tv CNN Newsroom With Erin Burnett CNN November 8, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm PST
send them, pop them on instagram, hashtag it "my vote" and we'll continue showing all your handsome faces throughout the day here on cnn. i'm brooke baldwin. thank you for being with me. i'll hand it over to erin burnett. live coverage continues right now. good afternoon, i'm erin burnett. welcome to our viewers in the united states and around the world today. it's the most unpredictable presidential race in the united states -- possibly in history. most certainly in modern history. now it's in the hands of voters across the nation. polls closing in just a few hours. we are live across the nation, polling places in battleground states and we'll give you live updates throughout the hour. the lines where turnout is high, with her husband bill in chappaqua, new york, hillary clinton voted earlier this morning reflecting how it felt
to cast a vote for herself for president. >> it is the most humbling fe , feeling, dan, because i know how much responsibility goes with this and so many people are counting on the outcome of this election what it means for our country and i'll do the best i can if i'm fortunate enough to win today. >> donald and melania trump bought a cupcake at the polling place bake sale before voting at a public school near trump tower. trump was asked what his plan is for tomorrow. >> we'll see what happens. we'll see what happens. it's looking very good. right now it's looking very good. >> reporter: [ inaudible question ] >> we'll see what happens. it will be an interesting day. >> this is an election of historic proportions because whoever wins and no matter how passionate you are, think about this, it's either going to be
the first woman president or businessman who has never held elective office. as a nod to the historic significance, long lines in rochester, new york, people paying tribute to susan b. anthony at her grave site. we begin in new york city because new york city is election headquarters for both candidates. they may want to live where i am in washington but that's where they will spend their night tonight. jeff zeleny is at clinton headquarters, sara murray is at trump headquarters. sara, let me start with you. the polls are closing, donald trump has been doing rally after rally after rally different nfr. oddly today nothing to do. >> it's a quieter day and sometimes these hours can be the most stressful because your ads are up on tv, your field staffers are out there but what do you as the candidate have left to do? he is in trump tower. they have a war room set up there, donald trump has passed
through there, chatted with some folks. he's been call into radio stations and battleground states urging people to get out the vote. he's been asked multiple times today whether he will accept the results of this election, obviously building off the moment of the debate where he was not saying if he would and he's playing it vague saying we'll have to see what happens. in one case he said it looks like everything is on the up and up. there is one exception to that so far as far as the trump campaign is concerned, that's a lawsuit they filed in nevada that has to do with clark county and the lines we saw in early voting that allowed these polling places, according to our sources there, not to stay open later but to stay open long enough to allow everyone in line to vote. that's the comment we're getting from clark county. that's not sitting right with the trump campaign so we have our first legal challenge of the day, erin. >> all right, thank you very much, zaisara. i want to go to jeff zeleny at
the clinton campaign headquarters. what is happening inside the clinton campaign this afternoon, jeff? >> reporter: the clinton campaign is feeling confident at this moment largely because of the early vote that came in. this is a different election night in so many respects because more early vote than ever before. particularly in key battleground states like the battleground state of florida and north carolina. so the clinton campaign advisors i talked to are saying they are they feel confident about michigan, pennsylvania, the states where she campaigned yesterday. they feel confident about florida. they believe north carolina may be the closest of all battlegrounds tonight. they don't need those 15 electoral votes but they would like to block donald trump there. i am inside the javits center where hillary clinton will be tonight, win or lose, giving a speech. if you look behind me on the stage, she will be standing on a stage that is the shape of the united states of america. you see the dip of florida going
in. this is the setting here. there is a glass ceiling here in the javits center. you will hear that metaphor and reference so many times tonight should she happen to win. the clinton campaign is still trying to get out the vote. it's what the campaign machinery has been all about. and they're looking for a strong rise in latino votes across the country. that could be the story of this election here the new coalition. the changing face of america will be one thing to watch tonight when the demographics come in but so far at 2:00 on the east the clinton campaign is feeling confident. erin? >> jeff, thank you. it does just come down to who gets to 270. political director david chalian is with me. we know how important north carolina is to donald trump. what states are you watching
