tv Smerconish CNN November 5, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm PDT
smerconish in washington with "smerconish" which begins right now. >> i'm michael smerconish with special preelection coverage with a new leader in just three days. viewers across america and around the world. a whopping 40 million early votes already in. there have been long lines at polls and swing states like north carolina. what can we learn from those who have already voted and on tuesday night, we'll have a winner and loser. both camps will have their parties in midtown manhattan, only a mile and a half apart. i wonder if each is preparing two speeches and what else besides the senate, president and congress is up for grabs? how about pot, the death
penalty, even condoms for porn stars? all decided on tuesdays and you watched us for a dozen or so election nights, we spent two full weeks for the conventions this cleveland and in philadelphia. we covered all four debates together. finally now, nia malik henderson, gloria borger and david axelrod with me on my program. but first, i said something earlier today that provoked a strong reaction. my view hasn't changed. in fact, i think it needs to be said again. elections used to be an end point. one celebrated, another licked wounds and people moved forward. we live in polarized times with many causes and well known milestones. what among them was eight years ago when at the time, president obama's inauguration was taking place, senator mitch mcconnell, now the majority leader, implored his fellow republicans, the single most important thing that we want to achieve is for
president obama to be a one-term president, unquote. partisan competition, that's healthy. democracy depends upon it. but this ushered in an ugly era of vitriol and obstructionism that went far beyond trying to defeat someone at the ballot box and now even before this election has ended, there are troubling signs that things are about to get even worse. paul waldman summarized in yesterday's "washington post" including that a difference of opinion within the fbi and justice department may have grown so bitter that federal agents willing to leak information to the press to try to undermine clinton's campaigns in the final days. also, the e-mail case has not been, quote unquote, reopened by the fbi as mischaracterized by some politicians and media outlets and that's not stopping some republicans from already calling for her impeachment should she be elected. we have many ignoring that a presumed foreign hostile actor hacked american computer systems
in an effort to influence our election so as long as the foils suit their political objectives and we haven't had nine justices since the passing of antonin scalia but gop leaders rather leave the seat vacant than a seat to a clinton pick. each of these go beyond election hyperbole and we need to stop this. the nation cannot afford more disharmony. let's finish this fair and square and embrace president trump or president clinton and move forward in the name of national unity. i've said before for far too long, the largest number of us allowed our views to be muted by the loudest voices. it's important we not let them take us down that road for the next four years. hopefully the candidates provide leadership regardless of which is the victor. and with three days left, everyone growing anxious. who will achieve 270?
here's what it looks like in the latest cnn electoral map. hillary clinton two shy and donald trump at 204 with 66 up for grabs with 40 million people voting early. as of this most recent tally, what are the early voting numbers telling us about the state of the race? joining me now is michael mcdonald the founder of the elections project an associate professor at the university of florida. he's an expert in early voting. 40 million sounds huge. how does it compare to this stage in 2012? >> it's even bigger in a lot of states after that have early voting. so in some states like nevada and colorado, we've already seen maybe 75% of the vote already been cast in those states. we've seen 26 states across the country break their 2012 records on early voting. people are out there. they're voting and it's going to make a difference, of course, in the election. >> professor, does early voting necessarily mean more voting is this when all is said and done because we've opened the polls
sooner, do more go and exercise the fran economize? franchise? >> i think it's a small effect on overall turnout and record numbers in many states that probably means, yes, there's some people will vote on election day, voted early but also probably means election day turnout will be up as well. >> one more general question and then talk specific data. does one party seem to benefit more than the other from this trend toward early voting? >> it's the campaign that's organized that can take advantage of the extended campaign period. that's the campaign that can take advantage of early voting and there's clearly one campaign that has a better organization than the other when it comes to mobilizing their voters. >> secretary clinton, i take it. >> absolutely. >> read me the tea leaves. talk about the battleground states. >> let's start with the cnn map. you had nevada shaded as a yellow state, the toss-up state. that's not what it looks like from the early voting. 75% of the vote is already in. democrats have a lead of about 6
