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tv   Fareed Zakaria GPS  CNN  April 1, 2018 10:00am-11:00am PDT

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this is gps, the global public square, welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world, i'm fareed zakaria. on today's show, kicked out. >> this is the largest collective expulsion of russian diplomats in history. >> but is this the right strategy with moscow? and, kim comes out of north korea, what to make of the
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leader's trip this week to china. and h i have a panel to discuss it all. and -- >> we have got the greatest economy, maybe ever. >> is he right and could jeopar? also, the other technology revolution that the world needs to pay attention to. i i i'm -- how getting hundreds of thousands online in india, could change the nation and also the world. first my take. we're often told that president trump is unconventional and this could well be an asset. while it's true he doesn't follow standard operating procedure on almost everything, from getting daily briefings to
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staffi ining his department. american presidents have tended to weigh their words carefully, believing they must preserve the credibility of the world's leading power. and then there is donald trump for whom words are weightless. during the campaign, he excoriated saudi arabia who once used women as slaved. he said nato was obsolete and then simply affirmed the opposite. there are situations on which such flexibility might work. president trump threatened fire and fury on a country, only to now meet witha same country's leader. we should all hope that it will, so far, though, it's worth noting that the circus-like atmosphere of trump's alternating threats and embraces
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have obscured a key point, it is trump that made the concessions, not kim jong-un. the american position has long been that until north korea took some concrete steps toward denuclearization, there would be no talks. the trump administration itself insisted that it would not reward the nuclear buildup with negotiations. now there's a good argument to be flexible on this procedure issue, but we should be aware that so far, kim jong-un seems to be executed a smart strategy brilliantly. he embarked on a fast track buildup creating a nuclear arsenal with missiles that could deliver warheads around the world. now with the arsenal built, he is mending relations with china, reaching out to north korea and offering to meet with washington. trump's skill here might be his
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willingness to embrace a new -- the united states will have to declare something less it's long declared goal, the complete denuclearization of the korean princ peninsula. the trump administration pushes hard on some issues, trade with south korea, for example and then announces a deal with concessions. most of these have been kim symbolic concessions made by allies that would allow the administration to save face. south korea agreed to raise the number of cars sold in the country from 25,000 to 50,000. no american company sold even 11,000 cars there last year. you see america remains a superpower, it's allies search for ways to accommodate it. the trump administration can keep making outlandish demands
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and it will accept concessions because they -- if trump has to come up with some changes with the iran deal, maybe they have to find some way to do so because they don't want to see the korea -- when the bush administration forced a series of countries to support the iraq war, this did not signal american strength, it actually sapped that strength. the united states has built up its credibility and political capital over the last century. the trump administration is rating that trust fund for short-term political advantages and in ways that will permanently deplete it. for more, go to cnn.com/fareed and read my "washington post" column this week. let's get started. on monday, an old-fashioned
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dark green train with yellow stripes pulled into a station in beijing. who was in the train was for a time the week's biggest mystery, then turned into the week's biggest surprise, it was kim jong-un, the north korean leader was on an unannounced visit to beijing, his first known trip outside the kingdom since he took power in 2011. what to make of the trip? he meets with prime minister xi, to discuss a broader offensive. and we'll talk to president and ceo of thinking tank. and richard haass is the author of the world in disarray. also with us is walter russell meade, professor of foreign affairs and humanities and a columnist for "the wall street journal." what do you make of kim jong-un's trstrategy, the trip
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beijing, it all seems well thought through. >> he seems to be keeping himself at the center of things, first with olympic diplomacy and now on this stage. i actually think this had more to do with xi jinping. the chinese are staying you're not going to make any deals without us at the table and it's reasonable to think they similarly wanted to make that very career to the north koreans. >> do you think, richard, that the united states has a strategy here? because for the longest time, it said we're not going to talk until you do something concrete. now they say we'll talk. is that a plan? >> there doesn't seem to be. the one thing you constantly hear is we're demanding denuclearization. but nobody has defined it. it's also not clear what we're prepared to do in exchange for
