tv Fareed Zakaria GPS CNN December 17, 2017 10:00am-11:00am PST
this is gps, the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. we'll begin today's show with my take on the tax bill. >> we want to give you, the american people, a giant tax cut. for christmas. >> we'll follow that up with a tour around the world starting in russia with president putin's
press conference. it went on and on and on for almost four hours. so there is much 0 discuss. also, iraq declares victory over isis. all that with a terrific panel. also, steve bannon's candidate loses the race for alabama's senate seat. is the pull of populism fading in america? how is it doing on the other side of the atlantic? we'll take a look. then, you've heard all the horror stories from women in the workplace. we'll tell you why they are important for a whole different reason, an economic reason. i'll explain. and -- >> the stock market is at an all-time high. >> the dow, s&p and knack keep hitting record highs. is this a trump boom or is it a
trump bubble ready to burst? two top experts morgan stanley's and goldman sachs will debate. but first here's my take. if the republican tax plan passes congress, it will mark a watershed for the united states. the medium and long-term effects of the plan are clear. a massive drop in public investment which will come on the heels of decades of declining spending as a percentage of gdp on infrastructure, scientific research, skills train anchor government agencies. the united states cannot coast on past investments forever and with this legislation, we are ushering in a bleak future. the tax bill is expected to add at least 19 trillion to the national debt over the next ten years. and many experts believe that the real loss to federal revenues will be much higher.
we can expect big spending cuts in the near future which would happen on top of an already dire situation. as gary bertals of the brookings institution points out, combined public investment by federal, state and local governments is at the lowest point in six decades relative 0gdp. the united states is at a breaking point. in august, the world bank looked at 50 countries and found that america will have the largest unmet infrastructure needs over the next two decades. look in any direction. according to the american road and transport builders association, the united states has almost 56,000 structurally deficient bridges. about 1,900 of which are on interstate whiz and all of these are crossed 185 million times a day. there is no better indication of the u.s. government's my yoepia than the decline in funding for
research and development, topping 10% of the budget in the 1960s is now under 4% happening in an environment in which other countries from south korea to germany to china are ramping up their investments in these areas. a new study finds that china is on tracking to surpass the u.s. as the world leader in biomedical research spending. when i came to america in the 1980s, i was struck by how well american government functioned. when i would hear complaints about the irs or the faa, i would often reply have you ever seen how badly these bureaucracies work in other countries? certainly compared with india where i grew up, but even compared with countries like france and italy, many of the federal government's key offices were professional and competent. but decades of criticism, congressional micromanagement and massive underfunding have taken their toll. agencies like the irs are now thread bare. the census bureau is preparing
to go digital and undertake a new national tally, but it is ham strung by an insufficient budget and has had to cancel several much needed tests. the list goes on and on. now, there are genuine problems beyond underfunding, the cost of building infrastructure in america is astronomical, but during the depression, world war ii and much of the cold war, a sense of crisis and competition focused america's attention and it created a bipartisan urgency to get things done. ironically, at a time now when competition is far more fierce when other countries have surpassed the united states in many of these areas, america has fallen into extreme partisanship. and embraced a no nothing libertarianism that is stabbing the country confident essential investments it needs for future growth. those who vote for this tax bill, possibly the worst piece of major legislation in a generation, will live in infamy
as the country slowly breaks down. for more, go to cnn.com/fareed and read my "washington post" column this week. and let's get started. ♪ one of the most highly anticipated events every year for foreign affairs junkies is russian president putin's annual press conference. the 2017 installment was held on thursday and it was a classic putin spectacle lasting right around four hours. during that time, he answered dozens of questions. there was even a question about gps. alas, it wasn't ours. instead about the legality of putting a gps tracker on a cow. anyway, we'll talk about the substance of the press conference and much more with today's terrific panel. susan glasser is the chief international fairs columnist at politico, a former moscow bureau
chief for the "washington post" and the co-author of "kremlin rising." luke harding has a new book calledsome collusion, secret meetings, dirty money and how russia helped donald trump win." here with me in new york is david miliband now president and ceo of the international rescue committee. he has a terrific new book out called "rescue, refugees and the political crisis of our time." susan, let me start with you. what struck you most about the conference? certainly to me, the references to trump personally and the democrats were pretty unusual. >> well, i think they were extraordinarily unusual. putin, of course, often talks about the united states at these press conferences obviously to accuse the united states of encircling russia or engaging in hostile actions. he definitely has not used it as a platform in the past for praising the president of the united states for the good
performance of the american stock market. and it was so directly on theme with the kind of message that donald trump is usually telling us about himself. it was as if they had coordinated. >> luke, and then trump's phone call back to him, it all -- it felt bizarre as if this was a kind of personal bond you know and a very partisan one. putin attacked the democrats. >> yes, this is one of the great mysteries of the 21st century why is is donald trump so nice to putin chatting on phone, agreeing on everything when he's so rude about practically every other world leader including theresa may in great britain. he doesn't much like angela merkel. yet they chat on the phone. it's curious. it's curious. and i think the answer is firstly that putin has leverage over donald trump. i really think that's the case. and secondly, i think they he has what you called psychological mastery. he says the kind of things donald trump wants to hear.
