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tv   Squawk Alley  CNBC  August 8, 2019 11:00am-12:00pm EDT

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you. good friday morning! it is -- it's thursday morning it's thursday morning. it's 8:00 a.m. at roku headquarters in los gatos, california it's 11:00 a.m. here on wall street and "squawk alley" is live ♪
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♪ well, good thursday morning and welcome to "squawk alley." i'm morgan brennan with david faber and mike santoli, live from post 9 here on the floor of the new york stock exchange. carl and jon are both off this morning. stocks are staging a recovery today. s&p coming off its largest comeback since december of last year on pace for its third straight day in the green, but is today's rally sustainable or is more volatility ahead? key question for investors joining us now is wells fargo asset management multi-asset strategist, brian jacobson, and invesco, vice chair of investments, krishna mumani. krishna, i'll start with you what do you think? more volatility ahead? >> i think volatility is to be expected in a stock market that's dealing with lots of issues but at the end of the day, the
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real question is, where do we go from here? and as the economy stabilizes in the second half and trade issues don't get exacerbated further, the markets are probably going higher rather than meaningfully lower. >> i want to dig into that a little bit more, but brian, first, your thoughts on the markets today given all the action we've had over the last couple of sessions >> it's been quite the ride, hasn't it? and i think this shows that the best trade you can put on in volatile markets is to be long patience sometimes that's the best defensive trade, because you can just kind of try to ride things out if there hasn't been a significant change in the fundamentals on my team, we just had our tactical trade council meeting where we discuss our qualitative views, and we were looking at almost overbought conditions in the treasury market, when we saw the ten-year treasury break below 1.6%, at least on a short-term basis but more for the longer term, especially on the stock market, we are still a little concerned about a little bit too much optimism built into earnings
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estimates for the balance of the year, if not going into 2020 we think that as krishna said, we'll probably see a little bit of stabilization in the economic numbers, but i'm not sure if the economic numbers are going to translate into really robust earnings per share growth for s&p 500 companies. >> krishna, when you look at the turnaround we saw yesterday in equi equities, it was timed with the turnaround we saw in treasury yields both went higher, right? so the two have been moving together you could make the same argument again today. what are the bond markets telling us and how closely correlated are they right now? >> so the drivers were two things one was the most important thing was a stabilization of the yuan. effectively, that basically sent domestics to the markets that the act or acting as rational actors, as opposed to making things far worse the treasury market is being buffeted by all sorts of flows that -- haven flows, flows coming in from overseas. but don't read too much into what the ten-year treasury level
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is telling you because there's another part of the bond market t, the credit markets, that are far from being as worried as what you would include out of the treasury levels credit spreads have widened some, but they are nowhere close to any extreme levels. and if you look at the treasury markets, they have been at extremes for quite some time now. >> ryan, when you mention that you're not sure if the forward-looking earnings estimates are going to be met, maybe there's a little bit of optimism in the consensus, i guess, going into the fourth quarter and first quarter of next year when there's supposed to be a rebound, do you think the market is priced right now based on those forecasts or i guess i'm trying to get at the difference between what the market implies about the growth outlook for corporate profits and perhaps what analysts are looking for. >> yeah, that's a very good point. yeah, sometimes the sell-side analysts, what you get with the consensus numbers aren't exactly reflective of maybe what traders and investors are actually setting prices based on. if you had asked me last week
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when the s&p 500 was above 3,000, i would have said that i think the market was pricing things pretty much in line with what those consensus estimates are. now that we've gotten a little bit of a downdraft here, a little bit of a sell-off, maybe a little bit less so i mean, from a valuation perspective, really, you know, 17 to 18 times earnings, for the next 12 months' earnings isn't outside the realm of reasonable. but i think that it is going to be maybe a more increased volatility for the balance of the year, as a result of maybe shifting expectations, of what the growth projectry of earnings actually looks like for s&p 500 companies. we actually like more midcap stocks, as opposed to large-cap stocks in this type of environment. i think the valuations are a little bit more reasonable in that space >> i think the point of our earnings growth is an important one. the likelihood that we have spectacular earnings growth is probably small having said that, should the
