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tv   Fareed Zakaria GPS  CNN  July 19, 2015 7:00am-8:01am PDT

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alexander hamilton will have to share it with some lucky female historical figures. others dream of a permanent replacement. andrew jackson nicknamed indian killer with sacagawea. on the rarely used $100,000 is president woodrow wilson also something of a nasty racist. let's put his contemporary suf rah gist alice paul on that bill. while we all love benjamin franklin it's pretty clear he already gets plenty of love. what if abolitionists and women's rights activists sojourner truth. thanks for spending your sunday morning with us.
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>> welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. >> every pathway to a nuclear weapon is cut off. >> on today's show, breakthrough with iran. the west and the islamic republican finally reach an agreement on its nuclear program. but the question remains, is iran really ready to come in from the cold? i have a perfect panel to discuss it. also the other big deal of the week week. greece gets saved by europe, or does it? why the deal is terrible for greece and europe.
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an all-powerful drug lord a brazen escape while under the watchful eyes of authorities. and now swirling questions about just who is responsible. the incredible story of el chapo. first here is my take. in selling the nuclear deal with iran the obama administration has been careful to point out that it's just an agreement on nuclear issues. the deal solves one particular problem, president obama explained in his news conference on wednesday, and supporters and critics alike are quick to suggest that this move is quite different from richard nixon's opening to china which transformed china and its relations with the world. iran after all, is a rogue regime that chants "death to america" and funds anti-american terror across the middle east. but let's recall what china looked like at the time henry kissinger went on his secret
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trip to beijing in july 1971. mao san jose dong was without question the most radical anti-american leader in the world, supporting violent gur guerilla groups. beijing was the principle supporter of the north vietnamese trending them troops supplies and guns to fight and kill american soldiers every day. initially the opening to china changed none of this. during the talks the chinese refused to end their support for the north vietnamese regime. in fact while nixon and kissinger were talking to the chinese, beijing's shipment of arms to the north vietnam were increasing as documented in the book by the historic chang jie. just as we're told today that there was a mythical better deal to be had with iran conservatives excoriated the
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nixon administration for selling out taiwan claim that rather than hanging over taiwan's spot in the u.n. to beijing, washington could have done more to arrange a dual seat arrangement. but over time china did slow down its support for revolutionary movements in countries like indonesia and malaysia and thailand and burma. relations with vietnam soured for many reasons, but certainly the opening to america was one of them. these shifts finally led to a wholesale rethinking of china's foreign policy. but only seven years after kissinger's meetings under a new chinese leader dung xiaoping who first consolidated power and broke with the revolutionary world view. china's move toward the west was fueled by the split with the soviet union and perhaps the people's republic's total isolation. iran faces no such dire security threat. and as an oil producing country
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that gets tens of billions in revenues even under sanctions, it's never truly been isolated or destitute. iran clearly resents being treated as a pariah demonstrated in many different ways. a new set of leaders wants to restore iran to a more normal status. will that mean tehran's foreign policies will moderate. histories suggest as countries get more integrated into the world and the global economy they have fewer incentives to be spoilers and more to maintain sablt. sablt stability. on america's most pressing challenges in the middle east right now, the threat from isis stability of eye rook, stability of afghanistan, iran and the
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united states have overlapping interests, the sectarian war in the middle east one fueled by sunnis as well as shias will continue. washington and others can talk to both sides to try to broker reduction in tensions. no significant change is going to happen. it didn't in china, it hasn't in cuba or burma, but over the next ten years, if there is greater contact, communication, commerce and capitalism between iran and the rest of the world, surely this will gradually empower those iranians who see their country's destiny as being part of the modern world not in opposition to it. for more go to cnn/fareed and read my column. let's get started.
