regressive taxes increased going forward. at least as the proposals are >> reporter: we know that this coming forward currently tariff -- the series of tariff and that these regressive taxes tweets happened after the disproportionally fall up on president was briefed as he is those who are lower income after these rounds by his trade secondly, we know as we pull all principles returning from china. they were sitting in the room and they crafted this statement the dollars forward, we're give together the "wall street journal" is paid parental leave. reporting that ambassador robert we know when folks have their children, oftentimes they're younger. lighthizer, who has been one of the china hawks throughout the their income is lower, as they process, and been a large proponent of tariffs up until age, their income grows. so we think even as we pull now. the journa trying to get a forward, we kind of match with the income growt the income little bit more clarity on exactly what his thinking was of a family at a particular stage of their life. if you look at everything, it there. >> kayla, thank you. we turn to the jobs report balances out and the family
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coming in today mostly in line cruises up to a more prosperous with execlations for july. lifestyle without paying more taxes. >> so we'll see if it gets >> reporter: right 164,000 jobs in july with the passed clearly there's no political unemployment rate unchanged at appetite to pass anything like a actual paid parental leave 3.7% we know hiring slowed this year. program in this country. it lets you take the tax -- the labor department provides child tax credit earlier down estimates for the last two it doesn't mean you're going to get anymore money. months by 41,000 fewer jobs than it lets you take it earlier and reported previously. it's interesting that the you get reduced benefits over department also called out, your lifetime. quote, markedly slower job you know, the fertility rate in growth in manufacturing. this country is at a low time now that sector added $16,000 low. it's so expensive to have jobs last month. children it's one of the determinants of but the average gains so far poverty in this country. this year is just half that. proposals like this don't move now compare that to last year, the needle on that maybe it makes it easier to take when manufacturing averaged some paid time off or time off. 22,000 jobs per month. a lot of concern here that this is all part of the fallout over >> is there bipartisan support in this area the trade war. not really still small? guys >> i think among voters and everything we've seen in the >> ylan, thank you i wonder people are talking cnbc surveys, all america about the idea that the average surveys, there's bipartisan workweek fell to the lowest support for these kind of level in nearly two years. measures and the fact this >> yeah. >> in july a signal that proposal is bipartisan does show manufacturers are cutting back that however, there is traditionally workers.
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how many forward-looking signs disagreement on how the types of are there in this report what are they pointing to? things would be paid for >> yeah, well, i think there are this one doesn't really increase two questions. i mean, we printed 164, the six the deficit. so perhaps it can get through. >> sara's interview was month average is now 140 fantastic. so we're certainly getting at a up next betting big on lower level of unemployment at clebs. one venturcataste pili an annual basis. if you go under 100,000, i think you're nearing traction and manufacturing is a pressure point. no doubt about it. if we see weakness in the economy, we'll see it in manufacturing employment and retail employment. so that is, i think, the picture on the report that is still the jury is still out. are we not employing as many because we're running out of workers not employing as many because we're losing steam in there's more evidence in the next couple of months. i think the tariff discussion will be informed bythat discussion. >> do you think the jobs number, in particular the average earnings do you think it makes the fed more reticent to cut next time around >> so i think they have their cover with headlines and trade they have their cover with lack
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of inflation, but, of course, when you go to historic lows in unemployment, and when you start to look at the average hourly workweek, anything that they can use to bolster their case, they're going to use the problem is, you had a couple of descenters on the last time around there's going to be descenters no matter what happens one is that 1600 pennsylvania avenue i think that's the loudest voice in the room. and what is behind you here. the market the market demands a cut the market wants easy money. for the market to move higher, we have to have a cut andunles you see what is happening right now, yes, we're only 3.5% from all time highs, but to keep the train going, to keep the money funneling into risk assets and into the equity market, you need those rates to stay where they are. >> this action and bonds is stunning right now continue to make new lows for yields a 10-year yield on track for the biggest weekly drop since june 2012. >> i mean, well --
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>> is that a fed play? >> it matches up with royal. right. it matches up with inflation expectations, which are practically nil. so the good news on this is, it gives the fed a lot of leeway to do what they want i think the problem with the press conference was you didn't quite have the market aligned with the fed. you had the market ahead of the fed. and expecting the fed almost to surprise them, which sounds a little silly i think the tariff tweet issue has helped possibly all the voting members now are lying behind powell. before they didn't feel as strongly about a cut. >> does he feel like he's one new celebrity-backed brands over. >> i don't think -- >> at this point. make good investments? >> he put out a statement this nicole quinn from life speed venture partners led investments in lady gaga's new house morning showing why is not the time to be cutting. >> to your point, we said how it laboratories, paltrow's goop and the honest company was closed when it happened. nicole joins us from san not closed today. francisco. what is the secret to finding a >> fully negative. celebrity entrepreneur that can >> basically negative half a
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also make a profitable and percent. >> and across the board. >> exactly across the board at the moment the averages could fast-growing consumer brand? turn in the worst week of the >> so as you mentioned, we've suddenly invested in a lot of year the dow has had a little bit of a comeback we may escape that headline businesses that have celebrities later at the close as the founders, as the courtney is having a look at the big movers. chairwomen as lady gaga is >> reporter: a lot can happen in so it is something we think the final hour right. about a lot. one of the things that we think but markets seem a little inclined to hold up here makes it very successful is when we're well off the lows of the session. we're seeing some resiliency they have a truly authentic, because of that and all of these things you've put together passionate, engaged user base. you can find something for the take lady gaga bears and the bulls. she has over 18 million the dow had fallen 334 points a followers on twitter alone, the low. nearly 40 million on instagram we're down about 190 these are little monsters. these are people who are so industrials, though, like passionate about lady gaga we are living in a world where caterpillar is under pressure it is becoming increasingly because it makes sense what we're talking about and the expensive for brands to acquire uncertainty with global growth users on facebook, on google and and the tariffs. transports have fallen back into television correction territory so we find it easier and more we want to watch those efficient to turn a fan into a weighed down by names like norfolk southern user than it is to acquire a new you can see rider down 1.4% user so we are working with these today. retail really slammed yesterday
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on the new tariffs the sell-off so far today not as celebrities who already have huge, motivated, engaged fan wao severe names like abercrombie, levi, bed bath and beyond are among the names positive on the buy these products >> social media has enabled session. it kind of makes sense, if you think about it, you have to go this, has it, nicole name by name >> yes, we are certainly living levi said the total annual china in an instagram world, and one imports less than 8% where celebrities and that number is moving even lower. influencers -- i'm very bullish the impact for levi, for instance, negligible of new on the long tail of micro tariffs. that makes sense for the shares to be higher by about 3% influences, so certainly instagram and social media enabled this and will continue back over to you. >> thank you to we are investors in a company turning to the nasdaq called cameo, and cameo is a underperforming today. tech is falls on the trade marketplace where you can buy fears. bertha coombs has more video shout-outs right now by celebrities and influencers. >> reporter: it may be the so that's another great one. poster child for the tariff wars >> how do you think about the the storage hardware maker risk involved with branding warned the sales will be down 5 something around one person? to 10% what if there's a celebrity the ceo said that due to the scandal or something tariff dispute, it's too big controversial that would be such a big turn-off to the audience and the consumer customers slashed their cap x by 30%.