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economic momentum improve in the second half, as i expect, things are going to be somewhat better than what most people -- at least the top-down people are thinking as opposed to the bottom-up people >> why do you think the economic situation is going to improve? >> it's going to improve because interest rate environment is meaningfully better than what it was last year. so the fed is not tightening overall, interest rate levels are significantly lower. that greases the wheels of stabilization, perhaps better growth outlook than what most people expect >> brian krishna, thanks for joining us today it's also been a wild week, as we've just sort of alluded to for rates this year. our next guest says that the fed needs to lower rates by 50 basis points, immediately! joining us now is jeremy siegel. jeremy, why 50 basis points immediately? >> well, yesterday morning, we had the fed funds rate 50 basis points above the ten-year treasury that is crazy. that inversion is very steep
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you know, it should be 50 basis points below the ten-year treasury fed funds rate now is the highest administered rate in the developed world, of any maturity secondly, i don't think the economy is all that strong, and that's before these trade disturbances recent data looks like second quarter, instead of being 2.1%, is going to be under 2 experts say this quarter looks under 2% i didn't think that employment report that we had last friday was really all that strong hours worked, et cetera. i'm not talking about recession. i don't see a recession. i see a meaningful slowdown. and probably, i think, another good reason why the fed should move, if the fed moved down 50 basis points, trump would have no one to blame for an economic slowdown, except his trade policy he couldn't pin the blame on jay
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powell it takes that out of the equation so in a way, it will put pressure on him, got to make a deal with china. it may not be his ideal deal, but the market wants a deal. and i think he has to move forward on that. >> well, that's a big assumption in terms of the president and who he would blame or not. we've got 25 basis points a week ago, jeremy, and he's tweeted almost every day, attacking the fed, including this morning, saying, of course, and linking it to the stronger than what he would like to see dollar you know -- >> yeah, why -- i thought -- i thought that they should go down 50 n now, i was on cnbc and said, they're only going to go down 25 but i thought, actually, the turn structure, other rates, and this is before these trade disturbances don't forget, i mean, capital spending was already weak in the second quarter
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this added uncertainty is not going to do anything for the economy. and we really may, if this trade disturbances continue, we may have a third quarter in the low 1%, which i think is too much of a slowdown >> yeah. i do wonder, though. i mean, the impact of even further lowering rates i mean, look at europe right now. look at the world, $15 trillion in sovereign debt that's negative that doesn't seem to be helping their economies too much >> yeah, but their -- no, don't forget, i'm not talking about moving down to zero, i'mtalkin about maybe moving into the -- yeah >> i know, i know. >> -- into the 1.5 range, which really approximates what our gdp growth is right there. europe is between 0 and 1 with a lot of other labor problems and problems that are facing them. also, we have this report out of pimco, something i've been saying for a long time there's a lot of demographic
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factors that are influencing these interest rates the aging of the population is one of those factors and it is really advanced in japan and in europe more than the united states. that is a big factor that more and more economists believe is one of the long-term factors that are pushing interest rates lower. so that's another reason why europe has lower interest rates than the united states and japan was first to get there you know, 10, 15 years ago so, you know, these are even beyond central bank situations a central bank should not fight it by trying to get interest rates back up to where they were in the '90s or 2000s we live in a very, very different world today than we did back then. >> professor, i wonder why you think that the administration needs to get a trade deal by 2020 we have a number of folks who come on and say that they believe that the administration needs to make that happen before the election next year
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i'm not so convinced and i think part of the reason is because we're sitting at this point in time, it's a point in time in history that books are going to be written about and that folks in the future are going to look at and say, you know, this is an example of what not to do with policy. or if we do get an historical trade deal or an historic trade deal, that this is what to do with policy. and i just can't help but think this that's really what the president is gunning for right now, rather than making sure markets continue to move towards record highs >> well, you know, my feeling is that the only chance trump has for re-election is a good economy and a good stock market. i mean, in all the polls given, it's the only thing he has had net positive results on. so if he wants to be real. i mean, he says, i'm going to give up re-election and go for this, that's one thing i don't think that's in his equation and look at what happened with the nafta.