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you heard my take on the deal. now let's bring in other important opinions to answer crucial questions like is iran ready to come in from the korld. robin wright has a terrific piece on iran and the deal in next week's "new yorker," a long time journalist now a distinguished scholar at the wilson center. valle skas ser at johns hopkins. bret stevens is the pulitzer prize winning foreign affairs columnist for the "wall street journal." robin, in your long terrific "new yorker" essay, you talk about the fact -- you quote somebody saying iran is in a mid life crisis. so in that mid life crisis what does this deal do? it does seem like the people celebrating the deal are all the sort of young urban people who at least in my teeth tinges with them when i was in iran they seem very pro american
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desperate for a connection with the world. >> one of the reasons iranians came to the negotiating table was because of their own political environment, not just the international sanctions or the horrific missmanagement by the previous president ahmadinejad. there is a recognition that the majority of people and the majority of voters in iran were born after the revolution very much want to be part of the 21st century, they're ak mated despite the sensor zip and depression. they want to integrate. after 36 years, they're into that phase of the revolution where they're struggling to become a normal state again. they're not there yet. they have a long way to go to get there. but we have to see what's happened beyond just the transaction over a single nuclear issue, that it's really about transformation of a revolution at a particularly sensitive moment in its own history. >> but don't forget iran had a
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mid life crisis in 2009 and it put its mid life crisis in jail and the leaders are still under house arrest. it's good the iranian people are eager for a deal but we're not dealing with an iraneyeiranian people we're dealing with an iranian regime that believes it's wing regionally and internationally on many fronts. it's getting rid of the shackles of sanctions through the nuclear negotiations. it's advancing its aims throughout the region. the man who will appoint the next supreme leader was recently appointed, an ayatollah named yazdi, known as an ultra hard liner. let's not confuse the american people and what they want with a regime we just struck this bargain with. >> if there were a shift in iran a moderation or softening, it's a big if what do you think that would translate into in terms of policies in the middle
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east? it does strike me that iran and the united states do have overlapping interests in afghanistan, for example, where we both don't like the taliban, in iraq syria, where we both don't like isis. >> if you look at what is iran's major headache in the region is isis. it's the sort of sunni surge that they're seeing in syria and iraq. that's what's going to pre occupy them. i don't think iran is right now standing ten feet tall and ready to take over the region. they're very much in a defensive mode. that may be one reason they wanted this deal. now they've been able to negotiate with the united states on the most difficult issue, i think it's much easier for them to meet with the united states torques have a casual conversation and a serious conversation about varieties of issues. i think the key one is iraq. it's very clear that the only country in the middle east that is willing to put boots on the ground and actually fight in
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iraq is iran. the question is where do the two sides pick up the tread? can they have yet another small win on top of this one and sustain the momentum. >> the interesting thing is they've already begun to talk about how they can deal with united states on other issues. it's very striking the language over the last week even in the run-up to the deal and the fact the supreme leader right after the interim framework was announced in april came out in a very striking speech and said if we are successful in negotiations on a nuclear deal it is possible to talk with the united states on other issues. for the supreme leader once everyone believed had anti americanism in his dna, this was a very striking moment. it's also tremendously important for proliferation. the last four countries to join the nuclear club pakistan india, israel and north korea
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diplomacy failed to prevent them from joining the nuclear club. >> this deal in many respects resembles the young framework at a time when a lot of people thought a sunshine policy with north korea could achieve diplomatic results when pressure failed. we know the north korean story. i think it's important not to get carried away with this notion that we have all these interests that we share with the supreme leader. the "wall street journal" recently reported that iran continues to support elements within the taliban. iran is the principle sponsor of bashar assad in syria, not a nice guy. hezbollah, hamas and israel. iran is opposed to our key ally ms. the region. we should be very careful, by the way, in risking those alliances and that trust for the sake of hoping at some point in the future that iran will become
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in ten years 15 years' time what china became during the transition from mao say tongue to dow xiaoping. >> we shouldn't throw away our alliances. we also have to think of this, that we have interests in this region. our interesting, the european interests and the russian interests is extremist and isis. none of our allies are engaged in the fight against isis. that's a fact. that if isis continues to be a threat to europe, to russia to the united states by default, the only government in the region that is actually engaged in fighting isis is iran. this is a classic case of real politics rather than being naive. >> we shouldn't let the euphoria of the moment and the deal shape our thinking about what iran really wants. it is still the most destabilizing force from an american perspective in the
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region. it's funding all the groups that are opposed to israel. its hand is -- >> it's also funding all the groups opposed to isis. i think vali's point is right now the so-called shia militias that iran is funding in iraq and syria are the principle force on the ground against isis. >> absolutely. >> if we stop funding them, isis is going to take more territory. >> another one of the reasons they went to the negotiating table is they understood the middle east map is crumbling. ironically two of the countries most interested in keeping the map as it is today are iran and the unitedstates. >> we have to take a break. when we come back we'll talk about what iran might do with its windfall when we come back. i don't want to live with the uncertainties of hep c. or wonder... ...whether i should seek treatment. i am ready. because today there's harvoni. a revolutionary treatment for the most common type of chronic hepatitis c.