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whatever denuclearization is decided issed adequate. even if sometime down the road the north koreans are willing to give up their nuclear program. and sometime this way has to decide what it's going to do. but the only realistic path for diplomatic success at this summit if it were to happen in north korea, might be some type of diplomatic agreement where north korea would agree on. >> you're sort of a trump whisperer, because the book you wrote and the idea of a jacks jacksonian approach, which i assume subconsciously, i assume he has not read the 650-page book. >> i'm sure he's memorized it. but there is an interesting
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question, you do seem to get at, you understand the instincts, is trump the kind of guy that can do what richard says? because this is not the best deal, but we can live with it. and also sell it to a base that's very unilateral and jacks jacksonian. >> president jackson was was a better read president than president trump, but shared some of these ideas in his political base. one of the big issues was the french were reniging on an agreement to repay some debts to the u.s. jackson mobilized the fleet and started sending the rather small american navy across the atlantic, the french agreed to pay, but it was kind of a
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compromised settlement. jackson embraced it immediately. one of the things about jacksonian leadership is an agreement that they would never buy from obama, they might buy from trump, sort of a nixon to china kind of thing. whether trump will do this, that's a whole different question. but sfrtructurally, yes, it cou happen. >> richard, you made a point in a tweet which i thought was very interesting and important, which is john bolton, the new national security adviser has been threatening war against north korea. and it's important to understand that what he's talking about is not a pre-emptive war, but a preventative war, that is to say an unprovoked war against north korea which has not in some ways struck or is planning to strike the united states. do you think even leading that out there, without him publicly walking that back is dangerous? >> i don't know if it's dangerous, simply rhetorically, it's part of the backdrop to
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negotiations and it might conceivably push the chinese to use slightly more influence with the north koreans. but what john bolton wrote is flat out wrong. he confused specifically at the risk of losing your viewer ship, pre-emptive strikes. and under international law to simply go avenue gathering threats, we didn't do it against the soviet union and china, we did, we dolled the soviet union not to strike china in the 60s. so if there were ever to be effective to happen, this would cause an enorm wous war and again we would find ourselves isolated. so i think it's nothing more than rhetoric, but there are people like john bolton who could well believe in this. >> this is a bilateral summit. so far the krooutunited states always tried to do something
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about north korea, the way it has done something with iran, which is to get everybody at the table, because everybody has a stake, the russians, the chinese, the south koreans. is this creative diplomacy to try bilateral or is it a mistake? should we have included everyone at the table? >> it's better when we're coordinated. we need the chinese, we need the japanese and in general, our approach has been we don't sell out our allies. that is not something that trump is worried about. he's perfectly willing to sell out our allies at least rhetorically. but i don't think we had a thought out strategy, again, there. i think this absolutely caters to trump's desire to be center staged, to have a big win. my hard-nosed north korean diplomacy brought him to the table. he has a real advantage in playing up this, until it actually happens and then who knows what he this might give away, but i don't think it's strategically for us in asia,
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it's a good idea for us to be there with the north koreans alone. it also gives kim jong-un unbelievable prestige which suits him perfectly, but doesn't suit us. >> next on gps, another major foreign policy challenge, this week, the west responds to russia. worst symptoms including nasal congestion, which most pills don't. flonase helps block 6 key inflammatory substances. most pills only block one. flonase. sometimes you need an expert. i got it. and sometimes those experts need experts. on it. [ crash ] and sometimes the expert the expert needed needs insurance expertise. it's all good. steve, you're covered for general liability. and, paul, we got your back with workers' comp. wow, it's like a party in here. where are the hors d'oeuvres, right? [ clanking ]
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americans. the question remains, do these diplomatic expulsions make any difference? back with me, my panel. richard, you've -- you were old enough to go through this during the cold war. there was a very good piece i can't remember by whom who said this is old-fashioned diplomatic -- it actually pushes the u.s. at a disadvantage, because the russians expelled the few intelligence officers the u.s. has in russia, it's the only way that the u.s. has to find information out, so why do it? >> in plastic, this was the wrong move. now it was totally predictable. once we kicked out 60-odd diplomats, they were going to do the same thing.
