tv Fareed Zakaria GPS CNN December 17, 2017 7:00am-8:00am PST
now we're talking! it gets you wifi here, here, and here. it even lets you take a time out. no! no! yes! yes, indeed. amazing speed, coverage and control. all with an xfi gateway. find your awesome, and change the way you wifi. this is gps, the global public square. welcome from the united states and around the world. we begin with my take on the tax bill. >> we want to give you, the american people, a giant tax cut for christmas. >> we'll follow that up with a tour around the world, starting in russia, with president putin's press conference. he went on and on and on for
almost four hours. there is much to discuss. also, iraq declares victory over isis. all that, with a terrific panel. also, steve bannon's candidate loses the race for alabama senate seat. is the poll of populism fading in america? how is it doing on the other side of the atlantic? we'll take a look. then you heard all the horror stories of women in the workplace. we'll tell you why they're important for a whole different reason, economic reason. i'll explain. and -- >> the stock market is at an all-time high. >> the dow, s&p and nasdaq keep hitting record highs. is this a trump boom or is it a trump bubble ready to burst? tw top experts, morgan stanley
and goldman sachs will debate. first here's my take. if the republican tax plan passes congress, it will mark a watershed for the united states. the medium and long-term effects of the plan are clear. a massive drop in public investment, which will come on the heels of decades of declining spending as a percentage of gdp on infrastructure, scientific research, skills training and core government agencies. the united states cannot coast on passed legislation forever. and we are ushering in a bleak future. it is expected to add at least $1 trillion to the national debt over the next ten years and many experts believe that the real loss to federal revenues will be much higher. we can expect big spending cuts in the near future, which would happen on top of an already dire
situation. as the brookings institution points out, combined public investment, by federal, state and local governments, is at the lowest point in six decades, relative to gdp. the united states is at a breaking point. in august, the world bank looked at 50 countries and found that america will have the largest unmet infrastructure needs over the next two decades. look in any direction. according to the american road and transport builders association, the united states has almost 56,000 structurally deficient bridges, about 1,900 of which are on interstate highways and all of these are crossed 185 million times a day. there is no better indication of the u.s. government's myopia than the decline in funding for research. research and development top ten percent of the national budget in the mid 1960s.
it is now under 4%. this is happening in an environment where other countries, from south korea, germany to china, are ramping up investment in these areas. a new study finds that china is on track to surpass the u.s. as the world leader in biomedical research spending. i came to america in the 1980s, i was struck by how well the american government functioned. i would hear complaints about the irs or faa i would reply have you ever seen how baddy these agencies work in other countries? even compared to france and italy, many of the key offices were professional and competent. agencies like the irs are now thread bar threadbare. it is hamstrung by an infisht
budget and has had to cancel several much-needed ittests. the list goes on and on. are there genuine problems beyond underfunding ♪ cost of building infrastructure in america is astr astronomical. focused america's tension, creating a bipartisan urgency to get things done. ironically at a time now when competition is far more fierce, when other countries have surpassed the united states in many of these areas, america has fallen into extreme partisanship and embraced a no-nothing libertarianism that is starving the country of the essential investments it need force future growth. those who vote for this tax bill possibly the worst piece of major legislation in a generation, will live in infamy as the country slow breaks down. for more, go to cnn.com/fareed
and read my "washington post" column this week. and let's get started. >> one of the most highly anticipated foreign affairs is russian president puten's news conference. it was a classic putin spectacle, lasting right around four hours. during that time, he answered dozens of questions. there was even a question about gps. alas, it wasn't our gps but the legality of putting a gps tracker on a cow. we'll talk about the substance of a press conference and much more with today's terrific panel. susan glasser, politico, former bureau chief for "the washington post" and co-author of "kremlin rising." luke harding is a guardian
