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tv   Book TV  CSPAN  May 14, 2012 1:30am-2:00am EDT

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muslim mind? >> robert braley just spoke on this and everybody talks about the conflict between the west and islam but he argues there was a time islam was open to intellectual ideas but when the ottoman turks took over the receding of intellectual fervor and today there is a discouragement and of the year of intellectual inquiry >> host: we're talking to the intercollegiate studies institute
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>> host: larry sabato are we impatient. >> guest: we are a very impatient people and get so rather easily. unemployment is high and the economy's growth is minimal and people are unhappy they have reason. absolutely we are impatient and have always have been maybe which is why we accomplish so much as a society but it has
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consequences with politicians. >> host: "pendulum swing" is the most recent book. two years. is that long enough for congress to achieve big things? >> not any more. if you are lucky you have to with three months of serious policy making then the rest is spent on the campaign with the presidents and the senate and that is the changes that i most regret to that in prior decades that you have people in congress to spend half the term bond legislating now we just seem to move back the start date earlier angry
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election cycle. >> host: taping this interview march 2012 no congress has finished its work for the year. the election's not until november. is the fact the congress has done its business, what does that say about our country? >> doesn't say we have no problems they could be working on but to politics take precedence over legislating and a voter imposed gridlock with the democratic president conservative house and close senate and unless you have 60 reliable quote says, you cannot do a lot. it was boater created so i suppose they're doing what they asked them to do one
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agenda to barack obama and 12 different senators and the house had a completely different agenda but you are ready to there is not much that will happen. it is so anti-makes 2011 legislative year looks like the new deal. >> host: do people go to the polls now weighing that day though for divided government? >> we have different electorates year-to-year at the center of politics we put out a book every two years of the presidential election or the midterm. when i have learned, you have to look not just that
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the conditions or the state of the economy but to what kind electorate shows that the polls? presidential elector is bigger and broader more representative of the general population midterm elections are squarely and the time out -- turnouts can be tiny. who is the most upset or the angriest? they turnout disproportionately midterm years by we have president's suffering bad midterms. >> host: 2006 and 2010 what was the electorate? >> year opposite. not that people didn't vote
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in both but that is george bush sixth year itch the electorate was angry mainly for the iraq war and a strong anti-bush trend discernible even in the red states. democrats took control of both the house and the senate the bush presidency was legislatively over the still had veto power with administrative regulation and four policy but it changed the character of his presidency and the country preparing for the obama election 2010 mirror opposite. a new democratic president passing controversial health care the bad economy
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continued beyond the first two years. who turned out? those unhappy with the bad economy determined to use end of all but a message presidents don't like the message they receive. >> host: a good turnout midterm? >> 40% close 60% did not show up to compare that to 2008 you had 62% show up this year i will be surprised if we don't have a six tier 64% with a strong turnout starting in 2000 for people polarized with the
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bush presidency and had a narrow election of the people participated to a much greater degree over 2000 or 1996 with clinton be reelected. >> host: looking back 30 or 40 years same age read the? >> unfortunately. short after the last ice age but the trends change was circumstances and the parties have changed. the biggest change not just the american public but the party is. you'll find a larger percentage of republicans
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voted for the civil-rights bill with moderate republicans with a lot of conservative democrats from the south and interior western states to get the big changes you needed a bipartisan coalition the same for ronald reagan would get the votes on his economic plan republican support was strong but some defected he got support from conservative democrats but today you have to caucuses that were as polarized almost as night and day the early part of the 20th
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century better opposite one another they don't speak the same language or the same planet. >> is there reason this happen to? >> people and by a field look at this. and has been noted correctly research ourselves out to where represent our viewpoints picking wary we live if we feel comfortable so with heavily partisan districts the controversial social issues those
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correlate with your degree of the desolation so we sort of ourselves out to to buy a house that a particular area if you put those together it matches up in the patches of red and blue. >> us this continue? >> we entitled that we went strong way a democratic very conservative tea party republicans. and the bad times with bad economies people with the state of their lives we will see a lot more pendulum
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swing with the electorate thinks things are going on quite well. they don't feel motivated to participate to the degree they do when they are unhappy. read just have the deepest recession and it will take years with the mass of $15 trillion debt to calls increasing at 25 years of these will continue to produce economic changes. >> host: what is your crystal ball? >> that is our website. the center is about seven bridges a patient and one
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way we pull people into politics is two dangle predictions, the senate race, the house race and other trends in politics. is a newsletter that is free. every thursday morning 6:00 a.m., we remind people. >> the web site? >> this center or just click on the crystal ball. get your fix every thursday part of the university of virginia? >> absolutely. is copyrighted i am a product of the university of virginia they have my heart and probably my sold. >> host: the accuracy rate is quite high.
