tv World Business Today CNN August 8, 2011 4:00am-5:00am EDT
then has to pass. i will tell you, we are in a presidential election cycle. that makes things more difficult than they normally are. >> all right. sometimes markets can be more difficult than presidential cycles. we'll see how the next few months bear out. thank you very much. futures are lower. the dow futures down 211 points now. hello. i'm monita rajpal in london. the major markets have closed for the day, all down sharply. euro markets opened an hour ago with glimmers of hopes. of course, we'll have full coverage on "world business today." the crackdown on several cities across syria showed no signs of letting up. this video appears to show a funeral procession followed by gunshots and the crowd fleeing.
wha while cnn can't confirm the authenticity of the video, activists say at least 29 were killed on sunday. now saudi arabia is withdrawing its ambassador and calling for reform and the end to the bloodshed there. tropical storm muifa is expected to make landfall monday night. state-run media says authority's prepared by canceling flights and ordering boats to stay in port. more than 600,000 people along the coast have fled their homes. scotland yard says it has excellent surveillance video that can help authorities sort out saturday's rioting in london. 29 police officers were hurt following a report that man was shot after he was stopped by police. there were more disturbances sunday night but it was more described as sporadic looting. those are the top stories on cnn.
i'm monita raj pauchlt "world business today" starts right now. -- captions by vitac -- www.vitac.com good morning. from cnn london, i'm charles hodson. >> and a very good afternoon from cnn hong kong. i'm andrew stevens and you're watching "world business today." the top stories on this monday, august 8, asia slumps but europe holds its ground. is it enough for investors? they're defending igts apparent reason but critics are not con o vinced. and from washington to main street, have all the downgrade impact affect real america? it may have been the weekend but it's doubtful the prime minister got much of a break. the turmoil on the global markets spurred them into action and as the new week began came
twin announcements from the g-7 and euro banking. they say it stands ready to take coordinated actions. it says it will take all necessary measures to support financial stability and economic growth. so far it has not specified what those measures may be. by contrast, the european central bank says it will actively implement its program of european buying as. as this comes following a market route that started on friday and a hammer blow to confidence by the ratings agency standard & poor poor's which downgraded its rating on the policy debt. you've set out the bad burns. you've been very polite about it, andrew.
i want to take the gloves off. action versus inaction. the bear minimum versus something concrete. that summarizes the way the global markets view the two statements that came out over the weekend. g-7 pledged nothing and asian and u.s. investors are unimpressed. the european central bank says it's willing to buy italian and government debt and euro investors appreciate that, we're seeing that in the number, but can that more positive mood stand the continue use carnage. with me is nina dos santos. let's talk about this. >> it's the time charles when the markets just temporarily rise and fall down because frankly the underlying issued haven't been tackled. some of the stock matters rising but very, very modest rises. in fact, the dax, which is the best performer year to date, charles, is actually down by
about half of one percent. that's quite interesting to note because after the statements that we got out overnight and over the weekend from the ecb, we should know that the bank is reportedly against this plan. >> but the government doesn't seem to buy it. >> according to the g-7 so far. that's the issue here, charles. we have so many different views and politicians coming out with different points of views, even to the outgoing head of the ecb that that's why the markets seem to be so jittery. >> let's get back to that later in the programming. we'll be talking to you later on. what's up, what's down in terms of european stocks? >> right. let's look at the sectors that are being affected by this. the banking sector in a number of countries like spain and italy have been affected. it's been suffering as there are ongoing concerns as the countries continue.
