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tv   Book Discussion on The Hundred- Year Marathon  CSPAN  February 18, 2015 11:39pm-1:13am EST

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even in the end. hungary retains its currency the hungarian footing has collapsed and the ability to repay mortgages has devolved went to the european union and said your going to have to restructure and they refused. he said, okay. i. i understand that you refuse. we are repaying about 60 percent of the dollar and your other option as we don't repay anything. we default. give us a call when you make a decision. two things happened. first, the europeans decided that the european -- the eurocrats, i should say decided that he was a monster and they did not object to the bailout. they were happy to get $.60 on the dollar. hungary is
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interesting because of the model of how other countries might handle the untenable that crisis that they face. when this happened the polls started looking carefully. the romanians them in the greek election the hungarian models held out as a solution. print the dark -- drachma and ounce your paying back drachma or nothing cannot pay back a certain percentage. in other words do what american airlines does. it's a populist leader who wanted to crash down and hold on to hungary very popular or has been and institute a bunch of really impressive laws in terms of free speech taxing, media so one cannot let this to me is less about hungary but a model that might emerge in europe of the populist
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right-wing leader, very popular for defending angry against the italian and austrian banks. you know i have dealt a lot with hungarians. we don't have a banking system. the italians do. the austrians austrians to cover germany does. we don't have one. that is that is a kind of you that is being taken advantage of it is important. part of it is an indifference to human rights, civil rights and part of it is really tapping into the hostility of hungarians to the european banking system that they felt caused the crisis.
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>> high. >> high. going back to 1992 and the formation of the eu is they're a a concept other than peace and prosperity that they could have built the european union on? is they're a concept that can survive? >> they wanted one, but they're is know common european identity. the the problem is france and germany have history and in there history they are each other's enemies. so enemies. so when you take a look at france and britain they have history but they are against each other. the histories of the european nations do not drop on commonality of attention. one of the things that they want to do is forget that history because if you don't forget the history you can't get people to work together. it was not let's dwell --
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let's not dwell on the past for the future. there is a good thing to do if your future is rosie and does not face crises. the problem is the only thing they could dwell on the promise that meant something peace prosperity, a european civility, a decent society. the problem with that is that it can handle everything but crisis in the europeans facing the 1st crisis have found themselves unable to handle it together there was no history to bind them. it is hard to think of what they would have done otherwise. they used to have something called christianity and they do not really have it now. even christianity was divided between catholics and protestants and so on but these things that would have united europe are replaced by secularism and that secularism was a very
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thin rule upon which to hold together an entity especially one upon which you have to ask for blood, sweat, toil, and tears. thank you very much. [applause] [inaudible conversations]
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>> and director for south and central asia and it is a a pleasure for me today to host this discussion on the 100 year marathon now
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senior fellow and dir. for chinese strategy here at the hudson institute institute a distinguished defense policy advisor, former high-ranking government official and author of numerous books and reports on china. the book which i commend to everyone in the audience preferably probably bought in hardcover the people's republic of china since its founding has been pursuing its long-term goal to reestablish chinese preeminence and michael thinks it has outwitted the united states in the process not not long ago i wrote a book on pakistani us relations. magnificent illusions in which i make a similar argument. it seems everybody manages to outwit washington dc.
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the american government assumes that the others basically want the same thing that they do. there is an assumption that that is what they want for their is a simple view of american foreign-policy in particular the superpower has been based on a very simple binary, who can we bomb who can we take at school lunch it went from the country that wants to bomb and take out to lunch. it has become far more interesting before we get started with michael's comments in my own question question-and-answer and then open it to question and
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answers from you we have a message from congressman randy forbes the chairman of the china carcass in the house of representatives for me the carcass from china that the china cock the china carcass ca use the us carcass that the carcass and give you my carcass tremendously important that the future trajectory of chinese power. the insight and space bar and it's the degrees of combining knowledge with an understanding of us security interests.
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it what it congressional staffer consultant to the pentagon office of net assessment for what is really is really part of what makes is that a unique contribution is the recounting of evolution. rather than simply choosing a and sitting comfortably within it as happens far too often in the views on changed as the facts on the ground changed. a long-term competitor of the united states and the has been a powerful voice articulating those powers should look like.
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if you like of the century ad it is more important than ever that the us look to the us china relationship holistically and in the context of a long-term extended coalition that will play out over the course of many years. i am committed to ensuring america's presence particularly in the military realm remains robust. areas like unmanned aviation, the us and during advantage in emerging technologies must be appropriately resourced. i want to thank you for the work that you do in promoting a strong us national defense and a continued us presence. america's commitment has done much to ensure peace and prosperity over the last seven decades. we have an opportunity to put in place policies that will allow this presence to endure for another seven decades and real.
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this is an important book by a serious speaker in the field and his recommendations offer much to consider. i thank you for allowing me to share thoughts. [applause] >> i would like michael to start off with a few remarks about his book. the critical question in your book is a discussion of the china dream i think a good starting.would be describing the agreement as you see and also to answer the critical question what is the china dream? welcome to this discussion.