percentage points and that's about the same in 2012 when he won the state by 7 percentage points. most likely then as we look at those numbers, it seems like clinton is very well positioned to take nevada. another very good state for clinton as well at this point in time at the moment, colorado. over 1.5 million votes in, again, close to 75% of the votes that are going to be cast in the state and we see the democrats are the one percentage point advantage. and in colorado, they changed their laws so we don't have a good baseline from previous elections. we have to look back to 2014, the first election under this system. the republicans had a 7 point advantage in party registration and they split the the governor and senate race in that election by narrow margins so i think the republicans need about 7 percentage points. >> so so far, it sounds like it's going well for secretary clinton. if i'm donald trump, what can i look at that map and be optimistic about? >> if we start we states good
for clinton, some states good for donald trump. persistent weakness in the midwest and polling numbers for clinton also showing up in the early vote so places like iowa and ohio with good baseline data to look back in time, we can see this that explains, i think in part, why we see tight poll numbers in iowa and ohio. i think iowa is probably the best whether you state that trump has to flip to the republican column in this election. two other states, it's going to be really close in. north carolina and florida. a lot of things have changed there. and the laws have changed and the way in which people are voting have changed and looking at the sum of the data, i just think those states will come down to the wire. >> so you're not able looking at north carolina or florida and because florida in particular we keep reporting has had a huge turnout but your home state to draw any significant finding from either of those. >> it just looks very close and the democrats with a slight
advantage in early vote in 2012. that's going to be narrower this time around. but we've also probably at the end of the day have 2.5 million more people vote early in flori florida. that's a lot to do with changes of laws. we converted some election day voters to early voters and republicans do very well. so some of those voters are now voting early, that's why the democratic margin is narrower. >> one other aspect of this. it's an unusual cycle. talk about strange bedfellows. it plays out every day of the campaign. how many republicans voted thus far? how many democrats come this far? but we should not fall into the trap of believing and therefore voting for her and this group is voting for him. >> absolutely. we're just looking at the polls. we know that a registered democrat is likely to vote for clinton. a registered republican likely to vote for trump. some idea about the past they've broken for democrats. may be different this time around but the polling and other
demographics from these people, we suspect to break towards the democrats. we're not going to know until the election officials open up the envelopes and start counting the votes how the theelection w play out. >> having said that with the caveats, now the saturday night before the tuesday election finale. professor michael mcdonald, if you had to be one of them electorally speaking based on this information, wold you rather be? >> clinton. if we put nevada and colorado and i think a state like virginia on your map as well, then donald trump's got to run every battle ground state and he's got to pick up a blue leaning state to win the electoral college. it's a very difficult task. he's got to follow that inside strait in order to win the election. >> thank you for being here. this is your niche. you've owned this for this election cycle. i'm thrilled to have you here tonight. >> my pleasure. >> professor michael mcdonald.
to discuss this and more, i invited my cnn compatriots. we share debates and conventions and caucuses, and finally, it took a lot to get the three of you here. >> behalf of my colleagues, so gratified you finally got us here. we've been talking about this. social calendar. >> but you're on my turf here. and this is the view i have. >> it used to be yours. it's more complicated, right, than just bringing out ours and bringing out, because if you're the trump campaign, you could bring out some suburbans. >> i think it's interesting because the trump organization has no real get out the vote operation. they're depending on the republican party and the republican party as we've heard for sean spicer has an analytics operation but not geared towards trump voters.
they'll be pulling out trump voters in the main but a precise exercise for them. the clinton camp have been profiling voters and developing a model of the clinton voter for a year and a half. and this is all for this, to try to eke out a point or two difference in some of these close battleground states. >> i think you'd almost rather know the gender, maybe the ethnicity. and how about this, the education? >> that is all about what the clinton coalition looks like. they think the clinton coalition is basically college educated whites, particularly college educated white women. latinos, millennials and african-americans. and some of the data, you can see some of the data in terms of african-americans voting in north carolina. it seems to be softer than it was last go-around and has to do with probably fewer polling stations increasingly coming online and then in florida, i talked to some democrats.
