tv Situation Room With Wolf Blitzer CNN November 8, 2016 2:00pm-3:01pm PST
much all day long. early in the morning, lots of folks. and now after work, there's a whole long line here ready to vote. jake. >> pennsylvania a key commonwealth. sarah thank you so much. thank you for joining us this hour. we continue now with wolf blitzer and anderson cooper. america votes. whatever happens next, american history is being made. will the night end with a first woman president elect. >> first exit polling data coming in now. what the numbers could say about how the night ends? early signs that it is high. >> trump forces fire the first shot in what could be a long legal battle over the election, and a judge fires back. >> i'm anderson cooper. >> i'm wolf blitzer. it's a cnn election coverage special and you're in "the situation room". a very big night ahead.
our political director is crunching the exit polling numbers right now. we'll check in with him momentarily. first, let's go to christinn's a keilar covering the clinton campaign from new york. this morning hillary clinton voted. we just saw her leave her home in chappaqua, new york, outside of new york city. brianna, what has she been doing and where will she be tonight? >> reporter: she had quite the late night last night, wolf. she, after a four-stop swing through battleground states wasn't home -- landing certainly in westchester county until 3:30 a.m. this morning. she charged through the morning, voted in the 6:00 a.m. hour, and then she took a bit of a breather after doing some radio interviews. she has done some more radio interviews and, as you know, she is now on her way from her home in chappaqua to manhattan. she'll hunker down at the pennsylvania hotel. she'll be looking and waiting for the results to come in. of course, many hours until
then. until then, wolf, she'll be working on her speech, which is pretty characteristic for secretary clinton to do something, really, up until the last minute. we do understand she has two versions of that speech, one for if she wins and one if she loses. her campaign sources are feeling confident about the night, wolf. >> what else are you hearing from the clinton campaign? i know they're feeling confident, are they, shall we say, very, very confident? are they nervous? how do they really sense this night could go? >> i am not picking up a lot of nerves. i think it's really for them, as they see it, more a matter of when, not if she wins. so that is going to be the question. and we don't know the answer to that question. what i can tell you is that, while many people on the campaign, their work is largely done, this is the day where they wait and see what happens and what the voters decide, there is still a number of people who work for the analytics team and who work for the field team who are hunkered down in the brooklyn headquarters and waiting for information to come
in. they're not just relying on necessarily the polls closing but trying to see what the models they have generated, what they think the results are going to be, wolf. >> brianna keilar, we'll check in with you throughout the night. let's check in with chris frates in manchester, new hampshire. chris, what are you hearing? what are you seeing? >> reporter: wolf, i have to tell you, we are probably on our way to a record-breaking night of turnout, at least here in this precinct. almost 900 extra ballots have just come in. there are about 3100 people registered to vote in this precinct. they've already seen 2500 ballots cast and they expect another 1,000 people to register today. new hampshire, a battleground state. it's a small state. only four electoral votes up but it's a mighty state. just ask al gore. if he had won new hampshire he would have won the presidency even after losing florida. that's a lesson all the campaigns have learned from, and
they're really getting out the vote here. in fact, the clinton campaign has knocked on more than a million doors, they've called two million supporters to get out the vote today. the donald trump campaign, 1.8 million doors knocked, 1.7 million phone calls made. that's because there is no early voting here in new hampshire. tonight is the night. you have to get your supporters to the polls. and independents, wolf, will be huge here. as you know, the undeclared voters outnumber democrats and republicans here. to give you some sense of how this went down four years ago, 43% of people who cast a ballot were independents. they broke for barack obama. hillary clinton hoping those independents break her way today. donald trump trying to reverse the trend and break the hillary clinton blue wall. we'll see what happens. lots of excitement here. lots of turnout. new hampshire will be a very exciting place to watch, wolf. >> certainly will be. chris frates, thanks very much. we'll get the first exit poll results. our political director david
chalian is crunching the numbers right now. we'll share them with you momentarily. to anderson right now. >> bringing in our panel. it's too big to introduce everybody. i'll get right to it and you all can figure it out. s.e., what are you looking for in the next hour or two? >> well, in small ball, i am looking at things like ground game. are traditional things like ground game still important? we'll be able to see whether trump's sort of disinterest in a traditional ground game will matter and whether hillary's almost historic ground game will make a huge difference. >> the trump people have been saying we are in a new age of politics. talking about big ground games, that's old school thinking. >> he might be right. he flipped a lot of things an its head. that's why tonight for so many other reasons is historic. but also, this is a referendum election. on a number of things. it's a referendum on obama. hillary clinton sort of walked