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>> thank you, ambassador. i would answer your question about the china dream by explaining a few things in the book that i think is new evidence about china's secret strategy for china calls the 100 year marathon. the chinese believe we're in your 65. they're are things are proposing the last chapter that we can do and one of them -- and they are related to what the china dream is. they are compatible. it is not a zero sum.
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the overlap is the focus of a number of organizations here in washington dc that i don't only praise but say we have to expand the budget and do more. i list several of them in the last chapter. the national endowment for democracy to my great deal in china have to do a great deal more. the budget began low and has the same president it has always had. he's like a a lifetime president of the national battle for democracy. and he attended the oslo ceremony when he received the nobel peace prize and was not there because he was in jail the time we drove
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down to tiananmen square the when in the theater students and no one knew what was going to happen. it appeared to be a peaceful demonstration against corruption of all things is a chain smoker command aviation glasses on. he went to oslo. he and many other countries who were either they're or not there drew attention from china. the china dream is to have with the color harmonization
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in the position is with this happens all countries we will get along and they're won't be organizations like the national dollar for democracy or trouble from human rights watch amnesty international especially not from radio free asia which i i see some people in the room help me create. it resisted strongly by the state department. they testified against it. every broadcast in mandarin about human rights and democracy and various things i don't want to give all of these organizations names. the us chamber of commerce issued a report about trade secrets being stolen from a
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chinese companies being treated in favorable ways american companies not. the china dream seems to be quite comprehensive. they thought a lot about it. they say do not worry. china we will not be a hegemon a tyrannical company. i want to mention a couple of chinese names that i hope you all remember and keep with you in the book and are important to understand chinese thinking. can everybody please say bob hegemon that means tyrant away america leads the world but the china when it has double or triple our economy today surpassed us to the chinese economists are writing that by 2030 we will be doubled.
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triple or more. but they say that china we will not be above at that time. it we will use its virtue soft soft power, natural attractiveness and perhaps the military forces when there is disharmony and countries do not go along with the virtuous that this is all part of there vision of the china dream that in some books they actually talk openly about the american model how american surpassed england and great britain without firing a shot by a a series of techniques they believe there studies have shown.
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one book in particular called the cops of burden by a british professor who explains there was an anti-american faction is so dull that these americans get out of hand. we have to crush them or use force against them in the caribbean in panama during the time of theodore roosevelt. the chinese view seems to be the hundred year marathon should not have the use of force as part of it ideally and they are quite sensitive in their writings as to who is who in washington dc the healthy forests, a friend of china, someone who someone who needs to be supported praised and visit beijing and who is an unhealthy
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force trying to setback this hundred year marathon process as a whole chapter i give on what i call the message police becoming more and more difficult to get just the straight facts about us china relations. there is so much spin applied by either the chinese government itself or americans who claim to have an enlightened understanding that is kind of a long answer. if i were an ambassador would not give such a long answer the phone trying to get into why i wrote the book by how much i borrowed from their own writings try to explain a sympathetic way, this is there dream. ..
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>> you know a lot of the jokes about americans. >> talk about your book and how it led to that? >> well we admired chinese art we have a lot of the dynasty could sculptures and sometimes chinese delegations come to our
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home in safety truly love china you can give back to the motherland. but now chinese art is going up in value this particular artist performs something that is called the exploding christmas tree about a month before christmas, my wife had been the cochairing that raised $2 million for national asian art museum and the next day secretary of state clinton gave an award and there was a big payment made to blow up an american christmas tree on the national mall. and everyone including me and one individual was holding up his medal one that he was given for contributing to art. and i said why are we paying so much money to blow up a christmas tree close to
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christmas on the national mall. and then with the help of one of the defectors i talk about one of the defectors that helped me check out the artist and i've done all kinds of things and i didn't think that the state department knew either, but he is quite a nationalistic guy, he talked about how 9/11 was an artistic spectacle to held in his book was called unrestricted warfare, how to bring america to its knees. it's about to chinese colonels that i talk about in the book. and so i thought that i would show how susan and i tried to help chinese art and how we go in good faith and see the show and we learn, oh my gosh there is a bigger story than we
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realize. and in many ways we pay him and it's part of a larger story that in our own traditions one of tom sawyer is a immortal tricks is very close to the chinese strategy, having to whitewash the fence, being punished for it very bad but he tricked his friends into doing this for him. so how does he do that? it appeals to him, only the best person to do this. and they'll do what is called. [speaking in native tongue] and one means action and the other means to control through nonaction. part of another concept we can talk about in here, just like you sure are smart. including doing things earlier
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than the other guy can do them. so it is all part of the same idea, use the other countries force or technology to win the hundred year marathon and i tried to show how some of the defectors told us that this is what china has been doing. >> that is from the book. the americans still don't see them the way that they've cs. a condition that has been persisting for decades. it is across the sea and old you hiding in plain sight. including ancient chinese folklore, all of these strategies are designed to beat an opponent by using an opponents own strength against him without him knowing that he is in a contest. can you explain?