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two days ago, apple reported >> yes, so when a celebrity or returning to gross influencer comes to us with an seeing improvement in china. idea, they come to us as a stock actually broke above $220 for the first time since october. founder, as an entrepreneur. now it's back in correction, we very much speak to them though off the lows today exactly as that. few chips moving off the lows. so as with any founder and entrepreneur, we need to do our research, do our diligence into apple supplier gorvo who they are as a person, what the semis on pace to snap a six the past looks like, what the future may look like week winning streak. we like to say history doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes down more than 6% this week. >> thank you very much for that, steve, a final so when you are working with thought on the markets someone like jessica alba or what are the key levels you're lady gaga, they have a strong past and that is predictive of watching >> 858 moving average in the cap the future we also like to think about is 2927. we broke through that. and that's how we broke on a brands that will stand the test of time and go on to be large, precipitous fashion. if people think this is going to be a may sell-off, we have to go successful private or public down 7% from the high that brands, and so that's often more brings you down to basically than just based on one around the 200 day moving personality alone. average 2790 it needs to be an entire so we're a world away from there. platform and a true brand. i was hoping that the market can >> very quickly, you just said really recapture its footing so public when are we going to actually see any of these companies go
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that people can maybe feel better in the weekend. public i cannot remember the last it looks like people will go consumer product ipo that we risk adjusted, come back on monday and take a look and had. probably sell their positions. >> you are right >> would you be buying there's so much appetite for these companies by the private >> probably. equity firms, by the strategics, i mean, i think that absent a credit issue, this is probably and that's why we're seeing just a buy in the dip opportunity like everything else has been i would be vigilant on the beats by dre acquired for multi credit and regeent and retail billion. so far we are seeing anastasia, and energy. venti, so many of these >> you mean staying away from them companies that stay owned by >> i would watch them carefully. ab accept a credit issue, it's strategics because they are probably a buying opportunity. creating so much value that's a big if. you have to be vigilant. but i am a big believe that we if you have a credit issue, that will see some public exits by will undermine confidence in the some of these companies as well. entire cycle here. >> nicole, thanks for joining so i would watch the etf, the us. trade and high yield >> thank you so much for having >> haven't seen it. me up next, your wall street >> yeah. spreads are super tight. look ahead the key things every investor but watch the energy space to needs the watch as we head into make sure it stays the case. >> thank you for joining us. the new trading week when "closing bell" comes have a great weekend after the break, we'll drill "closing bell" comes ♪ down further on the economic impact of the latest round of tariffs and how it could play ♪ into the feds' next potential keeping the night interesting, move thf commerce said the tariffs will inflict is all about setting the right tone.
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♪ greater pain on american lower carbs. businesses, farmers, workers, and consumers. we have an exclusive with the chamber ceo about which industry got hit the hardest. a check on the data tracker. the light beer you've been waiting for the u.s. trade deficit has arrived. corona premier. falling.3% in june to $55.2 billion. the deficit was about half billion more than expected factory orders up 6% in june versus estimates of.8% and jobs came in a little light on the headline number. better on wages. 3.7% unemployment. closing bellilbeig bk. wl rhtac hobbs & shaw.
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you want a war you've got one.
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[ "psa" by jay z ] we're never going to survive their firepower. we're going to need cars... and guns. oh i can handle that part. i got your back brother. and me yours. [ laughing ] [ screaming ] the u.s. adding 164,000 more jobs in july keeping the unemployment rate steady at 3.7% it comes amid looming concerns of a broader economic slow down, in part, due to escalading trade tensions with china. joining us now is jeffrey cleveland. jeffrey, how much do you think -- hi. good to see you. thank you for joining us how much do you think the new tariffs, 10% on the remaining
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$300 billion of largely consumer products coming into this country will affect economic growth >> well, i think the fears of a slow down are over played, sara. even the three month average people have been citing today, 140,000 jobs added during the month of july. i think that understates the growth keep in mind, we had a weak may number as soon as that falls out, the three month average will pop back up. we think it'll be closer to 170,000. it's a good number and it's enough to keep dow ward pressure on the unemployment rate over the second half of the year. i think everything is fine on that front forward looking indicators of kbrout is what we should focus on layoffs remain low that's a really key sign for thinking about where job growth and the economy goes from here and the nfib survey, sara, the question is asked what is the biggest problem for businesses it's finding quality labor that's at almost a 40-year high.
