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tv   Fareed Zakaria GPS  CNN  November 17, 2013 10:00am-11:01am PST

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and thank you for watching "state of the union." i'm candy crowley in washington. if you missed part of today's show, find us on itunes and search "state of the union." fareed zakaria gps starts right now. i'm karen mcginnis in the severe weather center. we want to update you on the potential for severe storms across the great lakes region this afternoon. but generally speaking from the great lakes all the way down to the gulf coast. but the high risk, which is encompassing about 19 million people under the threat for a risk of severe weather today, which includes high winds, strong to severe thunderstorms, and the potential for tornadoes. right now we've got several areas with tornado warnings, which have been issued. we have storm chaser video. we'll have that throughout the afternoon and we'll bring you that latest information. right now a tornado warning goes until 12:15. so another 15 minutes or so. this includes the city of bruce
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and streetor in illinois. we are under the risk, a high risk for severe weather. if you keep it here on cnn, we'll bring you that latest information. i want to show you what's happening, here's the high risk extending from chicago to indianapolis. we'll bring you updates as they warrant. now fareed zakaria begins. this is "gps global public square." welcome to you from around the united states and around the world. we have china's important announcements. beijing says it's one child policy will be relaxed after more than 30 years. and it says it will abolish its infamous labor camps. what's behind these decisions and others? what do they mean? i have to great experts. and five decades after shots rang out in daley plaza killing john f. kennedy.
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the great historian robert cowell will tell us about that day and how it changed america. and the gps checklist for how to ruin a national economy. one country has managed to check off all the boxes. and it's not the united states. i'll explain. but first, here's my take. on wednesday, diplomats from the united states, france, germany, the united kingdom, russia and china, the 5 p5 plus 1 will sit down to hammer out a deal over iran's nuclear program. it's a tough challenge made even tougher by the breakdown of talks in geneva eight days ago. in diplomacy, transparency is an enemy of progress. things in secrecy are a problem, but when carried out in public, it allows every concession being attacked on one side to the
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other side. even imagined concessions get attacked. israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu furiously protested against the deal with iran, even though john kerry said he didn't know what was in it. >> it's a very bad deal. >> one party that did know what was in the proposed agreement was france. the french took the unusual step of breaking ranks with their western colleagues to publicly denounce the deal. >> this has led some to wonder whether frps's strategy was to demonstrate the hard-lined credentials to the middle east, saudi arabia, in particular, and thus gained favor with them. france has signed a multi-billion dollar defense with them in recent months. distancing themselves from america is what they are doing, but whatever france is doing
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seems to have merit. the nuclear reactor under construction in iraq and if completed could easily produce enough weapons of plutonium for one or two weapons per year. however the deal being proposed would have stopped that process from going forward. if france's objections can be assuaged, those of the other opponents cannot. benjamin netanyahu wants them to have no enrichment capacity at all. for iran that's a red line. it's not entirely fair whether netanyahu is a bargaining position or if he'll denounce any deal that allows the iranians to enrich uranium. saudi arabia won't accept any deal no matter what's in it. the islamic republic of iran are exce excesstensial. it's antipathy predates iran's
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nuclear program and will persist whatever the resolution op-ed. then the republicans in the united states, some of whom have a serious objection and others who see this as an easy avenue to outflank president obama on the right. placing him in the familiar spot of a liberal democrat who is selfed on america's foes. supreme leader of the revolutionary guard remain deeply anti-american. they oppose the concessions that president rouhani would have to make to get a deal, but it's now clear the greater obstacles may lie in the path of the negotiators on the other side. the minute any deal is announced, sue dee arabia and israel will denounce it and many republicans will join in, given that congress would have to pass laws to lift any of the major sanctions against iran, this could prove to be an obstacle that cannot be overcome. so obama faces two major
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challenges. first he has to get a deal that hard-liners there can live with. then he has to get one that hard-liners in washington and jerusalem and rio can abide. if he can do both, maybe he'll deserve his nobel peace prize after all. for more, go to cnn.com/fareed and read my "time" column this week. and let's get started. china held a mysterious gathering this week. in the past historic announcements have come out of these meetings. the head of the meeting is relaxation of china's three decades-old one child policy. beijing also announced the end of its notorious so-called reeducation through labor camps. joining me to explain all this, nicholas christoff won one of