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>> the reason the title of the book, it is a subtitle called china's secret strategy. and in fact i talked about the fight club, the first rule of it is you don't talk about fight club, so china does not openly described this strategy. in fact, they are very sensitive about being exposed and it goes back to a secret quote the chairman himself told other leaders in 1955 and repeated a couple of more times. having a very hard time getting this quote out of the chinese. one of the hawks reveal that in 2010. the quote from him is that you know china since contribution to all mankind is going to be to catch up an unsurpassed america. and so he tells his colleagues
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that this will take us from 50 to 75 years, but we have to do it and he begins to pull away from the soviet model 20 to 40 million people die and then they get onto the new approach of the secret strategy and we need to follow many aspects of the american model and get the americans painting our fence for us. how can they do that? well they've begin to remember science and technology and investments and exports to america, giving companies that come provide high tech to china all of this big package we have to get if we are going to implement this when they begin to do that when they say we need to follow the example of the three kingdoms we need to bring
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nixon to beijing. at this point they are issuing anti-china comments and president nixon gives a press conference having a missile defense system against china, he and his new book reveals five times the chinese invite him to come to china. in five times the americans either don't get the message or they turn it down. yes, it's in his book. specifically at one point a letter that i didn't really believe existed it is a letter from the chinese to president nixon to please come to china. and he says that we turned this down because it was too risky. and so the problem with understanding the secret strategy is that until these
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documents are declassified on both sides, we don't really know how the secret strategy began and how it has been working out. and we got them to declassify a number of these documents and the american presidential decisions to and from kissinger and nixon and also part of the chinese story began to come out. so i hope that others will try to trace this secret strategy. and if you say what about the book by the general what about the americans not taking the initiative to open china the china open up america and then chinese officials and scholars will say yes how did you know that. so we are making progress unraveling the true history of this secret strategy. so basically that china wooed
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america with a clear plan and americans think that they would china went a plan and it was like several strategists rooted in folkloric. i mean this is a nation when you talk about history it's like it doesn't matter. >> yes yes. >> so how is this country going to be able to understand another culture or country that thinks and hundred year terms, we are lucky that people can have his plan and it seems like the person will be at reelected. so how does america deal with that? >> well, what we try to do is put the issue of china and the narrative on the presidential
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election and debate agenda for 2016. china was not much of an issue in 2012, mitt romney has a chapter on china in his book called no apologies and he brings up that we need to be more competitive with china. but there is not really much of a debate. what we would like to see in 2016 is the media that really dominates the issues, everybody knows jim lehrer, fox news, they are going to raise a topic in the presidential debate they better be ready. so if the media starts to say what is this all about, are they really doing these things to us are they so naïve and gullible we will get our candidates to be engaged with the topic. and so far only two of them have really talked about it. elizabeth warren has a comment on mine when she was talking about losing jobs the middle
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class, how china invests in infrastructure and she gives a percentage of gdp so she's kind of admiring that chinese model that only america could be like that, kind of like the book i calm friedman, book title is roughly we used to be like that. there is a similar book called foreign policy begins at home. and so the idea is there, but it's not in a presidential issue because there is so much complacence be. because the narrative of the media today is that china is going to collapse it is backward, we can look down on them but besides we opened up china, we are the ones responsible for this growth. that narrative is all wrong in my opinion. i tried to show what the evidence in this book that if it is a different narrative, then china is outfoxing us and that
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is a presidential candidate kind of question. as others ask candidates, what about this book "the hundred-year marathon." have you read that? and they say oh, what book is that. so we have discussed this and now we are talking about other dreams. [laughter] and my dream would be that you actually share with the audience the haakon a dream, they share with them what you have described in your book as the assumptions made by americans about china. but i want to talk about the question of economics because militarily the united states is far superior and has much more military prowess and much more countries in the world this challenge that you talk about is
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a secret strategy, this is someone who says there's economically your economy is not doing so well and you cannot blame china for it, what they are doing is that they have a better plan for their own improvement. >> that's right, they got the capitalist charade. that's what i call it. how do they design their current economic system? well, they got it in large part from a combination of the world bank, the imf, the american economist and a wonderful defective from taiwan that swim across to china and ended up going off to the university of chicago, from the conservative economist in chicago provides a
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lot of advice for how to create an economy that will break the rules of the world trade organization and will appear to be capitalist. that is why it is called the capitalist charade. what will be broadly have state owned and the government intelligence services will provide trade secrets that they steal from other companies around the world including germany and give them to the state owned enterprises that they plan to call in as the national champion, a stable company is going to get on the fortune 500 list. does anyone know how many chinese companies used to be on this list? fifteen years ago? zero. how many today? ninety. almost a fifth of the risk. many of them are state owned.
