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tv   Book Discussion on Latino America  CSPAN  December 14, 2014 6:03pm-6:16pm EST

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intervention. one can give moms help, supporting them with it, and yet we don't do that. and that leaves these kids with these -- i think that we absolutely need to do more with education, but we need to think of it more broadly to also incorporate quality and also think of other ways in which the pipeline to education becomes much richer. >> please join me in thanking our guest. >> thank you. >> next, booktv speck speaks with gary segura about his book "lan teen know america".
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from the 31st annual miami back fair. this is 15 minutes. >> we're out on the street in windy miami, joining us now is gary segura, a professor at stanford and the co-author of this book "latino america: how america's most dynamic population is poised to transform the politics of the nation." professor, segura, how do you define latino? >> well, we let them define themselves, government definition of hispanic anyones who identifies or is a descene sent of immigrants or immigrant from a lattin american spanish speaking nation. some folks would include spain in that, some includes portuguese speakers. for our survey, the basis of our book, we ask people if they
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think of themselves that way, latino or hispanic. so this is the u.s. population from lattin american connections. the book is based on the work -- a polling firm that focuses on latino for political purposes and advocacy. we interviewed 80,000 people over the last seven years who see themselves as latino, and without them literally hundreds of different questions about their views of government, politics, society, life in the united states, families, health, any topic you can imagine. >> host: what percentage of the u.s. population is latino? >> guest: as of to the 2010 christian sunday, right at 17%. the population numbers change quickly over the course of the time. by the 2020 census it should be in the 20% range. >> host: translate that into numbers. >> guest: right now there's 55 million latinos in the united
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states. >> host: how many of them are citizens, how many are here illegally? >> guest: there are 11 million undocumented persons in the united states. about 50% of them are hispanic, so maybe 5.5 or so million, six million. the rest of the population are either legal immigrants or naturalized citizens or native-born citizens and the distribution depends on the age group. adult population, 60% of adults are citizens of the united states, either through native birth or naturalization. the first 40%, natives, and of the remainder, most are legal residents and then the rest undocumented. among young people it's 93% native person. and so that is a really interesting political fact, because it means that as those people turn 18, they all enter the eligible electorate, not
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through naturalization or crossing any border, just by turning 18. >> host: 17%, going into the 20% of the u.s. population. what about voting population? what percentage are latino? >> guest: in the 2014 election, about eight percent in the 2012 election, 10 percent. and the reason for that fluctuation is that working class people and people of color in all racial and ethnic groups turn out less in mid-term elections. turnout in the 2014 election was the low nest recent history >> host: why? >> guest: the level of democratic turnout was low because of being disspiritted, being turned off by the politics. and the overall interest in government right now in the country is unhappiness, sense of alienation. the politics in washington are so, so dysfunctional.
