at the rallies shows that this candidate is doing well. they say that the media is ignoring it and they say the pollsters are just getting it all wrong. donald trump on the defensive. >> i believe we're actually winning. >> reporter: trump flat out denying he's behind in the polls as he blazes through the background state of florida. >> they are phony polls put out by phony media. >> reporter: just hours before hitting the trail, trump did admit he's lagging. >> i guess i'm somewhat behind in the polls but not by much. >> reporter: and with only two weeks until election day, a new cnn/orc national poll shows hillary clinton up by five points. no matter, trump is ratcheting up the attacks on his rival. >> if you look at her plans for syria, these are the plans of a child. these are the plans of a person that doesn't know what she's doing. >> reporter: the media -- >> the media isn't just against me. they're against all of you. >> reporter: and the 11 women accusing him of unwanted
advances. >> they were made up. i don't know these women. >> reporter: trump raising eyebrows over his comments about jessica drake, an adult film performer who alleges he grabbed and kissed her without permission in 2006. >> this one that came out recently, he grabbed me and he grabbed me on the arm. i'm sure she's never been grabbed before. >> reporter: this as clinton works to seal a win in new hampshire, campaigning with liberal favorite senator elizabeth warren. >> i'm with her. are you with her? [ cheers and applause ] >> reporter: both wasting no time hitting the gop nominee. >> this is someone who takes glee in mocking our country no matter who our president is. now, that may be who donald trump is, but this election is about who we are. >> reporter: warren capitalizing on trump's nasty woman comment on clinton from the last debate. >> he thinks because he has a mouth full of tic-tacs that he
can force himself on any woman within groping distance. i got news for you, donald trump. women have had it with guys like you. and nasty women have really had it with guys like you. nasty women are tough. nasty women are smart. and nasty women vote. >> reporter: president obama joining the democratic trump takedown on jimmy kimmel. >> what i don't do is at like 3:00 a.m., i don't tweet about -- >> you don't tweet in the middle of the night? >> people who insulted me. >> do you ever laugh? do you ever actually laugh? >> most of the time. >> reporter: and chris, a poll out just last week here in the state of florida showing trump trailing clinton by four points. early voting under way here in the state right now. trump making two stops in the
state of florida today. clinton making one stop. tomorrow trump heads back to the background state of north carolina. chris? >> jason, you make a lot of good points. people do have to remember this is all in real time. voting is happening every day. donald trump and republicans are blasting this news that obamacare premiums are going to soar next year. trump is declaring that it's over for obamacare. defenders say consumers won't feel the pain. that's a little bit of spin. we're going to get into it with cnn's athena jones live from the white house with more. crunching the numbers. >> reporter: good morning, chris. that's right. sticker shock could be awaiting millions of people when they go to sign up through health insurance through obamacare this year. that's because premiums for the benchmark silver plan are set to rise an average of 25% for plans offered on the federal exchange. that's healthcare.gov. that's compared to an increase of 7.2% last year.
so it's a big jump. when you look at the plans offered by both the federal exchange and the states that run their own exchanges, the increase is a little lower at 22%, but it's still significant. as you mentioned, the government says since the vast majority of obamacare enrollees get subsidies, a lot of folks won't feel the sting of this in their own pocketbooks. the government says 77% of customers will still be able to find a plan that costs them $100 a month or less after the subsidies. it's also important to remember this 25% is an average. it's going to vary across states. for instance, in arizona, which had the lowest premium last year, customers there can expect to see an average increase of more than 100%. meanwhile in indiana, the price for the benchmark plan will actually decrease by 3%. so it'll be 3% cheaper for them. the question is why this big jump in prices. there are several reasons. one, enrollees are sicker and
costlier than the insurers expected them to be. not enough young and healthy people are signing un. the insurers initially priced their plans too low. there's also less competition in the marketplace. so that means there are fewer people offering plans. of course, obamacare has been under fire since its insepg. so this news provides more fodder to be its many critics, from house speaker paul ryan to donald trump, who said yesterday this increase in premiums means obamacare is over. and health care, we know, is an important issue for voters. in our latest cnn/orc poll, 50% of voters said it was important. that number is even higher for hillary clinton's supporters at 53%. so this is something that is very likely to come up on the campaign trail, something she's going to have to address. alisyn, chris? >> that's a safe bet, athena, that donald trump will be talking about this as often as possible. thanks for all that reporting. joining us to talk about that and more, cnn political analyst
jackie kucinich, "new york times" political reporter alex burns, and cnn political analyst david gregory. great to see all of you. before we get to obamacare and what this means for the race, let's talk about the new cnn polls that came out. they're very interesting and they're divided. donald trump wins in some demographics. hillary clinton wins in some. let's look at the overall. okay, let's start with women. there you go. hillary clinton wins with 53 to his 41. he wins with men. alex, 48% to 45. >> and the spreads are different. she had like a 20-point spread with women. not in this poll. trump is over that threshold of 40% we keep talking about. so that's different. >> let's look at independents, that all-important voting bloc and how they're doing at the moment. trump has 45% to her 41%. he's winning with independents.
