tv Fareed Zakaria GPS CNN October 25, 2015 7:00am-8:01am PDT
this is gps, the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. today on gps, the finger pointing on the campaign trail has reached back into history. first up, does president bush bare the brunt of the blame for the 9/11 attacks? >> say what you want, the world trade center came down during his time. >> trump's words have reignited the debate. i will talk to the director of the 9/11 commission and bush's
deputy secretary of defense. what about iraq? politicians love to say who's to blame for the sorry state that nation is in today, bush or obama? i will ask british prime minister if the rise of isis can be traced back to the 2003 invasion. >> of course, you can't say those of us that removed saddam in 2003 have no responsibility for the situation in 2015. plus, ben bernanke on bringing the world back from the brink of financial disaster. finally, want know who will win the 2016 presidential race? i'll tell you about the people who have already got the answers. super forecasters. i'll explain. first, here's my take. justin trudeaux sweeping victory
in canada that voters in the western world are moving left. the last year has seen the new leader of britain's party and bernie sanders has shaken up the democratic primaries. theless so lessons are complica. he benefitted from the ten-year itch. voters usually want a change no matter how popular the leader is. think of tony blare. canada's conservatives have held office for nine years and their leader is no tony blare being perceived as intelligent but reserved. his party was in third place months ago. some of the momentum has to do with his name. he's the son of canada's most
famous prime minister but much of it had to do with the kind of campaign that was neither very left wing or popu list. he promised to run modest deficits. that's something most mainstream economists would support. he's refused to raise canada's low corporate tax rate although he wants a slightly higher income tax for the top 1% to fund a middle class tax cut. he's been noncommittal on the trade deal that places him to the right of hillary clinton. he wants to legalize marijuana and promised that canada will have a climate change policy. canada truly lurching left ward, the beneficiary would have been its new democratic party which has been the party of populism and draws from the labor
movements. the hallmark of populism is anger. justin was resolutely cheerful. in his acceptance speech he spoke of the power of politics and sunny ways. when he tried to stir up fears about canada's muslim population trudeux loudly rejeked it. if you want to hear angry rhetoric you can get it from bernie sanders and from most of the republican candidates for president. >> i'm not going to be bout by anybody. >> if i wanted it, i would have gotten it. >> right wing populism is about culture. both hate the big city elites who run the country and the world. populism making noise and gets attention but it rarely wins.
princeton historian noticed that th they misread history. the real democrats were reformers, advocates of prohibition and ardent believers of the farms and small towns. they always lost at the polls. the democratic party when it's been successful has never been about populism. kennedy, johnson, clinton, obama are all part of the movement that embraces free trade, immigration, regulated capitalism and cultural diversity. above all it's been optimistic and forward looking. one could imagine fdr in the depths of the depression caulking his head up with his cigarette holder jutting skyward saying sunny ways. for more go to cnn.com/fareed.
let's get started. donald trump dropped a bombshell when he implied that george bush should have done more to stop the attacks. listen to what he said. >> they did know it was coming. the head of the cia told them it was coming. they did have advance notice and didn't work on it. >> jeb bush called his an unserious candidate with dangerous views on national security. cnn said trump was right. i wanted to get away from the campaign rhetoric and try to get to the truth. i've asked two people with inside and experience to join
me. phillip was the executive director of the 9/11 commission. the independent bipartisan group that was formed to study why america was surprise bid the attack. the 9/11 commission did say that, in a sense, the system was blinking red. i think it used that phrase at several points but that the united states government at the highest levels was not attentive. >> actually, the commission report did not say the united states government at the highest levels was not attentive. that's not accurate. president bush was following these issues constantly. in fact, his intelligence briefer at the time who later became a top official in the obama administration has recently published a memoir saying bush was following this all the time. >> i'm quoting from the report.