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it's not we're seeing slower job growth as trade and tariffs. we're ten years into the cycle, businesses are having a harder time finding people. i think it's what is going on here it's not a growth slow down story. so i'm on the optimistic side. >> does the follow up today make sense to you >> absolutely. the first thing i did this morning was not look at the jobs number, get on the phone with our boston office and talk to my colleagues there i said go find eric and offer to buy him a beer or maybe a soda. he's the most sensible person on the fomc now that eight slides or whatever it was, makes sense we are at 50 year lows on the unemployment rate. inflation is ripe. right on target about 2% you know, what is the big deal that we're worried about yes, there are risks from the trade front. yes, there are risks but they're not material risks
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as we model it, the impact on the u.s. economy from trade is still pretty minimal and so far the u.s. economy has been resilient. so kudos to eric. >> you could have bought him a beer three weeks ago when he told us he was going to descend. michael, take the other side of it. >> okay. well, i'm an optimist, too i drink a beer every once in awhile, as they say. i think you have a chance of an ism manufacturing print coming in below 50 on a sentiment basis next time around because of the tariff issue. you know, so, yes, the overall economy in aggregated strong but if you look at a grand year level encyclical side and you look at the chemical stocks and material stocks is doing, it's not showing a lot of growth. it's showing a bit of a question mark and that's -- >> how about cap x attracting from economic growth. >> we have not seen really substantial business investment. we've seen sam old story
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the consumer relatively strong there's not much of a question about that but the manufacturing side, which is the leading indicator, is the indicator that moves around that's not even so clear even from this report, which was spot on as i was saying earlier, now about 140,000 in terms of our monthly average. you go under 100,000, you're in contractions we're getting closer to that i'm not saying it's about to happen, but i don't think it's as clear cut as that completely because the manufacturing encyclical angle. >> jeffrey, your view loud and clear but how does it change your expectations for what the fed actually does when you observe the cut this week and the press conference afterwards. do you think they cut again? >> it's possible one or two more cuts i mean, i got to tell you, i think trump is playing the fed like a fiddle here they come out on wednesday and they tell us, hey, we're going to cut it's a cushion against uncertainty due to trade and tariffs. and lo and behold, within 24 or
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48 hours, what do we have? more uncertainty of trade and tariffs, which is a perverse feedback movement to lower possible interest rate cuts. i think the link is there. we have to be aware. we come back to, will fred, if the fed is cutting and we don't have a recession, what does it mean for the next 6 to 12 months for asset prices i think that's the situation we're in that's similar to 95 we had weak manufacturing in '59, if you recall it's similar to' 98 in the six months after those insurance cuts 1995 and 1998, the market did well high yield bonds, markets were up i think it's a framework to look through. if you think the fed will cut a couple more times, it's possible but it's going to happen in the face of continued growth, in my expectations. >> other descenders weighing in as we speak. esther george descented from the rate cut she said she descended to lower the target range, in my view,
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coming economic data warranted no change in the policy rate does acknowledge there are risks to the outlook and the economy emanating from trade policy, uncertainty, and weaker global activity she said she would be prepared to adjust policy if the incoming data point to weakening economy. we didn't get to the question whether they can fight weakness in the outlook coming from trade policy uncertainty with interest rates cuts. >> right they can find confidence they can find an erosion in confidence in that channel i think maybe, you know, the third mandate is they can fight financial excess you know, they can fight that financial conditions are too easy and it's fuelling too much speculative activity i think you can make that argument you've had too much easy money that resulted in too much debt. too much investment. that kind of thing but i think on the merits of the economy, you're going to continue to see fed expectations assume a cut in september and probably in one december, too.
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>> jeffrey, thank you for joining us. >> my pleasure coming up, wall street analysts changing their tune on a number of tech growth stocks following earnings we'll get the "word on the street." and yields on the 10 year hitting the lowest level since 2016 on pace since the biggest weekly drop since 2012. "closing bell" back after the sht eaorbrk. can i get some help. watch his head. ♪ i'm so happy. ♪ whatever they went through, they went through together. welcome guys. life well planned. see what a raymond james financial advisor can do for you. dprevagen is the number onemild memopharmacist-recommendedng?
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welcome back to "the closing bell." time for word on the street. a number of firms are adjusting ratings. evercore outing the price target to 64 after the company issued q3 guidance yesterday. i always criticize half hearted downgrades i must call it a resolute downgrade. it's gone from buy to sell not settling in between and the share price target $101 down to $64. so a big change in june from them. >> yeah. i guess not to encourage be i the sale of caf area, either. >> yeah. ubs upgrading survey monk to buy. it comes narrower than expected loss in the second quarter. ubs was bullish saying it had confidence that survey monkey will maintain more than 20% of
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revenue growth over the next five years pinterest getting an upgrade from deutsche bank after beating q2 revenue estimates deutsche bank up against price target for the cheompany by almt 52% from $26 to $40. bullish call they cite increased confidence with pinterest business is faster than expected they talked about disparities strong execution i think they said the best in the entire space they cover within that social media universe. >> yeah. it's growing sales in the rest of europe and montization. people had a question mark under the ipo in the first three or four months, they've delivered. >> what is your take here on we think about the social media-type stocks. is a smaller more niche player like this one to look at rather than having the focus of the political threats? >> that's an interesting take on it i mean, i think what is fascinating this whole group
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that, you know, super fast growing, secular growth, ipos that don't make money, you know, so they're not contributing to the s&p or to the market profit number, but they're growing like crazy and we're beginning to see their market expense come down we're beginning to see the cost of growing at this rate decline and that gives you a window to profitability. and a lot of them are doing it by going from just individuals and the consumer to larger enterprise deals making bigger deals. getting more seats involved. we saw from the other big players in the internet earlier in the month, really strong advertising revenue. really strong. so we've got a theme here, for sure it wasn't as evident in the first quarter for the earlier quarter that now advertising revenue from the internet is pretty strong. it's back. so i think that is an interesting space to think about. for folks who were dismissing them and saying they don't ernie
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money, i think it's worth looking at them. >> you're talking ipos that make a lot of revenue growth. >> yeah. the ipo space, most come from not making any profit at all they can be easily dismissed some are, within a year or two, can see a window to profitability. >> i would add, sara, it was one of the market dollings until the mid of 2018. since then might have plateaued. now trading aggressively lower a lot of questions whether they can monetize a lot of their businesses they've got a lot of market share in payments. but whether that -- >> being competitive. >> it was very competitive yeah the banks are kind of coming in and making it hard it the paypal and venn moes to make any money we've got just 28 minutes left until the close here. key things driving the markets today. te tech, energy, materials among the hardest hit.