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his two pulitzer prizes for tianeman square. welcome. first the one child policy, is this as big a deal as it sounds like? >> um, well, the one child policy is a misnomer because a lot of people have had the chance to have more than one. and on average the chinese family has 1 1/2 children right now, but it is a real relaxation. most people will have a chance to have at least a second child. and that is a real step forward. and it's a promising sign. this is something that's been talked about forever by the chinese government. and it is interesting that the leader was able to push this through. >> liz, this is presumably because they look at the demographic future and lots of people pointed this out, that within only five to seven years, they start to face a labor shortfall and start to have a lot of old people and not enough young workers. >> they are looking at a situation by 2050 a third of the
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population will be over 65 years old, so they are quite concerned, but the truth is this relaxation is unlikely to produce a transformation in the population. really it's just going to be a slight bump, if anything. we're looking at maybe a million or two more children born per year. and it's really not going to take effect for another 17 or 18 years if you start to think about the impact on the labor force. so i think it's a positive step. i think it's a liberalization of social policy from a regime that has not been terribly liberal, but it is not a dramatic shift in policy. >> one of the things that strikes me in asia, as women get more educated and people get rich, the fertility rates drop, they really stop having babies, south korea, japan, singapore, the drop off is dramatic. >> singapore went from having a policy of discouraging women from having more children to overnight switching to encouraging them to have more children.
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and in china, they get to a point where there are a lot of forces that are reducing fertility other than government policy. so this will lead to more children, but many people, you know, especially in the city, just know that the cost of educating your child and such, they don't want to have necessarily everyone having a second child. >> what do we -- first of all, what are labor through reeducation gaps and what does it mean that they are closing? >> the labor through education camps have been around since the late 1950s. and what they basically turned into is an opportunity for local officials to detain and arrest people without children for up to four years. and it's been a mechanism by which not only petty thieves and others can be put away, but also political dissidence and people who complain, petitioners who complain too loudly and cause problems for local officials. so they've had at least, somewhere, maybe 310,000 people
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reportedly have been in these labor reeducation camps. i mean, sometimes they say as many as 2 million have been detained. >> so a step forward again, this is being worn down? >> it's indeed a step forward in the sense this is something reformers have been calling on for a long time. the question, though, is whether the government simply takes these people who had been sent to reeducation labor camps and sent them to more mundane prisons and we don't know the answer yet. >> the big news out of the conference was comprehensive economic reform, legal reform. there were lots of hints that xi xinping was going to do that in his plan, or the plan of 1993, which was a big boost to get the chinese economy on the next big growth trajectory. didn't quite -- there was some announcement but not quite the drama that people had been expecting. >> i think what we have seen is
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in a number of cases the reforms denounced really in affirmation of experiments that are already underway. you land tenure reform, the residency reform, holding officials accountable for pollution, all these things are already experiments underway. i think what president xinping and the chinese leadership has said is we'll push forward with these reforms. the interest rate liberalization, negative investment list, all these things again are things that were put into this reform, this document, sort of announces they were new and big, but really it is an affirmation of things moving forward. >> this is the chinese way, they kind of do it incrementally, they don't do as much of the big announced ban. this was the case where there had been a lot of participation that there might indeed be a bang. so there was a little bit of a
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fizzle. we'll see where it goes, but -- i was disappointed. especially in the fight over state on companies, and there was a real attempt here to slap them down on the part of reformers. it looks as if that failed. >> very quickly, i need a final thought from both of you, many people argue for china to grow at the pace it needs to, it needed this big boost of reforms. do you worry there's going to be a significant drop off in chinese growth without significant reforms? >> i think that's likely to happen, but it may show up in one to three years, not over the next six months. >> what do you think? >> the existing model for the chinese economy needs to be restructured. but that can happen through various ways and not just through a dramatic announcement. >> so we still don't have china to contend with for many, many decades. >> it's a place to watch. up next, typhoon haiynan. why did it hurt the philippines
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so much? could anything be done to have lessened its impact? i have two great experts to explain. mmmhmmm...everybody knows that. well, did you know that old macdonald was a really bad speller? your word is...cow. cow. cow. c...o...w... ...e...i...e...i...o. [buzzer] dangnabbit. geico. fifteen minutes could save you...well, you know.