it says given the character and face of their policy efforts we do not believe they fully understood how many people al qaeda might kill and allow soon they would do it. >> we said that about both administrations. the u.s. did not grasp how large this attack could be. that was true of both the clinton administration and bush administration and true for the congress as well. otherwise, they might have considered taking more radical action about afghanistan. to be clear about the trump charge, which i think is ignorant, but i think he does no better so it's worse than ignorance. with its key participants already in the united states and with the plan already set. at that point you're talking
about operational level opportunities. kind of blaming president bush for this is like saying if there's a murder in new york city tomorrow the police chief is at fault. >> how should people understand the august 6th cia memo. this is old history but they had a memo that was titled bin laden determined to strike the u.s. and how to understand as barton gillman pointed out that the cia raised 36 times the possibility that al qaeda might strike since president bush took office. >> in both administrations the cia was sounding the alarm that al qaeda was a dangerous threat. this both administrations the president heard that alarm and was attentive to the problem. the issue that we pointed out in the report was whether the
government as a whole and all the operations of the government were doing enough to respond to those intelligence headlines they were getting the the briefing was a briefing president bush asked for. >> paul, one of the things the 9/11 commission did talk about was a point at which the system was blinking red. that's the cia was warning of these things and the cia reports that you, the then deputy secretary of defense, questioned those concerns saying that maybe al qaeda is just doing this to test america's response. it's not a real threat. >> that doesn't mean it's not a real threat. it means they could be doing what is standard in the intelligence world which is spoofing your responses to try to see how you do respond and also perhaps to lull you to sleep when you get reports later.
we did not get that level of alarm that tells you maybe they did go silent deliberately. the problem before anything else was we were on peacetime footing. that meant the fbi always had to defer with respect to the use of foreign intelligence and investigating people because our bias was in the direction of not using surveillance to go after people who might not be legitimate targets of surveillance. our policy was toward bombing afghanistan which basically did no good. i think that's a lesson we need to learn today. to have done what we needed to do, the best opportunities were not during the eight months of the bush administration but during the eight years of the clinton administration. to be fair to president clinton, if he had come forward after 1988, after the embassy bombings and said we have to invade afghanistan, nobody would have supported that. nobody realized how bad the problem was until after 9/11.
>> phillip, if high policy makers cannot be held responsible for this huge attack, the largest attack on the united states ever, do you believe in your professional judgment is it appropriate to blame the secretary of state of the united states for an attack on a consulate in benghazi? >> i think that the -- i'll leave it to the american people and congress to figure out if secretary of state clinton has any responsibility for that attack at all. from what i've heard of the evidence, of course, she's not responsible for the attack. then the issues just become issues about policy regarding your embassy posture and the level of embassy security and things like that. i don't blame president franklin roosevelt for pearl harbor either. that doesn't mean you didn't try to learn lessons from the pearl
harbor attack. >> good to have you on. >> thanks for inviting us. >> thanks. up next, the other great foreign policy debate that keeps cropping up on the campaign trial, iraq. i have a fascinating interview that i did with the former british prime minister. i asked blare about his regrets over the war. he actually has a few.
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right here on cnn. we started working on it because of all the rhetoric on the campaign trial. >> if i'm president of the united states we're going in on the ground, and we're going to pull the cal fate up by its root and we're going to kill every one we can find because they're coming here. >> one of the many fascinating guests in the hour is tony blare. who is george bush most visible partner on the war. he's suffered the consequences for it. i want to know how he feel about his decisions now that he's had more than 12 years to reflect on them. he was in london when we recorded the interview, and i was in new york. >> tony blare, thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> you faced huge opposition in britain to your decision to participate and support the invasion of iraq. what kept you so firm in your
conviction that it was the right decision? >> i had a very clear view after 9/11 that we should be with america in confronting the threat of terrorism. the issue of terrorists getting hold of wnd was the major next dimension of this entire struggle. i felt it important that the u.s. didn't face this alone and we were with them. >> of course, for that you were occasionally derided as bush's poodle. how did that make your feel? >> in politics, particularly when dealing with these types of decisions, you get used to a certain amount of abuse. it didn't make a great deal of difference if people criticized me. what was important was that all the way through we were heavily involved with the development of policy and we were also building the alliance with the u.s. that allowed us to confront what we
thought then and i think a case for staying still now is the biggest danger of this type of terrorism, which is you get a coming together of people who have prepared to cause mass deaths with those people who are prepared to use weapons of mass destruction whether a nuclear chemical or biological. >> given that hussein did not prove to have weapons of mass destruction was the decision to enter iraq and topple his regime a mistake? >> when ever i'm asked this i can say i apologize for the fact that the intelligence we received was wrong because even though he used chemical weapons extensively against his own people and against others, the program in the form that we thought it was did not exist in the way we thought. i can apologize for that.
