tv Tonight From Washington CSPAN April 23, 2012 8:30pm-11:00pm EDT
an ounce that we are taking it. nixon told them that because of the severity of the foreign-policy. feel free to just interrupt anything. henry would do it for trivial things and one-day nixon was really kind of ticked off at henry for a variety of things and we were in the executive office building. the far door was opened and it was henry. nixon did not appear to look but i know he knew it was henry. he said to me i think you are right about that. it's time we -- and everything else has failed. he stood in in the doorway obsolete paralyzed. somebody's going to hear that on the tape and say oh my lord. [. colson did bring up the side of nixon. everything they said is true.
it was true humor and nixon loved it. >> according to the treasury department social security and medicare financial status report, the social security trust fund for retirees and disability will run dry in 2033. three years earlier than projected last year. this is 30 minutes. >> good afternoon and welcome. i want to welcome my fellow trustees from the treasury and take this opportunity to thank the chief actuaries, steve gossen rick foster and their staffs brought their hard work on these reports.
every year as you know the social security and medicare boards of trustees issue reports to congress on the strength of these two indispensable programs, and we just minutes to complete this year's financial review and to transmit to congress the final reports. millions of americans rely on social security and medicare for income and for health care, and billions more will do so in the future. as today's report makes clear these programs have the resources they need to fulfill their commitments to the american people for years to come, but what these reports also reinforce is that we must take steps to keep these programs hole for the future. pressures on these programs are mounting and americans are living longer and the number of retirees is growing. the reports project that's when considered on a combined basis, social security, retirement and
disability programs have dedicated funds sufficient to cover benefits for the next 20 years ago but in 2033, incoming revenues and trust fund resources will be insufficient to maintain the payment of full benefits. after that time, dedicated funds will be sufficient to cover about three-quarters of full benefits. medicare's hospital insurance trust fund will have resources sufficient to cover benefits until 2024, the same year as was projected in last year's report. their projections in this year's report however, are somewhat more pessimistic than last year's projections. for the combined social security and disability trust funds, the 75 year actuarial imbalance is up 4/10 of a percentage point. this is in large part due to the trustees assumption of lower real wages over the 75 year projection period. with regard to medicare, the
projected actuary of imbalance of the trust fund has increased by 6/10 of a percentage point due to changes and cost production, projection methods recommended by the 2010 and 2011 medicare technical review panel. while uncertainties surrounding these 75 year projections is very substantial, nonetheless, these reports emphasize the importance of building consensus on reforms that will put these programs on a sounder financial footing for the future. the affordable care act began this process with the most significant entitlement reform in decades. that law includes measures to strengthen medicare by reining in health care cost growth. and one of the most important things we can do now is to preserve medicare -- to preserve medicare is to implement the affordable care act fully and effectively. more needs to be done and that
is why the president has put forward a detailed plan to further reform and strengthen medicare. by the beginning of the next decade, this plan achieves the same amount of annual health care savings as the bipartisan plan proposed by simpson-bowles. the president's approach would lower costs by changing the way we pay for health care with new incentives for doctors and hospitals, eliminating excess subsidies to prescription drug companies and asking the very wealthiest of seniors to pay a little more. the president is also committed to keeping social security strong for future generations, particularly as more private employers move away from defined benefit plans. in his state of the union address last year the president outlined a set of principles for reform. these principles emphasize the importance of finding a bipartisan solution that strengthen social security and does not hurt current recipients, does not cut benefits for future generations
or tie the program to the stock market. as we work to strengthen social security and medicare it is critical that the reforms are slowly phased in over time so current beneficiaries are not affected and future beneficiaries do not experienced precipitous changes. at the same time, adjustments to social security and medicare must be balanced and even-handed. we will not support proposals that sow the seeds of their destruction in the name of reform or they shift the cost of health care to the seniors in order to sustain tax cuts for the most fortunate americans. social security and medicare are the twin pillars of retirement security in this country. they are,, as president obama has said, expressions of the fact that we are one nation. these programs which are rooted in a basic american sense of fairness and responsibility have been supported across generations by both political parties in both democratic and republican administrations. thank you and i will turn the floor to my colleague, kathleen
sebelius. >> thank you secretary geithner. today's trustee report confirms that medicare is in a much longer position than it was a few years ago thanks to the affordable care act. without the health care law ,-com,-com ma hospital insurance trust fund would be exhausted in 2016, just four years from now. but as a result of the law, we have added another eight years to his life putting medicare on much more solid ground. the law does this through a range of reforms, from cracking down on fraud to helping providers prevent costly medical errors, to reducing excess payments to medicare advantage plans. as the report our department released today shows, this first wave of reforms will save medicare more than $200 billion by 2016 while also lowering costs for americans with
traditional medicare by nearly $60 billion. that is real money in people's pockets. in addition, the report describes reforms in a law that could lead to even bigger savings down the road. by addressing the misaligned incentives that are the major driver of rising medicare costs. we know that many leading health systems have reduced costs by improving care. for example by managing care more effectively for patients with chronic conditions to keep them healthier and out of the hospital. but in the past, the medicare payment structure has made it difficult for providers to provide that kind of care. the health care law begins to break down those barriers with new reforms that free doctors and nurses to deliver higher-quality, more efficient care. though these incentives are just in the beginning phases, we are confident they will improve care and save money and that means it's very possible that in the long run, the health care law will do even more to stabilize
medicare's finances than their report today indicates. still, as secretary geithner said, more work remains to be done. today's report shows that medicare per and raleigh spending will continue to grow at a slower pace than the private insurance industry. again thanks in part to the health care law. but it also shows that overall medicare costs will continue to grow because of our aging population. and that is why secretary geithner noted, the president has put forward a budget that builds and expands on the reforms in the affordable care act by doing even more to cut waste and fraud, reduce unnecessary payments and health providers deliver more efficient care. unlike some of the other plants that plans that have been put forward, this is is an approach that will put medicare on a stable trajectory without eliminating -- eliminating the guaranteed or shifting
tremendous costs on to seniors. it is an approach that make sure a strong medicare is there for our children and our grandchildren. today's report shows that this approach can work and i would also make clear how important is that we continue to implement reforms in the health care law and the president's budget to secure the promise of medicare for generations to calm. >> good afternoon everyone and thanks for joining us today. today we have heard about the long-term financial future of social security and medicare. these programs serve as a critical lifeline for millions of americans, especially for those experiencing tough economic times. today close to 54 million americans deceived social security benefits. that includes 38 million retirees, 10 million americans with disabilities and 6 million survivors of -- social security
also serves as a critical role in combating poverty in this country are going fact it's estimated that if social security payments were excluded from income the number of older people in poverty would increase by almost 14 million individuals however, challenges remain for social security and medicare and thus the retirement security of many americans who depend on the benefits they provide. secretaries geithner and sebelius have low stress the importance of legislative action to address these challenges are going now that cause for both programs are continuing to increase due to the continued retirement by the baby boom generation and lower birthrates for younger generations. people are also living longer and the cost of health care per beneficiary is continue to rise especially in private health insurance but also for our public programs. reducing the long-term cost of medicare will depend largely on provisions of the affordable care act which will take effect in the coming years. that is one big reason why ensuring the successful
implementation of this historic health care law is so important. that there were other important steps that strengthen the solvency of the social security and medicare trust funds. reticle to this effort is a continued and sustained economic recovery are going the past 25 months the economy has generated 4 million jobs. layoffs have decreased to 2006 levels and the unemployment rate has decreased from a peak of 10% at the height of the recession, to a .2% today. we have made steady progress but we are not out of the woods yet. we have got a lot more work to do to make every person in every community thrive again. putting more people back to work now is crucial to the health of the social security and medicare trust fund. when more people are working, our payroll tax base grows and so do the trust funds as more people are able to contribute to them. so we are taking concrete steps to put people back on the job in a quicker more effectively. the recent extension of the
employment insurance and the importance reforms that come along with it are critical to this effort. and providing better services and more flexibility, returning the unemployment system into a -- system making it easier and quicker for people to get back to work. additionally we are funding job training initiatives focused on making sure that the skilled workers gain in the classroom. that is what employers are looking for in the office or factory. edition over the past two years we have worked strategically to incentivize businesses to put more people back to work. we also continue to support policies that encourage disabled and older workers to stay on the job. this effort helps to address the solvency of the trust fund. many disabled workers can and do want to work so we have got to help them do just that as quick as we can. we put forth a number of initiatives to speed up medical recovery to get folks off disability insurance and back on the job. currently we are collaborating with social security administration to build on this
important work. over the last two years the department of labor has helped 16 states provide disability insurance claimants with targeted job coaching and training to help them get back to work. last year alone the number of one-stop career centers engaging with participants of the ticket to work program increased by 34%. together we are hoping those that can get back to work do so and we are making sure that a key part of their benefits so that they can get the help they need to transition back to her. social security and medicare provide a safety net for millions of americans, retired workers and then a fisheries many of whom are low income and depend on these programs for their very survival. we need to address the immediate and long-term imbalances between income and cost of the program. the earlier these reforms can be made them more options and the more time we have to better prepared for those affected and to ease the burdens on our most vulnerable communities. thank you.