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we are back with robin wright vali nsasr and bret stevens. >> all of the interventions they've had across the region enormous help to hezbollah against israel was funded at some of the hardest times of economic hardship. that money has always been available. yes, they want to be players in the region. it is the largest population larger than all the gulf countries combined. it feels actually strategically full verbal because it feels the sunnis who dominate the region dominate the islamic world are surrounding them whether the taliban, isis an array of forces. needless to say, the saudis have not been shy in opposing them either. this is trying to get back to what they think is their
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rightful place in the region. we could argue hedge mon it's a historic place in the region. it is one of the most stable states in the region to me. >> if you look at the middle east today, the most successful countries in the middle east are all non-arab. it's iran turkey and israel that essentially are dominating the new middle east. >> we can argue both sides of the argument. we think iran came to the table because of the pressure of sanctions, which means the very first place they have to put the money is to relieve political pressure. if the assumption is political pressure that brought them to the table, that's where the money is going to go. even if you look at the middle east iran even in the new budget has 5% allotted to defense. it spends less in absolute terms per capita than all the
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neighbors who are much more technologically advanced weaponry. they're watching what the saudis are doing in yemen. to them this makes it about an arm's race. it's not about only nuclear arms race but a conventional arms race. the saudis are sending a powerful signal they're using sophisticated weaponry and we'll give more of it as compensation. >> this is why one of the consequences of this deal i suspect, is going to turbo charge the very kind of sunni-shia competition that we would actually prefer to tamp down because the saudis whatever you think is the rational course the saudis are not going to take this lying down. you heard prince turkey unequivocally says whatever the deal gives to the iranians we want to get the same. the saudi response to the hugt thinks was not just concern about what was happening on their southwestern flank, but also a reflection of their broader concern that iran was, as you spelled out becoming the
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dominate player in its neighborhood. so as a result you're going to see more radicalism and more regional confrontation as a consequence of this deal, not to say proliferation, than if you had simply extracted tougher terms or walked away from the agreement. >> but at the same time while this is the case, if they're going to spend anywhere the money for military it's going to be to defy the sunni radicals. even hezbollah is putting money in to capture mosul, to build a wall so isis can't cross into bagdad but also to save the outside regime and fight isis on the borders of lebanon. this is the strategic decision they made which is to preserve their equities in syria and in iraq. >> and establish a shy iet presence. >> you can't have it both ways. you either want isis defeated or you don't.
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>> i want them defeated by the iranians and pour the benfor the benefit of the iranians. >> you get the last word. >> this is something we should hope something comes out of it. a lot of challenges ahead. interesting to see the politics play out both in congress and in iran's parliament. >> pleasure to have you all on. next on "gps," how in the world did mexico lose its most important inmate? we will delve into this incredible story when we come back.
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when osama bin laden was killed by s.e.a.l. team 6 in pakistan in 2011 a man named joaquin guzman or el chapo became the world's number one fugitive head of the sinaloa drug cartel caught and put in a mexican prison in 1993 but then escaped in a laundry cart in 2001. when el chapo was caught again in the resort town of moz at land, attorney general called the capture a landmark achievement, a victory for the citizens of both mexico and the
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united states. guzman had been indicted in jurisdictions all around the u.s. and after the arrest, u.s. officials suggested he be expedited north of the border where he could be locked up more securely but that never happened and, of course guzman escaped again, last weekend from a mexican jail cell even though the cell was under surveillance. he used a blind spot in the camera's field of view to conceal his drop here into an elaborately constructed tunnel complete with a motorcycle track. my next patrick radenkeef wrote a great long read about guzman in "the new yorker" called "the hunt for el chapo." welcome. >> thanks for having me. >> the prison he was in was in central mexico. they established a no-fly zone over the prison so that there was no chance he could be -- get out through helicopters.
