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tv   Erin Burnett Out Front  CNN  August 12, 2015 4:00pm-5:01pm PDT

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situation room." thanks for watching. i'm brianna keilar in "the situation room." erin burnett "outfront" starts right now. "outfront" tonight, breaking news. donald trump dominating. new cnn poll numbers just released has trump on top of the republican pack, this time in the key state of iowa. but there is one major sign of weakness for the frontrunner. more breaking news. an explosion, the final death toll still unknown. more than 250 people injured. wait until you see this amazing video. allegations of brutal interrogation tactics used on prisoners after two killers escaped from a new york maximum security prison. what happened there? let's go "outfront." good evening. i'm kate baldwin.
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breaking news, trump on top. donald trump with a commanding lead over his republican rivals in iowa. that's according to a new c cnn poll just released. an eight point lead. ben carson is seeing a big bump now in second place with 14%. former gop frontrunner in iowa, scott walker, he is down to third. moments after the polls released, donald trump claimed right here on cnn he was just that. >> i'm honored. i'm honored by your call and 22%, that's a big number. that's a really big number. it's a great honor. >> as for the democrats, hillary clinton is standing strong in iowa with a 19 point lead over sanders. jeff zeleny is "outfront" with us tonight. first to the republicans. trump is dominating almost across the board. >> reporter: he is without a doubt. we heard he is honored by the
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results. there's no questioning them, kate. he is in full command of this republican field in iowa, at least for now. his support extends across the board. that's why this is so interesting. with strong perceptions he would do the best job on several top issues. he is on top of the poll on illegal immigration and terrorism. this isn't necessarily surprising. his lead is so big that in the small specific issue areas, he is expected to hold more of a lead overall. in this crowded field, it's significant. he is the most electable in the field in a general election. i found that to be one of the more surprising things when you talk to republican activists and establishment leaders, most say he couldn't win a general election. that's not what iowa republicans are saying. it's important to point out this point. two-thirds of iowa republicans said they are still trying to make up their minds and they could easily change their mind in the coming months. >> still keep having to remind ourselves, it's still early. though we have been in it for
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quite some time at this point. there does seem to be one big sign of weakness for trump in this poll. late it out for us. >> reporter: it is. that's the gender gap. perhaps not surprisingly here, he is the choice of 27% of men but only 15% of women. the gender gap is very critical in a general election. democrats win again and again because of that. it's not quite as important in a republican primary. but it's still one potential sign of weakness. kate, one other thing that caught my eye as i was reading the poll this afternoon. on the area of which candidate represents the values of republicans, there's no clear leader on this. trump is right in the center of the rest of this very crowded field. values, of course, are key to all republican voters, certainly those evangelicals in iowa. >> absolutely, jeff. great to see you. thank you so much. "outfront" tonight, former deputy campaign manager for mitt romney, katie packer-gauge. also david gergen.
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and andy dean, a trump supporter who has worked for trump for seven years. great to see all of you. andy, trump no doubt loves these polls oh, so very much. they also show a very big gender gap, as jeff zeleny was pointing out. a sign of weakness. you need women to win. how big of a liability is this? >> well, first, if we take a step back and look at the numbers, it's excellent new for donald trump. ben carson in second place. the american public do not want a career politician. you are talking about almost half the electoral. if you look at voters who made up their minds, they go strongly for trump and carson. that's a good sign. as far as the women vote, that's to be expected. carson is at 20%. that's because he has been taking a pounding in the media.
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as that works itself out, i think you will see trulmp to th top. >> it's the media's fault. it is the truth right now, he is dominating in iowa. he is the top pick for the candidate with the best chance to win in the general. nothing seems to leave a mark on this guy. what is it going to take for the other republicans to knock him off the top? >> there's a difference between being the easiest candidate to beat -- or the strongest candidate in the general and being perceived by iowa caucus goers as the strongest candidate in the general. the reality is with all due respect to cnn news, this isn't really news. this is where he was a week ago. roughly 20% to 25% of republican primary voters, we have seen that nationally. i have maintained, i don't think that's going to change. i think it's a ceiling. he enjoys 100% -- nearly 100% awareness. all of the other candidates are just getting known. the reality is, if you look at the numbers, 78% of republican caucus goers in iowa are saying,
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no thanks. they have all the information about donald trump. they're saying they are not that interested. i think the gender gap is an issue. the reason it's not typically an issue in republican primaries is because there isn't this much disparity. it's unusual to see a ten point difference between two republican candidates or a handful of candidates. i think that this is really an issue for donald trump. he maybe has taken a beating to some degree but he had 24-hour news coverage on him. cnn has been the trump network for the last several weeks. he is enjoying more limelight. >> i think there are a few people that would dispute this is the trump network. >> starting with donald trump. >> it's a lot of coverage on him. >> he is the frontrunner. >> i will say one thing. katie packard just said trump has between 20% to 25% of the vote. it's not breaking news. it is breaking news.