they feel really good about the early voting numbers among latinos. this could be a real record year in terms of that turnout with latinos. >> here's the interesting thing for the republican national committee and they've done a fabulous job over the last tour years with the clock cleaned on the data analytics and very much up to speed. but they have a sofie's choice sometimes because if you're in the state of florida for example and want to get out trump voters, those voters may not necessarily match with marco rubio voters. marco rubio voters may decide to split their ticket and may decide, okay, i'll go for rubio but i'm also going to go for hillary clinton or certainly not going to go for donald trump so while they are getting out that vote, you haven't seen this unity the way you have on the democratic side with all the senate candidates out there. they presume it's just a straight lever and that you go down the line. that is not the case in the republican party right now which makes the get out the vote
effort a lot more complicated. >> david, you remember the autopsy from the last cycle. you wonder how many of those lessons have yet to be grasped? >> i think the republican national committee grasped those but did the leader, i think the answer is no. the conclusions of the autopsy of the last campaign was to do better with hispanics and women. it's not good. that's why you see some of these numbers in florida, for example, we've discussed this. there's been a real burst of hispanic registration in voting. a lot of those registrants have no party affiliation so democrats are looking at those non-party, which is up 3%, non-party affiliated voters as part of the whole and they're thinking, that's good news for us because a lot of these are hispanic voters. not coming out to vote for donald trump. >> i think the other hear of the
2012 campaign was 6 million white voters stayed home, right? and that seems to be the play that donald trump is making, he can make the electorate look a little different, a little whiter and we'll see what happens. >> the registration, nothing to suggest a big tlood. flood. >> they are banking on the fact that there's a hidden electorate. >> let me posit something to the group. is it possible there's a hidden clinton vote and we're looking at this the wrong way? >> i think you're right. >> the republican areas in pennsylvania and in the suburbs of milwaukee and so on, it seems to me, it's harder to declare yourself a hillary clinton voter in some of those areas than it is to declare yourself a trump voter. >> curtains on ballot booths, right? >> it's back together.
>> nia malia henderson. they'll stick around for the entire special hour. coming up next, like van hey al the hula hoop, lead in california. will the ballot issues do the same? condoms for porn stars? banning the death penalty? tweet me at @smerconish during the course of the program. >> i hate you but i love you. mostly love except for the hating. i think i'll take it. i don't know what to make of that. >> that sounded like your wife was reading.
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timely since both candidates are 69 and 70 and not a lot of talk about their ages. wider use of recreational marijuana and california requiring porn actors to use condoms. joining me now, christina belintoni who writes the daily newsletter called "essential politics," terrific. 17 different ballot initiatives. it's going to take a while for voters to just wade through the ballot. >> the voter guide was 227 pages. weighed almost a pound. this is a major ballot. it's based in part because to get a ballot measure, you have to collect signatures and the number you have to collect was lower because turnout was so low in the last election statewide. >> we could be here a while tuesday night waiting for california because of the time it will take folks to vote. recreational pot, i think many surprised to know california
doesn't yet have this. it seems likely to pass, right? >> yeah, in fact, california has rejected it before. our poll we just took this week showing overwhelmingly favored to passed. 58% said they would vote for it. led mostly among younger voters but across all barriers and demographics and for many people, not about, now i can go smoke pot. it's an economic argument but able to tax and regulate it. >> revenue, sure. >> so recreational use. it will be legal at midnight. >> the number of states who look for that party midnight tuesday. and california, interestingly, one ballot initiative saying let's speed up the appellate process and keep it and another to get rid of it. how do you think that's going to go? >> it looks like both will fail. we've done a lot of explorations
of constitutional issues if one pass, one fails, what happens if they both pass but the first would effectively replace with life without parole. one of the most costly things in california is keeping people on death row and the system is really flawed but there's just not enough support of it because so many people have deeply held values when it comes to this. at the same time, the criminal justice system, people don't have much faith in it. so the speeding up executions, less support and looks like it will not pass but it's a complicated question and you see a lot being weighed on it. >> the condom initiative. no pun intended, is that all about jobs? i understand the democratic and republican party united against it? >> there's a lot of debate on this. los angeles county in 2012 made this a requirement that you would have to wear a condom in an adult film and there's some other regulations on it.