>> i would like to begin by commending the public trustees for their important contributions to this year's report. this report is the first one since 2007 where we have the benefit of the two confirmed public trustees for the full year of painstaking work. we worked together in a bipartisan fashion. they should be a model for all of us in washington. having them on board has made an enormous difference in areas ranging from technics of economic analysis and plain language. speaking a bipartisan can tenure out what he it is time for congress to take on the task of retooling social security for the long-haul. this year's three-year movement on the exhaustion date for the oasdi trust fund makes legislative action more critical than ever. congress must begin the process of deciding what level the benefits and taxation best serve
the interest of younger americans who are increasingly uncertain as to whether they can count on social security. it is also now vital for congress to consider reallocating assets between the trust fund so that disabled americans do not have to fear reductions in benefits in 2016. finally, as in the past, i want to urge you in the media not to complicate congress's responsibilities. please, please remember that exhaustion is an actuarial term of art and it does not mean that there will be no money left to pay any benefits. after 2033, even if congress does nothing, there will still be sufficient assets to pay about 75% of the current level of benefits. it's not acceptable but it is the fact that there will be substantial assets there. i also want you to note that this year's change of the disability insurance trust fund as with last years, is due
almost entirely to demographics and the recession. in the past year there have been reports to the contrary and i urge you not to repeat that reporting. we need the debate to begin and they needed to be civil and fact-based. clear and accurate reporting on the complexity of the system is essential to that debate. and to wrap up, this is the trustees report i have signed, more than any other commissioner other than arturo meyer and i would be remiss if i concluded my remarks without telling you what a tremendous privilege it has been to serve as a trustee. thank you. >> the social security and medicare programs remain among the more remarkable legislative achievements in american history. these two programs have between them provided critical insurance protections for hundreds of millions of americans.
they have done it as an exceptionally low administrative costs and they have done it with financing methods that while they certainly have their critics, have been generally accepted by most of the american public as equitable historically. it's important to remember these achievements as we review this year's financial projections. in different respects, both social security and medicare finances to take a further turn for the worse this year and of course as with nearly every year the mere passage of time for the constraints are options for bringing these are grams to long-term solvency. we need to remember, as we review our options, that the continued strength of these programs depends not only upon their finances being restored to balance that this is done in such a way that the public continues to believe is reasonably fair and as time continues to pass and this program finances continued to become more strained this becomes more difficult to achieve. before getting to the specific numbers of social security, first i'd like to note some
general differences between social security projections and medicare projections. social security does not tend to have large -- from year-to-year and this is because the demographics that guide its finances have been relatively vulnerable for some time. medicare on the other hand faces greater projections of certainty because factors like health care and cost inflation are inherently much more difficult to protect. italic barbour reischauer will talk about the medicare site where we have had some offsetting, projection changes in the short-term, some positive and some negative and was social security side by contrast unfortunately this year most of the variables wind lined up on the negative side are going to result on the social security side, both the short-term and the long-term outlook are we worsened somewhat. so securities actuarial imbalance that was at 2.67% of attackable payroll. again that is a term but basically that is the program's tax base and worker wages.
that is a 0.44 worsening relative to last year and that may not seem like a big difference but this is now the largest actuarial deficit that we have seen in social security since the 1983 reforms and this is the the second largest single year deterioration that we have seen all the trustees reports since the last major reforms. now the projected completion date of the combined trust funds is now anticipated to be 2033. that it's been moved up from 2036 so we have lost some ground not only because of the passage of time and legislated in action but also because program finances are somewhat weaker than we had previously projected. and that the 2033 date is the earliest projected by the trustees are more than a decade of trustees reports and there were a few trustees reports in the mid-1990s passat trust fund depletion happening earlier but we have to remember now it's much later in the game and as a
result never since the 1983 reforms have become as close to the point of trust fund depletion as we are right now. now 21 years off may sound like a long way but given the magnitude of social security's financing shortfall it's actually not. our window for dealing with it without substantially disruptive consequences is closing fairly rapidly. in 2033 it has been said that we would have enough revenue coming in to pay 75% of scheduled benefits are the payroll tax would have to be raised from 12.4% to 16.7%. now that 25% benefit reduction, one must bear in mind it seems we would be willing to cut advocates etiquette for people already on the rolls including many people already receiving benefits today in 2012 and when you factor into account the sheer desire on the part of many policymakers to shield people already receiving benefits from changes, to shield low-income recipients from benefit reductions it's clear we don't have a great deal of time left to resolve the balance in a way
that people on both sides of the aisle will find acceptable. our greatest immediate concern we have the effect of the disability insurance trust fund now projected to be exhausted in 2016. that is the earliest of the trust funds report on. one option for dealing with this obviously is to reallocate the tax rate between the disability and retirement fund for social security. we have to remember of course that would shore up disability only at the expense of the other social security trust fund. we want to avoid weakening the other side of social security. we have to make tougher choices. we would have to otherwise decrease disability benefits are increased disability taxes considerably and fairly soon. we have defined roughly $30 million in savings annually within the disability program starting with five years to prevent insolvency. why did this year's report show a decline in social security finances? primarily this is because its economic data. way larger than expected social security cola this year, 3.6%.
woodworker attackable learning's 1.6% lower in 2011 that we projected last year and of course this affects our projections for 2012, 2013 and beyond and we have also modified our expectations for long-term changes to worker hours to benefit historical data and aging population. beyond this we have the usual grab bag of changes on the methodological side. we have the usual effect of simply the passage of time and we have also incorporated some updated birthrate data and unfortunately this year all of the smaller factors generally lined up on the negative side of the line. that is unusual for social security reports but it's an important reality this year. via any objective measure the problems in social security are growing somewhat more serious. it's insolvency date is grown closer. is actuarial imbalance is larger and even accounting for all the social security trust fund income including interest and other recently enacted transfers or revenues from the general fund, its trust fund ratio is now lower than the peak level of
hitting 2000 projected to further decline. the shortfall ahead are much larger nothing can be readily corrected at the last minute as we done in 1983. bipartisan action needs to be responsible come decisive, decisive and prompt. thank you. >> good afternoon. being the last of the six trustees to speak, i will be very brief. the primary responsibility of the public trustees is to assure the american public that the financial and actuarial analyses contained an annual trustees reports are as objective as possible, that they use the best available data and information and they employ the most appropriate methodologies. i think i can speak for chuck as well as myself, that we can provide that assurance with confidence to the american public. once again, we have participated
in an open, robust and vibrant discussion on the numerous issues that must be resolved when these two reports are put together. once again we have been impressed by the expertise and commitment to objectivity and the actuaries and their staff, the departmental staff that support the trustees and the steps of the social security administration. this year we also benefited from deliberations and recommendations to the two technical panels, the medicare technical panel from the department of health and human services and the social security technical panel convened by the social security board. we have incorporated some, but not all of the recommendations in these trustees reports. we intend to can do need to draw on these panels and sites as we develop future reports. let me make a few observations now that relate to the content of these reports. first, i want to add my voice to the course that is emphasized
that under current law, both of these vitally important programs are on unsustainable path. the sooner the policymakers address these challenges, the less disruptive the unavoidable adjustments will be, both for individuals and for the economy, the greater the likelihood that the solutions will be balanced and equitable. while the bottom-line message of 2012 reports differ little from those of previous reports, it is important to realize that the projections contained in these reports as others have emphasized include a lot of uncertainty. this is particularly true with respect to the medicare report in which the current law projections that are the basis of this report, assume that payments under the physician fee schedule will be cut by 30.9% in the start of 2013, to comply with the sustainable growth rate mechanism. it's almost certain that if
lawmakers override this reduction, and medicare part d expenditures will therefore be higher conceivably as much as 12% higher than is reported in these reports for 2013. over the long run, the challenge facing medicare will depend critically on our ability to achieve these discipline contained in the affordable care act which in turn roe requires significant transformation of existing payment and delivery systems, the ability of providers to improve their productivity and the willingness of employers, unions and other payers private policies to join forces with medicare to demand change. even with unified and concerted effort further legislative changes above and beyond the affordable care act will be required to put medicare on a sustainable path. let me close by saying as someone who spent an hour yesterday applying for medicare because i step down after 12
that there's a shadow hanging over that in such an part report? >> i think this has been traditionally were i would say reluctance among the congress often to adopt payment reforms it's a great example of that. it was begun with the floor intentionally above medicare fee-for-service as a way to encourage competition for the marketplace when they were still paying the passage of the affordable care act 114% of the fee-for-service in spite of the fact people kept saying that needs to be lowered. the affordable care act has done that and the good news is that
in the last two years medicare a vintage plans are now being paid at a rate 107%, not 114% higher. we are on track to get to parity with fee-for-service, but we are assuming that the payment reductions included in the affordable care act will be carried out if congress chooses to interrupt those and to add additional funding, then we have to make different assumptions. but i think the skepticism is because often congress has intervened at times there have been challenges about lowering cost and could cost at a higher rate went with net pack and others advisable what. its listing over $8 million in taxpayer money. any questions whether hhs has
the legal authority to even as the bush approach and how do you respond. the good news is medicare advantage, in spite of all the obligations thye would destroy the program and is stronger than ever before we have more companies participated in the plan for the first time ever consumers are getting information about quality ratings and we've had more beneficiaries migrating to the four-star programs than ever before. it's due to expire in 2014. we are on track to reduce the overpayment of medicare advantage, as i said with the demonstration money included, we dropped from 114% of fee-for-service to now 107% of the fee-for-service comes a cut in half the overpayment to medicare advantage and i think it is a basic win-win situation.