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2008 to meet projected the electoral college we were one-vote off we missed the district in nebraska that went for obama. i kick myself many times over that. 98.6% of the senate to house and governor's races and a similar percentage 2010. >> host: what factors do you look at? >> polling returns and the financial data to know what they are spending and steady the demographics people just found this out to going to gloat or evangelical population mitt romney wins
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when the state has a high percentage of evangelicals lower levels of education read santorum wins. demography is destiny. we plug if the demographics as well. >> host: "pendulum swing" has reporters and authors write team in here and the focus is christine o'donnell 2010. was that an aberration and predictable? >> not 2010 there were several tea party candidates' including sharon angle lost erase that could have been one lourdes tea party candidate in colorado that lost. >> mike castle would have
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one betsy and elite. there are three seats write their nile joe biden would break the tie but that is a different atmosphere for policy social conser3
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one betsy and elite. there are three seats write their nile joe biden would break the tie but that is a different atmosphere for policy social conservatives as well. they get them in trouble with moderates who were open to the appeal with fiscal issues. >> host: year earlier book
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called the being currency? >> it was a bat -- about attack journalism to jump on every conceivable hint of scandal real or not. whether of little misstatement made by an aide that mentions the etch-a-sketch. they focus on trivial things that don't matter at all. now the the idea has changed enormously. the whole world is different
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yet to very similar. we still half coffee being frenzies. >> whether some you were writing about? >> we covered everything from the secret bond through gary hart and his affair and bill clinton who was the ultimate super the been frenzy at that time. clinton provided my book with extra chapters. >> host: taping at university of virginia late march 2012 what does the crystal ball say about the
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house and senate and the presidency? >> we do you selection models but they only kick again with mid summer. with you have house members
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and challengers and gubernatorial candidates fighting for attention and media tends to cover the presidential race. they need all kinds of things they have to pay for.
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if it is a giant differential can make a difference who spends more could have been head. not in every case go. if the president to go race there's so much freedom media and online people get what they need to know even if they never see the advertising. it does not matter as much. except motor contact. banking your votes. mitt romney had the ability to bank the boat survey. obama will have more money. >> host: following politics on a normal basis are you surprised if they say they are undecided?
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>> is becoming rare people will tell you i am independent if you examine the voting record, let you find out they have a strong predisposition. there is a social bonus to do that but most have a party lean and in practice they vote to four 1/3 party candidates 1/2 as much as those who have a strong i did the vacation. in general i know they can ien decided burgess to that undecided unless they tried to avoid of argument. >> host: how many people switched every two years? >> it is fairly low because
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of different electorate. i don't think people change very often. this is not like the '70s with ticket splitting and switching the drive of strong issues that both parties had moderate elements but we don't see that any more. maybe if we had where people floating family do would be better to seven looking back over our history what the elections are your favorites >> of course, the election of 1800 just imagine if
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thomas jefferson have lost? i cannot even imagine. he made a big difference for the united states with the louisiana purchase was useful for jefferson because his philosophy balked when he became president it tends to shave off the sharp edges but anybody would say 1828 the election of jackson as it was the beginning of the new era in 1860. how could you not? we had a long dry spell because 1896 was realigning win mckinley won the first time when we shifted from a
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closely divided country and they were fairly close to be substantially republican through 1932 would reflect to said democratic side than the rolling realignment that went from the late '60s through reagan. we have a very divided country and see how owe you are in power plant could planes or bad things happen. it is obvious that you do. it is so fundamental to politics. >> host: one of your books , this is a series. what is that? >> these are college
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booklets handed out to in colleges give veined the fundamentals of the upcoming election year and many are new voters to have other things to do when they were a junior high or high-school. we've tried to bring them up to speed and the background to the parties and candidates to vote intelligently. >> host: midterm that ms.? book every two years? >> yes. of normally they go against the incumbent fed because of 9/11 that broke the democratic and roll in


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