foreign correspondent, new book called "collusion: secret meetings, dirty money and how russia helped donald trump win." and former foreign secretary of the united kingdom, president and ceo of the international rescue committee has a terrific new book out called "rescue: refugees and the politic cancal crisis of our time." susan, let me start with you. what struck you most about the conference? certainly to me, the references to trump personally and the democrats were pretty unusual. >> well, i think they were extraordinarily unusual. vladimir putin often talks about the press in the year-end conferences to bash them or accuse the united states of encircling russia. he definitely has not used it as a platform in the past for praising the president of the united states for the good performance of the american stock market. and it was so directly on theme with the kind of message that donald trump is usually tell in
us about himself. it was as if they had coordinated. >> luke, and then trump's phone call back to him. it all -- it felt bizarre, as if this was a kind of personal bond and very partisan one. putin attacked the democrats. >> yes. this is one of the great mysteries of the 21st century, why is donald trump so nice to vladimir putin, chatting on the phone, agreeing on everything when he's so rude about practically every other world leader, including theresa may and great brit sban doesn't like angela merkel. it's curious. i think the answer is firstly that putin has leverage over donald trump. i really think that's the case. and, secondly, i think he has what you might call psychological mastery, as susan was saying. he says the kind of things that donald trump wants to hear. he says these attacks from inside america are an attempt to
delegitimize donald trump. and, of course, that's what trump himself thinks. >> david, do you recall a head of state taking entry into a domestic dispute in quite the same way? putin really attacked the democrats, said this an attempt to delegitimize trump, he has done a great job, brought the stock market up. >> i can't recall the chief booster -- chief international booster of a u.s. president being a country that has been trying to destabilize its democratic institutions. one thing occurred to me. i wonder how successful vladimir putin really thinks his play has been. obviously, he has caused a lot of instability. remember, if we had been meeting a year ago, we would have said are the russian sanctions really going to carry on? where is american opinion going to be on the russia sanctions? will congress stand up for that? if you look at the end of the year, he hasn't had sanctions relief, one of the top things he was looking for at a more specific level than the general
undermining of western democracy. >> susan, he has managed to get a certain kind of breathing space because trump is so involved in other things and trump is withdrawing america's role in the world, which does give russia more scope. did you get that feeling from the conference? >> absolutely. look, he is already face iing, foregone conclusion in march. he clearly is trying to pay the leader and peace maker in the middle east now, ratifying the victory of his proxy bashir al assad in syria. same time in washington you have this incredible spectacle of basically donald trump's administration pursuing one russia policy and the president of the united states basically not being on board with it. >> luke, let me give you a
chance. have you this book out where you believe that the leverage that putin has over trump is real. what is the strongest case you would make about that collusion, as you describe it in your book? >> i think it's financial. i think look robert mueller is looking actively about what deals he did with yaush, especially after he was broke. compromising material, alleged buggings of what may have happened during trump's moscow visit in 2013. i think there's a basic question of the sort of russian influence on the trump team. wherever you look, whether it's rex tillerson, u.s. secretary of state, who has an order of friendship from vladimir putin or michael flynn. he has taking money out of the table from russian interests. it seems as if trump's cabinet
was put together from moscow and we still haven't seen a single occasion when trump has criticized russia or russia foreign policy or putin personally. i can confidently predict we will not see that. >> that is the central prediction. it would be so easy to dispel these rumors. anyway, we have to take a break. we'll switch courses somewhat. iraq declares victory over isis. is it real? what's happening in the middle east? patrick woke up with back pain.
but he has work to do. so he took aleve. if he'd taken tylenol, he'd be stopping for more pills right now. only aleve has the strength to stop tough pain for up to 12 hours with just one pill. aleve. all day strong. was supposed to be a wake reup call for our government?sh people all across the country lost their savings,
their pensions and their jobs. i'm tom steyer and it turned out that the system that had benefited people like me who are well off, was, in fact, stacked against everyone else. it's why i left my investment firm and resolved to use my savings for the public good. but here we are nine years later and this president and the republican congress are making a bad situation even worse. they won't tell you that their so called "tax reform" plan is really for the wealthy and big corporations, while hurting the middle class. it blows up the deficit and that means fewer investments in education, health care and job creation. it's up to all of us to stand up to this president. not just for impeachable offenses, but also to demand a country where everyone has a real chance to succeed. join us. your voice matters.