away from him in the beginning, but now she is right there. four more years. is that what people want. but also on washington. if donald trump, a candidate who is so unconventional, so controversial, lacking political experience, really alienating a lot of people, if he pulls this off, this will be momentous. i don't want to say more historical than the first woman president. it wouldn't be. but almost less believable. >> either way, nia, this is a historic night. you have probably the biggest outside candidate since -- i don't know. >> yes. ever. >> andrew jackson maybe? >> unconventional, right, in terms of the way he ran. bucking political correctness. and running this twitter campaign, essentially, and rejecting ads and ground game. and then hillary clinton, this person who would be historic, the first woman president. you see people going to the grave sites of suffragettes and
leaving their "i voted" stickers. for a certain segment of voters, particularly older women who have waited for this moment for decades and decades, it will be really meaningful. i do think, in terms of donald trump, there were two theories about why romney lost. was it because he didn't get enough white voters or because he didn't have a diverse base of voters who liked him. and i think we -- you know, i mean so far it looks like trump is betting that it's about white voters. and it could be that he does better than mitt romney. >> david, you worked with candidates on both sides of the aisle. presidents on both sides of the aisle. at this point do the campaigns themselves -- they all have internal data -- do they know whether or not their candidate is going to win? >> they've got a very good idea. usually the candidate will know one or two nights before. we've got it. we don't have it. you have to prepare yourself. yes. what they really do is start thinking about governing. what comes next. i do think tonight one of the things you have to look for -- if it's hillary, the question is how big of a victory.
if it's a small victory, it won't help her with governing, it will leave a lot of recriminations among trump voters. if it's a big victory she will have more leverage going forward. for example, if latinos really step up and deliver a pivotal state like florida, the republican also under enormous pressure to get an immigration bill done so we can appeal to these people. >> if it's donald trump, how do you bring together these groups? >> then it's an unknown territory. i don't know how you put together a government. a couple people in the foreign policy area have stayed on the sidelines in case they're needed, for -- in a trump government. i think you'll see the markets respond extremely negatively and a lot of other repercussions. not to say he can't put it together but he is in really uncharted territory. >> kirsten. >> he's talked about, if he
wins, the type of people he'd put in office are divisive people. rudy giuliani. anderson, the first exit poll numbers will give us an indication of who is actually voting, why they are voting the way they are. i want to go to cnn's david chalian. our political director. you've been crunching the numbers. the first poll closings in a few hours. >> interviews we conducted across the nation with voters as they were leaving the polls. these are preliminary numbers. they'll shift throughout the night. one of the things we're looking at is when did people decide. take a look at this. when few late deciders. 7% tell us in the last few days. 5% say within the last week. that's 12% there. but the other 88% decided in october or before that. so swirl of headlines at the end of the campaign, just a small group of late deciders there. another thing that we looked at, wolf, is a quality -- the qualities in the candidate that people are looking for here.
this is an electorate hungry for change. look at that. 38% of voters across the nation today say the number one quality they're looking for in the candidate is somebody who can bring about needed change. but, take a look at this. looking for a candidate with the right experience? 22%. good judgment, 22%. add those together, if you are looking for the right experience or good judgment, you're about 44% there. add those together. versus the 38% change candidate. this has been a trump stronghold. change. this has been a hillary clinton stronghold, right experience and good judgment. they're splitting. what's really interesting is that not many people were looking for an empathetic candidate, caring about me and my problems. that only 15% of the electorate said was their number one candidate quality. wolf. >> explain to our viewers, david, how we're dealing with these exit poll results. you're going to be giving us a lot more later this hour and certainly next hour as well. >> right. so we're looking at sort of the racial makeup of the country, the education levels that voters
have today in the country. what the electorate looks like. we'll compare it to what it looked like four years ago and what we can glean from that. also, these exit polls are married up with real vote returns as they come in so that our decision desk can start making projections as the night goes on and vote talleys start to come in. >> i know you're crunching more tom numbers. back to you shortly. interesting to see the exit polls. the day of bill clinton kind of i feel your pain, apparently they don't really care whether or not they understand you. it's more about judgment, it's about change, and leadership. >> yeah. >> do you think it helps either -- >> it's hard to say. what, 38% were for change. you imagine those are folks who would vote for donald trump, right? and the other ones, in terms of temperament, experience, you imagine those are voters -- i mean, this is a split electorate. we can see that in all of the polls. people seem to want different things. >> empathy clearly isn't what
