Skip to main content

tv   CNN Newsroom With Poppy Harlow  CNN  January 30, 2016 4:00pm-5:01pm PST

4:00 pm
top of the hour, i'm poppy harlow in new york. o'clock here, 6:00 in the evening in des moines, iowa, where all eyes are right now. just two days before the critical iowa caucuses, breaking news out of iowa. tonight, the latest numbers from the iowa poll from the "des moines register." this is considered the gold standard when it comes to polling in iowa. it's been a mainstay of presidential politics for more than 70 years. here are the numbers. hillary clinton is ahead of bernie sanders 45% to 42%. that is a smaller spread than just a margin of error. on the republican side, donald trump, senator ted cruz leading the republican field, 28% for
4:01 pm
trump, 23% for cruz. rubio coming in at 15%. strait to my friend, my colleague, buer erin burnett. they were waiting for the numbers and now have them. >> this poll has such a long history of accuracy going back to 1943, pretty stunning. as you said, within the margin of error for clinton and sanders. and trump five points ahead of ted cruz, which is also going to be crucial. this is pretty stunning here. >> it is. >> the "des moines register" poll, start on the republican side, had been something donald trump but not pleased with and not paying any attention to because it was up with of the ones that wasn't giving him a real lead, and now it is. >> i think he will be reading this poll and trumpeting it. he is leading 5% in this. what i'm struck by, this is after the debate.
4:02 pm
this includes the thursday night episode here in des moines where he sort of had a split screen sideshow. 28 points, cruz 23. i'm also struck by the fact that marco rubio had 15 points. not surging. there feels like there's energy on the ground out there for marco rubio but he is about in the same position here. so i think that i was expecting a tighter margin between two and three there. the others are completely in the cellar. everyone else is below 10 percentage points. but the democratic side so interestingly inside the margin of error. she's at 45%, bernie sanders at 42%. >> when we look at the challenges for secretary clinton, you've been talking about women. she wins among women overall, but there is a huge age breakdown in this. >> among women over 45 she wins 55% to 32%. among women under 45 he wins 48%
4:03 pm
to 38%. that is fascinating. i've been talking to so many women voters and i'm struck by the fact there's more urgency among older women. they want to see a woman in the white house. they believe she is the most experienced. some younger women i talk to, a 21-year-old student at drake university, she said there's going to be a woman president in my lifetime, probably soon, but i like sand sand, i like his energy. >> doesn't feel this pressure i have to vote for the woman. >> the question is are young voters going to defy convention and turn out to caucus? they haven't really done that much before. those older women voters in iowa know how to do it, drag to the polls through snow, whatever. that is the question. can social media drive young people in ways we haven't seen before? so it's an interesting sort of 48 hours i guess almost exactly until the caucuses. >> it is exciting at the end for all of us watching around the country and the media when it doesn't have a run aeway winner. you want to see it come down to the wire and be about turnout. >> and that it is.
4:04 pm
>> jeff zeleny, thank you very much. joel benenson of hillary for america. that's where you stand and who you're looking at. when you get this poll from the "des moines register" known for its accuracy, lauded for that, and you see it as a margin of error race, do you get nervous? >> no, i don't get nervous. ann salters has a great reputation in iowa. we expected it to be close. margin of error means each number could be plus or minus four points. it's not like it's a four-point race and it's tight. some of the numbers jeff pointed out, lead among women overall, particularly over 45, generally with older voters, we believe we haven't seen all of this poll yet. with we've said since i think the spring, this is going to be close. we have an organization around this state to get our voters to the caucuses because that's what
4:05 pm
this is going to come down to on monday night. >> are you, though, concerned about this issue with younger women? i know you and i have talked about this, but that younger women say, yes, sure, we want a woman in the white house but it's going to happen at some point, i don't need it to happen now, i'm going to vote for who i think is the best person and the young women, i mean, many polls are showing and certainly this one in des moines tonight that younger women aren't making hillary clinton their choice. >> the key in all these contests is to put together a coalition of voters across a range of demographic groups and voting groups that you can win with. it's not about any one group. it's not about one slice of the electorate. the key is we've got a 12-point deficit with women under 45, but a bigger margin with women over 45, and a sigmar gin with women overall. i think you have to piece together your group of voters to get to 50% here, particularly as it looks like we'll be down to a two-person race on caucus night once the candidates who respect viable, in this case, governor