what plots they unfold. but only in my mind. over 50% of people with parkinson's will experience hallucinations or delusions during the course of their disease. and these can worsen over time, making things even more challenging. but there are advances that have led to treatment options that can help. if someone you love has parkinson's and is experiencing hallucinations or delusions, talk to your parkinson's specialist. because there's more to parkinson's. my visitors should be the ones i want to see. learn more at moretoparkinsons.com
we are back with susan glasser, luke harding and david milliband. david, two years ago, we were all obsessed with the idea that isis was taking over the world, syria was falling apart. the situation seemed pretty bleak, particularly with regard to isis. is it fair to say, as the iraqi prime minister now says, that isis has been defeated? it is essentially destroyed? >> i think it's been defeated militarily, but it hasn't yet been defeated politically and ideologically. the fight for the soul and the allegiance of sunni communities across the middle east is very much alive. we've got people on the ground in syria, in iraq, across the region and there's no doubt that the danger of isis 2.0, 3.0 remains because although there's been a significant degrading of its military capacity, although its ability to occupy parts of iraq has been ended, it remains a force that has the ability to
project power and military power in a dangerous way. >> your book is about refugees and the responsibility we should all feel around the world. do you get the feeling 2018 is going to see a let-up in the extraordinary flows of refugees we've seen the last few years? >> i wish. the trends are driving the refugee crisis, crisis of diplomacy, which means wars are burning for longer. the extraordinary tumult within the islamic world. the weakness of the international system. u.n. and other institutions weaker, the fragmentation in the security council, all those trends point to long-term displacement. one thing that's striking is not just humanitarian crisis. untend untended crises then lead to -- boiling point of refugees in jordan.
2018 portends real danger that the root of these crises won't be addressed. but also that the destabilization from these humanitarian crises continues. >> susan, one thing that putin has said is that he won in syria. he's quite -- he was boasting about that. is that a fair assessment, do you think? >> i also heard that from many people around the region who believe that vladimir putin won. he turned his attention to dictating the terms of the piece. i thought it was an incredible moment a few weeks back when he hosted assad, who came out of syria, for one of the only times in the civil war, came to sochi to talk to peace terms, if you will, with vladimir putin. he had a phone call them with donald trump, right before american thanksgiving. it seems to me that this is a clear cut example of russia and putin directly taking on a roll
that in the past would have defaulted to the united states. >> luke, do you see putin as taking advantage of -- how would you describe it? american distraction or lack of strategy in the middle east? >> yeah. i mean, i think putin, over the last 17 or 18 years, has been on a great patriotic project to make russia great again if you like. that's gone through several faces. sometimes less successfully. sometimes more successfully. we've seen wars in georgia and we've seen putin grab crimea. now the international stage is largely free for him to do pretty much as he wishes. this has been his goal for so long, to have russia as a kind of equal pull to the u.s. they want a multi-polar world and he has pretty much got that now and is taking advantage of
donald trump's internal weakness. >> david, he has been in power now for 18 years. he will be in power for another six, at least. you've conducted diplomacy at the highest levels. it matters when you have that much experience. this guy has been around the block several times when there's no -- nobody else is running a major country who has been around for 18 years. >> not just the 18 years he has been but the six years coming. i think it's important to see the russia/china relationship, not just the russia/america relationship. we look at the bilateral. of course, this is the year, 2017, in which president xi jinping committed that china would be the status quo power. he went to davos. he said i want to boost the multi-lateral institutions and i'm looking next year to see how does the russian leader with six years ahead of him, how does the chinese leader with at least five, many people think 15 years ahead of him, what relationship do they have? it's a marriage of convenience
at the moment. and rising china will find russia a pain in the same way that a challenged america finds russia a pain. >> it really is a whole new world with all these countries trying to search for the influence that the united states, in a sense, has seeded. thank you very much. david milband, luke harding, susan glasser. why all the mistreatment of women in the workplace we've been hearing about recently is not just bad legally, morally, ethically, but could be hurting the united states economically. i'll explain when we come back. keyboard clacking ]
now for our what in the world segment. as more and more allegations of sexual harassment and misconduct come to light, the united states, in particular, is beginning to have important conversations about what effect these incidents have had on women in the workforce. and it turns out that this is actually a conversation that is crucial not simply for reasons of fairness and morality but also for economic productivity according to a new report out by standard & poor's, women who leave the workforce or never enter it have cost the united states greatly. s&p says the u.s. economy would be $1.6 trillion bigger today if women in america entered and stayed in the workforce at the same rate women in norway have. what does that mean? if we look at the oecd numbers for labor force participation