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the jobs report largely matched expectations and the 10 year yield falling to the lowest level since 2016 hello. here what's is happening at this hour president trump said his pick for national intelligence director jon ratcliffe decided to withdraw from consideration citing unfair media coverage questions about ratcliffe's experience have dogged him since trump announced his candidacy five days ago. ratcliffe will remain in congress a majority of house democrats support opening an impeachment inquiry into president trump 118 of the 235 democrats are on board. it comes despite nancy pelosi urging the caucus to focus when the verdict on their assault case will be announce.
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trump tweeting "get home as soon as possible. it's not immediately clear whether they can actually leave sweden and six people were treated after fumes from a possible chemical spill at an amazon fulfillment center in lexington, kentucky today fire officials confirmed full hazmat response. 500 people were evacuated from the building your up to date. that's the news update this hour back downtown to you and see you next hour. >> sue, you didn't just say get back asap. he said get back asap after what has been a rocky week. >> absolutely. >> that's always the best. >> that's right. >> does asap rocky come home >> we don't know exactly. >> we don't know yet. >> yeah. we're not sure. >> i guethink kim kardashian got involved that helped. >> right. >> yeah. thank you. >> you got it. see you next hour. >> in between the trade tweets coming up, retail taking a hit on the back of president
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trump's tariff announcement. the fallout for footwear with the ceo of a leading industry group. my experience with usaa
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breaking news on cbs and
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viacom julia has the details. the "wall street journal" reporting that cbs and viacom reached a working agreement on the combined company's leadership team with the expectations that bob bakish will be the ceo and joe eianell. this report also saying that cbs finance chief would be the cfo of the campaignombined company. both shares are down less than a percent on the news. this all comes ahead of both company's reported earnings this coming thursday. my sources tell me there's expectations they'll announce a deal before then but working out the details of the financial agreement between those two companies. so more details on the management team as we await news of an official deal. back over to you. >> julia, thank you. also got some other breaking news european governments do have their pick for the next head of
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the imf. they are going with bulgaria do deal the executive board of the imf has to vote to approve her, but what needed to happen first is the europeans need to coalesce around one candidate there's kind of this informal agreement going back that the europeans pick of the head of the imf and the americans pick the head of the world bank then the executive board, which includes countries all over the world and emerging markets aren't a fan of this informal agreement can vote on her. she's the number two at the world bank she is the president of the world bank she has been outspoken is she the same profile christine? no they have to brief the g 20 and the g7 leaders about what the
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economy is doing and scold them and get involved if there's currency wars. she's seen as highly qualified and also having great relationships across europe. >> what is the procedure now is it likely she gets approved >> likely because the europeans pick and the europeans usually get the vote you'll hear china or india push back on the fact they do this but imf executive board will vote on it they have until october 4th and the u.s. has the biggest voting share at the imf big news in the bond year. 10 year yield falling more than 10% this week. on pace for the biggest weekly drop since june 2012 we'll get to rick santelli. >> it's so dramatic. maybe the biggest point this week isn't necessarily our market it's all global markets. they're all moving in similar fashion. let's look at what happened in bund yields. that's 10 year bunds
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30 year bunds. look at a canadian 10 year same dynamic there's going to be interesting support levels all the way down in our ten year. 1.75 maybe the best thing to watch where we came from, resistance up at 2.07 that's what you want to watch if we can retest the level. back to you. >> rick, quick question about the shape of the card. this 25 basis point cut we got this week. part of the rational many people said was to steepen the yield curve but that's a distant memory now, isn't it >> it absolutely is. you know, with down 22 in tens it means the curve flattened eight basis points 10s to 2s this week. it's more of a global pressure cooker that is making these moves. even though the fed had the best of intentions, their overnight right doesn't have enough leverage to swamp what is going on with the long end of the market throughout the globe. >> rick, thank you very much
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let's break it down further with katie stockton katie, first of all, you're looking at the key levels in the treasury yield market and as to whether this fallen yield will continue >>well, i think it will. obviously a down trend has been in place in yield terms for some time now with we saw the 10 year treasury yield dip below that. the psychological support level of 2%. the next major support is 1.4% based on the 2012/2016 lows. and, of course, at the same time you're seeing break outs and related etfs like the tlt or the 20 year fund that break out, to me, if confirmed next week, then we can, again, set our sights back on those levels from 2016, which are significantly higher, i think, in the realm of about 5 to 6% higher. >> what will that do to stocks how do you see the relationship unfolding? >> i'm watching the s&p 500 very
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closely. i like to look at them independently and things come together that way. and that kind of keeps me honest in the way i look at things. when i look at something like the spy or the spiders etf, still have an uptrend there on an intermediate term basis it's a short term pull back, in my opinion you're see the spy to blow the 50 day losing average. i think that's scarring people unfortuna unreasonably so i think as early as the middle of next week, we'll start to see some stabilization and downside momentum that will preserve the trend and lend us a buying opportunity in stocks. >> mike, when you look at the yield on the s&p 500, relative to what is available in the treasury market, does that argument resound louder today?
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>> i think it does absent the credit issue i really agree with what our guest said and so i think, yes, that you can certainly look at stocks as a better alternative because now the yield, you know, the s&p yield is basically the same as the 10 year treasury yield i will say, if you like the idea of buying a ten year treasury, consider buying utilities. because you can get a better yield, you can get better tax treatment. we think the fundamentals on utilities is pretty good so, you know, we like tech. >> have you ever heard anybody talk about the fundamentals. >> i said it on the show numerous times but no one cares. we overweighted them for about a year and a half. we know the strategy makes sense here we know secur growth is where the action is. on days like today, as you noted -- >> you were advocating for profitless ipos. >> yeah. well i'm beginning to see maybe --
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>> it's the same yield as utilities. it's the big banks. >> yeah. >> different story only because you've got a credit risk situation there and i just would rather not duplicate my risk i do fear that the credit issue could be the issue that takes us down and i just don't think it's worth the low growth prospects of the banks to do that. but others have a different view. >> we'll leave it there. katie stockton, thank you for joining us we have got just over 15 minutes left in trade. we're down 60 points or so in the dow. a nice recovery in the last 45 minutes of trade well off the lows. coming up, the ceo of the footwear distribute issers and retailers of america will join us we'll talk about the impact of new round of tariffs on chinese goods. how much more are your shoes going cost
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footwear stocks getting hit as president trump announces a new round of tariffs on china's goods coming into this country let's bring in matt priest, president and ceo of the footwear distributors and retailers of america the association supports nearly 500 companies and brands
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worldwide which represent 90 percent of u.s. footwear sales how much of it gets made in china? >> nearly 70%, sara. it's at 69% now. it's a number going down but still a big chunk of production still in china, to this day. >> so is it right to just then extrapolate that consumers will have to pay 10% more on all the shoes? >> yeah. each type of shoe is a little different. it's bake boot the cost of the goods as it crosses the border and gets multiplied up as the goods change hands we estimate that 10% rate on top of what we already pay it'll be $3 billion additional costs for american consumers annually. >> which companies are most exposed to this? >> the companies that are most exposed are those that service the working family here in the u.s. because a majority of the shoes sold at mass retail is made in china. you know, athletic companies and others are more diversified.
