Skip to main content

tv   Capital News Today  CSPAN  December 21, 2011 11:00pm-2:00am EST

11:00 pm
government debt, that is, is for over four and a half trillion dollars, three times the entire sub prime mortgage market in the united states at the peak. the italian bond yield, ten year bond yield is over six and a half%, an entirely unsustainable level. now, most economists agree that the crisis will be with us for many years and also agree on the shape of low long-term solutions that we must have. these include its fiscal union which should include jointly issued bonds, eurobonds. it must include tight fiscal discipline and austerity and
11:01 pm
structure reforms that make it periphery more competitive. most economists also agree that these reforms will take years, and you need a bazooka to help, the periphery defend itself from markets in the meanwhile. this bazooka can take the form of a combination of the bigger european financial stability fund. imf enlargement, and d.c. be support, but the banks, which it is not doing the time, and to sovereign when necessary. the essence of the current stalemate in europe and its inadequate policy response is that there is no agreement, either on how the burden of adjustment will be shared in the short term, nor is there trust that in the long term a fiscal
11:02 pm
union will not turn into a trance for union from the north to the south. on the other hand, everyone is aware that we all lose a lot if no solution is found. the big losers will include, of course, the periphery of europe, but also germany, the u.k., which is in the you, but not in the eurozone. it could include the united states which is europe's bigger external creditor, and for whom europe is the largest export market and for similar reasons it will include china. even in good circumstances europe is likely to see a shallow recession, indeed, one that has probably already begun. this is in fact the baseline that most people are not working on.
11:03 pm
however, in the worst circumstances possibly the whole world and to a multiyear digression. i personally am not at all sure that the europeans can handle the problem on their own, not just because of the political divisions, but because of the economic problems that have become too big for the health the growth of europe to handle. for that reason i have argued for imf enlargement, supported by all its members beginning with the united states and china as a badly needed insurance policy. so that is my introduction on the 2011 and on the euro crisis. and now want to kick off a conversation.
11:04 pm
agree with each other, i agree with ourselves, among ourselves. and to comments when is the golan. and i'm going to direct the first question to hans timmer and as give how he sees the outlook for the advanced countries in 2012 and how it might affect their rising markets. >> first of all, thank you for inviting me. i hope that we can visit. he said that to a dozen 11 was not a disaster, but, indeed, it was very disappointing. we are preparing, at the moment, or global economic prospects that we will publish four weeks from now.
11:05 pm
almost without obsession -- exception the growth rates lower. we only saw a couple of months ago. no, that has a lot to do is what happened in europe. the crisis, which i see as the second phase of the financial crisis of 2008. many european countries have been to the recession. that is drop the countries, but also a couple of other disappointments. destruction of the global production network. much different than earlier anticipating. also the united states. secondly in some of the emerging economies, the impact of the policy that was necessary
11:06 pm
because several of those countries were close to overheating. tightening and slow the economy's like brazil, india, the church to some extent, and perhaps in the coming months also china, much more than we earlier anticipated. with all these developments it was very difficult to interpret the short term dynamics. you mentioned good news, but i would not be too optimistic. you see, sometimes the rebound from a disappointment earlier, so you had the sharp decline in production in japan and then the yeah the states and the spring after the tsunami and earthquake . then use of a rebound. then in august the rebound stops because of the downgrade of the u.s. now it's coming back again little bit.
11:07 pm
as you look at the grass going toward those of really given what is happening in europe with the moment. >> to you what to say something? the effects of particular of the european and american uncertainties? >> there are three effects already observable, would argue, coming up. first of all, collapsed, and that has an impact on the exports of countries. that is one channel. numerically is the most important one in the war. you can already see it in the daytime. developing countries of slowdown
11:08 pm
and to some extent you see a reversal of capital flows as a result of the deal leveraging european bank. so especially the eastern european countries are very vulnerable. and certainly you see an impact of a general spread of uncertainty in the world, especially identified after boris across the world, across the large countries. stock markets coming down. uc weakness. that has an impact on the sentiment in those countries. increasingly because of what you said at the beginning it is the emerging markets that a driving the global economy. very much focused on what is happening in the domestic market >> let me pick that up then on the domestic situation and again by asking you how he sees the challenge in china domestically,
11:09 pm
and we're going to come to the international situation in china in a moment. >> it's very easy to disagree about china. i find myself finding it easy to this year of myself a times. i want to begin by giving you a couple of quotes because everyone is talking about whether there will have a hard or soft landing. there is no easy way to avoid the buttons. here's the one. china breaks, china story. too much of the crack of three of seen elsewhere. 60 percent of them for see a financial crisis coming in china and the next few years. there is certainly a lot of reputable person some believe that china is in for a hard landing.
11:10 pm
look at some of the statistics which have just come out in the last week to. first statistic, industrial production grew at over 12% in november. now it is pretty good, but then that was 1 percent below october . 21 percent in november in real terms. those races january. trade surplus was 14 and a half billion dollars in november depending with a huge beak has deposits number or negative number you think they're doing pretty well in pretty poorly. this is the issue between cars and soft landings. most estimates are that china growth rate this year somewhere between nine and nine and a half
11:11 pm
percent. and next year something like between eight to eight and a half. that is where we call a production. now, what is eight to eight now have? that is a southland. the good growth rate that is more sustainable, a rate that china should be gravitating toward over the next few years. they were actually above the potential because of the program. so a decline of one or one-and-a-half percentage growth rate. that is your good thing. many people write about it. what is a harmony? a growth that augusta cover 6 percent. let me talk a little bit about what that might be. a collapse is not a native rate. two or 3 percent. we need to differentiate. hard landing, soft landing, china. now, what is the potential for a
11:12 pm
collapse for a hard landing? most people see this as a property market. i know much more expert than i am in this area. but let me talk a little bit about why there is a huge variation in terms of how people look to the property market in china. 3045%. 12 percent of gdp is quite high. the presumption is this must be the son of a book coming or collapse. very cool to the fact that china's investment rate went to 30% of virginia years. evidence of a collapse. the number of units which are vacant in china, anywhere from 50 or 60 billion units, 60 -- 15 to 64 million vacancies make people think that there is a bubble of there. so you look at those numbers and think that there is a bubble.
11:13 pm
there is a problem in evaluating the real demand. actually much less urbanizing. there is a potential to save a hundred million, 200 million families. the next few years. a huge demand. 60 percent of the housing is substandard, too small. so there is also a huge potential demand coming out. it wants to build 800,000 portable housing units over the next few years. it has the financing and will go ahead, so we don't know how much affordable housing will compensate for the potential reduction. so what is the likely property bubble in china? i would say, like many things, a property bubble in china is not the normal property bubble that we see elsewhere. is the property bubble with
11:14 pm
chinese characteristics. this is not a sector that highly leverage this. households have very strong balance sheets. but property investment and all the associated investment in china is very, very extensive. associated with the proper development. it slows down and will lead to growth in china. that will certainly have the impact. as they mentioned, suppose trade in the eurozone really collapses whapping in a major recession. the so-called balts mining in china, it could fall by 8% more by itself because of the deterioration in the european situation which would bring it down to 7%. suppose the property bubble got more extensive and pervasive in
11:15 pm
the economy and affordable housing and other sources of demand rise up, maybe down to 6% the elements of a hard landing highly unlikely because we have very strong balance sheets. very low loan ratios. the government step ten. these are all kickbacks. the kind of financial collapse that you will see elsewhere. reserve levels are very high. the budget actually is running a significant amount of surplus, revenue pouring into china, so the budget is quite strong. all the things that the government is dealing with, the potential downhill slide. so i don't see the so-called collapsed being very likely. >> thanks a lot. that is a fairly reassuring
11:16 pm
picture. you agree with it. the domestic challenges in china. >> most important domestic challenge, as i see, agree with most of your concern, to deal with the fairly drastic slowdown of the overall economic process. i think the two camps, different perspectives on the china situation. one camp, the slowdown is the beginning of the end. ten and will now run out of rope and unavoidably run into a hard landing situation. that is the view expressed by the was in the journal. and another view is, which is more my view. a very challenging and difficult situation. in many ways unprecedented, but you have a very competent group managing the situation.
11:17 pm
they feel they can keep this monster under control and use it to their advantage by promoting the structural economic changes that are at the center of the current five-year development plan, the economic restructuring and the economic rebalancing that has been moved more central on the policy agenda because they have to. they have no choice. the slowdown, which is a broadbased slowdown is partly domestically engineered. the government was very concerned about the property bubbles. they set out to deliberately kill the bull. they try to do with greenspan said, to know zero and certainly you cannot control it. the chinese have completely different perspective. they're trying to control that
11:18 pm
bubble. the indications are that since they began to introduce all sorts of administrative restrictions on the ability of households and companies to buy apartments since april of last year this is showing off the property market that has cooled down enormously. the difficulty is to know by how much and what prices are really doing. the worst that could happen in my opinion is a precipitous price decline across the board in urban china. if that happens in 20 percent over a relatively short time frame you're unavoidably going to see a lot of bankruptcies and development, and they will pull in their wake a lot of bankruptcies in the construction industry and in the thousands of suppliers. that has not happened so far. it could happen, and if it happens it will be bad. my sense is that beijing feels
11:19 pm
comfortable that they can keep this under control. they're first line of defense would not be to reopen the monetary spigots as they did in to those nine. the first line of defense, if they fear a precipitous price decline in the property sector now would be to undo some of the administrative restrictions hon house purchasing that they introduced. the two largest cities have decided. they don't tepees investor lift restrictions in place. to me that suggests that they're not worried. at least not yet. says that is the most important domestically engineered source of the slowdown i feel that the chances that china will drop
11:20 pm
down to a hard landing of limited. libya because of the slowdown that is on the external side. mostly european and american and chinese experts, particularly european demand that his job very sharply. but exports on the whole law still growing. they still have a large picture. but smaller than a few months ago, but still large. two dozen 11, they expect the trade surplus of $150 billion. well, compared to $1,805,000,000,000 last year, they would, of course, have deferred to the much stronger export picture than they are confronting right now. again, i don't see any panic. they allow companies that are affected by the slowdown in exports to go bankrupt. hundreds of bankruptcies in the export. beijing is allowing that to
11:21 pm
happen. according to my impressions last week there is a strong sense that this is an opportunity more to push the industrial restructuring to its higher value added production which is in the long-term interest. so they allow this to happen. they allowed to come down. the economic work committee. the main priority, domestic stability. that can be achieved by a prudent monetary policy in the correct fiscal policy. there is going to be a policy response as there is almost certainly going to be to prevent the growth rate from falling too far. they will use fiscal means, which is a very important policy difference. what they did in 2009 when the emphasis was very strongly on
11:22 pm
monetary dispenses. again without being totally confident in my own predictions i am inclined to say that those who feel that beijing will be able to keep this under control and present a hard landing, they're likely to be right. >> you obviously paula china, among others. i am interested in your reactions to this, but also your quantitative guy. how curious would a big slowdown in china the phrase and the rest of the world, domestically induced? the more important question is if the situation deteriorates
11:23 pm
check and play the same positive role as it did after 2008. you have to think -- think through more negative scenarios. you cannot exclude deeper prices. and then we are empty-handed in many countries. in rich countries you don't have the skills base anymore. you hardly have monetary space. many of the developing countries the fiscal position as spirited. what happened after 2008 is that china could basically of floor in the free-fall of the world's production by stimulating their economy. they can't do that in the same way they did in 2008 precisely because it was done to the banking center by creating a lot of credit. you can't replicate that because that is very dangerous. this creates a lot of liquidity and shed a banking. they don't want to do that.
