tv John King USA CNN August 25, 2011 11:00pm-12:00am PDT
just moments ago, the national hurricane center issued a new bulletin. chad myers joins us with the latest. chad, what does the new bulletin say? >> the pressure is going down, anderson. and that's bad. the lower the pressure, the higher the wind speed. now, there are hurricane hunter aircraft in there right now, did not find any increased wind speed yet. sometimes the pressure goes down and then the winds build. but there's the eye right there from the miami radar site. so it's not all that far away. we've had outer bands coming onshore in florida for most of the day. there's another outer band offshore right now, if you're standing ong the beach you may be able to see the lightning in the distance. i hope you're not on the beach at this point, though, because the waves are getting much larger. you get the 115-mile-per-hour winds out there, there's going to be a lot of rip currents going out into the ocean in the next couple of days, all the way into cape hatteras, even into ocean city, maryland. let's break it down for you. 120-mile-per-hour storm tomorrow afternoon south of the cape. by tomorrow, about saturday, 2:00, you get to the category 2,
110-mile-per-hour storm somewhere in north carolina. now, there's still a chance, a slight chance, anderson, that it's offshore. but that's probably less than 30%. the better chance is that it's very close to morehead city, atlantic beach, into north carolina. and then the bad part is, that isn't even really land. there's an ocean, an island, barrier islands, but there's the sounds in there. that's all just water. so this storm doesn't slow down at all. it doesn't lose intensity because it's over land. it glides right al the delmarva, goes right on up the jersey shore and right into, very, very close to the hudson river. the new york harbor, with water and waves lapping into the harbor. especially water and waves and surge on long island. and even probably all the way over from providence into rhode island itself. this will be a storm that we have never seen. hurricane bob in 1991, but it was farther to the east.
in our lifetime we have not seen a storm just drive right up the hudson river and takes that water with it, and maybe even floods parts of manhattan. >> any sense of how this compares to -- on long island in new york, there was the hurricane in '38 that killed, i think a couple hundred people out around west hampton, all around that stretch of southern long island. do we now have this to compare? i guess it's too early to tell. >> it's a little too early. maybe the winds aren't going to be as big as that storm. look at the map behind me here, where there's purple all the way from new england to north carolina. that's eight inches of rain or more everywhere. the inland flooding could be tremendous with this. because although the storm is moving, and it's moving rapidly, the rain will be so intense at times, that the flooding will just occur. hurricane models right over north carolina. hurricane models right over the northeast. there's very little chance that this misses the u.s. at this point, anderson. >> and chances that it -- i mean, that it misses the whole
new york region. obviously that's a heavily populated area, a lot of folks are concerned about that. i mean, how likely is it that -- how many tracks show it hitting new york? >> i would say eight out of 20. that's a pretty big number. and the rest of them are either east of or west of the city. the best case for new york city would be if the storm would be somewhere out there. obviously missing everything. but if the storm would be just to the east of new york, the winds in the harbor would blow offshore, and not surge manhattan. not push all that water into manhattan. and long island. and into williamsburg. and for the -- that way into the meadowlands, how swampy that is. the water would go straight up. the other best secret would be to go over here through the poconos. but that would cause more flooding in the poconos, and it would be dying here because it's over land of the that's a possibility. if it goes over the delaware water gap and up into the poconos, it would cause a lot of flooding and a lot of downed trees there, even in the
adirondacks. but the city would be saved at that point in time. >> chad, appreciate it. thanks very much. we'll check back with you throughout this hour. and obviously into the night to give you another idea of how big irene is. this is what it looks like from the international space station. one crew member saying it looks very scary to him, even from up there. mandatory evacuations under way along parts of north carolina's outer banks, people all the way up the coast asked to leave or get ready. >> the barrier island right now, with my wife and my four kids. we won't be there tonight. >> i want to remind you that this kind of forecast is very imprecise, and we're talking about something that is a long time away in meteorological terms. what we have to do is assume the worst, prepare for that, and hope for the best. >> obviously new york mayor michael bloomberg ordering the evacuation of senior centers, hospitals in low-lying areas. he asked people in those places to consider leaving voluntarily
tomorrow to try to cut down on traffic. they're getting ready in washington, as well. troops here filling sand bags at a military base along the potomac river. we got the word that the martin luther king jr. memorial scheduled for sunday in washington, that has been postponed. the navy is sending 27 warships based in norfolk, virginia, out into the ocean where they will be safer. three subs also put to sea. vessels moving inland to safety. we got the announcement of this moments ago. take a look at this. this is the capital, nassau, on the bahamas, outlying areas really got hammered. the long island reports taking direct hits. no deaths so far there. but serious damage, and major flooding as well. joining us is max mayfield, former director of the national hurricane center. max, you say one of your
