tv World Business Today CNN October 14, 2011 1:00am-2:00am PDT
he says the park needs to be cleaned. they say it is an excuse to push them out. protesters may get help from the members of the united auto workers union. it could be a lively morning and we will have sean penn on the show tomorrow night who i'm sure will have his own view on what is going on wall street. that's all for us tonight. hello, i'm monita rajpal at cnn london. here are the top stories right now. in libya, hundreds of die-hard loyalists to moammar gadhafi continues to mount a continue defensive in the leader's hometown. prime minister silvio berlusconi will face a confidence vote in parliament today. it was forced after the italian parliament failed to approve an article of the country's budget. italy is battling to keep itself
from getting dragged down bit euro zone debt crisis and many italians are unhappy with his leadership. the brute force of floodwaters is wreaking havoc around southeast asia. it is worse around thailand. the cresting river is expected to pass through the city at weekend. nationwide, 283 people have been killed by heavy rain and flood. occupy wall street protesters may be headed for another confrontation with police. new york mayor michael bloomberg says protesters must leave the park a section at a time so it can be cleaned up beginning this morning. a spokesperson for the group says it's an attempt to evict them. those are the headlines from cnn, the world's news leader. i'm monita rajpal. "world business today" starts right now.
good morning from cnn london, i'm nina dos santos. >> and a very good afternoon from cnn hong kong, i'm andrew stevens. welcome to "world business today." it's friday. the top stories on -- >> g20 finance ministers meet in paris. >> slowing slowly. china's inflation rate eases but food costs are still a worry. and it's semifinals weekend at the rugby world cup. we'll take a look at which teams have the psychological advantage. first off, let's get straight to what's moving across the european stock markets today. it's bad new for the spanish prime minister and also the finance minister. spain's debt has been downgraded just late yesterday by standard & poors.
it took it down one notch, aa to aa minus. it gave it a negative outlook as well, citing slowing growth, weakening financial system and persistently high unemployment which we should add is around about 21% across spain. the major banks have been downgraded earlier this week. it's more bad news for these two characters here. the euro is trading at 1.3748 at the moment against the green back. the british pound as well, pretty much flat against the u.s. dollar and the japanese yen down by 0.1%. that's trading at 76.92. if we move on to the stock markets, broadly speaking we've seen optimism ahead of the g20 finance minister's meeting, though some of the markets did flirt with red arrows just about half an hour ago. the ftse 100 up by 0.4%. it's a similar picture across the board. let's have a look at how the
markets have fared so far this year. the ftse has regained quite a bit of lost ground. it's down 8.25% this year. it was down in the double digits earlier on last month and the cac 40 and dax down by about 15% so far this year. andrew, broadly speaking, ahead of that g20 finance minister's meeting in paris, things are looking optimistic where i am. >> good to see. certainly a lot more red arrows on this side of the world. one of the reasons there are red arrows is because big economic news came out of china today. it's the cpi numbers, which is inflation. it came in at 6.1% in september. now, that was less than forecast, they were forecasting 6.2%. it's down from 6.2% in the previous month. but still it is too high. way too high. beijing has been aiming for a rounded about 4%. one of the big problems, as you see in this picture, food.