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they're out of china and more bigger percentages so that's where our biggest concern is the working american family with a modern income will be hit the most it's not just footwear it's electronics and paper products and apparel will the li the list goes on and on. it will be a death by a thousand cuts when we head to the holiday season. >> when the footwear industry talks about the, matt, they talk about the tariffs already in place or the duties already in place in the footwear business why is this such a taxed kind of industry why don't we pay less for sneakers >> that's a great question, sara one we've always scratched our heads about. next year is a 90th anniversary of smooth holly. we've been paying duties for years and at a time there used to be production here in the u.s. that is long moved. it's been 30 years since we had a mass production capability here in the united states. so what is left is basically
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income to the u.s. government. it's so hard to pry that out of the u.s. government's hands. that's what makes us concerned about additional tariffs under this trade war because they don't go away easily this could easily be a long-term duty and none of the democratic candidates on the other side are talking about removing it and everyone seems to think it's a foregone conclusion these will continue for some time. >> matt, thank you for joining us. >> thank you up next, we have your lost st0 nuchce ju 1mites left ju 1mites left the dow down 89 points always w. and you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade which isn't complicated. their tools make trading quicker and simpler. so you can take on the markets with confidence. don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today.
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black superman is good. very good. there's two of us and one of him. time to work as a team. [ screaming ] seven minutes until the close. dow down 100 points. michael, what is your last chance trade >> i would look at tech. i think that buying on the dip makes sense. i would seau tillties, as well we talked about both during the show >> why do you think you're seeing buying here into the close? >> i think people were not particularly off sides, number one. i think that's a big deal. when you measure investor conviction, their readiness to buy on dips however positioned they were, i think they weren't
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nearly off sides we already had may people were surprised by the fed. they were surprised by the trade issue in may i think that made positioning coming into august. >> if it just increases the case of more fed cut, that eases the pain we've seen it time and time again. there there's no doubt i think the u.s. has the wherewithal to respond up next, covering all the angles in the closing count down we'll see how we tally up what has been a brutal week for the has been a brutal week for the wall street and the bulls. (in dutch) it's happening..! just ok is not ok. especially when it comes to your network. at&t is america's best wireless network according to america's biggest test. now with 5g evolution. the first step to 5g. more for your thing. that's our thing.
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"closing bell" is sponsored by e trade. the original place to invest online three minutes left in today's session. time for the closing countdown sean cruz joins us what are you watching here we're down now under a hundred points 88 points. quite a rebound we've seen from earlier in the session. >> yeah, definitely looked like we got a little bit of a dip in the middle of the day. volumes came in strong in the last 10 minutes or so and that pushed us higher i think we're going to maybe make back some of those gains. we won't close out on lows today, for sure. i think investors don't want to hold too much risk going into the weekend. >> you've been looking at some of the tech companies that were reported earnings in the past week and they're associated moves. what is your take away >> if you look at the earnings
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in general, there's a pretty good surprise coming out of tech if you look at the average surprise versus what was put out there for us, tech has been surprising about 7.5% to the upside if you look at some of the companies you may have had on your watch list before, these past couple of days with the pull backs that have been focussed in the tech space because that's front and certainly for a lot of trade issues, you've gotten a little bit of a buying opportunity. look at names like microsoft korvo, they were able to guide higher you look for buying opportunities in the companies, some of the pullbacks get the initial shock from a tweet or some sort of headline get presented by an opportunity. >> thank you very much for joining us we'll send it over to bertha for what has been moving at the nasdaq >> the biggest moves is net up it warns the sales will be lower because some of the customers had pulled back in light of the china trade worries. we are seeing a little bit of buying here at the close
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mike and a few chip names are a little bit higher. some of the worst performers are companies that have exposure to the chinese consumer market like winn resorts those are the casino names because we're seeing a slow down in china that's the courtney. >> thank you very much you know, markets really taking risk off tone here today as we look at the final snapshot of the day. you've got utilities higher, you have rattle hireal estate higher that makes sense you have tech, as you wrapped. that's significantly lower energy lower we saw financials go positive, at least briefly consumer staples is another bright spot today. mcdonalds, coca-cola, and walmart higher and the dow hershey hitting an all-time high at the close interesting name to note take a look at the department stores holding up after suffering steep losses yesterday in the wake of that news about
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the tariffs. dow down 112 points. we were down 334 points at one point. we're going to closethe lows [ closing bell ] [ applause ] >> that's a wrap tough week for the bulls market closing down more than 3% on the week. welcome everyone to closing bell i'm sara eisen. >> i'm willfred frost. let's check how the markets close down 0.4 percent for the dow, s&p, and nasdaq having declines but we were well off the session lows, which was down a couple hundred points as whole we're staring at declines of 3% for the s&p 500.