11:24 pm
so the alternative is that you have real fiscal stimulus which is in the better way to do it. the question, can that be as effective as 2008? that is where i'm not overly short. i see china more as many other countries, which in some of the limits of counteracting the downside scenarios that you had to think through. and then the final remark, the issue is not so much that china will likely achieve a negative growth rates because you can have a real crisis in china with a small positive growth rates. it is quite possible that a lot of the financial stability is all based on growth rates of seven, eight, 9%.
11:25 pm
if you have all kinds of loans in the capital rates the banks, the you're right. the government can step in. you can have financial tension in china. so, the message is just like everywhere else, the safety net, so this peak, of policy in china has also eroded. that makes the containing a of the euro crisis even more important. and so my question, maybe you can want to take on. how this china view the euro crisis now said china help europe. >> but me make one comment.
11:26 pm
>> goes down to five or 67. and in some way china's economy will have collapsed because like the united states big domestic economy, trade dependent as of the countries are. the public image of china, export driven economy. not as bad as the exploit. the countries which may be more vulnerable, countries like south korea, japan, taiwan, the philippines, malaysia, singapore . they have been expecting to get 30 or 40% increases in exports to china last for five years. so quite export dependant, more so than people realize. so if there is a demand requirements in china, grope is 80 percent down to seven versus six and to have some of these financial problems, it will rican manages, but i see that there is kind of a country, east
11:27 pm
asia which is, perhaps a larger or not focuses much. that ripple effect is a secondary effect. the totality. going to europe for the eurozone, europe is extremely intrigant important. eurozone, europe is china's largest trading partner, $480 billion a trip last year. europe is china's largest exploit -- export destination, more so than the united states. china gives tremendous priority to europe because, for good, it sees it as a hedge against the united states. so china is very interested in strong europe, and it will try my view to help, although publicly telling other china is quite negative. why the statement coming out of
11:28 pm
china is quite negative, the issue is if you ask the average person in beijing, they ask what you think about the euro problems, the guy said was a china use its hard-earned savings to help lazy people in europe whose incomes the ten times mind. very hard pressed to explain what it means. but the key policy makers realize that under the right conditions being a framework with the europeans are taking the bulk of the responsibility hoping themselves, a framework which is globally agreed upon, off from work in which the u.s. is involved, either explicitly or implicitly, don't discuss too much publicly today, and i think that is a very import
11:29 pm
requirement for china. china will participate, and i think the imf vehicle is the most logical one. it gives a greater assurance, spreads grow around, gives a voice, and multilateral voice call which is what they want. so my view is that under the right circumstance china will help out. it cannot afford not to. europe is too big to fail. >> what i think is less important than what they think. i and grew with much of that. i think china would wish to assist in a rescue for the euros situation if they knew how. after the last summit in brussels, the head of the european stability fund was sent to asia to explore the potential
11:30 pm
asian agreements. .. is not a financial problem. it is between the north and south asia and china by making available hundreds of billions of dollars cannot solve the
11:31 pm
political dimensions of those problems. nonetheless, my sense is that under the right circumstances the chinese would reach the support because europe is important to china. in the u.s. entered world we don't realize that from china's perspective is a more important trading partner in the u.s. and a very important source for china's technical assistance. almost all the members of the european union have the technical assistance in china which is of course not possible at the present time. europe is also the most important source of new technologies. it may surprise many in the audience to be the from china's perspective all that matters is the u.s. relationship is not chinese perspective but wish to assist in the solution if they
11:32 pm
could but they all realized ultimately it is a regional problem between north and southern europe. they have the financial means to come in if they were to cover and it is entirely on certain that this plant most probably they would do it through the imf and i think everybody is encouraging them to think in those terms. if in addition the chinese would wish to purchase equity in european banks or investments in the european companies they would do that not through the volume asked so it would be a two-pronged approach for the imf directly. >> let me ask this. when you found yourself in terrible trouble at the summit of october 27, president sarkozy picked up the phone to president hu jintao of china to ask for
11:33 pm
financial support. he did not call president obama. he called president hu jintao. am i reading too much into this? does this mark a change in global and international relations? is this like the beginning of a new era? would any of you want to pick this up? >> i think we are already. just to go back to the slowdown in china and the importance of that you shouldn't think lightly about the slowdown in china not so much because of the domestic consequences but because of the consequences on the rest of the world. the world no longer depends on the u.s. consumer. the difference of a chinese investor and when it gdp slows
11:34 pm
down a couple percentage points investments will slow down much more and have enormous consequences. so in that sense, the economic importance of china is already very significant. but then to go to your question of china and europe i think there are three reasons for china to support your up. first of all they are a big economic player and they will help to prevent the collapse of the world economy. so if that is needed to prevent the collapse of europe that is one reason for them to help. the second reason is if they want a broad international financial system then the on the that is just based on the dollar. so for that reason over the last five years they have diversified away from the dollar and to the euro so it makes a lot of sutphen to the consents to
11:35 pm
support the your note to have a balanced system a bit of the international financial market ian you touched upon this already. for them it is a way to get a seat to the table and that is indeed why i agree they want to play this through the imf but they want to see something back for that and that is i think for the world economy very helpful this enormous economic power if that's where the progress is very shortly because the established countries are not that willing to just to give them up more space. >> what do you think? >> i think the sarkozy phone call recognizes the reality of the global financial power and we should be involved in these financial issues but to our perspective they are being put
11:36 pm
on such a focal point and they don't like to be drawn into a role they are pleading with i call a leadership role. they like to be part of a group and he is correct they would like to play a more active role but they have to sort out the way to do that. i feel that is where sarkozy's appeal is across europe and gave the sense whether china would want conditionality and with the point of conditionality would be. they do not like to be in the kind of position that doesn't like to see the conditionality is the financial assistance programs have been given with conditions but they also feel of course that would they provide assistance it's between friends and friends help friends. they are looking for something in a way that would help them in
11:37 pm
terms of the standing in the global w ready in ways that are not tied to some thing like the bailout package. >> the goal of the lewicke power to the to -- economic power is a result of the current situation. china is at the center of the east and is by far the largest economy that will become increasingly prominent in the global economy. this is a painful shift for the western countries but it is happening today. i think mr. sarkozy's legendary phone call is an illustration of the reality of the power shift in the financial and economic shift. if you look at it from a global perspective, you might recall the current situation with gordon brown. the first crisis of
11:38 pm
globalization what has happened is that in terms of output production there has been a significant relevant shift already. the east now accounts for 55% of the total global output but is still not accounted for more than about half or maybe 40% of the global consumption. most of the consumption is in the west. most of the production shifted to the east. that is the first crisis of globalization and sorting out the production and consumption unbalances globally. seabeck before i open up for questions from the audience i have one last question of the panel and it's about china and u.s. relations. we have determined of europe to which china we have all the
11:39 pm
other hand the pivot of the united states announced the meeting in hawaii towards asia so it seems like everybody is pivoting towards china to a degree. but how do you read the state of u.s.-china relations with the dispute now the amount of tariffs by chyba and automated imports, what are the risks for china coming from the u.s. china economic political situation? the one to start with that?
11:40 pm
>> the european pet it is welcomed by chyba. they try to strengthen ways with european see europe getting more attention as positive. the american pipit towards china as was discussed a couple weeks ago has raised tension and they see this as a potential resurfacing of u.s. objectives established of a greater return to the doll but it role in the future and i am not quite sure what that means in a security of the military sense. so they have a different kind of perception within chyba. this is an election year coming with the transfer of power to the next generation of leadership next year so these are, these political events are going to complicate the financial economic discussions and it begins with what i call the anticurrency bill in the column grist china feels - about a bushel when the actions from both sides. as you mentioned the tariffs on
11:41 pm
the suvs going into china is being looked at negatively on the health is yet another effort to try to protect its sector and causing alarming problems. china sees this as tit-for-tat in terms of the tariffs to try to produce tires exported to the united states. a very significant the larger significance to the chinese actually is the barriers or provisions restricting u.s. exports. chicken feed account for 300 million exports to china as a delicacy and are useless in the united states but china is trying to restrict those. so it symbols of things they could sort of hit out but which are not exactly what i would
11:42 pm
call big issues because they protect the open trade regime. nevertheless they are concerned and the negative sentiments that emerge in this heated political process both in china and the united states is going to cloud what i would call for trade financial relations the two countries. but where the trade is the big issue today the technology transfer tries to copyright the tensions which are showing in that area are probably more important to the future. the solyndra solar panel case to what extent the u.s. should be promoting the development of the technology here, to what extent is it subsidized here, to what extent is china substance at stevan corrine technology industries in china and a big way. a competition called the fallout will be a big issue because of all we are the companies suffering but you are going to see kaj 40 come of 50 to 60%
11:43 pm
been wiped out. so it is a problem that activates producers of both sides and they will see it is a problem shared rather than a problem that is one side or the other. >> - both sides realize how incredibly important these financial relationships are. it's not a subject on which i claim to have a lot of expertise but it's obvious that the relationship is totally extremely important but extremely stressful. this is stressful because there is a basic lack of trust between the two giants the united states and china. one of the biggest victims of the 2008 financial crisis i feel is chinese respect for the
11:44 pm
american economic system in particular. that is hard to measure dictum of the crisis but it is an important because there has been a very subtle shift i think in the chinese perceptions of the united states prior to the crisis although that was never explicitly expressed it was very clear the exception of the political system, the american economic model is what they aspired to. my sense is that it's disappeared now but china feels the model isn't so bad after all it maybe they have already done enough in terms of economic reform. that is a very dangerous conclusion if it takes hope of the decision making process up the top leadership. i'm still hopeful that is not the case during the recent debate last week i was surprised
11:45 pm
by how many people kept searching for the financial sector reforms. that was a big surprise to me. another encouraging element is just prior to my visit you have a fairly high level discussions in beijing after the announcement that they would go forward with the arms deliveries to taiwan at the beginning of the year let's call it on the bill to bill relationship which i believe has to be a pivotal part of the relationship. fortunately, for reasons i don't claim to understand, the situation evolves in a more positive direction and serious discussions were held the in beijing just prior to my visit last week. >> anything to add?