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this approach maraud he comes with the famous economist, what does the united states do about this? well, a friend of mine makes him vice president of the world bank for five years. he and some other famous economist in china have the forecast now that china's growth rate is going to stay and they believed deeply in this and so the kind of question that you raise about economics, trying to say that they are really not following the rules. when you look at the world trade organization, when you look at
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u.s. trade representative's annual report as is very quietly sang to you guys are breaking the rules all the time and there's an effort by some organizations in washington to see the chinese even more. and right now the hot topic in our business pages in washington and beijing as well as something called the i.t. struggle going on. it is the hottest topic. it is the bilateral investment treaty. and this includes that they will treat them the same as national champions. the talks are secret, there is a general discussion in the press that they are not going well. there's other trade negotiations going on.
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so the tpp as it is called by insiders says that you can't have national champions be doing what china is doing. but they know the entry price is going to be good knowledge that they have these gigantic companies that are unlike any company in the world. maybe some of the natural resources are like that, but to have a ceo chosen by the communist party, to have them talk about these decisions, to feed espionage from other companies in the world, trade secrets, to give them low market loans, to have ambassadors overseas, to be like you give the message that pakistan airlines need to do this, but they are not supposed to show
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favoritism. so this is really quite important but if we focus on a chinese weapon system here or missile there, that is important to the pentagon, but actually i don't have much military stuff in here. and like this is someone trying to raise money for the long-range bomber. it was announced today by the air force that the air force would like to see about 100 of them, you can do the arithmetic and some officers have even said that this bomber is all about china, penetrating deep into china because they say oh, you need this. this is not about military things but the technological political terms from china and we talk about this.
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>> how manufacturing is really struggling as well. >> basically the whole idea needs to be what is the purpose and should we replace manufacturing with something else in this country and that has not yet happened. and also what do you think about this? [inaudible] >> you know this is certainly part of americans. >> i was just sharing jokes which are meant to make people think and mistakes are made. and you still also have a joke as well. [applause] >> exactly, i have to stand up for this.
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>> absolutely. >> the doctor mentions in his book about this. it was back from 1969 and the joke is as follows. the kgb tells me that you have a new supercomputer that can predict events in the year 2000 and nickson says yes we have such a computer and then he says can you tell me what the name the bureau members will be then. and there's apposite the other end and then he says ha ha, your computer is not so great after all. and he said he can answer your question, but i cannot read it and he said why not and nickson says well, it is in chinese. [laughter] and so the fourth assumption
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this brings complete cooperation and i think that you and i certainly agree upon that. and this is a general assumption especially in the state department that engagement leads to cooperation and the other side actually manipulates the engagement and that is something that i think is interesting. the second assumption is that china is on the road to democracy and you believe that that is not the case and the third assumption is that china is fragile, that it's not going to be militaristic. >> a big pressure is that they will collapse and it will be a terrible thing. >> and then there is an assumption that they want to be and are like us. and of course that talks about this in assumption that i have dealt with since i've been 18 years old.
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>> and for example, al qaeda doesn't want the same thing. the guy that is willing to kill himself doesn't necessarily have a better life. so there is an assumption that everyone wants the same thing and that's really undermining in foreign policy and ability to deal with this. and then that china's talks are weak. tell us about that. because you seem to think that they are not as weak. >> well, the chinese military hawks are friends of mine and i take them by name in my acknowledgments. i think the chinese generals and admirals and i say that this book would not have been possible without them. and so they have kind of i hate to say the words suffered but they read in doctor kissinger's book on china and many in china that hawks are a fringe element
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a kind of crazy element. they are irresponsible and out of power. but a chinese hawk is actually in the government, wears a uniform in many cases, writes books and participates as what you might call a force in china. arguing against this and identifying some of this as well. doves are -- there's a couple of debates going on right now. one is should the constitution of china be above that communist party. and of course the hawks to say no and the party knows what to do so the constitutions are to name, but it's below the party. and this has consequences all over china for the rule of law
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and for the future democracy and human rights. in another debate going on and eat he told everyone that henry kissinger flew to china you can get this online, it's a youtube video. and doctor kissinger about three years ago four years ago, flew there it's a big stadium and everybody is singing mao songs. and he is shown and he thinks doctor kissinger for coming and he makes a short speech. the idea is that it's kind of the future of china, he might be the next president and that this is a good thing because he's helping poor people, he has kind of a program to bring back and
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there was a deadlocked three to three [inaudible] arrested and put in prison for life, or not. what the heck. the vote is three to three and they had to call washington because the vice president was here visiting and he had a tie vote. so these are media rumors because that is very sensitive information inside china as to how they choose their next leader. allegedly the vice president called back about that which
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then leads to a gentleman who is the head of security services in china also on the standing committee and he gets arrested and he is going to jail for life. and then some military officers singing the songs went docs -- one by one they had been arrested and they were going to jail for life. so you're getting a look at hawks versus doves. in this case it appears the hawks might have lost. but as soon as the president takes office, he does something extremely interesting, taking the other six members, the top seven guys that run china and he takes them to the temple of the hawks, call the national eczema china, susan and i went there and said that everyone should
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go. if you want to understand the hundred year marathon, it's laid out there. the world's biggest museum by design. and in it -com,-com ma the 100 year marathon is laid out. the first one is 1840 to 1949 demonizing the americans, by the way. then it talks about the next hundred years talking about the restoration, meaning restoring china to where it had eight quarter to a third of the global gdp. so in his first time out as president, he is going to play homage to the hawks. and then he starts to have a series of meetings and he indicates that he is really receptive to the hawks.