most particularly tonight? >> erin, i'm watching five states very closely tonight. this won't be too much of a surprise. this is our battleground map. the three remaining tossup states on the east coast, new hampshire, north carolina, florida, i'm watching all three of those pretty closely for different reasons. one, if florida starts looking like it's going hillary clinton's way, donald trump is going to have a very tough evening. it's almost a complete blockade state for hillary clinton. if she wins that state and wins it early, donald trump will find himself scrambling to get to 270. he starts on our map with 204. without this huge electoral prize in the sunshine state it becomes very difficult. north carolina, one of the closest-contested states of the race, i think it will be a nail-biter, it came come in late so i'm watching that to see how such a closely guided state shakes out and new hampshire, those four electoral votes could be critical to donald trump. remember, he's got to sweep the
battlegrounds, find some other insurance policy in a blue state. those four electoral votes in new hampshire might be the key to his success so i'm watching those carefully as well. the two other states i'm watching are leaning blue on this map -- michigan and colorado. i'll team you why. michigan you saw the flurry of activity at the end. both sides saw that state narrowing the margin there, tight race, and let me tell you that when both sides look at the data and say it's tightening you can take that to the bank this state has a voter profile that should work for donald trump. white, not college educated, his trade message is resonant. it hadn't gone republican since 1988. we've had it leaning blue the entire election but donald trump is making a last stand there. this could be a place where he digs into democratic turf. colorado is the place both campaigns have seen most differently.
the clinton camp thinks they have it in the bag, it's been leaning blue on our map the entire time but trump and the rnc operation, they believe they see opportunity there so i'll look for that later in the evening. those are my five states to watch tonight, erin. >> thank you very much, david chalian. let's get to our panel. mark preston, maeve reston, nia-malika henderson, david gergen, kayleigh mcenany, dan pfeiffer, former advisor to president obama, jeffrey lord, donald trump supporter, angela rye, a clinton supporter. thanks to all. let's start with this issue david, of the states. you hear david talk about what he's looking at. michigan. colorado on there as a battleground state. >> and the tossup states, if you look at the cnn map, you give hillary the solid states and ones that lean democratic and give trump the ones that lean red and solid republican, she
only has to win one of the tossup a states. he has to win all five. otherwise if he does not he has to pry away the michigan or the colorado and that becomes a tougher fight. >> and nia, he was on this morning on fox news talking about the state he is thought he could win. obviously he's going to be robust. >> yes, very generous to himself. here he is -- oops, sorry. [ laughter ] let's play what he had to say. >> i think we're going to win iowa and ohio and new hampshire. we're going to win a lot of states. i think one that's going to be interesting is michigan because it's not a state that's gone republican for many decades and i spent a lot of time there and people are incredible. >> you heard this. ohio, iowa, listing them up. >> i think at some point they were talking about new mexico, too. they are very bullish on their chances and they should be. they've come this far. the polls look very tight.
there are a lot of independents who are voting and that's, i think, an unknown factor, where are those unaffiliated voters coming from? are they knnew voters in terms just ageing into the electorate? it's anybody's guess as to some of these states. i'm definite lly looking at michigan and pennsylvania. the trump campaign has been bullish on that state as well. jeffrey lord has also been bullish. >> i voted this morning. >> those states, michigan and pennsylvania, close early, 8:00, 9:00. some states, nevada is out west, that will be a lagging indicator in terms of viewership and tuning into see what the rest of the map looks like. then it's overarching narrative of what two americas are emerging. the rust belt state, the states most presidents have tried to run up the score in and win and then the sun belt, these states
that have latino populations, emerging age population as well as aifrs. >> you mentioned independents. maeve, that's a crucial group. a lot of people who watched the election say they can't imagine being undecided yet we saw today at the poll stations our reporters are out, undecided voters and independent voters at the polls, and i want to get into specifics on polls but there were large numbers of independents and in some states that seemed beneficial for donald trump. >> and at certain points in the race they have skewed toward donald trump and at other points there have been younger latinos who are part of that group so it will be interesting to see what happens tonight and whether or not the millennials turn out and whether those independents, particularly in florida and other states like that are younger latinos and younger african-americans and whether