rate of women in norway and the united states, we can see that the two countries had essentially the same percentage of working age women in their labor forces in 1972. but after that, norway's percentage of women working grew much faster than america's and sayed much higher. indeed the past two decades, american women have gradually been staying at home as the country's female participation rate dropped by nearly three percentage points. during the same time period, female workforce participation rate in countries like estonia, france and canada, were up by more than six percentage points. so, why is america lagging behind? the study's author told gps there are many reasons for male gender bias to tax disincentives. and, of course, there's reasons
that have nothing to do with gender. but the study's authors also note that the united states remains the only country with no legally mandated paid maternity or parental leave. s&p highlights countries like sweden, who offer subsidize daycare, generous child care support and workplace nextability. if the united states had implemented similar policies, according to a paper cited in the report, in 2010 it could have been six to eight percentage points than it was. and work more hours, get promoted to higher levels, all of which would help narrow america's pay gap between women and men. bureau of statistics predicts downward trend of women in the workforce will continue for the next decade. while not downward, another trend that remains too low is
women's participation in the sciences. countries are desperately looking for women to fill stem jobs and just can't find them. only 14% of women age 25 to 64 in the u.s. have studied a stem field to begin with, a recent oecd report shows. next year 2.4 million stem jobs will go unfilled, according to the smithsonian science education center. so the solution to america's growth problems might be simpler than we think. women, and particularly women in stem. remember, america's super sized growth that continued for many decades after world war ii was due, in no small part, to demographics. the nation highway relatively high birth rate. it was a nation that was highly attractive to immigrants. it was a relatively young nation. but today, america's population is growing at a slower pace. the best path forward would be to better utilize the people who
are already here. get more women into the workforce and then sit back and watch the economy boom. next on "gps" what do alabama's new senator-elect doug jones and manuel macron have in common? ♪ if you have moderate to severe plaque psoriasis,... ...isn't it time to let the real you shine through? maybe it's time for otezla (apremilast). otezla is not an injection or a cream. it's a pill that treats plaque psoriasis differently. with otezla, 75% clearer skin is achievable after just 4 months,... ...with reduced redness,... ...thickness, and scaliness of plaques. and the otezla prescribing information has... ...no requirement for routine lab monitoring. don't use if you're allergic to otezla.
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bannon and his former boss, president trump, backed roy moore, conservative christian candidate, who has been accused of several women of pursuing sexual relationships with them when they were teenagers. doug jones will be the first senator from that party to represent alabama in some 25 years. so, have we hit peak populism? in america or elsewhere? joining me are the editor in chief of "the economist," joining us from london and david fromme in washington today, senior editor at "the atlantic." trump-ocracy comes out in january. can we make too much of this losses? roy moore was, as i said, a very bad candidate. and yet he is within a point of winning. >> roy moore, who is 70 years old, is a backward looking
candidate. overwhelming issues were at the place of evangelical religion in society and restoring an oppressive sexual morality that he may not have practiced but talked a lot about. >> does it tell you that the trump coalition is waning in some way or is it still strong and this was just a bad test case? >> donald trump's own personal popularity is obviously an issue. in some exit polls trump was showing himself at 48% approval rating in alabama, one of the most conservative states in the country. he is obviously dragging down his own fit for performance. the power of the issues donald trump discovered, both in this country and in europe, those issues do seem still to have a lot of power. we saw, for example, the performance of the far right parties in the german election and although populists were defeated in france they're doing better than they were 15, 20 years ago. >> when you look at this from
europe, do you think that those issues that david fromme talked about -- after all, it is immigration that is at the heart of this right-wing populism in europe. is that still strong? has it peaked? is it waning? how would you describe it? >> that's a really good question, have we hit peaked populism? people like to ask themselves continuously on both sides of the atlantic. a peculiarly awful candidate. i would caution about reading too much into the relative quiet we've seen in europe. david's absolutely right that if, indeed, the far right party did remarkably well. manuel macron's victory in france and his approval ratings are rising. i think it's been a plateauing perhaps this year. worth remembering that this is economic growth on both sides of the atlantic, the economy issing to well.
