tv Key Capitol Hill Hearings CSPAN August 11, 2016 10:47am-12:48pm EDT
in a recent study from the national bureau of economic research actually backs up this idea that i this is not necessarily targeting those from the lower echelons of society, those from a lower socioeconomic strata. another study done by the eu found that out of 140 cases of so-called lone wolf terrorist attacks, actually only three of those were actual lone wolf. all of the others had some kind of contact with radical or extremist groups. we need to dig deeper into this loan will phenomena and explore pashtun global -- how is isis perhaps tapping into these long posts or do they start out as lone wolves but they have some contact with its virtual or face-to-face. i think look at the bangladesh
example, when this investigation move forward and we find out more and more i think that will help a lot in how we address isis globally. so the obama administration has been reluctant to talk about the ideological underpinnings of terrorism and the relationship between logical islam and terrorism. but i think counterterrorism efforts have to take into account this direct connection between islamist ideology and the attacks that often born of it. it would be impossible to uproot support for islamist extremist ideology unless we can talk about it candidly in our society and political environment. a recent study by the center on religion and geopolitics found that half of 100 violent jihadists that were surveyed initially came from nonviolent islamist groups. one in four came from the muslim brotherhood, or groups associated with the muslim
brotherhood. so we have to think of political islam as providing a fertile ground for extremist terrorist mindsets to grow and develop your at the same time outlawing large islamist political organizations like the muslim brotherhood or the jmb, or excluding them from the public processes of the country in which they are part of, that is not the answer either. so i think internationally we have to find a way to simultaneously counter islamist ideologies without driving the islamist parties underground. and at home we had to figure out how best to counter islamist radicalism without trampling on muslim civil liberties here in the u.s. here i would like to talk about a case, this was the report was published by the new york police department in 2007 call to
radicalization, the web, the homegrown threat and he became very controversy over and produced a backlash from the muslim community in new york who claimed that a try to justify racial profiling and aggressive surveillance of mosques or so eventually there was a lawsuit brought against the nypd and they took down the report from their website as part of the settlement with the muslim community. but i would also say that this report in some ways was ahead of its time. this was back in 2007 when it was talking about lone wolves and that some of the findings in the report we should pay attention to and not throw out the baby with the bathwater. what else can we do? so we heard a lot from captain martin about what our local law enforcement is doing, and i can't emphasize how important it is to develop relationships with the muslim communities, you know, that helps produce
intelligence on potential extremist networks, and just continue to keep the communication flow going. there is an inherent tension in this process and here i will point out an example from australia. many of you remember that december 2014 attack in sydney, australia, when a terrorist held hostages at a café in downtown sydney. one of his requests on the local law enforcement was to have an islamic state flag so part of the negotiating process they were trying to find an islamic state flag and they contacted some members of the muslim community and ask them, could you find an islamic state flag? it turns out after the attack was over, the next few days, law enforcement actually rated the homes of those people who the muslim kindred members have contacted to get an islamic state flag. obviously, that caused tension
between the commute is but also make ask ourselves, is a legitimate to worry about somebody who has an islamic state flag? i would say yes. second in terms of way forward, when it comes to countering radical messages, it is the private sector that has to lead the way. the government is just not credible when it comes to trying to counter radicalization messages your i think the recently announced department of homeland security program to provide 10 million in grants to private organizations who are working on counterradicalization and violent extremism. this is a step in the right direction. i also think the state department is moving in the right direction and it's adapting to what it engages in the ideological battle against extremism. previously a small office called the center for strategic counterterrorism communications in the state department had its diplomatic sort of directly
engage online with radicals and try to counter radical messaging, but it was known that their messages were coming from the state department. they had this state department moniker. so they figured out that was it wasn't working in achieving the objectives. now they've replaced the office with the office of global engagement which focuses on partnering with other nongovernmental groups and also other governments in developing counter messaging strategies rather than trying to direct to engage online. i also want to highlight the work of a nonprofit organization in the u.s. called the world organization for resource development and education, or worde. they are offered in montgomery county, maryland, which i've come to understand as a whole nother world from frederick county, but even though they're next to each other, but this
group is doing really stellar work in talking about youth radicalization with the muslim communities, you know, engaging, encouraging a lot of communication with other faith leaders, community groups, law enforcement. but they are a small group to what they are doing needs to be scaled up. i think they can serve as a model for other groups working in this space. i think also we have to consider about talking about radicalization in our schools. we see the children are going online, younger and younger. we see that terrorists even these lone wolves are getting younger and younger, teenagers in many cases. so i think it's not out of the question to start teaching about these things. if you think about it, the way that extremists prey on younger minds over the internet, is a
lot like sexual predators and how they pray on children online. i think we have to think about the problem in the same way. so in conclusion let me just say that homegrown terrorist plots and use requires both an understanding of the islamist extremist ideology that drives them, but also a recognition that the religion of islam itself is not responsible for the terrorism. it's rather tha the people who e acting in the name of the religion. this is important when we talk about upholding our values of religious freedom, and it's also important for practical measures in that we need to cooperate with the vast majority of american muslims who are peaceful and who are fighting the same fight as everyone else is. and i would just end by making a quick plug for the heritage foundation has on its website an interactive timeline of all of
the nearly 90 plots that have been uncovered over the last decade. each incident has the full details as part of this interactive timeline. so i think it might be very useful for those of you who are researching this issue. thank you very much. [applause] >> general gray, professor alexander, one of the key principles of economics is competitive advantage, and as i look at the panel i see my comparative advantage is i grew up in the middle east and to speak the language of isis and al-qaeda. by way of introduction i would like to make two comments. first for the linkage and
symbiotic relationship between the terrorist organizations and the social networks. social network including publication of the videos are the promoting or depicting acts of violence, have become the most important weapon in the hands of terrorist organizations in recruiting, training, indoctrinating, encouraging, directing and glorifying lone wolves terrorism. these organizations have become savvy in warfare. the war against them in the longer be limited to military action. second, 9/11 was perhaps the last of the most strategically well planned and operationally effectively executed acts of terrorism in modern history. where there have been many such
activities on such smaller scale since been called we are now beginning to witness smaller but more frequent operations carried out by lone wolves who may or may not be associated with terrorist organizations. in fact, today the "washington post" captured the change in an article on page one about the amateur attacks shift and i suspect the new strategy, leading terrorist organizations is to achieve maximum terrorism with minimum inputs of sources and manpower. hence, the rising importance of the role of the lone wolf. iowa mentioned briefly three terrorist acts, one in the u.s. anti-recent ones in europe, to underscore both the importance of social media and the role of the lone wolf. the first is the bombing on boston marathon in april 2013.
the second is attacked, the truck attacked in nice come at the third is the acts attack on train commute in germany. the last two were carried out in july 2016. a marathon bombing investigation has revealed that the two brothers involved in the carried out the bombing were inspired by al-qaeda magazine, ironically called inspire, which published an article in 2010, how to make a bomb in the kitchen of your mom. the article was found with the terrorists. following the bombing of al-qaeda, following the bombing, al-qaeda in the maven peninsula, it's one of the branches of al-qaeda, posted a special issue of the magazine, inspire, on the quote-unquote the blessed boston bombings. the magazine contained pages of
glory and praise of the brothers, but it hits it emotional crescenta on page 26 with a photo of the two brothers, of the martyr who was killed by the police against the background of heaven, scarf, designer sunglasses, and the clouds behind him. .. one brother or small number of brother, brother in arabic here refers to muslim brothers.