food prices are one of the key concerns for the government. talking about some of the sectors that we're moving here in asia. auto stocks, taking a hit today. a lot of the exporters getting more and more concerned about what's happening in europe and the slowdown there. that was reflected in stock prices today. honda down 2.3%, nissan 1.6%, toyota, 1.7%, all down because of the concerns about the euro zone. you can seat concerns still playing out on the broader markets as well. shanghai, down that inflation number is wore rig investors there, down by 0.3%. what that inflation number means is it will be less likely that china can cut interest rates to stir up economic growth if it needs to. hong kong down 1.3%. the s&p down by about 1%. nina, if you look at the broader index, the morgan stanley index for all of asia, this is the first time in seven days that
we've seen negative numbers across the board. >> yes. we are going in the opposite direction, aren't we at the moment, andrew? it was a mixed day on thursday for the major u.s. markets. banking stocks fell after a lackluster third quarter result from jp morgan chase. that's the nation's seconds largest bank. technology stocks bucked the broader trend. the dow jones industrial average closed down nearly 0.4%. the s&p lost nearly 0.3%. the nasdaq gained 0.6%. revenue was the thing that fell, down by about 11% year-on-year. profits were slightly lower on the whole. after the closing bell, we also saw google announcing its third quarter results. they handily beat analyst estimates. they gave optimism, especially
to the technology sector. they said its 3-month-old social networking site has 0 million users. google shares rose by 6% in after-hours trading. >> certainly big numbers coming out of google. let's take a look at what the u.s. is likely to do at the open today. remember, the dow is pointing towards a higher open. the nasdaq around about the same, the s&p virtually flat, at least at this hour. nina? andrew, let's go back to the top story dominating the agenda here in europe today. g20 finance ministers are meeting in paris today to try and thrash out some kind of a plan to strengthen the euro zone's faltering economy. christine lagarde will be present along with timothy geithner, ben bernanke and mervyn king. in the meantime, lyle brainard has been commenting and saying
that the european debt crisis represents the most serious risk to the global recovery to date. ahead of today's meeting she's been saying the that consequences of plans to resolve this issue are growing by the day. and a five-point plan was announced to address europe's problems, saying leaders should agree at a council meeting scheduled for october 23th. we go to jim bitterman, live from france. the euro zone debt crisis will be dominating the agenda at this g20 finance minister's meeting. is there any sense that the world's emerging markets may to a certain extent come to help out the euro zone crisis. everybody has something at stake. >> exactly. i think that's probably what there is some expectation of. the fact is here, everybody has an idea what these ministers
that are gathering here, these high level officials should be doing. the question is will they do it? when they start meeting a few hours from now. what you said about europe is absolutely true. there is a growing frustration, i think, outside of europe that the europeans have not done a better job at managing the greek crisis. other sovereign debt crisis within the european community, that they haven't done mar. this is something that barross said they haven't done to strengthen the fund brought into play to help solve sovereign debt crisis in the various countries, that they're not doing more to strengthen the banks. this is something that played out this morning when the official ratings agency announced after the markets closed last night that in fact the ratings are now seven banks on ratings watch, including three right here in france. so there's a number of financial issues to address here,
including on the sidelines of the european question, this whole dispute between the united states and china about free trade and freedom of exchange rates. there's a lot on the agenda, whether the finance ministers will get around to any of it or come to a consensus on any of it is another real question. nina? >> the only thing that's sure is there will be plenty of talk. whether there will be action, that's the trillion dollar question. jim bitterman joining us from paris. thanks for the update. andrew? >> certainly no lack of people, numbers of people talking about the euro crisis. as europe struggles to deal with the debt crisis, rising economic powers are looking for places to park their wealth. they're all too aware if europe sinks they'll be dragged down with it. so will the emerging countries throw the europeans a financial life line? john defterios has more. >> reporter: a stone's throw from the abu dhabi downtown water front, it is hard to miss
major construction work, hotel and apartment towers. and road building. it does not look as if there's scope for a recession here or heading east to asia, where growth is expected to average more than 8% next year. but former british prime minister gordon brown says european disunity caused by debt problems in greece and elsewhere cannot be ignored by the fast-growing countries of the world. >> all this emphasizes is that what happens in one continent affects another. and that we have to have a better system of international cooperation for the future. >> reporter: after the 2008 banking crisis as prime minister, brown pushed for greater coordination by ushering the g20 group of nations. in part to tap those with vast surpluses. that same refrain is being sung today, obvious ports of call for european governments in search of liquidity would be the sovereign funds, some, of course, which is based here in
the gulf. the dynamics have changed over the past three years. after the arab spring, for example, more money is staying closer to home. china has the most weight to throw around with more than $3 trillion at hand in foreign reserves. add the other bric countries, brazil, russia and india and the tally is more than $4 trillion. if middle east sovereign funds are thrown into the pool, there's another $1.4 trillion. an imf executive board member says don't expect the taps to be opened on a grand scale. >> it doesn't mean you won't see isolated transactions or hear a lot of good words being spoken that will attempt to stabilize the markets. we haven't seen huge, tens, hundreds of balls of dollars of capital being redeployed as a result of some desire to stabilize the global system. >> isolated transaction include moves by the amir of qatar.