voters are interested in this year because you have two candidates who poll pretty low when it comes to empathy. and so i don't know. we might be sort of beyond the hope/change kind of idealism and more into a realism with what we need the big hurdles we have. >> corey. one of the things donald trump was hitting hillary clinton for was what he said a lack of judgment. that she has the wrong kind of experience and the wrong kind of judgment. when you see those exit polls does it speak to your candidate? >> i think it does. there was another story about another exit poll that said what is the most important thing you're looking for and it was a strong leader. donald trump has positioned himself in this race, whether you agree or disagree that he will be tough on our adversaries, tough on crime, tough on isis. the exit polling we saw earlier today reported by "politico" and others said that was the number one issue they saw in their polling data. that bodes well for donald
trump. >> democrats will quibble with what the definition of being a strong leader means. >> i think people want a strong leader. they don't want the wrong leader. i think, for so many americans and especially what we're going to see is the hillary clinton coalition come out and elect her tonight, they definitely do not see donald trump as the right leader for this country. i also think that a big number that i believe will benefit hillary is that 88% decided what their decision was going to be before october. and that was, you know, before the comey letter. this was at the time after the conventions when hillary clinton was really running away with the polls, when people were thinking she is the one that has the temperament, the judgment to be commander in chief. by the way that piece of what has come out in the polls, has never changed for her. >> quick break. a lot more with the panel ahead and reaction to the polling data with a trump advisor. that and more at the cnn coverage counts down to election history. we'll be right back.
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first poll closings right now. as we do, we're checking in with our correspondents across the country. ana cabrera is in golden, colorado, with an update on voting there. what are you seeing? >> reporter: we're inside the jefferson county election center where all these workers behind me are getting ready to process ballots that have been returned. colorado is a mostly mail-in ballot state. we know at least two-thirds of all registered voters have already cast their ballot. we just got new numbers from the secretary of state's office in colorado that show 2.4 million voters in colorado have now voted. right now registered republicans are leading slightly by 36,000 vote returns or ballot returns. we don't know who is voting for who. when you look at party affiliation republicans have an early edge. remember, that was the same about this time last year, or last election, i should say, in 2012 where republicans were leading early on and ultimately
president obama ended up sweeping the state. now, the workers here in this room are taking their ballots out of the envelopes. the envelopes are where people have signed their ballots. they'll take the ballots out. they'll straighten them out and put them in piles to get them ready to go through the vote-counting machine. the machine will process the ballots. there is anonymity to it. they'll no longer know who cast which vote on their ballot in particular. this is a process that's been going on now, wolf, for about two weeks since the ballots were sent out and are now being mailed back. we'll keep an eye on what's going on hear, as we're now hearing that there have been a few hiccups in the voting processing machines across the state. that is confirmed from jefferson county election officials. i am working to get more information on that for you. we'll check back shortly. >> colorado a key battleground state. jim acosta is at trump campaign headquarters in midtown manhattan. what's the latest? what are you hearing?
>> reporter: wolf, talking to a number of sources this afternoon. in the words of one top party official, momentum. they're feeling momentum. in several battleground states. obviously, the trump campaign, we have been talking about this, is very excited about michigan. they feel like, looking at the public polls and the internal polls, that that race between hillary clinton and donald trump in the state of michigan has tightened. i have talked to a very key republican source in just the last few minutes that did say that there are concerns in north carolina and pennsylvania. pennsylvania, obviously, is a key state that donald trump has targeted since the beginning of this campaign. chock full of workers class voters who will be instrumental if he's going to be successful later on tonight. there are concerns, i am told, from a key republican party source, about how he is performing right now and what they're seeing in pennsylvania. also, there are some concerns about north carolina, according to this source. obviously, wolf, we have talked about this time and again.