educated white voters versus noncollege educated, clinton wins. if you have a degree, she gets 52%, he gets 41. alex, what do you see in some of these numbers? >> i think in that last breakdown, it really shows you the story of trump's campaign. if you have a republican candidate who is not winning or at least coming pretty much even with college educated white voters, it is extraordinarily difficult for that person to win the presidency. he makes up for some of it by that staggering margin with noncollege educated white voters. but what we've seen consistently is it's just not enough. this is one of the more encouraging polls for donald trump. a five-point margin is a bit tighter than we've seen elsewhere, which is not that great when you're this close to election day. as chris mentioned before, when you already have people voting. if it's a five-point deficit today, that's a five-point deficit showing up in election results today. and it means that the deficit
he'll need to close next week may be even larger. >> jackie kucinich, headline for you out of this poll. >> when you look at all the issues people care about, donald trump is still winning on the economy. he's losing in all the other -- terrorism and foreign poll, but the economy is what a lot of people end up voting on. so this poll is a bright spot for donald trump amid, you know, some other news that might not be as good. >> go ahead, david. >> i just want to the say, in 2012, the real clear politics average of polls i think was within a percentage point difference. ultimately, president obama won re-election by four percentage points. he won by eight percentage points in 2008. if you're somewhere in between that spread, you look at the race kind of in this position at this point. if it's four or five points or maybe more that she's ahead, you project that forward, which is why it looks like a commanding victory. no democrat has ever won those voters who have a college degree
over a republican. so if professor ron brownstein were here, he'd say this is such a huge deal, particularly because of the fact he's losing terribly among minorities, among women, and among the young. so you look at this talk about rallies versus get out the vote. if this is where the race is, what changes the dynamic? clinton's in a much stronger position to get out her vote. she's got the surrogates. she's got the assets. she's got all these get out the vote efforts, all the celebrities. that's a pretty strong way to finish. we're actually going to get into the infrastructure because we keep talking about voting machines and registration machines and getting out the vote. really, we don't know what that mechanism and what the advantage is. we're going to go through that today. now, one of the things that trump is doing, you got 14 days, right. the layer in this bs sandwich, the mayonnaise is true.
there's always one part that's true, which is polls -- a lot of people, certainly 60% are eating it. he's saying the polls are bogus. but there is a big change. it's confusing to people. the margins of error are different. so how is cnn at 5 but another reputable place is 12? what are the assumptions you see that account for that? >> you even see this when you talk to the campaigns, the two parties. the under lying assumptions they use to build their polling model. who do we think is going to show up on election day? how many democrats? how many republicans? does enthusiasm among voters matter, or does just being registered to vote matter? these are all questions that pollsters wrestle with every day. the fact there's variation is not evidence there's anything rigged about these polls. for the most part, virtually every pollster i've ever dealt
with, they work very, very hard to get it right, not to rig the results, because they're looking for clients in the future who want to get it right. >> that's why we do the poll of polls. if you just saw that graphic we put up there, i think it added up to all the different ranges. almost eight points is what they're saying her rough, rounded score is. >> but the key thing here is that we're talking about a variation in clinton's lead. we're not looking at a range of polls. some show trump up ten, some show clinton up ten. it's either clinton up by a huge margin, clinton up by a small margin, or the race roughly at a dead heat. the dead heat polls are getting fewer and fewer. >> what you're hearing from the trump campaign, though, is they're keeping their fingers crossed for these silent majority of voters who maybe these polls aren't picking up. they're pointing to things -- i i mean, look at mitt romney campaign. their models were wrong going into the final weeks. they're hoping all of the models are wrong and all of these voters that are voting for --