he says that these attacks from inside america are an attempt to delegitimize donald trump. of course, that's what's trump himself thinks. >> david miliband, do you recall a head of state entering into a domestic dispute in quite the same way? and putin really attacked the democrats, said this is as attempt to delegitimize trump. trump is doing a great job. he's brought the stock market up. >> i certainly can't recall the chief booster, the chief international booster of a u.s. president being a country that has been trying to destabilize its democratic institutions. one thing occurred to me, i wonder how successful vladimir putin really thinks his play has been because obviously, he has caused a lot of instability but remember, if we had been meeting a year ago, we would have said are the russian sanctions going to carry on. where is american opinion going to be on the russia sanctions? will congress stand up for that. if you look at it at the end of
the year, he hasn't had sanctions relief, one of the top things he was looking for at a more specific level than the general undermining of western democracy. >> but susan, he has managed to get a certain kind of breathing space because trump is so involved in other things and trump is withdrawing america's role in the world which does give russia more scope. did you get that feeling from the conference? >> well, absolutely. look, remember, vladimir putin is facing a re-election no matter how much it's already a foregone conclusion in march. and i think it sets himself up to be the alternative to american power around the world. he's clearly trying to pay the leader and the peacemaker in the middle east now and ratifying the victory of his proxy, bashar al assad in syria. at the same time, here in washington, you have this incredible spectacle, incredible spectacle of basically donald trump's administration pursuing
one russia policy and the president of the united states basically not being on board with it. >> luke, let me give you a chance. you have this book out where you believe that the leverage that putin has over trump is real. what is the strongest case you would make about that collusion as you describe it in your book? >> well, i think it's financial. i think robert mueller is looking for actively at what dealings trump did with russia in the past especially after 2008 when he was broke. the whole question debated all year of kompromat, compromising material, alleged buggings of what may have happened during trump's kind of moscow visit in 2013. and i think there's the sort of basic question of the sort of russian influence on the trump team wherever you look, whether it's rex tillerson, u.s. secretary of state has an order of friendship from vladimir putin or michael flynn how admitting lying to the fbi. he was taking money under the
table from russian interests. it seems almost as if trump's cabinet was put together from moscow. we still haven't seen a single occasion when trump has criticized russia or russian foreign policy or putin personally. i can predict we will not see that. >> that is really the central prediction. it would be so easy to dispel some of these rumors by doing that, and yet he doesn't. we have it take a break. when we come back, we'll switch courses. iraq declares victory over isis. is it real? what is happening in the middle east? i'll ask david miliband among others. if you miss a show, go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my itunes podcast. your next getaway? connecting with family and friends? a big night out? or maybe your everyday shopping. whatever it is, aarp member advantages can help save you time
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and we are back with susan glasser, luke harding and david miliband. david, two years ago, we were all obsessed with the idea that isis was taking over the world. syria was falling apart. you know, the situation seemed pretty bleak particularly with regard to isis. is it fair to say as the iraqi prime minister now says that isis has been defeated? it is essentially destroyed? >> i think it's been defeated militarily but hasn't yet been defeated politically and ideologically. the fight for the soul and the allegiance of sunni communities across the middle east is very much alive. we've got people on the ground in syria, in iraq, across the region. and there's no doubt that the danger of isis 2.3, 3.0 remains because although there's been a significant degrading of its military capacity although it's
ability to occupy parts of iraq has been ended, it remains a force that has the ability to project power and project military power in a dangerous way. >> your book is about refugees and about the responsibility we should all feel around the world. do you get the feeling 2018 is going to see a letup in the extraordinary flows of refugees over the last two years. >> i wish. the truth is the trends are driving the refugee crisis. the crisis of diplomacy that means wars are burning for longer. the extraordinary tumult within the islamic world we've just been talking about, the weakness of the international system, our u.n. and international systems weaker, the fragmentation in the security council, all those trends point to long-term displacement and growing numbers of people. of course, one of the things that is striking is not just that political crisis produces humanitarian crisis. untended humanitarian crises then become the source of plilt political stability.