beneficiaries are already paying lower rates since you have lower rates, more plans, consumer information for the first time of the quality programs, and we are on track to reduce the overpayments which are substantially to save money in the long haul. >> i'm happy to have him answer. >> plan to let the demo run out and not redo it. >> that is our plan. it's designed as the demonstration project. the goal is not only to give consumers information will also to put medicare advantage plans on notice that we are measuring quality for the first time as opposed to just having a proletariat plans. we think this is a really important step. we are pleased to see more beneficiaries are migrating to
the higher rated plans and we think the end of 2014 it will accomplish the goal was which is to give some financial incentives to those plans that are improved in quality results. as you know one of the most discouraging factors around medicare advantage only were those plans being paid 14% more than fee-for-service and 75% of the beneficiaries are picking up the additional cost because the cost was spread, but there was no increase health outcomes as a result of the overpayment. so, we think this demonstration was important to again inform consumers. we intend to keep a quality system in place, not the additional incentives. but again, medicare advantage rates are down substantially over where they were when the president two years over signed the affordable care act.
one of the things i always remember because my office overlooked the building in the plaza was there was a day care center in the plaza and some of the children were killed and others injured but during the recess period they would always come and play out here in the plaza and you would hear their voices, so that left a lasting impression when they were silenced. my son a dear friend of his high school working in the social security office her father was a good friend of mine and when i got home i actually that morning had three different messages, first of all wanting to know what he could find out about his daughter and secondly the third
messages when he was tried. the u.s. general overseeing operations in southwest afghanistan says she has no cooperation from the pakistani army in securing its border with afghanistan. major general who spoke at the atlantic council one washington, d.c.. we kept on duty to pick up with the question answer portion of the remarks. this is 45 minutes. >> i will last one question and then look to the audience to continue the discussion. you get the good sense of sort of the threat specifically.
but can you talk more broadly about taliban? you know, where are they now in your estimation? what is the chance of them popping back at? - depends on the trajectory of the afghan security forces but given the sense of where they are politically and militarily in your view. >> i think the taliban there's always going to be i think a hard-core element that is going to want to install sharia law. hyoscine some of those folks and i've had the opportunity to speak to some. it's a hard core reticle believe that this is the way it needs to operate. what produced that? i'm not exactly sure, but i think they will continue to exist. currently they are operating on the of the side of the border. they are operating in a safe
haven in taliban for as long as i've been there and we have tried in numerous ways to engage the pakistani army on the border and to walk with them in my case and pakistan at least i now make it so easy for them to move across border but it's gone on so that's where the taliban should operate. the reconciliation for them general allen has been encouraging the commanders is focused on that level and lower level taliban triet really the mant level has been our objective. those mentioned earlier if you look at the mid-level taliban, they are residents of kandahar. they come from those districts and in many cases the term of a ban because the leadership in
the local level was abusive and the authoritarian government, and what we are seeing is the one to come back into the four and it's all of the results of making progress. so, there will be taliban will exist. there will always be people willing to kill themselves to put a suicide best on or drive a suicide vehicle, and the day abuse that there will always be people that conduct that kind of business and so we need to make sure that we maintain our guard. i will end it there, but --
>> any questions, from the audience? >> my name is gretchen. if you could describe the nature of the enemy because when my communicate with folks in a lot of areas they seem to be groups that they are fighting seem to be as much local criminal organizations, drug-trafficking networks and another category described as young men being stupid, but rather they are connected to the town of and other than paying tax or protection money is harder for me any way. >> that's a very good question. and i will say that the nature of the enemy and helmand province varies depending upon where you are. if you are in the south, with
that basically explain and use the analogy to the taliban are completely on the back. they are not operating in the southern places etc. in central helmand which really is the response to devotee of task force helmand they are on their knees and they are still getting support funding and i can talk in more detail but they are still getting funding for some of the criminal patrons networks that are fueling helmand so the places which today is the most kinetic district in afghanistan it's changed dramatically over the past year due to some of the things we've seen this year but there is still a taliban insurgent activity there. but then in the upper helmand
valley, in places like that the taliban are on the heels because it was the last piece of real-estate wheat cleared so they were on the heels, but behind them as the transit area for drugs for poppy grove debts owned by our friend i just mentioned earlier. they still own that territory, and at this stage, we are no longer in the business. it's now the afghans providing the security. so, from south to north it gets increased taliban involvement, taliban founding etc, but you are absolutely right. there are a lot of local
nationals that get themselves into trouble and get an opportunity to make a few bucks by planting and ausley eda. they are not tell them, they are just people that quite honestly afforded them another opportunity for employment they wouldn't be taking the job because if you look to the elders and the responsible people and helmand province they are not supporting that and again it goes back to this i think we are the home team we have to support the local nationals. >> yes, in the middle. >> you said you tried to engage in the pakistani army on the other side. what success have you had getting them to interdict fighters and materials and other things like that? >> unfortunately from my perspective as the commander in the regional command southwest
of yet had no support. we have tried to conduct operations and discussions of conferences and there always seems to be something that interferes in that. it's an area that i know my boss at the time general allan and my commander have been working very hard at but it's difficult because as you know, helmand province and its borders and the pakistan border is a place i know for a fact drugs are moving out troop pakistan and coming in on a regular basis, and it's a long way from the helmand river valley. as to provide forces down here
to interdict and stop that, it detracts and take away from efforts to be working in the upper river valley. if i had the pakistani army support to conduct the patrol along the border and limit the amount of movement across it would help. it's been my focus but i haven't been able to get that kind of support. islamic another example of how critical it is to this effort. second row. >> general, a couple questions. one, you mentioned it's important to sightline the sort of factors that you were referring to who is a senator now. how do you think is the most effective way to do that, and how difficult to do you think it will be for the ansf and the
remaining coalition forces and helmand to maintain the progress that you've been describing after september when there will be a significant number of marines that would have been withdrawn at that point? >> i will say that the first question is an individual that has large financial investment in helmand province. a lot of it comes through the drug trade. he's got his hands all over it, and the only way of changing his impact, there's two ways. one is we have to do a better job of working the government of afghanistan narcotics addiction
units which are working very closely with the dea. the dea is doing a great job in teaching the narcotics interdiction unit and the narcotics lead in the government afghanistan and things are challenging but things like collecting evidence and doing criminal investigations because it's got to move from the military operations to the legitimate criminal investigations in using the rule of law to uphold these people accountable. we are making progress, but its nascent. it's only in the past year the narcotics interdiction unit in the government afghanistan have been effected in collecting evidence and make a difference. but that has curtailed his activity and his cronies and curtailed the activity so that's a good thing that i think's it's
going to pay dividends later on. the other thing that is vitally important is that the central government has to, particularly people like muhammed who have influence over the government officials who are now in the process of appointing leaders in the districts to say okay i'm going to pull this governor out because he's not doing what i'm asking them to do and all of a sudden somebody comes in and you find out his last name and it's because they influence the decision process. the constitution there was drafted for afghanistan is if you read it it's very similar to
what the united states looks at passing control to the states in the less powerful central government. but what we are seeing right now in afghanistan is the constitution hasn't been fully enacted. the district and local levels where there are elections that show progress particularly we have a good success. the government still doesn't trust. they want to appoint their own people. i have had three regional chiefs of police and helmand province so you build a relationship with one and he's pulled out because he's not doing what he is being told to do so someone else comes in their. what we really need to do as stop the central government meddling in the local politics. the only way you are going to make a difference in afghanistan
is to allow the local districts and provinces to control their own faith. but there is and the degree of faith yet. it's going to come but that's hard to limit the impact on the senior level influence, negative influence on afghanistan and helmand province. the second part of the question is more important and i'm certainly something that and the provincial leaking into acting that's how do we support the afghan security forces in maintaining stability and maintaining control in the province. first of all you'd be amazed at
the wonderful strong relationships that everybody from pfc house built with the afghan security forces. you would have thought i was leaving my family. it just was a moving experience, so after a year of sharing and hardships, explosions, casualties, the positive elections, all the good things we have built a pretty strong bond and that needs to continue. obviously there are threats to that and as you know we have had to deal was on the inside threats that exist in afghanistan and if he would
remain to the media that plays up greater than it really is because for every inside threat issues i can tell you that there's 100 events that are created a strong bond, but that's the key is keeping that bond with the afghan national security forces and that trust and faith and they will stand up. >> thanks for the answer to that question. yes, in the back. >> thank you so much. my name is christina from the washington times. u.s. troops are expected to consolidate in the south and focus more on the east. as far as you know what consolidation with from a can you talk about more the transition from the combat mission to the advisory mention what look like and what do you expect for the fighting season and how do you expect we will be built to hold gains we've made in the south? >> very good questions.