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i mean, really, this u.s./mexican trade deal isn't all that much different. certainly is not a revolutionary new trade deal he went with that. i think, you know, he's going to get the best thing he can. but in the end, i think he's going to make a deal with the chinese to get the economy back on track by the summer of 2020 i think that's his only re-election strategy that i think will work for him. >> all right finally, professor i think, what does all of this do to your outlook in terms of the stock market for the remainder of the year? >> you know, it is -- first of all, i do think estimates in the first quarter are too high in 2020 of course, it's always too high. we always sort of bring them down but with gdp in the 1% range, you know, people have, you know, 8, 10, 12% estimates of 2020 going forward. i don't see how that happens a muted stock market -- listen, if we get that trade deal, you
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know, i said we'd be up 5%, 5% ago. so we would be up 10, 12%, maybe, from where we are today a continued trade war that steepens there, i don't see a higher stock market by year's end. >> professor, always appreciate it thank you. got it thank you for jeremy siegel joining us >> thank you >> you're welcome. take a look at shares of roku this morning, up 21%. at a new high after a revenue beat, after the close yesterday and a surge in new subscribers by the way, in may, the last earnings report roku had also up more than 20% on that day. the stock went vertical and built from there so roku's ceo thanony wood is with us exclusively on the other side of this break stay here. so, every day, we put our latest technology and unrivaled network to work. the united states postal service makes more e-commerce deliveries to homes than anyone else in the country. i'm not really a, i thought wall street guy.ns.
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welcome back to "squawk alley. roku, one of the biggest movers in today's market action, it's up 21% right now after delivering strong q2 results and increasing its outlook for the rest of the year joining us now exclusively is roku founder and ceo, anthony wood anthony, thanks for joining us today. >> thank you it's good to be here >> it's amazing, we got this news, we got the details earlier this week about the disney bundle, the pricing for it the fact that the hulu component of it is going to be ad supported. it struck something of a debate about how much demand is actually going to be out there from ott customers to take on some of these ad-supported networks versus paying for
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subscriptions. we look at your earnings, though, and it would seem, there's quite a bit of demand out there. how are you thinking about that landscape? ad-supported versus subscription and what it means for roku >> yeah, well, i think it's great that there's so much new content coming to streaming. roku was founded on the belief that all tv would be streamed. and we're really starting to see that you know, roku is an essentially partner for these streaming companies. we've built a platform that they can use to distribute their content to millions of commerce. we've built very sophisticated tools to help them engage customers, build subscriber bases, and retain customers. so, you know, i think it's great and this is kind of what we expected in the early -- and it's still the early days of streaming. you know, we've just passed 30 million active accounts, a great new milestone for us, but there's a billion tvs worldwide. so streaming is really just starting >> yeah, just to put that one in
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perspective. the fact that we do have quite a number of services poised to launch both before the end of this year and into next, how much of a tail wind would that be for roku? >> well, i think there's a lot of things that are driving roku's growth. the switch to streaming, the rise of smart tvs, all the new content that's coming onboard, the better value that it offers customers, the choice it offers customers. so, you know, i think, you know, new streaming services from disney, apple, and others are an important part of the growth industry but what you would expect as the tv industry transitions away from linear it hatv and into streaming. >> anthony, what has to happen for you to continue to succeed in this world, if, in fact, this feature or this functionality does get embedded in tvs in general. i mean, what place do you have way down the road as we evolve towards that
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>> yeah, well, we're one of the leaders in that transition we licensed our screening platform to tv companies in fact, more than one in three smart tvs sold in the united states are powered by the roku software stack, our operating system that's the future we believe strongly in that all tvs will ship with a tv operating system built in and we're the number one tv operating system. that lead is growing there's a great chart in our shareholder letter from strategy analytics that shows how we're number one in the u.s. and how that lead is actually widening and smart tvs are a big part of that anthony, you were asked this on the call and you didn't really answer the question, that a lot of those tvs are made by the likes of tcl in china, they're manufactured in china. september 1st, we're going to get a 10% tariff on those. are you concerned at all about how that is going to potentially impact your business >> you know, so tariffs, it's