prooppone p proponents say it's safer for the system but what we saw pornography makers left los angeles county. they just went to the next door county because for them, it was less of an issue and really inhibits their business. so the big fear from a lot of businesses and parties is you see the porn industry leave california entirely. so it's got a lot of opposition. it is favored to pass but maybe close. we'll watch very closely on election night to see what happens because the economic arguments, fairly strong out there. a lot of editorial boards that have come out against it saying it's pretty infringing on free speech effectively but at the same time, seems logical and we preach safe sex in other circumstances so why not in an industry where sex is the business? >> not all the fun is in california. maine has a ballot question that could bring ranked voting, much like they used in the oscars,
the academy awards. say something about that. >> it's effectively an substantiate runo instant runoff. the candidate who comes in fifth would drop off and anyone else who has that candidate as the first choice would automatically go down to the second choice and become the first choice. it's the instant runoff system and a lot of opposition people saying it's susceptible to hacking and isn't fair but in particular, in maine, this is an important issue because you've seen three major candidates on a ballot for two governors races in a row that ended up with paula page even though he wasn't supported by the majority but had the most because the independent candidate split the democratic vote there. it will be interesting if that passes. it could change that in many states and the top two primary system voters approved several years ago and made a difference
in the way we conduct elections. >> christina, final word. i find it interesting two sta s states, pennsylvania being one of them, how old if any age is too old for a judge and yet we really haven't had a conversation about the relative ages of these two candidates. you get the final word on that. >> right, so kind of different. they're trying to repeal a limit that says you can't be a judge after 75. there were two candidates who applied and were rejected to run because they were going to be older than 75. in pennsylvania, the question is, should they raise the age from 70 to 75? so effectively, giving people five more years. so, you know, it's interesting because certainly if you have a fit mind, maybe you should. the retirement in this age is a standard for some medical benefits and social security benefits but people are all over the map and we live much longer these days. i'll be curious if either of those passes. >> christina belentony from the
l.a. times. thank you for being here. >> good luck on election day. >> you too. we survived primaries, caucus, four debates. we staggered to the finish line. >> i want to go back with david axelrod, nia malik henderson gloria borger. help me with these tweets. so upsetting. cnn is trying to help trump win. i'm going to stop watching. i hope other dems will stop watching. dp consulting sends me this note every week and keeps watching. take them any way we can get them. here?
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for about a dozen election nights, two full weeks of convention coverage in cleveland and in philadelphia and all four debates including the vp debate. i have had the privilege of association with three real professionals. nia malik henderson, gloria borger and david axelrod with anderson cooper tomorrow and frankly, i think beyond wednesday night. >> is that what you're hearing? they don't tell me my schedule. >> when you write your memoir. gloria, when you write yours and think of this cycle, i think of that cd vegas hotel, the unlv crowd with the guy with the bull horn, the mega postpone, i think about donald trump never coming on my show but constantly tweeting about my content proving he watches. what are you thinking about and
remembering? >> for the four of us, i'm thinking about all the twiz lzls we get under the table, all the sugar. >> asked my doctor about that. >> i know, sorry. to keep ourselves up and about how wrong we were. i go back to last july when donald trump said john mccain said, he wasn't a war hero. he's done. how wrong were we all and we didn't see that something very different was happening and then i fast forward to may when reince priebus declared the campaign over. cruz pulled out after indiana. suddenly, we didn't anticipate it. what an evening that was and reince priebus said we now have a presumptive nominee in a flash. so what a year. >> bernie sanders, again, somebody we were wrong about and completely underestimated him
and here he was beginning in that summer last summer, drawing those huge crowds, all over the country. and then giving hillary clinton a real battle throughout this campaign, the fight over debates. they didn't have enough debates. put more debates on the calendar. i also think about just the people we meet along the way, the conventions, different rallies. we think, people don't like these candidates but millions and millions of people who love these candidates and attached to these campaigns and seeing those girls at the convention really look and see history with hillary clinton and then those folks at the trump convention who haven't necessarily been a part of politics and there they were saying donald trump make his own kind of history. >> david axelrod is like? >> smerconish. >> i didn't think so. behind the mask. >> but look, both of you are