i worked harder for the past year to convince my leaders to the insurgents in the south is the greatest threat to the government of afghanistan and efficient strengthen, that will provide a great threat or the greatest threat to the afghan government. i say that because currently the south is the main effort for the resources etc., and we need to maintain the pressure that i am speaking of in this out. as we are drawn down on forces, we are also drawing up on afghan national security forces
capabilities, capacity come getting the numbers up, and most importantly, they will. those elements of the national forces are on the rise. what we don't want to do is change that effort until after this season. i don't like the qtr using fighting season because it by commanders don't say fighting season. but in a certain way it is a psychosis we use in terms of the fighting season as we are giving of the initiatives to the insurgencies so we look at it as a cycle.
we've had some attacks, every week. the afghan national security forces will stand up pretty easily. last season was harder season. may 17th was a big published a they were going to come out and was going to be big. i really do believe that the insurgents cannot introduce any type of complex attack. the most complexity that you're going to see it's not going to happen down and helmand province because they don't have that capability, they don't have the leadership, they don't have the capability to orchestrate that type of attack and they don't have the capacity that the number of insurgents are not the same as they were two years ago. so i believe we will see pretty
soon because it's about to begin and will take another for 30 days, but i do believe that the afghan national security forces gathering of the human level that it's a very powerful intelligence, and they will know ahead of time. then you combine that with the support of the local nationals it's going to be jury hard for them to swim among the local nationals because they are not getting the support. so i believe that -- we will see if it's correct what will happen going back to the first question is as the main effort does shift because the haqqani network has gotten a lot of attention and that it operates to maintain a self, doesn't have that grand
design. as the insurgency goes if he can keep the lid on the insurgency it isn't going to be as all-powerful as some people talk it up to be the guest they do operate with other places, and that's where they want to shift the main effort, but this season we will see and we will find we've been able to hold the line and then maybe make that shift next year. >> thanks, general. in the back. >> sydney friedberg, defense. having talked to a lot of the young officers back from both wars and dressel leaders that have served with you.
they've been doing all of this pulling but we are drawing down the national securities is no more prolonged shift, give it to asia, partnership building. the core itself is trying to get back to its maritime and expeditionary routes. and of course everything is drawing down and putting the number of personnel to a young marine lt. or captain or sergeant today. what do you say about why it is their experience in the last decade relevant. how are they going to have to adapt and why should they stay in when everything is changing so radically. >> that's good. i tried to coax kind of discussions recently that have returned with a lot of our young leaders and marines. and i will say that it's a very complex.
some people tend to think that it's all about okay the job is done. what we are doing is critical to the transition. we are not necessarily changing the mission in afghanistan, but we are changing, we are walking into the final phase of the counter insurgency which is to advise and train and said of the indigenous security forces up for success. the mission isn't changing, and we have trained our guys to understand the counter insurgency you can't win a counterinsurgency with coalition forces. they know that the mission is to support and back up the afghan security forces. so we are following through on that claim mission all the way
through the end, and i think although 2014 looms out there has been the end of the counterinsurgency, the final phase is to support phase that we haven't really put a descriptor on exactly what is going to be left. but there will be things left after 2014 that will continue to support the afghan security forces. you're absolutely right in fact that for the past ten years we have concentrated on, you know, the fight in afghanistan and iraq and it's been a counterinsurgency and it's been required as different skills of our marines, particularly a think we have concentrated on the operations on the ground in iraq and afghanistan, and we haven't conducted as much
invidious operations as you alluded to in the areas that we might be returning. although i would say that one of the more successful operations was in 2001 where we did go to afghanistan and we moved personnel and equipment over 400 miles to afghanistan but there will be some shifts and they basically have a ph.d. in the counterinsurgency. they understand it and they are good at it and they like it they are effective but as we will lose some of them. what we have learned is that in the counter insurgency there are some basic principles that across apply across the board,
and we realize those fundamentals we can never lose and certainly as a marine being the expeditionary force and being able to operate and helmand and the province without a big huge footprint sometimes requires a little bit of discipline to say okay we are not getting put in but mr. coffey die because we don't really need it. as a matter of fact let's close this down and live over there with the afghans. we are giving more and more of that getting to the expeditionary will footprint mode. >> if i could ask a follow-up, we have the news of the usf can partnership agreement which i understand is a broad agreement over the weekend, which i am to understand will hopefully lead to a more specific agreement that is hammered out with the afghan government on the nature of the military partnership and
security relationship. here the atlantic council we're looking at the senate. it would be one of the primary agendas and we've had some headlines over the last couple of months of what looks like the ki coalition and l.i. contributors coming out literally. we've routt australia and others, so the question i have is from your point of view. what is the plan for this transition, but partners to you see potentially going forward if you were allowed to be that specific what is the key strategy to be that specific until the transition in 2014 and then afterwards because that is the part that's missing. we've had a lot of time announcements but i think more importantly what is the strategy
guiding the footprint activity going forward so this will have to be long term per persian places like bosnia still many years after the fact so we should certainly begin to set the expectations of the american people and of the populations and the allied coalition nations as well. if you have any thoughts on those it would be great to hear. >> i think someone said it is a coalition warfare is very difficult. it's even more difficult without coalition forces and so the reality is that we need to all learn and be better that conducting the coalition operations. for me it was a tremendous learning experience as the commander of the coalition forces because as many of you know and i tried to put on the film we had the georgians, the jordanians, it was a huge collision course, and when you
find finished delete kimmage with a contribute best and you have integrated it makes a difference. so the challenge for general allan, and he's reminded the regional commanders that there isn't anything more important keeping the coalition together during the entire operation until the end. and it hurts when a country like france for example says out east after an inside offense when several soldiers were killed okay, we are out of here because that registers for the insurgency. it's very powerful when a coalition partner like for example the u.k. steps up and says we are here to the end
command by the way we are not reducing the forces. the u.k. is only going to be reduced by about 500 over the next year which is very small. so, that's helpful. that serves as a great statement in helmand province for us. i think that the strategic partnership that you are referring to in the beginning between afghanistan and the coalition has had some challenges. the two big ones are obviously night raids and detention operations, and i think that the president of afghanistan has been working very hard to cut out the night raids. what we have done in order to satisfy that desire is in effect we've taken the u.s. forces out
of the actual conduct and put them in an adviser role so in helmand province we were conducting them almost every night and we still are. we are doing them with commandos, with the narcotics and addiction unit guys that were mentioned earlier, and in fact, we just had a parade of several months ago done by the am i you who was the finest and trained by a couple of the agents. that's how we are doing them. we are not conducting them anymore. we are just in the supervisory role. as far as the operations that's the one that's been the the bigger challenge, and the problem is that we have got insurgents operations that do not fall under the criminal
investigative mind, so it's difficult for us to allow those insurgence to just turn them over to the afghan government because one of the areas that still requires continued attention is the rule to all and the whole system from the criminal investigation all the way to prosecution and the tension. that's working, it's in progress but it's not complete so until that's not established its interest to turn over the operations completely but we are working closely in this strategic partnership impacted by some of those sensitive issues. >> yes, in the front. >> thanks for the great introduction. my question is from the southern
pastor and community. the second one is usually the taliban have a shadow government. do they have a shadow government and with the have and your operations not from the military but from the social level. and others they used to do in those. thanks. >> good, good questions. unfortunately in the afghan national army the percentage of the pashtuns that are serving for example in the 215 corps which is the core responsible for the southwest region is probably the last and 15%. the passions, particularly the
pashtuns that come out helmand province, they don't look to the army for unemployment. we have been trying hard to bring more into the army. the corps commander, two of the brigade commanders are pashtun which is very good coming into the arts, helmand. the corps commander those he's not a pashtun. it would be better if there were more but what we're focusing our attention on as the afghan uniformed police because we realize the center of gravity if we are going to the indifference and keep the support of the
local nationals the police that are going to control populations, support the populations of the homeland river valley. we lead the populated areas and move out to the further regions of the province and because the borders and the police folks becomes an tabulated center. he's taken the responsibility for their homes. it's very interesting because the average pension doesn't want to leave home. for us as americans it's hard to realize that some of these guys if there is a threat that they might not be double to stay and they might move them to the south well, i don't want to
leave. we have to understand that and respect that but that is the challenge, they don't like leaving home, home is home. but i think that is what we are trying to do is make sure that the pashtun are in the police and the afghan army moved out of the populated centers. we are not at that point yet where the police are conducting, as i mentioned earlier, criminal investigations collecting evidence, doing the paperwork. it's still a work in progress, and the police are still w and the police are still working through the history of corruption to the local people are still hesitant so the army still plays a strong role. they ought to be respected. we are working through that stage of moving the army out and having the police to more available enforcement rather than combat operations.