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the aftermath from typhoon haiyan continues to unfold. beyond the death toll, more than 10 million filipinos have been
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displaced or rendered homeless. why was the impact so bad? and why was the response so slow? in many ways i suppose this was a perfect storm. in any event, i have two great guests joining me to delve into all this. steven flynn is the founding director of the center for resilient studies of northeastern university. he's advised both of the last two presidents on homeland security. and laurie garridy is a senior fellow on the council for foreign relations. steve, first to you, what part of this surprised you in terms of its severity in terms of the force? what took you by surprise? >> well, to some extent what took me by surprise was how slow we were to realize what a tremendous storm this was. it got very little coverage. in fact, i learned about it from a german friend on friday morning last week who shared the images of this incoming storm. right there it was clear that this was going to be a monumental event. with the kinds of wind that were
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being predicted, 190 knots but came in close to 150 knots of wind, that's a tremendous amount of wind to insure devastation in its wake. >> we should have realized this was going to be pretty massive. and we didn't do enough preparation in advance? >> to an extraordinary extent, when it comes to disasters before they hit, time is your friend. and after they hit, it becomes your enemy really quick. and it seem that is we need visuals that there's destruction before we kick into high gear. we have to be much more front-loaded. the fact is, i would argue the department of defense should have been mobilized on friday last week once we knew what was going to happen. we shouldn't have had to wait the two days it took to get the images of the destruction to realize there was real destruction here. when there's that much wind in a storm of that scale, you're going to have devastation. >> do you think the -- the filipino response makes it different from other countries you have seen that have handled natural calamities and disasters
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like this? >> we really have to put in the context this is one of the largest storms to hit a landmass in recorded history. so anybody's going to be overwhelmed by it. it's going to make things really hard when it comes to moving things around. you have to move by plane, you have to move by boat, and when you have basically the major transportation areas affected as they were in this case, logis c logistics becomes a nightmare. so the challenge is if we haven't built in advance the infrastructure to withstand these events, it will fail badly. little things like the air traffic control, obviously not a fail when an airport is destroyed, you need to move that in very quickly. otherwise the aid can't move, but getting in at the airport doesn't do much good if you can't push it out quickly. and roads, debris, all these are challenges that are monumental. they would be for a first little country, not only a developing country. >> laurie, when you look at this, the next phase, i assume,
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the philippines is shot and you start to worry about water. do you start to worry about airborne diseases? what do you think about in. >> i think about the traumatic injuries and the people with infections because of the lack of appropriate treatment to a broken bone to scratches and lacerations and all sorts of terrible things. add to that, they are exposed to the elements, they don't have shelter in a normally very hot climate mixed with a lot of rainfall. and then they don't have clean water to drink. they don't have a steady supply of food and nutrients, especially for the children. all of this puts people at tremendous risk regardless. now, you add to it the possibility of a haiti-like scenario, where people come in to try to do good actually end up bringing microbes as their hitchhikers with them. in the case of haiti, it was
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cholera. >> that coholera was bought by peacekeepers and exploded, right? >> it is not just haiti, but it's become a permanent feature in haiti and has spread to the anyone can republic. via their humanitarian responders, they took it back to cuba. and from cuba it's gone to mexico where now there's 180 cases reported so far in mexico. and at least five mexican states. so you're seeing how a calamity can become a second calamity, a third calamity, a fourth calamity, if you don't get appropriate responses right in the beginning. now, the good news, and i think we have to admit there is some good news in this picture, is that we are on a learning curve as a global community to how we respond to the catastrophic events. we have a lot less back-biting and squabbles between the responders. we have better coordination going on. and i think each time, each episode, each horror seems to
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find the international community trying, gapling with ways to coordinate better. and less suspicion, for example, of military responders, such as steve is referring to, having the u.s. military go in. and hopefully all of this is going to mean we'll have less errors made by the responders. the problem now is just simply logistics. and you don't have functioning hospitals. you don't have electricity for your operating rooms. you don't have the ability to purify water supplies. all the basics have been devastated. >> thank you both very much. the point you made, steve flynn, that stuck with me, was if we knew about this looking at the data, looking at the maps, could we have mobilized a better response upfront or do we need to see the devastation, the terrible images, before we muster the political will to put out the resources? it's a terrible challenge because we're going to get better and better information from computers and from all kinds of technology, but we
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still need to move. and that's the only thing that moves us, are the horrible images, we end up waiting for the disaster. anyway, thank you very much. up next, what in the world? i have a great checklist for you, it's called how not to run an economy. it turns out to be an actual real country that seems to be following every disastrous step. i'll explain. vo: two years of grad school. 20 years with the company. thousands of presentations. and one hard earned partnership. it took a lot of work to get this far. so now i'm supposed to take a back seat when it comes to my investments? there's zero chance of that happening. avo: when you work with a schwab financial consultant, you'll get the guidance you need with the control you want. talk to us today.