greatest nightmares is having a hurricane go up the northeast coast. why? >> well, just because the population. and, you know, i think people up through the carolinas, they've had enough experience with hurricanes, they know how to respond. but get too far north of there, and a lot of people just understandably don't have the experience with hurricanes. so that's a big, big concern. and as chad mentioned, this is a large hurricane. and you really don't want to focus on that little skinny line. it's a very large circulation in this case. even if the core weakens a little bit as it moves over eastern north carolina and over the colder water up north, that large circulation is not going to disappear. so they're going to be dealing with all the hazards, storm surge, large waves on top of that surge, and wind and rainfall. this particular hurricane is going to have a large rain field well out in advance of it. so that's not a good thing to have a lot of rain, and have the winds come in that will knock
over trees and power lines. if you remember hurricane isabel, there were 6 million people who lost power in isabel. most of that occurred in areas outside of hurricane-force wind. >> hurricane bob, i think in '91, was the last major hurricane to hit the northeast. so the comparisons with irene i guess make sense. how similar are they? >> well, this is a lot larger than bob. i remember forecasting bob when i was at the hurricane center. that just clipped the eastern tip of long island. but it was a much, much smaller hurricane. this is going to be different. i would say that, you don't even have to have a hurricane up there in the long island area, new york city area, and cape cod area. this is such a large system, with the waves and the storm surge, it's going to do a lot of damage. so people really need to heed the advice of the local officials. the weather service offices are talking to those local emergency managers, and people need to heed their advice when they're told to do something.
>> i was talking to someone on the subway today. a lot of new yorkers i don't think are ready, or even begun to realize what this could mean, or how bad it could get. i don't want to cause fear unnecessarily. when it comes to the path of the storm, though, i guess worst case scenario would be a direct hit on new york. >> well, that would be true. in 1893, there was a category 1 hurricane, pushed inland about a half mile. central park had tremendous damage. they've had hurricanes. but a long, long time ago. this one is going to be different. not like the long island express of 1938. that hurricane was moving very rapidly, and maintained the core of that hurricane. this is probably not going to do that. this is moving slower. so the maximum winds may weaken, in that inner core, but the large circulation is going to remain intact, and it will do a lot of damage.
and i would expect a lot of power outages. let's hope we don't have loss of life. >> let's hope not. hurricane of '38, it was deadly, killed a couple of hundred people out on long island. new updates will come in. let us know what you think. i'll try to be tweeting some tonight. up next, the very latest on the hunt for moammar gadhafi. never-before-seen video, the battle to take gadhafi's compound. the manhunt going on now. we'll talk to john burns in a few moments. also tonight, exclusive interview with one of the journalists held captive by gadhafi's henchmen. she's been credited for persuading the captors to let everyone go. she's an arab speaker. she talked to them for days and days, and finally they relented. she'll tell us how she did it. first let's check in with isha sesay. it's a serious possibility, not just a nightmare scenario anymore, tunnels flooded,
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right behind you can see the thick plume of dark smoke. that is as a result of the ongoing incoming artillery. this location has been pounded. smoke still coming from multiple directions. that, a plane on fire at the tarmac. but then over here, we have two golf carts that the rebels say they also got off of gadhafi's farm. they've been coming through, trying them out. many of them say they remember gadhafi coming out of a golf cart similar to this one carrying an umbrella, giving one of his infamous speeches. what they have been saying is that being on the farm, seeing the life of luxury that their leader led at the expense of the people for more than four decades is making them all that more determined to hunt down his loyalists. but more importantly to hunt him down as well. >> that hunt is intensifying. we'll, of course, bring you hurricane updates as they come
in. but the other breaking news is the search for gadhafi. opposition forces going house to house in tripoli, kicking down doors looking for the fuj different tick dater. there were reports that fighters had him cornered. that turned out not to be the case. he surfaced in another audiotape, his voice broadcast in tripoli today. listen. >> translator: do not leave tripoli for the rats. do not leave them. fight them. destroy them. you are the overwhelming majority. you have marched in millions. march with the same millions. but fight this time. fill the streets and the fields. >> heavy fighting, there is still opposition. pockets of resistance throughout tripoli. listen.