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it was an area where they jammed all cell phones but they didn't think about a tunnel? >> it's extraordinary. one of the aspects of this story that leaves you shaking your head. this was mexico's most secure facility. he was really the most famous inmate inside a guy who had escaped before who the u.s. authorities had information was planning on perhaps escaping again. they had informed their mexican counterparts he might try to escape. so it's quite extraordinary to think that he escaped, not only by climbing over a wall but by constructing a mile-long tunnel underground, a feet that would have involved engineers, surveyors, a great deal of labor. >> the tunnel actually comes up in his cell in the bathroom right at the drain, 20-inch by
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20-inch drain. all this leads one to feel this is not just a feat of engineering, this is fundamentally about bribery and corruption is it not? >> absolutely. i think there's no question. the amount of resources that would have had to go into building this tunnel and the suggestion that we now have -- the construction on the tunnel began actually early last year. so just shortly after he was first locked up in this prison in the first instance. they've been working on this thing for quite some time. there's been a suggestion it's climate controlled he actually had a bird -- they found a dead bird in his cell. he used it like a canary in a coal mine to find out if he could breathe the air down there and survive. the suggestion here i think is you'll find complicity both people outside the prison but also inside and i would think in the mexican government. you have to think about the last time el chapo escaped from prison in 2001. after that escape it's merged
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he had much of the prison on his payroll when he was an inmate. charges were brought against 71 different people who worked at the prison associated with his escape including the warden of the prison. >> do you think the corruption here extends beyond the prison? higher levels within the mexican government? >> i think there's no question that that's the case. i think it's an open question whether or not we'll ever find that to be proven or charged in a criminal context in a satisfying way. so already the warden of the prison now has been fired. but i think there's real questions about whether or not you'll see scapegoats at a low level who will be dismissed, but not a real thorough investigation of much higher-level complicity in the administration of president enrique peto. >> why is it so difficult to handle this type of corruption particularly associated with drugs. caldron, the previous president
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made a big deal of the fact that he was taking the war to the drug cartels. pin netto has described his own approach. fundamentally, what would it take for things to change? >> well i think it would take a great deal, and you'd have to see a slow unwinding of a culture which has really set in over decades. what concerns me about the way we talk thabt as a foreign policy issue in the united states is we talk about it as though this corruption is something that's indigenous to mexico. we really need to remember that the cross border drug trade is a market. we are the demand for this. i've talked to people who worked in the sinaloa cartel. they'll tell you only half the job is figuring out how to get drugs into the united states. the other half is figuring out how to take all the bail euns of dollars they make coming from americans who are paying for those drugs and getting them back out of the one tri and into
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mexico, laundering them, getting them into the financial system. i think there's something endemic here which ultimately ties back to our prohibition on drugs. i don't think it's an accident the biggest exporter of drugs in the world and the biggest importer just happened to be neighbors. >> do you think that because the united states had warned the mexican government and asked to expedite them is this going to sour u.s.-mexican relations and cooperation? >> i think this is a going to be a huge problem for security cooperation between the two countries. you've got to remember from the moment this guy was captured it had been a great try umph for pennant toe. nobody thought this would happen. they managed to get the guy last february. but then almost immediately a quiet diplomatic fight began over whether or not he would be expedited. you had the department of justice in the u.s. saying look he got away last time we don't trust you to hold him. why don't you bring him here? mexico saying for reasons in some perspective make a lot of
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sense. most of his crimes were committed here we captured him here we're not going to give him up to the gringos, we want to try him here. what we see in retrospect is a lot of these mexican officials were overconfident about their ability to hold on to somebody who has the money and genius when it comes to this kind of escape toreallystymy hen. >> patrick radden keefe, terrific reporting, thank you so much. thank you. greece and the eu finally came to an agreement on a deal, so everyone is happy, right? wrong. find out why when we come back. only thing you think about. that's where at&t can help. at at&t we monitor our network traffic so we can see things others can't. mitigating risks across your business. leaving you free to focus on what
