tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC August 13, 2019 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
much like to do something. >> could you consider moving the tariffs and delaying it even further? >> we're doing this for christmas season just in case some of the tariffs would have an impact on u.s. customers but so far they have had really none the only impact is that we've collected almost $60 billion from china, compliments of china, but just in case they might have an impact on people, what we've done is we've delayed it so they won't be relevant to the christmas shopping season. [ inaudible question ] >> yeah. he's a very highly respected conservative pundit. he's a big trump fan that was a re-tweet. that wasn't from me. that was from him. he's a man with half a million followers, a lot of followers, and he's respected as you know, bill barr wants to do an entire investigation of
the whole epstein matter what happened? he's been going on for a long time, been going on for a long time, the whole epstein episode, and i know it's under investigation but attorney general barr that's who will be handling it the re-tweet which is what it was, it's a re-tweet, was from somebody that's a very respected conservative pundit, so i think that was fine, yeah. >> [ inaudible question ]. >> no, basically what we're saying is we want an investigation. i want a full investigation, and that's what i absolutely am demanding. that's what our attorney general, our great attorney general is doing he's doing a full investigation. >> [ inaudible question ]. >> the hong kong thing is very tough situation, very tough. we'll see what happens, but i'm sure it will work out. i hope it works out for everybody, including china, by
the way. i hope it works out for everybody. >> [ inaudible question ]. >> no. it's a very tricky situation i think it will work out, and i hope it works out for liberty. i hope it works out for everybody, including china i hope it works out peacefully i hope nobody gets hurt. i hope nobody gets killed. >> mr. president, are you more optimistic that you can get a deal with china on trade >> i've always been optimistic my only question is whether or not they were willing to wait and take the chance on winning the election and deal with somebody who is weak and ineffective and doesn't know what he's doing or she's doing like they have had in the past this should have been done 25 years ago. should have been tonyears ago or five years ago. this should have been done a long time ago. this should have been done by biden and obama. china has taken out $500 billion
a year and much more than that if you include the property. what i'm doing now should have been done many years ago [ inaudible question ] >> maybe there ought to be a different poem on the statue of liberty that says immigrants should stand up for themselves and take care of themselves. do you think that should be changed? >> i don't think it's fair to have are the american tax pasch -- it's about america first. i don't think it's fair for the american taxpayer paying for people who come into the united states so what we've done is institute what took place many, many years ago at our founding virtually. we are just reinstituting it, and i think it's long overdue. i'm tired of seeing our taxpayer paying for people to come into the country and immediately go on to welfare and various other things, so i think we're doing it right >> [inaudible question ]
>> i think that what chris cuomo did was horrible his language was horrible he looked like a total out-of-control animal. he lost it, and frankly i don't think anybody should defend him because he spews lies every night, so i don't know why anybody would defend him but chris cuomo was out of control. i watched it i thought it was terrible. so i don't know who is defending him. maybe they didn't see it maybe they haven't gotten a full picture, but i think anybody that would have seen chris cuomo would have said that's a disgrace you've never seen me do that >> [inaudible question ] >> well, i think chris kwemo was so out of control that i would not have wanted to see a weapon in his hand.
i guess his fist is not a weapon he talked about it but didn't do anything i think chris cuomo was very much out of control actually >> [inaudible question ] >> well, anthony was a guy who worked for me, who real didn't have a clue. he worked for 11 days. he made terrible statements and gestures and everything to people that worked in the office i think you've heard emschlapp talk about it in great detail. anthony didn't support me in the beginning. he was with somebody else and then he went to somebody else, and he only came to me after it was a foregone conclusion that i would win. i haven't been a fan of him. i think anthony is somebody that's very much out of control. he doesn't have what it takes, he real doesn't.