it's sort of that trump trifecta. he needs to win florida, north carolina, ohio, and then peel away some more blue states if he has any hope of winning the white house. but i am talking to one republican source, key republican source, who says there are some jitters inside the trump campaign when it comes to the state of north carolina. now, obviously, the polls are still open. people are voting as we speak, so we shouldn't draw any conclusions and this could be a very long night. going into today, i can tell you from talking to several republican sources, wolf, and these are not never-trump people. these are people who are supporting the republican nominee -- that there are concerns that donald trump can pull this off tonight, but of course, we have to watch and wait just like everybody else, wolf. >> yes. we certainly do. jim acosta in new york. thank you. joining us now, trump campaign senior communications advisor jason miller. jason, thank you for joining us. >> thank you for having me. >> going into election day. donald trump was down in the national polls a bit. his path to 270, as i think you
acknowledge, is narrow. what does trump need to see happen tonight in order to win? in other words, which states are the most important battleground states right now? >> wolf, let me back up one second to north carolina, with the intro that i had from jim acosta here, who -- at this point in the game, i mean, this is election day. i am not sure who these anonymous sources are or if they exist. here is the reality in north carolina and here is why, if you are a trump supporter, you should feel really good right now. trump has absentees and early voting on election day and we have big turnouts on election day to bring in the win. in the state of north carolina, the combined votes right now for republicans were 140,000 votes better than the ticket was four years ago in north carolina. so that's a huge momentum swing. we are feeling very good about north carolina. want to back up and talk about florida for a moment. four key counties where republican turnout is overperforming. duval, and hillsborough where
tampa is. republican performance is 6% better. democratic performance is 4% worse. giving a ten-point delta. broward county. a stronghold of democrats are coming out. republicans are over-performing by six points and democrats are underperforming by six points. in collier county, in southwest florida, it's a three, three and a half points better for republicans, three and a half less for democrats. so in four key indicators around the state of florida we're feeling very good. again, just like i pointed out with north carolina, the early voting spread between republicans and democrats in the state of florida is 81,000 votes closer than it was four years ago. so we look at key indicators like north carolina, florida, and even today in cuyahoga county in ohio, where democratic turnout is down, between about 2% and 5%. the numbers are still moving around but democratic turnout is down in cuyahoga. we are looking at the swing states and feel very good with
where we are. >> cuyahoga county is where cleveland is. usually a democratic stronghold. you agree you need north carolina, ohio and florida. if you lose one it's over, right? >> these are three core battleground states. we feel very good about where we are in early voting and where actual voting is today. all the indicators are coming back positive. we obviously want to win these states. there are other scenarios, if we don't win one of these we look at michigan. feel very good. colorado. and pennsylvania. we are closing strong. >> donald trump said this morning in a phone interview about the election results, i am quoting him now, he said who knows what happens ultimately. does trump have some doubts about his chances for a win tonight? mr. trump is confident he'll win tonight. we feel good about the race. we are the ones who are closing strong. a lot of it is the message, wolf. the positivity. the fact that he's giving people something to vote for. we're talking about the trade
message. we're talking about repealing and replacing obamacare. we're talking about going into african-american communities saying we are going to present an urban renewell pl-- renewal plan to help improve schools. these are tangible, specific things that we're seeing we can go do on the trump-pence ticket and not things hillary clinton is able to offer. >> let me ask you one final question. your campaign filed a lawsuit in nevada last night over early voting alleging a voting station was kept open two hours longer than it should have been kept open. your request today was denied. what they said was the people had gotten in line on time. the lines were so long, they let them vote if they were in line on time. what's wrong with that? why did you file this legal challenge? >> the lawsuit was about making sure that the election officials were preserving and securing the ballots that were cast that day.
the judge made the ruling because they said they were already preserving and securing them. there wasn't a disagreement about what we were trying to accomplish. to us that was a win. we feel good about it and we'll continue to monitor elections around the country the rest of the day. >> jason miller of the trump campaign. thanks very much for joining us. >> thank you, wolf. much more ahead this hour. and throughout this historic election night. at this hour voters across the dunt are still heading to the polls in huge numbers after work, after classes, taking their places in long lines to cast their ballots. more exit polling results coming up as well. [ sighs ] [ rumbling ]
take a look at this. getting some live drone video from just outside pittsburgh in what appears to be trump country. very long voting lines there. people said to be waiting -- get this -- two hours to cast ballots. heavy turnout there and indeed heavy turnout across the country. kyung lah is in las vegas. big turnout there? >> reporter: turnout happened in early voting. this is a state where about two-thirds of the voters do vote early. that ended on friday.
i am standing, wolf, in the busiest polling place, what should be the busiest polling place in the biggest county in nevada. and take a look. it's a little bit quiet. don't read too much into this the head of this polling place says. it has been like this quite a bit of the day. the voting machines. so many of them waiting for people to show up. this is the story of nevada. early voting has been so successful. i want to give you a look here too, wolf. if you can swing around. i'll walk this way. the friendly faces you see over here are election observers. they are keeping an eye for anything representing both sides, both campaigns, wolf. >> good thing about early voting is that they usually release those numbers very quickly on this night. kyung lah in las vegas. we've got some more fresh exit polling coming in right now. back to our political director
david chalian. what are you seeing in the exit poll results? >> i want to washington, d.ccau. these are preliminary results. we're looking at the racial makeup of the electorate. 70% of voters voting today white. 12% african-american, 11% latino, 4% asian. so how does this compare to four years ago? the white vote has ticked down a little bit. four years ago 72% white electorate and 10% latino. that's ticked up a notch. there is not a dramatic shift in the overall racial makeup of the electorate nationwide. these are preliminary election results. we also wanted to get the motivation behind why people are voting for their candidate. take a look at this. 42% of voters today tell us they are voting for the candidate that they are voting for because they strongly favor them.