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hard to predict what's going to happen exactly with tariffs. there's a lot of variables still in play. we and our partners are taking steps to mitigate the short-term impact of tariffs, including relocating manufacturing but for us, the big picture -- and our tv partners build not just the china, they build around the world but for us, the big picture really is that anything that happens with short-term tariffs doesn't impact the long-term potential of our business, which is huge, as the world shifts to streaming. >> right you almost, word for word, said the exact same thing on the conference call. is there anymore you can give us, you really don't have an impact on your business or you're saying it's going to have a short-term impact? >> it's very complicated there are a lot of variables it's hard to predict if there will be a short-term impact. it could affect our future results. in some way, but in the
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long-term, skprn in the midterm, i don't think it's -- it doesn't impact the size or the opportunity or the fact that our strategy is working and people are going to watch tv, no matter what happens >> no, they are. and nobody questions your strategy it's worked extraordinarily well, given, we can see it reflected in your stock price. but what about coming competition from the likes of google and amazon, with their voice-controlled tv systems also be included on the original manufacturing of the tv. is that a threat to you? >> we have an interesting relationship with companies like amazon they're a great partner for ours we carry amazon prime video on our platform we're a popular app and a big distributor for them we sell lots of products on amazon.com but we do compete with them in areas like fire it have. we've been competing these large companies for years, for our entire existence we've been very successful you know, we build the only purpose-built operating system
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for tv these other companies are recording their mobile operating systems. and you can see that in our results. and you can see that in the market share chart, for example, the one we included in our shareholder letter, which shows we're way ahead of our nearest competitor and that lead actually is growing. >> anthony, whether it's through the roku channel or whether it's through these premium subscriptions and the fact that you aggregate all of this content and all of these services for users that come through roku, what is the most popular thing or the most popular service? >> the most popular service is netflix. it's by far the leader there are lots of other services that are very popular and consumers love and free content is the fastest growing area there's a lot of discussion about all these new subscription services and i'm sure that they'll be successful. but actually, the most popular, fastest-growing category is free ad add-supported content and the roku channel is very popular in
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that area. >> which brings us back full circle anthony wood of roku, thanks for joining us today stock is up more than 20% after better than expected earnings. up since 300% since the start of the year all right, getting a check on where we stand across the major averages trading just about the highs of the day. the s&p 500 up 1.2%. it's now down less than a half a percent for the week the nasdaq outperforming again the dow up 217 we're going back essentially to where we traded at the lows last friday so obviously, a continued bounce in effect. european markets set to close in a few minutes. a live report on today's action overseas is next key portfolio e. all in one place. because when it's decision time... you need decision tech. only from fidelity.
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european markets about to close. seema mody joining us now with a breakdown of today's action. >> european stocks rebounding, trying to eke out a second straight day of gains. that better than expected china trade data seems to be calming markets for now, and that's steadying interest rate s as wel
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with european bond yields recovering a bit here. but france, germany, and switzerland all still firmly in negative territory now, despite the gains today, the european stock index still underperforming u.s. stocks during what has been a pretty rocky week for global equities the s&p 500 down about 0.5%. china, meanwhile, down 2.6%. one major industrial in germany making news today. that is the lighting company rejecting a takeover offer from bain capital and carlyle just last week, they reported a larger than expected loss, adding it saw no signs of short-term recovery. it's also wort noting that they had 20% of revenues last year coming from china. that stock is down 27% from its highs hit back in november of last year. morgan, back to you. >> seema mody, thank you let's get over to sue herrera for a news update. >> hello, everyone
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here's what's happening at this hour a magnitude 6.0 earthquake caused minor damage in northeastern taiwan early this morning, as that island braces for the arrival of a severe typhoon. luckily, no injuries or deaths were reported. workers have started decontaminating some paris schools, which tested at unsafe levels of lead following the blaze at the notre dame cathedral. this is all part of efforts to protect children from the risks of lead poisoning. the work is expected to be completed before school begins in september american airlines is expanding its international routes starting next summer. it includes nonstop service to casa blanca from philadelphia and routes from chicago to eastern europe and dallas to teleaviva. and field of dreams will become a big league reality on august 13th, 2020. that's when the 1989 baseball movie starring kevin costner will spring into life in the iowa cornfields. the new york yankees will play the chicago white sox in a temporary 8,000-seat ballpark