he wanted to come back into the administration for the last five months, beg me to come back in, and i said anthony, i can't take you in, i'm sorry. he's a nervous, neurotic wreck he called so much, and i said anthony, i'm sorry, i can't do that i can't take you in, and i said you've got to the stop all these phone calls, too many calls, anthony, and i wouldn't take his call, and lo and behold now he feels differently, but anthony is upset because he wanted certain things the main thing he wanted was to come back into the administration, and as you remember better than i do, he was a disaster for the 11 days >> [ inaudible question >> well, we have tremendous plastics coming over from asia and china. it's not our plastic it's plastic that's floating over in the ocean and the various oceans from other
places now, plastics are fine you have to know what you do with them, but other countries are not taking care of their plastic use, and they haven't for a long time. the plastic that we're getting is floating across the ocean from other places, including china. >> [inaudible question ] >> i am convinced that mitch wants to do something. i've spoken to mitch mcconnell he's a good man. he wants to do something he wants to do it i think very strongly he wants to do background checks and i do, too, and i think a lot of republicans do. i don't know frankly that the democrats will get us there, but ilspoke with chris murphy, a senator, had a very good conversation we'll see what happens mitch, and i can tell you from my standpoint, i would like to see meaningful backgrown checks. i think something will happen.
there's nobody more pro second amendment than donald trump, but i don't want guns in the hands of a lunatic or main yeah, and i think if we do proper background checks we can protect that. >> do you really think that the clintons are involved in jeffrey epstein's death? >> i have no idea. he was on the plane 27 times and he said he was on the plane four times. and bill clinton, a very good friend of epstein, he was on the plane about 27 or 28 times, so why did he say four times? and then the question you have to ask is did bill clinton go to the island because epstein had an island that was not a good place as i understand it i was never there. you have to ask did bill clinton go to the island that's the question. if you find that out, you're going to know a lot. thank you very much, everybody
>> all right welcome to "the halftime report." our breaking news continues now. that the president in bed minister, new jersey there speaking on a wide array of topics, including those delayed tariffs on china which caused the stock market to do what it is doing on the right-hand side of your screen, off the best levels of the day, but nonetheless it's a strong day for stocks let's go through some of the headlines there. the president speaking about that call with china saying it was very productive. also saying that he agreed to delay those tariffs because he didn't want to hurt the holiday shopping season, that he did it to help different groups of people, he said to avoid the consumer impact which is interesting. that sort of flies in the face of the narrative that the white house has been projecting in recent weeks and months that the consumer here in the united states wasn't being impacted at all from the tariffs, that the consumer here, the u.s. taxpayer as the u.s. administration says clearly wasn't paying at all as we've pointed out on numerous occasions that's just not the case in certain instances and
the president saying today one of the chief reasons why they delayed the tariffs until mid-september was because of the holiday shopping season. let's also hit the comments that the president had on hong kong because that remains very much part of the story today as those protests are certainly heating up at the airport in hong kong the president saying that he hopes nobody gets hurt, that nobody gets killed that situation is escalating one of the busiest airports in the world. numerous flights cancelled yesterday. another developing situation there today. the escalation of tensions between the riot police and the protesters there, so we're keeping our eye on both of those stories. let mow just let you know as well that the president towards the end there speaking about the possibility of increased gun control pressures saying that the senate majority leader mitch mcconnell, quote, wants to do something, those are the headlines that really relate to all that cover, certainly the tariffs and what's going on in hong kong which have not had a dramatic effect on the trading of stocks today but the tariffs
certainly have and this news that the administration after a call with china described as very productive will delay some, although when you get down into the details it -- it may be isn't the story that we thought all the way through, especially if you look at a stock and an intraday stock, for instance, like apple, surging on the news by at least $10 and backed off a bit as it's now becoming clear perhaps what exactly we're talking about in the kinds of products that will be subject to those tariffs. apple coming off the best level when things like apple watch, home pod, air pods may still be subject to the tariffs on deese 1st. we'll cover all of the movement in the market because it affects so much of the market. jon najarian, michael farr, josh brown, stef hi link and joe terranova. all right. so jon, we sort of set the scene