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now for our what in the world segment? some startling images caught my eye this week. a shopping free-for-all at a major electronics chain, the equivalent of america's best buy. people making out with flat-screen tvs and appliances at bargain basement prices. it's not the holidays yet. this is what happened when the government of venezuela decided to play robin hood. the army took over the privately-owned chain and slashes prices. the incident government me thinking, we often talk about best practices for economies,
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perhaps they should have a list of things to avoid. a checklist of how to unruin your economy. this isn't just a there et call list, venezuela is taking each of the boxes in practice. so let's go to rule number one, nationalize business. that's effectively what we saw venezuela do this week with daka, the electronics change. the president nicholas madura says tvs are so expensive because the united states is trying to bring down the venezuela economy. it's not clear how his solution to take down the economy will fix anything. that brings me to rule number two, create hyper inflation. the truth is the overall price of goods has risen 54% in venezuela this year. so if you're household groceries was $100 a week in january, now they cost $154. the ripple effect is clear, prices go up, so eventually salaries have to go up. in the long run, anything you produce costs more.
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savings lose value. the middle class loses its standard of living. and the entire economy suffers. rule number three, induce a currency crisis. what does rampant inflation do? it devalues your currency. the official exchange rate is 6.3 bolivars for every green bag. in reality, that's seven to ten times the amount. for a country that imports 70% of its basic goods, this is a huge problem. you may remember recently that venezuela ran out of toilet paper. why? it is now running out of a different kind of paper, the money to pay for it. which brings me to rule number four, subsidize, subsidize, subsidize. if caracas is running out of money, the government doesn't care. they have been slashing subsidies for food and health care. remember, gas is essentially free. in fact, venezuela not only
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subsidizes gas for its own people, it also gives heavily discounted oil to cuba. all the while it is running out of money. i could go on and on, but i will just point out one more rule. number five, which is, become a dictatorship. president nicholas maduro won a vote this week to get decree powers, the ability to pass laws without consulting congress. he says he needs these powers to fix the economy and tackle corruption. after all, venezuela is ranked 181st of 189 countries for easy of doing business. it ranks 165th for transparency. it took years her hugo chavez to take venezuela down to this point. maduro believes by doubling down on those very policies, he's somehow going to get a different outcome. so on points one through five, venezuela is on a fast track to
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ruin. the world saw this coming under chavez. we hope for change, but in his dying days, chavez picked a mini-me to stay the course. the only reason venezuela has been able to survive given this record of ruined policies has been its oil wealth, this has given the government the revenues to cushion it from its effects of disasters. the sad reality that venezuela is wasting the world's largest oil reserves, it could be as wealthy as saudi arabia or qatar. and it could be healthier than mexico and brazil. instead it is looking more and more like north korea. up next, i have one of my favorite historians on the show, robert carro who takes us back to one of the most important moments in history, the says is a assassination of john f. kennedy.