china has held talks with italy and spain about the purchase of multibillion euro bond transactions but there are strings atachd. >> we have seen the chinese leadership in the past couple of weeks come out with a couple of statements about basically indicating, yes, we are going continue vest in european assets but there are a couple of conditions that we would like to see be met by europe and the united states. >> reporter: it's a buyer's market for those with surplus funds but with other priorities such as development closer to home. john defterios, cnn, abu dhabi. coming up next on "world business today," a murdoch newspaper is in the spotlight again. we'll take a look at accusations of unfair play at "the wall street journal." that's just ahead on the show. e, each day was fueled by thorough preparation for events to come. well somewhere along the way, emily went right on living.
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wrath rajaratnam was convicted of conspiracy and fraud in may. he's been sentenced to 11 years. he was also fined $10 million and must forfeit another 53 million in illegal profits. the government was pushing for a sentence between 19 and 24 years. the judge there rejected calls for a tougher sentence on the grounds of rajaratnam's ill health. welcome back to "world business today." you're watching cnn. >> we've had the insider trading case, protests and now we have allegations of impropriety against the newspaper that bears the street's very name. "the wall street journal's" european edition is in the spotlight after a report focusing on its circulation figures. jim bolden has all the details.
>> reporter: when rupert murdoch was hauled before british lawmakers back in july it was all about phone hacking by his now shut "news of the world" sunday newspaper. that appearance was the culmination of a story broken by "the guardian" newspaper. this week "the guardian" has turned ats tension to murdoch's most prestigious title, "the wall street journal". "9 guardian" used the word scam to claim circulation figures were inflated in order to attract advertising. "the wall street journal" has hit back in a press release, it says "the guardian" article is replete with untruths and malign interpretations. still, the journal admits that one deal to distribute copies of the paper to students through a consulting firm was admittedly complex but nevertheless legitimate. but the journal does say it's no longer comfortable with the appearance of the distribution
deal and that such deals have ceased even though it says its european circulation numbers were audited and approved. britain's media trade journal "the press gazette" -- >> they have 75,000 but they would certainly spend time emphasizing to advertisers that they are selecting the key business decisionmakers of europe. >> reporter: while this involves the rather arcain way newspapers are give an way to students at events or to hotels, to some its hard to separate this from the ongoing phone hacking scandal. >> fair play to "the guardian." >> reporter: when murdoch took over "the wall street journal" and its parent dow jones in 2007, there was a promise of editorial independence. journalists at "the wall street
journal" itself are also investigating the circulation story. and how it's lunged to the stepping down of a top dow jones executive on tuesday. jim bolden, cnn, london. for months thailand has been inundated by torrential rain, much the country is under water and now the floodwaters are reaching the outskirts of the commercial heart of bangkok. businesses are being forced to take drastic measures. we'll update you when we come back. insurance ? watch this. on one hand, you have your home insurance with one company. and on another hand, you have your auto with another. and on another hand, you have your life with another. but when you bundle them all together with nationwide insurance, they all work together perfectly and you could save 25%. wow... it's all in the wrists. ♪ nationwide is on your side ♪
a dramatic scene in northern china a little earlier today. that plane you saw there is a flying leopard fighter and it came down at an air show in a province on friday morning. no casualties. witnesses say the pilot ejected before it began its nose dive. welcome back. you're watching "world business today" live on cnn. southeast asia is continuing to get soaked by unprecedented floodwaters caused by weeks of monsoon rains. in thailand, officials say more than a billion cubic meters of water is reaching parts of bangkok every single day. that's where paula hancocks filed this report. >> reporter: this is a