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>> 4%, almost, for the nasdaq. joining us talk about the market today and the week what a crazy week it was chris wolf cio and jared woodyard and michael zinn is here. some headlines crossing the tape from president trump on trade. he's talking china he's talking europe. he says first on china a lot to turn things around. china has a lot to do to turn things around. he said he can increase the tariffs there. a headline here he said china's currency is going to hell. it has been weakening. >> it has been weakening it's 6.98 today. it's at 6.97 but a big move for the currency. >> on the weakness in their economy, theoretically, from the tariffs. he also says that auto tariffs
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against the eu are never off the table. he said that know doesn't get what he wants, he'll have no choice but maybe to put on auto tariffs. remember, they punted that decision for a few months into the fall on whether they were going to impose auto tariffs some questions today during the meet agreement opening up the exports from the u.s. to europe about whether it was a relations. >> yeah. slightly a step worse but this comment could there be interpreted as making sure he's not going soft but this isn't the same as upping the tariffs for china. >> no. just keeping those threats alive and well and that is really what has driven the market today. so let's talk about it chris, what do you make of the market action? we have the fed cut that is market expected. we have fuzzy guidance on the next cut new tariffs on china, and then the jobs report. what does that add up to >> it adds up for a messy market we call it the great divide.
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bond markets predicting recession, stock market thinks there's earnings story i think two things come out of it one, there's a salvo that happened on the trade side it looks like it will extend through the remainder of the year that's likely to have some interesting effects on corporate earnings and revenues and certain sectors of the u.s. market data is weakening a little bit pmi surveya bit of pressure. it will put pressure on revenue lines and keep inflation low i think where you get the trade issues a little bit like popcorn, you get the retreat to bonds. >> when we get further headlines like that from the president, does it increase your nervousness or part of the game. >> it's tough to trade a tweet it is. i mean, you can prepare for a calendar date or election. there's no preparation for a tweet. i think that's the argument for balance. you could have the each week come back and walk it back or have escalation, which is my guess. i think i agree.
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i think you probably will see rhetorical escalation from our president and have to wait and to see if the chinese send a delegation over. >> did the events of this week and the surprises of the week do anything to alter your view on where the markets are going the rest of the year >> in spite of everything that happened, you know, we're still on a contrary began basis bullish on equities. number one, there's not real sense of yoeuphoria in the markt so, you know, sentiment is not at all extreme the good news, and the second reason we want to trade higher with stocks is corporate's are still buying we're on pace for a record year of corporate linebacks annualizing $800 billion you want to get in front of the trade when it's rolling down the tracks as long as it continues the bid from corporate, it's hard to see how equities don't find their footing. >> what do you think >> i get that. that's more technical support. i think there's two countervailing arguments the margin story will come under
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pressure through the the rest of the year so excess margins to fund cash flow to buy back stock is tough. we've accumulated a lot of debt in the private i'm sorry the corporate sector what it is likely to do is recreate a reassessment -- or redeploy another part of your capital structure orr buy your competitors. >> president trump, as we mentioned, talking about auto tariffs said they're not off the table. our phil lebeau has a little bit more does it come as a surprise >> no, not at all. especially because earlier today and we'll hear from it a little bit, the president was at this event at the white house when it had to do with european not auto tariffs but european trade, and the president made what some were -- it was basically a joke. an offhand remark about putting tariffs on european vehicles here is what he had to say we'll explain why the european
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auto stocks are lower. >> we're working on a deal with the european union where we agree to pay a 25% tariff on all bmws come booing oing into our . i'm only kidding they started to get a little bit worried. >> they're not a little bit worried in europe or with european automakers, they're a lot worried. the exposure that europe has to the united states and the damage that a 25% tariff or really a sizable tariff of any amount could do to their business is real that's why the comments there and the comments he made on the south lawn, that's the reason within the last half hour, you saw the european auto stocks move lower they are exposed you've got the high end vehicles that not only come from europe, mainly sedans, but the engines and then the auto parts. and if there's a 20 or 25% tariff that is ultimately put on those, well, then that will have a huge impact in the bottom line for those companies.
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certainly raise the prices here in the united states. >> it comes off the back of a bad week, as well, for the stocks anyway. >> yeah. >> the broader dax was down 4.5% for the week thank you, phil lebeau. >> a lot of nervous laughter in the roomd of funny. >> it shows how nervous the stocks are. >> yeah. >> but certainly those exporters in germany suffering significantly from even when it's threats to china this week. that's hurt them much more than it hurt u.s. stocks. >> i guess more open economy they get caught in the middle of this trade war and we've seen that in their economies. we've seen it in their stock markets. >> you're so bullish on the market how do you navigate for the trade headlines? there's less sup side than we thought earlier this year. it's not a case of buying with both hands when you look at the data from
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trade, a lot of companies are able to pass through costs without getting hurt too bad whether it remains true if we raise tariffs in september is a different question we'll be at a more than 5% of u.s. imports, you know, applying tariffs. that's the highest since 1970s it was 1.5% when trump took office we don't want to down play this, but what we see is is a lot of investors who already alert to earnings risk. we've seen companies able to deal with this so far and a lot of our analysts at bank of america have moddelled this out but rather what happens in the short term in positioning. especially if you get escalation there's a big market sell and people sell what they have, not what they like to sell, what they own is tech >> the tech sector finished lower by 1.6% today. the biggest laggards in the sector include net app,
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hewlett-packard. what is your take whether or not it's overdone >>well, i think you have two issues the big one micro macro. so i think to the point made earlier, you can walk these things back. there's going to be a lot of, i would say noise around what top lines might look like, number one. the microstory is a little bit more naunsed you have a lot of supply chains running through asian companies. i see it in somee the biggest that the market is trying to excess i think those two pieces are playing out here for those companies that are most at risk and get them hurt more than they would be. >> within tech, jared, where do you go where are the buying
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opportunities? as a whole, you know, tech is what you own when nothing else is growing and you buy tech stock for the earnings growth. as long as we stay in this stagnant economic environment with more volatility i think people will continue to buy tech. >> and some of the names, you mentioned that baa resist draft it was individual earnings stories. not necessarily the china story and this sort of broader concern that starting to see early signs of slowing and tech spending and cloud spending and customer spending and i think that was the story that hit the group sisco, i know, ended a few% lower. are you seeing that, michael >> i think that's right. you can play in tech but you don't have to take a view on how the trade war. you don't have to be a chip. you don't have to be a china supply you can be in stuff with more domestic orientation it's great second quarter growth and play in the space without
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taking that view. >> to your point in terms of the fuel terms other than tech do you think investors are looking past the evaluation metrics because of those factors or are the evaluation metrics reasonable >> well, look where the 17 5 is trading. 17 times pe. that's well above the long-term average. 15 or so going back historically. what does it mean for the future looking for 7% earnings growth decline over the next five months analyst consensus is 5%. let's say the s&p 500 growth is 5% there's a 2800 a decent level not a great level. it's a construction for us it's not a catastrophe that's even with a big decline in earnings. i think investors are becoming more alert the argument there's tons of downside it's hard to make when they're not seeing huge buyings this year. >> how do you think about tech
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evaluations? it reminds me of the phrase -- what scares the market, it's an old saying is growth it continues to do well. from a bigger perspective, i think we'll continue to be re r rewarded in the market ic to the point made earlier, both subseque there's a number of companies that will be at risk should the tariff story go on longer. ones that are likely to benefit. so our view is we're going to be a lot more nuanced industry specific in the tech sector going for the balance of this year. >> it's all related. here is the quote from the net app ceo. our largest global enterprise acount have taken a more cautious view of the macro economic environment we see it in the cap x numbers we're seeing it spread.