such tactics will bleed america economically by provoking it massive expenditures on security. i should also point out that the inspire magazine uses ideology as a clearing-house. a lone wolf terrorist, a french tunisian ran a truck into a large crowd. the islamic state also referred to isis or isil, daesh publishing electronic magazine. in an article addressed to isis fighters and i quote the english translation, now my brother, let us be honest with one other.
let me tell you the truth. there aren't many of us here but there are enough of us, we hope to chop off its head but we are in the belly of the beast, my brother. so if you want islam to be victorious, why would you want to come out of the beastand tear its fangs when you can tear out. since the nice attack on july 15th, supporters have posted dozens of banners gloating over the terror attack and threatening that isis will continue striking france until it conquers the country, raises
the flag eiffel tower and most notable landmark. the third case is germany, isis and new agency featuring a message by the perpetrator of the train attack recorded the day before the attack. isis claimed responsibility for that attack which was carried out by 17-year-old afghan refugee. the video identified the attacker as mohamed explaining how he planned to attack and while living in german soil. and vows to perpetrate and attack greater mag any constitute than that in france. the -- the social media is also used by the terrorist
organization to encourage action by lone wolfs, al-qaeda in the arabian peninsula published in july 19, 2016 on telegram channel, a piece that will inspire believers, at least 17 targets for lone wolf attacks in the upcoming 2016 super olympics. the post included a english-language schedule of events for olympic events. it claims lone wolf that is the travel to brazil is relatively cheap and easy. and i quote, lone wolfs from anywhere in the world can move to brazil now. visas and tickets and travel to brazil will be easy to get, god willing, end quote. suggestions for attacks
including --ing small explosives on toy drones perpetrating a knife attack against americans and israelis and entering bars and pubs in the area to attack, kidnap or rob drunk patrons. social media is also used to recruit volunteers for new initiatives. that's february 20, 2016 isis announced the creation of the islamic state scientists and engineers. its administrators stressed that members of the group must have a bsc, scientific or mathematical field such as equipment industry or aeronautics. now, what's the problem of the future? this is precisely the danger emanating from the lone wolfs that have become great concern
to agencies and with loan wolves in particular. races the serious question for the future which is how does one capture some sign of someone who has no contact with any organization, is just ib spired -- inspired and started expressing allegiance to a terrorist organization such as the islamic state. most have little or no communication with military groups that could not be intercepted by intelligence agencies. let me quickly make a difference, one comment, the difference between al-qaeda and the islamic state.
the al-qaeda from the very beginning was organized to attack western targets. isis by contrast is an organization determined to occupy territory and to introduce islamic sharia into those who are under its occupation. in keeping with the practice of prophet mohamed, isis demands that those who come under its control declare oath of allegiance to the head of the organization. now, what is the arab reaction
to all of this? most or and world has been concerned about the emergence of islamphobia. here i quote a saudi writer, he wrote an article on the crime of nice and the roots of terrorism. and i quote here contemporary terrorism is largely associated with islam. this is a fact. many nations and people during many stages of history have engaged in terrorism but at this moment of human history, the vast majority who practice terrorism are those who claim islam as their religion. and one more quotation from --
on the significance of education and duration between education and terrorism. in an article in london by palestinian writer he called on muslims to admit that terrorism perpetrated by muslims is, indeed, tied to islam. improve the phenomena -- [inaudible] >> we must first admit that education in our schools and mosques lay it is foundation for implicit isisism. it is the largest and most important source feeding, the
barbaric isisism that has managed to acquire weapons in large part of the implicit isisism that was not given a chance to express itself. finally, i will make one little comment and i will finish. glorification of the lone wolf, a person killed in the line of duty is considered a martyr. in february 2005, a suicide bomber detonated a car bomb in front of a recruiting station for soldiers and policemen in the city of hila, baghdad, the explosion killed 152 people and injured 120. the car bomb was the work of head of iraqi branch of al-qaeda, made a name for
>> general gray, professor alexander, i appreciate the opportunity to share some perspective here. also it's an honor to be on the panel, these distinguished individuals. in light of the backed that was set out by my colleagues, i thought it might be helpful to focus on a few different issues, one in particular trying to find these lone wolves in particular islamic state inspired in in the u.s. and also same thing as lone wolves here with vis-a-vis traditional crime or other political extremism.
so with the type of topics i'm going to be cover are manyfold dealing with the cases of isis inspired attacks here as professor flynn noted, the issue of lone wolf is complex in some cases, you're talking about a unitary, an individual, in some cases you have a kabal, lone wolves but generally speaking and speaking about the form and not the latter. we will talk about some of those issues as well. a couple of items. some of the poll, discoverable and these are methodologies can be utilized. there are eight signs of terrorism that in some cases people follow step by step whether it's lone wols or more complex, incidents we have
seepen missed signs, it's not monday morning quarterback but there are examples that some people that were monitored by law enforcement either here or abroad subsequently took attack. it's impossible to fine lone wolves all of the time. there are challenges of having so many radicals and according to one stat there are more than 10,000 radicals in france, obviously limited manpower and people can't be honored 24/7n. some cases they are using electronic braces as we saw one of the attacks yesterday at the church. also noted other mechanisms through use of leveraging traffic stops, noted before undercover agents, also leveraging community who
orienting police also reaching to private sector, nonprofit and leveraging as well international cooperation. so i was told i was an hour to speak. [laughter] >> i will just touch lightly on the different topics. as we saw the attack in orlando, omar mateen, again, by many counts he's a loan wolf, there's discrepancy of motive, he appeared not to be involved with any home -- homosexual activity and he called 9/11 taken attack on islamic state and he also referenced other individuals and other groups when he negotiated with law enforcement, but a lone-wolf attack.
there were also missigns or investigations of him by the fbi but there was inadequate evidence to prosecute. we will get to those issues as well. to 49 killed, more than 50 injured. then we have attack undertaken at the university of california, perpetrated college students, he undertook the attack, took a nice to a classroom step, several of his classmates and several others who was ultimately killed by police officer at the campus. he was radicalized online. so, again, we need to weigh the issue of whether someone declares that they're taking the attack on the ideology of x, y or z and obviously these folks, in many cases have conflicting issues, some cases perhaps mental challenges as well but we
can't discount when these folks say that they're undertaking attack on x or x ideology. again various background, socioeconomic backgrounds. the individual came from an affluent family. mr. archer had a criminal record. there's not one cookie-cutter by which you can say a lone wolf comes from this background. in some cases they come from affluent backgrounds as discussed. they don't operate in vacuum. their not phantoms. they have friends and family and articulate their animosity to their target, they're online or off-line which we will get to. they are active in the economic system.