last month the king of jordan said his country is a boiling point from the refugee crisis. so 2018 portends are real danger that the root of these crises isn't going to be addressed. the diplomatic world is in stasis. that's the danger at the moment. but also that the destabilization from these crises continues. >> susan, one of the things putin has said is that he won. syria. he's good night -- he was boasting about that. is that a fair assessment, do you think? >> i also heard that from many people around the region who believe putin won and that now what he's turned his attention to is dictating if you will the terms of the peace. i thought it was an incredible moment a few weeks back whether he hosted assad who came out of syria for one of the only times during the civil war, came to sochi to talk peace terms with putin. he also had a phone call with
donald trump right before american thanksgiving and it seems to me this is a clear-cut example of russia and putin directly taking on a role that in the past would have defaulted to the united states. >> the luke, us see putin as taking advantage of -- how would you describe it, american distraction or lack of strategy in the middle east? >> yeah, i mean, i think putin over the last 17 or 18 years has been on a great patriotic project to make russia great again, if you like. that's gone through several phases. sometimes less successfully, sometimes more. we've seen wars in georgia, we've seen him grab crimea in 2014. now i think the international state is largely free for him to do pretty much as he wishes. and this has been his goal for so long to have russia as a kind of equal pull to the u.s. to -- i mean, russian analysts talk
endlessly how they want a multiworld he's pretty much got that now and taking advantage of trump's internal weakness. >> david, he has been in power now for 18 years. he will be in power for another six at least. you've conducted diplomacy at the high left levels. it matters when you have that much experience. this guy's been around the block several times when there's nobody else was running a major country who has been around for 18 years. >> not just the 18 years he's been but the six years coming. it's important to see the russia, china relationship, not just the russia, america relationship. the temptation is look at the bilateral. this is the year 2017 in which president xi jinping committed that china would be the international power in the system. i'm looking next year to see how does a russian leader with six years ahead of him, how does a chinese leader with at least
five and many people think 15 years ahead of him, what sort of relationship do they have? a rising china is going to find russia a pain in the same way that a challenged america finds russia a pain. >> so it really is a whole new world with all these countries trying to search for the influence that the united states in a sense has ceded. thank you all very much. david miliband, susan glasser, luke harding. next we'll explore why all of the mistreatment of women in the workplace could be hurting the united states economically. i'll explain when we come back. hi.