>> well, the campaign is looking at background states. they see different numbers. they're less concerned with the national numbers. >> i think a lot of campaigns are like that. very true. >> they think there are still good signs for trump. go ahead, david. >> so look at that. where is trump spending his time? he's in florida. he's in ohio. he's in north carolina. he's got to play defense. he's way behind in pennsylvania and has been for a long time. but he's got to play defense in north carolina, which went for romney in 2012. apparently pence is traveling out to salt lake city, utah. not traditionally a background state. and by the way, hillary clinton, she's happy to slug it out in north carolina and florida because she could certainly lose florida. she could certainly lose ohio. she's got multiple paths to 270. she's starting to look at how she gets to 330, 350 electoral votes at this point. by the way, the inside the polls, trump's deficiencies with young people, with women, with
voters with college degrees, with minorities, these have been present. these deficiencies have been present since last year. there has not been -- even before the primaries you haven't seen any movement. these are the same problems he had before the primaries. >> okay. so you have a flawed man. you have a flawed candidate. what unites all those people and overrides their feeling about politicians in general is their pocketbooks, their wallets. this obamacare thing will make a difference. people who are paying it and dealing with the exchanges if your state has one knows that this is more expensive -- bill clinton laid it out right. you have this slice of those who are working in small businesses who aren't getting advantage out of obamacare right now. now you hear about the premiums going up 22%. and they believe the good explanation on the left is, well, the subsidies are going to go up, so you won't feel it. that, to many, makes it worse. it's more expensive on both sides. how big could this be? >> i think it's probably going to be a bigger deal for republican senate candidates,
republicans trying to keep control of congress, than it is for donald trump. most of the voters who are rejecting trump are doing so not on the basis of policy but on the basis of character, questions of the national identity. >> you really put a pin in my balloon. >> for another republican candidate, if you imagine a parallel universe where john kasich or marco rubio is the candidate, this would be devastating for hillary clinton. but it's hard to counteract what people think about your character with a policy. >> hold your thoughts. panel, we want to talk to you more. first, the trump campaign is revealing their road to 270 electoral votes. but their map looks nothing like cnn's map. is the path too rosy? the battle of the maps next on "new day."
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and if you have hep c, it can be cured. be sure to ask your doctor to get tested for hep c. for us it's time to get tested. it's the only way to know for sure. all right. we're just two weeks from election day. just 14 days from today. you got early voting already going on in many states. so then comes a memo released by the trump campaign manager giving us an inside look into how they see the electoral map. and it is very different. let's discuss. let's bring back our panel.
let's look at the trump map. here's what they're putting out. the real identifying difference is going to be background states, denoted by yellow on this map. notably, if you look to your left, you'll see those two yellow squares have red in between. that's utah and arizona. everybody else has those as background states. but the headline is there are a lot fewer background states than, say, compared to the cnn map. put up the cnn map. all right. so cnn has there being a lot fewer. >> 4 to 12. >> trump says there's a lot more in play. david gregory, when you look at this map, you know, one of the headlines is they say utah and arizona are very much in it. they say you have 12 states up for grabs as a posed to four that people like cnn are saying. assuming it's just based on quanti quantify kags and calculation, how do you see it? >> i don't see how they get there.