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it shows the american people feel like he won the debate. >> it was news on nbc on sunday. it's not new. it has been consistent. >> show some manners for the love of god. i know in the romney camp they don't show manners. he is running against 15 other people. if you ask people who their second choice is, it's donald trump. that shows a lot. >> ding, ding. pause in the fighting for one second. david, get in on this. trump is leading on these key issues. he is not only topping in the big number. on the economy, on immigration, even on terrorism. this all -- he is leading on this without laying out specifics on these issues. how do you explain it? >> i think we're in times of turbulence and for many people it's a time of uncertainty. they're looking for a strong leader. donald trump exudes strength, masculine strength, sometimes to his detriment we have seen here with his behavior. nonetheless, i think people look
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for a strong leader. they are more willing to follow them. if we were in a time of contentment, you wouldn't see him leading. the bigger news to me out of this poll tonight is that it may be early but angry voters are on the march. the candidates who are doing the best are the anti establishment candidates. three in iowa, starting with donald trump but ben carson, a rise and car lly fiorina. sanders leads maybe, small gap over hillary clinton. walker, the governor, the establishment, went down in iowa. he was expected to win this thing in iowa. now he looks like he is struggling. jeb bush at 5% in iowa? that's a tough go. >> it's a tough go. on these issues, andy, i have to ask you. tr trump says the specifics are coming. he is afraid to go specific?
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don't voters deserve the details? >> kate, i just reject the premise of the question, because if you look at donald trump last night, he spoke for half an hour about the issues. during the debate, he wanted to talk about the issues. it was megyn kelly who brought up side issues. >> on the immigration issue, he talks about the wall. when you ask how are you going to get them to pay, he says, trust me. that's a -- >> last night on fox news he said, look, in trade negotiations, if i have to, will slap a tariff on mexico. he has been very tough on mex o mexico. look what china did a couple days ago. they devalued their currency which hurts our manufacturers and allows china to dump in cheap goods. he is very specific. >> do we know what he would do with the iranian agreement? do we know what he would do in syria? what's his policy in syria? >> absolutely. >> the israelis and the palestinians -- >> if i may -- >> i have heard more detail from
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andy tonight than from trump. >> he is clear about isis. bomb the oil fields. as for iran, rip up the agreement. he has been -- >> what does he want to do? what does he want instead? the best -- >> i can tell you. look, how was the iraqi program destroyed? syria, 2007, how was that destroyed? thank god the israelis destroyed it. we need to let the israelis take care of business. it's as simple as that. >> what i hear you, his position on iran is tear up the agreement and get the israelis to bomb? is that what you are saying? >> no. i am not donald trump. donald trump's position is he should tear up the problem. >> we hear tear up the agreement, but we don't hear specifics. here is a problem for the other republicans. katie, voters don't seem to care at this point. trump has this amazing way of turning a negative, not going
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specific, into a positive for him. here is another example. i have to get your take on this. he points out at every turn how rich he is, at every possible opportunity. for all of you out there, if you have been living under a rock, just listen. >> here is good news. i'm very rich. i don't have anybody giving me money. i'm the most successful person to run. i'm much richer than people thought. i'm not doing that to brag. i don't have to brag. believe it or not. >> he said he has a store that is worth more than mitt romney. he does have billions more. why then is mitt romney's -- was mitt romney's wealth a liability? trump has been able to make it his biggest asset. isn't there something to learn there? >> i done think it was his wealth. i think it was the way the democrats portrayed him and the way he accumulated his wealth. the democrats would do the same thing to donald trump if he came under that kind of scrutiny as the nominee.