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>> it's interesting link between it you pay for tech and every year there's a deflator in there. st it's cheaper year by year they can get a similar economic or similar productivity benefit. just broadly stated. so that's important when you look at the numbers, you have to adjust for the deflation adjust for how companies are managing acquisitions, as well it's banner are a of free money or cheap money a lot of m & a we had a jobs report today just shy of expectations 164,000 job gains. unemployment remained unchanged. total labor force hit a record high at 163.4 million. people are coming back into the labor force and getting paid a little bit more. but some weak spots in the reports 41,000 in terms of take backs, revisions over the last two months there were signs that the
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workweek was smaller, cutting back on manufacturing hours and pockets like retail that doesn't adds a lot of jobs >> i think the report was a little bit weak. headline good. revisions not great. the adjustments on a year over year basis not so good this is what happens when you get to the peak of the labor cycle. you're starting to squeeze a lot of people into the labor force it's aggregate not a bad thing. it's consumption driving u.s. economy. that said, i suspect one of two pathways here in the end of the year the first is probably some higher wage inflation and more broad based kind of outcome. we've only seen it in some industries nursing be one example the second, we might see some pull through from the trade issues i think we're starting to see some industries have layoffs we might get the balanced messy picture. >> do you think it could start the inflation across the
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economy? >> it would be lovely but it won't happen when you think about let's go back a few decades you've seen for every, you know, productivity went up six times what the average, you know, labor, you know, average worker has seen so 3.2% year over year, average hourly earnings is nothing to get excited about. people haven't gone very far so it's the labor market is rolling over and this is the best we got in terms of wages, you won't see, you know, long business cycle with a lot of room for consumption to drive growth another thing, people ask me what is it would cause a shift in trade policy. the argument is if you see jobless claims strike in key 2020 battle ground states, it will put a lot of pressure on the president. we've been monitoring this recently what we're seeing a decline in the key battle ground states pennsylvania, wisconsin, michigan, places like that our argument would be that gives
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more time for the president to pursue, you know, a more aggressive trade policy, as long as there's no pressure in the job market in those key states. >> we will leave it there. thank you very much. still to come on "closing bell." tom donahue talks with us exclusively. hawaiian airlines has been badly underperforming the rivals this year. whether the strong dollar and escalading tdearilcha lleep pressuring the stock
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a few consumer names topping the list of companies with the most revenue exposure to china we're talking about apple, tiffany, nike. how will a new round of tariffs impact business and the consumer in this country? tom donahue, president of u.s. chamber of commerce joins us now in an exclusive interview. welcome. thank you for joining us how do you think about the impact of these new tariffs? >> well, first of all, i'm glad to be here the impact of the proposed new tariffs would be significant it would be significant in terms
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of if americans kept buying all chinese goods. it would cost $30 billion for 300 billion worth of tariffs if americans bought from others, that number would be down and the trade with china would be further shrinking. there's also the question of what will china do they're not traditionally people that sit still they have a lot of options to add pain political implication in the short term and the long-term. long-term being the presidential race and that is would be affected by a move into a recession in the short term. it affects the markets and affects the basic mentality of
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how people are feeling about their company and their country. this is something we hope people find the solution to before we get to the september deadline. >> tom, what would you say that the first batch of tariffs ended up having less effect than perhaps originally feared and is there a chance this next batch could play out in a similar way? >> i think it's clear in recent weeks there's been more and more noise than i'm hearing from our members abou a price there are people over at the white house that every week have to remind everybody that china is paying for are the tariffs or mexico was paying for the tariffs. that's a good idea but it's not true we have to understand that we
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take that money out of our economy. if you buy a million dollars worth of steel that has a tariff on it, you pay the government of the united states a quarter of a million dollars. this has an effect i believe the feeling and the noise even among the bigger companies is getting more pronounced and little companies who have the same tariff requirement it's more pronounced and don't forget then what do the companies do jack the prices so it's going on the consumer, as well. all of which affects the economy. >> we talked a number of times i know '02 sort of on board with the idea that the administration should go after china for intellectual property theft and forced technology transfer and level the playing field for american business over there so it's not tariffs what then?
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>> first, let me say i support the administration's efforts to level the playing field with china who, as we know, are pretty good at taking people's intellectual property and demanding that they put up their technology in joint ventures and keeping us out of many of the business activities in china and we were not very vocal when the president used some early tariffs to get the chinese attention and i believe that's a special case that's fine. what i'm concerned about now is that if you're really talking about going to all of the chinese exports to the united states which 300 billion would be the incremental amount.
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if you're talking about, as i heard from people in the white house, if this doesn't work, we make the tariff much higher. i think to remember it'll have a pronounced effect on the psychology around the american economy and on the economy it is going to spur the chinese to a more vigorous set of actions. if not tariffs, what serious negotiation. using the relationships that are being established and the costs that are being placed on both economies. i want to tell you, question get it a deal with china for one fundamental reason we both, both countries have serious things that we need from the other, which is absolutely the best basis for any agreement. >> when you see, tom, the jobs number this morning, though, do you not feel that the u.s.