i'm playing around here with my own map. 270 to win. you can give trump florida. you can give him ohio. you can keep north carolina as a toss-up state. you give her pennsylvania, where she's up, way ahead. new hampshire, give her those. keep arizona and utah for trump. i've got her at 278. by the way, she's ahead in florida. she's ahead in north carolina. she's even ahead in ohio. you know, even if you were to take away wisconsin, she's still on the cusp of winning. so there's so many ways for her to win. and she's leading in arizona, which i'm keeping and they're keeping firmly. so some of this is therapy over reality for them. but the reality is even if they're right -- and again, we don't know who comes out to vote. that's why we show up on election day. it still seems very, very narrow for him to get there. >> kellyanne conway is of
courses a esteemed pollster. she's done this for 30 years, as she likes to point out. she says they're deadlocked in north carolina and ohio. so jackie, let me tell you what she says, how their math works. over the past month, polls have shown us winning iowa, ohio, maine, florida, nevada, anne north carolina. if we maintain our leads in those six states, we can reliably claim 266 electoral votes. hillary can claim 193. we'd still have four electoral votes to go. that was in a memo yesterday to donors. that's their latest math. maybe it's pie in the sky, but she's a pollster. she knows how to crunch numbers. >> and her client is donald trump and his donors. so it does seem overly rosy, as we were just discussing. they had michigan in play in that map. they had colorado, which has a high hispanic population, which donald trump has not done well
with. pennsylvania has sort of been a white whale for republicans. there's nothing really that's saying he's doing overwhelmingly well there. >> what they would say, when we talk to them, is that when you drive around some places in pennsylvania, you see trump/pence, trump/pence. >> yard signs don't vote. >> but they do show enthusiasm. >> sure. but you know, it's someone's job to put yard signs out. if it's places where you don't usually see them -- i was talking to a republican yesterday who said this. if you're seeing yard signs, let's say, in old town alexandria, which is right outside d.c., tends to be a liberal area, then it's like, hmmm. but you're not really seeing that. crowds don't vote. when you see big crowds at rallies, for example, that doesn't necessarily mean -- it could show enthusiasm, but it could just be people coming out to a rally. all that matters is election day and these early voting numbers
we're seeing. >> who comes out on election day is so important. this is why this get out the vote effort is so important. even the model in 2012 showed something. then obama voters simply overwhelmed at the polls. that's why this question of is the race over. >> that ties into the signs. i've said this for a while now. i've been around this a very long time, but i'm no pollster. i don't see the confidence that clinton gets the turnout that obama did and alleviates this disconnect with the signs versus the voters. but that's why we do show up on election day. >> look, i think that the presence of trump yard signs, the size and nature of trump's crowds, this tells you something important about the nature of his support and the kind of campaign he has run and the degree to which wearing a trump sticker s eer is sort of a cult signifier. you talk to republicans outside the trump campaign who see their own internal polling and even
some of the trump internal polling. that map that the trump campaign put out is not what the republican party sees. >> we'll put it as ambitious. another thing that goes along with an earmark of the enthusiasm of the trump campaign are mean tweets. that's not a segue. that's real. mean tweets are a big part of what comes along with the trump campaign. we had president obama on jimmy kimmel live last night reading some of the mean tweets to him. priceless. here it is. >> my mom bought new conditioner, and it sucks, it isn't even conditioning my hair. i blame obama. barack obama, bro, do you even lift? well, i lifted the ban on cuban cigars. that's worth something. president obama will go down as perhaps the worst president in the history of the united states! @realdonaldtrump. @realdonaldtrump, at least i
will go down as a president. >> oh, he dropped the phone. >> david gregory, how do you rate the humor? >> you know, it's funny. in an interview with doris kerns goodwin, that's something barack obama was proud of, that he's had this range to do everything from slow jamming jimmy fallon or being with kimmel and reading tweets. he's had some game in that respect. look, when you're a popular president, as he is, in terms of approval rating, you're a pretty effective surrogate. right now he's microtargeting these groups they want to show up. he's doing his best, cuomo, to make sure that, that obama coalition comes out in 2012. he's made it very clear it's his legacy on the line too. >> he's right to a certain extent. if he wants to read more mean tweets about him, i got much better ones than the ones he read. i got worse ones about my mom. all right. thank you very much, panel. appreciate it.
>> that's horrible. >> she is not just a mom. she happens to be the first mom to also run a republican presidential campaign. what is it like being donald trump's cleanup person all the time? kellyanne conway, you've gotten top know her through this campaign, but she's much more than what you think. ahead on "new day." ♪ prepare for challenges specific to your business by working with trusted advisors who help turn obstacles into opportunities. experience the power of being understood. rsm. audit, tax and consulting for the middle market.