neighborhood, an eastern suburb of the capital. this is a perfect example of many other areas around the inner city of the capital, bangkok, that are affected by the flood. water here has been here for at least three days. the water levels are expected to rise as more than 1 billion cubic meters a day is reaching bangkok. now, for this particular area, it is one of the areas the government is willing to sacrifice so that the business district is not affected. this area is sandwiched in between the river on this side and the flood gates on the other side, which are protecting the inner city. you can see the chaos it has created. the water itself has turned many of these roads into rivers and obviously there are gridlock as people are trying to go about their business but obviously it's very difficult. many cars getting stuck in the water. now, of course, there ask another fear for this neighborhood. this is the time of the high
tides as well as seeing a deluge of water coming from northern parts of thailand, from the 13th to the 16th of october they are also seeing high tide. there's concern that the two will meet in the middle and make these waters rise even further. we have seen significant flood gates being built up around the inner city, millions of sandbags are being use and the government is waste nothing resources to try and protect those areas. here people are having to fend for themselves a little more. they will get some sandbags handed out to them. it's almost a futile attempt to protect their homes, protect their shops as many of these places are already flooded. paula hancocks, cnn, in the eastern suburb in thailand. now, the floods have been inundating large swaths of thailand for a number of months. it's only in recent days that bangkok and its thriving central business district has been put
at risk. this is the famous river that runs right through the thai capital, past some of the most recognizable landmarks. this is the palace. and the water level of the rougher continues to rise. businesses are taking drastic action to protect their livelihoods. we'll bring this up. you see the river running through the heart of the city. we've been speaking to several of the city's luxury hotels, including the mandarin oriental, the marriott and the sheridan. they say they have taken drastic measures. submersible pumps have been installed, safety zones have been marked out and a fleet of boats have been prepared. for all now it's preemptive. it's still business as usual, nina, but certainly people are
expecting things to change over the next few days. >> it has been a dramatic situation over the last couple of weeks, andrew. let's turn our attention towards sports now. it's the next to last weekend in the rugby world cup with two pi. will the wallbies seize the psychological involvement? does medicare alone meet your needs? would additional coverage be better for you? well, now is a good time to take a look at an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. get started by calling for your free information kit and guide to medicare. as you probably know, medicare only covers about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. a medicare supplement insurance plan helps cover some of it.
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let's take another look at how the stock markets are faring and the stories moving these markets first off. in spain, these two characters, the prime minister jose luis rodriguez zapatero and his finance minister, elena salgado will decide what to do today after standard & poors brought it down one notch from aa to aa minus. s&p cited slowing growth, weakening financial system and persistently high unemployment for this country. unemployment in spain i should mention is well above 20%. let's have a look at how all of this is affecting the currencies, in particular, the euro. the euro and the pound up a fraction against the u.s. dollar. the japanese yen falling, down to 76.96 is where we are at the market. we've seen optimism ahead of today's key g20 finance minister's meeting. big question there is we've seen more talk about what to do about
the euro zone crisis or some kind of proposals and concrete action. also the world's emerging markets step up to the plate and help people solve the euro zone crisis because everybody has something at stake. these gains push substantially higher in the last half hour or so. we saw the markets up by not quite 4%. they're pushing towards the 1% plus mark, especially the cac 40 and the dax. >> that optimism continues. we've seen a few days of rallies of optimism over europe getting its debt crisis under control. let's take a quick look at what's happening here. before we get to the actual numbers, the biggest story to hear in asia today, coming out of china, latest inflation numbers. it came in at 6.1% in september. now that was less than forecast. that was a little better than expected. it's down from 6.2% in august.