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which i again will reiterate, i do not think is going to happen. i don't tli ithink it's the wea that's a liability. i think what is a liability is this breaux haveovado that is a to women. in a general election, it's a bigger problem. people want to point to it as this great success. i would remind people, mitt romney did win the nomination. so far, donald trump has been able to get 22% of the vote. if he wins the nomination, then he can give advice on whether or not bragging on your wealth is a great political strategy. >> we have more time to go. iowa polls just out. david, katie, andy, thank you so much. great to see you all. "outfront" next, more of our breaking news. a new poll has hillary clinton open top but another has her falling behind bernie sanders in new hampshire. jeb bush, a distance sixth in iowa. what's happening to the once presumptive frontrunners.
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inmates say they were beaten after the daring new york prison break. is it true? donald trump, he says he is leaving open the door to a third party run. could he win that way or would he guarantee victory for the democrats? imagine - she won't have to remember passwords.
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the one on your right is made out of high strength steel and the other is made of aluminum. now i'm gonna release a 700 pound grizzly bear. so pick a cage and get in it. well i'm glad i picked this cage. why did you pick the steel cage? that's a big animal right there. you want to see something else made with high strength steel? that's the chevy silverado. made with high strength steel for high strength dependability. that's beautiful. look at the size of his head.
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wi noticed benny right away. , i just had to adopt him. he's older so he needs my help all day. when my back pain flared up we both felt it i took tylenol at first but i had to take 6 pills to get through the day. then my friend said "try aleve". just two pills, all day. and now, i'm back for my best bud! aleve. all day strong and try aleve pm, now with an easy open cap. breaking news, donald trump slamming hillary clinton, distancing himself from the democratic frontrunner, despite donating money to her past campaigns. listen. >> poll numbers indicate that maybe it's troubling for her. i think that i would be her worst nightmare in a sense. i think nobody has been tougher on hillary. >> it isn't trump who is being tough on clinton in the polls. a new poll in new hampshire
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shows populous senator bernie s sanders gaining steam. that's not the only challenge facing the clinton campaign today. jeff zeleny is "outfront." >> reporter: a soaring summer for bernie sanders. he is front page news today, vaulting over hillary clinton in new hampshire. his cry is catching on. >> we have a message to the billionaire class. and that message is, you can't have it all. >> reporter: his candidacy is taking off. for the first time, a new franklin pierce university poll shows him with an edge. in iowa clinton holds a strong lead. our poll shows her over sanders by 19 points. she's agreed to surrender her
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server to the justice department. it has given sanders an opening to be a potential spoiler of the 2016 campaign. he is not alone. >> president of the united states. donald j. trump. >> reporter: republicans have one of their own, donald trump is leading their track. the spoilers are upending the race, sending establishment stars to the back burner, at least for now. >> jeb and hillary on the same day, they said donald trump has too strong a tone. the world is cracking up and they're worried about my tone. >> reporter: instead of taking on trump, bush turned his attacks to clinton last night in the speech on iraq at the reagan library in california. >> where was secretary of state clinton in all of this? like the president himself, she had opposed the search, then joined in claiming credit for its success. >> reporter: instead of challenging sanders, clinton is fixated on bush and the gop field. >> i have to draw a contrast
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with the candidates on the other side of the aisle. >> reporter: while trump is used to the spotlight, it's a new phenomenon for sanders. the 73-year-old vermont senator who calls himself a democratic socialist. his rallies drawing more than 100,000 people in recent weeks are the biggest of any 2016 candidate. >> are they underestimating bernie sanders? >> people have underestimated me. i'm in this race. >> reporter: bernie is smiling a lot these days. he is drawing some of the biggest crowds we have seen in years. the challenge for sanders, trump and other surging candidates is to turn all this enthusiasm into a strong campaign organization to actually get their supporters out next winter when the voters will finally have their say. kate? >> absolutely. jeff, thank you so much. "outfront" tonight, ana navarro and jeb bush supporter and brad woodhouse, the president of correct the record.
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great to see you. brad, jeff laid it out well. clinton is ahead in iowa, but she can not seem to tamp down sanders' appeal. he pulled ahead in new hampshire. should the clinton campaign be raising at lae ining the alarm? >> every campaign should run like they are ten points behind. we have said they expect this to be a competitive primary. i don't think anyone should be surprised that the senator from next door in new hampshire -- next door in vermont is running well in new hampshire. i do think you have to look at more than one pole, the aggregate of the polls in new hampshire have hillary clinton ahead. a 19-point lead in iowa is pretty significant. not to mention, she has deep support among democratic constituencies across the country, far more support than any of her rivals. >> they are not concerned one bit about -- >> i didn't say that. >> i'm kidding. jeb bush is facing trouble in the polls as well.