4:06 pm
o'malley, if he doesn't have viability, those voters have to recaucus. >> what's your plan if secretary clinton does not win iowa? >> we've said all the way through, this is going to be a long path to the nomination, it's going to go past iowa, past new hampshire. we want to win in iowa on monday night. we want to go to new hampshire, tighten that race up and win there. but, you know, we feel very good about states beyond that, nevada, south carolina, super tuesday. we don't expect this race to be over. these two states are the first two, but we've got about a thousand delegates that will be decided between super tuesday after new hampshire and super tuesday. that's a lot of delegates. >> all true. most people, including people in your campaign, and maybe you weren't one of them, but a lot of people thought this would be easy and it hasn't been. it hasn't been -- bernie sanders came out of nowhere and tapped into this groundswell of passion that frankly nobody, not just people in hillary clinton's campaign, but nobody expected. >> i never expect these things
4:07 pm
to be easy. when you're running for president of the united states it should be hard, you should be tested. you can't take voters for granted. we said from the beginning we have to earn every vote. no one is going to hand you this job. if it was easy, no one might hand it to you. in these states in particular, the voters here are particular about wanting to see from you, hear from you, and they've got six months to do it. we go on from here, you've got a much shorter time span in each state, you have to communicate more quickly, leverage your strengths and perform very well. >> how will she do compared to barack obama who you worked with in this state? you were one of the architects of that winning strategy all the way through but also in iowa. that was turnout and everything. sit going to come close? >> i didn't see what the projection on the turnout was here but her earlier polls had it at 300,000. we're not seeing anything like that. we're seeing a projected turnout have in the mid-100s. i think people were surprised
4:08 pm
eight years ago at the numbers, the 220-some thousand. i think in terms of how she's going to do here, the strength and what hillary clinton has built this time in the campaign and a much more superior way is a ground organization with 4,000 captains and team leaders and 1,600 precincts around this state. i think that the clinton campaign of 2016 has built a superior organization whereas in 2008 they weren't able to match the organization on the ground of the obama campaign. i think that was an important lesson learned and i think monday night we've got to put the game plan into play and make it work all across the state. >> we'll see if her numbers have changed but also that 300,000 would be stunning. joel, thank you very much. i appreciate it. of course we are here in these final 48 hours. it is very exciting. this is the place to be. you get the feeling of energy, get off the plane, there's reporters from japan and china all over the world to cover the iowa caucuses. all the campaigning and debates. decision time on monday. it will all come down to this, the iowa caucuses, here.
4:09 pm
we are all over it all day long. we'll be here on the ground only on cnn. and we will be back in just a moment. ahead this hour, you'll hear from bernie sanders as all the candidates are making their final pitches. donald trump, both live on the campaign trail on this saturday night. was engineered... ...to help sense danger before you do. because when you live to innovate, you innovate to live. the all-new audi q7. a higher form of intelligence has arrived. you know the symptoms when they start. abdominal pain. urgent diarrhea. now there's prescription xifaxan.
4:10 pm
xifaxan is a new ibs-d treatment that helps relieve your diarrhea and abdominal pain symptoms. and xifaxan works differently. it's a prescription antibiotic that acts mainly in the digestive tract. do not use xifaxan if you have a history of sensitivity to rifaximin, rifamycin antibiotic agents, or any components of xifaxan. tell your doctor right away if your diarrhea worsens while taking xifaxan, as this may be a sign of a serious or even fatal condition. tell your doctor if you have liver disease or are taking other medications, because these may increase the amount of xifaxan in your body. tell your doctor if you are pregnant, plan on becoming pregnant, or are nursing. the most common side effects are nausea and an increase in liver enzymes. if you think you have ibs with diarrhea, talk to your doctor about new xifaxan. wthat you can book on our apps to make sure your little animal, enjoys her first trip to the kingdom.
4:11 pm
expedia, technology connecting you to what matters. all right.