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but going back to 2012, it was ten percent. over history there was eight percent in 2008 -- actually nine percent in 2008, ten percent in 2012. 10.5 or 11% in 2015. but the numbers lag the population number for a variety of reasons. the noncitizens, obviously, are counted in the total but not in the electorate. the other is the age distribution. for many u.s. citizens are still young, under the age of 18, are not eligible to vote. >> host: what some of the issues that latinos in america look at, focus on, which percentage rub russian democrat, et cetera. >> guest: there's a variety of issues that are important to latinos. now, prior to the entire immigration debate, the issues that latinos most often told us about when we asked about the most important issue facing the
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country is always education, jobs, healthcare and public safety. so, when the speaker of the california assembly used to say the latino agenda is the american agenda. everyone is in favor of jobs. everyone wants quality health care. everyone wants safe streets and good schools. those are issues latinos identify. until the mid-20,000s and then immigration becomes a really big issue. over the last four or five years immigration and jobs have been fluctuating at one and two, depending on the political environment at the time. obviously the great recession had a big impact on latinos. >> host: break it down, democrats and republican. >> guest: in terms of party registration the numbers are lower because there's some great work by my colleagues showing that more and more people are likely to be independent in terms of party registration. that said, when they actually
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turn out to vote, historically for the last 30 years or so about two-thirds/one-third, democratic to republican in the last elections it has crept up to 17% in presidential elections because of the long-running immigration debate. >> host: legal latino immigrants, do they tend to be more republican than maybe guest workers or undocumented? >> guest: no. in fact more and more latinos are more likely, once they enter the citizen population, are more likely to be democrats than other latinos. republican latinos come from two different categories. the first is, here in miami, cubans. cuban americans are obviously very outspoken, very politically active, play a pivotal role in florida politics. and then the other group would be -- and generallation, third generation, fourth generation,
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assimilated, socially mobile latinos, and in the 90s we saw those folks becoming more republican until the immigration issue heated up and then they ran back to democratic identity because the felt their ethnicity had become politicized. i want to get a point about cubans. we spend a lot of time talking about cuban-american pop ticks. they're only 3.5% of the national latino population. >> host: in your subtitle, you would the word "dynamic." how america's most dynamic population is poised to transform the politics of the nation. white do you call them the most dynamic? >> guest: dynamism means movement. and they're dynamic in a variety of different ways. first of all, they're on the move. so, if grew back two censuses ago. latinos were in five states and were a substantial percentage of several other states, mostly the southwest. if you look today-lad teen knows
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are the largest minority in 30 state-actually the pleasurity in california and about to be the plurality in texas. latino voters made a difference in georgia, in kansas, a growing latino population in iowa and arkansas, places we don't normally associate with latinos. show to population is on the move. the second thing is they're politically dynamic. we look at the two-thirds to three-quarters of the votes the democrats are getting now among lat teen knees and say it's not a interesting. but in 2004, when george w. bush running for re-election, got% of the latino vote. so the movement from 40% republican to just 25% republican in two elections, that movement, that movement we don't get any any other racial and ethnic population in the united states. consecutive the exception of asias which is a different conversation. >> host: the other word you use is "transform." >> guest: i think that the
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presence of latinos in the political structure has the opportunity to change the political dynamic in a variety of locations. if you look in some of the southern states, like georgia, where latinos are moving in, what has long been a black-white racial card in politics and in society, is becoming a multiracial paradigm and that's changing coalitions, and you're getting these moments where african-american politicians are taking the lead on issues like immigration reform because of black-brown coalitions to make the politics work in the state of georgia and will be going forward. you look in places like texas. texas has the opportunity to become a democratic state if the latino population is thoroughly engaged and registered and motivated to vote. that hasn't happened yet. people always like to ask us, when will texas turn blue? and my coprincipal says people think we have this secret date. like on march 18, 2017, texas is
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blue. doesn't work like that. but i always like to answer that texas is blue now. there's majority of texas residents who are nonwhite, and it's probably the case of the maternallate -- majority of the texan citizens are halt teen know. but they're just not at the polls. >> host: in your book, 32% of the 2010 or 2008 election, the electorate in texas was latino. give us your assessment of the president's recent executive order on immigration. politically, it's early to make that judgment. but what your immediate assessment. >> guest: my initial reaction it's a very big policy win and political win but in neither instance it's ideal. advocates would like to have a legislation that would extend beyond the life of this
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administration. that wasn't going to happen. the house of representatives had 515 days in counting on the senate bill and refused to bring it up. most advocate inside the house of representatives, including republicans, will tell you there is a majority in the house to pass the senate bill, which i why the speaker won't bring it to the floor in that sense, by the president acting, the political wind for democrats huge, because latinos are going to coalesce behind democrats more enthuse particularly than they have so far, and latino turnout was down in 2014. this will be a big political boon for whoever succeeds obama at the top of the ticket in 2016. >> host: do you newfoundland the frustration that some people feel, though, with all the sudden allowing -- making an executive order with regard to immigration instead of having got through the congress? >> guest: i would say i do and i don't. i say that some of


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