for everybody. it was this headline about the delay in tariffs that sent stocks off to the races, and as we pointed out almost every day if not every week. >> right. >> you're always one tweet or one headline away from a market reaction. >> a big up or a big down. >> and it's hard to gettow arms around what to do in that environment. >> true, very true, scott, and what's going on right now is the administration is giving china a little wiggle room here because examine's hand is pretty close to being forced in hong kong they don't want to do that they would lose their status if they harshly went in there and put down the protests so hopefully they can get this thing under control. by xi jinping is under extreme pressure because he's got the trade negotiations on the one hand, scott, and then hong kong and then obviously in the back of his mind taiwan because if you do hong kong, something is
going on with taiwan almost immediately. that's a lot of pressure i think this kind of eases a little of the pressure because he's taking the pressure off on the trade front side, and hopefully xi jinping can deal with miss lam and what's going on in hong kong. >> josh, no tariffs or at least delayed tariffs for some products from september the 1st until mid-december not to make a broad political comment, but the reality of you're always one tweet away or one headline away. you're trying to manage money for people. >> yeah. >> put me into that environment. >> well, so, the only way to win this game is not to play as i've said repeatedly because of exactly what you described and what we're seeing on our screens in front of us the president of the united states is gas lighting twitter, and that is triggering trades by algorithms that are written specifically for these types of headlines, delay tear of, buy s&p. new tariffs, sell s&p. if you think that you're going
to play that game against software you are more delusional than the people who are saying americans are benefiting from tariffs and we're taking in billions and billions of dollars. none of these things are happening and actually i wouldn't be surprised if we resolve to the downside. i know people got excited, oh, they are going to save christmas and take the tariffs off some of the electronics. the damage is done it's absolute chaos. talk to anyone trying to do cross-border trade don't know whether they are coming and going you'll never see the peak in cap "x" that you saw in 2018 it's not coming back and in the absence you have two things supporting the market, buybacks and reasonable valuations with few alternatives absent those weeks probably close to 4,000 on the dow. count your lucky stars that the fed is standing back and you'll continue to have the buybacks that will keep the market okay but the idea that we'll have gas
lit algorithm rallies as far as the eye can see. it's a total embarrassment. >> i was wondering if this was just obviously some semblance of a relief rally or if it's one where we get back to reality where recession risks are rising there are a number of different statistics that i could cite and the numbers that wall street are passing around today we'll go through a little bit of it is this a one-day phenomenon, a couple of days, and we're back to rallies >> we've tweeted these headlines before. >> when you think -- the blue, and we'll tariff everything that comes out of mexico and stocks plunge and then a week later and then the hard part is for fred and ethel who are 70 years old they are retired and they are looking at the income and trying to see if their money is going to last until they are 90 or 1
the 5 years old. they plotted out their healthcare expenses and they see this kind of volatility and they think should i be doing this, you know, and the answer of fred and ethel is, no, by the way, day to day just tune it out. you've got to ignore this. you've need to pay attention to the fundamentals and know that the economy is growing very, very slowly, scott. >> so good points made by michael farr, steph. bank of america says the s&p is on borrowed time in the 2s and sos, bond yields invert. there's the lowest -- the spread is now the lowest since '07. you have fund manager survey, recession fears spike to 2011 high you have a third of respondents in that survey expecting a recession 12 months. you make sense of it you're running a multi-billion dollar portfolio at tia. >> it's like i rolled my eyes when i saw the news this morning because it's really, really very difficult. you can't react -- what michael just said. you can't react to the day-to-day headlines, you can't as a long-term fundamental
portfolio manager so what do you do and i've been talking about this barbell approach for a while, and i know you're probably sick and tired of me talking about it, but you can't really go after it today i would love to then really pile into cyclicals across the poured if in fact i thought we were going to make progress on trade. now, look, this is good news today that maybe we get some clarity, some pushouts, but we're not out of the woods so you, therefore, have to keep a balanced portfolio you have to have some cyclicals which i actually do and i'm overweight dickials. >> you'll never be out of the woods until you've got president xi and president trump sitting at a table with the flags behind them and they have the signing ceremony and have the pens out. >> that's my point you can't own -- if you're going to be a portfolio manager and are going to vest, you can't go all in in the cheap stocks because they have gotten beaten up on trade because we just don't know until we get the final agreement, if we ever get a final agreement. >> you're buying stocks. >> you have to have some defensives and some offensives.