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where that classic film was shot you're up to date. that's the news update this hour back downtown to you guys. morgan >> how excited are you two baseball fans about that possibility? >> it's an interesting gimmick, i'll have to say >> gimmick?! >> i'm more excited by the mets winning 13 out of 14 >> well, yes, that's true. >> touche, the mets' fan says over here. sue herrera, thank up next, lyft shares are up after a strong quarter with uber results looming after the bell today, we're going to take you through the ride hailers, next meantime, s&p coming off its largest comeback since december of last year here are the names that are leading the index higher this morning again. advanced micro, symantec, and booking holdings we're back in less than three. but we're also a company that controls hiv, fights cancer, repairs shattered bones, relieves depression,
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i'm scott wapner the billionaire investor carl icahn joins us for an exclusive interview. he's against the anadarko deal, still pushing for board seats. we'll get his thoughts on what his moves might be next. we'll discuss the markets, the trade war, where he's placing his latest bets. plus, a jim lebenthal soaring today. and our investment committee picking over the big names that got hammered over the last week. many are rebounding, so are they buying morgan, back to you. >> you know what, scott, i'm just going to jump in here for a second it is worth noting the anadarko
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deal for oxy has closed just moments ago, $55 billion including debt it will be very interesting to hear from carl as he tries to get those four board seats he's got the 20% and then has to get 50.1%. he hated that buffett deal hated it, where they got the 8%. >> he did. >> the 8% coupon >> he said at the time, david, and you'll probably recall the language that he used was that the oxy ceo, in karl's words, got taken to the cleaners by buffett because of the favorable warrants that buffett got. and carl's actor was that he knew of somebody else who would have done the financing without having to get the warntrants. i'm going to ask him today who that was if we can learn anything on that and what he does next. if there's some sort of an agreement he can reach with the company to get one or two board seats. maybe the company wants to do that to try to get carl to go away we'll see. you said, i have the press release right here, david. moments ago, literally, they announced the closing of the
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deal not a surprise in any way, shape, or form, as you know. anadarko shareholders wanted this to happen and they voted 99% of them voted in favor of it so looking forward to our conversation with carl >> as we all are scott, thank you >> thanks, david well, meantime, shares of lyft are surging this morning after posting positive q2 results. uber coming after the bell today and those shares are also higher deirdre bosa is in san francisco with a report on the major ride hailers. >> morgan, lyft certainly setting the bar high with its results. it's still losing an enormous amount of money, but it did show wall street that it gained riders faster than expected and those riders are paying more on top of that, it is shelling out less on sales and marketing as the price war with uber eases. most importantly, though, lyft told investors that it will get to profitability and it will get there sooner than even they expected it will even give investors an actual break-even date later this year. so, the big question now is, how does this all play out for uber
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tonight when it reports? well, what lyft calls healthier market dynamics, ie, less competition on price, more competition on brand and products, should be good for uber, too, since the u.s. market is a duopolduopoly. and that's why you might be seeing uber stock popping today. but uber operates in other markets like in latin america and india, which may not be as healthy in terms of price wars with rivals. and food delivery with uber eats operates that is a space that still has many well-capitalized competitors. now, for uber, the losses this quarter, will be eye popping 3.4 billion, largely because it includes costs associated with its ipo. research is expected at $3.3 billion, representing growth of 20% year over year lyft's revenue growth, that came in above 70% this past quarter uber has not so far been willing to tell investors when it would start stemming its losses. and guys, really given all the talk of profitability and all the optimism around that on lyft's call last night, uber may
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have to give the street more tonight. back to you. >> deirdre, thank you. we know you're going to be bringing us those numbers and headlines as we get them later lyft and uber are two of 103 ipos year-to-date, 45 of which are outperforming the s&p so far in 2019, led by the likes of beyond meat, zoom video, crowd strike and pinterest all right, meantime, plenty of movers to get to in media and tech this morning. shares of roku, which is less than two years removed from its ipo surging on a revenue beat while disney is coming off a session that saw it turn the dow negative just on its own and one of our next guests says google parent alphabet should spin off youtube, a business she says would be worth $140 billion on its own so for more on the current media and tech landscape, let's bring in busy insiders henry blodgett and laura martin from needham. thanks to you both laura, start with you. so you have, first of all, roku is your top pick for this year