4:12 pm
all eyes on iowa and the gold standard of iowa polls just came out moments ago. two days left before the iowa caucuses. here are the numbers for the democrats. "des moines register" showing bernie sanders trailing hillary clinton by 3%, a smaller spread than the four-point margin of error. sanders just spoke to brianna keilar about his chances in iowa. >> senator, how are you feeling? >> good. feeling great. i think we're going to win this. >> reporter: feeling great, i think we're going to win this. you know who else thinks that? sanders' campaign manager jeff weaver, joining me from des moines. thanks for being with me. obviously you would have wanted to come out on top in this poll because this poll gets it right time and time again. what's your reaction? >> well, i think, look, it's a fantastic poll for us. we're within the margin of error. we started this nine months ago we were in single digits and if i had told you, poppy, back then we were going to be neck and neck a couple days before the
4:13 pm
caucus you would have said i'm insane. here we are, tremendous momentum. bernie is running around the state, huge enthusiastic crowds. you know, it's not bad to be just a little bit behind before caucus day. >> on that sort of strategy underdog perspective, i want you to listen to what sanders said today about his chances. let's roll it. >> sure. >> we will win the caucus on monday night if there is a large voter turnout. we will lose the caucus on monday night if there is a low voter turnout. >> so that surprised me, jeff, because i was thinking why would you say anything but we're going to win? is this part of a strategy in your camp, sort of underpromise, overdeliver? >> no, well, look, i think what bernie said was absolutely true. look, both candidates have enough support in iowa to win. that's the fact. question is who comes out? the larger the voter turnout is,
4:14 pm
the more senator sanders supporters will come out and the more likely it is we will win. people in iowa know if they want bernie sanders to win they have to come out to caucus monday night. >> nancy pelosi came out this week, she's not backing anyone right now publicly, but she said, look, in opposition of sanders, medicare for all plan, she said we are not running on any platform and raising taxes. on top of that, "the washington post" wrote a pretty scathing editorial. here's part of it. you've read it. "mr. sanders is not a great truth teller. he is a politician selling his own brand of fiction to a slice of the country that'ingerly wants to buy it. he would be a brave truth teller if he explained how he would go about rationing health care like european countries do." jeff, your response. >> well, it's laughable. thankfully we're not running for president of "the washington post" editorial board. but i would point people to the
4:15 pm
quad city times editorial that just came out in iowa which talks about senator sanders as a bold visionary who's willing to take on the billionaire class as opposed to his opponent, who represents the stale status quo. i'll take the quad city times over the "washington post" any day. >> all right. let's talk about strategy here because martin o'malley, right, he's nowhere near your camp or clinton's camp in terms of the numbers but according to the rules of the iowa caucus, to get viability he needs to get 15% support in the caucuses on monday night. if he doesn't, those caucusgoers will have to throw their support behind someone else. that will be clinton or sanders. what's your pitch to them? >> right. well, our pitch to them is governor o'malley has laid out a vision, you know, talked about a wall street, the problems with wall street and the overinfluence of wall street. he's talked about a lot of progressive issues. we really think for those voters who have supported governor o'malley, who has been a strong
4:16 pm
candidate in many ways, running a very good campaign, that those voters should look to senator sanders, who has articulated a vision and an agenda which is much closer to the one that governor o'malley has articulated during the course of this campaign. >> so it will be the anti-wall street push you think will tip him over the edge. jeff weaver, appreciate your time. thank you. >> thanks. glad to be here. >> donald trump is the front runner this latest iowa poll out of the "des moines register." so while truth going after the other man on your screen, marco rubio? what's the strategy behind that? be good.
4:17 pm
text mom. boys have been really good today. send. let's get mark his own cell phone. nice. send. brad could use a new bike. send. [siri:] message. you decide. they're your kids. why are you guys texting grandma? it was him. it was him. keep your family connected. app-connect. on the newly redesigned passat. from volkswagen. and feeling good, sort of.n and real, and 500 calories or less. the clean pairings menu. at panera. food as it should be. what makesheart healthysalad the becalifornia walnuts.r?
4:18 pm
the best simple veggie dish ever? heart healthy california walnuts. the best simple dinner ever? heart healthy california walnuts. great tasting, heart healthy california walnuts. so simple. get the recipes at walnuts.org.
4:19 pm
4:20 pm
live pictures, bernie sanders making that final pitch in iowa, just got on the stage there in cedar rapids. we will monitor for you as he goes head to head with hillary clinton. very tight race in iowa. two days before the first in the nation iowa caucuses. on the republican side, ted cruz's camp taking quite a gamble, deciding to shift all their negative advertising from attacking trump to attacking marco rubio. >> voting for cruz can undo a lot of damage. marco rubio led the gang of eight. >> so that move comes as a brand-new poll out of iowa, the "des moines register" poll, shows rubio in third place, far behind cruz and trump. question becomes if trump beats cruz in iowa, could establishment republicans flock to rubio's camp and put him on the path to the nomination?