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area. we had a confirmed report of a tornado on the ground in grundee county and will county along the county line there. there's a tornado warning that goes in effect until the top of the hour. starting at 2:00 eastern time, we'll have live coverage concerning the severe weather outbreak. a high risk for severe storms today. and the possibility of tornadoes appearing. also, looks like another tornado warning issued between pigeon grove and champagne, illinois. we also have a report that soldier field, the stadium has been evacuated because of the severe weather, they are under a severe thunderstorm warning. we'll keep you updated. fareed zakaria continues right now. the assassination of john f. kennedy on november 22nd, 1963, in dallas. off all the commissions, books,
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movies, conspiracy theories, studies, tv shows and investigations, is it possible to have a unique take on the day and its aftermath? i would argue that my next guest does. robert caro is a pulitzer-prize winner, biographer and historian. he has a new e-back on the topic called "dallas, november 22, 1963." we have linked to it on our website. welcome back to the show. >> great to be back. >> so when you looked at this and you looked at it for your great biography of lyndon johnson, what i'm struck by is the part of the book that says it was going to be a kennedy day, meaning -- >> the kennedys had this position, whenever there was a big event, the sun came out. so in the morning in ft. worth, it's raining, as the plane is flying through dallas, the sun comes out and one of his aides says, kennedy weather.
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in all his legislation, the civil rights was welling up in the south. it needed a legislator for release. it needed to pass a bill. his bill was going nowhere. it was bottled up and the southern democrats who controlled congress, it was going nowhere. he needed a tax. it was important, the tax-cut bill, because unemployment was rising to a totally unacceptable 5%. and tax rates had to come down. everyone agreed. congress wouldn't let that bill through. all the major legislation was slowed, so at that moment you say, his presidency had two sides. at the same time, his personal glamour and popularity and
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jacque's was made -- >> there was one thing where he triumphed in a complicated test of wills. >>yes. >> there was an executive committee. and sometimes you feel like almost everybody --
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>> he sold me a warship that passes the quarantine line, we are going to abort. this would have been an act very close to war. a russian ship does pull us in line. you know what he says? let's give them one more day. it's like he was saying, let's give peace one more day. he had just finished reading the book, the guns of war. you know what he says? >> that book is about -- >> it's about how the nation stumbled into world war i by one escalation after another. if i make a mistake about the cuban missile crisis of october, he knew the world was on the verge of nuclear war and he had to give him enough time to accept the plan for peace.
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no one writes the story, but the letter he sends to kennedy, saying we should not both be pulling tighter the knot of war, he signs it in a very unusual way, with respect. >> when we come back, i'm going to ask bob caro something i don't know he's been asked before, what he thinks of all the conspiracy theories, when we come back. then, a way to support heart health. ♪ and let's not forget immune support. ♪ but now i have new glucerna advance with three benefits in one. including carbsteady ultra to help minimize blood sugar spikes. it's the best from glucerna. [ male announcer ] new glucerna advance. from the brand doctors recommend most. advancing nutrition for diabetes. an important message for americans eligible
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we are back with robert caro, the great american historian, biographer of lyndon johnson, talking about john f. kennedy and the assassination. you know there are people who look at where johnson was dead in the water, a life magazine article was about to come out. you describe an investigative story that would further undermine him. people look at all that and say boy, this assassination, really not only made johnson president, but saved him from what might have been a complete collapse. and is it possible that had the assassination not happened,
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johnson would have been so humiliated he would have had to resign? >> johnson, to answer that part of your question, johnson himself felt that whether he had a second term or not, he was finished. that's the word he used. i'm finished. you know how we know that he really felt that way, he told several of his key aides who if he had further ambitions, he would have wanted to keep with them, he said, i'm done. one of them is asking him, can i go to work for somebody else? he says go with him. i'm finished. so you say that johnson really felt that his career might be over. on the other hand, nothing that i ever found -- i've been doing research on johnson for a lot of years. and i have to say that nothing that i found in writing or in the interviews led me to believe that whatever the story of the
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assassination really is, that lyndon johnson had anything to do with it. i never found anything that had led me to believe that. >> what do you think explains the conspiracy theories and the sense of why this assassination loomed so large in american imagination. >> it's almost like myth. a myth. young, handsome, the athlete dying young at the height of his glory. you say, beautiful, beautiful man, really. charming. handsome. idealistic. murder. blood. violence. horse row. you know, you say, here is this crack of this gunshot, and in an instant this man is lying across his wife's lap, basically in the backseat of a car, with his head
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blown apart. blood all over her. you say, for that reason alone, it has all the qualities of the mythic drama in the highest terms. then you also say, you know, there is the whole thing that happened that you may be too young to remember, the four days of television that all the networks, there's only one broadcast. so there's a pool broadcast. nielsen ratings show that for those four days, the television set in the average american home was on for 31.6 hours. that's eight hours a day that america is watching the same words said by the same people and you say, i wrote in my book, you know, the funeral procession. you think of triumphs of rome.