11:46 pm
>> i think the sections we discussed but also the discussion of the currency. they illustrate the rise of china is not a smooth process and the fact that the united states has to give some of its dominance in the looking forward which because it can go into more areas. if more a of a more chinese companies want to invest in the united states which will be very natural process there are other potential sources for the disputes if the chinese companies start competing more directly with u.s. companies then you have more friction. if chyba becomes a more dominant player in the financial markets did you have more conflict. but i think it is a tight, you
11:47 pm
shouldn't overemphasize the importance of the relationship between china did the u.s.. sometimes you think it's the leading that matters a we have a tool in the world will lead to countries who are dominant and that is actually not true. we are moving towards a multipolar world if you look a couple decades ahead of the importance of the developing countries outside of china is more important. there are a lot of others that are coming up and to focus on its relation with the united states normally with europe but to the goals of the relation with the other emerging countries. seabeck excellent. i would like to open up and out to the audience. introduce yourself to read affiliation name before you ask your question. the gentleman in the middle.
11:48 pm
please stand up and tell us who you are. >> thank you for organizing this even with the news agency. my question is related to the additional resources for the panel three recently if reluctant to keep it to the 200 additional resources european countries haven't gotten the 200 billion for so should the united states and china stepped in or out for additional resources at this particular time? for the united states, due to the strong opposition from republican senators, we haven't given the 108 billion euros
11:49 pm
promised in 29 and for countries like mexico and china the additional resources in the voting share so this is my first question. secondly, there is also differences among the important players for countries like germany do you want resources going to the general resource account to force more discipline on the european nations and for countries like the united states they want money going to the account to reduce the contingent across the membership so how should the country is solved the differences? thank you >> good question. but we take a couple more and then we will come back. the gentleman here in the front.
11:50 pm
after that the gentleman who just stood up. >> i'm with the world affairs council. i know the people basically thinks that a hard landing is unlikely in china but if there is a hard landing, what do you think would be the political impact on july the? you already talked about a lot of bankruptcy. with bankruptcy would come a lot of orman blight people. this is the time there are a lot of protests in china about heavy-handed activities of various kinds. what we see some political ferment in china? >> the gentleman that stood up before, yes. >> a ibm a retired and i see the topic that you have chosen on
11:51 pm
the global economic outlook i wonder whether you can't really exclude countries like brazil and india. at the end you mentioned the multi global development so i am wondering whether you can really ignore them pish and the second thing is i was surprised that you did not even once mentioned employment. in one of the countries you mentioned there is no doubt that the next election will be heavily influenced by the significant unemployment. the shifting of consumption and production, how come you did not also mentioned employment and changes because they are so important? >> let's take these three questions in reverse order and it's okay with the panel to answer the gentleman and the
11:52 pm
impact of politics and i will give a stab at the question middle while. >> i couldn't agree more with the last question. but a lot more is important and we were able to discuss here. i briefly mentioned the slowdown in brazil and india but that is a very important phenomena and important for the global economy you see a sharp slowdown in the last say four months to a large extent due to the domestic policies, to a large extent the reaction to a very sharp increase in domestic demand before and those are independent developments that interact with the rest of the world economy but should be considered and are considered when we are doing our
11:53 pm
global economic prospects. the end of the unemployment issue is incredibly important. i find even broader when we are talking about the income countries we have to realize we are not talking about a normal recession or downturn but that there is a far bigger toll structural problems of the country's of a lack of growth in duty to fundamental changes to come out of this situation and all ready for years we are talking about the fact that it will take many years before you undo the day image that was done in 2008 which by itself is a problem but it normally takes many years it also takes structural reform of the political system is not ready to take those so that is important and a very difficult problem. if you are looking at the middle east and what is happening there, of course.
11:54 pm
you have the link with unemployment and the structural changes also. i agree there is a lot that should be thought about. >> league between economics and politics? >> the papers are full of the discussion of this issue in the village where the 15,000 residents are protesting at the top leadership to negotiate what i call a fair outcome. this is indicative when i would call a large increase in the social unrest in chyba so if you have a hard landing to make things worse obviously it would make things worse but from this point if you try to ask what are the so-called economic factors which are likely to in hinge upon politically related sensitivities or social unrest i would cite a couple. if you look at hu quin is over
11:55 pm
land rights and how it's developed and who owns it. the major issue in the urban areas have not been able to deal with this so this is a source of tension in many instances of what i would call political disputes in china. the second issue is what would happen if you have a collapse over the disparities and the disparities in chyba are largely of spatial nature. it is not unlike what is in the united states so that is not the inequality that matters. the inequality that matters is to rule in committee, these three in the half, the highest in the world so that is a source of tension between what is happening to the countryside in the cities and how you deal with this. of the third issue has to do with whether i would call the social protection programs and chyba are they going to be strong even if we have a
11:56 pm
collapse in programs and china are not as strong as they should be or ideals so the collapse if you have a collapse we have to ask what is going to increase the tension over resources and the answer is it will because in light of the source of revenue you will have problems in the localities. inequality will increase or not it depends upon who will be hit most by that and will the government have the programs to deal with this and i think the programs are by the state of developer did disabilities. -- before. peter? >> specifically on the question of social unrest becoming a political in nature and response to the heart lamb big i think that was your question, sir. it's important to realize there is a lot of social unrest in
11:57 pm
china. 9% growth. rising wages. how much of that is political in nature is hard to ascertain. my sense is that most of the social unrest in china is focused on local grievances, and fair compensation problems and things like that. if it were to drop to the heart landed situation 5% or so it's likely that the social unrest would intensify i cannot answer that question shall what will happen after that. this government has been able to make high growth and in spite of that the social unrest is of the rise. the microblocking which has become prevalent in the last 18 months is surely of the one hand
11:58 pm
a source of greater grievances because they could be easily shared in all the other hand it is also a safety valve on the system people can express their systems more safely through the internet. it's very hard to say. my overall sense is that china is politically stable much more stable than people realize. >> let me take a stab at the question. first point i want to make is i think it's good news that the year autozone has committed its $200 million if i remember correctly just in the last few days to increase the imf's resources, general resources. i think that is the good news. the u.k. has not said they will not contribute.
11:59 pm
they said they would consider a contribution early in the new year if they would prefer to do with the context of the broad g20 initiative. the u.k. is a little at the moment in europe for all the reasons you have been falling and indeed it is a undergoing debates on the previous agreed expansion of the imf resources and i am with one or two others among a very small number of people who are actually to propose in but even devotee escalation of the european crisis that would threaten the
12:00 am
stability of the global financial system in that event increased imf resources should be directed to europe and the that requires a u.s. contribution as well as a chinese contribution. .. there is a coordination problem, but in the end you cannot say we
12:01 am
will not rescue. it just doesn't make any sense. >> hi, my name is randall doyle. i work for the state department. at itasca geopolitical statement that connects with everything you've talking about. china historically has always liked internally for enemies or potential prop ones. with the recenthe kim jong il, americans announce the military base and darwin in western australia, huge energy base in asia which they see as somewhat of a caused the tribe. without these pressures on the cover back on how is china going to react? obviously it's a huge domestic problems. even though we talk about how they had the money, i think we are kind of shaky non-with what
12:02 am
they see as potential circumvents, maybe not an aggressive, but it does appear to many people that we have a policy. as a to ask mr. bottelier if the americans are redefining the architecture in the region. how are you going to respond to that? i think this is a huge battle that will take place in the leadership in the next coming government. don't think the chinese won't go through the leadership in the next of all this going on locally. i think it's extremely sensitive. >> thank you. welcome back to that and take a couple more. what have the lady there that. i will come to you as well. >> thank you. with china's 21st century newspaper appeared as he said, china hot to provide financial
12:03 am
assist them to help the european countries if the conditions are ripe. and if i understand correctly, one of the condition thought to be that the u.s. also contribute however, so far the u.s. government is very good to even talk about the possibility of providing resources. not to mention in the congress already a few members raised her eyebrows even before this issue became a fully engaging the issue. so my question is, do you think now is the time for the u.s. to seriously consider providing initial assistance to european countries thank you. >> yes, i just said it. yes. the lady here, yes. >> thank you. molly williamson american academy of diplomacy. first, thank you for this very vital presentation.
12:04 am
my question is the u.s.-china relationship around two vehicles. one, and they have related obviously his energy and the other is the environment. the united states and china are the number one and number two and polluters of a planet. are there ways we can work together? the disposition of many at least in this country is to see things and more competitive rather than cooperative turns. are there alternative ways to work together? >> good. maybe we'll take one more and then come back to the panel. there is a hand fair at the back. melissa right they are. >> thank you for illustrating an
12:05 am
thompkins e. center. i'm wondering if the panel could comment on chinese bilateral engagement with individual european countries, specifically on the periphery i think there's been some investment deals with greece, spain, portugal. how would this effect are handy for see this affecting overall e.u. policy towards china community in the areas of human rights environment rp protections in maybe to jump the gun a little bit, but how do you see european high-technology transfers towards china? what does china want in return? is it too far to jump the gun to they are looking for weapons or arms? d.c. that is the possibility of opening up? i think this was an issue with chinese e.u. relations in the past and how do you see this playing out in the future? thank you are a match. >> okay, maybe train to come you want to start us off on the question of the geopolitical
12:06 am
situation. u.s.-china, and china, located, the basis, et cetera, how do you see that. i will ask you as well. >> eighth-grade concern to the united states. the global shifts about which we were speaking i think also reflected in in the strategic changes in the strategic equation. and you mentioned some of them. i am not so sure that the chinese know exactly where they are heading themselves. i think they've put claims to express deep worries about the american presence in durban. but there is there really is worried about it is the public are not seem to suggest, i don't know. don't forget that only 30 years
12:07 am
ago these questions were completely a diet deleter screen. nobody gave it any thought. i think we should be careful not to jump to conclusions about china's attitudes on these changing strategic patterns. my son is that they wish to become a global power, and that they will wish to become not only a global economic and financial power, but also in military power and a strong regional ability power that poses enormous challenges for the u.s., more than for any other country in the west of course. it would require a lot of patience and wisdom to do with these challenges in a way that will channel this energy is in a stable direction. china is ceasing beos.