what we're seeing is a bounce. particularly in italy. some banks are up in excess of 7.5% in the first hour of trading alone, also another huge bank over there up another 3%. the reason we're seeing such a strong bounce with these italian and french banks is because a number of them hold large amount os these italian bonds on the sheets. those are the bonds that the ecb says they're going to be buying back a portion of to try to bring down the yields. the question is why are the yields so important? well, if they go up toward 7%. it becomes unsustainable for italy to carry on with the market. italy has $2.6 trillion worth. >> it leads to default. >> exactly. >> let's be clear about that. >> it also leads to a kind of bailout. when we look at the bond deal, the bond deal were heading up past 6.5% last week, leading to iuorio highs for italian debt,
similar situation for spain. so they're only about half a percent from the level. they've come back down to 5.25, but still that's way above the save haven that we're seeing for the german bonds. the germans can actually borrow 5 . while we're on the subject of euros, it's interesting that they're still trading at the same calibers they were before the downgrade which shows the bond investors are not as pessimistic as others might be. >> they're still about 2.5% or something like that, but also the uk markets being perceived as a save haven. one investor said, who would have thought. >> who indeed. nina, we'll be talking with you later on. many thanks. andrew. >> good point. treasuries are being seen as a
safe haven despite the downgray. most markets across the asian pacific unlike those in europe nose-diving this day, now banking and exporter of stocks surprisingly hit the hardest. ramy imocencio with more on the downfall. >> andrew, thanks. they tasted first blood. first off to japan where the nikkei fell more than 2% and is now down more than 12% year to date. sony fell nearly 4%. honda was down more than 3%. here in hong kong the hang sang fell 2%. we're talking pachk of china, china construction bank. they fell between a 1% and a 5% here. in the mainland the shanghai composite fell almost 4%. fell to its lowest point in a year. again, financials here were the big wave and over in south korea, something interesting
here. the kospi was down 4% and actually trading was suspended for about five minutes. this was after a selloff this morning triggered a drop of more than 5%. analysts triggered the plunge as they sold off equities. finally in australia, they fell about 3%. miners were hit especially hard. ala resources fell. >> they're still pretty firmly in demand. not perhaps as much as gold. what's happening there. >> that's right. the new gold record is what everyone is talking about today. let me bring the chart up. the record crashed through the $1,700 barrier. it hit an all-time high. 1718.20 an ounce. it did pull back.
it was about 1718.05. just today it's jumped 3%. it's popped by more than 21%. >> okay, randy, thanks very much for that. pretty brutal day here in asia. now for more on that and what we can expect as we head in. b ben, good to have you on the show. >> interesting how europe has reacted so far. positive. do you thinking this beijing reaction has been overdone? >> i think certainly to some degree. i think when the markets opened this morning we sort of saw a lot of retail investors to sell. that's why we saw asian market down so hard during the morning session, but what we saw during the afternoon session is what we saw in europe as it starts to open this morning and that is they came off their lows late in the day. for example, kospi was down
almost 7% in the session but we saw down about 3.8%. >> still significantly down. i want to know given the fact that treasury is performing well, that the g-7 countries are saying we will take action. they haven't yet. the ecb actually buying italian and spanish bonds, we believe. should we be -- what's driving this fear? >> i think that obviously the timing of the downgrade. it's very well to say it was anticipated and priced with the mark. i think it was to a certain degree. but i think the actual event did shock sof participants and they had a weekend to thing about how concerned they were. that's why markets opened up so heavily low. so i think it kols after a very difficult seven- or eight-day trading market. thing this adds to the negative sense. but i have to say the fed meetinging tomorrow night asian
time will be more closely watched. i would say it's a bit early to say the fed's going to hint to qe3. but if they start to dissipate even further and the dollar starts to print only the softer side of the equation, i think qe3 is a definite equation and the gold we saw today is clearly pricing it as a real chance. >> so when you say qe3, you're saying trying to bolster the u.s. economy by buying more bonds or whatever. i want to move on. should we really take any notice of s&p given the track records of the credit rating agencies haven't been good over the financial crisis. there's like a $2 trillion misunderstanding shall we say. it says should we be putting so much credence in this you up grade? >> i think certainly. they've made a valid point about the u.s. finances being far more
over the last couple of years. i think what would have been far more problematic and i want to make one more distinction. s&p continued the downgrading of the u.s. but kept its short-term credit rating at the heist level. now that's very important, otherwise you might have seen it by money market managers. obviously in the s&p's view they think it's a fair assessment. what i'd also point out is in the general scheme of things the difference between aaa and aa-plus is marginal, is fra fractional at the very least. canada got downgraded from aaa. it regained its rating a couple of years later and what happened after the downgrade, canadian bond prices went down, canadian
bond prices went up. so i think we'll see a rise in mortgage yields and a rise in everyone's credit card the interest rates. i think it's misplaced and misguided. >> and japan also lost its credit rating. >> exactly. and look where it snies the stock market went up 25% in japan the following 25% after that downgrade. >> if we could get fiscal responsibility around the world, that might help. >> who's to say what they do. anyway, ben, we'll have to live wit. thank you so much. ben pedley with hsbc banking. charles. >> we'll see what wall street makes of it when we begin trading on the u.s. market in 5.25 time. right now not looking too cheerful on the market. all set for a lower, not much lower by standards of what we've seen but basically off by more than 1% for the dow, the nasdaq, and the s&p 500.