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now for a what in the world segment. as more and more allegations of sexual harassment predation and misconduct come to light, the united states in particular is beginning to have important conversations about what effect these incidents have had on women in the workforce. and it turns out that this is actually a conversation that is crucial not simply for reasons of fairness and morality but also for economic productivity. according to a new report out by standard & poor's, women who leave the workforce or never enter it have cost the united states greatly. s&p says that the u.s. economy would be $1.6 trillion bigger today if women in america entered and stayed in the workforce at the same rate women in norway have. what does that mean?
if we look at the oecd numbers for labor force participation rate of women in norway and the united states, we can see that the two countries had essentially the same percentage of working age women in their labor forces in 1972. but after that norway's percentage of women working grew much faster than america's and stayed much higher. indeed, for the past two decades, american women have been gradually staying at home as the country's female participation rate dropped by nearly 3 percentage points. during the same time period, female workforce participation rate in countries like estonia, france, and canada, were up by more than 6 percentage points. so why is america lagging behind? well, the study's authors told gps there are many reasons from male gender biases in workplaces to tax disincentives for a second income earner in a given
household. there are reasons that have nothing to do with gender. it's important to note the male participation rate dropped, as well. but the authors also note that the united states remains the only oecd country with no legally mandated paid maternity or parental leave. s&p highlights countries like sweden which are for subsidized child care and workplace flexibility. if the united states had implemented spectacular policies according to a paper cited in the report, the participation rate among women aged 25 to 54 in 2010 could have been 6.8 percentage points higher than it actually was. and such policies might have women enter more lucrative fields, work more hours and get promoted to higher levels all of which would help narrow america's pay gap between women and men. the bureau of labor sticks predicts that the downtownward trend of women aged 16 and older in had the workforce also continue for the next decade.
one other trend that why not downward remains too low is women's participation in the sciences. companies are reportedly desperately searching for women to still tem jobs, science, technology, engineering and math and can't find them. only 14% of women aged 25 to 64 in the u.s. have studied a s.t.e.m. field to begin with, a recent report shows. next year, some 2.4 million s.t.e.m. jobs will go unfilled. according to the smithsonian science education center. so the solution to america's growth problems might be simpler than we think. women and victorily women in s.t.e.m. remember, america's super sized growth that continued for many decades after world war ii was due in no small part to demographics. the nation had a relatively high birth rate. it was a nation highly attractive to immigrants. it was a relatively young nation but today's america's population
is growing at a slower pace. so the best path forward would be to better utilize the people already here. get more women into the workforce and then sit back and watch the economy boom. next on gps, what do alabama's new senator elect doug jones and france's president emmanuel macron have in common? find out when we come back.
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in alabama over a senate seat. bannon and his former boss, president trump backed roy moore, a conservative christian candidate, who has been accused by several women of pursuing sexual relations with them when they were teenagers and a lot worse. more lost to doug jones, jones will be the first seminar from that party to represent alabama in some 25 years. so have we hit pique populism in america or elsewhere? joining me xani, the editor-in-chief of the economist joining us from london and david trum in washington today. is he a senior editor at the atlantic. his new book "trumpocracy. >> caller: the corruption of the american public comes out in january. david, can we make too much of the roy moore loss? is this an unusual case? trump won alabama by 28 points, roy moore was a very bad candidate and yet, he's within a point of winning.