they can pull hillary clinton across the line. >> and it's all about turnout. early voting, you had records in several states but that's done now. now it's who do you get to add to that or reverse it? >> and we spent time talking about candidates holding huge rallies, whether it was donald trump or hillary clinton in pennsylvania but it's the boiler room operations behind it that's getting the vote out. it's the operations built in the states and the democrats had had an advantage on that because they've been a more cohesive party. so what traditionally we've seen, and we've seen this with hillary clinton, is the democratic national committee has an operation in place and should be thankful to what dan and his folks did with barack obama in creating a situation and putting this together and merging it with the hillary clinton campaign. what we saw with the trump campaign is that it was by and large just built by the republican national committee. so their get out the vote operation cannot be matched up. >> and when you look at get out
the vote, today, let's take a couple states we do know. you see long lines, you think that means high turnout. not necessarily. there could be fewer voting stations than there were before. but look at connecticut. that state is obviously going go for hillary clinton but you have what looks like could be record turnout. they're talking about high turnout. what does that mean? oops, sorry, my papers are blowing away. what does that mean if you see that in a state like that? can you extrapolate to that to enthusiasm for her on election day elsewhere? >> i think turnout is not just high in one state, it's high nationwide, we saw that in 2008, even in states barack obama didn't compete in, record turnout so higher turnout will be better for hillary clinton in this race. that's traditionally true for democrats. we saw tremendous enthusiasm in the early vote and when you look at the electoral map the real challenge is david chalian can't put this on his map but the early vote, nevada is gone for trump. so he has to win michigan, pennsylvania, or colorado and sweep the rest so that's where we are looking at the race right
now and turnout matters and -- but the higher turnout is bad news for trump. >> why is it necessarily bad news for trump? >> because democrats have a larger base than the republicans. >> but if it's high independents, isn't this what donald trump wanted to do, to bring out people who haven't voted before? >> there was no evidence in the primary of that happening and if you look at the numbers and you have a larger group of sporadic voters who identify as democrats and would vote as democrat than republicans so the larger turnout is necessarily going to benefit democrats if it's universal increased turnout. >> what do you make of the turnout issue here? >> all i can say is having voted in pennsylvania this morning the line was pretty long. the turnout was clearly very good and being in contact with a friend in the pennsylvania legislature tells me turnout throughout the state is extremely heavy, although not certain about philadelphia, the northeastern part of
philadelphia which has a lot of republicans and cops and firemen and people who might be inclined to vote for donald trump. that turnout is good. we don't know what it is, or at least i don't, for the rest of philadelphia. john king was talking last night about the turnout for barack obama in 2012 and that it was some -- in philadelphia, it was something like 500,000 to 91,000 for governor romney. if donald trump -- if that drops in terms of enthusiasm for hillary clinton -- >> it's all about margin. >> right. this extensive turnout in the rest of the state can make a big difference. >> but pre-election vote turnout, angela, take georgia, a state everyone expect will go for donald trump, but it's been within a point or two. pre-election voter turn out highest ever. higher than 2008. higher than for barack obama. >> right and i think this is a case of underestimating voters who were not even old enough to vote in 2008 or 2012, we
continue to talk about these elections and demographics as if they are frozen in time. this is a browner and blacker electorate than what you saw in '08 or '12 and they are registered. one thing that i think is so exciting and i was so proud to watch it happen. last night in illinois, to use a state we know pretty much is going to go for hillary clinton as well, chance the rapper teamed up with the black youth project and had a parade to the polls and these are the kinds of things where we continue to underestimate not only black folks in north carolina where they faced insurmountable voter suppression but also young black millennials who we've said are not enthusiastic and turning out. and what you've seen is there is a reliable demographic in this country that always show up in spaf the odds. >> i think we've also underestimated donald trump and his coalition. >> absolutely. >> i looked at the real clear politics averages and if we give donald trump every state, he gets 265 electoral votes and here's where his challenge lies, finding that one state that will
come into his column that is a blue state. new hampshire, for instance, that's a tossup on our map. he's trailing but slightly. if he can hold down where he's leading even slight leads in florida where it's .2% and pull in new hampshire, we have 269, 269 and the legislature here might be the one making the decision. we hope that doesn't happen for the sake of the country. stay with me. we're going to go to north carolina which could be the state that decides it all. must win for donald trump. there's one county in particular in in north carolina that you need to watch. we'll tell you about it. and does it all come down to the black vote in ohio? and what does a presidential candidate do on election day? we'll talk to the two men who know all too well.