4:21 pm
joining me former adviser to four presidents, david gergen. what do you think, david? so much talk about this momentum and enthusiasm for rubio. you don't see it in those numbers. >> you certainly don't. and this is a very important poll as you've said all along. and what we see right now is despite the talk of momentum on the ground by rubio, the poll does not reflect it. if this is where the votes come out with rubio 13 points back of trump right now, 8 points behind cruz, i don't see where rubio goes because in new hampshire he's fifth right now in the poll -- in the average of polls. so he has to get close than this in order to make this be much more competitive. otherwise cruz can -- i think cruz has been smart to go after rubio. it may have helped to hold him back. >> mm-hmm. i think if there is one word synonymous with iowa it is ground game. i mean, how many times do we hear it's the ground game, it's the ground game because of the unique character of the caucuses? i want to play this clip for you
4:22 pm
circa 1980, going back a little bit, "saturday night live." it depicts how far some candidates were willing to go to win over iowa voters. >> i don't know what to do. i don't understand it. >> sit multiplication, division and so forth? >> yeah. >> well, i'm a little bit rusty in that area but i would be happy to take the test for you. >> what? senator -- >> we know, david, that cruz has made that pledge to do the full grassley visit, all 99 counties in iowa. trump focused on fewer but larger events. what's the strategy that wins you the people turning out in iowa? >> well, ordinarily, it's the ground game. and cruz apparently does have a ground game that's very, very significant. he's invested a lot of time. he's been very careful, just like barack obama was. there are some similarities.
4:23 pm
but he doesn't have the magnetism, the charisma that obama had. i think his ground game will help and it could close this down. trump is spending entirely now on turnout. but remember this, this is the first "des moines register" poll that has had trump out ahead. >> yes. >> six weeks ago he was down ten to ted cruz. the next poll he was down three. and now he's five points up. and this poll has called every election within just a small margin of error over the last few elections. so trump is in better position than he was because even with an average turnout, it looks like he might win it if he can get voters out, that will make a massive difference. if he can come out with a bag big win here, he's a long way toward looking like he may be inevitable. >> but speaking of trump, right, there's no question he got a lot of attention this week, right, just by not even being there, not even showing up at the
4:24 pm
debate. i want you to consider this. i thought this was well written. it stood out in a cnn.com piece, talking about the absence of trump, his absence exposed a reality of most of the republican debates. bombastic as he's been, he was never at the center of any policy battles. when you look at an iowa electorate, that's what we love about them, they ear so engaged. to some, they're surprised that it raze nates that he's not been on the policy, on the policy, on the policy. >> i agree. i think if there's been a disappointment in this whole campaign it's been how little substance has mattered. it's all been about personality and donald trump sort of driving the conversation both with his antics and frankly he's pretty perceptive how to go after people. i think ultimately in the big campaign that's coming, the general election will have to get back to substance. the country has got to resolve some of these big issues about where we're going on immigration, economic growth and the like. right now this is almost a substance-free campaign on the
4:25 pm
republican side. and it's working in trump's favor. >> all right. david gergen, we'll watch those numbers. tonight, hillary clinton, donald trump, in the lead in iowa. thank you so much. >> watch out for clinton. she must be looking at this vexed by those numbers on the women. that's major that she would be winning so big above 45 and losing so big among under 45. >> young women. yeah. as erin was just talking to her camp about that. david gergen, thanks so much. appreciate it. a lot ahead tonight from iowa on the trail on iowa. on the left, bernie sanders speaking in cedar rapids. on the night another rally in davenport getting under way, waiting for trump to take the stage. stay with us. hey pal? you ready? can you pick me up at 6:30? ah... (boy) i'm here! i'm here! (cop) too late. i was gone for five minutes! ugh! move it. you're killing me.
4:26 pm
you know what, dad? i'm good. (dad) it may be quite a while before he's ready, but our subaru legacy will be waiting for him. (vo) the longest-lasting midsize sedan in its class. the twenty-sixteen subaru legacy. it's not just a sedan. it's a subaru. but you shouldn't forget yoforget this. c. hep c is a serious disease. left untreated it can lead to liver damage and potentially liver cancer. but you haven't been forgotten. there's never been a better time to rethink your hep c because people like you may benefit from scientific advances that could help cure your hep c. visit hepchope.com or call a hep c educator to help prepare you for a conversation with your hep c specialist. hwe'll match any competitorse best prprice. this? what about this? price match guarantee. and this? yep! so no monkey business, no tomfoolery? oh, we do have tom foolery, tom. staples has a price match guarantee. make low prices happen. staples make more happen.
4:27 pm
i'm here to get the lady of the house back on her feet. and give her the strength and energy to stay healthy. who's with me?! yay! the complete balanced nutrition of great tasting ensure. with 9 grams of protein and 26 vitamins and minerals. ensure. take life in! ♪ rootmetrics, in the nation's largest independent study, tested wireless performance across the country. verizon, won big with one hundred fifty three state wins. a t and t got thirty-eight, sprint got two, and t mobile got, zero. verizon also won first in the us for data, call speed, and reliability. a t and t got, text. stuck on an average network? join verizon and we'll cover your costs to switch. what makesheart healthysalad the becalifornia walnuts.r? the best simple veggie dish ever? heart healthy california walnuts. the best simple dinner ever?