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they were the ones who provoked this by the attempted murder of two individuals in the uk. i would have much preferred the approach that the russians couldn't have mirrored, which is to go after them financially, go after their ability to operate in the financial system. they couldn't have retaliated in kind. the question is what do we do next, at a time when there's almost no u.s.-russia relationship. there hasn't been a congressional delegation in five years. so i don't think diplomatic ousters, balanced or imbalanced serve either side's interests. >> allan, the reason why we don't do much economically, there's still the question whether the kremlin had has some economic ties to president trump. do you think that plays a part? >> i don't think that played a part in this immediate response in part because it's driven by
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the british and what the british decided to do and i understand richard's point that this may seem to be cutting off your nose to spite your diplomatic face, but it is the way the game is played. it is the natural first start, when somebody is murdering people in your country, the first thing you do is to downgrade relations with them. and what is impressive to me is that so many europeans followed suit. because that was not a given, particularly at a time when britain is leaving the eu, it was not clear that germany and france and most other big european countries and small ones, would say you've gone too far. i see this as an important first step, i don't think it goes far enough. and i think what we do need to do is go after the asset of ill gotten gains by various russian oligarchs, but this is a good first step. >> as richard said, at this point, we're in a kind of --
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there were many points during the cold war where we had better relations with russia and it does seem the trump administration is sort of frozen. it can make overtures because it doesn't raise that suspicion, it doesn't want to be too hard line. but there appears to be no throw mattic -- >> it's important to understand that from the russian point of view, our policy is actually quite anti-russian, in the sense that fracking is destroying one element of putin's power by reducing the price of energy, that a big military buildup and modernization of the nuclear arsenal are all the kinds of things that weaken russia's position in ways it can't do very much about. >> after the sanctions and -- >> exactly. so the idea that we could put a smiley face on all that and have a great relationship, i think, is wrong. i think trump, like his
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predecessors, like obama and like bush, both thought, okay, i can magically make the relationship good, i have the qualities unlike my foolish predecessor to have a terrific russia policy. the reset didn't work, bush's soul gaze didn't work, the problem with u.s.-russia relations are structural and what's interesting to me is that at the end of the cold war, everybody said, oh, that cannon, what a genius, but everybody forgets that our problem is not that their communist, it's that their russians. not communist now, no more u.s. problems. >> the solution has been somewhat psychological, i will have a better relationship with the guy. >> which is exactly what cannon was telling us would never work. it's fascinating, as a writer,
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it's incredibly frustrating. >> this relationship has been essentially been deinstitutionalized, we do have nuclear weapons, being modernized, we see what the russians are doing in syria, so i don't think either side is served by the current interstst affairs. we have to be tougher with them, but also find a way to talk to them. and we have to basically be able to manage both sides of this relationship at once. >> all right, we have to go. next on "gps" trump on trade, is he starting a global economic war? dear foremothers,
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joining me now, an associate editor of ftn's global political analyst. and now the chairman and ceo of willard advisors. steve, at the risk of agreeing with donald trump, not on that boast. >> the boast isn't true as you know. >> on the trade issue, isn't it right that china has basically been a cheater in a global trade system and taking advantage of the open trading system? >> it is absolutely right and it is something that people say, and it's been surprising to me in the last week or so since all this started how many people say, you know, i don't like the way trump does it and this and this, but he's not wrong. i have spent a lot of time in china over to the last 10 years, it's the most -- they're abusing tariff barriers, not nontariff barriers. so our response was not exactly the right response, but it was a trade deal.
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>> in trade wars everyone loses. >> what should have been started a long time ago is a global effort -- you're worried as much about china as we do, other develops countries worry about china, even under developed countries worry about china. we should have gotten together with china with diplomacy --. >> our biggest deals come from south korea and germany and canada and mexico, not from china. >> absolutely and that's what makes you so worried about this trade action, it feels like president trump just got up in the morning and tweeted us and didn't look at the implications. think long-term. china, it's true, china's trade practices are unfair. what they do well, is they plan for the long-term, they have an industrial strategy and an industrial policy. and that's what a lot of
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european nations have as well. what the president should be doing is thinking regionally, how to get closer to mexico and canada. >> you wrote a column which struck me as a very, very smart, you just came back to china and you said he was struck by the-degrthdegree to which the chinese model is working and the american model is not. explain that to me. >> china has their vision 2025 program, they want to be national champions in all kinds of industries, including robotics and ai, obviously anybody who goes there and you see the infrastructure, they're moving forward. and we're in gridlock, nothing's happening in washington. but the contrast between china just driving forward incredibly effectively and us essentially standing still is very striking. >> i think that this actually
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picks up on another thread in the news right now which is the correction in the tech stocks and the way technology is going to roll out, there may be a knew regionalism, china has made it clear that they want to be independent of u.s. technology. we need a strategy. we don't have a coherent strategy here at home about, what is the digital economy? does it look like is? what are the new leg regulationd policies that should be in place. we have scene policies that go in one direction and lovunc lur another. >> do you think to trump's claim, is the economy -- are we witnesses the deflation of a tech bubble, do you think? >> i actually think it's a big issue, and we may have reached a peak for tech stocks, i think
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europe for example is rolling out very interesting new privacy rules in may, they're looking at how should we regulate ai. data is the problem, right, when we look at election manipulation and the backlash over facebook, we need to find a balance between data and staying ahead in these industries. >> going back to your point, we can't pass a budget, we can't make investments in infrastructure, we can't make investments in science, is it possible that the chaotic open free wheeling system that america has is just going to under perform? >> this is the big question, fareed, i think we're actually literally witnesses a test between liberal democracies that have defined the post world war ii order, and china has its own
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system which is somewhat different and we're going to see who wins. there's a whole bunch of books coming out on this right now. people are really worried about it and i'm worried about it. i'm not in favor of giving up my civil liberties, but on a purely economic basis, i think state run capitals are doing better than our democracy. next on gps, just what is the next big technological revolution? it might be happening in one of the world's poorest nations. ic , little things can be a big deal. that's why there's otezla. otezla is not an injection or a cream. it's a pill that treats differently. for psoriasis, 75% clearer skin is achievable with reduced redness, thickness, and scaliness of plaques. and for psoriatic arthritis, otezla is proven to reduce joint swelling, tenderness, and pain. and the otezla prescribing information has no requirement for routine lab monitoring. don't use if you're allergic to otezla. otezla may cause severe diarrhea, nausea, or vomiting.