>> you're playing some offense today. maybe. maybe it's playing offense by way of defense. >> so amgen i bought that's a new position for me because they won the enbrel case, 20% of their total revenues and their pipeline is strong enough and they are best of class and the stock can grind higher has nothing to do with trade thankfully because i don't want all my stocks to be exposed to trade. a good quality company lagged the sector because of the embrel case. a little more to go. flip side, sold out of emerson because that's an oil proxy, and i don't think oil -- i think it's in a trading range. farr, not michael, david farr has done a great job running that company, and i do think that once he -- he might retire, they may split up the company. there's a lot of optionality and the stock will languish. i did buy ge nibbled a little bit. >> added to. >> my cost basis is around 9 so it's around here i thought the quarter was actually better than the way the
stock react the. they are in the restructuring story, early innings power was actually better. that's what everyone has been freaked out about. orders up 4% and cash flow better than expected aviation and healthcare had issues, not a perfect quarter but at 9 the risk/reward is quite interesting. >> i wonder, joe, if you feel like we're running towards the end of the road of the bond proxy trades. >> no. >> not at all? >> not at all. >> you know, the yield, the dividend plays. >> that's the problem. >> the hunt for yield has been the headline. >> that's the problem that on a day like today you're challenged by true asset and wealth managers are going out and talking about not just equities. they are talking about on a daylight today take a look at reits if you're underinvested. take a look at what precious metals have done today they have reversed significantly. does that mean it's over for precious metals? no you want to continue to hold those. on a day like today, the temptation is there to do that just as it has been for the last
three or four years where people said get out of bonds. bonds are not the place that you want to be bonds are what you need in your portfolio. back to the equities market, look, i didn't like the tweet on august 1st i didn't like the timing of the tweet today. it gives the appearance of manipulating the equities market, but in those 12 days you've found opportunities to buy equities whether it was a mastercard or intuit i like your buy of amgen you and i talked about adco and lamb research, names that i'm adding to, and i'll give into the headline today best buy to me has fundamentally been a solid company that's been hamstrung by the potential of these tariffs. now if you're pushing them back until christmas, okay. i'll take the bait on that one. >> do you buy semis because of this do you buy tech hardware or any of the other stocks? >> consumer electronics, best buy. i think you can take a look at
the number of the retailers like urban outfitters a whole bunch get hurt when they talk about the tariffs moving up as much as the president had threatened to move them up, and most of those are up between 7%, best buy, urban up 5%. a host of others. >> i don't think you need to go there. >> you can go to quality and off-pricers, t j. max, ross stores. >> dollar general. >> they get hit more on tariffs than the off-pricers and they are so cheap walmart. plenty of retailers out there, discretionary names that haven't participated, and if we do get resolution they will benefit. >> and the letter "x" is hitting. u.s. steel, f-moran, those stocks hitting again and moving up and pretty strong institutional money going into those names right now. >> just one other point, scott, i don't think even if you've got president trump and president xi down at a signing ceremony
you're out of the woods here he's going to have another tweet. this is a president who likes the headlines. have will be more tweets what we have to do is figure out how to live with the volatility and not overreact. we have to start pricing in that series of tweets. >> how do you live with it steeve is right when she says it's so difficult to try and play it >> you can't play it you have to go to the fundamentals >> wait ten days like joe is talking. >> i don't know how to do that. >> too simple to say we have a four-month reprieve in the market, that the rally is back on now >> no, no, not unless you take his iphone away you won't have a reprieve for ten minutes, much less four money. you have to listen to stephanie and say we'll look at fundamentals listen to sdwroe and say i'm looking at business models you listen to those companies, that you know, josh and jon have mentioned about they are not going to face the tariffs that are as high but they still have good business models good strong fundamentals earnings growth, good cash flow that will survive all of this
noise. this is a time when you have to shut out the noise and look longer term. >> if i throw a stock in the wind if i like amd today, for example you're telling me don't even pay attention to tweet deck or anything else, and i just buy amd for the long term because all this noise is going to clear? >> you have to be willing to accept the fact that the fundamentals in amd may not change from monday to tuesday but the share price could be 15% higher or lower. >> yes. >> you can't handle, that you shouldn't be in individual stocks and, b, you -- you missed the fundamental concept that a lot of what happens on your screen day to day is driven by emotion, not just your emotion but emotions of other people. >> part of being a portfolio manager is right sizing your bets who has more beta and what doesn't? amd has so much juice you can't be 200 or 300 basis points over the benchmark in that name because you have the headline risk, but could you size it 50