4:28 pm
heart healthy california walnuts. great tasting, heart healthy california walnuts. so simple. get the recipes at walnuts.org. the latest cnn poll of polls released moments ago.
4:29 pm
it averages the most recent polls. it shows hillary clinton has a three-point lead over bernie sanders there, 47% to 44%, martin o'malley trailing at 4% support. on the gop side, trump with a six-point lead, 31% over ted cruz's 25%, in third marco rubio with 15%. the candidates making their final pitch, their final case. their closing arguments with iowa voters, two days to go before those crucial first in the nation caucuses. erin burnett live in des moines tonight. >> talk about these last-minute pitches. we're getting one at this moment from bernie sanders. he was slamming hillary clinton over donations to her superpac. here he is. >> so, yes, yep, my opponent can brag about raising tens of millions of dollars for her
4:30 pm
super pac, but our average contribution is $27. i'm very proud of that. to paraphrase abraham lincoln at gettysburg, this is a campaign of the people, by the people, and for the people. >> we recently did a look at the wall street donations, bernie sanders has gotten none from wall street. the only candidate can say that. none can say that other than trump. the crucial poll out of the "des moines register," and a bloomberg poll. this is seen as the gold standard of polls proven to be a reliable indicator how the caucusing will go. here's what it shows on the gop side. 28% for donald trump, ted cruz,
4:31 pm
5% lower at 23%. then you have marco rubio and you have ben carson and everyone else is below that. on the democratic side, that is a dead heat statistically because it's within the margin of error. hillary clinton ahead 45% to bernie sanders' 42%. this will come down to turnout. going on in davenport, iowa, trump will be joined by jerry falwell jr., the evangelical leader, head of the largest christian university in the world who came out and endorsed him. this is one of trump's three rallies today trying to get evangelicals, such a crucial voting bloc in iowa, to go to caucus on monday night. cnn orc poll this week showing trump with a big lead nationally among evangelicals. you see that 39% to 25%. democrat bernie sanders is wrapping his day with a rally and kicking off in iowa as i showed you. he told our brianna keilar this afternoon he's feeling great and he thinks he's going to win. and at 8:00, because they're all out, bernie sanders you just heard there is hoarse, sounded like he's losing his voice, jeb
4:32 pm
bush, marco rubio rallying in dubuque and urbandale tonight. all three clintons will rally at 8:15 in cedar rapids. everybody is out tonight. our political commentator, supporter of jeb bush, bakari sellers, former attorney and member of south carolina house of representatives, supports hillary clinton. i want to get straight to this poll. i looked through it and there are there's some exciting stuff in here. first of all, let's start with the overall. when you look at this, jeb bush nowhere to be seen in iowa. marco rubio at 15%. we have seen a momentum surge from marco rubio. jeff zeleny was saying he thought he would do better than this 15% to ted cruz 25%, trump at 28%. do you share that? >> i thought he was going to do a little better in this poll. but i am wondering this late surge of marco's was captured by this poll. you hear a lot of buzz about marco in iowa right now.
4:33 pm
his campaign is trying to tamp it down but it's out there in the streets. this poll was conducted a day after the debate. i'm wondering if the last 24, 48 hours, having been very significant in shifting some of the momentum to his rival. also, erin, i've been on the ground for a few hours. i've talked to iowans. every iowan i've talked to tells me they haven't made up their mind. so, you know, that's another thing that you have to take into consideration. look, this "des moines register" poll is what everybody else is measuring against. the woman who conducts this poll, people just bow at her feet and say we are not worthy. that's the truth. this is such a weird, surreal year. it is the alice in wonderland year where you've gone through the looking glass and everything is upside down. it's the year of the unexpected on both sides. >> it is. i want to talk about turnout because this is for both sides.
4:34 pm
>> exactly. >> i'm looking at this "des moines register" poll. this is talking about first-time caucusgoers, which is so crucial for donald trump and bernie sanders. bakari, among likely democratic caucusgoers, 55% will have gone to caucus in the past. that's fine. 34% will never have caucused before. in early january when this poll was last taken, that number was only 26. it has surged and that of course is good news for sand sand. >> it is good news for bernie sanders. what we saw in 2008 was we saw a massive turnout for barack obama. in fact, the magic number is 240,000. if bernie sanders hits that number it will be a long night for the clinton campaign. >> are you worried about that? >> no, i'm not, because one of the things we've learned about this campaign is bernie sanders is not barack obama. and i think that has been said and that will be shown throughout the campaign. but even more importantly, turnout is huge. even on the republican side, you know, you had 118,000 show up in '08, 112,000 -- 121,000 show up in 2012.