12:08 am
>> just add a few things. on the geopolitical, it's a tough issue for china. they see the pivot as increasing tensions in the region. they also see that the pay that was something that they actually inadvertently encouraged because it took relatively hard lightning and the police think that with the several years. so i think that the government has reset the issue is the best way to deal with any of what are called the military security issues is to try to soften china in ways which are seen as more of a partnership collaboration. otherwise it would just encourage more of these tensions. particularly in the year i went to the leadership change, they don't want more stress. so that's why i think the short-term. the longer term is also depending upon what the u.s. reaction and too many false. and then when you have a new government in china, i is short
12:09 am
and long-term are different. on the climate change issue, i would just like to emphasize that to me it's very interesting thing. in the united states here, we've seen very heated debates about climate changes and locations on a scientific racist. there is not a heated debate in china on this. the reason is they count 95% technocrats. democrats get a scientific information and on my personal opinion. they look at it and say they must be climate change. we've got a problem. i leadership are not scientists. they like to debate thoughts of being sick is much more personal opinion above. so personally i feel china is committed with these environmental goals, but they are hung up on issues of target, whether it should be treated the same as developed countries, but the commitment is certainly they are. there's also a strong commitment in a public sense in the united states. so i think there should be ways to collaborate.
12:10 am
the collaboration is tricky. the technology has texts are likely to continue, but she's got a problem because the broad-based manufacturing aspects of the policy are likely to be done in china. and the question is, is there potential for collateral relationship? poky be a very strong example of yes, there is. apple. apple's technology is developed in this country. 55% of the revenues that this will be worldwide accrues two things for spurring the economy. but apple manufactures in china. that is a win-win in some way. and so, to me that is the same issue of climate change to allergy. can you find one which captures a national advantage of both sides in the way both sides feeling they get something out of this. right now politically, certainly the united states does not feel that is what are called the
12:11 am
necessary share to make this a true partnership. do not connect to follow up on the climate change issue and how you achieve more cooperation to solve a global problem and to provide the global public good. more cooperation between the united states and china, but more generally more cooperation between the income countries and the developing countries. what is needed is that there will be a fundamental change in the dynamic of the process. so now, the process has always been that the income countries come up as solution and then they give it to developing countries. they are looking at it looking at it and i say okay, that is too much of the carrot or a stick so vested interested in some countries in the climate change proposals are a very good example of that. so i am not interested. by the way, it is your problem, so thank you very much.
12:12 am
in many other areas yet the same kinds of dynamics. for high income countries think globally from their own vested interest in trying to push it through in the three other countries. what has to change is that developing countries start thinking globally, start thinking not just about the economy, but think about the global problem and from the vested interests of developing countries, which still need to grow and still have a lot of property, the global solution would be on the table. and then the high income countries should start reacting to that. and i think what you saw it in durban is the smallest in that direction, where china was under a lot of conditions, but much more committed than before. and also other developing countries are willing to think through being part of the global solution. and then he changed the dynamics. but we are not there yet.
12:13 am
we are not there yet for two reasons. first of all, many developing countries have not found their voice yet to think globally. and the income countries are not ready to risk youth. but i think it's absolutely necessary to get those global solutions. >> does anybody want to pick up on the european investment? chinese, european investments, what the europeans want? >> the way i understood the question is, what is the chinese relationship this individual european countries in addition to china's relationship with brussels. my sense is that the chinese are playing both sides and had syriac relationships with individual is a major european countries. and the european institutions in brussels. there is a high-level strategic
12:14 am
dialogue between brussels and beijing, which precedes the strategic dialogue between the united states and china by quite a long time. this was instituted already in the late 80's and has been going ever since. the american dialogue was started as a high-level by secretary paulson and the w. bush administration and i think it's an extremely important one. again from china's perspective, europe is very important. it's not always the most important trading partner, but it's an important source of new technologies as its technical assistance that comes from brussels, which is a large program for china, but also from the individual member countries. >> other questions? yes, the gentleman in the middle. >> i'm at the isc. i just got back in two weeks in
12:15 am
beijing and i'd like to get the panels are you on something that disturbed me a little bit. i had a lot to do with younger people and for the first time i heard the sand. they were expressing their irritation at the controls put on them on the internet, news, various things. i was wondering that if the panel has to view on whether that's an exception for something new starting to happen within the country? >> carl doering here at the front and then the lady dare. yeah, melissa. >> thank you very much. i have a comment followed by two questions. the comment is another question we seen clearly and how well the government seem to deal with so many issues. so i first question is picking up on the discussion we see this race is trade fictions
12:16 am
increasing. my question is to what extent do you think in the context of common elections this committee is reaction? the second question as we see in the most general systemic thing the success of the system that people didn't think would perform so well. at the same time we see tremendous crisis of market oriented democracies that are having trouble dealing with the fundamentals of the economy and brick structural change because of population are coming out of the fiscal crisis. when you think the west will get real about dealing with these things? political systems focus on short-term. politicians don't want to talk about the kind of belt tightening is necessary to deal with this longer-term fiscal financial issues coming off of the crisis in population structures provably take? >> the last question was relating to china, right?
12:17 am
although more broadly. >> where china doing very well. we see market oriented democracies having a lot of trouble dealing with the things that have to be done to deal with the fallout of the financial crisis in a much more competitive interdependent global economy. we see a lack of reality here in washington and europe dealing with these issues are what is it going to take for it to sink in and deal with it? that is illegally done in question. >> good. there was a lady dare. >> and mark richardson from the university of maryland. i went to go back to the yours on christ says and push a little bit on your assertion about a coordination problem. certainly today we've heard
12:18 am
tremendous evidence there does seem to be a great coordination problem. everybody is interesting. europeans and european development bank. but a major source of a solution and at the same time that the u.s. needs to step in and chinese tea to step down. the chinese are reading for everybody else. the u.s. is perhaps caught it has some problems. i am that seems to be sitting back and waiting for europe to be the central motivator for this as well. so my question is really looking for a sliver of hope about how to coordination problems can get solved, both if europeans go to greater extent than they have so far to solve the problems and if they seem not to the problem seems to unravel more and more, where's this initiative going to come from beyond just the opinion doing what they need to do to get the multilateral concerted great power cord nation and as well?
12:19 am
is a process question i think. >> wary. okay, so we have a question on the internet. and we have the question about protection in china. we have other questions. >> well, just very quick on the youth issue and concerns about the restrictions on the internet in individual life is generally outdated. at least increasing in china. we have to realize that this is essentially the generation coming that has no direct contact or context of the cultural revolution and the aftermath in the state. the excesses as we dealt with was very hard because we had problems. they obviously don't see that as
12:20 am
a necessary aspect of their country. so the government coming down the charter and its restrictions is an increase. it will also increase because the employment has employment opportunities getting more serious in the coming years. they doubled the graduates that have been coming out. as a general sense university is getting restless. >> good. protectionism. at the risk of protectionism under the new government. peter, will make a difference? >> we don't know what the government is going to look like. we think we know some key features that will play a central role at the government level huddle will cover that will change its policies and attitudes on trees is very hard to predict at this point. you'll have a wholesale change
12:21 am
at a level and the central committee coming at the opening of the 18th party congress some time at the end of 2012. if anybody feels confident predict and what impact the house on cheney state policy, i'm not one of those. i came away from just my most recent visit. the people i talked to at least are keenly aware of the importance of china and open trade channels. they of course would like to have a dig at the u.s. sometimes time with the recent introduction of countervailing duties on vehicles, trucks and suvs. i don't know how important it is. personally, it's not so important that the prevailing opinion in beijing is to go for an open trading system as much
12:22 am
as they can. they've benefited from the open trading system and from wto membership than any other developing country and is very few people in beijing who question that. so yes, there'll be trade frictions, particularly with the u.s. but on balance, i would expect china to open up even further. >> do you want to take a stab at the second question on the statue reforms that are needed in the longer-term reforms needed to reflect this big global change and why they're not happening quite >> let me link it to some of the other questions also. let me start with the coordination issue in europe because to some extent it is a structural change also. i think first of all it is important the observation that it is a coordination problem.