i can also apologize for some of the mistakes in planning and our mistake in our understanding of what would happen once you remove the regime. i find it hard to apologize for removing saddam. it's better that he's not there than he is there. >> when people look at the rise of isis, many people point to the invasion of iraq as the principal cause. what do you say to that? >> i think we've got to be extremely careful. we misunderstand what's going on in iraq and syria today. of course, you can't say those of us who remove saddam in 2003 than in 2015. the arab spring which began in 2011 would also had its impact on iraq today. isis came to prominence from the base in syria and not in iraq.
that leads me to the broader point, which i think is so essential when we're looking at policy today, which is we have tried intervention and putting down troops in iraq. we've tried intervention without putting in troops in libya. we've tried know intervention at all but demanding regime change in syria. it's not clear to me that even if our policy did not work subsequent policies have worked better. >> you went from being the most successful british politician of your generation, perhaps of a lot of larger time period than that to being called a walk. how has that made you feel? >> look, i think the responsibilities you get when you get a big position of power, in the end, you've got to do what you think is right.
whether it's right, everyone can have their judgment about that. when i think of my crime, if you like, which is removing saddam hussein and i think of what's happened in the world as we watch syria unfold in these last years with hundreds of thousands of people dying, often innocent civilians, starved, bombed, subject to the most horrific weapons, including chemical weapons and we have stood back and again we bare responsibility for this in europe most of all, we've done nothing. i don't know. i think that's a judgment of history i'm prepared to have. we'll see. this was the most difficult decision i ever took in politics. i was aware at the time i was taking it it was going to be politically difficult. i do point out because i always
do this to people. i did win an election after iraq. it's been a huge political problem. i'm the least significant aspect of this. it's what's happening today that should really concern us. >> tony blair, pleasure to have you on. next, some saw the 2008 financial crisis coming. how about being able to predict when russia might invade ukraine or when isis might attack america? when we come back, people who say they can do just that. super forecasters.
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estimate. a group of regular citizens including lawyers and engineers out perform the average analyst by about 30% according to the washington post. they had no access to classified information and their compensation was a $250 gift certificate to amazon. what in the world is going on here? the group is known as the super forecasters. their story is told in the great new book by dan gardener and phillip tedlock. he's studied the art of prediction for years. it's about as good as a prediction making a random guess. the judgment project was funded by the u.s. intelligence outfit known as the intelligence advance project activity.
waiting for the likelihood of russia invading more of ukraine to the fate of eurozone. tedlock's team reserved their best practices. super forecasters were 60% more accurate than their peers. they were more accurate than online markets in predicting the scottish independence referendum outsmarted by predicting that opec would not lower its oil. what do these people have that others do not? a big key was to turn the larger prediction into a science. they spend lots of money making
predictions and never truly evaluate the accuracy of those predictions. they gave precisely quantified forecast not only predicting if russia would invade and giving when it would happen and give numeric probabilities like 70% instead of saying it's likely. anyone with fair amount of intelligence can develop it with practice. they identified the best common traits. they tend to be open minded considering information from lots of different sources. qualifying their assertions carefully and work well with others disagreeing with people without being disagreeable to foster a healthy debate to inform their guesses. many of our politicians in washington and elsewhere should heed these tips.
do you think you've got what it takes to be a super forecaster. they're still taking volunteers. you can sign up on their website. next, ben bernanke on bringing the global economy back from the brink when he was federal reserve chair and whether it's time now to raise interest rates. ♪ hi, tom. how's the college visit? does it make the short list? yeah, i'm afraid so. it's okay. this is what we've been planning for.