with all the negativity in this campaign, this is a bit of a surprise to me. i thought maybe this would be higher. only 25% of voters today say they're making their choice because they dislike the opponent. with these negatives really high on both trump and clinton, two very unliked candidates, i thought maybe more people would be voting for their opponents. but no. a plurality of people out there, 42%. say they're voting today strongly in favor of the person they're voting for. wolf. >> what you say, david, is these numbers will change as more exit polling results come in. is that right? >> that's right. more interviews are being conducted. certainly these numbers are more about east coast interviews. it has interviews from across the nation. throughout the night you can go across the time zones of the country and more and more will be feeding in throughout the night. >> we'll be checking back with you often. david. anderson, back to you. back with the panel. bakari sellers. it's interesting that only 20-some odd percent is voting because of who the opponent is
given the high dislikes for both candidates. >> a lotted of the narratives that we're talking about in this race from the beginning are being shattered. people were talking about this being a low turnout race because both candidates were so disliked. and we're going to see turnout breaking all records. you can attribute that to the ground game and the direct outreach to minorities of hillary clinton and i think you can direct it to donald trump's populism on steroids, what i like to call it, talking about feeling the pain of working class voters in places like ohio and pennsylvania. that will be the test tonight. one of the numbers that stuck out where the participation of minority voters in this election. i think that you actually have to actake away from the nationa sample and begin to look at numbers in the states like north carolina and florida. as we start to see the numbers come out 7:30, 8:00 from florida you'll start to see the impact of voters of color on this race. that may not bode well for donald trump. >> andre, what stands you for you? >> if you look at the money that was spent on this.
donald trump, unconventional candidate, come in and has been able to run against almost aerestablishment. -- every establishment. it shows there is a new way to campaign in this country. and it will be interesting to see -- i would like to see, per vote, when all is said and done, what the democrats had to spend per vote to get their voters out versus what the republicans had to spend. >> if in the final analysis, maria, if hillary clinton wins, isn't that really all that matters? >> i was going to interject and say, except for if hillary clinton wins none of that will matter. >> it doesn't mean you don't study it to move forward. >> that's a good point. >> what i would say is, then, what will be underscored is how smart an investment the hillary clinton campaign was from day one. the kind of ground game that she has put together, the kind of infrastructure that we are now seeing that is pulling out every single one of the demographics that support her. >> if hillary clinton loses and donald trump wins, there will be a whole new analysis, to andre's point of how campaigns are run
in the future because it's been run for much less than what the democrats spent. >> it will mean the people whole washington again instead of special interest. >> let's not go that far. >> you'll see massive turnout across the country. i think that's a good thing for the country. the turnout in new hampshire. if you look at the totals in 2012, many towns have exceeded or reached the totals already from 2012. people before 5:00 tonight have gone and voted with a higher level of participation than they did in the entire 2012 election. that's a great thing. >> when you look back and donald trump has a lot to do with this. the people watching the primary debates. unprecedented. from the get-go people have been engaged in this election. >> that's also why you can tell a lot about this race early on by the east coast. you have virginia, new hampshire, north carolina, florida. if you look at florida and the dynamics of this race, if donald trump does not win florida,
that's game, set, match. that's it. there aren't many paths that he can get to the white house that don't include him having an inside strait. >> polls close at 7:30? >> some are at 8:00 through the panhand panhandle. you'll have the votes come out periodically throughout the night and we'll be able to see what's going on pretty early. >> in past elections it's been like, what, 11:30 or so that we've called races? >> the a.p. usually calls it. >> 2000 went a little longer. >> less than 30 minutes away from the first polls closing on this historic election day, no matter how you look at it. stay with us throughout the night. our coverage continues in just a moment. new bikes aren't selling guys...