we'll see what happens and whether they're encouraged by what's been going on in the european markets and as ben pedley was saying i doubt it's going to impress the u.s. too much, andrew. >> there's so much uncertainty at the moment, charles. the first certainly has been flying since that decision was announced on friday. we'll hear what s&p and its detractors are saying about the rating agency's move to downgrade. that's just ahead. this bowl of strawberries is loaded with vitamin c. and now, b vitamins to boot. coffee doesn't have fiber. unless you want it to. new splenda® essentials™ are the first and only line of sweeteners with a small boost of fiber, or antioxidants, or b vitamins in every packet. mmm. same great taste with an added "way to go, me" feeling. new splenda® essentials™. get more out of what you put in.
[clucking] [clucking] [ding] [clucking] announcer: separate raw meats from other foods by using different cutting boards. 3,000 americans will die from food poisoning this year. keep your family safer. check your steps at foodsafety.gov. well, as you can see there, up by 3% led by the italian banks, this on the news that the ecb is more actively to buy italian and span innish government bonds. welcome back from cnn hong kong and cnn london, this is "world
business today." >> as markets open around the world this monday we're monitoring the reaction to the u.s. debt downgrade but the rating agency that made that call said the red flags have been in place for some time. john chambers is standard & poor's sovereign director. >> in terms of acting in haste, we first of all have been writing about this since 2005, but, you know, we gave a negative outlook to the u.s. government rating in april, 18th of this year, indicating a one in three chance of a downgrade over a six to 24-month time horizon. on the 124 14th of july we went to a sacred it watch negative, indicating a 1 to 2% chance of a downgrade in the next 90 days. we've been clear in our analysis and our concerns which are on the political side and fis cat side so i don't think anyone can be taken by surprise by the action that we took. >> they did clearly flag their
concerns about the u.s. economy, but that didn't wash in washington. quote, terrible, amateurish, breath-taking. those are just some of the adjectives that the obama administration has been using to describe standard & poor's downgrade. it showed a, quote, stunning mathematic knowledge about plans. timothy geithner, quote, i thinking s&p has shown really terrible judgment and they've handle themselves poorly. they've shown a stunning lack of knowledge about basic u.s. fiscal budget math and i think they've come to the wrong conclusion. >> so geithner gives standard & poor's a poor grade in math skills which brings us to a big number. $2 trillion. many say that's how many dollars s&p was off in its calculations. they say the ratings agency
admitted to inflating u.s. deficits but went ahead with the downgrades naichlt one official said it speaks for itself. so will the downgrade stand, we're told the white house is hoping s&p's decision and its analysis will face outside scrutiny, andrew. >> it's interesting john chambers was kwoited as saying on average it take tweens ten and 18 years for a country to reclaim the aaa rating one its lost it. it could be a long-run problem for the u.s. certainly that criticism coming from the nation, even stronger coming from president obama's former economic adviser. larry summers. he was also the former u.s. treasury secretary tear. >> the track record has been tear about and as we've seen this weekend its arigt ma tick is me worse.
that's not the large issue here. the large issue is the house majority played chicken with america's credit worthiness and america's families are now going to be the losers, losers in terms of higher interest rates on their mortgages, losers in terms of what this is going to mean for employment, that we're about got critical economic problems. >> no mincing his words. this is "world business today." you've heard about the ratings agencies, the markets and the trillions of dollars but what does the downgrade mean for average americans? cnn hit main street usa to find out.