loyalists shelling continues at the airport, destroying a wide-body airliner overnight. opposition fighters say they're still having to hold back returning fire because the shelling is coming from heavily populated neighborhoods. shortly before air time, we got access to truly remarkable video, from a view of the battle for gadhafi's compound. only one camera was there to record it. some of the most intense combat video we've seen out of this conflict. this is how it looked and sounded to opposition fighters at the dictator's door.
>> the intensity of the fighting. taking over the gadhafi compound. there are still pockets of fighting in tripoli, shelling in towns west of the capital. "the new york times" reporting clashes in zuwarah. and another strong hold to the south. the focus is on one city, tripoli, and one man with a price on his head, gadhafi. nic robertson is in tripoli with more on the manhunt. you spent most of the day with opposition fighters searching for gadhafi. what did they find? and how organized a search is it?
>> reporter: it seems to be a somewhat chaotic search. it seems to be rumor driven. and sometimes one rumor feeds into another rumor. the first rumor that we heard was being taken very seriously by rebel commanders. they sent additional troops. we talked to the commander. they thought gadhafi was in an apartment building close to his old palace compound. we went there. we couldn't find evidence of the buildup, of the fire fight. then we were told that it was actually centered in another neighborhood. a neighborhood that's got a lot of gadhafi loyalists. we went there. and we found fighters who said it wasn't gadhafi, and his family in an apartment complex. it was another family who was supporting him. then they went into that building and there was nobody there. so it's just rumor on rumor, that the rebels are chasing at the moment. and they're chasing ghosts. they're coming up with nothing right now, anderson. >> so they don't really have solid information about his whereabouts at this point, but to the members of the opposition that you've talked to, how important is it that they capture gadhafi?
why do they think it's so important? >> reporter: they think it's, number one, it's psychologically important, because that will just be very clear to everyone, even those that still support him, and there are some tribes here whose loyalty to gadhafi hasn't been tested in the south of the country, in the west of the country. people are holding out still loyal to him. they think that that will show these tribes that the end has come. and they've got to work with a new national transitional council. so that's one reason why it's important. emotionally it will be very important. it will be absolutely symbolic for them that they have a real victory. as long as there are people fighting them on the streets, the battle's not over. and they dearly want to get this over and done with. they just moved the national transitional council leaders here to tripoli, to try to begin to manage and rebuild the country. but they're still fighting the battles on the streets, anderson. >> nic, stay with us. i want to bring in john burns of "the new york times," who has done a lot of reporting over the years in libya.
he was kicked out by the gadhafi regime. colonel gadhafi just released this tape that we just played. we talked about him last night as being delusional. if in fact that was his voice, he seemed delusional in this tape. he's saying do not leave tripoli for the rats. he talks about a wave of people coming to rise up. it doesn't sound like he's really in touch with the reality of what's going on, or he's just making stuff up. >> of course, that's been true of gadhafi's statements for really quite a long time. a lot of them have just been gobbledygook. yet this goes along. i don't know if psychiatrists that could have a field day with this. there's an edge of deadly rationality to this. it doesn't bode well. we saw those television images today, not only of the
subterrain yan complex, but the come pound in central baghdad. television crews were down there today. just as interesting to me was, another report of a house in a baghdad suburb on a street, probably known as shadow street, where completely normal looking house from the outside. inside was palatial with a deep 40-foot bunker. you could see how many times that could be replicated. there might be probably, probably are many places like that in areas of tripoli. which are favorable to saddam -- or to, beg your pardon, for gadhafi, in his hometown, somewhere in the south. this could be tracked. >> in terms of the mood amongst opposition forces, how is the morale? and again, i'm sort of really interested in the organization of this.