4:35 pm
in order for trump to run away with this, i mean, i would expect that he would have to have an increased turnout. we'll see. ted cruz is hoping for snow and ted cruz is hoping that the turnout is really low and if the turnout is low, ted cruz might -- >> i will say, bakari said something which is really important. he said, you know, bernie sanders is not barack obama. and that's absolutely true. this is not the hope and change historical candidate that barack obama was. this is an old man. he's a 74-year-old self-proclaimed socialist who has got hillary clinton on the ropes again. so it should be even nor nerve-racking for hillary clinton this time. let's also remember this is pretty much a two-person race on the democratic side right now as opposed to 2008. >> her weakness as a candidate -- >> the country wanted a race. and now we have a race. true indeed. i think that hillary clinton and joel and everyone else who coms up here will tell you there should have been more attention paid to bernie sanders when hifs building momentum, having crowds
4:36 pm
in washington and minnesota, thousands and thousands of people. but this is a race. it's not easy to get to the white house, nor should it be. when we leave here and still have new hampshire, nevada, then everybody coat gets to come to my home, south carolina. >> i can't wait. shrimp and grits are my favorite. everybody on the clinton side thought this was going to be easier. that's why they didn't take sand sand more seriously in the beginning. >> you can admit this -- >> certainly. >> they don't like to admit it. >> i'll get a text message later why did you say that and that's okay, but the fact of the matter is if someone shows up it's like basketball, if they get on the court and put their shoes on like you do, you have to take them seriously, you have to play ball. >> i want to talk about the turnout on the republican side because this is fascinating. attended republican caucuses in the past, 46% of caucusgoers. 40% their first time at a caucus. up from 29% who said that a few weeks ago. that of course is donald trump
4:37 pm
and donald trump cannot win without those first-time caucusgoers going. when you see 40% of voters going first-time caucusgoers, putting aside you support rubio, you like bush, is that a transformational number? >> yes. >> yes. i think what you are seeing is that's the trump phenomenon on paper. you know, that is the $64,000 question for monday. these huge crowds that he has had in the rallies. these huge lines that we have seen for hours and hours to get into his events, will those folks turn out and show up to caucus? if they do, he's going to win. >> but even more importantly, i think this is the test, the question we have to answer on monday -- is donald trump, that phenomenon he has, does he organize like a 2008 barack obama or is his campaign an organization run like he ran his atlantic city hotels? that is the test. if he's organized like barack obama, he'll be the nominee. >> i'm not sure that's the right measure. donald trump is in a class on
4:38 pm
his own. barack obama did not have the celebrity status, the persona -- >> that's true. >> -- the 100% name i.d. back in 2008 that donald trump does. you can't judge him by the same measuring stick. >> thank you both very much, and i'll be seeing you in the next 48 hours. >> loving iowa. >> excitement in iowa. thanks, ann navarro and bakari. tomorrow, ted cruz, marco rubio, bernie sanders will be on "state of the union" with jake in iowa a day before the caucuses. that is coming up tomorrow morning here on cnn. and donald trump may be counting on neycomwcomers to tr win iowa. why his ground strategy in iowa depends on supporter who is never caucused before. a special report on who they are, how they'll make this decision, all done from here on the ground.
4:39 pm
4:40 pm
toto the nation's capitalut to support an important cause that can change the way you live for years to come. how can you help? by giving a little more, to yourself. i am running for my future. people sometimes forget to help themselves. the cause is retirement, and today thousands of people came to race for retirement and pledge to save an additional one percent of their income. if we all do that we can all win. prudential bring your challenges® he was thinking about hishinking joints.ancing. but now he's taking osteo bi-flex, and noticing a real difference in his joint comfort. the feeling originates in this area... spreads throughout the body... to here, inducing hilariously high levels of embarrassment in his son. he knows it's working by that look of abject humiliation on his son's face. you were made to dance, phil. so dance. shows improved joint comfort in just 7 days.
4:41 pm
osteo bi-flex. made to move. i've been blind since birth. i go through periods where it's hard to sleep at night, and stay awake during the day. learn about non-24 by calling 844-844-2424. or visit my24info.com. there is one word that is the name of the game in iowa,
4:42 pm
and that is enthusiasm. not enough to poll well or pack a rally with huge crowds, you have to get the voters to caucus, physically in person on monday night. if candidates cannot get their supporters the tourn ouurn out, chances of winning plummets. more on how to do just that. >> brian has lived in iowa for more than two decades and he's never caucused. >> neve been a candidate that's excited us enough to actually do it. >> reporter: and you want to caucus for trump this time. >> yeah. >> reporter: trump's odds could hinge on people like brian and people who have become so disenfranchised they've given pup. that's why trump is inundating him with e-mails to make sure he shows up. >> seems hike they have their act together. >> reporter: do you think they'll win in iowa? >> i hope so. who wants to back a loser?