what i think the s&p thing did was hit a nerve that there's something basically bad going on and it's hit the self-esteem of the united states, the psyche, and it's having a much profounder effect than i conceive could happen. >> hmm. another surprise there from the former fed chairman alan greenspan as he gives his thoughts on the downgrade. felicia taylor took to the streets of new york city to find out. >> reporter: we just had a downgrade, an unprecedented thing to have here. are you at all concerned about the economy of the united states? >> i'm despairing about the economy, but the bond rating
agencies aren't waring a lot of clothes right now after the way they mishandled the rating of all those terrible bonds that everybody bought. they were aaa until the economy collapsed, so i don't think they have a leg to stand on really. >> i'm surprised it didn't happen earlier really. >> reporter: why's that? >> i think we even been on a track toward irsbonl spending for quite a long time. >> reporter: how worried are you about your personal finances? >> well, you know, i'm retired, i have a peng, and, you know, i'm worried about that. i don't know what's going to happen with that, you know, and it's always a crapshoot. you know, every day you don't even want to open up the paper to see what else they have cooked up. >> yes, you can understand some of the sentiments being expressed on the streets of new york. certainly this is uncharted territory for americans. our colleagues at cnn money have
been breaking it down for you. we'll begin with stocks. now, a downgrade could stoke more uncertainty that they don't need at this moenlt but a history shows that a downgrade does not necessarily take a long-term toll on it. when japan lost its credit rating the stock market lost 25%. stocks in canada also rose significantly in the year following its loss of aaa also while borrowing costs stayed fairly slow. speaking of which, let's take a look at the bonds. this is the possibility of an uptick in bond yields. at the same time treasuries are still considered a default investment for global investors who seek safety and any uptick could be muted. so far the reaction on the markets still seen as pretty much a safe haven despite that
downgrade. and finally borrowing. longer-term treasuries are in greater demand while many are seeing it fall. that's bad news for those repaying car loans, for exam people, which followed shorter term rates. could go up. rates there tracked a longer term yield and that one importantly, charles, continues to fall. >> indeed. no selloff of u.s. treasuries. you're watching "world business today." china is the largest hold over u.s. debt. china is seeing red, i suppose. we'll take a look at china's anger and find out what beijing plans to do about it. that's ahead.
from cnn london, i'm charles hodson. >> and i'm andrew stevens in hong kong. welcome back. you're watching "world business today." >> okay. let's see what's going on in the european market. we're now two minutes into the trading day and we are seeing some of terrell gains fading away there, certainly in terms of the dax. that's off by 2/3 of a percent. a scant gain there for the zurich smi. by the way swiss unemployment held steady at 3%. about what asia, andrew? >> well, charles, as we've been saying, a much worse reaction, stronger reaction in asia to that downgrade today pretty much right across the region. obviously asia is an exporter.
obviously u.s. is such a key part of the markets. if you take a look at the numbers there, you see it. that's the damage today. what i would say is it was worse earlier, so there's something at least a little bit of relief toward the end of the day. the nikkei down 2%. all the key markets there. shanghai falling more than 3. 3..77%. there has been a catch-up going on. the strategists now in bad territory. down more than 20% from its high in the current cycle so australia certainly feeling the brunt of the selling globally as the concerns about the site of the global economy and still the euro debt crisis concerns play havoc, certainly in this part of the world, charles. >> okay. we're going to return to a key partet of the main story, that is moves by european central bank to buy up government bonds. by the way, the overall stock
market index numbers, we are seeing strong buying of spanish and italian commercial banks. well, the ecb's announcement into the european bond market bond market to stop deals from spanish and tlain bonds from rising. with more on what might follow we're joined again by nina dos santos. investors like it. what is going on? >> this is a complicate thing, isn't it, charles? on the one hand the ecb in a statement didn't specifically mention those two key words, italy and spain but it did signal that it would be leading into the bond markets. yields on italian ten-year debt have come down by a good% perct at the moment. 5.36 for spain and 5.39% for spain. mind you if we put that in