is there a central commander who is controlling the opposition's movements? or is it just small groups of fighters who have banded together as we saw early on in this, kind of doing whatever they can? >> you're asking me, anderson? >> i'm sorry, no, nic. go ahead, nic. >> reporter: there is a sort of central command. whichever area you go through, you will find a command headquarters, and you'll find somebody who's smart, who's knowledgeable, who's respected by the rebel fighters around him. he will direct them to do things, the commander we saw today directed additional troops, additional rebel fighters out to try and encircle this apartment building. but that's where the control -- effective control of the forces ends, when he sends them out. they don't have real, sort of good means of communications. we saw them try to talk to each other by mobile phone. the system wasn't working properly. they couldn't always get through. so that's an issue.
and out on the street level, the fighters are very jubilant. they're very youthful. very exuberant. you sense their euphoria. but it doesn't make them an effective, coordinated force. you literally get people, groups of fighters rushing around in pickup trucks with large machine guns on the back, and from where i stand, it looks very chaotic, and seeing the limited communications, i sense that it really is somewhat chaotic, anderson. >> john, something i found so surreal and bizarre and oddly fascinating out of this today was this photo book that they found dedicated to condoleezza rice in gadhafi's compound. page after page of condoleezza rice photos. you can't make this up. >> you can't. and you know, so much of this is relevant to what we saw in baghdad in april of 2003. a regime that presented itself
as populist and socialist, that was not only utterly brutal, but utterly corrupt, living in extraordinary luxury. i'm not sure i would use the word pornography that was used once or twice today to refer to stacks of "playboy" magazines. but living luxurious lives. and with odd things like that. what to make of that, it would be interesting to see what condoleezza rice -- >> that's my first thought, to. how are you going to ask her for a statement about that. it's so bizarre. >> i tell you what did come to my mind looking at that, was that i think we have to acknowledge that there's a good deal of complicity among the western powers. in all of this. a long time gadhafi was the number one bad boy. certainly was for long period before saddam went into kuwait. but then we befriended him.
tony blair went there. condi rice went there. embraced him. the british even returned al ma ra hi who was the only man convicted in the pan am 103 shootdown. it wouldn't be surprising if some of those people who have now liberated libya, as they see it on the ground, with nato air support, unfortunately they are, i know, very grateful, may well begin to ask questions later on about our complicity with the gadhafi regime. which, of course, had a great deal to do with -- in fact, having to do with weapons of mass destruction, but that he had oil. >> john burns, always good to have you on. nic robertson, as well. be careful. the producer who helped negotiate the release of 36 journalists, including herself from the tripoli hotel, for days they were held there by gadhafi loyalists. very emotional ordeal.
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like we were bombing. but he made us look like we're not -- like we're like this third world country. he made us look bad. we want him to know we're well educated, like you, like all the americans, for the whole world. we're just people who live our life. we are a peaceful people. we just want to live our lives, be free. just live like anyone else. >> that's two sisters in tripoli, 18 years old and 23 years old. they now feel free for the first time to show their faces, speak out. they even have a message to gadhafi. stories about the libyan people, the stories themselves. but sometimes they don't have a choice. like the 36 journalists were trapped by loyalists inside that tripoli hotel. they were held hostage for five days. at times forced to lie face down on a floor for 36 hours at a stretch.
they are free, thanks in no small part to a cnn producer. we'll hear from her in just a moment and you'll hear from the two young women in tripoli as well. the sights and sounds inside the rixos hotel, where matthew chance and dozens of other journalists were held captive. take a look. >> we're at the fire exit of the hotel. they just stopped us. we'll show you what's going on outside of the gates of the hotel. i don't know if you'll be able to see much, because it's dark. you can hear the heavy gun shells being fired. john, what's the situation over there? >> just returning fire, small arms. >> okay. in the darkness.