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or insulin may increase risk of low blood sugar. it's time. lower your blood sugar with invokana®. imagine loving your numbers. there's only one invokana®. ask your doctor about it by name. my next guest, ben bernanke, was chairman of the federal reserve board. i once called bernanke the single individual responsible for preventing the financial crisis of 2008 from turning into something much worse. i still believe that, but he has his detractors.
he's just published his reflectior reflections on that time. it's called the courage to act. when you confronted this crisis and think about what you're doing, you recount that you and the treasure secretary had an exchange you thought you would buy $10 billion of treasury bills a week and you decided that too little. you're buying $100 billion of treasury bills a month. how did you have the courage to do this? didn't you feel like you were jumping into unchartered waters? >> the economy needed more help. unemployment in fall of 2009 was 10%. we were worried about inflation falling too low. we had japan has an example of an economy that we didn't want to go there.
we had to figure out what was the next thing we could do. we were not getting much help from congress. it was falling on the fed to act. this was a strategy that the japanese had tried. we thought we pretty much understood what happened. we were not concerned. many critics say it was going to cause hyper inflation and cause the dollar to collapse. we were sure that was not going to happen. it wasn't the best option, in some ideal sense, but it gave us a way to help the economy grow out of a really deep recession. >> you talked about a meeting you had during the crisis with republican members of congress. you were appointed by president bush and they were berating you for what you were doing. they didn't see why you were doing all this. they thought i'm not seeing this in my districts. >> this was during the crisis
itself. this was after lehman brothers failed. paulson and i and president bush were asking congress to pass the tarp bill that would provide capital so the government could make equity investments this banks and help restore financial stability. we had a meeting with the republican caucus and they were saying we don't want to do this. second of all, we're not seeing any problems in our drikts. we see no problems at all. i said you will. i understood you can't have the collapse of financial system and the rest of the economy emerge unscathed. the financial crisis can lead to very serious recessions. that was just another example of that. >> looking forward, do you think there's a great deal of concern in the united states and unease about the economy. even though the economy seems o
produce, for the average american, particularly the average american who may not have fancy college degree, it doesn't seem to be producing. >> that's right. >> what do you say to them? >> it's try. our economy is growing but it isn't benefitting everybody and that's a big problem. over the last 40 years or so we've seen globalization. we've seen huge amount of technical change. we've seen constitutiinstitutio. all those things have worked against guy with the high school degree and not too much experience with technological change. it's a very tough problem. a very long term problem. one we need to address as a country. it's not something that monetary policy can do much about. i hope that we will work, continue to work as a country to try to address this. if the economy is not broadly serving the population and if people don't have chance to get
ahead, really the economy is not going what we want it to do. >> final question, should janet yellen raise interest rates at the next fed meeting? >> i was her predecessor. she's got some tough calls. right now we have a recovery in the united states which is domestically strong. housing is strong, auto, consumer spending has been pretty good. we have a global economy. the tough decision she and her colleagues have to make is is there enough domestic momentum to keep us moving. i think that's the essence of the question. >> pleasure to have you. >> thank you. up next, the president of one of the largest and most important countries in the world, a country royaled by crisis. when we come back, brazil.
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when you have kids, you'll understand. this is the life of a rebel. sorry, mom. big day? ah, the usual. moved some new cars. hauled a bunch of steel. kept the supermarket shelves stocked. made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. what's up for the next shift? ah, nothing much. just keeping the lights on. (laugh) nice. doing the big things that move an economy. see you tomorrow, mac. see you tomorrow, sam. just another day at norfolk southern.