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north carolina could be the state who decide to become america's 45th president. gary tuchman is live in charlotte, north carolina, where people are cueing to vote. she doesn't have to have it but donald trump must win north carolina. >> very important state, erin, for donald trump. and right now we're standing in a place where it's polling place perpetual motion. we're standing in one of the 2,700 precincts in the state of north carolina. right now we here in the heart of charlotte. it opened at 6:30, there was a line around the block to get in. the line died down be but it's
picking up again. there's a woman right here, as a matter of fact, i'll ask you a quick question while you're registering here. which one of you are voting, both of you? >> are you voting? >> yes, sir. >> you told me you left because it was too crowded? >> i did leave this morning because it was too crowded? >> how long were you waiting before you left? >> well, i didn't have much time because my husband needed to go to work and he was with the baby. it was an hour long. it wasn't too long. >> but you're voting now. >> yes. we can tell you mecklenburg county was very kind to barack obama in 2008 and 2012. in order for hillary clinton to win the state of north carolina, she has to do well here and she would have to do well in areas like the research triangle which is raleigh durham, a two half hour in drive from here. this area, they're letting us walk around to give you what's going down. you line up here after you fill out a form. they make sure if you're
registered in this precinct and they us supreme court you to one of these machines. they have 21 touch screen machines. they've had no problems with machines all day. everything has worked orderly. we can tell you, erin, one thing about the lines which are incredible, most people have already voted in the state of north carolina, very extensive early voting program here, 16 days of early voting, 3.1 million north carolinians voted early. there are 6.9 million total registered in the state so before anyone came to the polling places 45% of registered vote voters. we've heard about donald trump's lawsuit against the state of nevada about people voting after voting was over. one anecdote we saw on friday, voting was over at 1:00 but the line continued until 6:15 because there were hundreds of people. and we watched someone show up 30 seconds after 1:00, they were not allowed to vote but everyone else waited in line for five and a half hours because they got
there before one. >> tuchman, thank you very much. i want to talk about crucial place places around this country, not even on the state level but everyone watching in america and around the world. there are clues that you may not have to wait for a state to see how this election is going to go. let's start with north carolina. wake county, specific county crucial. in 2008 obama won this county by 64,000 votes, david, and won north carolina. in 2012 he won it by 54,000. so only a little less, still won it but it wasn't enough. that county turned out to be the crucial county because he lost north carolina. you know this county well. >> i grew up next door, my son lives next door now and this is a state and county that represents the importance of college-educated people. there's been a lot of in flow into wake county. the driver city is cary, people
say it stands for "concentrated area for relocated yankees." [ laughter ] >> it's become important mark preston when you look at that because when you look at wake county in north carolina there are other counties. especially as you've seen those voters not justlying in five places in the country but 25 places, 30 places. >> and we're talking about new coalitions that are created in this election. college educated voters have voted for republicans and in the polling we're seeing they are going democratic. so as david says when you're talking about the influx of people from other states moving in to north carolina, you could also look to colorado as well. if you look to colorado, you're looking at a county such as jefferson county right now and we could potentially see early signs in north carolina about how voters were voting and maybe
see how colorado will go later on so even two different states but very similar. >> and so fascinating because i was out in jefferson county talking to affluent well educated suburban women in that county that has been a bellwether for so long and so many of them could not stand either candidate and it may be a sign, also, of what kind of strength the republican party has going forward after this election. donald trump is not a good candidate for colorado but if they vote down ballot for other republicans, will there be a future in colorado? >> will the democrats if they win read too much into a victory? you look in florida, hillsboro county. florida a must-win state as well but hillsboro county perhaps a bellwether. the winner? that county has predicted it correctly in 19 of the past 20 elections. right now, talk about a split, 39% dem, 32 gop, 29%
independent. >> and who are those independents? are they younger voters? are they latinos? are they people that switch their registration because they don't want to be affiliated with either party? >> that's donald trump's secret army of voters. >> they could be donald trump voters as well. all of these big talese hugely important. the white vote, as you said before if you look in wake county in north carolina for instance it's five counties, those five large counties. forsythe, durham, that's where obama was able to do well. two-thirds of the vote is there and if you're looking at donald trump, he's got to swell the vote in these rural counties. >> and we'll go through many more counties through the show. this is john king's expert eye that selected the counties so we'll go through more because there are a few others with different demographic profiles that could hold the key to the entire thing. let's go to martin savidge right now in another must-win state, ohio. he's in the town of parma.