12:23 am
and not everybody agrees with that. many analysts at the moment say that the problem of europe is actually too much coordination and you don't have the flexibility in individual countries to do your own staff and to have your own current fee and reacting your own way to your own problems. and i would agree with you that actually it is a coordination problem. the fundamental problem in europe is that the individual countries are too small and that they are too integrated to individually to the problems. one of the big problems in europe at the moment is that you have to rescue banks and you have to supervise banks and that is still done that an individual country level and that creates a fiscal problems in many countries and then has to be solved and goes back to the banking or. and because it's all organized in individual countries, it's very difficult to get coordination because their
12:24 am
different interests in the different countries. i'm ultimately optimistic that also european leaders, but also ultimately the european parliament understand that the only solution is to have certain issues were sensibly organized. and in that sense, i must say that europe is now ahead of the united states and attacking the current issues because in europe at least, both for the european union, steps are taken to sophomore longer-term issues. if you look at individual countries like italy and portugal, if you look at the reforms that they are implementing a moment, a lot of these long-term elements in there. that is indeed ultimately what is needed. the big problem in high income countries is that all the discussion is about now and backward looking and it's not based on the vision where you want to be. a final question on the point of
12:25 am
social unrest in the inability of government to deal with that. i think peters said it also already, but it's interesting to observe that it's not just a problem when there are adverse developments. it is as often a problem when you have success story. and so in china, you have the educated old that now or in a very different way educated and even 10 years ago. in china you have the emerging middle class that wants to have a say. but in the middle east, it was not just poverty. he was the fact that a lot of people came out of college with a higher degree than in the past, but couldn't get a job. and many of those examples where it is very difficult to deal with the consequences of progress. and i think the ultimate example you see in the high-end countries that moment, where you have a lot of progress, but the
12:26 am
politics is no longer able to take the next step and you are stuck i'm losing with the rest of the world. >> good. before you ask women around if there is one, on the euro question, the process as you asked, i think the first step of the process has made progress in the last week or two. the first step of the progress, the first step of the process is the europeans have put in a significant additional chunk of change. the european central bank has significantly step up its report to the banking system, issuing now three-year loans against less demanding collateral
12:27 am
requirements. this is very much part of the safety net. and everybody knows, although it is not official or explicit or admitted that the european central inc. is acting at the moment to stabilize the bond market. and i think are very good reasons there is no explicit policy on not. in order to maintain pressure on the countries in the delivery to undertake reforms. so i think the first step is they are. i think the second step would probably come through some kind of g20 coordination. that is where the serious -- one serious discussion to place on the message that came up from the last meeting of the g20 with the europeans first have to get their house in order and they have to come up with a credible
12:28 am
plan and they have to put money on the table. i don't think they have done that to the extent that they shed, but they have made the progress that i've mentioned so far. to be perfectly frank, i doubt whatever process you put in place that you are going to get a very large involvement outside of europe unless the united states is in the lead. so you now, you place your bet. how might have been? unfortunately, it might happen on the u.s. just like the top program was resisted and caused a first rejected by the congress and caused a financial panic and accepted by the congress. that kind of circumstance might
12:29 am
develop. and then i think, you know, treasuries around the world are going to be in the phone to each other and the keystone of those are going to be caught, et cetera. and then the situation might change. i don't know. but i do believe that it's very unlikely that a large package will be negotiated without u.s. involvement. any other questions? i think we will take one more round and then we are going to foreclose. if there is one, the lady there. >> thank you. the name is mr. dillion and i must the washington bureau. i am chinese, but i am going to ask a question on the u.s. economy because in recent weeks think the annual economic indicators including the surging housing data and lower unemployment rate and some
12:30 am
growing statuette and also the release moral rule will probably be positive as well. so my question is, can we take the science as u.s. economic recovery? and because as you mention, the upcoming presidential campaign next year. so what effort do you think the government should make the most in order to prep the u.s. economy? thank you. >> okay, take one more and then we'll turn it over to the panel. i'm also going to ask them to make any final 32nd interventions they want to make. >> genuine advice of americans. i follow up with her question and would like to link a few other points being raised earlier. we talk about global. so you touch on a euro a share market and will you touch on the
12:31 am
shanghai cooperation organization? and would you also touch on the issues of the approach of the u.s. and tpp, hot china react to that? and related to energy and her questions about the economy, how would you say the future investment of china and the u.s. as manufacturers in creating jobs in this country? >> okay. that's the last number of questions. i'm going to ask you to pick a couple of them, yukon and trained to. but first, hans, do you want to comment on the question of the united states and also give us your 32nd spurting message?
12:32 am
>> a positive news in recent days in the united states is good news because it shows that the u.s. is not fighting to get with europe and the recession. it is not good news because now all the problems are over. this is a kind of rebound that comes after a very weak first-half year. and so, you should look at it in very cyclical turns and almost as technical changes, but not as administration that the fundamental problems have been solved. in the u.s., investment in the housing site or is the one third below where was before the crisis and probably it should remain very low. so you can't get the recovery from the small recovery in the housing sector. u.k. recovery from restructuring the economy that we are far from not. so i have seen it in a positive
12:33 am
way. all her income countries, including the united states. my last 30 seconds is very much in line with the question about all the other events in the world. i am always surprised that in these discussions we never touch on africa, for example. if you look ahead, then there are fascinating development in africa. many countries are growing 6% a year. many countries have seen fundamental reforms in their economy. it is a continent which is very rich in resources can potentially benefit a lot from the chinese interest in 10 years from now when we look back you say hey, something happened in africa. we already talked about latin america in the moment, what the situation now is fundamentally
12:34 am
different from what it was 10 years ago and they play a very different role in the global economy. and that means for me that in these discussions we are still too much focus on what is happening in the income countries, but the world is getting weaker and weaker. >> thank you, hans. yukon. >> one quick comment whether it's the shanghai cooperation conference for the east asia icm plus one plus two plus three plus six as you go here. it's getting confusing of course because these are country groupings and they have overlapping responsibilities whether it's on trade or financial security. so i think there's going to be some sheep in the future as to how much is a sensible overlap and how much increases the focus. they had some views about some of these things not working out the way they would like.
12:35 am
on the tpp, my personal view with the very sensible ones. i find that hard to see how you can go address the subject is it that a china participation. that strikes me as odd and that is that china is asking themselves should view or why is this not a groupie that we are being asked or encouraged to participate in is supposed to be excluded. the shanghai cooperation is essential asian chemist soviet security issues that the the particular region here. the last comment i would make is what i think i've come up in the course of the discussion. china's global links i really important to china. it's very much in favor of the opening economy. it wants to increase the capital flow of things. not so much the money coming in, but the big issue for china is how do we actually increased the flow out? of thought is not only
12:36 am
established relations, but the flow out is the likely challenge to reduce pressure on the r&d depreciation. you've got to encourage more flow out of china and it should. if you look at the former soviet union when it fully open up its trade capital account, what you saw was the soviet currency collapse actually. it collapsed not because it makes sense. it collapsed because soviet firms realize the days spent to diversify their holdings. so riche eking a portfolio has changed the value of the future. i think that's a big issue moving up there. >> i can say those questions. take your pick. >> yeah. well, the global economic outlook is extraordinarily on their tuning complex at this
12:37 am
point. and it is so uncertain because the three major economic pillars, the united states -- i should say the native states, europe and china are all facing very difficult decisions. if the u.s. is unable to come to the longer-term fiscal issues facing this country, it's hard to be optimistic about the long-term u.s. outlook. if the europeans are married able to come up as a possible solution for the euro, it's hard to be optimistic about europe. china is in a way perhaps the least troublesome of the three in the sense that the economy still is growing very fast at the moment. although layoffs in the manufacturing sector that we're observing don't translate into the higher levels of unemployment.
12:38 am
china's manufacturers still raising. it shows you that this is still a fast-growing economy in spite of the slowdown, which is broad-based and has been going on for the last 12 months and will continue waiting for the next 12 months. i don't want to discount the risks and i cannot really assess the political risk, but on the economic side, i think there is a high probability that china will be able to manage the slowdown in such a way that they will actually benefit and the amount of restructuring received at the externally balance is slowly coming down. the current account surplus as a percentage of gdp is unlikely to be higher than the three and a half% this year compared to 11% in 2007. the domestic consumption growth rate at least, although the data is not conclusive, suggests that the extreme imbalance between
12:39 am
china's share of consumption in gdp, the lowest in the world, may have taught them out. the last events seem to suggest that household consumption has been growing faster than gdp, which is what is needed to bring about the restoration of balance on my site. the big concern i have of course is that the leadership change is in 12 months, that the new team will make big mistakes. they have not correctly assess the nature of the problems in the china begins to make big mistakes in their policy framework, then all of that has nothing to karen t.'s china's success. >> thank you, pieter. well, my 30 seconds is to resume with hans' comments.
12:40 am
hans said the world is getting bigger, so this is one message. the world is getting bigger with china, with a multiplicity in emerging markets. and that of course is a huge opportunity for the united states. in many ways, the united states is the economy best positioned to tap the lead sunday. its innovative capacity. its openness to foreign cultures . its establishment of the rules under which the current global economy operates. but they're also very big risks in the world, just as the world is getting bigger, some of the foreign risks are getting bigger, too.
12:41 am
and none is bigger in my view than that of europe at the moment. so i guess for a washington audience, the message is there a more opportunities out there, but politicians here need to be much more aware of the risks coming from overseas. it is remarkable to me, just out in taylor the policy debate and how concentrated on the micro questions of policy debate has become in this city. this is from the global superpower of the risks that are there. and i believe the opportunities. so i will leave it at that. i would like to thank him on behalf of carnegie and i believe on behalf of all of you they did a terrific job.
12:42 am
thank you very much. [applause] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations]
12:43 am
12:44 am
>> next, a ceremony to mark the 23rd anniversary of the bombing of pan am flight 103. the pain a jet plane exploded killing all 259 people onboard sbus 11 bus 11 on the ground. two libyan intelligence officials were charged with the bombing. we are firm eric holder and john brennan at the ceremony held at arlington national cemetery. this is just over an hour. >> we remember them. john, michael, churned ahearn, sir margaret aker. john david akers stram. ronald eli alexander.
12:45 am
thomas joseph ammerman. martin lewis applebaum. rachel marie as. william derrick tan hack incentives for. jerry don averitt. clare louise takeo e. harry michael bainbridge. stuart murray parkway. she very. julianne maclean canelo.
12:46 am
lawrence and it. >> philip byrne and work strong. alastair david or clay. michael stewart ornstein. stephen russell burrell. no well teddy bear tea. diane boatman fuller. stephen john boland. clan john. paula marie. the call elyse baran shape. francis boyer. nicholas wright.
12:47 am
daniel solomon browner. colleen renée renner. tennessee tried byrne and. >> volant mass boosts. william martin cavin. scott marsh kerry.
12:48 am
laurie kennedy. thackeray to pose. timothy and michael corral. richard anthony tony. eric michael coker. jason michael coker. bridget kim conan. sean concannon. >> tracy jane corner.
12:49 am
willis larry coursey. patricia marie coyle. john bennink comic. joseph patrick curry. william allen daniels. gabrielle dell agrippa. joyce christine dubois wrote. jian frockcoat tomorrow. peter thomas stanley dix. sean t. dixit. david scott gorenstein. michael joseph doyle. edgar howard eggleston the third. charles thomas fisher affords.
12:50 am
>> gretchen choice peter. joann flan again. kathleen mary flanagan. thomas ron flan again. clayton lee select. robert gerard fortune. cctv sprinkling. paul stephan mathieu freeman. james ross fuller. the bully out gabor. amy beth gallagher. matthew kevin cannon. kenneth raymond karpinski. paul isaac garrett. kenneth james gibson. william david keebler junior. actor christopher.
12:51 am
>> shannon david. david jay gould. ally leonora gordon. linda susan gordon gorgacz. madalyn gorgacz. but rudd and gorgacz. nicola jane hall. lorraine france s. buser halasz. when carol cartoony in. anthony lacey hawkins. during henrietta henry. murray's peter henry. pamela elaine herbert. alfred he'll josephine lisa
12:52 am
hudson. john patrick flynn. so cls marion hunt said. roger elwood hearse. elizabeth for dow. paul french actress. rachel jeffries. kathleen mary german. mary lincoln johnson. kennedy powered johnson. jay joseph king m. patricia and kline. gregory kaczkline.