basis points above the benchmark? certainly. you'll still get the benefit on the days that it actually goes higher. >> joe made an important point about maintaining your asset allocation i'm already seeing horror shows out there. we looked at a portfolio from someone, not a client of ours, but a client of like a $3 billion team at a warehouse firm, and they had no fixed income, and -- and why i don't know our advisor said that jamie dimon said weights are going to 70%. this portfolio is a living nightmare. this is the kind of activity that you see out there when people think they know better than the markets, and people think they are outsmarting 1 hundred million professional investors. wipe out your bond exposure because you think rates are going up your bond exposure and to joe's point your bond proxies, that's what's kept you in the green over the last year, so if you think you're smarter than the whole world, by all means, you want to make these binary all-or-nothing bets with asset
classes. go right ahead wish you the best of luck but that's not what will work for a majority of people so maintaining these bond proxy names, regardless of what your views are, i think that's going to be the key that gets you through these periods of volatility, and you may not look like the smartest man on earth every day or the smartest woman on earth, but that's not the name of the game the name of the game is stay in the game. >> judge, yesterday, apple was stronger than the market, and it was hard to say why. i'm not saying because this was foretold by somebody or an al gore or anything else. apple was stronger, down like 90 cents and it was in the black for much of the day yesterday. then they came out july smartphone shipments in china, not down as much as they thought. i think that was the reason that apple held in so strong yesterday, and obviously today it's optimism about what some of negotiation might yield, even though as you said earbuds and many of the other things, air buds are not going to be part of
what comes -- what is delayed september 1st. >> they are also buying back a ton of stock of their own. >> you bet. >> they got tons of support on that front. >> that's what it looks like has been happening right at that 200 level on apple. >> but they all have been buying back a ton of stock this corporate tax cut has really resulted in a huge amount of stock buybacks you want to see what's supporting the market more than anything else. stock buybacks. >> stock buybacks are actually outpacing the all-time high, the receptions for mutual funds, and if you want to know like what happens when all these people are selling out their equity mutual funds which has been the trend since january relentlessly, record numbers, it's buybacks that are picking up the slack, and you could say i don't like that or it's not supposed to be that way. well, that candidly is what's keeping the dow and the s&p within 4%, 5% of the all-time high. >> does today's headlines stop the massive decline that we've been seeing in bond yields i mean, banks are getting a bid today. >> yes. >> no shock.
>> tell me what he's going to tweet tomorrow. >> also the nfib today, it came out better than expected the small business gauge came out -- and who would have seen that i didn't see that coming at all, but it's better than expected. 104.7 or something like that, scott, versus 104 something was expected i think things like that are also why you're going to see those yields, you know, start moving to the other direction for a bit. >> interesting that cowan had a note today saying washington remains the biggest threat to the banks through the 2020 election regardless of who wins for a variety of reasons. >> we said that yesterday. we said you could be faced with a democratic presidential candidate rather who is going to present a significant challenge to the financial institutions, but i think the important thing about the market, the equity market itself, is what michael and josh are talking about is the buyback impact, and when you're lowering rates and you're sitting in the sweet seat and
you have an opportunity now to do a dead offering at these historically low levels. >> yes. >> if investors are out there and they are actually going to go in and they are going to take your debt, great, i'll do it all day long so you have buybacks running 13% higher this year than last year, approaching $1 trillion, and in that environment with lower rates that's going to even expand more cap "x" which josh is citing, yes, there was a cap "x" peak but cap "x" is 8% higher year on year i'll take that. >> all right we'll step away and take a quick break. here's what else is coming up on "the halftime report." >> the street is loving mcdonald's the stock up 40% this year and a new call saying it's time to buy, but do our experts agree? it's our call of the day plus, jon najarian tracking some unusual options activity stay tuned for his latest trades and we want to hear from you send us your questions at