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and that includes the son of the president, he has written a long essay on how everything good comes from war. and the other individual is a major general who i met at stanford and he has phd's from berkeley and political science and engagements, you know, if you engage these two guys have degrees in political science, they go home and they say the americans are out to start a war >> we were joking there about
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this. [laughter] >> so you get the idea of the hawks versus doves to escamilla also talk about chinese history and in great detail and of course the whole subject of how china is viewed and how they view china. but i will open it up for questions from the audience and i'm sure that there are many. my eyes would be to introduce yourself and let us try to get as many as possible. so hands up for the questions. let's go with the first question right here. >> hello, this is doctor christopher ford.
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author of a very important book on china. >> i'm definitely interested in reading your book, thank you for your comments today. to the extent that i have not read it we are still dealing with this issue of secrecy in the title and it appeals to me as if much of it is not in fact all that secret and my question builds upon that. and it strikes me that it's been clear for quite some time that the chinese situation has been very resentful on the world stage and they have been upset by the way in which they have a fall on the world stage with the result as they see it of a whole that mean of foreign depredations and humiliations and they have been convinced that this was sort of a birthright for china of which they feel unfairly deprived.
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they have been very dedicated to the idea of national rejuvenation in return. and they assume that shouldn't particularly virtuous we'd stayed alive, unlike the united states or others that the rest of the world was sort of harmoniously come into this with the norms and values and these are things that are not in any way secret. so to the extent that these are part of this these are things that have been hiding in plain sight as mentioned a few minutes ago. and i guess the question then is the interesting issue almost becomes one last of chinese secrecy about this than of what it is about us and our policy community and the community that
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has refused to see what has been hiding in plain sight. so i think to ask about that. turn it around and tell us how it is and why does that we have responded are not responded in a way that we have to this fairly nonsecret strategy. >> that's an excellent question. i think that there are aspects of chinese strategy that her secrets. what you're laying out correctly the theme is of the chinese narratives that are going to be covered in your next book on how the chinese see america that is probably known in china, one of the themes on the national museum all of the various things you have laid up. and this includes avenging the
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hundred years of civilization. but where it comes secret is that techniques and means that are used to implement these broad themes in the book is going to come out november 1 and do you know why it is late? because i thought, i have to lay out evidence of this secret strategy. i was not in control of the evidence, it had to go through the fbi, the cia and the dod and they took many months to let most of it out. and it is a message to china and in some cases senior officials got involved, but they are willing to let this out with the
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secret nature of the strategy. if they had not done that, the book would not exist and we would fly to hong kong and moscow and i was not prepared to be like this and just say to the press as he allegedly did spending most of his life in prison because of it, look at all these kids. so i put together the evidence that i thought was secretiveness of the strategy. the interviews, some other materials, and i have submitted it and i think that the fact that it's been approved having been made public suggest that somebody wants to send a message to the chinese and we are not as clueless as you thought. at least some of us understand what you are up here. broad themes and the implementation is often quite unknown to the public and i saw
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the six defectors out in each chapter with a defector story. in each case they say something different from what you and i might believe is chinese strategy. but she tells us as she openly gets $2 million for doing this she says that this is a man that sings elvis presley songs in english. and she has a series of very wonderful and pleasing stories about the u.s. and china operation being unlimited and she has access to this. this is all quite wonderful and they have a different story to tell about chinese strategy and then one day she was arrested by the fbi for espionage and i tell
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her story in here. later on the fbi issues a couple of reports including how foolish they were to believe her and the fbi is not released the damage assessment report of what she actually has told the chinese and so i make an appeal at the end of the chapter in this includes chinese spies against america and that was clearly a victory for them. and we called upon to do that. another spy for china who was caught and admitted in court in alexandria in 1986 was found dead and he reportedly
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asphyxiated himself. so he said he had been doing it for 30 years and he was an employee of the cia. so that is another one for the chinese side. so in this story that i'm hoping to intrigue you to actually read the book i try to bring out secret aspects that implement these broad themes and how is that as an answer. do you think that that is dodging the question in a. >> i understand and i think the book dash i think that what the doctor is referring to is the secret implementation with this sort of copout plan and that is what he's talking about in the book. we have booked events here and
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we want you to read the book. >> we had a discussion last night at politics and prose and the chinese gentleman said well you know, this is not secret. he went a little bit further and said china really doesn't have a strategy at all, this is part of their very common talk. one individual has written an article in foreign affairs magazine. and he said china has no grand strategy. and so the opposite of what you are implying, everyone knows that they have that official chinese position, we are just doing the best we can and it certainly is not secret.