that's where the local home propulsions focus their efforts. >> we have a question and the back. >> good morning, general. i worked as a subject expert in quantico virginia. it's a very good presentation and free motivational. we saw some good news come from home, so what -- hell do we convince the american public, how do we send these to the american media so that we can convince them to stay committed to more patients in the fight against terror? nooney. >> that's one of the reasons i'm on this tour for the next ten days is to get around and try to get the word out to a variety of
different people. i also tell the marines as the folks that just left afghanistan i had conversations and the commanders of conversations we try to explain to them with the have accomplished because it's difficult sometimes for them to put the whole picture together so as a leader, it's their job to sort of put that picture together. you did a great job back here but what's the bigger picture. so showing them how -- i was disappointed with an article was written called rights to know where and i wanted to write an article that i was afghanistan. those roads are critically important. as many experts have told you the insurgency began with the
road's end, and being able to give people jobs and build the fallujah change and agricultural -- that is what it was all about. the individual marines, thousands and thousands of soldiers and marines and sailors when they served in afghanistan and they're told to serve the picture they are the best on what they accomplished in afghanistan. not to mention the fact that obviously statistics and kinetic reductions, i can give you all of those and its dramatic. it's impressive when you look at what was going on and the news media called it a festering sore of afghanistan. he saw pictures. it's a bustling area. i have congressman, senators, anybody, about them right down to the market square.
so the stories need to come back but i also understand we are sensitive to the fact that they've got to maintain the highest levels of standards in afghanistan because the impact of the negative press, the impact of a marine corps soldiers being shot by an afghan soldier or police officer has a powerful impact and there could be a hundred great stories so again i think it is a matter of us one, making sure we maintain and maintain the highest standards as we are operating in afghanistan, and when we come back that we are in from the net to be able to explain to people
we did make great progress and i think that will probably work. here's the bottom line for me. there's been a lot of sacrifices made in afghanistan and iraq. and helmand province for example of the casualties for the u.s. forces has dropped dramatically that the casualties on the afghan side increased dramatically. it shows the fact that yes the afghans are in the lead in many of the district and they are responsible for akaka security but the sector freezes are important and we owe it to both the afghan and coalitions and we drove it to them to make sure we stay the course because we are making great progress. it's not perfect the try to bring upon some of the pickups but it's on track and it's
moving, so hopefully between the discussions the we have and others we will get some supporters to stay the course. >> time for one more question and then this gentleman in the front row. >> nooney, roger kirk at the united council. my question is what kind of training and support to expect will be needed after 2014? and what are the prospects the you see of getting their? >> there are some areas that the afghans will not be able to build capability or capacity over the next few years and so they get our support. as i mentioned earlier the afghans in the intelligence rahm nobody's better than they are so that is a powerful resource for them.
but they don't have the rest of the intelligence capabilities. they don't have the reconnaissance that we have which by the we have grown exponentially in the battlefield and i am a very happy commander with what we are getting out there. they want to maintain or have access, so i think we are going to have to provide that for awhile past 2014. there is no medical support capability anywhere in the world better than we have and know where on the battlefield was a casualty without support for less than an hour. we could get a guy stabilized and to the hospital and just amazing support. we have been providing that support for the afghans army and
police, and quit honestly for many of the local nationals. a texas something the afghans know they are going to have to provide at least some level of care. they know it won't be like what we have but that's going to take time suite of to stay there to help provide medical care. we are doing great work. not only is the advice and training and tactics and security operations but every member of my staff was advising someone to read my surgeon was working with their doctors so that's when to have to continue. i think fire support is an area that is we do have to be maintained through 2014. they don't really have the
capability to rounds on the target and be absolutely precise it makes your eyes water to see how precise the systems are, and the have canceled it could exacerbate the whole problem again so that has to stick around for awhile. that is a little more complicated because as we lose the battle to we have to find we to ensure that when the afghans call for tighter or need fire support that we have a way of seeing it. so one of the things we are developing in the southwest is full motion video so that as we leave places we are maintaining systems, have balloons and various kinds of devices the we've integrated that would allow us to provide
instantaneous or near instant support for the afghans when they call for fire suppose i think are three areas. the one area that is most delicate is we've been working the police and as i mentioned earlier there the center of gravity. the are the ones that are going to win this thing for the duration. we doubled in the criminal investigations and evidence collections and we have to stop dillinger and get the experts in there and bring into law enforcement experts. very similar to what we did in bosnia when we brought in the police forces from all over political rather to force that generation on nado i would be looking to build up that keep above the for the long haul. then last, we estimate
improvements in the integration special operations forces, the conventional forces to the point where it's almost seamless. as the conventional forces need special operations forces will continue to be required because again the special operations capabilities are going to take a little bit longer to nurture and mature and the forces will have to be there to back them up. >> thank you so much for coming here and telling a very and part of a story for the country and for our allies in afghanistan and other partners and think to most of all for this service to the country and to the effort.
>> good afternoon. welcome to the state department. monday april 23rd of the united states and the government of iraq held the inaugural meeting of the coordinating committee on energy and the department of energy. here to talk about that meeting and some of the issues raised we have the iraqi deputy prime minister for energy, dr. hussain as well as the coordinator for international energy affairs carless pascrell and the deputy department of energy so without further delay will let ambassador pascual take the mic. estimates of pleasure to see you and on behalf of the department of energy let me reduce you to the trend coordinator on energy. it's reflective of the relationship in the united states and iraq and what has evolved and how we have established mechanisms to be able to work on issues that are critical to both countries and energy is obviously one of those. it's fundamental to the economic
future. it's fundamental to the ability to generate power for its own people. it's fundamental to supply international markets. and in that context, it's in the direct interest of the united states. we have been working together on how to support iraq's defense efforts to increase the production and iraq through its effort has reached a level of about 3 million barrels a day of production. last year the average was about 2.7 million barrels a day and the year before there was about 2.4 million barrels a day reflective of the consistent increase over time. one of the biggest issues we discussed was how to sustain that progress. one of the issues the deputy prime minister focused particular attention on was the importance of turning the energy resources and to the benefits of the iraqi people, and that is electricity generation so we have reviewed how to continue to work together on increasing the electricity availability in iraq. our commitment to the trend
toward dating committee is reflecting, it's a reflection of the all of government approach that we have taken. the department of energy and state have been cheering get together, but we have included participants including the department of treasury, the department of commerce and some of our security agencies, looking at iraq's infrastructure and through this kind of ongoing mechanism our intent is to people to reinforce and the consistent and steady with the development of iraq's defense hydrocarbon resources, electricity resources for people, the environment for international companies to be able to invest and through that the united states would benefit as well. with that let me ask my colleague the secretary of energy who has played an absolute leadership role in the as troubled of the joint coordinating committee and leadership role within the government on energy issues. >> nooney, ambassador. this is a historic moment.