time now for the five things to know for your new day. a new cnn/orc national poll shows hillary clinton leading donald trump by five points, 49% to 44%, with just two weeks until election day. trump dismisses those polls as rigged. he says he is actually winning. obamacare premiums are set to rise an average of more than 20% in 2017. trump declaring, quote, it's over, for the president's signature plan. supporters say most customers can offset the hikes using federal subsidies. at least 60 people killed and more than a hundred injured in a militant attack on a police training academy in western pakistan. three suicide bombers invaded the academy and took hostages. two of the terrorists blew themselves up. security forces killed the third. pentagon officials are now
exploring steps to waive debt imposed on more than 10,000 soldiers by california national guard officials. a probe found unknowing veterans were given fraudulent hefty bonuses to re-enlist a decade ago in order to mete the enlistment targets. >> we were talking about that later. prince's paisley park compound is now a museum. city council in minnesota voting unanimously to rezone the late music superstar's home and studio. the paisley park website says it's permanently open for public tours. >> very cool. he would like that. >> i would love to see the inside of that. for more, go to newdaycnn.com for the latest. all right. so she's the guiding force behind the trump campaign. she's one heck of a spin meister. but she's also a mom. she's got four kids. and she's keeping the republican nominee on track and her family too. who are we talking about? >> people will seriously say, can't you delete his twitter app? >> that was one of my questions. >> of course. it's not for me to take away a grown man's twitter account. >> kellyanne conway is the real deal, not just because of what
all right. you know her as donald trump's campaign manager, but she's a lot more than just her job. we wanted to take a look inside kellyanne conway's life. what is it like being the first woman to manage a gop nominee's presidential campaign while also juggling a big business and a very, very important family? cnn's political correspondent dana bash has the story. great one. >> you know, she does it the way every single working parent does, with a lot of help. you know, she's such a staple of 2016 television coverage. she's on every time pretty much you turn on the tv. people are kind of obama succse. what does she really think? does she really believe all the things she says? she invited us to her home in new jersey to ask her. >> reporter: morning at the conways. >> sweetheart, how's this?
and which jacket? >> reporter: scrambling to get the kids ready for school. familiar chaos for any parent, though kellyanne conway is not any parent. >> kellyanne conway bluntly acknowledging the uphill climb. >> reporter: the mother of four young children is donald trump's campaign manager. on tv so much explaining and defending her boss, saturday night live dedicated an entire bit to imagining her day off. >> this is so weird. this is exactly the way the "snl" house looked. where's "walking on sunshine"? >> in my head. >> reporter: these days her mother, who moved in to help, makes the pancakes. conway's only been on the job since august. trump's third campaign manager but the first woman ever to run a gop presidential race. >> i wasn't hired because of my gender. but it's a special responsibility. >> reporter: and often a difficult one, like this weekend when trump went off script, attacking the women who say he groped them.
>> all of these liars will be sued after the election is over. >> do you just tear your hair out? >> it's his campaign and his candidacy. in the end, he has to be comfortable with his voice and his choice. >> but you're the campaign manager. are you comfortable with that? >> i think donald trump is at his very best when he talking about the issues. >> reporter: translation, going off message hurts his campaign. conway insists she's tough on trump in private. >> i don't sugar coat it at all. >> so give me an example. i'm donald trump and you're kellyanne conway and i say something that really makes you mad. >> i told him yesterday on the plane, you and i are going to fight for the next 17 days. he said why? i said, because i know you're going to win. that comment you just made sounds like you think you're going to lose. and we're going to argue about it until you win. >> and what's his response? >> he's like, okay, honey, then we'll win. >> reporter: for a trump when conway took over, trump was disciplined, but not anymore.
especially on twitter. >> people will say, can't you delete his twitter app? >> that was actually one of my questions. >> of course. it's not for me to take away a grown man's twitter account. >> i moved on her very heavily. >> reporter: when tape from 2005 came out of trump describing lewd behavior, conway canceled sunday tv appearances but still helped with damage control. >> i felt like rapunzel in the tower all weekend. i told mr. trump in private what i've also said in public or a variation thereof. i found the comments to be horrible and indefensible. he didn't ask anybody to defend them, by the way. >> did you consider quitting? >> i did not. >> reporter: she says she thought his apology was earnest. >> the women who have now come forward and said it's not just talk, donald trump groped me, do you believe them? >> i believe -- donald trump has told me and his family and the rest of america now that none of this is true, these are lies and fabrications, they're all made up, and i think that it's not