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so obviously, working out really well at the same time, the market seems to be giving disney a lot of credit. at the same time, netflix, whatever you think the valuation implies about ultimate subscriber growth there, does the market have it right is there room for all of these players in there >> so i would call roku the winning a regawin winning aggregator you can't launch warner brothers plus without going to roku, because they're reaching 30% of the connected households so that gives them pricing power against those juggernauts. netflix versus disney, i think, is the right comp, because netflix just raised price and disney is now saying they're going to do a $12.99 bundle for hue lu pllu plus, so three servr $14 and four streams from netflix is now $14 after the price increase to me, that feels like bundling is a smart idea. i think free services feels like
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a better value i think what we're going to get for the first time in over the top is marketing juggernauts have arrived guys who market things for a living and that is what disney does better than any company in the media space in my opinion. >> so does that slow netflix growth in a significant way in your opinion >> i think it takes netflix growth negative in a significant way in the u.s >> you do? >> i do. >> and over what period of time? disney is obviously coming out, fairly soon now -- >> november 12th >> yeah. does it happen almost immediately? they're going to have to spend a lot of money at disney, by the way, to your point in terms of get everything ready and the market goes along with it? >> so bob iger has said he wants 90% awareness by the time they launch on november 12th. and to do that, that means they're putting in every single theme park, they're buying billboards, they're going on abc, which they own. he said it was the most important media launch initiative since he's been there. he got there in 2005 >> henry -- >> i'll take the other side. >> a very bold view.
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it's going to kill netflix netflix is the brand in this space. they have an enormous content. they can continue to defend themselves disney will have all sorts of friction between the different units. do we cannibalize the sbrebl fees we're making on cable by putting it here. it's going to be all sorts of conflicts. disney will do well, but netflix is in a great position >> but do we need to be talking about it as a pie that gets carved up? you have both, it's 30 bucks a month. a lot of people are going to get both >> people are not going to have 27 subscriptions there's no way there will be a few big ones disney certainly has the heft to do it, especially if they bundle, which they're talking about which makes a lot of sense. but we're not going to have 27 subscriptions. >> i think that's a key point. and roku's ceo was on the show earlier today and he said the fastest growing area is these ad-supported services. are we going to feel more of
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those? is there more opportunity for that and has that iceberg vp been chipped at yet? >> the roku channel is all ad driven, meaning free we're seeing -- it looks like cbs will launch ad-free, cbs has news that's ad driven, meaning free so i think we are going to get 50% of viewing like no subscription fee, ad driven. and we'll get the other -- but i want to make one point on this, to support my point that he's wrong and i'm right. what we think we saw with "game of thrones" is people turned off netflix and turned on "game of thrones" for the eight episodes, turned off hbo and went back to netflix. that argues that they are substitutable, not additive. >> well, you can see a lot of churn. it's easier. >> yeah, there's no disincentive to turn it off >> no, there isn't and i'm curious about your thoughts about the warner products hbo pl hbo max, a lot of people don't believe it's going to get great currency in the market place the price point is only a few bucks more
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>> i think it's going to be cluttered and it's any opinion that you won't go from three average subs, subscriptions, to five so i think that means there's a battle for -- if he's right that netflix means, that means there's a battle for the last spot but if it's a loser -- >> globally -- >> in the u.s. only. >> you're just talking about the u.s. but the global market is the one that matters, really >> the u.s. certainly matters. but netflix has a global opportunity, as does ultimately disney one of the things happening here is that the geographic boundaries are getting knocked down, too. and you can have these global brands that compete all over the world and disney is in a good position for that. >> all right, well, we'll have to talk about the idea of breaking up alphabet another time. >> i feel a feeling you're not going to do it before we have a chance to talk about it again. laura, henry, thanks very much >> session highs for stocks right now. the dow is up about 259 points right now. still to come, an arms race in tech to be the leader in climate
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prediction ayitusorhasty.