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we're watching late crowds of voters in pennsylvania. our cnn drone is flying over a polling place near pittsburgh. we're live in many of the crucial battleground states right now that are so critical in determining who will win the white house. we're back with a special election night edition of "the situation room". we're counting down to the first results in the presidential race. votes will start coming in to the cnn election center minutes from now from indiana and kentucky, where some polling places close early. right now we're getting more insights from our exit poll results. let's go back to david chalian. what else are you learning? >> we're looking at the barack obama factor in tonight's election. you saw him campaigning hard for hillary clinton. his approval rating across the country tonight in the exit polls. this is about what we had seen in pre-election polling.
it seems to be bearing out among the electorate tonight. we asked do you want to continue barack obama's policies or not. those who want to continue barack obama's policies or want more liberal policies add up to about 47% of the electorate. 46% say they want more conservative policies. clearly a divided country in terms of president obama's policies. we asked about the feelings of the federal government. i don't think this will surprise anyone paying attention to this election, wolf. take a look at this. dissatisfied, 46% of voters today with the federal government. add 23% of angry voters. take a look at that. that is 69% of voters voting today are either dissatisfied or angry with the federal government. that is what both of these candidates have been trying to respond to throughout this election, wolf. >> we're going to get more numbers from you shortly, david. thanks very much. jake and dana with us.
what do the numbers say to you, jake? >> they suggest -- if they hold up, these are earlyish exit poll numbers. this could be a long night and a competitive race. if a lot of people feel resentful of washington, that's isn't. 54% supporting president obama, approving of the job he's done is also significant. it shows what we've said all along. this could be a very competitive race. >> the fact that barack obama's approval rating is well above 50% is very telling. it is so different from what we have seen in recent history with a president on their way out, republican or democrat. it is a reminder of why hillary clinton has done something unusual, which is embrace a two-term president, and effectively run on a third term. >> there are a lot of angry voters based on these numbers out there that, as you say, that seems to bode relatively well for donald trump. >> it would. that's the message he has been driving home since the moment he came down the escalator in the
summer of 2015. the government is broken. it's not working for you when it comes to trade deals. it's not working for you when it comes to immigration or terrorism. as he has been saying the last few weeks, it's time to drain the swamp of washington, d.c. that has been a very powerful message. and obviously it's taken root in the minds of a lot of voters. >> only 15 minutes away, dana, or so from the first actual votes coming in. exit poll numbers are important. they give us a clue, an indication. sometimes they're right. sometimes not so right. votes obviously count. >> that's the whole ball game. no question about it. it is going to be so fascinating to see, as the boards come in, as you start to read them, whether or not what we've been looking at, whether it is the divide in terms of the way voters want this country to go or the divide with regard to these two candidates bear out in how we see these states come out. >> let's go over to anderson for some analysis. kirsten, as we look at, again, more of the exit polls. it's very early in the evening. a reminder how divided this
nation is. essentially split evenly on whether they want policies akin to president obama's or more liberal, or the compelete opposite. >> angry. you have a very unhappy electorate right now. if you look at the breakdown -- we always have to remember there were a lot of early voters, so the composition may be a little different when you add that in. but it doesn't look that different from the composition in 2012. these are early numbers. we have to wait and see. right now we have white voters, about two points down, black voters two points down. hispanic up one and asian up one. it will be interesting to see as the night goes on how it changes and how the overall composition once we factor everything together. >> in early voting, certainly in a state like florida, we've seen a larger turnout of loiatino voters. not just sort of traditional cuban voters. we have much more latino
population now from south america and puerto rico. >> puerto rico. dominican republic. you see a change in terms of the asian vote in places like north carolina. you see a voting surge there as well, with latinos. and all across the south. i mean, that -- those two voting blocs are the fastest-growing voting blocs. historically they haven't had the turnout numbers that african-americans have had, or -- or whites have had. i mean, this is going to be the most diverse electorate that america has ever seen, and we have in donald trump a candidate that hasn't always known how to reach out to those groups. and in many ways that is repelled them. i think the fact that they're showing up in such numbers certainly speaks to donald trump. and it also, i think, speaks to a lot of these grass-roots organizations across the country like voter latino who have been registering these groups in droves. >> it also speaks to the where the future of the country is going. >> the future is here already. >> that will be the biggest question answered tonight, or