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earlier. police stepped in and used pepper spray and tear gas to try to subdue the protesters at this point we are getting some statements both from the chinese u.n. mission and also a first statement from the chinese central government here's what china's u.n. mission says they say the protesters have smashed public facilities, paralyzed the airport and blocked public transport and used lethal weapons. this is the key phrase, showing a tendency of resorting to terrorism. then the chinese central government moments ago came out and said that they firmly support hong kong chief executive carrie lam and her government in discharging their duties in compliance with the law and supports the police force and the judiciary. earlier this week, china also issued a statement saying that the protesters and the clashes are sprouts of terrorism the reason those words are important is because if the protesters are indeed declared terrorists, it gives carrie lam,
who is the ceo, the chief executive of hong kong, appointed by mainland china, it gives her additional powers to subdue the protesters. that's why the language in this particular case counts enormously we have had some injuries. we've seen blansz on the scene this is the second straight day where the transportation in and out of that airport has been disrupted, so we're following what is a very fluid situation at this point, scott i'll turn it back to you. >> okay. we appreciate, that sue. thank you for that. >> mm-hmm. >> that's sue herera there, which is why, michael farr, you just said to me as sue was delivering that report as we're watching those live pictures, the bond bid remains as long as it remains unsettled there, if not in other places as well. >> as long as the world remains unsettled, as long as we're hearing about that, and as long as we're hearing about, still, you know, the new nafta agreement isn't getting done there's another headline out there, talks with iran have gone quiet for a moment it's the tough part -- it's that unpredictable short-term thing
that's been swing our markets in every direction, and when investors make mistakes, scott, it's because they have become emotional. we were just talking about it on the desk during a break, that you know, when investors get scared and they think that they have got to take profits, they got to do something now. long-term investors never have to do anything now they just don't, and it makes it so much harder, but, yeah, our bond market could get a bid back very quickly and it could be later this afternoon. >> let's talk about shares of mcdonald's this morning. they are up 20% this year, another new high today as mkm partners says, the stock should keep rising. 250 bucks. the price target is the heist on the street and i'll focus on the left-hand side of the desk here, joe, you and steph both own the stock. you first. >> i think we're both relatively somewhat nervous about the valuation. >> yes. >> and wondering when the shoe is going to drop. >> yes they have done a tremendous job over the last four years the stock price is a double, and
they have done it with a massive refranchising effort they are now above 90% in refranchising, and then they have incorporated the digital strategy when you have a strong digit-at-strategy and you're combining it with fast food service, you can going to gain momentum, and that's what mcdonald's has done. they have made the experience for the consumer faster, quicker, cleaner and a better menu. >> how about this, steph mcdonald's has done incredibly great, right incredibly well. the stock, as joe said, has been off to the races year to date, mcdonald's is up 23%, wendy's 27% yum 26%. qsr 42%. starbucks 48%. >> yeah. >> what does that tell you and i don't mean to bring that up as a negative on mcdonald's it's just that there's so much focus on mcdonald's and so much focus them hitting a new high but oh, by the way these other stocks have done better. >> these other stocks have more
beta and better growth and much higher multiples >> there it is and that's the savior, if you will, for why you would like mcdonald's over them >> well, so here's the thing i don't own a lot of consumer staple stocks because i find them very expensive relative to the growth that you're getting so something like a p & g is 26 times and it's growing, organic growth of 5%, 6%, maybe even 7% is sustainable, i don't think so, but anyhow that's what they just produced. that's a good number that's a low number to pavement organic growth at 7% at 26 times. these guys will do -- mcdonald's will do double-digit earnings and mid-single digit comps it acts like a staple stock, so where i'm underweight staples i can plug it with this, and oh, by the way, have you a ceo who has done a remarkable job in totally transforming the company on digital side, on the menu side and to joe's point to the consumer experience side what bothers me is, a, valuation, and also 75% of the sell side has bice on the stock. >> can you get another 15% out
of this thing. >> no. i think the trade of owning some defensives, if that continues, this should continue to do fine, but the expectations -- >> some of this -- some of this is like technology and the companies have that invested over the last few years. they are seeing the benefit of that in terms of more habit-forming behavior on the part of the consumer. >> yeah. >> the digital experience. >> that's number one to your point, it's -- it looks like a rerating for the whole sector sheikh omar abdel-rahman is up 1 has% year to date from jah 1 the fundamentals of the business did not go up 100% they are doing well, but that's not the reality. the reality is wall street likes these companies again and a lot just has to do with an overall strong environment. >> the nuggets. >> and the consumer is doing well. >> he was telling me about the nuggets. >> the best restaurant stocks do well. >> that's a truism now you combine that with oil and gas not being a price impediment to the consumer there's a lot of good things. >> with everything we're talking about, with what michael just mentioned about bonds and what you might see in hong kong or the lack of something that could