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economy maybe has taken some hit from tariffs so far but continuing fairly strongly, particularly things like the domestic u.s. consumer does that not give some leeway for the president to push harder >> i think the job numbers are much better than they were remember, also, we have 8 million jobs, approximately, that we can't find workers for demographics are destiny, and we need to work on that in this country. that's helping us but when you look at the debt levels that the consumers have, when you look at the challenges that the companies are facing, which was going to cause some more price increases, and, guys, i've said three times and i hope you'll focus on this, when you wonder what chinese leaders are going to do to react to this proposal or to its implementation, i think we might want to go back
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and have a serious conversation what each of us need and figure out how to support a much more positive relationship. not easy to do hard to achieve, but we have the ultimate negotiator, right >> i'm just curious if you have taken your protest of the latest proposed tariffs to the white house and what your relationship is with the administration right now. president trump was questioning the chamber of commerce's ultimate goal. what is the relationship have you voiced the concern? >> well, it's a sac official lamb our relationship with the white house is fine. we serve on many of their job creation task forces we work with them on a lot of
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things they're getting done and budgets and defense activities it's a very good relationship. we absolutely have some serious difference of opinion on the effect of some of the things that are going on, particularly with the application and the threat of the application of tariffs. we've been around a long time with china we've been around a long time with the nafta deal, which i want to congratulate the white house on doing a good job on now our deal is to get it moved through the congress we will. we have the votes to do that we need more to cover and protect some of the people that are going to vote for us and lighthizer and nancy pelosi are working on a few issues we agree have to be fixed i think that'll be done this month. and i feel pretty good about that i think our relationship with the white house is fine. it's a different kind of relationship so we have a different kind of relationship
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but he's the president of the united states. i run the chamber of commerce. we both got a job to do and we have a country to defend and we're going to work really hard on it. >> tom donahue, thank you very much for joining us. >> thank you look forward to seeing you again soon still to come on "the closing bell" investing like a celebrity. whether the consumer facing brands would be hit by the china brands would be hit by the china trade tariffs.e is what teamwork is all about. you can't do everything yourself. you need someone to guide you and help you make those tough decisions, that's morgan stanley. they're industry leaders, but the most important thing is they want to do it the right way. i'm really excited to be part of the morgan stanley team. i'm justin rose. we are morgan stanley.
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time for cnbc news update. >> hello new york city's mayor bill de blasio hailing a judge's recommendation to fire the new york city police officer accused of united statesing a cho-- accd of using a choke hold in the death of eric garner. >> there's finally been a trial. there's actually been a decision it is a fair and impartial process. again, this is only a beginning of restoring people's faith. >> workers have begun dismantling an exhaust stack at fukushima nuclear plant along with removing nuclear fuel and clearing debris. the next stage is a key part of the plan decades long
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decommissioning process. and on a lighter note, oscar mayer is introducing a limited edition ice dog sandwich made with hot dog ice cream, spicy mustard ice cream, and cookie bun if you have a craving for that, the weiner mobile will be in new york city the week of august 12th now full disclosure, guys. i know full disslclosure, my nephew mitch drives the weinermobile >> an amazing claim to fame. >> i always do disclosures but never thought it would be about the weinermobile. >> you can be the first person in new york to try the hot dog ice cream. >> i don't know. maybe we'll him drive it to the new york stock exchange. you can try it first. >> actually, i'm not sure i want the ice cream. i want to see your nephew.
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>> i want to see the mustard one. kind of savory. >> it's like wasabi ice cream. >> i'm into that. >> have a great weekend. >> you, too. >> still it to come on "closing bell" ceo for hawaiian airlines whether his company is feeling any tensions from china. looking how the airline industry is trying to close the gender gap in the sky. jane >> reporter: man that sue herrera family only 6% of pilots are women. up in the air now you should be able to see her. we'll talk to one of the top flight instructors in the country who is giving a lesson at o"t csi b th'sn helongell" coming bac
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welcome back as the global need for pilots continues to grow, the airline industry is making a big push to recruit more and train more women flyers we are live in anchorage with one of the top flight instructors in the country
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jane >> reporter: hey, sara yeah the flight instructors is a female the student is not they're both above me right now. you should be able to see them on the left is jamie patterson-sims who owns sky trek alaska named the best flight school in the united states. on the right is her student. we know there's a shortage all the airlines are trying to make the pitch to women. if you can hear me, jamie, attracting men to flying has never seemed to be the problem what will it take to get more women? >> oh, you know, i think there should be a bunch of outreach other women pilots should be advocating for more females to get in there the stem professions would be an awesome, great start this is a wonderful career for a woman in flexible hours, adventures, high paying, and it's fun so if you're into stuff like
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that, it's a great opportunity for a woman. >> jamie, thank you. have fun she's got wild stories about flying over alaska. >> thank you. >> guys, there is no gender pay gap at the airlines. we have more on this at, including an interview with the first captain at american airlines and she was made famous in the broadway hit. >> thank you great coverage. >> how did they get her microphone to work in the air? >> i don't know. it was very clear. it was very clear. >> exactly. >> and now speaking of pilots and flying hawaiian airlines reporting its earnings earlier this week meeting the top and bottom line. stocks down 30% over the last year it's up 4.4% today let's discuss a little bit further with the ceo who joins us now peter ingram.
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thaump f thank you very much for joining us. >> my pleasure good to be with you. >> you beat expectations, as we said, on both lines. congratulations for that and the share price reaction sits. but you still have a decline year over year in terms of earnings down some 17%. what is the cause for that decline over the last 12 months? >> well, i think the big story and people are well aware of this, at this point, we've got a very different competitive environment over the last 18 months in hawaii including our north america to hawaii roots where we've seen about 17% more capacity come into the market by the industry since the beginning of 2018. we've been part of that. we've been adding capacity because we see opportunity to grow there and we've seen some competitive capacity in other parts of our business. so our results overall remain very solid, but we are down from
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the peak financial performance of 2016/2017. >> beyond the competition, peter, that you're dealing with, are you seeing any impact on tourism to hawaii from the u.s./china trade spot? i know it's a popular destination for people in asia >> yeah. tourism demand to hawaii remains very strong. china to hawaii is a relatively small part of the market today and we don't currently serve one
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