12:53 am
gregory kaczmarski. manas christopher. mary bao lan caster. >> caryn leigh hunt. bonnard hobart barbier. robert milton what burke. william chase labor. wendy and lincoln. void david wadlow. maria teresa murky. william john mcallister. while a bit to billy of the cloverleaf. william edward mack. james bruce maguire e. douglas eugene malakhov.
12:54 am
wendy forsyth malakhov. elizabeth lillian merrick. what was anthony marengo. no well george martin. diane marie maslowski. >> fna johnson. daniel amit mccarthy. robert eugene mccollum. charles dennis mckie. bernard joseph mclaughlin. jane susan melber. john marrow. joseph kenneth miller. jewel courtney mitchell. jane and morgan. eva anderberg morrison.
12:55 am
how ago rachel mosley. ingrid elizabeth swinson mulroy. john mulroy. sean kevin mulroy. mary geraldine murphy. jane adkins murphy. >> christopher andrew johns. karen elizabeth men. daniel amit o'connor. mary denny o'neil. briny elyse outland. glad to von margaret outland. roberts is helipad newco. bora abigail outlands. robert clack o. ends. sir rebecca owings. christos michael papadopoulos.
12:56 am
peter brandon. michael c. pescatore. sir susanna buchanan phillips. frederick stanford phillips. james andrew campbell. >> julianne frances kelley. david plaque. walter leonard porter. pamela outland pozen. william pio. astray asti kwan. i'm over time. anita lynn agreed. mark alan rain. jocelyn reyna. diane marie richard vick.
12:57 am
at no roller. jan ask a bora roller. susanto roller. ana maria groote. paul mark rosen. alexander moore stain. andrea victoria rosenthal. daniel peter rosenthal. my red josephine royal. belize jean serafini. scott christopher saunders. theresa elizabeth jane saunders. johan's autoshow bool.
12:58 am
robert tomas schlag adorer. thomas written scholes. sally elizabeth scott. amy elizabeth she hear out. irving stanley siegel. martin bernard christopher simpson. kerry has said no estado. >> richard paul one i.d. cynthia john smith. james alvin smith. mary at ms. smith.
12:59 am
john somervell. lindsay and somerville. paul somerville. rosalind somerville. james routh stow. geraldine and stephenson. hannah luis stephenson. john charles stephenson. rachel stevenson. charlotte stennett. michael gary stennett. stacey leanne stennett. elliott g stratus. >> anthony swathe. war of the donald margaret swire. mark alex pager.
1:00 am
andrew alexander jurong. arafat anthony tomas. jonathan ryan thomas. mark lawrence tobin. ..
1:01 am
bonny lee williams. brittany lee williams. eric john williams. george williams. stephanie lee williams. miriam luby wolf. chelsea marie woods. deborah lynn woods. joe nathan woods. joe nathan woods jr.. mark james's einberg, we remember.
1:02 am
no go. ♪ ♪ ♪
1:03 am
♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪
1:04 am
♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪
1:05 am
♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ >> we are going to go a little bit out of order. we were going to have bob
1:06 am
mueller but instead we are moving up the attorney general partly because he has to leave and he can't stay for the entire -- stay as long as he can. the attorney general, the position, if there's a job in government that gets more criticism than the transportation security administrator it's the attorney general. i just want them both to know that is not true here. you are both among friends here. we are very grateful for what both of you have done to keep this country safe. the attorney general, a number of people called and said, how did you get the attorney general to come speak? we didn't invite him and we did not invite bob mueller. they wanted to come here and they wanted to talk to us. the attorney general and bob mueller worked on this case 20 years ago when they were in the
1:07 am
u.s. attorney's office. no one knows this case with the exception of ryan murch i suppose better than these two gentlemen. we are really honored that we have friends so high in government that know this case and scare so much about it. i think it is fair to say that is not just professional interest but his personal with these guys. we know that, we know the letter that the fbi director mueller mueller sent to the scottish justice minister, kenny mccaskill, when he released the prisoners on compassionate grounds, an unprecedented letter objecting to it. we also know that john brennan called mccaskill the day before he was released, which was october 19, 2009 and said the same thing, do not release the sky. at eric holder had called
1:08 am
mccaskill back in june and said the same thing. he said if he was released it would be an outrage and it would be a heroes welcome which is exactly what happened. we don't talk about the politics here because this really is to memorialize the people who died here but the best way to honor the people who died is to continue this quest for justice and that is why we were interested in the case and that is why we talked. we are honored that eric holder well, will, and other people will calm. we know that our government and the scottish government is continuing this investigation. we don't know exactly what is going on in quite honestly i don't want to know. i don't want to know the evidence. i don't want the world to know what goods we have on some of these guys so that professor black and others will start already making excuses that it really wasn't a fair trial.
1:09 am
we just want to know that our attorney general is continuing to help us in our quest for justice, so we are honored to introduce the attorney general, eric holder. [applause] >> good afternoon. and thank you mr. giuda in. it is an honor to stand with you and it is a privilege to thank you for the work that you and the other members of the families of the victims of pan am flight 103 have led in your search for healing, for answers and ultimately for justice. on behalf of my colleagues and government and law enforcement, please know that in this search, you are not alone. today, along with deputy national security pfizer john brennan, at the eye director robert muellermueller, assistant
1:10 am
attorney general for justice department's national security division, lisa monaco and so many other dedicated leaders, i am proud to reaffirm our ongoing director to ensuring justice, justice for the 270 innocent victims whose lives were violently cut short exactly 23 years ago today. and for the family members and friends whose lives were forever changed on that tragic day. i also would like to recognize boyd advocate frank mulholland and his excellency, ambassador ali aujuli who have gathered with us as we mark these anniversary and as we reflect on its impact. none of us will ever forget that terrible moment when so many lives were stolen and others shattered by a shameful and senseless act of cowardice. a loss that resulted in the air and on the ground, not only ship the families, crewmembers and
1:11 am
innocent bystanders in lockerbie scotland, they also shocked the world and had a dramatic and far-reaching influence on international affairs, creating a new global community of mourners, supporters and advocates. more than two decades this community has been bound together by a shared grief as well as by a common resolve. and each year, on this day, you have signaled your determination to carry the memories of your loved ones forward and to keep the stories, not only of how they died, but most importantly about how they lived and keep that story alive for future generations. here today on this nation's most hallowed ground, we remember and we pay tribute to each one of them. this year, we also honor the contributions of those who have sought justice on their behalf, including my long-time colleague, brian murkoff.
1:12 am
a prosecutor who for more than today kids has brought the fight for this horrific crime to justice. brian has demonstrated a deep commitment to integrity come the highest ideals of our justice system into the aggressive pursuit of terrorist threats. his leadership and his unparalleled dedication to this investigation has been an inspiration to all of us. in the month ahead, brian's example and contributions will continue to advance this work. and let me assure you, this work will remain a priority for the united states department of justice. as we pledge ourselves to this critical effort and reflect on the lives of those no longer with us, let us draw strength on the fact that what has guided this community for the past 23 years, some in the spirit of unity that has allowed our
1:13 am
nation and international partners to whether countless storms and let us do anything in our power to ensure that in our time, and the lives of our children and in the work of future generations, the memories and the legacies of those we lost will never, ever be forgotten. thank you. [applause] >> okay, here i am trying to get with this might. okay, first off i want to thank all of the readers. some of them are family members, but there were eight that were from syracuse university, remembrance scholars and one lockerbie scholar. and, they came down and we really appreciate it. they were not even born yet in 1988. so, kate thank you.
1:14 am
i would like to now introduce robert mueller, the director of the fbi. he is the sixth director of the fbi after having served for 10 years. he was asked by president obama to serve for an additional two years. director mueller has spent the better part of his life in public service. he has served as a litigator, a u.s. attorney, and an act teeing deputy attorney general for the department of justice. to route his career, director mueller has been a champion of justice and the rule of law. he has been a tireless advocate for those who lost on this dark day, 23 years ago, and a strong source of support for those of us here today. please join me in welcoming robert mueller. [applause]
1:15 am
>> thank you café for your kind words. i and most particularly thanking you for the work that your organization continues to do to seek truth and justice for the victims of pan am 103 and for their families. i am most humbled to speak before the loved ones of those we lost on that terrible day, 23 years ago. the events of december 21, 1988, opened a wound in your heart that will never heal. no words we speak today can lessen the grief you have lived with since that day and nothing can make up for the enormity of your loss. you know there is never closure when one soap cruelly loses a beloved husband or a wife, a father or mother, a son or a daughter, a sister or a brother.
1:16 am
and yet while there never can be an end to your loss and your pain, the families of pan am flight 103 know that pain and loss are not the end. you know that those who committed this evil act do not have the last word. we have chosen to remember your loved ones. you have chosen to seek truth and justice and to work tirelessly to ensure that others will never face the same experience. you have helped us to improve aviation security and to increase the support we give to victims families after such devastating events. and all of these ways your courage and your perseverance have inspired us, have inspired every public servant who has worked in some way on this investigation. your example has become even more important to us in the
1:17 am
decade and the attacks of september 11. you have shown us how free peoples can and must respond to the scourge of terrorism. we must always seek justice now matter how long it takes. we must remember those we have lost, and we must live without fear as we work for a future that is free from terrorism. may your loved ones rest in peace. make god grant you peace in your hearts and may we never tire in our efforts to build a world that is safer and more secure. thank you. [applause] >> frank mulholland is -- has been an advocate since may of
1:18 am
2011. he was solicitor general for four years before that, and is a prosecutor of some 30 years standing. in his first year as florida advocate, he is committed to attending this memorial service. he had long-standing interest in the lockerbie case. he has taken steps along with u.s. colleagues to gather any evidence to bring others to justice and to demonstrate his sympathy and support to family members. [applause] >> thank you. thank you for this wonderful welcome in visiting washington this week. i don't know how you managed it but you actually arranged for scottish weather to be here to greet me. [laughter] and i really feel at home.