ambassador pascual note. there have been impressive gains in iraqi oil production in recent years and those gains are set to continue. we have been working hard also in the area of electricity. not only power generation but discussing such widespread issues and demand side management, energy efficiency and even the possibility of developing renewable energy resources in iraq. we have also, with great enthusiasm on both sides, talked about the importance of critical infrastructure protection. and our ill iraqi colleagues will have a chance to further discuss this as they make their way around the u.s. and talk to other experts in this area. in this connection i would like to note that at the next age of this cooperation, i am delighted to join deputy prime minister al shahristani and we will be visiting lawrence livermore national laboratory where we
will continue not only discussions about political infrastructures but also on some of the exciting new energy technologies that have so much promise for us all. as ambassador pascual said, none of this would be possible without tremendous cooperations from the other agencies and the leadership of the president, the vice president and the secretary of state who have been very clear with us on the importance that they attach to the burgeoning energy relationship between the united states and iraq. it's an area not only a great opportunity but in which we have a very clear convergence of interest and as we agreed and are very extensive discussions for the first part of today, we have a very clear sense on both sides mutually what work we have before us and i think we are all very enthusiastic to embrace that work for a-gram. and without i would like to not only thank our state department hosts and ambassador pascual has also been absolutely essential in this effort but also turn the floor over to our esteemed colleague and good friend, deputy prime minister al
shahristani. >> well, thank you for coming. iraq is called upon to cover for the world in the coming years, and this is expected that the world would need more energy, more hydrocarbon energy in the coming two to three decades, and iraq is uniquely positioned to be able to provide the world with its incremental energy needs. that is why we have invited the international oil companies to work with us, to develop the iraqi resources and the work has started based on the contracts that were signed two years ago and the projection -- production is already increasing so we have
developed infrastructures to enable us to handle more exports in the world market. as we speak, iraq is producing more than 3 million barrels a day of crude oil, but we expect them to come in six years to be able to increase that capacity of production, to more than 10 million barrels per day. this is to ensure the world market that there is sufficient crude for them. i would like to be considered as a dependable long-term supplier of world energy needs with its oil or gas, and there should not eat concerns of shortages in the supplied in the near future.
we are extremely happy with our core core operation, with the united states, not only to develop oil energy resources but in the general framework agreement in a number of areas. the united states has stood beside the iraqi people to help them be free from a dictatorship, build a democracy and rebuild the country and as we are moving into more strategic cooperation in several areas, we considered the energy sector as one of the most important sectors where the two countries can incorporate not only to develop and unleash exploration in the short term but also to look further forward to develop other sources of energy, alternative sources of
energy, in iraq. gas also is very important resource that many countries in the region and also in europe are looking to iraq to be able to provide them with some of their needs and iraq is very much interested to be a partner and a supplier of gas to our arab neighbors and also to european countries and the world at large. we are also discussing cooperation in protecting the iraqi energy infrastructure within onshore or offshore. this area of cooperation is also extremely important and we look forward to further cooperation in other areas. we also had the chance to meet
with some american companies, who are interested and looking to investment opportunities in iraq. we welcomed them and assure them that iraq, with its new policies and investments incentives, to national companies specifically american companies, not only in the energy are but in all other sectors, the financial sector and the talackova negation set your and housing and so on. there is a great potential over the coming years to work and iraq and we hope that this cooperation and the success that we have already had to develop our field would be incentive to
the other companies too, and join us in rebuilding iraq. thank you are crispy thank you. we have time for a few questions so if you could give your name and affiliation. >> andy quinn from reuters. i would like to address all three of you if i've made and ask about discussions of the situation with kyrgyzstan. exxon came up with the current state of players with that particular issue and specifically to the deputy prime minister, the exxon decision to free his contacts with the krg enough to get it back on the list of requalify companies for the next round? >> well exxon, being the largest oil company in the world, has been of among the first companies to sign the contract and we are developing one of the largest resources in iraq.
we have continued to work on the progress so far and is going according to plans. we are discussing with them the concerns that were raised in iraq when a contract was signed with the krg. you asked about the letters of commitment that they will freeze things as they are. the answer is yes and we are working with the krg to try to develop a framework to enable all companies to be able to work in iraq. >> i would just add as well, we maintained a continuing dialogue with all u.s. companies to doing business around the world and that hasn't been said on the particular matters before between a company and a
government. we don't get in the middle of that discussion. our role as the government is to work with the other government to encourage any issue that may be involving sovereigns to be resolved in a manner that is clear and transparent with any due process required for u.s. companies to be offered in the same spirit of due process that we call for companies all across the world. it was not specifically part of our jcc agenda. >> how will the lack of comprehensive oil agreement between the iraqi's affect cooperation between the u.s. and iraq? >> well, i think first of all one of the things to the iraqi side has been consistently working on is to try to find a mechanism to create a hydrocarbon consensus internally within the country so that everybody has clear rules of the road.
in the meantime, throughout most of the country, mechanisms have been put in place that have allowed companies to be able to make investments and to begin production. we have seen that in south with significant production increases that have already occurred. we have seen the potential for it and the northern parts of the country, including the kurdish region. there have been disputes and the iraqi government has been very clear about that. we have heard about it from both the krg and the iraqi side and a critical issue that we have been trying to work on from the perspective of the united states government is to play any kind of facilitating role, either from technical advice or any other matter, that can be helpful or useful to the parties but in the end it has to be fundamentally an issue that the iraqi parties decide. in the meantime, there is still tremendous potential and opportunity for the development of energy resources within iraq and we have seen that consistently over the past few years and even as we speak right
now, new investments have been put on line that are allowing for additional export production capacity, including a single mechanism and the second one which is just been opened up in which in fact is actually being loaded. we look forward to the continued increase in production and export out of iraq would have the same time we are encouraging all of the parties to do everything they can so that they have clear rules of the road going into the future on how they are able to further develop their hydrocarbon resources. >> i will just add to that, just add to that of course to have a hydrocarbon law, it is important in the iraqi government is pushing for the legislation of such a law. however, this is not the -- deter the oil companies to sign contracts and to start working in the country.
they have already succeeded to increase production and to increase exports and we are trying with oil companies who have signed contracts with us to increase iraq's production to significantly higher levels than what we are producing right now. until the new hydrocarbon laws legislated, the -- up and regulate the energy sector with oil sector are in force until they are changed by new legislation. >> dr. al shahristani, dave with argus media. i believe you said you had mentioned 10 million barrels a day within six years. now i also, if i understand right you have also talked about reducing your output capacity target for 2017, so that
10 million barrels a day the new target that you were contemplating? >> we have engaged the ioc to put production based on best dresser for practices to increase the recoverable oil from these fields. we are also engaging national consultants to advise us on what are the best production targets for iraq. and we are revising the recommendations that we are reviewing, the recommendations that have been made and by the end of of the year iraq will make a decision and announce it, as to what are the targets for the coming years. the figure of 10 million barrels
a day, that is a revised trigger. the contracts that have already been signed, the 12 contracts for the 12 oilfields and the three gas fields, the total -- of these contracts is about 12 alien dollars. >> just a couple of questions. any other questions? i have actually got one for the american participant on iraq but i wonder if you could talk a little bit about whether not energy prices make it more likely that strategic reserves might be tapped and do you feel that the iran sanctions alone make that, are enough to justify tapping the sar or would an additional market disruption be necessary. >> the president has been very clear about this. first of all in reference to prices, i think everyone who,
including me, who as been to the gas pump understands the pain all americans are feeling and is hurting families and it's hurting companies and we are very focused on the current high state of energy prices. they are too high. we have been watching closely, daily, the energy markets for disruptions. we have, as the president has made clear, kept every tool available to us in a state that can be used, and we are continually consulting with our international partners on this. we are looking at the whole cluster of factors that contribute to this, the production that has fallen off the market, the demands in the market, both pro and con and we are going to keep monitoring those issues. there will not the any single issue. the president has also made clear the regional tensions that are related to iran's noncompliance are unsettling
markets and in that respect, the best thing for iran to do with the to return to full compliance with their international obligations. >> questions in the back? >> dr. al shahristani a question about power generation, electricity. clearly demand is continuing to go up but i went wondering if you have some projections on when you anticipate supply will be able to meet demand or close to meeting demand? >> we have already signed contracts to build new power stations with a total capacity of 15 gigawatts. the construction is actually going on and some of these new power stations will be ready this year. some of them during the summer
and others before the end of the year. all the new power generation we expect to be connected to the grid before the end of next year, so by then, we should have enough generating capacity, the 15,000 in addition to about 9000 we have this year, should meet all the demands, including the anticipated increase for this year in the coming year, and our plan is to build additional plans with a total generating capacity of 50 gigawatts and in the coming four to five years. most of these units are based on gas turbines that are reading
constructed now. our second phase would be to the convert them into combined cycles that can add another 50% to this generating capacity so these are our projections for power generation. our projection for the increase in demand is about one gigawatt per year, so we should have sufficient spare capacity within these new power stations are completed. >> thank you. thanks to all of you for coming.