4:43 pm
>> reporter: together the polls, trump is less likely to be a loser when you include people who stayed home last cycle. our latest cnn/orc poll in iowa shows trump leading ted cruz 37% to 26%. but when you narrow the question to republicans who participated in the 2012 caucuses, the race becomes a dead heat. cruz polled 30% and trump 28%. >> are you registered to caucus monday? >> reporter: trump's strategy -- make the process as easy as possible. >> i have never caucused before so i'm very excited about this, being the first time. >> reporter: he's even relying on volunteers who have never caucused themselves to simplify it for others. >> thanks for coming. >> reporter: telling them where to go and when to arrive. >> i've been pulling up on my cell phone a website and telling them exactly where they need to go depending on their zip code and address. >> reporter: it's a strategy that has party leaders preparing for the chance that turn out on caucus night could double 2012. when 120,000 republicans cauc
4:44 pm
caucused. >> in the party we're preparing for a doubling of that. not to say that will happen. a lot depends on whether donald trump can convert the passion of his folks into showing up at a caucus. >> reporter: for trump, there's still work to do. several voters told us they're undecided and haven't heard from the campaign. >> an awful lot of trump swag. >> yeah, you know, i'm going with the spirit of it. kind of embracing it today. having some fun with it. >> you just got to wonder how many of those hats, "make america great again" hats have sold so far. you are at this rally in davenport. you looked at the crowd behind you, a lot of supporters. how confident does trump feel right now? >> reporter: well, look, poppy, i think publicly donald trump says he wants to win, he hopes he can win, but all their behavior of him and his staff are very confident going into iowa. earlier today he brought his plane into iowa. he did a fly-by at his earlier event. he invited kids to run around on
4:45 pm
his plane. all of it sends a signal this is a guy who feels comfortable about where he stands in iowa, feels confident about going into caucus night, and the latest polls reflect that. the "des moines register" poll you were talking about is the gold standard and that is a healthy lead with the caucus so soon. >> so critical who he's sitting there with. i don't know if we can get a wide shot but sitting with jerry fallwell jr., a key evangelical, head of liberty university. he just won that endorsement. that was huge for iowa. >> reporter: that's right, and the smart thing he did was roll out key endorsements at very smart times. as he was taking incoming fire from ted cruz about his values and immigration, he rolled out endorsements from sheriff joe arpaio, an immigration hard liner in arizona, an endorsement from skrer wherry fall -- from jerry fallwell jr. his campaign was shrewd unveiling those at the right times. i think you're seeing that
4:46 pm
reflected in the poll numbers. >> the question becomes can he do differently than ronald reagan. reagan skipped the last iowa debate before the caucuses, went on and lost iowa, won new hampshire. trump skipped it yet is getting all the attention. >> reporter: yeah. and i think they are very happy with how that played out. if you saw the "des moines register" front page the day after, it was all about ted cruz having a rough night. if you're donald trump, there's nothing that makes you happier than ted cruz standing in the middle of the stage being caught in the cross fire of all his rivals on every side. i think that's pretty much what we saw happen. >> yeah. no question. all right. thanks so much, sara murray. trump event with jerry fallwell jr. much more from iowa on the trail in iowa. on the left, bernie sanders speaking in cedar rapid. on the right, the rally with donald trump in davenport.
4:47 pm
the 88th southern parallel.
4:48 pm
we had traveled for over 850 miles. my men driven nearly mad from starvation and frostbite. today we make history. >>bienvenidos! welcome to the south pole! if you're dora the explorer, you explore. it's what you do. >>what took you so long? if you want to save fifteen percent or more on car insurance, you switch to geico. it's what you do. >>you did it, yay!