percolate out of iran or any of these other things that could become a headline like that, not just a sweet, that's all the reason you need to know as to why joe and steph are winning this this trade because nobody wants to sell or get out of mcdonald's here, judge one of the safest stocks look at the recent earnings. they were just in line you show me another stock, guys, where it's just in line with revenue, in line with earnings per share. that stock is going to get slammed. mcdonald's didn't, and, in fact, it's like $6 higher than when they reported that nobody wants to get out of this stock. >> okay. we're going to stay on the consumer theme in just a moment because we have some unusual activity on a consumer stock up more than 30%, and jon has that coming up in unusual activity first the s&p a second check big bay for a stock. s&p up 47, and the financials.
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progression from the lower left to the upper right is certainly god for anybody like steph who owns it. people are betting on upside out to september today, and part of it is perhaps that morgan stanley upgrade last week when they came in and said, hey, take it to overweight, $62 price target they upped the dividend in the most recent report as well look at this nearly 12,000 of these calls, september calls. less than $3 out of the money, scott. i think people are betting that this one makes that move throughout the summer and into september. i'm long these calls i'll probably be in them in the neighborhood of a month, month and a half second one real quick. take a look at silver, slv it's up 10% in the last month, and just what we said about mcdonald's also applies here who wants to get out of their precious metals right here because something else could be happening, whether it's hong kong or anything else. we see people buying 1850 calls in slv right now
like i say, we've had it hit multiple times this one is already up over 12,000 contracts 1.2 million share equivalent love that. lastly, very quick on j.d., we talked about it last week. just three days ago, talked about j.d. now we see the stock making an 11% move today, stock and luckily the options are moving better than 70%. that's why you trade options, and that's you get into a stock like j.d look at that 11.2% on blowout earnings today. >> we probably have a question for you. we're got them on roku, marriott and more straight ahead. you still have time to submit yours. go to cnbc.com/halftime or tweet us because we're back in a little more than two minutes your daily dashboard from fidelity. a visual snapshot of your investments. key portfolio events. all in one place.
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and accessoriesphones for your mobile phone. like this device to increase volume on your cell phone. - ( phone ringing ) - get details on this state program call or visit welcome back to "the halftime report. let's answer some of your questions. joe, one for you about marriott from mark in atlanta, georgia. is it time to get back in to mar in. >> yes, it, and that's something i've done in the last ten days listen, the guidance was a little bit weak.
the revenue growth and the unigrowth look a little bit week, but i think arnie sorensen has done a phenomenal job diversifying the brand, introducing new hotels, ac, a loft if you've ever stayed at them these are millenial hotels, shiny and brand new and places that people want to go to. marriott for the long term is a great play. >> the linkster, from paul in downington, pennsylvania thanks for the recommendation on bx is now the time to buy carlisle? so blackstone good what about carlisle? >> well, i think blackstone still has room to go because it hasn't been included in the index funds and it should be at the end of this month, so i still think there's upside to blackstone carlisle don't go to "c" corp until january of 2020 so have you time you can slowly build the position but i do prefer the position. >> for josh brown from nelson in brookhaven, georgia. josh, cgc, canopy growth. >> thanks, freddo. >> seems to have mel ode out
are you still optimistic about their potential? >> that's a great question i am, and the stock has mellowed out. the whole sector has been under distribution if you look at all the publicly trade, quote, unquote, cannabis plays, one looks worse than the next and they are all terrible here's what i would tell you i have a very, very small amount of stock no intention of adding right now. this is the type of story that i would rather add to on the way up so i'm watching the 200-day moving average which is about 40 i want to see it regain that level and have that at least flatten out before i get excited about it i'm in here very small i'm not adding i don't feel like there's any urgency. >> okay. >> okay. >> you're responsible for everything you say on this show, okay not me, just you. >> okay. >> michael farr, for you from evans in tampa, florida long j&j >> yeah, and i like the stock. in this world of seasickness i think this is a good dramamine stock. has a aaa balance sheet.