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now the other big deal reached this week t agreement between greece and the european creditors. athens had rioting in the streets against the deal. former finance minister said
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what the greeks agreed to was fiscal waterboarding. my next guest, paul krugman, called the deal a ritual humiliation. krugman is a nobel prize winning economist and a columnist for "the new york times." thanks for being on. >> thanks for having me. >> lots of people believe the creek crisisy greek crisis is over. you don't think so. >> no. really nothing has changed in the strategy which is still cut to cut, austerity way back to solvency which was never working, has never worked in this kind of situation and will not work. all that's happened is we've gotten a pause for the moment maybe, not even sure of that. it's amazing. we're by no means out of the woods. >> ken rogue said on last week's
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show you deserved responsibility in a sense defying the european creditors. the result of that was that he got worse terms. do you think that's fair? >> well it's certainly true that -- i had assumed. it didn't even occur to me that they would be prepared to make a stand without having donny contingency planning. >> this is greece? >> yes. greece had an exit plan from the euro. >> at least something they could hold up this is what we will do if we can't get anymore cash. amazingly they thought they could simply demand better terms without having any backup plan. so certainly this is a shock. but in some sense, it's hopeless in any case. it's not as if the terms that they were being offered before were feasible. the new terms are even worse
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but the terms they were being offered before were still not going to work. i may have overestimated the competence of the greek government but in some sense it's a hopeless situation regardless. >> what does that mean in terms of where is this going to end? is greece going to have to exit the euro? >> my guess is -- nothing can ever be certain. my guess is yes. either in the end they will get this enormous debt relief that they're not getting, or they will have to exit. my money in some currency or other, is on exit one way or another. >> and will that cause a lehman-like crisis. the germans seems convinced that at this point all the debt is on the balance sheet of the central banks, not private banks so it won't have that cascade that lehman had. >> i think that's right.
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we do not see that kind of crisis. even a lehman event would not cause a lehman event now. there has been -- a lot of buffers have been put up we know the public sector will stand behind. that doesn't mean a greek exit is trivial. a greek exit will have huge implications for the future of the european project. if greece exits and then starts to recover, which it probably would, that in turn would be encouragement for other political movements to challenge the euro. this is not trivial. no we're not talking about 2008 all over again. >> steve rattner and several others the general view in the business community feel look the truth of the matter is the fundamental problem is greece is massively uncompetitive. it's a highly overregulated economy. if you look at its retirement age, you look at areas like
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pharmacy, too many regulations, very business unfriendly and a swiss-cheese-like model of taxes. that's what really the germans are asking for more than austerity. >> the one about tax collection, while it's true there are a lot of holes, greece mon the less does manage to collect a lot of taxes. people look at it and say, well they must be -- they can't be collecting any money. they're affecting a higher share of gdp and taxes than the united states is. it's not as if they don't manage to raise revenue. maybe they should do it better. they should. as for the other stuff, greece is an overregulated, problematic economy, not as much as it was. it's done much more reform. >> structural reform not just cutting budgets? >> a lot of structural reform. look at the world bank survey of doing business greece is not a great place, but not as bad a place as it was. the main point is all of these things were true of greece ten
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years ago 15 years ago. they weren't in the midst of a depression-level slump back then. these are part of the background noise, if you like. it is in fact the euro -- the trap the euro turned into and the austerity policies in attempt to keep greece in the euro that are responsible for the disaster taking place now. it's like looking at -- every country has problems greece maybe more than some less than others. it's the euro responsible for this disaster. >> paul krugman, pleasure to have you on. >> thanks. up next waves and waves have been washing up on europe's shores. millions have fled from syria alone. why are the world's refugees streaming across borders in numbers not seen since world war ii i have two top experts, david mill brand and chris christophe with me when we come back.