my next guest is the president of brazil. she runs the largest country by size in south america. it's the largest in the entire southern hemisphere. by population it's the sixth largest in the world and the economy is the eighth largers. it's an extremely important nation but how it's fallen from the days when it was the first letter in the bricks. the emerging countries that bankers placed great expectations on. today brazil is in crisis. actually, it's in many crises. the first is the country's economy. just last week fitch downgraded
their credit to just above junk status. s and p has declared it junk. the nation's unemployment rate grew by more than 50% between last year and this year. many analysts believe brazil could face an economic crisis that could have global consequences. the economic problems are compoundsed by political ones. the cause for the president's impeachment grow louder every day. a recent poll recorded the lowest ever approval ratings for a brazilian government. just 10% polled rated the government great or good. i asked the president about her troubles, but i began about asking about her unique personal history. >> madame president, thank you for joining us. >> it's a pleasure to be here with you. >> for those of our viewers who have not encountered you and your story, you were part of a revolutionary movement that was
fighting the military dictatorship of brazil after the coup in '64, '65, what does it feel like to have gone through that background of being -- you've been described as a marxist revolutionary and now you're the president of brazil. >> yes. i am part and parcel of the history of brazil. my life trajectory very much reflects the country's trajectory and history in as much as we came out of a sad chapter in our history. i was arrested for three years during that period and during that period all of us had to fight for our freedom. from that point in time on wards the movement evolved and brazil became a fully fledged democracy. >> you were tortured, even
though you were a woman, how did that change you? >> the only way to overcome torture is being coming out of it without any hatred and any sense of revenge or persecution but with a firm conviction that never again can you allow your country, your nation to again practice this kind of torture due to political reasons or any other reasons. >> let's talk about brazil and its current crisis. growth in your presidency has averaged 2.1% which is less than half of that of your predecessor. a lot of your critics say that what happened was brazil had this golden opportunity. china was growing. china was importing a lot of things that brazil exported. you had a lot of growth and you had chance to make the reforms that would have put brazil in a very strong position, but that
period was wasted. >> no. we did not miss that golden opportunity to change the brazilian economy. i think, perhaps, the main value we have achieved in this period was that never before in the history of brazil the country evolved to become a middle class economy with an extremely strong consumer market. we brought out of extreme poverty 36 million people within a very short time span between 10 to 12 years only. brazil used to be a predominantly mainly poor country and predominantly middle class country. >> you will use this crisis to push forward structure reforms? >> yes, that's why i'm telling
you that main issue from now on we have a clear cut commitment towards social security reform. we have a commitment to tax reform. we have set up a social security farm in brazil to discuss precisely social security and the proposed reform. we want to leave this legacy. a legacy where we take advantage of the crisis, a painful experience, but we take advantage of it as an opportunity to engage in the reforms that will prove decisive for the upcoming cycle of growth. >> you face a possible impeachment process back in brazil. you've described this, you've compared it to the coup of 1964, '65, when the military took over. isn't this a case the opposition party said they're investigating deep, deep corruption that's taken place under your administration. is this not a very to be
investigated? it seems pretty serious. >> no, please notice one thing. the main problem with those who want my impeachment is their lack of motivation. those who open the investigation, not only allowing it to proceed but giving them the conditions to go ahead was my administration. what's really going on in brazil? what's going on in brazil is we had major conflict during the elections. elections are marked by conflictive relations that's normal. you have the disputs or competitions during the election and after that's over and the new stage starts. once the elections are finished, you reestablish political relations. it was not so this time around. we have to be very careful about the issue for the following
reason. our democracy is still in its adolescent stage. >> thank you so much for joining us. >> thank you for the opportunity. it's been a pleasure talking to you. ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ i use what's already inside me to reach my goals. so i liked when my doctor told me i may reach my blood sugar and a1c goals by activating what's within me. with once-weekly trulicity. trulicity is not insulin.
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not a book but a magazine. the november, december issue of foreign affairs is headlined the post american middle east. it's a suburb collection of essays on the turmoil in the region and what outsiders can and cannot do about it. it's on newsstands everywhere. now for the last look. computers, phones and cameras are backed up to hard drives and servers. did you know that chick peas and fave beans are backed up add well. it's the world's largest seed bank referred to as the doomsday vault. the mission is to safeguard the world's agriculture from catastrophe. the first ever withdrawal had
been made. the event that necessitated this first doomsday withdrawal was not nature's fury but the syrian civil war. the syrian city of aleppo was home to a seed bank that has more than 140,000 seeds samples including a barley collection. threatened by the war in 2012, the scientists had shipped 80% of the those seeds to banks like this in norway. today the organization is building new facilities outside syria and with drew 38,000 seeds from the norway bank to begin replenishing their seed supply. it just goes to show this type of back up can be crucial for environmental and manmade disasters. the correct answer to the gps challenge question is b. 14.9% of britain's import came from germany in 2014 but china was second with 8.8%.
don't forget my documentary, long road to hell; america in iraq airs tomorrow. thanks for being part of my program. see you next week. good morning. it's time for reliable sources. our weekly look at the story behind the story about news and pop culture. we have reaction to fareed's news making interview with tony blair. the former british prime minister expressing regret for iraq war mistakes. hear one of the few media figures who was against the invasion of 2003. he'll be hear re to respond to blair. rick santorum talking about the red news, blue news deviivi. amazon versus the new york times. we'll get to th