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he has dropped from the top five in our new poll. is that all because of the debate, do you think? >> i think it had a lot do with it. i think it's what we have seen in the past where debate performances can make polls fluctuate points enormously. i would tell you that carly fiorina's surge is about the debates. people got to see her. her name i.d. went up. the debate had a lot do with it. we will see more poll fluctuations in the republican side, particularly as the field goes winding down and whittling down. i think hillary clinton's bigger problem is she's got joe biden on a family vacation this week who is probably reading all about her e-mail issues and is deciding and mulling over with his family and taking their counsel on whether he should run. if joe biden runs, he will take a huge chunk out of her,
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particularly out of her piece of the pie. >> brad, is that a consider? are you looking at that? >> look, you know, vice president biden will make his own decision. we have always said this would be a competitive primary. i think -- look at all of the focus. every republican at the debate, 32 types mentioned hill cry c e clinton. the entire focus is on hillary clinton. she's beating every republican. she's winning in iowa. she's winning across the country. given all the slings and arrows, she's in good shape. >> one person who is definitely going on the at tack -- >> she's not beating every republican in polls in the swing states. >> she was winning in every single state against every single republican they polled. >> it's so funny. we like the polls when we're on top and we don't pay attention to the polls when we're not.
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it's amazing. >> isn't it funny how it works that way? >> i think there must be something to it. ana, let me ask you this. one republican is jeb bush who has been on the attack on hillary clinton, especially when he was laying out in his big foreign policy speech. he was attacking her on iraq. this is something we have discussed. he stumbled over the iraq issue multiple times. why is he going there? is he just -- does he risk reminders of what could be his greatest vulnerability, his last name? >> i think every time that hillary clinton and jeb bush are duking it out over policy, it's good for american voters, because they get to see a stark contrast. it's frankly good for jeb bush and for hillary clinton. i think she would rather be duking it out with jeb on policy than having to give explanations about her e-mails being investigated by the department of justice. jeb needs to do this.
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why? because we face a huge threat from radical islam. anybody running for president, frafr frankly, should be laying out specifics and a plan, a strategy, something that this administration by their own admission has not had on how we are going to defeat what is an enormous threat to our country. >> a lot of people would welcome more specifics than less, except i've been seeing that a lot of voters don't seem to care about that. brad, ana, great to see you. "outfront" next, inmates charge that guards tried to beat information out of them to find out about the escape of two killers from a new york prison. are they telling the truth? breaking news, this huge, huge fireball has killed at least 17 people. ahead, why firefighters are struggling to bring it under control still.
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tonight, shocking claims of abuse during the desperate hunt for two escaped convicts in upstate new york. inmates at the clinton
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correctional facility say they were beaten and placed in solitary confinement hours after richard matt and david sweat slipped out of the prison. "the new york times" first reported that guards even threatened to water board one prisoner during the interrogations. an investigation is under way to determine what really took place. miguel marquez is "outfront" tonight. cnn spoke to one of the prisoners who claims he was abused. what did he say? >> reporter: also in the honor ward with matt and sweat. he has been transferred to sing sing. he says he was roughed up in his cell. he was transferred without any cause whatsoever. while he was transferred, his ankles were shackled so tightly that it left bruises to this day. the producer who went to speak to him saw the bruises on his ankles. he was kept in solitary confinement for up to two weeks. he has filed a"the new york timn
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inmate next to matt. he said he was put into a broom closet. he claims a plastic bag was put over his head, they beat him, they threatened to water board him. he says the governor, when he went on the tour, walked up to his cell and said to alexander, i bet you heard a lot of sawing last night, didn't you, and gave him his best tough guy stare and then the governor walked off. all of this says the prison services of new york that is hearing the complaints says there are so many complaints out there and so many of them are of similar nature, it's worrisome. >> they are racking up, 70-plus at this point have been filed. what do prison officials say? >> reporter: the union -- the corrections union calls these one-sided complaints by convictconvict ed felons. these are allegations and says they are cooperating with the official investigation and doesn't want to take the