outside our hotel room, you can see, it is not a place you want to be standing up. it's pitch black out there. >> some of matthew chance, cnn's producer jamana was also trapped in the hotel. here's a look at her and matthew talking about their chances for getting out. >> we're worried we're in a very, you know, precarious situation here right now. >> not to use the cliche these days days, very fluid situation. i don't personally believe this is over yet. >> are we going to get out of this, or not get out of this? 50/50, either we will or we won't, right? >> in the end, it was ja mshlgs mana who negotiated the release.
what it came down to, a human interaction between a pro-gadhafi gunman and 29-year-old news producer in which they somehow found common ground. earlier i spoke with her about it. in a situation like this, how do you go about trying to develop a rapport with gunmen, try to figure out a way to get all of you released? how did you do it? >> well, anderson, i spent time in libya, this time in a previous rotation, so i got to know the people there. and there are actually many, many really nice people that i've met over the time i've spent there. and this man was a friendly one. he would always come and check on us. i was spending time with him, having tea, talking to him. it was myself and a few of the other arabic speaking journalists with us. we just built this kind of weird relationship with a guy who was stopping us from leaving. but we did build that relationship.
>> what do you think it was that finally convinced the gunmen to let you go? >> i think, anderson, it was -- there was one turning point where, you know, we really wanted to get out of there. we felt that the hotel was turning into a front line. and we had shells over the hotel. you had sniper bullets coming into, like through the windows. so we really did not feel safe. we all felt that pressure on that last day, on wednesday, that we had to get out of there no matter what. so i just sat with him. i just sat on the floor and i looked at him and i'm like, we need to get out of here. i miss my family. i need to see my family. and i knew he was going through that. because he hadn't seen his family for days. and he was telling me and other journalists about his five children, the youngest of whom is 3 years old. of course, the fighting was going on across the city and he had no news of them because there was no phone lines or power. i think that was the turning point. he got teary when i said i missed my family. he said, okay, let's try to get you out of here.
>> were they receiving instructions in realtime, or were they told just stay here, keep these people here? >> i would say it was very unclear, anderson. we were always trying to figure out what had happened. but it seemed like, you know, as the battle intensified, we were basically forgotten. the initial command was probably just keep them in there, do not let them out. we tried reaching officials, because we were told that the office of gadhafi was in charge of the media there. we tried to work with officials of people who we dealt with. they weren't picking up our calls. >> it's remarkable in one of these situations how quickly you begin to feel the effects of being held against your will. what was it like? >> it was really, really, really tough, anderson. i think the good thing that helped us all was that in this group of more than 30 people in that hotel, that it was a really good group of people. but of course, there were those moments where you were imagining
every possible scenario of what could happen to us. what were they going to do to us. are they going to leave us in there. are they going to use us as human shields possibly. >> what was the toughest moment for you? >> there were a few tough moments. like in the early days, i think it was on the second day, on sunday, we had lost power in the hotel. and it was two wings in the hotel. we tried to move from one wing to the other. and as i was walking past, i got basically caught in a conversation with one of the gunmen. and he was waving an ak-47 as he was talking to me. i must tell you, that was one of the scariest moments for me. i could see out of the corner of my eye, people in the lobby were slowly moving away. so it was me, him and a few other gunmen. he said you are the journalists two are trying to turn libya into iraq and create a blood bath here. i really don't know how i got out of that one, but we did. >> you went back to the hotel, i think this morning, to get your stuff.
it has now been taken over by opposition fighters who escorted you in. what do you think happened to all those gunmen who were holding you? did they just disappear? >> well, they did start disappearing, anderson, on wednesday, our last day there. and we were all look ing ing at 6:00 by other colleagues there's some movement, get up. that's when we started to realize we saw them moving out of the hotel. we really had no sense of how many, anderson, there were. because we could count at a time maybe a dozen, on some days we could count up to 16 gunmen. obviously that day, it was only the older men that i told you about, was the one we could see, and the younger guy who was also there. >> you've been through an incredible thing, not just been through it, but helped end it. and just extraordinary work. producers are called on to do many things in this business, but you obviously went above and beyond. so thank you. and thanks for talking to us.