>> one day before the supreme court hears oral arguments on arizona's immigration laws, the senate judiciary committee holds a hearing looking into the constitutionality of state immigration laws. witnesses include the original author of the legislation, arizona state senator russell pierce. see it live starting at 10:00 a.m. eastern on c-span3. >> kissinger had the right
although he abused it, to come into the office, the oval office without having somebody announce him. kissinger could walk in when he wanted to. nixon told him because of the severity the foreign-policy issues to feel free to just come in and interrupt him. henry would look for trivial things and one-day nixon was really kind of ticked off that henry for a friday of things, and we were in the executive office. the far door swung open and i looked and it was henry. i caught a glance of him. nixon did not appear to look, but i know the two of us -- he said to me i think you are right chuck about that. i think it's time we use nuclear weapons because everything else has failed. kissinger stood in the doorway absolutely paralyzed. somebody's going to hear that on the tape and say oh my lord.
colson did ring up the direct side of things. it was pure humor. >> next-day discussion on the history of u.s. forensic errors and the governments response. from "washington journal," this is 40 minutes. >> host: aren't guest is an investigative reporter for "the washington post," the first time you run the program and we are here to talk about u.s. forensit errors. lotsg of copy in recent weeks ad here is just one of theent headlines. forensic science not as reliable as you may think. tell us more. y
>> guest: for m many years, it appears the nation's science establishment has had more and more skepticism about forensic science. in the journal of science there was an editorial several years ago saying that a forensic science was an oxymoron, which was crystallized in 2009, when a panel chartered by congress put out a 300 page report about this. they reached the conclusion that the greatest question for the courts is how much science is in forensic science. specifically they talked about disciplines. not like a laboratory disciplines that people think of, like chemistry or blood, but these subjective pattern-based analogies, fingerprints, marks made by firing pins of guns on
bullets, hair, fiber, bite marks, that these were sort of sciences developed by law enforcement, for law enforcement, but they did not have scientific studies on how common matches were. like something developed for medical applications, sometimes it was brought down to experts saying that based on their subjective analysis for a number of characteristics, there it is. host: let's take this to the legal area. one of the other for room -- headlines in the post was about how the defendants were unaware in these cases. host: -- guest: we dealt with hair and fiber analysis, spanning many years, since the 1950's, the cases we were looking at went back to the 1970's and 1980's. what we found was that in cases where clear errors were alleged,
or specific agents were identified for misconduct, the justice department and the fbi would review those cases as one agent. but they never told the majority of the men -- there were so concerned that they completed an independent scientific review, but word never reached half of those defendants, including a man in the district, who served 28 years for a rape and murder the dna showed he did not come -- did not commit. he was finally released in 2009 when he could have been released 12 years earlier. the second part is those identified by a task force. these are the 250 cases from 1996 through 2005. they were finding these errors,
even with mounting concerns that other agents were conducting their business in the lab and the court room the same way. issues with overstated testimony, testimony exaggerating the significance of a match. one in 10,000 chases between one in 10 million chances. the odds of someone having the same hair looking alike, they do not know, because they have never done the work on it. furthermore, they have implemented dna testing as a backup or confirming test. they knew enough to change their testing standards to a dna standard. they waited six more years to determine the error rate and found that it was 11% under the best of circumstances, meaning the agents under the best controlled circumstances, they found it surprising, because it was not with the random public,
it was the individuals where there was already evidence about probable cause. host: our phone number is on the bottom of the screen for our viewers. this is a two-part series recently on u.s. forensic errors. the investigative reporter is with us, spencer hsu, of "the washington post." their web site is where you can read this lengthy and interesting piece. as we get more detail from spencer hsu about what they have been reading about, we look forward to hearing from you. we talk about science, the courts. guest: so, to pick up where we left off, this was an example of
the man whose case was handled by the fbi. he was a different agent. it turned out that in 1978 there was a murder of a taxicab driver. he and a friend were identified as suspects. the case was shaky. basically, the childhood friend turned out to be a police informant. the same police had believed that there were murders of taxicab drivers being committed by the same caliber of weapon. other than that, they had a reported confession to the informant that did not jive with the facts of the case, but it was one block from where you shot. the agent said that this was a
match. in court he said it was highly unlikely that it was anyone else's. in other cases, examining it only one in 4000 times, for all the thing you it was one out of 10 million chances. the jury deliberated for two hours and ask one question. the judge said that this was the one that contained his hair. a couple of years ago, they learned of the other exoneration. they were able to get the hair tested. none of the 13 were his for the co-defendants.
one of the hairs was a dog's hair. meaning that the fbi could not determine dog from human error. the defense attorney said the the odds were zero. the errors that the agent made were fairly typical of those that scientists may. host: your reporting has been done. reaction out there? what kind of reaction has been presented? legislatively, what might be happening in the future? guest: each one of these agents,
there 10 in the fbi laboratory. doing the math, that were cut to tens of thousands of examinations per year -- that could work out to tens of thousands of insemination spree year. you're looking potentially at the universe of 100,000 examinations and tens of thousands of potential cases, hundreds, if not thousands of convictions that rely and this method. the district of columbia had decided that the results were strong enough to commission a review in the nation's capital, relying of hair testing for conviction. the fbi is assisting with the innocence project. question now as if to should be
a review in the district of columbia. folks who are calling for the review include the public defender's of criminal the set -- defense lawyers and people think -- seeking post-conviction dna testing. the justice department says that they are reviewing it. right now we have not heard an articulated reason as to why. there were these other cases with a third man. host: we want to get the viewers involved in a conversation. california, cathy, thank you for waiting. your question or comment? caller: i am aware of this
report and i certainly will go -- . i really appreciate your presenting this. i have been very interested in the innocence project. i am wondering if there is anything at all that the average person like myself can do to further the efforts of the innocence project, or this report on forensics. thank you. guest: i am sure that folks can get information on the innocence project online. i think that some of the areas that are up for debate that you might see -- you were from california? california has engaged their state legislature and law- enforcement. the american bar association opposed model ethics rules. prosecutors having to turn over
potentially exculpatory information, those rules are murky. the american bar association has proposed stronger ethics rules from any time the may know of that information. three states have adopted this. another information would be california, because it is a state level commission with a freestanding independent expert agency that is available that would subtract in these situations. researching potential issues, highlighting when they come to bear. others the you can consult with our, keeping in mind the active discussion right now, with state bar association's, opening their case file, should laboratories
have to file reports? finally, there is something like a final review by entities like the national academy of science. science is such a specific issue for these lawyers and journalists, they have a hard time understanding what a match means. one in 1000, 10 thousand, 1 million? this may all sound alike, but to a scientist and, ultimately, for a suspect, such evidence is used and can be critical in definition. host: independent caller, hello. caller: i have a comment and a question.
in a lot of these cases, where people are falsely imprisoned and then released, they're not really care and anything as far as compensation. you can say that they're getting their freedom now, but these people who have been locked up for a decade, three decades, the have pretty much lost their ability to have any kind of american dream. faced of your expertise in this subject matter, do you think it is feasible, or what sort of practical plan could you come up with, based on your knowledge, that would really stop this sort of thing from happening? feels like as far as us having the highest prison population of all the industrialized lent -- nations, how many people are imprisoned falsely? that is my question. thank you. guest: you raise a lot of good
points. let me try to respond. i and our example case, he served 28 of the next 33 years in prison. he was in ninth grade dropout with no work history. the convicted felon of a murder. you can imagine a difficult time of having a job, it is hard for anyone to get a job right now. practically? yes, depending of the ruling of the court, with proof from a clear and convincing standard, he could seek damages from the government. how practical that is,
obviously it would not matter for his children. part of the toll was that his parents died and his sister passed away without ever knowing consequence of this case. as you point out, it is more likely that they will compensate people with reduced conviction in the first place. the error rate, while another the -- not inevitable, they have the lead is extremely low. then there is the same, rather 10 guilty men go free than one innocent man convicted. what is most concerned is that there has never been a test for a forensic evidence. it cannot be proven wrong, until
dna. there have been dna examinations since 1989. rates and murders, the filing material for genetics, it comes from a universe of capital and where they were cowed a wrongful conviction -- where they work out a wrongful conviction, wrongful conviction is an illegal action. next step, anyone who looked at criminal convictions and 1983 to 1988, there is biological evidence in the final period the governor of virginia ordered a review of these cases and, of them, they found all the cases
in which they were able to determine genetic profile. 16% of these profiles did not match, they excluded defendants and suspects. there may be other factors in their. this is another set of numbers that says if you include all of these, for one of a reason, it dropped 5%. whether it is 5% or 16%, it is far higher than anyone believed. host: we have some questions coming in over the twitter for our guest, spencer hsu. guest: we have not done enough research to be able to answer that.