for me to judge what those women believe. i've not talked to them. i've talked to him. >> reporter: she was raised in new jersey by a single mom, aunts, and grandmother, all women. as a political pollster, she chose to work in what she calls a man's world, especially as a republican. she recalled a potential client, a man, asking how she'd balance kids and work. >> it's like, i just hope you ask all the male consultants, are you going to give up your wicked golf game and your mistresses? because they seem really, really busy too. >> reporter: still, like most working moms, time with her kids is precious. the question is whether she'll have more time in two weeks after election day. when she was hired in august, she told trump he was losing but could still win. >> you think at this point it is still possible to win? >> it is still possible to win. >> probable? >> i think that we have got a very good chance of winning. >> dana, fascinating. fascinating to get a window into
her world. you know, we only know her as the woman who comes in and speaks on behalf of donald trump. so it's great to see her with her kids. because she has been so vocal about outreach to women, how does she explain that trump isn't doing better with women? >> it's hard. i mean, it's hard because it's not just about outreach to women now. it's been a big part of her business at the polling company, which is her business when she's not running a campaign, to explain to politicians and to corporate executives, this is what the data shows, this is how you reach out to women. when donald trump is your candidate, it's just pretty hard to translate that and to make that come to fruition. >> that's a big part of the i o dynamic here. people will say after this, where's the profile on robby mook now? this is a different job. we've known kellyanne than many of us would like to remember. it's not just being the first woman. that's important, but as she said, she's made it through this
business, gender be damned, for a long time, and she's done very well. this is a different job. we've never seen anybody try to deal with a candidate like this. he makes, you know, jimmy "rent too damn high" here in new york look like al gore. this is a tough job for her. >> it is. when your job is messaging, and you even heard her in the piece saying he's best when he stays on the issues. that's her saying, you know, i really, really wish my candidate would not be talking about suing the women who are accusing him. because no one was talking about that for several days. now they are because he brought it up, not because they did. >> dana, great piece. thanks so much for showing it to us. >> thank you. well, the chicago cubs or the cleveland indianas? that, i ask. one of them is about to end a historic world series drought. the bleacher report is next.
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lebron and the cavs won the nba title back in june. now, the players going through one last workout yesterday before they hit the field for game one. the ticket prices for this world series, astronomical. the cheapest ticket for tonight, around $750. for game three at wrigley field, the cheapest ticket, around $2,000. we talked to a burnch of player and fans from both sides yesterday. they're all well aware how special this world series is. >> cubs nation, all around the world, all around the country, they're there. they're behind us. and we're ready to give them something special. >> i think it's going to be a special world series. obviously there's two droughts. so i mean, there's going to be a winner. >> i never thought this would happen. it's great for the city. >> i haven't seen this. my father, grandfather, great grandfather. so here we are. you know, we just drove in from chicago. we have tickets for the first two games. we're looking to bring it home to chicago. we're excited.
>> reporter: it was the brock osweiler bowl on monday. facing his former team for the first time. rough night for old brock. he was pretty terrible. the texans don't even score a touchdown. broncos win that one by a final 27-9. i'll tell you what, it's going to be an incredible sports night here in cleveland. just on the other side of progressive field, quicken loans arena, the cavs are going to get their championship rings before their game in the season opener against the knicks. our friends from inside the nba going to be broadcasting that game on tnt. i'll tell you what, alisyn. lebron was asked what could make this night better for the city of cleveland. he said, i don't know, maybe ice cream for everyone. you know what? blue bunny ice cream said, deal. they're going to have ice cream trucks out here tonight giving away free ice cream. so you got the world series, cavs getting the rings, and free ice cream for everyone. i don't know what more you could ask for. >> i don't either. why haven't the presidential can dat candidates thought of that? >> you know what they have going on we haven't seen in the
election? unity. lebron and the cavs have been going to the baseball games. the whole city has come together. unity can do great things. >> a lot of lessons to be learned from free ice cream. we're two weeks away from election day, but already millions of americans have cast their vote. so which way are they leaning? we try to figure that out next. lyou gotta make a truck heavier to make it stronger, has been workin' too long without a hard hat. meet the all-new 2017 ford super duty. they cut weight with a high-strength, military grade, aluminum alloy body and reinvested a big chunk of it to beef up the high-strength steel frame. forging the most capable heavy-duty pickup in america. time to punch work in the face. this is the next level. this is the all-new ford super duty.