>> thaunk. >> remarkable young woman. more on hurricane irene. we learned in the past few minutes that the martin luther king jr. memorial dead xags in washington has been postponed because of the approaching storm. more on that ahead. scary possibilities for new york city, if it takes a direct hit from irene. water coming through tunnels, jfk airport underwater. we'll talk to a hurricane expert about what could happen in new york this weekend. hi there! that's not going to satisfy you. it's time for a better snack. here, try this. it's yoplait greek. it has two times the protein of regular yogurt. you'll feel satisfied. [ female announcer ] yoplait greek. it is so good. it's pretty good! you'd do that for me? really? yeah, i'd like that. who are you talking to? uh, it's jake from state farm. sounds like a really good deal. jake from state farm at three in the morning. who is this? it's jake from state farm.
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cat 2 by the time it actually hit new york city? >> correct. it would run all the way over new jersey. now, look, we're talking 50 miles one way or the other. that's 30, 35, 40 hours away. if this is over new jersey, the entire time, this storm will lose some power. if it's just offshore, anderson, it still could be that cat 2, 2 1/2, i don't think 3, because the water's colder up here. but it would not lose as much energy as it would if it would just run over new jersey the entire time.
i'm talking between atlantic city and princeton of the and run on up the turnpike. that would lose a lot of energy. it would steal a lot of energy, because the eye is not over water. that's the potential there. there you go. this is the map. this is the map of inundays. there are the ships. there are the tall ships, all the way in here. if you come around here on the other side as well, you can actually see that part of the world trade tower complex, and i know you've been there, what did they do to the complex, they dug it out. that dig-out is right there, there are the cranes right there, water would fill in there. this is only from about an 85 or 100-mile-per-hour storm. the other side toward hoboken, meadowlands, very flat. across from new york city, you know there's no topography until you get up to the palisades a little farther to the west from there. but the potential energy coming in with a storm pushing all of that water up the east river,
and up the hudson, could be tremendous. >> so i can't -- my eyes aren't that good. so how deep does it go across the island of manhattan down there? are you talking about, is that water going up one side to the other? >> it does not. >> okay. >> it pushes into the battery. it gets -- you know, this is the wall street district. this would be lower manhattan. right here, this is battery park. so it would completely flood the piers that the staten island ferry would come in. all that would be completely yinds water. some of those piers float in all that. this is what we consider to be a category 2. so the water would still be here. i'm not talking more than maybe just a couple three feet deep in some spots. but if you have one foot of water running down the stairwell into the subway, it's going to be very hard for the subways to pump that water out. there are big pumps in the subway, i understand that. but it's not rainwater at this point, it's rushing water down those stairwells.
that could be a true problem for transportation for manhattan for quite some time. a turn to the right, eliminates this possibility. a turn to the left, completely eliminates the possibility because it runs over the poconos and into the adirondacks and you don't get this kind of push of water. i'm going to do one more thing. while i'm there, could you push -- put what a category 4 hurricane would do. it's the red one. and this is kind of what you were asking. would it completely inundate a part of the island. yes. a category 4 would completely wash over the southern part of the island, up here into the south street seaport, completely, all wet. there's nothing. so this is the threat. this is not the storm. this is not the category 4, end of the world storm. this is not the day after tomorrow, whatever that movie was. but the potential inundation is right here. >> i want to bring you into this conversation. i want to bring in my next guest, also steven flynn, who
writes a lot about infrastructure, and knows a great deal about -- sorry. someone was talking in my ear. steven flynn, who's author of a book "the edge of disaster," rebuilding a resilient nation, also president of the center for national policy. steven, i appreciate you joining us. from your perspective, what are you most concerned about as you see this storm approach? >> well, what is clearly the scenario we saw laid out, if this is a direct hit on new york city, or even if it goes a little bit to the east and hits the long island sound, and you push a lot of water up on areas, a few years ago when they had a severe storm back in the '30s, most people weren't living in some of these places. but now we have a lot of population density, and we have a more aged infrastructure. some of the stories we've been talking about, around -- the systems are breaking down. >> put the red one back in, please.