we know that the incarceration rate of minorities, as are the number of crimes committed, we know the area of discipline that we looked at, hair and fiber with different racial characteristics. the hair of an asian might be harder to distinguish, with fewer features. likewise, brunette -- brunette hair. there is a lot of pigmentation where it cannot be divined and
know that one of the issues we found in the lab reports of the defense that we look at, there was no set number of the match in the air. some said 15, or 20. in other words, the of the but it you could verify this was to have another examiner look at it. we could not tell from the notes. the same examiner might come up with -- different examiners might use different terms for the same hair. it is a very subjective, and the process of we're talking about. when describing the hair of the defendant, they usually use only three or four characteristics.
black, ethnic origin, and it is a broad range. people wearing their hair in a short, close cropped way, that is not a very distinguishing feature. host: adam, good morning. he wore on with spencer hsu. -- you are on with spencer hsu. caller: the governor of texas executed a man a few years back with a suspected had burned his house down with his three children in it. now they believe the man may have been innocent. a panel was convened and quickly dismissed by the governor. thank you for your time, but we do not need you. these things are just swept
under the rug. are you familiar with this case? thank you for c-span. host: he may be referring to the case of kevin todd. i am not an expert. i have heard the accounts of it. the one that i thought was the most revealing was the new yorker magazine article a couple of years ago. what is striking about this case is that critics of the death penalty have looked at this case as a possible example where a person who may have been innocent was executed, but that hasn't happened, because as the column mentioned, there was a panel that stop short of the final conclusion. from my interests, again, it has to do with forensic science.
there was a quotation in the new yorker that had one of the leading experts in the nation saying that it is better than which hunting. in other words, if she thinks she is innocent, it must be the way. arsonists have been examples for decades. handed down from older to the less experienced. what has happened over the last 20 years is that government agencies and the commerce apartment have started to to test earnings under controlled circumstances where they found that much of what was considered to be telltale evidence of arson happened in many different circumstances. like where the glass shatters and micro-fractures.
comingan's hose of water on to a window, window breaking leading to thermal ventilation, things that everyone had thought were caused by excellence. behavioral people, possibly started misfires, with fewer miss attributed work experience. host: why is that? what is the reaction to that? guest: there are two sets. anthe mid-1990's, there was
allegation of misconduct at the fbi lab stealing with high- profile investigations. even the o.j. simpson murder investigation. agents were faulted for lack of qualification and bias, potentially influence in these prosecutions. the laboratory had to start a wholesale reorder in the documentation. including their certification requirements, approving the level of the scientific training. as far as the inspector general report, it triggered a review by the department of homeland security on all their work and potential information that should be turned over. according to that review, they
set out to review 7000 cases with material and evidence that was critical yet problematic. the reason they were not notified was the legal position that needed to be turned over. . , if anyone wasn't notified it was a mistake and it was an error. whether that was legally actionable whether there was an ethical failure or the category there is my not much you can do about it they couldn't answer but shortti of showinghe prosecutorial acting out of malice, you know the best thing you could do is to notify people now.
there was a second universe andh that was almost all the cases that we looked at, the 250 had one examiner and as we pointed a out, there were many other examiners lacked the rules of protocol, the note taking practices were the same. the lab was not tracking the testimony. we have seen multiple examples including the two other d.c. agencies given the same misleading testimony, statistics and numbers from their personal experience that were not backed by any scientific research. ultimately, there was an error rate that they had researched by comparing it with the dna test results that leads us to think that the potential affected cases reached in the thousands.
the reason the department had not looked for it is the inspector general report and no one else had supposedly put two and two together. i think another reason is, legally, they had not had to. you always wanted to get to a closer version of the truth. the law, for various reasons, is based on precedent. it was good enough then, it is good enough for the court. that is a practical matter so you do not get people in with small claims that do not have merit. the science proves that the culture is at odds with the legal culture and have a different value. given how rapidly science advances and given how there are no tools that can be used to answer these questions once and for all and the cost of
incarcerating someone wrongly over the years -- would it not be economically feasible as well in the interest of justice to do a review and commission these tests? host: fabio from manhattan. democrat. hello. caller: i have a question for you. i know you are mainly focused on dna evidence, but what about those cases that do not have dna evidence? i'm talking about the case of my son which is close to me. my son was tried, found guilty and we went through appeals twice because it was considered double jeopardy. both appeals was the double jeopardy appeal, we won. the prosecutor then took it to the supreme court. this is a case going on in connecticut.
when he took it to the supreme court and the rest of appeal, they overturned the appellate decision. then we won with a double jeopardy and brought it again to the supreme court in connecticut in which, to paraphrase, they agreed to double jeopardy, of but two justices wanted to hear the case in that is why they did. after that, they're going to lead it stand that it agrees is double jeopardy but because the direct appeal they overturned which is basically a bureaucracy going on. host: do you have a question for our guest? caller: i have tried to go to reporters and everyone tells me
they are not interested because this is not anything that is new. guest: i'm sorry about that situation. it will be hard for me as an outsider not familiar with the case to be able to respond to the specifics. something you started with it is, if there is not dna, that is the game changer here. it is the rise in a specific technology or test that actually is a scientifically proven to be able to determine if a person contributed a particular piece of evidence. i think the other peace to keep in mind is, absent that test, it's very hard to disprove a negative. in the law of defense, it has evolved to handle this over hundreds of years in these kinds of situations. it is the best we have. however, a person who headed the
national academy of sciences panel in 2009, the co- chairman was the judge for circuit court of appeals, the second most influential circuit in the country. his point was that the adversarial system we rely on to work out these disputes that your son is involved in is ill- equipped to deal with scientific disputes. lawyers may not have the scientific training. judges often rely on these cases as they happen and they cannot often refer to scientific manuals. the technology and science are evolving to such a point that is difficult for even experts to keep up with the latest. the adversarial legal system cannot do this alone.
they need higher standards for labs and examiners, standard and control our testimony is processed and how the jury hears information and, most of all, have a commitment to the overall system. host: russell, independent, in florida. good morning. caller: i am involved in a veteran research program and they want to take blood for dna research and they cannot 100% guaranteed that it will not be shared with other federal agencies or the public sector which, pretty much, begs the question that if the informations is available in such a tight steady in the government, is that dna available in the private sector to anyone? it seems to me that the dna being taken, whether it be for
the va or your private physician should be sacred sites and not available for scrutiny by the private sector or the federal government. host: a privacy concern there. guest: i am not aware of this, but that sounds like it is really on the cutting edge. it sounds like you have hit the nail on the head as far as i have had to the question which is the collection of biometric datum in general, fingerprints, i scans, dna -- eye scans, dna, is a priority and is rapidly growing. with the questions i'm sure that the defense bar association has it is -- what are the rules? how do you apply the tool or the technology? who can apply and under what circumstances? do you only collect for
particular universe is? can you only convict from people who are convicted or accused of a crime? does that create a supposition or tilt the field when it is used later? and you are collecting on everybody else, are there any privacy safeguards, or are there adequate safeguards? i remember several years ago in the department of a man security, secretary michael chertoff said he was not sure people should limit data collection to people in the justice system. but someone in a private scenario wants to know where i have been it, they can take a saliva's wall off of a glass sample -- a saliva swab or what
have you. host: if you want to read more, there is a chart here along with spencer hsu's reporting. how accurate is the analysis? dna, handwriting, hair and fiber. it goes on and on. except for dna, known that it has been able to accurately link evidence to a person or a single source. mr. hsu, ky about broadening this inquiry to of the parts of the country. do you see a legislative response in washington to wall of this? >> senator pat leahy of vermont has legislation undergoing revision that would attempt revisions of the 2009 report. senator jay rockefeller is also
interested in the issue and has tried to carve out space for scientific agencies to set standards for law enforcement. the top scientific adviser for president obama has set up a process to see what policy steps could be taken administratively without the need for legislation. i think the progress for legislation is slim because it is an election year. budgets are tight at every level. you could set up an office independent from the fbi to take over research. each of these practice groups, so to speak, have panels of experts to set standards. for a long time coming
practitioners set the standards. the people conducting the operations were also is setting best practices. that is great if they want to convict you. you may want a second opinion. there is some discussion about whether agencies like the national center for technology, a commerce department agency, should be involved. but there the agency that investigated arson and fire. i guess, also, i did not want to the people with the impression -- it looked it. these have worked for a long time. -- look. .. even with hair, error rates