martin, donald trump, of course, must win ohio tonight as well. >> reporter: right. and he's got a path to doing that. and that really relies on democrats. working-class democrats. we've talked about this in the primary. heed that crossover effect. he was appealing to those ohioans who were blue-collar democrats but this time around because of the economy, job loss and what they see as a decline of their way of life, donald trump spoke in ways they liked -- bring the jobs back, renegotiate those bad trade deals and other issues which he has been so strong on. those resonated in places like parma, we're still cuyahoga county outside of cleveland. this would be a densely democratic area with the exception that this is the perfect kind of area donald trump has been reaching into where they've lost all those jobs. hillary clinton meanwhile, needs to have the turnout of every democrat in the northern part of the state and she's particularly relying on the old -- we would say obama coalition, the minority and african-american voters who turn out in large
numbers. the problem is, early voting suggests that hasn't happened. she has not caught fire here, the enthusiasm is just not the same. early voting was up in all parts of ohio, especially the southern parts of ohio, donald trump area. the only place it was down? chuyahoga county. that doesn't tell us what votes were cast but it gives you an indication of why democrats are concerned. erin? >> all right, martin, thank you very much. joining me now, former 2016 republican presidential candidate dr. ben carson who, of course, is supporting donald trump and the president of the naacp, cornell brooks. cornell, you're with me, let me just start with you. the issue martin is mentioning in ohio. take ohio. are you concerned about that? the drop in turnout? >> i'm very concerned. very concerned. because the naacp has staked everything on the right to vote and protecting the right to vote so we are concerned about any depression in turnout.
but what has been done, we reached out to millennials, to african-american women, we mobilized our 2,000 units across the country but we've also mobilized units to phone into ohio, to phone bank into ohio because we're concerned about turnout. it is to us. but the voter suppression, the negative of this campaign may have some effect. we're doing our work. >> and dr. carson, do you look at this as the opposite side? you say great, black turnout down, not a problem for donald trump less of a problem than he can use that to his advantage. >> i'd like to see everybody enfranchise everybody voting heavily because, you know, our country is surrounded by the will have the people at least the initial intention was for that. but i'm happy to see donald trump is reaching out to african-american voters.
it's one of the first things we talked about before i decided to endorse him and he's very enthusiastic about creating strength in our inner cities because you can't have a great country if your inner cities are work. so i don't actually think this is a democrat or republican issue, this is an issue of how do we strengthen our country. we only have 330 million people. china has 1.4 billion, india 1.3 billion. we have to compete with them to the future. we can't afford to waste any of our people. >> cornell, here's part of the issue in ohio. martin savidge, who was just there, spoke to black voters about what is the issue? why no turnout. here's the conversation he had with one of them and i want to play it. this is specifically about hillary clinton. listen in. >> i'm not a huge fan of hillary myself so i don't -- i think it's -- i think in every community it's going to be that way. >> reporter: is there as much
excitement as there was four years ago? >> i don't believe so. >> interesting, two different voters. four years ago barack obama was running but you heard who the first man said. in every community i think it's going to be that way. this teem seems to be that way. this seems to be a hillary clinton specific problem. >> i don't think that's the case. the reason i don't think it's the case because hillary clinton and donald j. trump may be at the top of the ticket but the fact of the matter is the names of our children, the names of the victims of police misconduct, we've seen unprecedented levels of activism in this country, people are civically engaged. the issue is quite simply turning them on to voting. we have endeavored to do that. we believe that african-americans are turning out the vote, the vote may not be what it was in 2012 but the issue is whether or not it is necessary and sufficient. we believe that will be the case in terms of prevailing on the issues that we're concerned about. >> dr. carson, when you look at
the african-american vote in this country, how it's gone, it always goes democratic, but barack obama 93% last time, 95% in 2008. sure, that was better than consider kerry or gore but frankly not a lot better, 88% for kerry, gore with 90%. hillary clinton right now, most recent polls, an nbc/"wall street journal" poll put her at 86% which is the lowest of everyone if it ends up being the case, but do you think donald trump is actually going to do better than the people who ran against those other democrats? >> yes, i think he's going to do significantly better. as you know, there was a rasmussen poll not long ago that showed him with 16% of the african-american vote but, you know, polls, really, i think are not the key thing here because a lot of people, particularly in some communities, would not admit they were voting for donald trump because the narrative has been placed out there that if you're black and you are for donald trump then