people's real incomes are getting better. those underlying cultural questions are still there. i think of this as a multi-year phenomenon and it's certainly not going away. >> zanny, one thing you talked about, macron's approval ratings have gone economic reforms, some bitter medicine. what do you attribute that to? >> i think macron -- history will look back and he will be deemed to be one of the most extraordinary figures in europe right now. now, he may be a complete failure. he may not end up being able to achieve what he has laid out. he came from nowhere,s ayou know. he basically broke out the traditional party structure in france, somewhat arrogant. poll ratings plunged. as you say, he has brought that back now. i think people are, to some degree, buying into his sort of
infectious confidence about france and about france's future. it's remarkable when you go from london where i live, to paris -- for many years you go from a city that prided itself on the world's global capital to a sneaky backwater in paris. it seems completely different right now. people feel france is sort of awakening again and that's in large part due to macron. >> david fromme, is there a lesson from macron for centrist establishment candidates? is there something we can learn? >> i think there are two things you can learn. macron has been a voice for -- neo liberal has been a bad term for a long time. he is promising, at least, market opening economies, measures in france, in order to deal with the problem of congress youth unemployment just as the great problem in the united states is you can get work. you can't get paid. especially in places like
france, young people can't even get work. they do collect pay of various kinds. he has also shown a very tough face on immigration and he has been willing to steal the issues. go a certain measure to they talk about things people do care about, irresponsibly, provocatively, in ways laden with all kinds of ugly feelings but seize on real issues. the challenge for responsible candidates is to say how far can you go? the analogy i keep invoking is the way politicians of the center right in europe dealt with the challenge from communism. they built social insurance networks to take the communist supporters away from them. >> zanny? >> david is absolutely right. macron, in some ways, himself, is a populist.
he has really got an agenda, which in its substance is very, very different to donald trump's. but in the sense that he wants to make europe great again, whether macron is a bit like teddy roosevelt. back a century ago, a man who wraps himself in greatness. in macron's case there's european greatness. i think there might be something to that. >> he is an outsider. different kind of populist to beat populism. thank you both very much. fascinating conversation. >> next on gps, dow jones industrial average set multiple new record high this is week. almost every asset class is booming right now. is it a trump boom or a trump bubble about to burst? great debail when we come back. if he'd taken tylenol, he'd be stopping for more pills right now. only aleve has the strength to stop tough pain
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you heard the word bubble here first. >> that was donald trump at an iowa rally two years ago in december of 2015. trump now feels very differently about the same elevated stock prices. they're, in fact, even higher. he tweeted in october, stock market hits another all-time high on friday. 5.3% up since election. fake news doesn't spend time on it. this news program is going to spend time on it. joining me now are two terrific expert experts from morgan stanley and goldman sachs. how do you describe the situation right now with markets
all over the world. >> this has been the weakest economic recovery and yet the strong e strongest boom market on record. relative to how poor the global economy has done. over the last year, it's been double charged a bit because the global economy has had its best year since the crisis ended in 2008. >> your still saying that the growth levels are -- don't support this kind of massive rise in stocks, bonds? >> exactly. one statistic here, which really concerns me, 30 years ago, the size of the global economy and the size of the financial markets across the world was about similar. today, the size of financial markets, stocks and bonds mainly, is 3 1/2 times larger than the size of the real economy. now for me, that really is the big risk. it's not the economy but the
overgrown size of financial markets across the world led by the u.s. >> abby, how do you see it? what do you think of the economy and the markets? >> i have a somewhat different view. in large part because it's important to say what was the starting point? and in 2009 share prices were extraordinarily depressed. if you look at evaluation models you basically say at the prices then in the markets, what was being priced in was another five to six years of severe recession. that didn't happen. when we take a look at value models, looking at earnings, cash flow and revenue, we would say the stock market is not cheap today but we don't think it's over priced. >> when you look at the markets' rise in the last six, seven months, we are taught is the market is meant to reflect economic fundamentals. what happens changed in the last six months that is producing this massive rise? >> two things. number one, before the election