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. ask most people to identify the global hub of emerging technology and they probably think of silicon valley. but in one sense, the biggest leap in technology today is actually happening worlds away from those gleaming office parks. in 2000, india had so mi10 mill internet users, last year it reached 460 million, making it the second largest online user base in world, including china. why is it happening? a smart phone revolution. unlike americans who had a comparatively slow evolution from dial up to smart phones, indians are moving straight to these minicommuters. the former cnn new delhi bureau chief and author of the forthcoming book, india
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connected, now technology is transforming the world's largest carbon monoxide si. 200 million people lack access to even electricity, get hundreds more online than it has in a decade. the answer is all about prices, india's market is glutted with cheap phones and cheap data. smart phone prices have been falling for years, now indians can buy a basic smart phone for as little as $20. and in late 2016, something happened that made data cheaper, a phenomenon that will drive the next generation of online users. india's richest man who runs india's largest company launched the world's largest 4g access in the country. it announced it would build 45,000 mobile towers. and for then six months, it made
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unlimited 4g data absolutely free. it was a conscious effort to pull hoards of indians online and it's effect was revolutionary. by the end of 2017, 160 million people had subscribed. data usage in the country soared and india surpassed the united states in app downloads making it second only to china. in september, he noted that india moved from a lowly 155th in mobile broad band penetration to being the world's largest mobile data consuming nation, number one in just one year. all of these changes represent huge opportunities for geo and other companies. but they also have the potential to transform the internet itself. think of the hundreds of millions of chinese internet users and how they changed the nature of e-commerce. how they changed companies like
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alb albie baba and 10 cents. indians might well limit the next generation of transformations because of how this vast user base will use the internet. already the widespread available of government and other policies have led to a 20 fold increase in just 10 years smart phones provide education apps for india's aspirational youth and they're also helping people compare the price for medicines, in a country where most people pay burdensome medical costs out of pocket. all these innovations will have the effect of empowering some of the poorest people on the planet and lifting them out of poverty. next on gps, how is america today like south africa during the apartheid era?
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my next guest, is an author whose books tend to change the conversation. she's most famous for her 2011 book, battle hymn of the tiger mother. her new book just may change the way americans think about themselves. what does it mean to be american? and are people here american first, white, black, asian or hispanic first? working class or liberal elite first? amy is a yale law school professor and author of political tribes, group instinct of fatal nations. welcome back to the show. >> thank you for slg me.
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>> this returns to your first book where you have this phenomenon, in my developing democracies there was this huge problem in which you called a market dominated minority. explain what you mean. >> this phenomenon is persuasive in the developing world. in many developing countries there is a small ethnic minority, viewed as an outsider, that controls a vastly disproportionate a lot of the nation's wealth. in indonesia, the ones who control about 70% to 80% of the private sector in the private economy. or even whites in south africa, very different type, right? i mean that's a former colonizer, because they're ap t aparthe apartheid. but again, 10% to 14% minority that controlled all of the land, everything. indians, in east africa, lebanese in west africa, jews in many parts of the world between
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the first and second world wars. >> and the one western experience that we know of, the jews. and what you point out is that in all of these cases, you have a real problem, a problem with democracy, which is that the majority resents them and of course the majority has the political power. >> yes, so i have described market dominant minorities as the achilles heel of democracy. >> so now what you have pointed out, something you didn't even notice is you've realized that america actually does have a market dominate ed minority, th the majority or some large part of the country resent. who's our market driven minority? >> this is a huge development, and it makes sense in terms of everything that's going on in the country. people hurl big terms, racism, white supremacy. first of all, what happened with this massive demographic change,
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whites are in danger of losing their majority status. whites may no longer be in the majority. 67% of working class whites feel there is more discrimination against whites than minorities. at the same time, something else has happened, which is that class, a really education has split america's white majority, so what we might loosely call coastal elites or clooastal -- there was so much mutual antagonism and resentment and i have studied ethnicity for 20 years, it's almost like they're insular. the two groups don't intermarry.