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and i hope that you read this section and help them have this secret strategy. >> right behind you. >> my question has more to do with how do you view foreign policymaking as a part of this decision-making process in terms of the institutional setup. they have an array of challenges that they have to face. you laid out this but they have a bigger plan, and we know that this is not in the top committee level, but there is no thing representing this policy, so how do you think that they will way this one policymaking two do think that they will way this agenda much more heavier than the foreign-policy agenda in a where do you think the regime is more inward looking than outward
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looking if you assume this to stay in power? and then policy plays a big role, do you think that many will be preventative of this, just like i can write a book on politics and they picked out this as well. >> if i understand your question, you want me to answer by saying that china is focused only in this way and has so many problems and only a few hawks are the tea party equivalents in china, that they only want to have as on policy. so this is basically wrong. so i would say no maybe not. they are all part and track kind
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of part of the idea of domestic policy. released 30 years or maybe longer has been what i said about tom sawyer and his friends painting the fence. to solve those problems we need help from the world outside. china needs peaceful security environment in which to flourish domestically and it's a little bit of a trip weston it's not foreign-policy, that is a junior topic in china compared to domestic issues, but for domestic issues this can only be solved with what two exports in the outside world. more foreign direct investments, 20 times more foreign direct investment from us than india, is that a natural thing? know, the chinese leaders have worked very hard to get american high-tech investment in china,
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that is one of their top goals for 30 years. so is that a foreign-policy idea or is it the master policy? well, we need to get the americans to whitewash and paint this. there is a whole series of things that the chinese leaders stayed in their speeches for what they have to get from the outside world and in some sense the outside world owes him because of what chris mentioned the century of bad treatment and humiliation. so the secret strategy in the 100 year marathon that the book is trying to explain is don't use american economies, the only way that we win this is going to be successful terms of trade and technology and goodwill, we have to get goodwill and this is a
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supreme on policy. >> we need to assume that they are classified exactly like us and that the structure is almost like a. >> yes, exactly. i love your opening comment, americans like to see if this is someone we should bomb or someone we should take lunch, we are the one that you should take to lunch. >> right here in the front. >> [inaudible] >> yes, sir, i noticed that you mentioned very briefly the senate inquiry back in 1990s knicks which uncovered an attempt by the chinese to
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directly influence the u.s. political process. it is much worse today than when we talk about secrecy or transparency, can you talk to us and expand on the idea that there's much more influence on congress and the american democratic process today then webber has been in a diplomatic way, we have talked about people on trips and etc. >> i have to be careful in this area because i don't want to slander people and say that you just say that because china has given a $100 million. that is considered below the belt in our political system. what i would rather say is praise a part of the chinese secret strategy which is really brilliant and i was quite stupid back in 1999. i had a chance to me with a beautiful woman in china and i didn't understand what she did.
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she had a big building, a staff of a thousand, and we had a long talk and she gave me some books and magazines and seven-point put the photo of online of my website "the hundred-year marathon".com. she is now the most powerful woman in china she's on the bureau and she's here recently to visit with hillary clinton she was something called the confucius institute, 350 of them in america and they offer money to universities to sign a contract and it's like what is wrong with that. and this has become quite a controversy in the newspapers of the world, what exactly is going on here stanford chicago, some
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of them are being kicked out. some are being kicked out of the universities because they have certain sensitivities. you cannot talk about the dalai lama. so when they teach chinese civilization, confucius was responsible for some great works. one is called the spring and autumn analysts. it's all about deception and trickery things are part of the 100 year marathon today. so if you go into this and say i would like to study this classic number five the one on the spring and autumn analysts, the one on the rise and fall of five hegemon's how you become a hegemon and no, that's not really part of the institute's
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program. so this is in the billions and billions, it's all over the world, we ran to the one in south africa recently. , having a huge kind of impact and this is focusing on the next generation not giving $100 million to an 80-year-old today, if looking at the next generation on college campuses. that's something that i admire. and so she actually lays it out to me in the meeting. i always have an embassy escort to make sure i don't say the wrong thing and so she actually laid this out in the meeting. the we feel we need better power around the world, can you help us, and i didn't fully grasp
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significant resources in the billions and billions of go into these programs, so this is only one of many programs. a very breathtaking operation that is chapter in the book called the message police and i try to express admiration for what they are doing. >> you say in the book from the 17th century to modern era researchers and others led to accept this fabricated account of chinese history. and they played down this as well. >> now he is looking way. >> he has work to do. >> hello, my question is about
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u.s. china relations in the context of party relations we talked about cybersecurity and the nuclear discussions that are going on as well as democratization that is taking place. i would like to talk about how you think that these are going to play out in the context. >> thank you for your question. hong kong and north korea, the chinese secret strategy for the hundred year marathon is not too upset with the americans. and so in both cases the chinese official position, we want to help you in north korea we oppose nuclear weapons on the