they shop, they have credit cards, they purchase component parts for explosives or weapons and in some cases we will see later on the private sector comes across the folks and in some cases notes peculiarity. in one evidence they didn't have enough information about mateen, they were concerned about him buying large amount of ammunition and bullet-proof vest but they didn't get his name or phone number, they didn't get his license plate. so again law enforcement could only work with what content is provided by the private sector and others. the folks as well go to schools, attend recreationalcenters, religious institutions, we see the role of religious institutions are concerned about radicalization in their own community and reach out to law enforcement. we have seen several dozen cases
where the muslims here in the u.s. and we are concerned about operatives and you have sting operations or other meetings with the operative. they utilize encrypted technology so it's difficult to discern their activity. we have also seen that in some cases they have a real desire to articulate radical tenants. sometimes in a very nonsophisticated manner and only once they plan on attack, they are concerned or -- regarding their activity. the radicalization process occurs quickly but in some cases can take much longer. in some cases the lone wolves are not lone wolves.
they're impacted, if we are talking about the terrorist lone wolf they're impacted ideologically. so they may be lone wolf in terms of actor but the content that they're imbibing is coming from an outside actor. we know that some of the marginalization and some of the mental issues. in terms of offramp we can talk about later this notion of having mental health professionals becoming more involved in the cve process and that's helpful as well. and sometimes hiding or move preattack or post attack -- we will talk about the eight signs of terrorism as well. as some of our other colleagues noted about the active use of online materials by isis and other groups, disseminating 24/7
multiple languages, through different websites, different internet mentality, leveraging social media and other mechanisms that are difficult to discern. also modings for discovery. also a lot of content of different modes of radicalization, recruitment, what modus operandi they use. we have a couple of examples. one case in kansas, mr. booker, while he was in the u.s. military, reached out on facebook saying he wanted to become a martyr. then the fbi met with him and subsequently he interacted with informant and try today drive a van onto fort riley, kansas and commit a suicide bombing.
he also received 100 quote unquote lone from a man that he met at the mosque. his colleague knew that he was plan to go utilize the money to undertake the attack but he did not want to participate. again, the lone wolves are not completely singular. another incident, mr. suárez, he reached out online also through facebook, he invited different individuals to join the islamic state, a tip from a recipient to sheriff's deputy in florida and then they contacted jttf and he was arrested trying to place a explosive on a beach and kill dozens. so there are other opportunities for discovery. also offline, not only online and the offline are places where people become radicalized.
including in prisons, religious institutions also and investigation for traditional crimes, opportunities that come across individual that is may be undertaking atraditional crime in order to erase funds. and you may be aware of them. conducting surveillance, conducting surveillance vis-a-vis the target, gathering intelligence online or in person again to see what level of security exists. raising funds as was noted by some of the panelists, the barrier entry for some of the attacks are very low.
if you purchase a knife that's relatively inexpensive so the need to garner funds is quite low in contrast to the much more sophisticated attacks. then gathering supplies and then in some cases the individuals acting suspiciously either on their way to undertake the attacks as we saw with the nice attack or the individual did a dry run as well, he had the truck along the path of his attack and police interacted with him. he said he was going to distribute ice creme at the event but from what i recall they didn't check the back of the truck. so there are opportunities for law enforcement, public to interact with lone wolves. they're not phantoms. some cases you have the dry run as i noted, or the deployment of the assets. sometimes you get tips from security guards or the public.
we saw a suicide bombing a day or two ago where the security guard had interaction with the suicide bomber in germany and dissuaded him from entering the location. some of the signs, we talked about omar mateen. the fbi investigated both. same with the tsarnaev brothers. at the same time we are not blaming anyone but just to show that there are examples of some interaction with these perpetrators and given the thresholds that the law provides it's not possible in some cases to arrest or prosecute individuals. so the bledsoe case, he was a u.s.-based individual, radicalized while he was in yemen and came back to the u.s., met with the fbi, they monitored him for a period and he undertook attack in arkansas
2009 against an army recruiting station and incident in fort hood, you had two separate investigations by the fbi and also the dod regarding his radicalization while he was in the u.s. army he was interacting . so equivalent with being in the u.s. army and interacting with spokesperson or propagandist for the islamic state. then a few other examples here vis-a-vis the traffic stop. you have an individual who stopped in michigan. at the same time of this traffic stop, he actually had two undercover agents interacting with him regarding different plots during the traffic stop, the individual had a weapon as well as a marijuana. he is currently being detained and on some weapons charges. then in relation to calls for
service, you have mr. sullivan, his parents called 911 in relation to him trying to burn down the home and within about four weeks he interacted with informants in relation to taking the attack in north carolina. another example utilizing informants, mr. cornell, he planned to undertake attack against u.s. capitol. so again, while these folks may be marginalized economically they are not doing activities not in an island. then with reference to finding these folks, utilizing undercover agents, in many cases discover the hundred or so
individuals have been prosecuted in the past two and a half years in connection with isis activity. some of them have been discovered through online activity, at about 50% of the cases they had sting operation. in this case you had undercover agent interacting with mr. wolf. he was planning on joining the islamic state. some modalities. obviously leveraging the community and also allowing for opportunity to insert undercover agents. there is some tension on one hand reaching out to community and then concurrently targeting them but at least they approached as being utilized at this point. so also different cv programs
and there are a number that have been utilized here with mixed success. some amendment to offer offramps. so a few examples, he did two trips to syria, one in 2012, one in 2014 and provided different military supplies and other others to the islamic state. there was a tip saying that this guy was aggressive and finding adherence to the islamic state. the role of the private sector, as i noted before, the people are not phantom, they need to buy products and services again depending on the complexity of the plot. sometimes they try to acquire
large amounts of chemicals or they purchase weaponry or rent storage facilities. so there's now outreach as there has been in the past in relation to raise ago wareness by the private sector amongst the 2,000 business sectors including storage facilities and otherwise to report and provide guidance regarding some suspicious activities and purchases or appearance of the purchaser. so again not to have a hysteria but reaching out. ..