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welcome back to "squawk alley. let's get over to the cme now and rick santelli for the santelli exchange. hey, rick. >> hey, morgan, thank you. you know, there's so much interesting aspects to technical analysis, i've always been quite enamored with it and of course, the real trick is to try to blend the fundamental threads of what's going on,
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whether it's domestic or global economy, whatever sector you're paying attention to and see if you can get clues that cross-fertilize each other and i think my mission is to try to arm you, the viewers with a better strategy, to trade against the markets, better preserve your capital better and yesterday was one of these days that gives us so many learning experiences if you look at what happened yesterday, intraday. we had a low in tens a yield of 159, in 30s, 211 but you know what i always say the most efficient price of the day is the close and higher priority closes are even more efficient. so your daily and your weekly, your monthly and your quarterly. but intraday can be important, but you really have to do your homework and remember. okay, here's a ten-year chart. this is a monthly, many fewer points this goes back to 2012 as a monthly. you get what i mean. but the point is, we had a real nice double bottom in tens
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and this was july of 2012, and this was july of 2016. now, let's fast forward to the beginning of 2016, because the 30-year bond didn't quite behave the same in 2012 so here's a 30-year bond and indeed, if you look at july, the exact low closing yield is 2.099. we'll call it 2.10, close enough for government work. so what happens is, as we came down yesterday, intraday, we literally, literally almost covered every tick right there down to 211. but the issue is, where did we close yesterday. we closed yesterday at 2.25 in 30s. there's a lot of the bottom that's missing now granted, this could still be a double bottom, as every bit as valid as this to pay attention to, but it's not going to show up on the charts because the close is 2.25. many will not remember the intraday and this is one of those points where the intraday isn't the
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biggest tool in my tool chest, but these are days you need to put in whatever device you store your ideas, that this was a day to remember. i think yesterday's intraday low now at 211 is going to be really technically significant. and if i had to make a call, this might not be the bottom in treasuries, but it's certainly going to be a bottom i think it's going to be a while before we revisit those session intraday lows. mike, back to you. >> rick, thank you very much really good look at what could be a real consequential day yesterday in that market as we mentioned, coming up, carl icahn is just moments ago. he sits down with carl wapner and the halftime gang at the top of the hour. don't go anywhere. we are back in a moment. [ because i'm me" by avalanches ]
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and the best lte everywhere else. xfinity mobile. it's wireless reimagined. simple. easy. awesome. prediction heating up with tech startups in the lead diana olick joins us with a story. who the companies are and what exactly we are talking about when it comes to real estate. >> this is a brand new business model much like what happened a decade ago when measuring cyber risk was shiny and move. they are using powerful amounts of data to measure the rising risk of climate change to real estate >> reporter: when the typhoon ravaged hong kong last summer and hurricane florence decimated wilmington, north carolina, at the same time, in a tower high above chicago the head of global
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investment research, lud kins' job is to measure risk across the firm's $42 billion worth of properties property assets across four continents climate risk is the new frontier. >> the unexplored risk whthat w need to quantify. >> reporter: she partnered with the urban land institute in a groundbreaking study on real estate investment decision making it concluded the real estate markets are far from understanding climate risks enough to price them in today. those who are prepared have the potential to outperform. >> we wanted to sharpen our skills and ability to underwrite the risk of sea level rise, storm surge, wildfires. >> reporter: so she turned to a brand new category of companies. high-tech data analysts who go well beyond current flood maps to forecast future climate risk to real estate >> when you look out at the water around manhattan, what's
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the first thing that comes into your mind? >> it's beautiful and it's incredibly dangerous. >> reporter: rich sorkin is co-founder and ceo of jupiter intelligence, a barely three-year-old startup that has grown to a tav is of 50 backed by $50 million in venture capital. among its clients are the cities of new york and miami. >> we are seeing a dramatic expansion in large corporations coming to us saying we he had into to understand the risk to this office complex or the risk to the hotel or neighborhood where we have hundreds of millions of dollars of mortgages out. >> reporter: jupiter analyzes properties using thousands of predictive data points and gives their clients a risk score going out 10, 20, 50 years. >> we are essentially physically modeling what's happening with the atmosphere and the water or the fire at a very specific level of detail, which is now