it was 6.5% if you go back another month in july. the problem remains that food prices are still high. pictures like this in local markets, you're seeing a big problem for food prices. that is the thing that really worries beijing. at 6.1% headline inflation, also well above the beijing target of 4%. it also cuts the likelihood of beijing cutting interest rates if it thinks it needs to to stimulate its own economy, which is starting too slow, down a bit. one sector of the asian markets which took a hit today, the auto sector, particularly in japan. that's based on fears about the japanese carmakers exposure to europe, a key export market for the european carmakers. honda down 2.3% nissan 1.6%, toyota 1.7%. the impact on the broader markets, this is what asia ended the week looking like, all red
arrows. the nikkei, helped dragged down by the automakers. shanghai, down 1.3%. australia down by almost 1%. as we were saying there has been a pretty strong rally in a lot of the global markets over the past ten days or so. and if you look at the morgan stanley capital index, a measure of all the asian markets, this is the first time in seven days that we've seen the red arrows on a broad index. it has been a pretty strong rally, perhaps not surprising that people are taking a few profits now. >> yes. and stocks where you are in asia have done substantially better than stocks where i am during the course of this week. now that you're up to date with the markets in asia and the markets in europe, let's take a look at the united states. u.s. markets look set for a relatively flat open when trading begins later on today. this is where the u.s. futures stand. the premarket indications are that we could see the s&p 500
lose a little bit of ground although modestly when it starts trading later on today. dow jones industrial average and nasdaq composite futures up by about 0.25% at the moment. >> they've been reporting for a long time now about this swing between pessimism and optimism over whether europe can clean up its act. the big meeting today of g20 finance ministers and central bank governors in paris will be more closely watched than usual. france itself hasn't been immune to the fiscal belt tightening. the french are worried that their own safety net could be starting to unravel. jim bitterman have this report. >> reporter: this couple know a lot about the economic crisis. two years ago at the age of 57, he lost his white collar job as marketing director for a software company and the couple's lifestyle immediately changed. she stopped stopping at local merchants and open air markets. now like many french hunts for
bargains at discount supermarkets. >> people are like me. they are looking at prices. >> reporter: her husband worries that what's left of the family's nest egg could be wiped out if their bank is forced off to write off a large amount of bonds it holds in heavily indebted countries like greece. >> you have a minimum protected by the state but the rest could fly away. >> reporter: worse, he says is a seemingly endsless series of austerity measures the government is rolling out, not the least of which is the retireme retirement. >> my wife was retiring. that was our plan. we pay 25% tax on our salary to afford it. we've been really disappointed. >> reporter: disappointment is more like anger for many french. a few days ago, demonstrations took place across the country to protest the government austerity measures. in paris, many who marched were young people who have to pay more for their university education which used to be free
and who have been hit with cutbacks in the state-run health care system that make private health care insurance more and more a necessity. >> i'm working to pay what i can in. it's so expensive. >> reporter: those health care cutbacks worry this man as well. he lost his private insurance when he lost his job. now at age 59 he's at least found part-time employment which will restore the insurance. overall, though, he estimates the family lifestyle is today only 60% of what it was two years ago. and his wife says, the couple has very little hope things will improve for them, for france or for europe in the immediate future. >> because we have the feeling today with the government, that laws are changing every day. there's no strategy for us. i feel it like that. >> reporter: that sense that governments have no real plan to
deal with the crisis that only seems to be getting worse is perhaps the greatest concern here. a concern that has not disappeared no matter how many times the g20 leaders have met for meetings like the one scheduled this weekend. jim bitterman, cnn, paris. occupy wall street protesters may be headed for another confrontation with police. the new york mayor michael bloomberg says protesters must leave the park a section at a tim so it can be cleaned up beginning this morning. a spokesman for the group says it's an attempt to evict them. they'll clean the park themselves. protesters have been occupying the park since september 17. the group's website is calling on protesters to protect the space this morning. >> this is so important. what's happening here is bigger than take us -- i just think -- i have a feeling i have a lot of weight on me and a lost people here do as well. i don't stop very often and
think about these things because you've got to keep going. and right now, when you asked me that question, i feel that enormity again. it's not me personally, an egoing thing, it's more, these are things i've always held very close in my heart. people coming together and sharing that, people from all over the world. it would really break my heart and i would cling to this because it matters more than anything else in the world. >> as that gentleman suggests, the movement certainly is spreading across america and around the world. in asia, there are several protests planned this weekend from hong kong to tokyo and to seoul. protests are also planned in sydney, melbourne and brisbon. wales and france square off on saturday and australia and new zealand battle it out on sunday. australia/new zealand will be somewhat of a grudge match.