the had traveled to join islamic state. some have been killed there. some have tried to return here as well as the other some 30,000 plus foreign fighters, so there are opportunities for entities that are now focusing with greater attention on these challenges and their delegate-- databases regarding stolen weapons, passports, foreign fighters etc. that can be disseminated as well and also us law enforcement and different instrumentality in otherwise brought fbi and others providing
contacts and garnering information and leveraging it your home and internationally, so in conclusion, some of these folks can be found prior to these attacks, but some obviously can't for various reasons there's important role that the public sector can play in finding his lone wolves. propaganda and tools isis is inseminated .4/seven and multiple images in different media and videos in otherwise has been impactful both here and abroad. current-- currently there are about 900 isis investigations in the us, all 50 states and as was mentioned by some of my colleagues lone wolf in relation to terrorism or in terms of traditional crime or these folks have significant mental challenges to use the term quote
unquote loon. without i will take any questions or comments. thank you very much. [applause]. scenic in the interest of time we will develop a discussion and dialogue with the audience. as moderator let me try to mentioned 34 areas that i think if you mentioned one in terms of the terminology definition, if you will. i recall going on the way back to the 1970s and 80s, bus-- some of us wanted to make life simpler in terms, so we added
the three c. one, the crazies. number to the criminals and number three the crusaders. with the first two still with us, the crusaders we are looking obviously that's other religions and ideologies. so, the point i'm trying to make is when we talk about who are the perpetrators and number two, what is the motivation. what triggers individuals to resorted to violence in the name of some higher principles, whatever, and a thirdly all
range from primitive too much sophisticated. finally, the discussion about what kind of tools do we have as a society on the public level and at the private level to deal with that. some of you mentioned-- [inaudible] >> again, as a participant for many years, it seems to me that somehow we are not focusing on the role of the media in terms of trying to classify and to deal with that, but because even going back 50 years or 60 years as i recall we still have a problem when the media uses interchangeably different to terms and concepts all the way
from fighters to commando, soldier or perpetrator and so on. the same goes now to the question of the lone wolf. we don't have time to provide a long list. events unless offenders are going to eponymous terrorism and so on. so, it seems to me that because the public and policymakers influenced a great deal by the media, so the question is, can we provide a bridge between the media and the law enforcement and the public in general and so on to provide some clarity? when we dealing with? so, what i'm really asking is to
some of the other issues. >> i would say that yeah, that was one of the reasons why try to provide some type of definition right at beginning of portion of the presentation was just because literally playing from the same sheet of music is so important in having informed discussions because terms that mean one thing to me might mean something different to someone who's working on the field. so common terms of heaven apples -- having apples to apples discussion, i don't have like eight specific preference on terminology, but whenever i do hear something like i think one of the examples i had given was about we use its use of lycée wolf actor or lone wolf terrace. now, we have added-- or the
media at least has added the caveat isis inspired, so it's at least we know it's not an individual grudge that the person might have, but that it is coming from some other source and social media or publication of the acts that take place around the world are influencing things that take place here in our backyard. >> it's interesting is when you said the media i initially jumped into my mind, not the issue of the different uses of different terminology, but rather watch world of the media play in exacerbating this problem. we see again, through this use of social media to broadcast their intentions and in real time during the act. sort of a desire among these
people to publicize what they're doing to achieve a some kind of fame and is the media plane into that by publicizing these so greatly. of course, nowadays the media isn't the monolithic thing. it's much more about democracy today with social media because anyone can contribute to the discussion. fortunately, every time you see trending at the top of your screen it's usually the extremes that people pay attention to, which again feeds this generation of more publicity for these type of offenders. on the terminology, i think, terminology is import for a couple of reasons. one, gives you a framework for analyzing and studying the different type of actors who could also in the law enforcement world, laws are based on certain terminology, so it can it's important for that reason.
>> i would just highlight what carol has said he focused on. social media, when we talk about media and she talked about this real-time posting of photos as attacks are ongoing. this is exactly what happened in bangladesh. of a posted pictures of the people that they had just killed and in fact, i know of people who identified friends that have been killed by the pictures on social media that they saw on before the authorities had gotten in touch with anyone. so, we submit underway to prevent the terrorists from being able to highlight what they're doing and to glorify what they are doing through social media. i know there's a group called the counter extremism project, which i know fran thompson is involved in and others. they focus on this issue of calling out twitter, facebook,
instagram sort of naming and shaming. is brought to their attention, things that need to be taken down on dealt with and if they don't do it through pointing that out, so i think we do need to have this dialogue and i think you are correct, think the private sector can play a role in bringing the company leaders together with the government and other experts to the route how we can prevent terrorists from exploiting social media. >> memory has a large portfolio of reports and videos on terrorism and jihad -ism if anyone is interested. i just want to make one comment about professor alexander's 3c.
this is the term used by terrorist organization to designate christian countries. the state crusader. would say terrorist is a crusader. >> absolutely. there is the question. the point is now how they tried to develop the conflict of war between civilizations and that's really major challenge that we are facing and particularly after this attack yesterday in france, at a church. we can see exactly what it can lead to. [inaudible] spirit with social media we see
a trend of location and lawsuits against twitter, facebook and other entities that are disseminating some this content and yet civil suits, but they are utilizing the statute same by disseminating this content and allowing the content to bid disseminated that they are providing support and as such they should be held liable. so, that's also an emerging as you. >> professor wallace, at this point any comments? >> and what to think his son being for extremely rich presentation. several observations. i'm income trying to guess what you think and this is an overwhelming set of phenomenon. overwhelming set up phenomenon.
wouldn't notice, i think most of the discussion comes after the fact. these are post analyses study. the question is what can you do in advance. coming is conceivable we will not be a will to deal with everything in advance. are there any sort of solutions, conduct my wife and kids would ask and what i ask. i never liked mr. snowden because i think intelligence, surveillance of the nsa with all the dangers seems to be indispensable. i think another thing is if you see something, say something. this has come up before in our program. i think this goes to the heart of the matter because it goes to us, our society. are we prepared to change our behaviors in such a way that we will snitch more as we call it snitching. the truth of the matter is it has annoyed my wife and i say this, many of these people and they are very different types. summer radicalized and some are
not caught up in ideological motivation they just kind of pick it it and many come from muslim communities, but not many do. usually there's a parent who knows, a brother who knows or a sister did they think is bad form to talk. or in our culture we are sympathetic to people with problems. i mean, i'm anything but a trappist, i can assure you. in fact, i dislike him intensely, but his approach is you can get on top of these programs by getting tough and getting organized, but that goes -- goes against the nature of our society. i think dean had a lot of data, but it's really post talk, after the fact. the french say they are 10000 suspects in france and the follow them all. i made some numbers. when an half-billion of people on earth are muslims and we are talking about muslims quite often. there are 10 million muslim adults who might be in or
outside the range of suspects. there's no way unless we change our society profoundly. another answer might be stoicism , being tough and sucking it is-- sucking it in. i'm afraid that is also part of it. i mean, our culture is really a milling waiting to be ripped apart and we are lucky and it has not happened yet and i really wonder. i admire general gray enormously with a can-do attitude. of believing can do. use the word warfare before. this is very strange war. may be worse by the right term to use. there is a definitional issue. we now learn what does lone wolf mean. basely those categories are not going to capture this dean, i think, has played out almost all the factors, but they're mostly after-the-fact, so the question
is can we move forward will-- with purpose and determination realizing we will not catch all of these guys. we will not change our society to become a all-purpose solidified police state. i think we will have to live with some of this even though we get better with what will come down the road. hope that's not my attitude. i'd rather be an optimist and not think the worst will come. kept on the power of denial and not focus on all of this. you shouldn't focus on your problems. focus on your possibilities, but i think this is really-- you have set up a very difficult challenge. eating your son will not solve completely. >> would like to open up the discussion and dialogue and get the audience involved. we would appreciate, number one if you identify yourself for the
record. incidentally, we are grateful to c-span for covering our event to bring into a wider audience in the united states and abroad. secondly, please ask a brief question and not make another speech. i would like to develop that and then we woke have another chance to respond to that. yes, please. >> i am norman senior. when question i have not understood is why there has not been a speeding up of these attacks? if you take after 2011, a lot of the material that was put out on encouraging was more systematic, instructions and how to do it.
granite most of it was in arabic and french, but you see this not only in the us ramping up in speeding up, but you see it in saudi arabia today. many more long wolf attacks. by now? it's not as if there was no encouragement or direction, no instruction before. it was everywhere after 911. you can't find as much now. very little. >> i think one answer to that is the pressure that isis is under in its strongholds in iraq. i think that may be contributing they may be calling out and looking to people overseas to conduct attacks.