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only possible because computers have gotten so powerful. >> reporter: and it goes well beyond what insurance companies forecast. >> insurance is a one-year contract at the end of it, the insurer gets to say, oh, we will keep insuring you and here is the new cost or, sorry, insurance is no longer available given the wind risk in your location. >> and the risk is not just the wind and fire and water. it's also quantifying it how much that will cost real estate investors in higher taxes and new construction regulations. morgan, one of those companies we showed 427 a couple weeks ago bought by moody's. it shows you how valuable the companies are. >> absolutely. when you talk about the future impact of future decisions by cities to build out and prepare against climate risk, what does that mean? are we talking about additional taxes for property developers? >> exactly
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it's what miami just did they just voted a $400 million bond issue taxing themselves in order to protect the city by buying pumps, et cetera, all sorts of fortifications. that, of course, gets priced into the real estate for the investors. >> amazing great package. thank you for bringing that to us in terms of the names, i know you mentioned one that was - >> jupiter. >> yes but the names for investors to be watching in terms of the tech companies that are working in this space and, that's it, that are working the space? >> jupiter, 427. moody's analytics will be getting into it. other tech companies will say they need to start quantifying. >> and moody's offering financial risk analysis, municipal issuers, right they need to be rated by moody's. this could filter into that? >> absolutely. >> great stuff thank you. when we return, stocks are
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at session highs we are going to discuss that after the break. meantime, the dow is up 1% s&p up 1.4%. the nasdaq is one 1.7% stay with us - stand up if you are first generation college student.
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welcome back taking a look at markets right now, we are at session highs the dow is up 270 or 1% right now, 26,276. s&p up 40 points, 1.4% the nasdaq is also higher. every sector in the s&p, mike, is trading in the green this morning led by tech stocks, materials stocks, and consumer discretionaries, some of the more cyclical names. >> the nasdaq is on the verge of going flat for the week. it's recovering the losses from monday global yields have lifted. so fixed income markets have relaxed. they got to the extremes of low yields that seems to have given the green light for further dip buying the in stock market you had some indicators that investor sentiment was very, very negative in the last few days that often means you have the recipe -- >> just to put that in perspective here i mean, i imagine investors are still closely watching what's
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going on in terms of currency in china as well as, as you mentioned, rates and the scenario that's playing out here for treasury yields. >> the dollar is actually backing off today, too it's essentially that kind of fear and risk aversion trade that had washed through markets is unwinding a bit here. i think that's essentially what we are seeing. a lot of people say this was the easy part. so levels we will see if we build from there the cross market was down 3% last week from the highs. >> yeah. and faang names are trading higher today as well as apple. we saw a trade-off earlier in the week on china fears. samsung had an unveil of their newest smartphone as well. the galaxy note 10 plus. it's their flagship device we have one here on set we have been playing with today. also announcing that partnership with microsoft as well, which more closely links android and office and the microsoft software. >> yeah, larger format
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wireless charging. lots of neat stuff that we can continue to play with us, i guess. >> yeah. we will continue to watch markets. they are at session highs. that's going to do it for ussen "squawk alley. it is a big show for the half. we will get over to scott wapner for that >> all right i'm scott wapner the continued rebound in stocks, whether it means the worst of the selling is now over. it is 12 noon. that means this is the "halftime report." >> billionaire investor carl icahn for an exclusive interview. he weighs in on the anchondo and occidental deal. the "halftime report" with scott wapner begins right now. >> welcome good to have you with us joe, steve, john, pete the se

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