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>> you say there's two worlds, one which is coastal, big city, educated -- >> multicultural. >> -- multicultural, and these people are separating themselves from the rest of the country. the part that i find interesting, it seems to me, is this is seen as a product of meritocracy, of a merit-based system of education. i think the people at the top think this is not ethnicity. this is justified because they did better on the sats. >> it used to be that way, but what's happened in the last 50 years is there is much less social mobility, education has gone raw. it used to be the engine that people could climb. now with tutors, it's so expensive. people in a lower class family in ohio can't easily make it, and there is a racial, annett in
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this case -- an ethnic element, too, that's very coded. when people say let's make america great again, they see coastal elites as minority loving. they love immigrants. they're always trying to help people in underdeveloped countries, they don't care about real americans. in a way it's a perfect parallel to we need serbia for the serbs, bolivia for the indigenous, real bolivians. zimbabwe for the black zim basketball babweans. that's the sort of tribe we're in right now. >> what do you do about it? it seems like these two groups are actually separating even more. >> we were playing with fire. i think progressives didn't realize that this identity-mongering and victim worshipping wouldn't just take over college campuses but would
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actually help donald trump get elected, and on the right i think a lot of conservatives didn't quite realize that this conspiracy theory peddling and rage mongering wouldn't help donald trump get elected. right now we're in a situation that we can't have. we now view people who voted on the other side as our enemies. i mean, as immoral, inferior people and not as fellow americans. but i think we're going to get there. i actually think in 2018 and 2020 that the messaging will be different on both sides. i think it's a bit of a wake-up call. >> abbey, thanks so much for being here. >> thanks so much for having me.
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historical records for a deeper family story. if you'd have told me three years ago... that we'd be downloading in seconds, what used to take... minutes. that guests would compliment our wifi. that we could video conference... and do it like that. (snaps) if you'd have told me that i could afford... a gig-speed. a gig-speed network. it's like 20 times faster than what most people have. i'd of said... i'd of said you're dreaming. dreaming! definitely dreaming. then again, dreaming is how i got this far. now more businesses in more places can afford to dream gig. comcast, building america's largest gig-speed network.
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voters in hungary are headed to the polls next sunday and the prime minister victor orbin is widely expected to secure victory. this would be the third term overall for orbin, one who is largely open to the european union. his party has made demonizing which american figure a central part of its strategy? is it hillary clinton, mark zuckerberg, barack obama or george saurez? stay tuned and i'll tell you the correct answer. my book of the week is "the ordinary virtues." it asks a simple question. is globalization bringing us together or tearing us apart? he answers it by taking us
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around the world from bosnia to brazil, south africa to myanmar. the result is a fascinating and deeply engaging book. and now for the last look. donald trump accepted kim jong-un's invitation to meet face to face, and the white house made it clear its goal is denuclearization of north korea. but before celebrating, we should ask is denuclearization a realistic objective? it's occurred in the past but only four times. in three of these cases belarus, ukraine and kazakhstan, they renewed their cases with the ussr. they neither developed the weapons located in their territory nor had the wherewithall to maintain them. only one nation has ever dismantled a nuclear arsenal it had developed itself: south africa. like north korea today, in the 1970s, south africa was a pariah
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state scared for its security and produced several warheads. the decline in the country led south africa's leader to declare the nuclear arms were no longer necessary. with apartheid ending, he wanted to send a signal that south africa was becoming a global citizen. he signed the non-nuclear proliferation treaty. in 1986, south africa signed the nuclear-free zone weapons treaty. as america wants pyongyang to denuclearize, they might study this. after all, it's the only one we have. victor orban's party has made social society groups in
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hungary. even though hosting this modern internally ranked senator for social sciences seems like a big win for hungary as a whole, the budapest denies it and it does smack of anti-semitism. thank you all for being part of my program this week. i will see you all next week. good afternoon and welcome to cnn. i'm ryan nobles in today for fredricka whitfield. we begin fwith a call for peace on this easter sunday. >> may the light of christ illumine the thousands of military leaders. >> that's the pope speaking to thousands packed in st. cathedral square. president trump returns from easter services with