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last year the number of people who had been forced to leave their homes across the world reached 60 million. that's the population the size of italy, the world's 23rd largest nation. that's 42,500 new people on average every day in 2014 forced out because of war persecution or violence according to the u.n. high commission for refugees. about 20 million are refugees who had to leave their own nations and flee to another and almost 40 million of them have had to move within their own nation. the problem today is worse than at any time since world war ii. to talk about this global crisis i have two informed guests david mill band is the former foreign secretary of the united kingdom, now the president and ceo of the international rescue committee, just back from knee jay. nicholas kristoff is the two-time pulitzer prize winning columnist from "the new york
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times" just back from sedan. welcome. >> thank you. >> nick why is this happening? you see there are no major wars taking place among states. it feels like a war of relative stability suddenly compared to the cold war. yet you have this staggerering statistics. >> a huge decline between states and among states. what we're seeing is an explosion of conflicts within states. it's the internal conflicts within states often one group monetizing a particular resource in that country that are driving these internally displaced people and refugees. i think in parts that's a reflection of the decline of the cold war, you no longer have patrons who are determined to keep this state functioning because it's a pawn in a larger game. now, if the pawn collapses into a failed state, nobody much cares. >> have you been surprised, david, i certainly have, how fragile it turns out that political order is in so many of
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these places, that it's not so much the kind of government but just the degree of government that turns out to be very very difficult to maintain libya after gadhafi, iraq after sudan. all these places turn out to be very fragile and little underneath them. >> not surprising when you see a company like knee square has an average income of $1.00 a day. five coups in the course of the 1990s. massive climate change and now it's got nigeria exploding on one border and mali on the other border. this dual problem of weak states and a weak international system is coming together to create this really world on fire in about 30 countries, 30 to 35 fragile states that cannot contain ethnic and political and religious difference within peaceful boundaries and don't have the anchor of an international order to hold the
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ring. i think globalization, far from homogenizing global culture, is going with an assertion of local ethnic religious identity. that's what we're seeing in these fragile states. the assertion of this identity is overwhelming the sources trying to hold the ring for politics. in a situation where you've got regional players sponsoring quite a lot of these forces in a lot of countries we're talking about, syria, the congo, et cetera regional forces regional powers that are playing an important proxy role. it's not just -- >> let me spell out what you're saying. you're saying in a place like syria, a problem with assad supported by the iranians but the sunnis supported by saudi arabia. >> how do you make politics work in a way that ends these conflicts? everybody wants to do that and everyone calls for conferences in geneva where the two or the three or the five parties will
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come together. you can draw up the out looits lines of some power-sharing deal. it never takes. >> i think the politics is much harder than the rest of that. i think especially there's kind of a weariness with the world, an kmaumgs,exhaustion, a fatigue. the other part of the problem is what we're trying to maximize is not often humanitarian values but u.s. food aid programs aren't based on saving people from starvation. it's a u.s. agriculture support program and u.s. shipping program. we buy food in the u.s. expensive, ship it over and it does less good than if we bought food on location. we wouldn't have support otherwise. >> if you had a magic wand in your old job foreign minister of britain what is the one thing you could do to make the politics of this work better and in some way deal with the politics. >> let me offer this. it is extraordinary that the
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syria conflict hasn't just cost 260,000 lives, hasn't driven 4 million people into the neighboring states. there is no political process of real heft and power to bring a diplomatic solution. we have a very committed u.n. envoy working on his own. where is the international effort from not just the u.s. and the u.k. but russia as well regional powers, to recognize the common enemies that exist. the problem in seer wra is a worse problem than a year ago. in a year's time it will be worse again because the humanitarian catastrophe is feeding the political instability. that's the cycle we're stuck in. >> i think we in the media have some responsibility for this. if you look at past humanitarian crises, like the balkans, that was in part because television brought horrifying images into everybody's living room. that's much likely to happen in 2015 when news media organizations are struggling for a new business model that doesn't involve sending cameras
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just another day at norfolk southern.
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the iran deal elicited strong reactions from around the world and brings me to my question of the week. which of the following politicians creating a far si twitter account to be able to communicate directly with the iranian people this week? barack obama, john kerry, vladimir putin or benjamin netanyahu. stay tuned and we'll tell you the correct answer. this week's book of the week is a great guide if you want to understand iran called conveniently enough "understanding iran," everything you to know by william polk a great short read. the correct answer to the gps challenge question is d. believe it or not benjamin netanyahu tweeted about the deal in hebrew and english and from his new farsi account. the morning after the deal was struck he tweeted the hundreds of billions of dollars that will
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be deposited at iran's treasury will be spnt on terrorism and aggression, not on hospitals and schools. for the moment this account has a relatively small number of followers. only time will tell if incendiary tweets will change that. thanks for being part of my pram this week. i'm see you next week. good morning. i'm brian tellstelter. we have former whus press secretary jay carney washington press editor and cnn's john king. we begin with donald trump in a very unusual position on the defensive, calling into various tv shows tweeting a storm, scrambling to defend himself among blanket criticism of john mccain. he described john mccain saying quote, he's not a war hero. >> we had thousands and thousands of people, he called them crazies. he insulted them. he should apologize to th