you're an uncle tom, you're a sellout, all kinds of horrible epithets attached to your name. that's part of the way that you corral people and put pressure on them when, in fact, we need to be talking about the issues. we need to be talking about why is it that income is going down, that we have more people being incarcerated, more out-of-wedlock births, more people on food stamps. . we need to talk about how do we solve that problem and as far as i'm concerned it's not a democrat or republican issue. >> cornell, let me give you a chance do respond. is there a secret black trump vot voter? >> if there is a secret black trump voter it is a state secret because the fact of the matter is african-americans are not the captains of political correctness. the first priority of any candidate is not to persuade that they can campaign but to, in fact, demonstrate that they can govern which means that you have to have specificity of policy. mr. trump has not spoken to the
issues of the african-american community. he unveils a new deal for african-americans. >> right, as he called it. >> but he hasn't spoken about employment, housing, education with any specificity so he's not made the affirmative case so i don't believe that there's a secret stash of black votes for mr. trump and we're saying that not as a matter of partisanship but policy specificity. he's not risen to the standard of a serious presidential candidate nor has he treated the intellect and aspirations of african-americans seriously. if he were to do so, it would mean speaking to black america with black people in the room about the issues they're concerned about with specificity. >> thank you both very much. we will see what the final numbers are, what the turnout is and how it goes with the african-american vote in this country. next we'll gol to florida. in addition to the fact that it's must win for hillary clinton and donald trump, there's a bitter senate battle
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randi kaye is in florida. florida was the closest state in 2012. it has been a dead heat between clinton and trump. there have been 25 polls taken in recent months. you're there today. what are you seeing in terms of turnout and who's showing up in the polls, how long the lines are. >> it sounds like it will be close. we know hillary clinton was here 13 times since the democratic convention. donald trump has been here 12 times and a lot of folks want their voices heard. in fact, they want them heard so early that they've all early voted. 60% of this precinct in orange county has early voted which may explain why there's not much of a line behind me. we polled a couple of voters, trisha and brian are joining me and you have been coming to this decision, you decided to vote donald trump, why? >> i have. i just didn't want clinton in there. i think it should be the end of the clinton era. >> it's not important to you to have a first woman president? >> not with clinton it's not. >> and brian, who are you voting
for and why? >> i voted for jill stein and i like her very much on environmental issues and what her domestic policy is. >> and you work at a golf club and you said you haven't heard anyone there talk about hillary clinton in a positive light but a lot of good talk about donald trump. >> yes, i work at a golf course where there's a lot of retired military and they're all wanting donald trump. >> do you have friends voting hillary clinton? are there any women friends that's important to? >> there are a couple but the majority of my friends are trump voters. >> what are the issues important that you went with trump? >> i just think we need a change. we need a change going in a different direction. >> reporter: and if you wake up tomorrow morning and hillary clinton is president, one word, how will you both feel? >> i'm glad it's over. >> reporter: more than one word. one word? >> oh, well. >> reporter: two words, they can't count here. appreciate it, i know you voted
for marco rubio as well. certainly that's a big senate race folks are following here. he's getting support from the latino vote, the hispanic vote which is up 89%, erin, since it was last looked at in 2012 so that's certainly good for marco rubio. back to you. >> thank you very much, randi, that will be fascinating if you see people voting for hillary clinton and marco rubio. the point we were making earlier, what does that mean for down the line? that would be far from a democratic sweep. my panel is back with me along with trump supporter scottie nell hughes and paris deny. you heard that woman. she voted for marco rubio and donald trump and she said she didn't want the first woman president to be hillary clinton. it soundsed like she actually was pretty pragmatic. she said if hillary clinton wins tomorrow she's fine with it. but she wanted change. in a word she wanted change. >> yeah, i think there have been a lot of voters throughout the primary that talked about that.