>> roy moore who is 70 years old is a backward looking candidate. his overwhelming issues were the place of evangelical religion in society and restoring a repre repressiveei sexual morality he talked a lot about. >> does it tell you the trump coalition is waning in some way or is it still strong and it was a bad test case? >> donald trump's own personal popularity is obviously an issue. in some exit polls trump was showing himself at 48% approval rating in alabama, one of the most conservative states in the country. is he obviously dragging down his own fitful performance. but the power of the issues donald trump discovered both in this country and in europe, those issues do seem still to have a lot of power. and we saw for example, the performance of the far right parties in the german election and although that populace was defeated in france, they are doing twice, as well as 15, 20
years ago. >> zani, when you look at this from europe, do you think those issues david frum talked about, after all, it is immigration at the heart of this right wing pop lewism in europe, how would you describe it. >> it's a really good question. how we have peak populism. and like saved, i would caution reading too much into alabama where there was a peculiarly awful off candidate. i would also caution too much against reading too much into the relative quiet we've seen in europe. david is right that the far right party in germany did remarkably well. we have macron's victory in france. he beat the populist le pen and his approval ratings are rising. it's been a plateauing perhaps this year. it's worth remembering this is against an environment of remarkable economic growth, kind of on both sides of the atlantic, the economy is doing
very well. on both sides of the atlantic, people's real incomes are getting better and those cultural questions driving much of the backlash is still there. i think of this as a sort of multiyear phenomenon. it's not going away. >> zanny, one thing you talked about was macron's rise agprobable ratings. they've gone almost from 25% to 50%. while he's announced some very tough economic refors, some bitter medicine. what do you attribute that to? >> i think macron, history will look back and macron will be deeped to be one of the most extraordinary figures in europe right now. now, he may be a complete failure. he may not end up being able to achieve what he's laid out. he cape from nowhere. he basically broke up the traditional party structure in france. he came in, once promising a jupiterian president. his poll ratings plunged. he's brought that back now. people are buying into his sort
of infectious confidence about france and about france's future. it's remarkable when you go from london where i live to paris and where for many years you would be going from a city in london that prided itself as being the center of the world's global capital to a rather sleepy paris, it feels somewhat different right now. paris people are incredibly confident. people feel france is awakening again. that's in large part due to macron. >> david frum, is there a lesson from macron for centrists for establishment candidates? is there something we can learn. >> there are two things you can learn. the first is, macron has been a voice for -- he is promising at least market opening economies. measures in france in order to deal with the problem of croon nick youth employment. just as the great problem in the united states is while you can get work, you can't get paid.
in europe, especially in plays like france, young people can't even get work although they do collect pay of various kinds. he has also shown a fairly tough face on immigration. and he has been willing to steal the issues, go a certain measure to steel the issues from these popula populace. populace don't get there by talking about things people don't care about. they talk about things people do care about, they talk about them responsibly in in ways laden with all kinds of ugly feelings but they seize on real issues. the challenge for responsible is to say how far can you go. the analogy i keep invoking is the way politicians of the center right in europe dealt with the challenge from come uism in the '40s and '50s. they didn't say the communists are talking about another. they built social insurance net works to take the communist supporters away from them. >> zanny. >> david's absolutely right.
macron is in some ways a populi populist. he's got an agenda which is very, very different to donald trump's but in the sense that he wants to make europe great again. it's not entirely dissimilar. the comparison i've been playing with is whether macron is a bit like teddy roosevelt. a man who wraps a progressive agenda in a cloak of national greatness. it's sort of european greatness. i think there might be something to that. >> and he's an outsider. a different kind of populist. fascinating conversation. next on "gps," the dow jones industrial average set multiple new record highs this week. almost every asset class is booping right now. is it a trump boom or a trump bubble about 0 burst? a great debate when we come back.
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remember the word bubble. you heard it here first. i mean, i don't want to sound rude but i hope if it explodes, it's going to be now rather than two months into another administration. >> that was donald trump at an iowa rally two years ago in december of 2015. well, trump now feels very differently about the same elevated stock prices that are in fact even higher. he tweeted in october, stock market hits another all-time high on friday. $5.3 trillion up since election. fake news doesn't spend much time on this. well, this real news program otherwise called a news program is going to spend some time on it. is this a trump boom or a trump bubble. >> joining me are two experts. put this in context, how do you describe the situation right now the with markets au over the world? >> exactly.