early tomorrow, or hopefully not in weeks. but, you know, the rationale behind a lot of the republican consternation over trump, people who are not voting for trump, was two things. one, it's kind of a bad look for conservatives, as the kid would say. two, that he wasn't going to be electable in a general because of the changing demography of the country. that will bear out. we will find out if that's actually true tonight. but it's funny. when you go back -- i went back through some of the polling in the republican primary about whether voters prioritized electability. they really didn't. if they had, we would have marco rubio or john kasich as the nominee. so this issue, this angst over republicans putting up an electable candidate might have really just been from strategists and analysts, because clearly it wasn't that important to the electorate. >> david. >> when bill clinton ran for presidency in 1992, 88% of the
electorate was caucasian white. hillary clinton runs, it's 70%. the numbers are coming down, down and down. and that's why, for both parties, you know, appealing to the minority vote matters. i think one of the questions -- if donald trump loses -- he may win. these numbers suggest he could still win this thing. if he loses, there is going to be a big question about the republican party relationship, especially to latinos. i would point out that california used to be a purple state. california -- republicans could win california at the presidential level. in the 1990s, the republicans put a proposition out there -- proposition 187, it stuck a stick right in the eyes of latinos. and latinos went over to the democratic side. and california has been a blue state ever since. it went off the board. if that happens nationwide, the republicans will fracture as a party. >> so much talk of the autopsy done in 2012. if donald trump doesn't win tonight there will be autopsies
of autopsies. >> they could just release the same autopsy. >> one isn't even needed. it will be clear. it will be because the results of the autopsy were completely overlooked. >> there wasn't a true conservative candidate. there's that argument. >> that's the thing. donald trump might do better than mitt romney. he will win ohio possibly, iowa possibly. he could, a, just win the whole thing on this strategy that was really about white voters, right? >> but to lose to a candidate in hillary clinton who has 54% disapproval rating going into the election. if you still lose you have to do some soul searching. >> with the republicans you have to do some soul searching anyway. a lot of republicans that wanted somebody talking about things that republicans for too long have talked about but hadn't done and that's reforming washington. that's getting out -- the
republicans allowed the budget to be spent over a trillion dollars last year. they haven't demonstrated what being a conservative is. a lot of people saying the republicans haven't shown anything than the democrats. that's why donald trump was successful this year. there are problems within the party itself with identity. >> one of the things you'll see tonight -- nia brought this up. hillary clinton will have a more difficult time winning a state like ohio, iowa, where she's going to fare much better than people think in a state like florida. north carolina, in the deep south, actually turning purplish blue. for a long period of time, you're going to be able to put iowa and ohio in the red category and we're getting to the point where you can put florida and north carolina in the blue category. that shows the shifting of demographics in this country. i've sat here many times with you, anderson and said donald trump's number one problem -- the thing that will beat donald trump in november is demographics. it was true when he was nominated and it's very true now. unless the republican party adapts, there was a picture
taken -- in south carolina during the south carolina primary of trey gowdy, marco rubio, scott and ni can k. i haley. next day, they were beat by 20 points. the republican party a real problem of how it wants to look in the future. >> corey, where are you tonight? what other states are you looking for, for that path to 270? >> the path that most people agree is best for donald trump, you have to win florida, including north carolina, as you know. mitt romney went into north carolina down 450,000 votes on election day and came out ahead of barack obama by 77,000. donald trump's numbers are much better than that. state of new hampshire there. you look at the battleground states in play, donald trump will win the state of ohio.
he is going to win iowa. it's a foregone conclusion. barack obama wanted to go there. he was told not to go there. they are so concerned about the state of michigan that barack obama was in michigan on the eve of the election making sure that state stays blue. we'll see if that happens. african-american turnout in detroit is 50% of what it was four years ago. we do know that from early polling. of course we know that. blue collar voters are exactly in line with donald trump because they've been hammered by bad trade deals, which hillary clinton has called the gold standard. democrats are campaigning in michigan. that is a state that's a great opportunity for donald trump. you look at colorado where he has a 16,000 vote lead going into election day. that's unheard of for a republican. >> maria, when you hear cory's idea of where the path is, do you buy it? >> sure, anything is possible. it's still very narrow, very steep and riddled with thickets,
thorns and holes that donald trump himself dug, the first one being if he loses tonight, he will have started that loss the minute that he came down that escalator after he called mexican immigrants rapists, criminals and drug lords. there is an exit poll, election eve poll that latino decision does, primary polling for hispanics. they did it last night. 5,000 hispanics. they do it bilingually. they said the number one issue for latinos that they are going to come out and vote on is immigration. that is almost unheard of. normally it's jobs and the economy. this is the discussion on immigration has impacted -- >> in 2008 and both president mccain and president romney decided they were going to bet ons like michigan and pennsylvania in some hope that african-american voters simply were not going to come out and be able to swell white vote in certain parts. that is the same gamble that