there have been things that have been said about it's time for dynasties to end, no more bushes, they didn't want clintons either. but i think i would push back on what she wants in terms of change. she said we want a different direction. i would argue that's not a positive direction for the country to go in. i don't think there is going to be much surprises here, i think there will be instances where people split their ticket. meaning they support hillary clinton as their presidential candidate and may also support marco rubio. unfortunately for the democrats i don't think patrick murphy was a strong senatorial candidate. there are other states that i think are the still in play. >> when you talk about the senate, nia, this is a crucial issue. charlie cook from the "national journal" said he thought democrats could pick up four or five seats. >> that's what they need. >> is that the likelihood? >> it seems to be more the likelihood than not. if you look at illinois, new hampshire, wisconsin and pennsylvania, it seems like
those are strong possibilities. it looks like that nevada seat with cortez masto. it's harry reid's seat. it's hard to see him giving up that seat to a republican so it looks likely. one of the narratives, and we'll have to see if this is true, is that the fbi's initial announcement, the vague letter comey sent out seemed to maybe hurt those down-ballot races a lot and you saw the republicans being much more bullish on their chances after that. >> can i add quickly to that? i would not sleep on missouri. jason candor is the democratic secretary of state there and even though missouri tends to be red, they have launched a hell of a campaign against roy blount. >> paris, this isn't how you think it will go. when you look at someone voting for hillary clinton at the top and marco rubio at the bottom, that does open the door to the senate going different than the white house if she wins.
>> i have never bought into this idea of this down-ballot issue as going to be as strong as it is with respect to people believing that mr. trump is going to weigh down. illinois, for instance, that senator was always going to vote the way he does because of the district, because of the state he represents so what i believe is there are going to be people who look at this election and vote on change and they're going to vote for mr. trump and then say you know what? speaker ryan is voting for mr. trump, mitch mcconnell is voting for trump and if i want the change i need in washington i need to have mr. trump are have support and they'll vote down ballot. >> so how crucial is the senate race here? the balance of power, if you're watching this around the world you'll look at the house p that's won't. >> the house has veto power and the senate in order to get things done you need 60 votes. >> so on a practical basis -- >> having 51 or 52 isn't that meaningful but you get the investigatory power which is
extraordinarily important. look at what jason chaffetz is threatening in the house. and there are other aspects of power that are important. it helps on every vote that comes up about the supreme court to get that one or two extra and this may be the best window. if hillary wins, this may be the best window for her getting things done because in 2018 there's a good chance the senate will go back to the republican side. >> you've been through this. how significant would this be to have it by a tiny margin versus not having it. >> it's critically important. under president obama we had a democratic senate six years, republican for two. her appointments, her ability to get her cabinet, the secretaries confirmed. >> supreme court. >> supreme court. there will be a huge different. when the democrats had the senate they changed the rules to allow 50 vote on cabinet and non-supreme court judges. many i suspicion is if they take the senate back they'll do it again so she can get her cabinet appoi appointed. makes a huge difference. >> none of this is a shower
thing, though. >> not at all. >> it's increedbly close and you look at the establishment candidates, you know, ayotte and rubio and portman and grassley and even john mccain in arizona they have been outpolling donald trump. the most fascinating thing to watch is what that tells us about the strength of the republican brand and whether it was a good, idea, in fact, to distance yourself from donald trump and what the long-term damage is or do people see this as two distinct things? in arizona we're not expecting hillary clinton is going to pull that off but you have sheriff joe on the ballot there and a lot of latinos turning out and it will be a fascinating window into 2020. >> obamacare premiums at 116% increase in arizona so the big question is did everyone misread the american people the republican base and the voters
and misread how they feel about mr. trump? >> and the races that are the most contentious for the senators are the ones that came out against trump a long time ago. now kelly ayotte, she was in a tough race, now she's able to sleep but she started going along with the crew. >> that's not true. >> she's kept her mouth quiet. she's not publicly criticized. >> she said she didn't want her daughter in the same room with him. >> that was weeks ago. >> it was like days ago. >> but she still said she voted for donald trump. you saw it come together in the end. that's what we're talking about. >> i'm going be clear. she said she wouldn't let her daughter in a room with donald trump or bill clinton. up next, hillary clinton's and donald trump's election day soup station, we'll take you live to their headquarters. just about three hours away from