before the us and iraqi forces were really going after their stronghold they seemed content to be building these islamic caliphate's there, so i think it's a contributor and secondly, i would just think you probably have the issue of copycats and that's probably what we've seen over the last few weeks is copycat type of activity. >> i would agree with all of that and add one other thing. as isis loses actual territory, their caliphate is becoming more of a virtual caliphate, online. >> i mean, we would the two speakers as isis loses territory they are expanding their activities overseas. i think we should look at two other factors as to why terrorism is expanding so
rapidly in the middle east. one, it's political and the other is economic. politically, 17 arab governments have no political legitimacy. no political legitimacy. they are either disintegrating states or states under dictatorial regime. economically 30 to 40% between ages of 15 and 24 according to figures of the national labor organization are employed in likely to them be employed anytime during their lifetime. there is nothing for them to lose except to make sacrifices. >> next question. doctor murphy, right here. >> this is a little bit broader
than just a lone wolf, but i mentioned to a couple of you before that i have been watching ever since september 11, for a pro- american or antiterrorist rally by american muslims and i have yet to hear of a single one if they would organize something like that i think it would do a lot to diffuse-- i also suspect some of the muslim leaders are worried about being taken out by isis is a trite anything like that. same sort of thing. if not a rally-- >> i cannot speak about american muslims, but if you read the arabic papers you find numerous articles on a daily basis disassociating the regimes from terrorism, condemning the act of terrorism and concern about the rise of islam phobia and how it
will affect the nations between the arab countries and the western countries fear. >> anyone else? there in the back. >> thanks to. committee and eastern europe, russia nato. i have heard from several people dissatisfaction with the term lone wolf, partly because it glorifies them as well as and also because there is the word alone in his general gray pointed out these are not lone people. the ones we are concerned with are not the loons, but the shared ideology and shared loyalty to some islam a store terrorist movement it seems to me we are talking about self organizing isis adherence or self organizing islamist terrorists or some variation on that and i wondered if all of the several people who are dissatisfied with the term lone
wolf would get together and come up with a better terminology that does not divert us and minimize the issue and at the same time doesn't distort the issue. >> i would like to take a stab at that. not so much on the terminology of lone wolf. i will defer to anyone else who wants to come up with that, but in terms of how we looked at lone wolfwe said yes, they must have an ideology and political objective, but it is not necessarily have to be anyone else's. ted conservancy, the unabomber we would call him lone wolf terrorism. yet a political agenda and operated alone. he used violence to try to further his objective. in norway, again he had his own -- he's the one who mounted a shooting attack against the student camp-- a summer camp. he had his own individualized theology, but he had a political
objective. so, just want to distinguish between some these lone wolves that do have their own individual ideology, others have borrowed isis ideology or white supremacist ideology or an antiabortion ideology. it just depends. >> your basically talking about single issue politics. again, doctor alexander tried to point out it's not only the religious inspiration or direction, but also the antigovernment. let's say population of ideology or the racist or say right-wing and so on. so, it is a broad, i think, spectrum of trigger points that
encourage people to rise up and the copycats as you mentioned before is one of them. let's move on to win more i found the back. you have a question. >> hello. paul cyrus. at his way to quickly respond to the claim that there have been no muslim community rallies that our antiterrorism rally's. there was one held in london yesterday or today and there are quite a few articles and i just pulled up a "washington post" article from december 7, 2015, with a rally in washington. just to provide a response to that. >> right there.
>> deputy chief from bangladesh. if i'm allowed to make a brief command, sir. >> why don't you come up to the podium for a second. >> that's a unique honor. thank you. i have a bit of difference with regard to the analogy particularly when we say foreign fighters. the word fighter are not at all comfortable with fighters x positive word. mega-- earned its independence through a war of liberation. we call them freedom fighters. i do not call a terrorist a fighter. these are isis terrace, al qaeda
terrorists or for any organization whether it's any terrorists. my very good friend read what happened in bangladesh and it is certainly unprecedented, particularly the attack in the restaurant on the first of july. the weight immediately the photographs went to the social media. what social media practice particularly by these elements is certainly not a democracy. it's them crazy, so we would need to look at that globally. i would not use the word control , but manner. if i may cite an example.
what do we do to prevent if i understand you currently, sir, post event analysis can put any length, any with, any depth. four had what could be done? certain things we perhaps need to look at. not a very impressive figure. in some it's even up to 60% of the illiterate. literacy is 40%. 20-- 22% of the global population being muslim, basically 5% of the gdp, so there are figures that we perhaps need to look at carefully and analyze beforehand. ..
the very inception. that is a reality. we need to reckon with and to how to address that, i think we need to do a lot of research but a very, very valid point by professor wallace. we certainly need to do the research. how to prevent this before it increases. let invest our resources more into that. muslim brotherhood and jamah is law mia, i beg to differ with the notion they are actually political body. they are not political bodies. they're terrorist organizations that must not be confused as political bodies. if we continue to allow the public political space to be used and utilized by these platforms, we know what is going to ha.
islamayiah in binge la -- bangladesh, garners 4%. i would be last to see that entity going to what other organizations like muslim brotherhood did in other countries. that is not good. a terrorist organizations must be branded as a terrorist organization. there is a fear a narrative, that if those organizations are banned legally, they would go underground and perhaps create more offshoots and create havoc in the society. i think we really don't have the time to discuss that at length. i will be very happy to be asked by any members of the audience and distinguished panelists.
i can sus that privately, informally but i do not simply buy that, that narrative. i have won question for the panel. anybody can enlighten me, sir what i've seem particularly in bangladesh, rightly pointed out, most of these terrorists were from wealthy families, wealthy backgrounds, educated not only in the madrassas where the poor segment of the society or parents send their children. they were in private schools. english speaking schools. they went to private universities. one even studied abroad and this is something new that we all encountered.
it is not only in bangladesh but also happening in other parts of the world. why this radicalization is attracting those young, bright, affluently, bright, well-educated muslim youths? any thought on that? thank you. >> thank you. >> we're taking a long time to -- [applause] >> this i will certainly, your question deserves a special seminar and we are not going to go into it to except to say, i mentioned before, before me, as we know from history, nothing is new. i think the concept that if we
only eradicate poverty then we eliminate terrorism and we have the examples of going all the way to in the background of the affluence, those who became involved and became later, and there are many political and sociological and psychological reasons for that but, i really think, that the keys is that we have to expect the unexpected from both the lower echelon of the community to the upper echelon of the community and, you know, therefore we shouldn't be surprised again by the surprises and, when professor wallace indicated that clearly we have to try to prevent, we
learned the lessons of the law enforcement and the intelligence community. we just had an event here last month on sharing intelligence and so on. so, it is not that we surrender and we don't have some of the all tentatives and some of the responses. so again academically, i think you are absolutely right. we have to go into that, but again, in the interests of the time, we have to conclude the so-called, we're running much further than academic, you know hour and we're going to ask now general gray to have -- [inaudible] >> why me? >> i mean, you are the end, that's why. >> i want to thank the panel and also the audience as well.