touching on something we're going to have to spend a lot of time thinking about after this election. the fact is that we are a deeply divided country in our politics and many people in the media live in one part of america and many people who are voting live in another part of america and the fact is i was as sure as everyone else that trump would flame out when he was speaking to something out there that was real and we need to do soul searching about that and how the future campaigns are covered and how we cover the events of the next few years. >> i think so too and i remember going to trump rallies in iowa for example and these were people i would have seen at any republican rally. they were just tired of the establishment. they're not any kind of voter you could caricature one way or another but wanted an outsider and what i learned is they were as mad as republicans as they were at democrats. >> that's an interesting point
here. you see two incumbent senators in trouble right now. and they win but bur in north carolina, blunt in missouri. why is blunt in trouble this a state where donald trump is going to win perhaps easily? it's because he is so thoroughly identified with the establishment. his family are lobbyists, identified with the establishment. the same mood that has lifted donald trump in this election is menacing him in lanatlanta. >> i think as we look towards tuesday, margin will matter. the democratic party i doubt will have significant change but it's going to determine a great, if trump wins, it's his gop. if he loses by a little, i don't know what the lesson is. >> you talk to republicans and what they'll tell you is they're of mixed minds. republicans who don't support trump more of the center right, more established variety, they say, look, the best thing for
the party would be a blowout because it would resolve the issue but then lose the senate for sure so they're conflicted as to what to do and hoping for. >> if you look at his prospects here, he could very well do better than mitt romney. it certainly looks like he might win ohio, iowa, states that mitt romney didn't win. and better on the electoral college. >> win or lose, donald trump is a huge factor in the republican party but get ready for the democratic civil war one way or another. >> it will be interesting. >> gloria, david, nia, stick around. not letting you go yet. i want you to talk about election day antics because with so many fears of voter suppression and ballot rigging, i went back to the site of infamy on election day 2008 in philadelphia where members of the new black panltethers allegy
intimidated voters. what's the truth? my report is next. check this out, guys. happy the band is back together again. your combined analysis is a must-see. i feel like led zeppelin has got back for one more. i like the name, just so it's not carlos danger. real milk has eight times more protein than almond milk. real milk has naturally occurring calcium, but almond milk doesn't. oh, and now real milk's got as many almonds as almond milk. almond milk has only 2% almonds. what's in the other 98%?
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what comes to mind? your next getaway? connecting with family and friends? a big night out? or maybe your everyday shopping. whatever it is, aarp member advantages can help save you time and money along the way. so when you get there, you can enjoy it all the more. for less. surround yourself with savings at aarpadvantages.com both parties have been complaining that this election will be rigged through voter suppression, intimidation and down right deception as when voters were told they could vote by text message, they can't. people will watch polling places closely particularly in cities like my hometown of philadelphia but some of the rumors of intimidation can be traced back to a viral video of an incident there in 2008 that election day.
it's been widely misrepresented so i went back to the site and filed this report. this is 1221 feairmount in the city of philadelphia known as gild house west and if it looks familiar, that's because of an incident that took place right here on election day 2008. john mccain against barack obama. >> the philly club right here. >> video recorded here by a poll watcher went viral and since been associated with voter intimidation. but that's not the full story. >> and he was not a police officer. he was not proper security. he was a member of the new black panther party. >> that was november 4, 2008, to be exact. stephen morris, then a university of pennsylvania student, was vert ifcertified a republican poll watcher and taped the peaceful.
>> complete and utter outliers and people like that will exist in the united states and around the world but what were they doing there? i have no idea. >> others thought they knew. at 12:41 p.m. eastern time that day, the drudge reports top linked headline was, black panthers block access to voting station. drudge kept posting on the story even adding footage throughout the day. but here's what really happened. the man with the night stick was asked by police to leave. he did without incident. the other man, well, he was a certified poll watcher. he got to stay. the district attorney's office says there were no complaints of intimidation. nevertheless, this incident has been a rallying cry for those who claim elections continue to be stolen in part due to voter intimidation. donald trump has repeatedly claimed the election is rigged, particularly in cities like philadelphia. >> i hear these horror shows and
we have to make sure that this election is not stolen from us. >> the video viewed more than 2 million times on youtube called the holy grail of republican suspicions about voter fraud here. david thorneburg the chief executive of the non-partisan watchdog group the son of a former republican governor and u.s. attorney general, richard thorneburg. what are the relevant registration numbers for this polling location? >> i think the numbers demonstrate what was reported to be happening here was not in fact happening here. first of all, in this ward of which this is one small piece, democrats outnumber republicans 20-1. >> in fact, the 14th ward division did go 596-13. it wasn't because they were scared away.