>> the systems are breaking down. so the stress means we're going to have disruption. and what clearly will happen here, is we all need to be better prepared. there's so much professionals can do. there's world class professional emergency managers in the new york city, connecticut, and long island area. this is an all-hands evolution to get a major storm like in. >> we're talking power outages, subways stop running because obviously they're underground. if there's water down in there. a major disruption for the city. >> long island, remember, it's an island with 7.5 million people on it. and it only gets out by people going through the queens and the bronx. it's a low-lying area in the western part. there's going to be a lot of flooding. it will knock down power lines, a lot of trees, the transit system will be disrupted. if long island were a state, it would be the 13th largest state. there are about 5,400 people per square mile. this is a little more difficult
than what we're used to handling on the west coast. people are more spread out. and people are out of practice. hurricanes of this scale, something that the region hasn't faced in recent time. >> i've been talking to -- i was on the subway today as i said earlier talking to new yorkers. you go down to florida, louisiana, people kind of more or less know how to prepare, what to do. here, people are kind of like, not even sure to take it seriously or not. it's hard to say. you don't want to put undue, you know, undue fear with people. chad, how much is it likely -- i mean, we're now -- mayor bloomberg earlier said meteorologically, we are quite a distance from this event. how much is it likely to change between now and then? >> well, the potential change is still pretty great at this point in time. our left and right potential of this storm, anderson, still, we know in 12 hours that it's only
going to be about 25 miles that way, or 25 miles that way. that's the bottom of the cone. it's very small. the error in 12 hours is very minute. but then after 24 hours, the models aren't so good. they're maybe 50 miles one way or the other. and 24, 36, 48, we're still three and a half days away from this storm getting all the way up into new england. and it could be to the right. if this hits the eastern end of long island, honestly, there's no threat really for new york city. not like i was just showing you. with some of those maps. the threat would be long island. the threat would be from montauk, for boston, and into rhode island. can you imagine if you get all that water into newport, and funnel it into providence, we're talking about the same type of funneling effect in providence that you would have in new york city, from a landfall just about 60 or 80 miles farther to the east. >> and stephen, you think this would be a day or two of inconvenience.
if it's a direct hit in new york, the folks in the city could feel the impacts for some time to come. >> it could be many days. the good news is, they have time to prepare. the basics are, people should have a kit, basically have the things they need to camp out in their home or apartment for three days. the second is to have a plan, to know where they would go, should they have to evacuate, and the kit-to-go bag. they need to stay informed. a little bit to the left, a little bit to the right, could make a big difference. but we have information now, minimum thing for new yorkers, they should go on the office emergency management's website and find out if they live in a place that's a flood zone. if they're in this category 1 area, that is a useful piece of information to have. let's use the time, is what i encourage people, to get smart, learn a little bit about what you could be up against and develop that plan. >> no point panicking or getting freaked out, but it is good to prepare and know about the potential that's out there. >> yeah.
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all right. let's get an update now on the path of hurricane irene. meteorologist chad myers joins us from atlanta. >> the very latest, anderson, the 11:00 advisory, a few changes here. movement north at 13. that means the turn to the north is completed. that right-hand turn we talked about all week. winds are still 115 miles per hour, but the storm right now has a perfect eye. that right there means the storm is getting stronger and it will continue to get stronger overnight. so here we are off the coast of florida. very big waves off the coast of florida. and you can't be out there in the surf or let the kids or even the pets for that matter in the surf. they don't know what they're doing with that. the winds still and the tracks still right over north carolina. cape hatteras maybe a little bit to the west at 105 miles per hour, maybe even 110. saturday afternoon. saturday evening right over and