in the united states, as it often does, the stock market pulled back a little bit. and we think that regardless of the election outcome, there would have been a noteworthy rise in share prices just because the election was over number one. number two, there has been a reacti reaction -- re-acceleration. >> final thought, richrichard, just stocks are up. almost all classes are up. >> that's the difference. historically when you had a bubble in the market you could see it, because there was one sector or one sort of asset class that was up, like stocks in 2000, real estate in 2007. the problem this time is that all asset classes are up simultaneously. that's never happened before, in
terms of the valuation. and the underpinning is low interest rates forever and lots of liquidity from the central banks. any disturbance in that equation and i think that we have a big negative feedback that comes to haunt the economy. and i feel that risk is there next year. central banks across the world will start withdrawing this liquidity that they have pumped in out there and this very wide gap between the economic xhi and stock markets, i think that runs a risk of basically closing in. >> i admire both of you for actually articulating very clearly what you think. we will, of course, have to have you back, about six months from now, to see where we are. thank you both very much. >> next on gps, tick tock, tick tock. still need to shop for gifts? i', but my car broke down
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and i am a senior public safety my namspecialist for pg&e. my job is to help educate our first responders on how to deal with natural gas and electric emergencies. everyday when we go to work we want everyone to work safely and come home safely. i live right here in auburn, i absolutely love this community. once i moved here i didn't want to live anywhere else. i love that people in this community are willing to come together to make a difference for other people's lives. together, we're building a better california.
the rise of right-wing populist parties has been discussion on this show. now we've mapped out their progress with fascinating precision t brings me to my question, on average, how much has the vote share of european right-wing populist parties have grown in legislative elections over the past 20 years? is it 50%, 80%, 130% or 220%? stay tuned and we'll tell you the correct answer. now for the last look. hanukkah is almost over. christmas is nearly upon us. in case you've been naughty and haven't shopped for those on
your list yet i thought i would give you some suggestions. consider it a gps top ten. we'll start with an author recommended by president obama right here on gps, "home ideas: a brief history of tomorrow, a fascinating look of how technology is changing what it means to be human." nigel hamilton's "commander in chief: fdr's battle with churchill 1933." this is the memoir ndr would have written, had he lived. complex concepts like quantum mechanics with grace and clarity. "hit makers: science of popularity in an age of distraction" tackles big questions like why did game of thrones take off? tina brown describes what it was like to live at the center of
the roaring '80s in new york city. fiction fans will love "the remains of the day bgs one of the best novels by a living author i have read. and for the political junkies out there "the retreat of western liberalism" is about the decline of the democratic order in the western world investment sobering. one last book to recommend. my own "post american world 2.0" i wrote the book long before the rise of our current president but donald trump has made the book's predictions come true more than i could ever have imagined. absolutely gripping cold war spy thriller from germany. it is worth the subtitles. documentary fans will not want to miss "i am not your negro," fascinating look into america's
race problem. and a film from sony picture classics, my final movie recommendation of the year, a beautiful film about a young nun who tries to make sense about a changing catholic church in the 1960s. "novitiate." subscribe to our podcast. according to a study released by bloomberg, right wing populist parties across europe on average have increased their overall share of vote in legislative elections from 5% in 1997 to 16% in 2017 and where are they the most influential? hungary. the even more right wing movement for a better hungary, won about two-thirds of the vote in hungary's latest parliamentary elections.
the gains of the populist right have been even more staggering, now controlling 15% of the feets, five times more than it did in 1999. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i'll see you next week. merry christmas, happy hanukkah and season's greetings. hey, i'm brian stelter. this is "reliable sours," weekly look at the story behind the story and how the media really works and how the news gets made. ahead this hour, disney. most of 21st century fox. why is sarah sanders saying this could be good for jobs while wall street expects layoffs? we'll get into that. stunning remarks by fox's rupert murdoch who says that fox's sexual harassment claims are nonsense. did he really say that? a story you'll have to hear about a