14.4 times earnings, discount to the s&p, 2.9% dividend, and i've toned forever. tyler mathisen makes fun of me about it, but when you have a u.s. treasury ten-year yielding 1.65 and you get that twice for johnson & johnson, got beaten up over the talc crisis, but this is a stock i want to own. >> doc, roku, buy, sell, hold? >> collar put spreads? >> i'm ed holding that he havely, and that spread that judge just spoke of, a collar where you own a put, sell a call to pay for it, fancy, judge. >> look at that. >> a fancy play, jon got a great book that describes exactly that. >> "options action" a few times. >> you know, it's a great stock. just been on fire. needham just moved the target up to 150 trees don't grow to the sky, judge. i think you lock some in.
stetland crude is up over the last week, but down about 5% in the last month. how much should investors believe in this rebound? >> well, it feels like things are starting to shift a little bit. when you look at the saudis they're going to be willing to cut back more on oil here. the announcement that aramco might go forward in selling part of their shares here i'm not the biggest bull but things seem to reverse strong today in the oil markets and the stock market maybe global growth doesn't hit zero like everybody's predicting here and we get some growth and that way the upside to oil maybe $60 is in the cards. >> and anthony, what does the technical picture tell you about oil? >> well, 56, 57 is the 200 day moving average you mentioned we're well above that right now. i have resistance at 58, and i'll take the opposite of when brian said you know, not a lot of demand has materialized because of what happened with china today. in fact, demand is actually falling and u.s. production is rising i'm looking to actually fade this rally.
>> okay, brian, anthony, thank you. for more futures now check out our live show at 1:00 p.m. eastern. we'll dive deeper into oil that and much more futur futuresnow.cnbc.com. see that's funny, i thought you traded options. i'm not really a wall street guy. what's the hesitation? eh, it just feels too complicated, you know? well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. jj, will you break it down for this gentleman? hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until you're comfortable. i could be up for that. that's taking options trading from wall st. to main st. hey guys, wanna play some pool? eh, i'm not really a pool guy. what's the hesitation? it's just complicated. step-by-step options trading support from td ameritrade
landsman's article on why one top money manager sees a growing risk that could slam stocks through next year. go to tradingnation.cnbc.com now. sonoma county declared a homeless emergency in 2018. you have to know the individuals you're serving to understand their needs. working with ibm watson we can bring together data spread across dozens of departments. that gives us a fuller view of the people we serve. dear tech, dear tech, we need to look after everyone in our community. and we want to help our fellow human beings. ♪ ♪ it's my special friend, antonio. his luxurious fur calms my nerves when i'm worried about moving into our new apartment. why don't we just ask geico for help with renters insurance? i didn't know geico helps with renters insurance. yeah, and we could save a bunch too. antonio! fetch computer! antonio?
they did a lot of investing in these jet fan engines. they're going to benefit from them i think it's a good solid company, and i think it's going to do well. >> kkr. >> >> sjm. >> good stuff. thanks for watching. dow right now up 407 points. "the exchange" begins right now. thank you, scott hi, everybody. here is what's ahead a tariff bomb shell, the u.s. delaying some china tariffs until effectively after christmas. that, plus word of a phone call between our two trade reps has that market soaring today. is the worst over, and what does it mean for the fed now? we will ask. plus, worsening protests in hong kong. the local leader warning protesters they've gone down, quote a path of no return as skirmishing break out in the airport. we'll have the latest, and talk about how this factors into the china trade talks. and bringing skilled workers back to america's heartland. a look at ho