most in the fourth division are african-americans and registered democrats who outnumber registered republicans 5040 to 276. case in point, al talbenburger a city councilman. how did you go do? >> three votes of about 500 cast. >> because of that incident, he's opted out of poll watching. however, he still marvels at the power of the 81 seconds he recorded. >> this video is a republican anthem for the past eight years. whenever there's a racial problem, they broadcast this video. if i had a dollar for every time, i'd be a rich man right now. >> what morrse believes is the kind of fraud going on here would be nearly impossible to
pull off. >> in the context of this general election, very much a rarity. not the kind of thing you see every day or i don't think anyone has seen in america since then. >> what happened on november 4, 2008, in philadelphia was a bizarre incident but it wasn't a part of any widespread voter intimidation. my point is a couple of knuckle heads here wanted their 15 minutes of fame and got it but if they wanted to intimidate them, they would have gone to my neighborhood and not that polling place. be careful of things that go viral on tuesday. >> and, you know, we all have to be careful about that because that will occur. i mean, we know that. as sure as we're sitting here, people are on the lookout for this and people should be on the lookout for voter intimidation and any kind of voter suppression at all but you can't overread things that aren't happening and it's very easy for something to be on twitter or
on, you know, any web site and it can go viral and it can affect people as they go out there. >> so words matter tuesday night. >> yes. >> what they say, it will be here, it will be at 11:00 tuesday night in the east or midnight. but what each says will set the tone. >> donald trump has been overt saying he's worried about, as he did there, the election being stolen and he's encouraged, essentially, vigilanteism among his supporters, maybe that's a little harsh but to go to polling places and try to guarantee that voters can vote and so on and if people become self-appointed and deputize themselves in that way, it can create really, really unfortunate situations. so one hopes that cooler heads will prevail here. >> i mean, from what i've heard, most of the people, their concern is not intimidation but the long lines. are they going to find parking?
are they going to have to stand in line for three hours to cast their ballots? but i mean, i'm really glad you did this report because it really debunks something i think that had a life of its own. the idea of people show up in different neighborhoods and intimidate voters, it seems like not many people you said in that. >> old school. >> exactly. your point is so important because i do think it's up to the candidates and concession speeches are difficult and everybody's got a concession speech in their pocket and a victory. and i think back to, and david, you would remember this back to john mccain conceding to barack obama and he talked about the moment in history and he was incredibly gracious. and that was a hard fought contest and it was tough for him but he took that historic moment and he played it forward.
and he was so gracious and what a statesman. >> it calls for that, right? and sometimes, we haven't seen a lot of that graciousness in this race and we'll see what we see at the end. >> one more quick segment and bail out on these tweets. gloria, nia, david, nice to have you here. more tweets in a moment, continue them at @smerconish. let's see what we got. great in your audition for trump tv. i'm a shmuck. absolutely. what time slot do you think the donald would put me in? i think overnight. >> i think 13:00.
you can follow me on twitter if you can spell smerconish. we all tweet, as a matter of fact. we all have profiles. let's see what's come in during the course of the broadcast. put one up. okay. "you had me in your opening remarks until you said that we need to embrace president trump. oh my god. yuck." >> so you didn't really have him. >> also, thank you for that, david. show us another. keep them moving here. thank you, paul. "neighbors to the north watching smerconish to see if we build a north wall." nobody talks about building a wall in canada. >> so you're big in canada, apparently. >> at least tonight. go ahead. keep them rolling. "i think this election cycle has made your beard whiter," rik the president's hair. >> you can't tell with mine, by the way. >> i'll change the subject.
i preferred this morning's tie." >> did you change your tie? >> i did. if i had ten more like choir man, i'd be like anderson cooper. "you're the man. watching cnn from ireland. your panel rocks." i so enjoyed being with them. yeah. is that it? are we done? huh? "is there any word your last name rhymes with. i'm watching you over football right now so keep up your great work." we're back tomorrow night at 8:00 eastern with anderson and then we're here -- >> until 3:00 a.m. >> yeah. until we fall asleep. >> could be a while. >> i really appreciate it. thank you, gloria. i appreciate all three of you. come on. thank you. it's been a lot of fun. and a couple more nights to go. >> yeah. yeah. yeah.
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crunch time. donald trump and hillary clinton about to rally supporters in key battleground states as new polls show the race getting even tighter tonight. plus, trump slamming jay-z's bad language. and trapped in mosul for 24 hours, arwa damon tells us what happened. let's go "outfront." good evening. i'm erin burnett. welcome to a special edition of "outfront" on this saturday, the final push. it's just three days until election