there has been a set of super discussions and viewpoints and the like. i couldn't help think that cultures are really important here and, i think we have to understand the cultures of america and the free world as we know it today and the democratic environment and related governments alike and cultures that we have grown up with. and understand very clearly that there are other cultures out there which are maybe equally important, and certainly different. we will never get the first base in this entire challenge without understanding the cultures of the arabic cultures, cultures of the middle east, cultures around the world and and languages they speak. i will give you a specific example. it is strongly difficult if you're intercepting or listening
to social media conversations by terrorist activities, and by people from, that are affiliated with daesh or isis, call it what you want. no matter how great a linguist you were you can't really understand what they're talking about unless you understand their cultures. the words are different, the languages are different, the meanings are different. and, what i call the generation of people that doing this for the most part are totally different. i happen to be a big optimist and proponent of the younger generation. i think they're good. i think they're smart. i think they're quick. i think we better start listening to them a little bit. we better understand how they learn and how they do things and how they believe. this is a whole new educational environment and old guys like me ought to stay out of it because we don't understand. my old commodore computer
doesn't even hear social media. the we have to get smarter about this type of thing. we need to understand, america in particular, we grew up, we like to be risk-averse. we like to get rid of all uncertainty. that is ludicrous. you're in a uncertain world and you will be in a uncertain world and you better learn how to operate in chaos and make uncertainty your friend. you need to also understand, one of the first things you have to do strategically is identify the enemy. the enemy is enlightened to get with it. this business of dancing around this topic is really ridiculous. the sooner we get over this kick and decide to determine who these enemies are and what they're all about and how they think and what they're trying to do, and begin to strategize corporately andcompletely, with adaptive techniques and the like
we are not going to make much progress. we have to get our act together here too. you have to know the enemy and know how he thinks. that is how you defeat him. we are still neophytes in the information warfare arena. we have got to learn to harness information, and use information. so this whole, you may be talking today about lone wolf type of things but the whole environment is here. information warfare, cyber attacks, all of these kinds of things are critical today. and it is part of the whole maneuvered thought process we have to include in this thinking and the like. so we've got a lot to do here. and we, we don't have to do it alone. we have allies. we have friends. and the other thing is, the american public, for example, since this is an american seminar today, for the most part, but the american public needs to learn how to play the what-if game. we need to get street smart. i remember, i used to tell my
marines years ago in the guerrilla warfare environment and like, we need to get street smart. we need to start thinking about things. it is marines that came from the east side of chicago that were always playing what if game, one eye, we're the cops. they never stepped on any booby-traps and bombs. the people who triggered the booby-traps and bombs in combat experience were from nebraska, five foot 10, blonde, had letters in football and baseball. the street smart guys, they didn't do that. what i was trying to get across to them, learn to play the what-if game, you get street smart. the business of seeing and talking, makes a lot of sense. we have got to be, we have got to be much more observant and do much more along these lines. with that i think we'll wrap it up today. thank you, yonah, and the panel
field. starting off with richard engle, his book, then all hell broke loose, two decades in the middle east. at 8:45, david denby, and his book, lit up, one reporter, three schools, 24 books that can change lives. past 9:30, sebastian younger on tribe. at 10:25, a panel on covering war. all of this tonight on booktv in prime time beginning at 8:00 eastern on c-span 2. coming up this afternoon we'll bring you a forum combating the zika virus. dr. anthony fauci from the national institute of allergy and infectious diseases will be among those giving an update on the state of play for the virus in the u.s. it is hosted by the alliance for health reform. live coverage begins at 1:00 p.m. eastern. until then a segment from today's "washington journal and
u.s. job growth, wages and prices. how the bureau of labor statistics calculates these statistics, how the economy fared over the decades and campaign policy ideas to increase job growth, reverse wage stagnation and growth between earnings and inflation. >> host: we are back, roundtable discussion about the state of the american economy. we have with us, dr. erica groshen, the commissioner for the bureau of labor statistics. this is the agency that tells us what a jobless rate is at the top of the month and what goes on with our economy. also jim tankersley, economic correspondent with the "washington post" to take your policy questions here this morning. i want to tell you first how we're dividing lines. d you can call in right away. under 24,000, 202-748-8 had you thousand. if you make between 25 and 50,000, 202-748.
-2001. over 50,000. 280 of it 748-2002. begin with the latest on the employment rate. july unemployment rate was 4.9%. this is still above prerecession low point but still unchanged in july. why? what is happening in our economy? >> guest: we're continuing to recover from the longest, t deepest recession since the great depression. this month, our numbers were really quite robust. we were able to absorb all entry into the labor market. we had job growth commensurate with population growth.. so, it was a good month in that sense. >> host: when you look at this number, who are you including and who are you not including in that number? >> guest: the unemployment rate is defined as the share of labo force that is, that is actively
looking for work, that does not have a job, is ready to work, and has looked for work within the past four weeks. now, so that defines what the unemployment rate is. in addition to the people who are in the labor force, there are people out of the labor force. so those folks are people who are in school, who are retired, who have family responsibilities , maybe disabled, something like that. so those are the folks who are of the age where they could be working but are not working. >> host: dr. groshen, 4.9% historically how does that compare? >> that is quite a low rate. we, at the height of this past recession, the unemployment rate was 10%. so it is less than half of the rate that we had at the height of the last recession. it has come down dramatically. >> host: jim tankersley, does it feel like it has come down
dramatically in the economy out there for americans? >> guest: yeah it does. not for everyone. this is always the caveat. 5% actively looking for work can't find it are real people struggling. they are the stats tell us not making as much as they like to be, making as much as they like to be, earning as much as they like to be, compared to where we were a few years ago, let alone in the end of the recession, much better economy. we're seeing some wage growth across the economy which we'll chat about. but also it is important to note that the economy isn't uniform across the country for everyone. so in some patches of the economy, some regions, it is still very bad. in some, like the big metro areas, big cities, big dynamic places like silicon valley, it feels great and booming. it is those sorts of differences we have to pay attention to underneath the very important results we get from the headline
number. >> host: jim tankersley what brought the number down from high of 10 to 4.9%? >> guest: time and healing in the economy. we had a financial crisis very disruptive to business and homeowners in particular and there was a lot of people, who were underwater on their homes. a lot struggling to spend moneyu because people pull back during a recession. you're afraid, you're in debt, and so you just dig yourself out of the hole and over time you are out of it. many people get out of the hole. they spend more again. spend more money, more economic activity that happens. government policies economist was tell us helped with the recovery. the president's stimulus package, probably helped accelerate the recovery at beginning of it. there have been other things done since then that probably helped stimulate the economy. i think, maybe the most important thing is the federal reserve has kept interest rates
very low, which is an attempt to stimulate economic activity. and compared to the rest of the developed world, our monetaryhe policy appears to have been muce more effective stimulating growth and employment. so we can thing the fed i think for a decent amount of the speed of the recovery we've seen host host host -- >> host: couple of callers out there. you're making over $50,000 a greer. good morning to you you. what is your question or comment about the economy? >> caller: we made a consciousfo effort to live below our means. no dishwasher. my wife has only one dishwasher, that is me. we've been married 40 years. we're on a second sofa. we're not living large compare what i saw last saturday canvassing with the candidates. most abject poverty you can 40% census track poverty rate. the big myth they don't want to work. i hear that all the time. they can't get to a job.