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concerns of convicted felons basically into account. they call it misinformation. the new york state department of corrections says there is an investigation being done. it has been referred to the inspector general of new york state. if it is found that guards abused any prisoners, they will be punished to the full extent of the law. >> miguel, thank you so much. "outfront" with us now, eric jensen, he served time with the escaped prisoners. also with us, jeff dumos, a former sergeant at clinton correctional facility. eric, you heard what miguel was laying out. you have inmates who are claiming they were not only abused, they were placed in son teary confinement. "the new york times" reports that one inmate said guards put a plastic bag over his head. do you believe it? >> from what i have seen in my experiences, i don't think it's too far from the truth. i do believe that these things do happen. now that clinton is in the
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spotlight and that people are beginning to speak out, the world is listening, because they want to know what goes on insides these places. >> did you ever see any retaliation like this yourself? >> i have seen many, many forms of retaliation, but i have never seen them put a plastic bag over anybody's head or use anything to choke them out, a windbreaker. i did see them check people out with their arms, their hands. they beat them up. they sent them to their cell, put them in solitary confinement because they want wounds to heal before they release them into the population. >> it's interesting, jeff, i heard a similar story what eric is saying, a heard a similar story from an inmate earlier today. what do you make of it? >> typically, what i think of this is that because the spotlight is now on clinton correctional facility, any inmate that has any type of grudge can now voice whatever he wants to and somebody is going to listen to him. these guys said -- actually,
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inmate jensen -- former inmate jensen across from you, he stated that early they're joyce mitchell had sexual relations with inmate matt or sweat in a broom closet. that was found to be untrue because there are no broom closets for security reasons. these guys that have been sitting in their cells for 20 something days watching tv have come up with the story of the broom closet. they said that people from ciu with the blue windbreakers came in and intear gated them, did whatever. but if you look at the new york daily news i believe, they had the front cover because ciu was used for delivering water and food and supplies to the certain members that were out in the field. they were not allowed in the facility. >> hold on one second. >> the interrogation -- >> answer to jeff. >> i have never said they had sex in a broom closet.
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there's a terrible room in the shop which i'm sure you are familiar with. if the allegations were true or not, they asked my opinion on that subject. i gave it to them honestly. it was the opinion of the shop at that point when we were in there working. allegations that are coming out, of course, people are going to speak up now. because they can be heard. when they couldn't -- when they didn't have a voice and nobody would listen and code of silence kept them silent in the walls, their screams were still coming out but nobody was listening. >> this speaks to -- jeff speaks to what we have heard from the guards union, that they say -- they point out that this information, these claims are coming from less than reliable sources is what they are saying. >> a human being is a less than reliable source. if it came from on other side of the world, it would be a reliable source. we all make mistakes. i'm a convicted felon. it doesn't mean everything i say is a lie.
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i do to some point maybe there is some exaggeration and embellishments from some inmates. in a consensus, i believe that some of these allegations did happen. >> when it comes down to it, it's an inmate's world againd a the guards. >> to a point. like what i was saying, you know, they implicated ciu. ciu wasn't there because it's been photographed, videotaped. the only people that were doing the interrogations were the new york state police and the interribi internal affairs. you have video proof. you have photo proof. then you have two separate entities separate than the facility doing the investigations. any time an inmate is injured, like these guys claimed that they were left in their cell, they didn't seek medical attention. any time that a convict says, i have injuries, i have been
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roughed up by staff, immediately he is brought up to medical and photograph are taken, front, rear, left side, right side. then we take individual pictures of any injury that he says he has on his body, whether there's one mark or 100, we take pictures of every single body part. there's proof everywhere you go. we have to cover our job. we have to cover ourselves. all the photographs are taken. documentation is there. with all those people in the jail, the governor was there by 11:00 a.m., you had the state police, ig and the fbi in there. you are telling these guys are trying to say that with all those entities, all those higher up people that they're getting beat up? i just -- i don't believe it. i think it's for money. >> we can see clearly here the mistrust and the challenge now that investigators have to weed through this. eric, jeff, thank you. "outfront" for us next, tonight we are learning new details about the 49-year-old
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rookie officer who shot and killed this unarmed texas teenager, including what he did before he joined the force. new details on this massive explosion that's killed at least 17 people and injured hundreds. (music) imagine - these kids won't have to remember passwords or obsess about security. for them, every screen is meant to be touched. and web pages are meant to be scribbled on, and shared. they'll expect their devices to listen to them. and talk. and sing. and tell a funny joke.