donald trump is taking tonight. this hope that somehow everybody in detroit is just going to sit at home. it's this hope that everybody in cuyahoga county in ohio is going to stay home or everybody in philadelphia is going to stay home. it does not work that way. every single cycle the republican party goes after pennsylvania, michigan and wisconsin as if they're their unicorn. it hasn't worked for president mccain or president romney. >> anderson, thanks very much. john we're here at the magic wall. tell us what hillary clinton is looking for tonight, hoping for, what donald trump is hoping for. work it out for us. >> first and foremost, it's finally here. little more than an hour, we'll start to fill this in. first polls close an hour or so. new hampshire is already red. that's voting last night. some states fill in early in the night filling in by who is leading, not who wins. let's go back in time and look at 2012 map. you just heard the panel. they're expecting a close, competitive race f you're
hillary clinton, what are you looking for? number one, protect bluts. protect michigan, pennsylvania. number two, early on, let's go through what happens. let me take this off. one thing i'll look early on for hillary clinton, see this little tiny county in western indiana? likely to vote republican tonight. it's a republican state, home of donald trump's rung mate. it says 49-49. it's only been wrong twice in the last 100 years, consecutive streak. quirky counties. i'll watch that to see who the next president is going to be, hillary clinton or donald trump. as the votes start to come in, one of the early states that will come in is virginia. clinton is favored here, home state of her running mate. even if she's ahead in virginia, wolf, this will tell us a lot about what's happening in competitive states like neighboring north carolina. results start to come in here. number one, how is donald trump doing out here? her team will be looking at how much is donald trump running it up in the small rural counties?
you have them here in virginia. you have them in ohio, pennsylvania, north carolina. number two, virginia, close races are settled right up here in the washington, d.c. area suburbs, prince william county. reliably republican. look how much president obama won it by four years ago. republican voters have become democratic voters. college educated white voters are key in virginia, pennsylvania, especially philly suburbs, key in columbus suburbs. this will be our first laboratory of those voters and one of the biggest population growths here, latinos. we expect them to have a big imprint on tonight's election. our first indication will be right here. then you'll look down the coast. obviously, hillary clinton's strategy the last few days has been a blocking strategy. north carolina will become key to us all night long. president obama won it in 2008. mitt romney took it back in 2012. one of the most contested states
in america. one thing we'll look for here, what percentage of the white vote does hillary clinton get? president obama got 35% of the white vote. he carried the state. just barely. look at that. just barely. percentage of the white vote fell to 31% four years ago and he lost the state. battleground within the battleground, wade county. this is where raleigh is. significant african-american population here that hillary clinton must turn out. a lot of that was done in early voting. look at the margin here. 55-44. president obama wins this county by 11 points, wolf, but he lost the state just narrowly. 2008 when he won it, he won it by 15 points. here, you're looking at african-american turnout and college educated white voters. >> if you're donald trump, what are you looking at right now and what do you want to do if you're donald trump? >> let's start right here. you want to win this. bakari was just talking about this as the unicorn. george w. bush wanted this very
badly. republicans always look at pennsylvania. look at all that red. why can't i win this state? this is probably key to donald trump. donald trump has to win florida. he probably has to win north carolina. 29 electoral votes in florida, 15 in north carolina. he has to turn -- let's go back to the winning map for the democrats. this is eight years ago. here is the winning map for the democrats four years ago. if donald trump is going to win, yes, he has to keep all these reds from romney but has to turn something big blue. this would be 29. this would be 20. this would be 16. donald trump is looking number one, that's a must. if he gets that, then he needs a big blue to leap frog. cory's home state of new hampshire. donald trump's path is more complicated. what is he going to look for within these states? 8:00 hour is pennsylvania. we'll get some clues in the 7:00 hour. what are the margins in these small, rural counties? is donald trump running it up?
less than one percent of the population but needs to run it up even more, white working class voters coming out to vote. what is he doing in these blue areas? he went to scranton on purpose. can this be a smaller margin for donald trump here? if it is, he's in play in pennsylvania. wolf, anderson? >> thank you very much, john. we're about to get the first results of the 2016 presidential race. >> this election night will be historic no matter who wins. right now from coast to coast across presidential battlegrounds, it's all coming down to this night and this choice in a history-making, rule breaking, jaw dropping campaign. >> can we trust her with our security? she is disqualified. >> he just spends all of his time deny grading, criticizing ameri america. >> hillary clinton seeking to break the ultimate glass ceiling. >> when any