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the try yum triumphal professions of rome. a procession marching up to the capitol with the great dome of the capitol with columns in the sky marching toward at first you have the generals, joint chiefs of staff, the priests in their flowing robes and then you have the matched gray horses, the caisson. behind it, a single sailor holding a flag. because kennedy had been a naval hero, a naval lieutenant. that's the president's personal flag, the great black horse perhapsing there. you say, forget politics, forget tragedy. this is a drama such as and drumming it into history and drumming it into the american people is television everybody is watching it. the nation is united in a way united and watching this in a
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way, you say when did this ever happen? >> it feels to me it is also about where america was in 1963. it accounted for 35% of global gdp. it had rebuilt europe, it had rebuilt japan. it was starting things like the peace corp. what comes after is vietnam, the violence in almost every major american city. it is this great divide where people can look back and say, if kennedy had lived maybe america would have had a different trajectory. >> the great divide, i'll give you another word, water shed. the real meaning of water shed
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is the top of a mountain divide. america was a difference place than it was when linden johnson left the presidency. five years later, you could see the fires burning from the looters a few blocks away. you talk to johnson's white house aid and she said i remember white house jeeps outside and protesters everywhere. >> imagine a president living with his family his wife and two daughters in the white house and in parts of the white house you could hear, because pennsylvania avenue was not then closed off.
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the protesters could come right up to the fence. you could hear them chanting, hey hey lbj, how many kids did you kill today. what you said is right. the kennedy assassination, when you look back on the 20th century is the great day vid. >> pleasure as always. cnn has a great new documentary on the subject of this. and it airs for north american viewers tonight at 9:00 pm and 11:00 p.m. eastern. don't miss it. up next, which nations have opened their wallets for the philippines and which have not been so generous. it is an interesting list. when we come back.
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the 50th anniversary of john f kennedy's assassination brings me to my question of the week. who was the president to escape two assassinations in a month? stay tuned and we'll tell you the correct answer. this week's book of the week is "the man he became". the author looks at just one aspect of franklin roosevelt's life. his struggle with polio. he shows that it was fdr's battle to overcome this disability that most profoundly turned him into the man and president that he became. now for the last look, death,
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destruction, hunger, fear, shattering images continue to come out of the philippines following typhoon haiyan and before and after maps show the true impact of the devastation. dozens of countries pledged to help. the united states pledged 20 military in aid. britain pledged $16 million and the un pledged $95 million. the vatican $4 million. and what about china? the world's largest economy and super power, it's government originally pledged $100,000 in relie relief.
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relations are strained. thismesely aid promised did not go unnoticed. even tiny taiwan with 20 million people pledged $200,000 doubled kind in ki china's initial pledge. a week after the storm, china's main media agency has called for a deamericanized world urging washington to play a more constructive role in global affairs. what could be more constructive than humanitarian relief? the correct answer is cgerald ford.
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17 days later, moore fired her gun at the president, but a bystander grabbed her arm and she missed him. he is the only american president to be shot at by a woman. thank you for watching my program this week. i will see you next week. >> hello everyone. welcome to the cnn newsroom where we are watching severe storms threatening one third of the nation. that is more than 120 million people in 126 states. a dangerous tornado is ripping through illinois and major cities are in the strike zone. we have correspondents on the ground. let's start with you

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