these people could not get public transit. only way they can get to work if they can walk to a fast-food restaurant. and a lot of them also have health and mental health issues. i saw wheelchair ramps at many homes with signs on doors that said, in case of health, this is the person to call. it was depressing, and i didn't find any that were students. thought we would find a lot. it is multigenerational poverty i don't see anybody looking ath: it. >> host: erica groshen, do you have any thoughts of data that resemble what he is talking about there? >> guest: we do have -- let me step back to the unemployment rate generally. that, that one number is a goodt summary statistic, camera bring internationally and historically to numbers we produced in the 1940s. so the official unemployment
rate has those virtues but one number is never going to tell you about the state of theat entire labor market can, right? so jim's point was very well-taken, that, when we put out a release, actually we don't put out just two numbers. we put out thousands of numbers and two are the headline numbers. so what the caller is talking about, to some extent are discouraged workers. we can't the number of discouraged workers. they are not in the labor force because they haven't looked for work in the past month because they're disgorged, right? that number has come down dramatically since the end of the recession but it is not all the way down to where it was before. it is still about 200,000 people above where it was before. so that's a pocket of slack in the labor market that hasn't completely gone away. >> host: how many people are we talking about total? >> guest: 200,000, out of -- 600,000 total. we have 600,000 people in the country who have given up
looking for work. >> host: that number has come down. >> guest: used to be double that at height of the recession. we're down to about 600,000. before the recession it was about the 400,000. so still 50% above where it used to be. >> host: jim tankersley, what are you thoughts from hearing from the caller? >> guest: one of the things the caller touched on that is really important the idea that people,p for some reason or another blocked from getting to the employment opportunities that they would like to have. he mentioned a very local one which i think is very importanta you literally can't drive or get a bus to a job that could employ you, this is what i was saying about the regional economies.ar there are more opportunities in countries than in others. sometimes probably in people's best interests to move. a lot of reasons they don't. so that is another reason why the overall unemployment rate comes down after, because we don't have as much mobility
across the country as we might look for an optimum sort of amount of employment ideally. people would follow the jobs. they don't always do that for very good reasons. that is just a function or feature of the economy we haveev now. >> guest: i would throw in also our job at bls is to count people and characterize the situation, there are other parts of the department of labor focused on getting help to people and so i would encourage people to look at the services offered by the employment training administration in theim local area, that might, that might help relief these problems. >> host: ken is next in maryland. ken, good morning to you. >> caller: good morning, greta, thanks for taking my call. my comment was i think the american people focus a lot on unemployment numbers because it is intuitive to them. they know whether they're getting up going to work every day. they know whether neighbors have income coming in from jobs.
it is something they see and real to them every day but i think dr. groshen referred to other numbers probably as important. what i wanted to really ask about was the headline in the "wall street journal" yesterday that talked about historical lows in productivity. you know your output given input and how poor productivity numbers are. my way of thinking you could have 100% employment but if the productivity is not there, that is just not stannable combination. so i think there is too much focus on unemployment number and not enough on productivity. just wanted to make that comment this morning. >> host: okay, dr. groshen do you have some thoughts on that? >> guest: one thing i want to point out, productivity growth has slowed, not productivity. well, i guess last number was negative. slightly negative. but it is we're still one of the
most productive countries in the world, but, but certainly underlying improvements in people's standard of living is productivity growth. and that's one of the reasonss that so important for us to measure it and measure it well. >> host: what is behind that, jim tankersley? >> guest: there is big mystery. there are a lot of competing theories out there. the mechanics of it we have low economic growth relative to what we had historically but still pretty good job creation what we've had historically. we're hiring a lot of people to create, you know, a relatively low amount of output growth, and that is just sort of the math ends up being you don't have as much output per person growth in that. now why that is, whether technology is not integrating way we hoped it would to make workers more productive, whether there is some theories that this grand, slowdown in the productivity of the economy because we've taken all of the low-hanging fruit of like the
gains of technology. whether it's that we are struggling in an environment where investment is not finding the most productive channels. there is lots of possibilities. economists are debating about it right now. i think it is one of the really important mysteries of the american economy today. >> host: for our viewers who have questions about the economy, or just want to let us know what it is like where you live, this is how we're dividing lines. under 235,000, 202-748-8,000. 20 and 50,000. call in at 202-748-2001. over 50,000, 202-748-2002. i want to show the viewers, nex0 statistics, from bureau of labor statistics, pace of job growthwt slightly lower in 2015. what are we looking at here, dr. groshen? guest before the what we're looking at here, results from our payroll survey. the last numbers we showed you
have unemployment rates. to get an unemployment rate you have to talk to households, you have to talk to families to find out how everybody in the family is doing.d so we have a survey of 60,000 households we talk to every month to create that. at the same time, we have a totally separate survey we talk to firms and we ask them how many people are on your payrolls. and with that one we can cover 1/3 of the workforce, actually. sew, that's a very robust survey, over 500,000 work sites that are covered and they tell us how many people were on the payroll that includes on their payrolls for the period that includes the 12th of the month. so that is the background of household and payroll survey. last month the number came in at quite robust 255,000 new jobs. and, so that brings, that brought up the average for 2016 to 186,000, but that is still
below what we were seeing in 2015. that may not be too surprisingse given that we're getting to, we're getting closer and closer to full employment. so if you're climbing a mountain, once you get to, closer to the top your pace of recovery slows. also means the opportunity maybe reduce some of the slack in other ways, so move people from part-time to full-time jobs. move people, put some pressure on employers to raise wages. so some ways it is a necessary condition for other parts of recovery in the labor market.gu >> host: jim tankersley. >> guest: when economists talk about full employment, not that everybody is working' basically idea of optimum level of employment in the economy and last time we saw really strong wage growth in the american economy, which is the mid to m late 1990s, it was largely because we had full employment.t low unemployment rates, strongoy job growth and everybody's wages
went up. er and so there is a lot of economists who really believe that staying at this level, staying at full employment for sustained amount of time is the key to getting middle class incomes, lower wage incomes, everyone's incomes up over time. so i would say, if what we'rear seeing here is slight slowdown approaching full employment that is really good sign for the american worker. again it would feel a little better for everyone if growth were higher but there are other headwinds happening in the global economy too might be in part slowing down job growth but overall the hope of low unemployment rate and nearing of full employment that we'reng starting to see that more benefits everyone recovery, is strong and, i think the kind of hope that workers are maybe starting a little bit to feel in their own minds, although certainly not everybody. >> host: next call from matthew in maryland.