welcome back to cnn's special election day coverage. just hours away few the first polls closing and what begins the agonizing rate for results for hillary clinton and donald trump. hours ago donald trump revealing he is superstition and hoping history will repeat itself this evening. here he is. >> i'm a little superstition so when you said please call, i said i'll call but i've won many primaries speaking to you first thing in the morning so i'll keep that string going. >> all right. two men who know all about these extremely tense hours. the former senior advisor to mitt romney, kevin madden. former senior advisor to president obama, dan pfeiffer
the superstition you heard donald trump. hillary clinton has her own superstitions. let me play hers, she has something specific she does, too, it's not calling into fox news. >> i've worn the same bracelet, the same necklace. i am not talking to anybody about what they're hearing in terms of early vote and all the rest of it because i am superstitious. >> same bracelet, same necklace. mitt romney, did he have something he did? >> superstitions are good. you get more superstitions as you do more campaigns. >> why do i buy mitt romney would be the one guy who isn't superstitious. >> different from a superstitious, he had a routine. he liked to vote early and spend time with his family when i know i wo -- when i worked on campaigns, back in the analog area, i would go to the movies.
because the anxiety -- >> you can't do anything. you don't want to watch this all day. >> right now the work is done and you're waiting for returns. so unplugging for three to four hours because when the returns come in there will be a lot of anxiety and anticipation and it drives you crazy. but a lot of campaigns, when you work on many of them, off rue teen. i expect president obama did the same in those campaigns he worked on. >> he did. president obama on election day, he started this in the primary in 2008 and continued through -- the 2008 general election and 2012 and today as he plays basketball on election day. he is a very cool guy but he's superstitious and election day is hard for candidates because they have had not a moment to themselves for years now and suddenly there's almost nothing he can. >> do would he read a book? >> well, you sit around, maybe you hear anecdotal stuff that means nothing and president obama would do television interviews to battleground markets and do phone calls to radio stations to turn out the vote but that takes up two hours of your day. the rest is sitting around
twiddling your thumbs but a lot of pacing. >> imagine driving in the daytona 500 and then getting stuck in traffic. you go through a breakneck pace for anywhere from a year and a half to two years then on one day it becomes 24 hours of reflection and that's the hardest part. >> how do you deal with winning and losing. mitt romney had a victory speech prepared and not a loss speech. i remember that night i was in ohio and getting e-mails from people close to romney saying "we've got ohio" and that's not how he went and he lost. how do you deal with that? >> one of the myths of the 2012 campaign is that the romney campaign expected to win. i don't think that's true. when you go through the type of campaign you go through and you have an investment of time and energy and emotion you believe you have a chance to win on election day and what's most important for the candidate is the message you send with your
behavior and attitude that day. the campaign volunteers across the country and staff feed off of that so you have to have a sense of optimism until the polls come in. >> of victory. >> of victory. that's why governor romney prepared an acceptance speech not concession because who wants to knock on doors for a guy that's already written a concession speech. >> and you don't know what it's like to lose? >> well, i've worked on losing campaigns. we beat him in 2004. i want to remind everybody. >> winning campaigns, losing campaigns, it's so hard, you're in shock because the candidate and staff and volunteers have given their entire life for sometimes up to two years and it goes one way or the other. either you're going to win and work in the white house and serve your country or be unemployed the next day so it's very hard, it takes a long time to get over it and you have to be sympathetic for the people going through that today. >> more reasons we might want to consider a parliamentary system. i find it straight 51% of the
people get to decide 100% of the outcome but that's way beyond the scope of today's conversation. trump and clinton holding their election party a mile and a half apart. they'll billion in the middle of new york city tonight. we'll take you there live. and a surge in latino voting since 2012. you've heard the stunning statistics. will it make the difference in florida? we're live there next. [ sighs ]
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