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peninsula even in south korea or north korea and we want to work with you americans in the talks were however we support the american goal. so that is very good news to the americans. in hong kong they say the worst thing that can happen is use of force on either side and that is good news as well. and so they say that china is going to implement this agreement with the british until 2047 two years before this and yes, they will have some light handed role previewing the candidate to be elected in hong kong not worry about this, they will still allow an election according to the rules. and so that is all they can do
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is rescue candidates to make sure they are okay before there is an election. and she has a new slogan called the new model of great power relations. in the new model the rising power is going to peacefully replace the old power and president obama you would think, would accept the new model including other policy issues, but actually president obama has not accepted the new model. and this caused a lot of concern in china. many say they will not accept the new model. this proves that the americans
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are out to get us to overthrow us, and to dismember us. president obama and his team have given a different explanation. they have said they he gave a speech saying overtime we need to try to develop this new model and the chinese say well no, we need to accept it now and we have spent a lot of time talking about it, we don't need to overtime recorded. susan rice gave a speech at georgetown and she said we need to operationalize and move towards new model. it's on our side we need to give lip service and public and yes the u.s. china relations are filled with cooperation and climate change and oh when you
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start examining the details, somehow ristow has nuclear weapons, somehow the election system did not get picked and we have a series of things that when you put the microscope into the agreement and i mentioned the and bilateral investment treaty, we don't quite have an agreement there. but for china this new model of great power relations not being accepted by president obama or secretary john kerry, many figures have said subtly that we need to move to the new model and this is one of the biggest single points of friction between the u.s. and china, trying to get an op-ed piece written imagine the debate in 2016, saying how do you stand on
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the power relations. no one has ever heard of it in the mainstream media. but in my humble opinion this is the key point of friction right now the u.s. and china and everything comes under that. and then the americans have not accepted the idea that china can peacefully rise like america did in england. the americans are still considering at least coercion against china and possibly the use of force. also the rebalance of warships and warplanes saying that we should focus our defense research and science on the pacific and india. >> you read about this which is another chapter.
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>> i hope that answers your question we met these two things are part of excepting the new model or not. >> thank you. two questions. >> first of all where does taiwan fit into the 100 year marathon strategy. and if you look at chinese history since 1949, many of the top leaders were actually brought down before they became top leaders. and some of the top leaders seem to have opposing strategies or policies.
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and that includes how the chairman handled his predecessors. how do you think the chinese were able to maintain the consistency of a 100 year strategy. how do they do that? the chinese do have a longer-term perspective than americans. but as previous question suggested, they only had this by a five-year plan for five years. so how do they talk about the consistency to . >> the chinese vision is that taiwan is on china's side and part of their secret strategy is to pull taiwan over to china's side. and the madam and who we talked
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about it was focused heavily on taiwan and they wanted the taiwan media and businessmen, of who there is almost a million now in china they want them to come over to china's side and they believe that it is a strategic mistake to alienate taiwan and their strategy in washington is very similar, they want them to sort of not be part of the conversation. so when we announced the rebalance of pacific asia there is no mention of taiwan. so your second question, the hawks in china, sometimes a candidate as you say goes down. the 100 year marathon strategy that i write about in detail has been debated and it is not a clear blueprint. there are power struggle is
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about to implement this strategy and its caused the death of a number of leaders. it is not a casual debate. [inaudible] and, you know the next year they said maybe this is 50 years and then they shortened it to tenures and he made a series of speeches, secret speeches. and by 58 he was saying just tenures we can surpass the americans. especially in steel production. and many people are going to die over that statement and no, we can't really do it in tenures. they get fired or they get killed. in the debate comes up again in
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1971. when they say -- they wanted kissinger at first but they wanted nixon as well. they kept saying that president nixon should come in doctor kissinger said obviously they mean an envoy in so that led to the death of roughly 10 chinese generals. and mao winks and says to nixon you know it is in the declassified documents and he said to nixon, some people didn't want you to come. don't worry about it. and he meant that he killed his top 10 generals to oppose this and to this day the mystery of this plane crash headed for the soviet union, the chinese narrative is that they are triggered they try to oppose nixon coming so they had a
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plane that ran out of gas and they all died. and others are put on trial later on. and so they have a whole different vision his wife and the others in the gang of four they have a different vision of how to do the hundred year marathon. they commit suicide in jail or spend life in prison so this is a life or death struggle how to do the 100 year marathon but nobody can say. if you want to stay in the party or the government, you can't say i want to surpass the united states i would be happy to be the small little brother forever. no, you cannot say that. you can't say that the dalai lama is a handsome guy and why can't we invite him to beijing and let him go back for a while. there's a whole series of bets.