context against the most safest debt, the german bund, they still have to pay more to borough on the open markets and that's really the crucial thinking. it's become too expensive for countries like italy to service their enormous debts. have about $2 trillion worth of debt it's going to cost the ecb a lot to do. >> it has. >> let's take a look at it. it seems as if they do buy about 2.5 billion worthet of italian and spanish bonds every single day, some economists are reckoning that could tally up to $1 trillion over the course of the whole yearful there's also a lot of concern, charles, about whether this is realistically going to be sustainable, whether the intervention is going to be enough for the markets. of course, you have to marry the politics with the financials here. at the euro-zone is an area that has 17 different countries that
share the euros. their common currency. they all need completely different prescriptions here. >> one of the descriptions is the lack of annan anom name what is i suppose the almighty ecb, three different view points there and not to mention all the other governments. >> and that probably is what has got the markets worried or had the markets worried for quite a while. it took months, didn't it, to agree to the second bailout pack oj. then, again, we do have a bit of a dichotomy here between the prudent nation and those, the two lesser ones that had the generous bailouts but they are big spenders and countries like
germany is not a big spender. what we do know is that it's being recorded that the bund bank was against buys the bonds in the market. it was against not just for the italian and spanish treasuries but also intervening last week for the portuguese and irish bonds. that was to try and buy those bonds, try to support the markets to bring down the yields. doesn't seem to have worked too much. i was looking at the yield on the greek bonds and that currently still is 16%. >> you would have thought that the lessons of all of this euro-zone debt crisis in terms of disarray and putting things off constantly, there have also been loans on capitol hill as well perhaps. nina dos santos, thank you very much indeed. andrew. >> obviously it spark as big reaction to the markets here in asia as we've been talking about today but politically it's sparked a huge reaction in china
and china is stalling washington for its, quote, washington's 'diggs to debt. now, beijing was saying through its official media there says that unless america caps its military expenditures and military programs another credit downgrade is inevitable. why is china so angry? well, tight biggest holder of debt. it's warning that asia exporters could be among the biggest victims of america's mounting debt worries. a chief economist and morgan stanley based here in hong kong. nice to have you back on the show. china's quite justified here, isn't it? >> yes. i think the china and u.s. has this kind of relationship. you buy my products, i'll buy your treasury. it's been going on for a lot of
years. then they say, wow, it's been losing a lot of money it's been very noisy. >> there with be. there's nothing china can do. china can talk by think whenever you lend money to a government you're completely at their mercy. >> do you think its criticism is going to have any sort of impact in washington. >> i think that there's a little bit of impact in this sense that china is -- the willingness to buy more could be affect. now if you look at the market today, among china and japan, if they stop buying the interest will go up. >> but is there any way -- >> i think china has to throw to the currency.
the country has these problems because you have an unhealthy relationship with the united states and you have to buy the dollars because you want to maintain your currency link to the dollar. >> because they're your biggest market base. >> yeah, basically that's what's been going on. so they have to throw to the currency. >> and i want to talk to you about the u.s. economy as well. do you think there is a likelihood now, more than 50%, that there'll be a recession? >> i think less than 50%. u.s. is heading toward a very slow growth, not a recession like in the past. i think we're seeing the economy double dipping. >> not a negative -- into negative territory. >> what would the negative impact on china be? >> well, the exports have been declining for a couple months. i think they're still a big part of the economy. roughly 30% of the gdp. so obviously if exports are not
doing well, it's going to have an effect. >> a big effect. >> yeah. >> andy, as always, great to talk with you. andy xie in shanghai, former chief economist at morgan stanley. charles. >> that's the reaction from china. how are investors in did million east taking the u.s. downgrade? we'll find out when we return.
welcome bachlk you're watching "world business today." the markets are highly sensitive to any economic u.s. problems and they would want to take the first bite of the apple which is after the u.s. markets have closed. markets though in the middle east were down sharply over the weekend. they have different weekend
costs to those of the western world. they're watching closely the debt cree cease in both the united states and europe. joining us from cnn abu dhabi is tom from the english knapp in england. we saw a bit of buying in the asian markets and european market early on rchlt we seeing that in the middle east in monday trading? >> yes, absolutely. in fact, abu dhabi and markets are quite substantially up, both in dubai and abu dhabi. but i think one thing investors in the government and region are looking at is something we haven't gotten into to much in this program is the oil price. the oil price. that's something we'll look at.