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breaking news. a violent explosion killing at least 17 people, injuring as many as 400 others in a port city about 90 miles from beijing. look at this. the blast tearing through a warehouse containing what local media is calling dangerous and flammable material. as firefighters struggle to control the blaze, two more explosions rocked the city. the shock waves were felt miles away. local residents thought it was a nuclear blast. others likening it to an earth quake. just amazing. that's still happening tonight. for us tonight, the rookie police officer who was fired
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after killing a black unarmed teenager. he is fighting back. he says he acted to save his and other officers' lives. the police chief sees it differently. >> reporter: officer brad miller's lawyer says the arlington police chief's biggest fears are getting paper cuts and protecting his six figure salary. that's part of the lawyer's bliss tertering reaction to the firing of the rookie officer who faces possible criminal charges. >> officer miller exercised inappropriate judgement. >> reporter: miller's lawyer says the police chief is acting like a monday morning quarterback and that officer miller's decision was made in the heat of a violent confrontation to save his and other officers' lives. miller's boss says he wasn't convinced by miller's reasoning to use deadly force the newt ige entered the car dealership and confronted taylor without his
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training partner. >> it was a result of his poor decision to enter without assistance and without an arrest plan. >> reporter: a former dallas area police officer and now defense lawyer says the chief's decision has stunned cops on the force. >> absolutely kills moral in a police department when you have officers who feel like this is a rush to judgment. i have heard that officers think the rookie was a scapegoat. >> reporter: miller graduated from the police academy in march. before becoming a cop, brad miller spent five years working as a hairdresser. two of his co-workers who asked not to be identified describe him as very kind, someone who would bring flowers on mother's day for the women in the salon. they also say toward the end of his time before joining the police academy, he often talked about how much he wanted to be a police officer. adrian and josh taylor question about officer miller fatally shot their brother. >> he didn't do anything in that video that would sentence him to
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death. you know? or anything, you know, burglary or probation here or there. >> reporter: his family says they aren't looking at the shooting as a racial issue. >> every person's life matters. yeah, my brother was black. he couldn't help it. we're going to trust in the system. trust in god. just keep praying. >> reporter: those portions we read from the statement from the lawyer for brad miller were part of it. he accused the police chief of caving to anti-police activists and also described his actions by firing officer miller as an insult to rank and file police officers. a scathing, blistering attack from the lawyer for brad miller. here in arlington tonight the family of christian taylor expected to be at this church at a gathering where the police chief will appear as well. >> that case is before the
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district attorney there. thank you so much. "outfront" next, why does donald trump keep threatening to run as an independent? could he really win if he does? it might be tougher than he thinks. a special report is next. this ram quietly munching his lunch until a drone drops in. jeanne moos has that story. out of high strength steel ande the other is made of aluminum. now i'm gonna release a 700 pound grizzly bear into the room so you better pick a cage and get in it. this is crazy. oh my goodness. why did you pick the steel cage? harder for the bear to get into steel. you want to see something else made with high strength steel? that's the chevy silverado. made with high strength steel for high strength dependability. beautiful. this is highly irregular. okay! fun's over. . aw. ♪
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so what else can you give me? same day delivery. the ottoman? thank you. fico scores are used in 90% of credit decisions. so get your credit swagger on. go to experian.com, become a member of experian credit tracker, and take charge of your score. tonight donald trump's opponents not happy he is standing atop the polls. moments ago, rand paul mocking and mimicking the gop front-runner. >> my favorite is, you know the reason i tell women they're ugly
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is because i'm so good looking. everybody knows i'm good looking, right? >> paul may not want donald trump in the republican primary would a trump third party run be even worse for the gop. he keeps threatening it, will he do it. tom foreman is out front with tonight's money and power. >> reporter: of all the headline grabbing moments at the gop debate, nine word by donald trump may be all that really matters. his answer to the question. will you rule out running as an independent? >> you are not going to make the pledge? >> i will not make the pledge at this time. >> all right. >> essentially with this threat he is saying to the republican party, you know, it's -- a nice little party you have got there. it would be a shame to see something happen to tip. >> reporter: there are several factors to kid if an independent trump appears. first the votes. in the past five presidential elections the average margin of victory in the popular vote has
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been 4.5%. any independent who siphons off just that much could make a difference. and it has happened. >> i would only run -- >> reporter: in 1992, billionaire businessman, ross perot captured 19% of the vote. politicos argue over how that affected clinton's win over bush. but trump made his thoughts clear. i think every single vote that went to ross perot came from bush. second, the money. barack obama, mitt romney and their supporters spent close to $1 billion in 2012. so trump without a party behind him might have to pony up close to a half billion. as point of reference. perot spent $108 million inflation adjusted dollars remember he lost. and then there is election law. ohio for example has what is called a sore loser law. meaning a candidate who runs for a party's nomination and loses
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cannot then run as an independent in the general election. so officials there have already ruled. from is either a republican or he's off the ballot. all of that suggests if trump gives of on his hope of becoming the republican nominee and goes independent, he is almost ser tser -- certain to lose. but could be a factor shaping the election, pushing issues and deciding who wins. kate? >> he sure can. out front for us tonight. sal russo, political director for ross perot's historic third party presidential run. sal, thank you for coming in. you know third party runs. and you know donald trump. can he pull it off? >> i don't think so. i don't think he is going to attempt it. he is a smart businessman. the prospects for a third party are remote. i think he sees himself as leading the polls as a republican he is going to give it his best shot. if he makes it he makes it. if he doesn't he doesn't ac.