earlier cnn's own wallaby's fan rosemary church asked jack thame how they would try to gain an advantage. >> it's all up here. in the last couple of weeks they've been hit by serious injuries. the key playmaker, dan carter, is probably considered the best rugby player in the world, suffered a tournament-ending groin injury. it's an ironic joke. he doubles as an underwear model. as you can imagine, there run fortunate large billboards around new zealand cities at the moment of the injured groin. and saying that they brought in another player to replace him and the management seems confident he will do all right.
last week, the replacement already had an injury to the groin. for new zealand, their weakness is a lack of experience. we have a young man named aaron cruden who is just 22. two and a half weeks ago he was sitting on the couch, having a holiday from rugby. he was expecting to be at disneyland in the united states last weekend. now he's right into the thick of it against australia on the biggest stage. >> the games will kick off at 9:00 p.m. in new zealand on saturday. that is 4:00 p.m. in hong kong. the game between australia and the new zealand will be on sunday. >> they don't want to be known as the team that has problems around the groin area. there you have it. that's it for this edition of "world business today." thanks for joining us, i'm andrew stevens in hong kong.
>> and i'm nina dos santos in london. you're watching cnn, the world's news leader. it's good-bye for now. arnold palmer's story is an inspiring golf and business performance. while rising to the pinnacle of the golf world, he had a vision, to become an esteemed entrepreneur, golf course designer, tv pioneer, philanthropist and an inspiration to his army of fans. >> i achieved success beyond golf. but business owners today need
this week on marketplace middle east, crude concerns. we look at how middle east producers are bracing themselves for an even further drop. plus, the regional outlook. we speak to a pair of leading oil experts about coping with the prospect of lower revenues. middle east oil producers are keeping a wary eye on global demand, concerns about an economic slowdown and possible contagion affect have sent oil prices down some 6% this year. this week, the international energy agency downgraded its forecast because of the state of the economy. that means lower revenues for this region's oil producers.
and we found out, many of them are already planning ahead. >> reporter: the parallels are uncanny. in the aftermath of the lehman collapse in 2008, the credit crisis, along with fears of a global downturn, sent crude prices plummeting more than 60% in three months. today it's a similar picture. between june and september, oil spiraled 20% lower, signs of slowing consumer spending in the u.s., the credit crisis surrounding greece and much of the euro zone are also weighing on commodities. >> if we see a real credit crunch, financial crisis with massive sell-offs of assets, of equities but also commodities, that will certainly have an impact on oil prices. >> reporter: much of middle eastern oil is shipped east to two of the world's largest oil consumers, china and india. now signs of slower growth in those markets are raising
concerns amongst the region's producers. >> we need to keep a close eye on demand. i'm not predicting a major demand slump, i'm simply warning that we have to remain alert, ready to respond to a changing situation, in particular, to growing concerns. all while the economy has an inevitable impact on oil prices. >> reporter: in the midst the arab spring, middle east governments are being forced to increase spending to satisfy the welfare and needs of their people. that means the region's main oil producers need higher crude prices to earn more revenue and cope with that extra spending. as the political situation in the middle east remains volatile, the amount of oil that can be pumped into the markets may be limited if there's a shortage. >> there isn't that much capacity outside of saudi arabia. you've had declines in other parts of the world from the
u.s., from the north sea. and the only place where you have some excess capacity is the middle east and the middle east at the moment you're having game changes every day. >> reporter: nymex crude prices are in the $80 range. they're still far from the 2008 prices where oil fell to less than $40 a barrel. but with the cloud of the euro zone debt, hints of another global recession and the uncertainty in the middle east, the region's oil producers will be looking towards a more sustainable strategy. leoni lakhani for marketplace middle east, abu dhabi. we have the chairman of advisory firm facts global energy. he represented iran in opec. issam al chalabi retired from government services in 1991 during the gulf war and is now
an independent consultant. i sat down with them both and asked about the growing concerns over oil prices. >> i think worries about the economic situation in the west, united states and europe and the rest of the world is really affecting the situation in terms of the oil market. >> would you say 75, 80 is a realistic floor for global oil prices right now? >> i think the answer is yes. if there is more oil coming from libya, there will be less coming from saudi arabia. the barrels can be kept by the policemen. i think the saudis play a role of balancing this market. >> are we going to have a repeat of 2008 when there was too much production on the market? >> i don't think so. i think that we've learned a lot from 2008-2009 period.