4:49 pm
4:50 pm
ted cruz has had a rough week. that's one of the things you can see from the polls. the next few days, though, we'll see what happens in the next 48 hours. let's go through the just released iowa poll from the des moines register. keep in mind this is the poll that had shown cruz leading. donald trump had scoffed at the poll. let me emphasize this was taken post debate. you see donald trump at 28 and ted cruz at 23. his support has gone down, but -- so it was higher and you could see he was ahead by a significant margin in december. marco rubio has also risen in that time. so what is going on in iowa? is it a must win? i'm joined by representative
4:51 pm
alex mooney. he is the chairman of cruz for president in west virginia. you haven't felt passionate enough to come out to iowa and fight for someone until ted cruz. you've been out today knocking on doors. you've seen the des moines register poll where ted cruz has devel dropped. do you feel worried? >> what surprised me a bit was the number of undecideds. they're still making up their mind, at least a third of the voters i talked to. we did have firm ted cruz spoer supporters. but this close to the actual voting time, two days out for so many people to be undecided, kind of surprising. >> are you -- if he does not win -- if he
4:52 pm
wins iowa this could be a real race. if he doesn't lose iowa a lot of people think donald trump is going to run ahead with this. do you think that? >> i think ted cruz has a long game. in march 1st in the southern states i think he'll do very well. i just think he has to do well in the first beginning states and continue to have a long plan. i think his path to nomination is strong. that's one of the reasons i wanted to come out. he's a consistent conservative. i believe in that. he also has a very strong path to the nomination. >> i want to ask you about these mailers. rand paul tweeted out a picture of them. they come out. they say they're official. they're from the ted cruz campaign. they say official public record at the top. it's not official. it's a campaign mailer. it names your neighbors so they know who you are and then it grades you a to f in terms of your voting history. secretary of state in iowa has come out and said this is
4:53 pm
totally inappropriate. what do you say to that? are you concerned that the cruz campaign is doing this? >> i've actually seen that done in previous campaigns. i think the iowa state party is doing that. i actually recall that being done in west virginia. >> they put official even though it isn't. >> your voting record is official. whether you decide to vote or not is public reason. >> the mailer is not. >> it's reminding people to vote. >> is it dirty? >> it's just telling people to get out there and vote. if you voted or if you did not, every campaign has that information. that's how they target voters. >> so you don't have any issue
4:54 pm
with that. what is going to happen in the final hours for ted cruz to do better? people were saying maybe that would be okay. for cruz to lose iowa is going to be a blow to his momentum, isn't it? >> it's still open. everyone wants to come in first or at least second. >> you think he could still pull it out? >> sure. ted cruz is going to do very well on march 1 social securist. >> southern states. >> yeah. ten southern states as well as texas. there are undecided voters that will walk into the polls in two days and still be undecided. they'll hear speeches before they vote and make up their mind. the question is who comes on monday to vote. i think it's just a big push. >> alex, thank you very much. nice to see you on a balmy
4:55 pm
evening here in des moines. it truly is balmy. they say a blizzard is coming in on tuesday after the voting. but i have to say it feels 40 something degrees out here. i'm over dressed. this is the trail on iowa. you're looking live at what is happening 48 hours before. bernie sanders speaking in cedar rapids. donald trump is going to be speaking there, as you see, right at the podium now at a trump rally in davenport. we have over 15,000 activities that you can book on our app to make sure your little animal, enjoys her first trip to the kingdom. expedia, technology connecting you to what matters.
4:56 pm
you know the symptoms when they start. abdominal pain. urgent diarrhea. now there's prescription xifaxan. xifaxan is a new ibs-d treatment that helps relieve your diarrhea and abdominal pain symptoms. and xifaxan works differently. it's a prescription antibiotic that acts mainly in the digestive tract. do not use xifaxan if you have a history of sensitivity to rifaximin, rifamycin antibiotic agents, or any components of xifaxan. tell your doctor right away if your diarrhea worsens while taking xifaxan, as this may be a sign of a serious or even fatal condition. tell your doctor if you have liver disease or are taking other medications, because these may increase the amount of xifaxan in your body. tell your doctor if you are pregnant, plan on becoming pregnant, or are nursing. the most common side effects are nausea and an increase in liver enzymes. if you think you have ibs with diarrhea, talk to your doctor about new xifaxan.
4:57 pm
4:58 pm
the number is 3,019. that is how many voters were contacted for that des moines register final poll that came out tonight. despite this being the gold standard of polls, a poll is
4:59 pm
still just a poll. in iowa the only numbers that matter come monday night is how many voters from across the state caucus in the precincts to cast their final votes for the man or woman who will be the next president of the united states or at least get that nomination. keep this in mind. there are more than 2 million v registered voters in iowa. we will find out less than 48 hours from now. next on cnn, the history of the eagles. that is up next at 8:00 p.m. eastern. i'm poppy harlow in new york. our coverage of the iowa caucuses continues tomorrow. i will see you here tomorrow night 5:00 p.m. eastern. have a great one.
5:00 pm
♪ there were stars in the southern sky ♪ ♪ southward as you go

141 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on