i think that there's been a stock market boom going on really since 2009. this has been the weakest economic recovery on record and yet, the strongest stock market boom on record. behave never had a boom this calm and in terms of this big. relative to how poor the global economy has done. over the last year, it's been double charge aid bit because the global economy has had its best year since the global crisis ended in 2008. >> but you're still saying that the growth levels don't support in kind of massive rise in stocks, bonds? >> exactly. one statistic here which concerns me, 30 years ago, the size of the global economy and the size of financial markets across the world was about similar. today, the size of financial markets stocks and bonds mainly is 3 1/2 times larger than the size of the real economy. now for me that really is the big risk. it's not the economy but the
overgrown size of financial markets across the world led by the u.s. >> abby, how do you see it? what do you think of the economy and the markets? >> i have a somewhat different view because it's important to say what was the starting point. and in 2009, share prices were extraordinarily depressed. if you look at valuation models you basically say at the prices then in the markets, what was being priced in was another five to six years of severe recession. that didn't happen. and so when we take a look at value models looking at earnings, cash flow and revenue, we would say the stock market's not cheap today but we don't think it's overpriced. >> when you look at markets rice in the last six, seven months, we are taught that the market is meant to reflect economic fundamentals. so what has changed in the last six months that is producing this massive rise. >> there are there are two
things. number one, before the election in the united states as it often does, the stock we think that regardless of the election out come, there would have been a noteworthy rise in share prices because the election was over. number one. number two, there has been a reacceleration in u.s. economic activity that began before the election and has become more apparent since. very importantly we are at the point where we have sustainable economic growth thanks to the improvement in jobs. >> final thought is that it's not just stocks. all asset classes are out. >> that's the difference. historically when hyou had a bubble in the market, there was one sector that was up like stocks in 2000 and in 20007, the problem this time is all classes
are up simultaneously. that never happened before. the underpinning is low interest rates forever and lots of liquidity from the central banks. you have disturbance in that e situation and the feedback in the economy and i feel that risk next year. they will start withdrawing the liquidity and there is a wide gap between the economy and the stock markets. i think that runs a risk of basically closing in. >> i admire both of you for articulating clearly what you think we will have to have you back about six months from now to see where we are. thank you very much. next on gps, tick tock, tick tock, still need to shop for holiday gifts? i will give you my rememberatiorememberatio
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because getting what you need should be simple, fast, and easy. download the xfinity my account app or go online today. >> the rise of right wing populous parties across europe is the subject of much discussion on the show. now a study has mapped out their collective progress with fascinating precision. that brings me to my position. on average, how much has the vote share of european right wing populist parties grown in ern elections. 50%, 80 percent p, 130%, or 220%.
>> in case you are naughty and haven't shopped for the bibl bibliofiles on your list, we will start with one recommended by president obama. a brief history of tomorrow. fascinating look at how technology is change what it means to be human. for the history buffs, i recommend nigel hamiltohamilton commander in chief. battle with churchill 1943. this is the memoire that he would have written had he lived. >> derek thompson's hittic maers, the science of popularity tackles big questions like why did game of thrones take off. the "vanity fair" diaries was my guilty pleasure for the year. tina brown describes what it was like to live at the center of
the roaring 80s in new york city. fiction fans will love the remains of the day. it is one of the best novels by a living author i have read and then the retreat of western liberalism and the decline of the democratic order. very sobering. one last book to recommend. my own. the post american world, 2.0. i wrote it before the rise of our current program, but it made the book's predictions become more true than i ever imagined. i have thrown in a few films to round things out. deutschland 83 is a spy thriller from germany. i promise you it is worth the subtitles. documentary fans will not want to miss i am not your negro. a fascinating look at the
profoundly gifted james baldwin and a fame from sony picture classics, my final movie recommendation of the year about a young nun who tries to make sense of a changing catholic church in the 1960s. don't forget to treat yourself. subscribe to our digital newsletter, a president that will arrive for free in your inbox with the best insights and analysis about the world. the answer to my challenge this week is d, according to a study, right wing populist parties across europe increased their overall share of vote in legislative elections from 5% in 1997 to 16% in 2017. where are they the most influential? hungary the right wing movement for a better hungary won about two thirds of the vote in the latest parliamentary elections.
the gains of the populist right had been more staggering. the controls 15% of the seats, five times more than it did in 1999. thanks for being part of my program and i will see you next week. merry christmas, happy hanukkah and seasons greetings. hello and thank you for joining me this suspected. i'm fredricka whitfield. for the second time in three day, president trump and russian president putin have spoken by telephone. the latest call happening today when putin offered thanks for u.s. intelligence that helped prevent an isis-inspired attack on saint petersburg. for more on the series of calls and reasons behind them, let's bring in nick robertson out of moscow. what do you know about the call today and how u.s. int