if you remember in previous crises, all prices have gone up sharply along with gold. today you've got gold going up and oil going down which i think is of a great worry to this region. >> okay. so let's unpack that a little bit. the middle east markets could be hit by a slumping oil price and essentially the end of the boon that we saw in some gulf states. >> well, i think certainly the high oil price has been the one redeeming factor of this global recession that we had for the past couple of years and certainly for this -- i'm talking obviously from the point of view from the middle east and exporters who have benefitted lately from the high oil price. now, if the one redeeming factor, the oil price were to slip away, that would certainly
cause a lot of concern and potentially financial instability in the region. >> and what sort of numbers are we talking about? would that kick in if we were kind of below $90 a barrel or more below $80 a barrel? >> well, it's interesting, isn't it? of course every country is different. the uae, for example, is very comfortable on a much lower oil price that many other countries but u if you look at the ones that are much vulnerable to an oil price drop, certainly iraq is on there, iran is on there, even saudi arabia, which for many years could survive on very low oil prices partly because they've increased spending with the unsecurity around the region. they now need higher oil prices. if we look at the price this morning it's down about $3 a
barrel. but the u.s. crude market is down $80 a barrel but u.s. exporters would be looking at that saying we don't want to go much below that. >> just a shade below 85 as i see it. tom ash by joining us there if abu dhabi, business ed ter of the national. many thanks to you. andrew. >> so, charles, here's a question. is this the future of air travel? boeing certainly hopes so. coming up, what challenges remain as the 787 dreamliner makes its loing-awaited debut next month.
welcome back. live from cnn hong kong and cnn london this is "world business today." well, boeing has rolled out its new dreamliner 7878 passenger plane. it's overbudget and overdue, but some say it may just revolutionalize air travel. >> reporter: better late than never for boeing 787 dreamliner. on saturday the company unveiled the new passenger plane, three years overdue and billions of dollars overbudget. the 787 was finally ready for its close-up. >> they were rolling out the
first delivery airplane. the first one. it's an amazing thing for those who worked on the program five, six, seven years here at boeing and around the world. >> reporter: there's no other like the both 787. it bromss a lighter, more fuel-efficient and cost-effective plane for the airlines and a potential game-changer for the japanese airliner that will fly the first 787 fleet. >> we intend to use the dreamliner to expand our business, particularly our international route. we are aiming to increase our revenue from the financial operation significantly. >> aboard the 787 dreamliner. >> of course, what most people care about inside the plane. they have touchscreen and
business class and throughout the plane more natural light, more humidity and, yes, more leg room. the plane's cutting-edge technology and reliance on third-party companies memt long delays, lodge gist ticks that still have to be fine-tuned before boeing speeding up 787 production. >> i think it's an extraordinary challenge. no one has ever built a wide-body aircraft at the rate of ten per month before. i think boeing has its work cut out for it. >> reporter: work meaning you may have to wait a little longer before you can take off on boeing's 787. tropical storm muifa will bring more gusty rain and winds tonight i'm told. ivan cabrera has more.
>> a landfall with a tropical storm not as important as we had had with a typhoon which has certainly been the case, u although we had certainly expected the to weak within water temperatures in the mid-20s or low 20s i should say for things to get really going here. this was once a category 5 monster. you can see most of the convection of thunderstorm activity wrapping around it really weakening here. just some rain left over here. here's the center of circulation getting in here as we speak and it's going to be bringing gusty winds. we've been monitoring the situation and the strongest guest we could find the last hour was 70 kilometers an hour, which is west of seoul. right now sustained winds at around 44. so sure we're going to get gusty winds and some storming this year along the coast, especially over the next six hours and things begin to wind down as the center of circulation rolls through some mountainous terrain
and will begin to disrupt this system here. we're going to have leftover showers and that will continue certainly over the next six to 12 hours. we'll show you what's happening in china. le not only coming from china but we started in okinawa with the torrential rains and the significant power house. but here you're taking a look at video as the waves are coming on in. there had been some evacuations there as a result of precautions that were taken as the storm -- you never know with these storms. they could certainly intensify. i think they certainly dodged a big one not only for shaj high but further to the north. as i mentioned behind me, you'll see some leftover rainfall over the next couple of days. and by the way, charles, the rest of the western pacific right now not looking for any development. taking a bit of break as we say good-bye to our tropical storm muifa.
>> okay, ivan cabrera joining us live from the weather center. many thanks. let's take a look at the stock markets here in europe. we are looking at the early gains being thrown away and we're losing more than 1% of the dax, paris cac 40 off by 1%. london ftse not far behind, by.74%. i suspect that we are probably still seeing gains, andrew. >> it's interesting. obviously it's the same story in the u.s. futures market as well, charles. the dow was down at the start of the show. down by 1%. so the futures markets are also extending their loss. these are notoriously volatile. but take a look at that. still a big sell on wall street. but that's it for this edition of "world business today." we'll be back, though. plenty to talk about this day.