i think even if there is a severe reduction in demand it can be balanced. >> i think everything will go gradually. nothing will happen all of a suddenen. >> you don't see a collapse? >> i don't think it will collapse all of a sudden. i think it will take some time. >> you were the former minister of iraq, under the rule of saddam hussein. have you seen opec torn apart at this sort of juncture between different countries? >> all countries have its ups and downs. in the mid-80s there were also some severe kriss when saudi arabia decided not to play anymore. nowadays, i don't see repetition of what happened before. they could be back but as long as saudi arabia is on the steering wheel, that will be it. >> so are we confident that saudi arabia is at the steering wheel, producing nearly 10 million barrels a day. what is more important for them at this juncture, preserve the floor of $75 or rather preserve
the production of nearly $10 milli -- 10 million barrels a day. >> i think the price. stability is most important. what is different compared to the past, opec being torn apart, it doesn't really matter anymore. only one which has the biggest muscle. even if the rest of the opec says i want to go a different direction, the saudis on their own can manage it. >> how much spare capacity is there in the region? our discussion with fereidun fesharaki and chalabi continues when we come back. and then, in one blinding blink of an eye, their tree had given its last. but with their raymond james financial advisor, they had prepared for even the unthinkable.
around two-thirds of the world's oil reserves lie right here in the middle east with the largest, of course, in saudi arabia. there could be plenty more to be discovered, both iran and iraq have said their reserves could be much higher than previously estimated. but there's been much debate about how much of each of these countries actually has in terms of proven reserves, the prove i brought up with oil analyst fedeidun fesharaki and iraq's former oil minister, issam al chalabi, as our discussion continues. >> the numbers are what comes out of the governments. none of them are satisfied. we done the know for sure, we know it is a lot. it may even be more than what they say. nobody has gone to the length of certifying it for a good reason. >> the reserves in this region is the highest. okay? it's the largest in the world. and particularly among the five countries surrounding the gulf. among them they have almost two-thirds of the oil reserve. the question is what -- how much
each one has. it's what the governments say. what iraq has, it's plenty of oil, as such we have so much probable and possible reserves that could be converted into proven reserves. the figure of 115 i think has been accepted by the world market as a reality. and that was followed immediately within a few days by iran saying, huh-uh, no, we have 150 million barrels. i think if iraq jumped to say we have 155, iran would have said we have 160. i think we've had enough of that. i think it takes a while before we know how much reserves each has. >> iran has been making proclamations that it wants to get to 10 million barrels a day by the end of the decade. are they not being realistic about how they're beginning to get there.
>> definitely they have not been re realistic. i think the whole world knows they have not been realistic and they have not been taking seriously. if you look at the figures by the institutions, the think tanks, they don't give 10 million barrels or 12 million barrels a day for iraq. the figures range between 4 million and 6 million barrels a day between the years of 2020 and 2030. >> we know the impact of war on the ability of a country. can it get to prewar levels in 18 months? >> our scenario is about 600,000 to 800,000 by december. and within 12 to 18 months beyond that to get to the 1.6. so it is very much within that 18-month theme. >> i think we need to be a little bit patient.
gadhafi is still running around somewhere in libya. they need to look into the fields properly. they need to investigate. i would go on a slower pace. i think by the end of the year we go 200,000, 300,000 barrels a day. the rest, everything will depend on the state of the intallation. 18 months to 24 months more likely to go back to the 1.6 million barrels a day. >> once again our energy roundtable this week. let's take a look at other headlines in the region. blackberry users in the middle east experienced days of disruption. disruptions were reported on four continents. although research in motion said it fixed the problem. this comes amid reports that some investors are pushing for a sale of rim. the qatari royal family has plans to take over part of dexia. qatar was willing to buy the luxembourg unit of the struggling lender on short
notice. precision capital also said it would buy kbl european bankers for $1.4 billion. and the finance minister in egypt resigned from his post. protests left dozens dead and more than 200 injured. that's all for this edition of cnn marketplace middle east. thanks for watching. i'm john defterios. we'll see you next week.