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a third party is doomed to failure. donald trump doesn't like failure. i've don't see him going that direction. >> that is true, sal. ross perot's bid was the most successful third party bid. trump has more money. why wouldn't he be just as successful or more so, what is it? >> he talked about running for president. i first heard it back in 1984 when heap was was at the repub convention in dallas. something on his mind the he shares the frustration so many americans. things aren't working in washington. his add ages, let's give it a shot. he captured the americans attention. leading in all the polls. ross perot was leading in 49 states in the general election when he first got into the race. there is some opportunities out there. just a difficult path. but right now, his focus has to be on trying to win republican primaries and, republican caucuses. i think that's what he is going to focus on. >> sal, thank you.
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great to see you. >> you bet. thank you. >> coming up next, jeanne moos with the midair collision between an eagle and a drone. here's the hint. the drone lost. with nutritious energy and strength. i'll take that. yeeeeeah! new ensure active high protein. 16 grams of protein and 23 vitamins and minerals. ensure. take life in. a new sea chance to tryew look. something different. this summer, challenge your preconceptions and experience a cadillac for yourself. ♪ the 2015 cadillac srx. lease this from around $339 per month, or purchase with 0% apr financing. but it is not the device that is mobile, it is you.
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and here is jeanne moos. rancheros wh >> reporter: when we send in the drones what must the animals think? it's enough to make a gator glare and a ram wonder. does that thing bite? the latest confrontation pitted an eagle against a drone. the eagle used its talons to knock the drone out of the sky. the videographer wrote "this is the last thing a small bird sees when a wedge tailed eagle decide you are dinner. "the eagle said to be uninjured. the drone operator had some
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advice for his fellow pilots. if you see a bird of prey while flying, land. the same could be said if you see a chimp waving a branch at a zoo in the netherlands. tushie demolished a $2,000 drone and she and her friend had their mug shots taken as they examined the debris. who need a stick when you have got horns. a new zealand ram, named rambro, head butted a drone. then went after the guy who came to retrieve it. >> move out. >> reporter: at a zoo in naples, florida, an agitated alligator could do nothing but lunge. while elsewhere in florida, a swarm of bees engaged in aerial combat. with a tv news drone. >> when you see the video it looked like "star wars." >> even landing. >> he is sitting there trying to sting the lens. >> reporter: for a pair of weeping labs the drone was nothing but an expensive dog
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toy, a frisbee with blade. perhaps the most futile effort to down a drone, a golfer missed by a mile when he threw his club. that doesn't count as a birdie. but this does. jeanne moos, cnn, new york. >> "ac 360" starts right now. good evening. thank you for joining us. tonight the first cnn polling on the first big test in the 2016 presidential campaign winning iowa. there is new polling as well on the second challenge winning new hampshire. two big takeaways, nothing it seems can hurt donald trump in the eyes of republican voters. if they see you as a political insider, well right now you are in big trouble. outsiders whether donald trump, ben carson, or carly fiorina they're clearly in. that hold true to some degree over on the democratic side where vermont senator bernie sanders took his first polling lead over hillary

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