1:19 am
i am the new lord advocate of scotland. i was the scotland general for four years prior to the appointed lord advocate. i've been a prosecutor for 30 years. for those that know me, i am very difficult and the more obstacles in my path, see that as a challenge to be overcome. what i want to do today is firstly, pay tribute to those that lost their lives in the atrocity of state sponsored terrorism over the skies of lockerbie and give you my personal commitment and it's a genuine personal commitment, i will do everything in my power to bring the others involved in this appalling tragedy to justice. one of the first things i wanted to do as an appointed law advocate is to take up the cudgel in relation to the lockerbie investigation and i've
1:20 am
been working hard with u.s. law enforcement and with my office colleagues, lindsay miller, to try to put the lockerbie investigation way back at the top of the radar. it still is the biggest of terrorism in the u.k. british soil and of course that includes scotland. so you have my personal commitment and i will do everything that i can to bring the others involved in this appalling acts to justice. can i just say, it is humbling, charlie humbling for me to be here in such sacred ground at arlington cemetery, where there is a part of scotland with 270 -- each representing a life lost in this tragedy. and you have the wishes of the people of scotland and the
1:21 am
support of the people of scotland in your quest for justice which i share. i have a brother and like all families in scotland we like to travel. many of our founding fathers of the united states were scots. i have a brother, an american girl and he is now an american citizen my brother who lives in jacksonville. i think there is slightly better weather than we are facing today. but, i can tell you that my brother when i speak to him on them on a regular basis always asks me about what we are doing to try and bring justice for you and for all of the families of lost loved ones and lockerbie. there is a brief which i have arranged from the people of
1:22 am
scotland to be placed and the reeves says, some simple words. always remember, never forgotten and forever in our hearts. that is a genuine sentiment from me and my colleagues and the people of scotland and it is in both english and gaelic. so thank you very much for allowing me to be here on this wonderful and moving -- thank you. [applause] >> we had a number of calls from the press about the speakers we had here today. they were obviously a very
1:23 am
high-powered group of government officials and we are honored that they were here. but the press being most interested in the fact that the libyan ambassador was going to be here and they were saying, what is he going to say? i don't know what he is going to say. he is a diplomat. he may say nothing. sometimes they're not allowed to say very much. but we do know some of the things that he is has said in the past. the ambassador had been in washington for some time representing the prior administration. as soon as the rebellion started, he defected, in february of this year with some very strong statements. gadhafi was talking about what you is going to do to these rebels. there was going to be a river of blood. he was going to murder them. he called them rats. ambassador ashley said i can't represent this man. and he took down the gadhafi
1:24 am
flag and put up the old libyan flag. we are very interested as i said before and hoping that the new government in libya is going to help us with our investigation. i talked to him about, a little bit about this and i know that gadhafi killed a lot more than our 270 people. he killed thousands and thousands. heap killed 1200 in and one action if that person. thousands have been killed in this rebellion. i never thought that i would say good things about any libyan to be honest with you particularly after i saw the tv coverage of the hero's welcome that megrahi got what that we know that was staged. i know, i think i know what this man stands for. we are honored that he wanted to come here and we hope he can tell us what the new libyan government is going to do with
1:25 am
respect to our evidence. ambassador. [applause] >> good afternoon. thank you very much. i wish i could bring that good weather. anyhow, today is not bad. there is some rain but it's not very cold. thank you very thank you very much for inviting me and thank you very much for that introduction. i am proud to tell you that since i came to this country in 2004, i got to meet some of you you and some of your lawyers. and i told them very straightforward that to the critical issue, and we have to do something about it. we do remember exactly what -- the families and each one has a
1:26 am
story. children suffered, husband suffered, wives suffered, parents suffered, friends, everyone suffered. let me tell you that libyans have been suffering for the last 42 years. there are more than 25 people killed and eight months, more than 25 in eight months and more than 1200 libyans political prisoners were killed before hours. there are gadhafi's victims all over the world. he killed his own people by the hand of sinners. we work very hard and we will work very hard with you and the state department defined the truth which everybody wants to
1:27 am
know. this madman that has been ruling the country for more than a decade, nobody was safe from him and the third victim of course is the libyan people. i would like very much to thank you and thank the government and the president and the congress. without your support, nothing would have happened. the people are suffering and the one who controls libya is gadhafi and his family. there was no army to protect the people in tunisia or egypt. the brigade gadhafi has this for his own security. i never believe, never believe in my lifetime that libya will enjoy one-day freedom. when things start in benghazi on the 17th of february and women
1:28 am
were raped, more than 8000 women and girls and young people were raped and you know what that means in their culture. now we have to work together and mr. sopel and made it very straightforward when he was asked that he said gadhafi is responsible for that. there is no such action that can be taken. there is no way. there is no way. we share your suffering. we share your hard times that you went through, but you have new friends now. you have a democratic country. we will have our first elections in 42 years and we -- now it is clear from both sides that we can boost the confidence which is not really easy for the last 42 years. now you have a partner, a real partner, to work towards the
1:29 am
security not only for the united states but the security of libya and the security of the world. we will help, and you are not alone. the libyan people are with you and whatever i can do here i will be very happy to help you, and feel free to call us. you have a real friend not only only -- but in this country. thank you very much. [applause] >> now, i would like to ask fbi director bob mueller and attorney general eric holder if they would ring our wreaths forward.
1:30 am
i want to thank the choir. they are from tenders church and they have been coming for many years. we always have different weather for them but i'm glad we had a chance and i want to thanked catherine. i think i have enough scars for each one of them. i hope so. don't disappear on me before the end so that i can hand out your scarves. okay, now, frank do you want to
1:31 am
come up? you are next. [laughter] >> john o. brennan. i first heard from john brennan on august 19 of 2009 and he called to say who he was. we determined that he was an irishman and hohl could not did not stand for all over. i would never drive on the street around my block which was cromwell drive, but anyway that's an aside. [laughter] john, john said that he had just spoken to kenny mccaskill. he did it on behalf of the president. the president told him to call mccaskill and say we did not want this guy release.
1:32 am
john's job, don't know how john sleeps at night. he is the guy who meets with the president every day, every morning and tells him all the horrible things that are going on around the world. and he has been involved with us since that day in 2009. we have had several conference calls with him. he gave a speech here three years ago that is on our web site, a tremendous speech, very moving speech, and we were honored that he said he would come again. as i said, we know of his interest and the attorney generals and mueller mueller's and as i say, it is personal. john new people on the plane. john worked for the cia for 31 years. we would not have been able to present the criminal case that we did as ryan will tell you, without the unprecedented help of the cia. they gave us -- they gave the prosecutors sources and methods
1:33 am
that normally they don't do. and the timer was found was actually discovered by the cia. the fbi brought it to the cia so that is how the case was, one of the mage or reasons the case went away did. anyway, i would like to present to you the guy we really did invite first, the most important person we think in the government for homeland security and counterterrorism, john 01 brennan. [applause] thank you john. >> thank you very much frank for that warm welcome and thank you also for leading this organization, which is a remarkable one in which keys the lives, the memories of those we are here today to remember, to
1:34 am
commemorate into honor. i was humbled to speak at the ceremony two years ago and they very much appreciate the invitation to be with everyone again today. and it is wonderful to see, despite the weather, so many people who have gathered here today on this very special occasion. as it shows that while time may pass, memories and love never fail. it is in that spirit that i bring with me the heartfelt wishes of president obama. i met with president obama this morning and i told him i was coming here to join you this afternoon and he asked that i convey a very simple message to each one of you. and that message is that america will never forget your loved ones who were lost on that fateful wednesday night 23 years ago. on an otherwise serene and tranquil december night, over a
1:35 am
small village in southwestern scotland, lockerbie, the horror and the evil of terrorism visited us once again. tragically claiming it as its victims 270 innocent men, women and children. every year since, december 21 has been a very special day for so many whose lives have been touched in some way by what happened aboard pan am 103. because on that flight, and on the ground where our fathers and their mothers are sons and our daughters, our sisters and our brothers, our relatives and our friends, our co-workers and their neighbors, our schoolmates and their teammates, our fellow citizens and citizens of the world. and it is those beautiful lives
1:36 am
that we remember today. we remember fathers and mothers and brothers and sisters who helped make you the people that you are today. sons and daughters their whole lives ahead of them, servicemembers proud to wear the americans uniform. students returning home from the adventures of studying abroad and the littlest ones in the arms of their parents. jonathan ryan thomas and brittany lee williams, both just two months old. we remember them all. we honor them all always, but this year of course there is a special poignancy. unwilling to suffer any longer under the guilt of a cruel dictator, the libyan people with international backing finally cast themselves and the world free, free of the evil of moammar gadhafi, who brought her
1:37 am
legacy of terrorism. so today for the first time, after all these years, we can mark this day. we can come to this hallowed place knowing that finally the regime that was responsible for the loss of 270 lives and many many more has finally come to an end. it has gone from the face of europe. [applause] as individuals, as a nation, we cannot rejoice or rebel the life -- loss of human life and yet it cannot be denied in the end of the living regime, and the death of the libyan dictator, there is at least some semblance of justice. president obama, indeed all of us, proud of the role the united states played in helping to bring an end to the gadhafi
1:38 am
regime. and when that happens, when that regime fell, i firmly believe that the 270 souls who were taken from us all to sin could wrest more peacefully, knowing that we could finally say never again, never again. when that did cater, that murder, finally met his end, president obama collected in the meaning of that moment, especially for specially for you and your families. today i would like to repeat what the president said in his remarks to the nation two months ago and i quote. for us here in the united states we we are reminded today of all those americans that were lost at the hands of gadhafi's tears. their families and friends are in our thoughts and in our prayers. we recall their bright smiles, their extraordinary lives and their tragic deaths. we know that nothing can -- but
1:39 am
we stand together as one nation by their side. that is why we are here today. attorney general eric holder, fbi director robert mueller, tsa director john fiscal, members of the congress, our scottish partners and their libyan friends. because we stand together by your side and part of standing by your side is making sure that the end of a brutal regime does not mean the end of the pursuit of justice. as she said you said in your statement that day, our work is not done and today we want you to know that for those of us in government, our work is not done either. the government's investigation into the bombing of pan am 103 is still open. the indictments against al-megrahi and -- are still pending. we have raised this investigation repeatedly but the new government of libya and the
1:40 am
new leadership of libya understands the great importance that we have attached to this matter and i am pardoned by the words of the libyan ambassador. we are working diligently to gain access to any information or individuals associated with this case. i can promise you this. our commitment to pursuing justice for your loved ones, and for your families, will not waiver. as our nation goes forward, we draw inspiration from you because over these past 23 years, you and your families have shown the american people richer meaning of strength and resilience. in the face of unimaginable loss, you have done just what your loved ones would have wanted. you have carried on. even as you honor their memory, you have continued to live. thank you for allowing me to share this day with you once again and may you find some comfort in knowing that your loved ones live on in you and in
1:41 am
the life of our nation, which will never forget them. thank you. [applause] >> i said who gives him the plaque and they said you do. john thank you so much. that is another speech that is going to go on her web site and we are very grateful. thank you. >> thank you. [applause] >> okay, i have a lovely thing to say about our next speaker, but i'm going to have to make it real fast. last july, brian murtagh retired from 42 years in federal service, 36 of them representing the united states as a prosecutor employed and in several capacities by the department of justice. in 1989 as the usa, the district
1:42 am
of columbia, brian was assigned responsibility for the investigation into the bombing of pan am flight 103. he worked closely with the scottish police round office, the cia and of course with marquice and the other fbi agents in the fall of 1999 and a closed court nation with his scotland and the criminal division of doj. brame presented the case to the grand jury which returned the indictments charging megrahi and fema and others unknown with the murder of 270 victims that we remember here today and every day. there was a beautiful letter that was written by the daughter of one big. her name is tory. it is lovely about how wonderful he was for her and her family in
1:43 am
holland at the trial. i personally remember brian when we got a verdict that megrahi was guilty. i gave him the biggest hug and almost broke his neck. so anyway, i would like to give him this plaque from the victims of pan am flight 103, and this book, looking for lockerbie. it's a lovely book. thank you. >> do i get a hug too? >> yes. did i break his neck? [applause] >> goodness. kathy, frank, distinguished visitors, victims of pan am flight 103, colleagues and
1:44 am
friends, i'm deeply grateful for this award and what it signifies and your warm friendship. diver had the privilege as they mentioned they honor to represent the united states as an advocate for over 36 years. with the right audience. apparently i also became a victims advocate somewhere along the way. no surprise there. has always been about the victims for me. i am julie humbled by tory's letter. i had no idea how a simple act -- basically i came up and they were sitting outside of of the courthouse shivering and i asked them if they had any questions. it had such a profound and lasting impact. doesn't get any better then this letter but it doesn't get any better for the fed particularly retired feds. my only regret is that i wasn't able to do more to bring those all responsible to justice.