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job. >> i know. and some lake-effect snow for the first time around the great lakes. way below average, way below normal for the great lakes, new york, new jersey, all the way through there. this is going to be the first really big shot of cold air of the season. i think how quickly we got here is really the bigger story because all the northeast cities were in the 80s last week. the high this week in new york will be only in the 50s. boston only in the 40s. the morning lows, like you said, will be somewhere down in the neighborhood of about 35 to 40. upstate new york will be without a doubt in that 32-degree range. so where and how did we get here? last week we were 85. that's the same temperature as labor day. that's the same temperature as the fourth of july. tomorrow we will be the same temperature as thanksgiving. we've gone from one vacation to another, but unfortunately the fourth of july to thanksgiving seems to happen pretty quick. seven days, alisyn. >> that's much quicker than
usual. you're right, chad. thanks so much for putting it in those terms. so we're two weeks a i wwaym election day, but early voting is well under way. so which party is getting more of the vote? let's discuss with cnn editor mark preston. let's look at the early data. 5.1 million votes have been cast in 35 states. those numbers are going to change in a couple hours. so far there's no way to tell how it's going, right? >> no, what we can tell is the demographic of the voter and the party registration of the voter. >> okay. let's look at some of that. we know that 1.4 million basically, democrats, have already voted. 1.1 republicamillion republican. but they might have crossed party lines. >> particularly in this election where donald trump has been able
to draw some democrats to his side. >> let's look at florida. here's what we know about what's going on in florida. for comparison, let's look at 2008. half a million people voted early that year. look at these spread. many more republicans. this year a million people have already voted. and it's half and half. >> a couple things about this. the republican party has had a historic advantage when it comes to mail-in votes. florida, big military state. military tends to be more republican. you have people serving overseas, serving in other parts of the country prip what democrats will tell you is they are seeing historic numbers increase. for instance, 133,000 la ttinos voted so far, which is a 99% increase from 2012. they say absentee ballots among african-americans is up 30%. >> interesting. let's look at another all-important state of ohio. so back then, at least as of this hour, more people were voting early.
half a million in 2008. versus now there's 368,000. evenly split at the moment. >> this is why you have to be careful about these early numbers. you can glean some information. if you were to look at the polls of ohio, it shows hillary clinton is having a problem with white, noncollege educated voters, which are a big voting bloc there in ohio. that's why donald trump is doing so well. even though democrats have a bit of an advantage, trump is still doing better in ohio. >> so let's look at the ground game. this is interesting to see who has more staff on the ground. there's a big discrepancy. look at how many more people hillary clinton has on the ground. look at pennsylvania. you can see she's like quadrupling him in every state. >> two quick points on this. republicans will say they've been in these states longer because the rnc started building a ground game back in 2013. however, when you come into a
presidential election year, you're taking the campaign and the national party. donald trump never had any kind of ground game with his operation. there's no merging. democrats on the other hand had the hillary clinton operation and the dnc operation. that's why you're seeing more numbers here. quite frankly, what you're seeing in this early voting right now, you're looking for low propensity voters. these are folks who might have voted in 2012. you need to get them out to the polls now because your reliable voters are still going to show up on tuesday. >> is what we're seeing here the illustration of what the trump campaign has always said, which is we have a lot of enthusiasm, we're just banking on the enthusiasm that we see. people will stand in the cold for four hours to come to one of our rallies. surely they'll come out and vote. >> which caught a lot of us by surprise in the republican primaries. we thought we would see the enthusiasm at the rallies but not actually show up on election day. we did see that for donald trump. however, this is a different election. it's a different type of voter. and the fact of the matter is he would have been much better off had they had a stronger ground
game. democrats clearly have an edge right now. >> what does it take to get people to the polls on election day? what are these people going to be doing on election day to drive people to the polls? >> well, even this morning they're going to be making telephone calls, doing mailers on weekends. these are the people if you live in these background states knocking on your door. who are you going to vote for? do you need help, for the elderly. they try to get them rides with vans. i remember in 2008, hillary clinton's campaign in iowa during the caucuses went out and bought snow shovels. it was a symbolic idea, but the idea was we're going to shovel you all the way. >> and did they do it? did they actually shovel? >> they did, but remember who won in 2008. barack obama won the iowa caucuses. >> there you go. good lesson there somehow. thanks so much, mark preston. thanks for walking us through all this. we're following a lot of news this morning. let's get right to it. just in case you haven't heard, we're winning. it's over for obamacare.
hillary clinton wants to double down and make it more expensive. >> he's been denigrating america for decades. >> i will cancel every illegal obama executive order. >> we haven't seen before is somebody questioning the integrity of elections. >> the media isn't just against me, they're against all of you. >> we nasty women are going to cast our nasty votes to get you out of our lives forever. this is "new day" with chris cuomo and alisyn camerota. >> good morning. welcome to your "new day." two weeks from today we'll have a new president elect. a new cnn/orc poll shows that hillary clinton has a five-point lead over donald trump, 49 to 44. trump's reaction to the polls, a reflection of why he's down. he says the polls are rigged by a rigged media. note, he could not talk about polls enough when was up. >> meanwhile, clinton is facing