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so you are alluding to these very bloody power struggle is that part of the chinese message. you are at the confucius institute in your learning chinese and you say what exactly happened to these generals who were killed with the gang of four and why can't the dalai lama come, no, that is not on the curriculum. and so we have these raising of the sensitive and embarrassing questions. this is part of china's greatest contribution to the human race. >> the final question right here in the front and then over to the back. we won't have time enough for everyone, but i'm sure michael will be here to sign books afterwards and so you can ask him questions in person.
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>> yes, in the context of your books and assumptions, how would this see as we openly talk about that and these proposals as to what china should do in the tenure. and you know we will talk about how russia sees china in this way given that they believe it is peaceful. >> in terms of the president's plan, he has been very clear. if he believes in reform and he had a new book out and it has a
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little picture in the middle. i actually read the book and it is about improving governance what he calls governance in china which is a world bank term. he wants to improve the efficiency of china the growth rate the free trade zone to do some experiments about foreign currency being easier to send back to companies, so the president is presenting himself as a reformer and an experimenter. some are willing to have this 100 year marathon go faster. so i see him as a guy that i first met and i have a picture of him. we have a very nice picture of him from 1980 and he came to the
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pentagon and he has been to the pentagon twice and the first time he didn't talk. and he put that photo in his book and he is proud of the old days he came to visit the pentagon. he is also quite friendly with the hocks. they seem to appreciate him and so it is a contradictory of two themes. that of a reformer, i want china to really go faster but i like the narrative that the hawks have been giving. that china's destiny is really something we should start to talk about. so he is changing what used to be the sacred strategy, everyone
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in washington knew this it means biter time nourish your of securities. what does that mean? well, it is the movie that i mentioned the fight club the first rule of the fight club is do not talk about fight club. it means don't talk about our long range strategies. so the president seems to be saying no, it's okay to start talking about 2049 and what the world is going to look like in 2049. and by the way, it is very good news. 2049 that world is going to be quite wonderful according to the president. and taiwan is really not part of the story. it is going to be brought over to china and not pose a problem
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anymore. >> the russians are having a very intensive debate in moscow and you can find this about china. i talk about a guy a lot in the book the person first talk about china, first in the united nations secretary of political affairs department on loan from the russian government having plenty of time on their hands and we talk about china. i saw him a few years ago with susan in moscow and he came to the seminar. and he said that i told you so. it emerged that there are pro-china and anti-china point of view and the pro-china view is that these guys are with us and the anti-china view is that there's too many undocumented chinese in siberia that are taking over all kinds of stuff
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they try too hard a bargain and it's not finalized yet. but the price is truly quite low so in the case of the ukraine and crimea we see a growing debate in moscow over what to do about china and i'm hoping that there will be a russian language edition of the 100 year marathon. the japanese lost the translation rights. >> that's good news for you. >> that's good news for me. [laughter] and the chinese have told me that your last book was published in china which is true with only one redaction. and we would like to publish this book in china. i have not yet heard from the russians and i hope that they would like to publish it.
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and i just checked amazon, this is number four on the amazon bestseller list. >> we have a gentleman over here and then we have a gentleman with a question at the very back as well. >> one of our greatest china experts here with guys asking me a question. >> pouring a hundred years china's main contact with the outside world was part of this. where did the neighbors fit in to this because after all quite a number of these individuals, some of them very important, are allies of the united states. wouldn't they just share their
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alliance with the united states when they see the magnificent of this? and making a further point, in my conversation with people in china. >> this includes main books about it. >> what comes across is ignorance of other countries. in many instances knowing a great deal about the and my impression is that many of those who have had a great deal of knowledge about the somehow have a lack of basic understanding as to how the united states works. neither the history or the political system seems to allow for an understanding of how democracy with all the contradictions and problems has lost a and how they work. >> i have good news for you
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professor the hudson institute center for chinese strategy is going to have a series of events potentially press conferences in which we are going to release translations of this that i think are important and that are not easily available. one of the first topics is going to be this kind of strategic writing about how well do they understand their neighbors and the united states as well. because i ain't you are essentially correct that there's a lot of misperceptions and don't forget that i'm saying that they are outsmarting us outfoxing us in some areas. i would seem to be saying that the chinese are really smart and they know everything about their
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neighbors and you are adding a sort of cautionary note they don't seem to really get it very well about their neighbors and i think that there is an area here and i hate to be a pollyanna but there's an area for further discussion with the chinese about their misconceptions about america. they say abraham lincoln began the containment policy and yes he was containing the south. [applause] >> they have similar views on india, that the indians are this and this, really wild stuff about india. and then there's a series of narratives about japan that are still there, they love blood and they can't wait for the next war, so when you visit the shrine this is like part of the program that


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