1:45 am
but it isn't over yet, not by a longshot. in the counterterrorism section of the national security division of the department of justice, the baton has been passed to my colleague of over 20 years, jennifer levy. jenny, anything you need, just ask. i would also ask the families to give jenny the same level of understanding and support that you have given me. you have always understood when i said come i can't tell you what is happening. you never push and i am eternally grateful for that. to my scottish friends and colleagues, both those here today and in edinburgh and -- i confirmed the same offer, anything you want just ask. i also say to my scottish friends, -- to all my colleagues and eog and the fbi wish you the best in the days to come. it is going to be easy.
1:46 am
please permit me to thank my wife for 42 years, margaret, who is shivering out there with you, who has made many sacrifices while i was away chasing criminals year after year. and to all family members, thank you so much for letting me into your lives. i only wish it had been under different circumstances. god less, see you next year. thank you very much. [applause] ♪
1:47 am
♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪
1:48 am
♪ a?? next to discussion on religion and politics from "washington journal." this is 55 minutes. >> we want to welcome to c-span
1:49 am
on this wednesday morning richard land with the southern baptist convention the religious and liberty commission and jim wallace who is the president ceo of sojourners. thank you for being with us. we are talking about religion and politics and i want to put on the table the "washington times" newt gingrich and nick -- rick santorum. i want to begin by pointing out that in the iowa caucuses the evangelical vote is a significant part of that 20% of the republican electorate and expected to go to the caucuses on january 3. >> guest: about 60% they say of the voters are evangelicals and as last time they seem to be somewhat divided. in 2008 they split their vote among four or five candidates and it looks like this time some of them are going to vote for gingrich and some of them are going to vote for santorum and some of them are going to vote for bachmann is some of them are going to vote for perry. some of them are going to vote for romney. >> host: to these endorsements
1:50 am
make a difference? >> guest: i think it depends on who is endorsing. richard and i are friends and i've been wanting to call you about this. i'm trying to understand how family values, evangelicals in iowa, who care about marriage and care about role models and fathers and husbands, how they are being attracted to newt gingrich. i am wrestling with that. >> host: how which went to that? >> guest: i grew up evangelical and i think it's not just the third marriage come its behavior. when you are having an affair comic means you are lying. you have got to lie to have an affair. you are lying to the most important people around you and i think, think that is the problem. for john edwards, or for newt gingrich. evangelical christians and gingrich is something that does trouble me to be honest. >> guest: they have the same problems the evangelicals who supported bill clinton when bill clinton was president. all i can say is i've talked to
1:51 am
a lot of evangelicals about this and a lot of them do have problems. this is one reason is not getting more support than he is but you have to understand that forgiveness, redemption come the second and third chances are part of the theological dna of evangelicals and so many of them when he says you know i'm sorry i made the stakes and i have learned lessons from my past, and i am now committed to my wife, committed to my church, committed to my children and my grandchildren, they give him a break. i will tell you this, there is a gender gap. i have done a couple of hundred focus group's with a southern baptist because they asked me. everywhere i go, what about newt gingrich? i find that men, evangelical men tend to be a little more forgiving than evangelical women. i think evangelical women want to hear more of what john mccain says. you know john mccain said then that his support among evangelicals when he was interviewed by rick warren and
1:52 am
he said the failure of my first marriage was the biggest regret of my life and it was my fault. >> host: this is from the family leader, marriage bow and a number of republican candidates have signed this out. rimmer -- reach among other items pledging the marital bounds of others and official this a -- constitution supporting the constitutionalist as judges or justices. what world do something like this, this time have -- this type have in marital politics? >> guest: the pledge seems to go all over the place from judicial philosophy to economic philosophy. i think pledge probably isn't something that makes a lot of sense to me and i'm not drawn to that but we would agree on this there is not a separation between the personal and the public like many people want to do. for some it's personal life and
1:53 am
choices does say a lot about the public leadership, so i think integrity of one's personal life and relationships is connected. >> guest: harry truman cut to the bottom line. harry chairman said in would never knowingly hire someone to work for me who cheated on his wife and when he was asked why he said look if you will lie to his wife he will lie to me. a few will break his oath of marriage he will break his oath of office so you can't separate public rallied in private routed. there a lot of people who tried and a lot of folks who tried to do it when bill clinton was the object other than some have tried it with newt gingrich but i think a lot of americans say you know this is just not right. the way a person behaves in private tells a lot about how they will be hit in public. >> guest: i think this is where i'm concerned or troubled by people who were unforgiving of dough clinton for his violations of these ethics and
1:54 am
give newt gingrich a pass. i don't hear that kind of deep lament and repentance from some of the apologies. i was so patriotic i was working all the time and that is what caused me to fail. >> host: let me take it one step further. it was the house that led to the impeachment of bill clinton when he was having his own affair and he admitted that. is there a hypocrisy? >> guest: i would say hypocrisy on steroids. in terms of gingrich's baker in the 1990s, in terms of bob livingston's baker in the 1990s, there's no question. a great deal of hypocrisy and i think that the people have to struggle with this. you know we are -- for giving newt gingrich if he asked us to forgive him is a no-brainer. we are supposed to be good at forgiving people but trust is with the presidency a long way behind forgiveness and i think that is the issue. the issue is whether or not you
1:55 am
want to trust someone that has that past with the presidency. and i think that in a neutral observer would say that one reason newt gingrich has not done any better than he has done in the polls is because of the training of moral baggage that he carries behind him. >> host: let's take a broader look and put it into the context of the chamber behind it, the house and the senate. this is a research form on religion in public life in looking at the break down of house and senate members first of all in the u.s. house of representatives. they are 10 members of the mormon faith, 248 members who are produce income 132 members who are catholic, to muslims, three buddhist and 27 members of the jewish faith. 13 describe himself as others. in the u.s. senate there are five members of the mormon church including the democratic leader harry reid, 56 members are protestant, 24 members of the senate are catholic, 12 are
1:56 am
jewish, three listed as other. your general thoughts, just the makeup of the house? >> guest: sounds a lot like the demographic description of the united states which is what it should. now i do know that among the 83 new members, at least 15 are southern baptist because i made it my business to meet them since they were elected. but it does sound an awful lot like the demographics of the country. we are a country that is a majority protestant country but we have a significant catholic minority and we have significant numbers of jewish and mormon. and muslims and people who are not anything. that sounds like a pretty representative house of representatives. >> guest: i think we would probably agree that religion doesn't matter in the sense of religious test for office but character does. what we are talking about this morning is what is the character of those running for office?
1:57 am
we both say there ought not to be any religious test for office but character matters a lot. >> guest: and competence matters. martin luther once said, martin luther said i would rather be governed by a confident turk than a incompetent christian. of course a turk was a christian. that is an amazing statement. >> guest: i looked at the comments comments rural quote from all of the religious leaders. martin luther was -- and he said confidence that he didn't say i want to be led by somebody who is of my faith because they wouldn't be any good at it. >> host: the book is the divided face of states of america. richard land about faith and politics. what is your message? >> guest: i have a chapter on
1:58 am
the conservatives who say that their mistake is that they too often assume that god is on their side and you can do that. you have to do your best to be on god's side and the problem with the liberals is too often they assume that god does not have a side. i'm willing to acknowledge that god may not have the site when it comes to the balance of payments or trade policy but when it comes to the life issues and that marriage issues, god has a side. god is pro-life and god is pro-marriage. >> guest: my book, why the right gets it wrong and the left doesn't get it, which is a good point. i think both sides get it wrong when it comes to religious and office. >> host: is the president a religious person in terms of his leadership? >> guest: i have and it ended tier and he is the first one of the white house that i knew before he was there. i knew him for a long time when he was in the state senate of illinois. he had an adult conversion. he became a christian in older
1:59 am
life and lisa talk about faith a lot. i know that he is a committed christian as we have talked about it all the time that when he was not thinking about being president. view was not running for the united states. >> host: and yet these are the official figures from mueller of cbs news he keeps track of all these things. since he has been white house he is attended only nine official church -- on sunday. does that matter? >> my view is that every christian, it's better if they go to church and have a church family for the kids in the family. it would be great if you went to church on sundays. he does sometimes. i'm not sure that is a test of office, but i have always said i think it would be good at if the president had a home church. but it is very disruptive to a

152 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on