good morning to you, matthew. go ahead. >> caller: good morning. i am full-time student and part-time worker. i have a comment and a question. i was just looking at an article that says, a record 94.8 million americans are not in the labor force in may. 664,000 more than in april. and labor force participation dropped .2 of a point to 62.6%. my question is, what 100 million americans doing if they're not working, and also, is this economy is going to recover, why does our national debt continue to increase? thank you. what >> host: dr. groshen. >> guest: so what are people out of the labor force doing? many of them, like you, are in
school but not working. so you're working. so you're in the labor force. but for those folks who are in school, not working that's an important part of what is going on. we're seeing actually that fewer students are now working than used to in previous years. so that's some part of the decline in participation, is that our young people are sayin in school, longer, less likely to work while in school. they're focused on their school work. the other trends that we have, are that we are, the baby boomers, who are a huge demographic bulge are now retiring. and as we reach retirement age, then a, that is includes me, my siblings and my friends are starting to retire, that means that larger share of our population is going to be retired. p so, that's a very important part of the demographic. story that underlies the
increase of, decrease in labor force participation. although actually in the last month, we saw a tick up in labor force participation. it has been pretty flat now for about a year, which is better than the declining pattern that we were seeing before but it wriggle around month to month. >> host: jim tankersley, what does that mean for policymakers what dr. groshen was talk about with baby boomers leaving? >> guest: baby boomers means a lot of things. we have coming pressures should be entitlement programs, social safety net, social security, medicare. that is gets to the caller's point about debt. debt levels are increasing because we have increasing liabilities on social insurance programs.il washington has not found way, not found it desirable in a consensus sort of way to reduce the debt levels by spending less than they bring in. but i would also point out that one of the things that thisof
exodus of people from the labor force from retirement does, gives politicians a very misleading talking point. at least, at least one major candidate out there right now, it is trump campaign, likes to hold up this number of americans out of the labor force as a sign of something bad with the economy. now, there are plenty of signs in this data the economy is not as good or it should be but that is probably not one of them, at least not nearly to the degree they're talking about. yes, there are people who are sidelined who are not working who by all other indications in previous economies in the united states would have been working, should have been working, and there are very concerning things about labor force participation but idea that 95 million americans aren't working, should get them all back in, means everyone in senior center, everyone in a school should be somehow working and that's crazy. that is misleading way to talk about economic statistics. it is a way to get people fired up but not reflective of
realities of american workforce. >> host: i want to show our viewers had to say at the detroit economic club about the numbers and calling into question their validity. take a look. >> we have the lowest labor force participation rates in four decades. 58% of the african-american youth are either outside of the labor force, or not employed. one in five american households do not have a single member in the labor force, not a single member of a household. these are real unemployment numbers. the 5% figure is one of the biggest hoaxes in american modern politics.rican [applause] let >> host: dr. groshen? >> guest: let me start by telling you a little bit about the bureau of labor statistics.
the bls is strictly non-partisan and apolitical. our job is to provide the facts and only the facts which is why i'm happy to have jim tankersley join me here today to deal with the things that are on the policy side rather than the facts. all right. our turf is the labor market and the economy, prices, working conditions. we have about 2500 employees across the country that are highly-trained, professional, career economists, statisticians, i.t. professionals, basically a bunch of data nerds out there, totally dedicated to counting what is going on so that policymakers, businesses, and families cano make the best possible decisions. and that's what our nation needs if we're going to have robust growth because we need for everybody to be able to make good decisions.
that's what is going to bring us prosperity. we have to be non-partisan because the data we produce are so vital, people need to be able to depend on it, really rely on it. so our data have to be accurate. they have have to be objective. i don't want people to think we're biased in any way. we follow a lot of procedures including full transparency to make sure that they are objective. and they have to be relevant. they have to answer theto questions that people need answered. they have to be timely. they have to get to people in time to make their decisions, h and they have to be accessible in both literal and both figure a tiff sense of the word. that's what we're about. we've been doing this a long time. i'm proud to say that i think we are the best statistical agency in the country and therefore the world. >> host: okay. bls.gov is website for those that want to check it out. daniel in corpus christie,
texas. good morning to you. >> caller: i'm wondering if there is any validity robert bruner citing adam smith, says in a saturated economy, eventually what has to happen is that activities once taken for granted will then have to be compensated? i'm thinking like a family bothering to raise children, getting to donald trump, somebody who raises good children, that makes good grades in school, maybe they need to be compensated and then that should go towards productivity, then i will listen to you off-line. >> host: jim tankersly, why don't you take that one. there is question what happenspi especially in a not far, not particularly right around the corner future where automation takes away enormous swaths of american jobs. then what? what do people do? how do we compensate that. that is part of what the theory
might predict.be maybe we will send money tog people for raising children. maybe we pay more money for jobs less compensated now because we value human service. it might be that you pay extra to go to a restaurant where a human waits on you, and therefore, human wait staff get paid more because that is so novel compared to most places where you punch in your order on a keyboard. we're not sure. this is the fun thing about economies. they grow and evolve and change. these sorts of things happen. there are various policy proposals that deal with some of these questions. i think good news is we're not about to automate away tens of millions of jobs tomorrow but it is something to think about in the fun, sort of sci-fi medium term. >> host: dave in northport, y new york, good morning to you. >> caller: good morning. quick question, i see a few people on tv, and listening to criticisms how you measure the unemployment and two quick things i want to ask about.
is how do they differentiate between full-time and part "time" jobs? person has two part-time jobs do they count that as two jobs created? especially on the last numbers that came, what is the birth-death rate model? how does that affect it? just curious, also how does the unemployment, when they calculate it now, how is it different than 1970? have they changed? thank you very much for -- >> host: thankthank you, dave. we'll try to remember all the questions. >> guest: i may need help. have we changed way we measured unemployment? no. not since the 1940s. that one's simple. the birth death model is something that we use in thee payroll survey. we ask companies how many jobs they had this month compared to last month but, it, it's, we
don't have information about births of companies and often it is very difficult to get in touch with a company that's dying, right? and so we have, and, so we need to, we need to factor in births and deaths. the way we do that by statistical model based on the past and we adjust the employment growth that we see in the continuing firms by what we expect that births and debts would be in that month. we do that on monthly basis. it is all totally transparent and you can see the model we use and how much it adds and subtractions. every year we actually get the truth from administrative data. so we rebenchmark the data and
correct it for any, any discrepancies we might have between what the model produced and what we actually measured. that, we made numbers of changes over the years to the birth-death model. it gets better over time. we'll probably continue doing that. >> host: last time was full time, part time.? how do you do that? >> in the household survey we ask people, is your job usually full time or is it usually part time? when we, we count you as employed, if you have even worked just one hour, okay, but we do measure how many people are working part time, how many people are working full time and we actually ask the part-time people, would you rather have a full-time job? so if you're just looking at the unemployment rate, the, you may have slack, you may have some distress in the labor market that, that one masks because you
have fewer people who have full-time jobs, that they would prefer to have, than they would prefer to have. so we have a measure for that called people who are part time for economic reasons. that number went very high during the recession. it has come down, most of the way but not all of the way. so that's another part of slack that we have in the labor market. it has been coming down. it is not all the way down. >> host: hear from kevin next in long island.d. hi, kevin. it is your turn. >> caller: good morning. commissioner groshen i have a question i've been trying toto figure out for a long time. how can we as a domestic economy have zero interest rates or very close to it, zero growth, or very close to it, and full employment all at the same time, with inflation just basically nonexistent? what i'm wondering is, is that the concentration on u-3 which
includes, as you just mentioned the part-time data, is, has always been traditionallyy focused on but because of our particular situation now since 2008, u-6 is probably more realistic evaluation where there economy is here domestically here in the united states since the collapse of the 2008. it just seems as though, in spite of the fact that the bureau of labor statistics is apolitical institution, i understand that. i accept that, however, the data that you, there was data, that, that the bureau has been releasing over this entire period, this entire seven or eight year period, has done nothing to reinforce the idea that we are trying to at leasthi
get back to where we were into 2007. and -- >> host: kevin, i have to jump to get a response from dr. groshen to get in morere calls. >> guest: the caller, thank you for bringing that up. one set of numbers we produce is a full range of labor underutilization measures we fondly call u-1 through u-6. u-1 being very restrictive measure. u-6 being most inclusive measure. that includes discouraged workers and includes people working part time who prefer a full-time job.mo that number right now is 9.7%. so that's close to double. the official unemployment rate4. of 4.9% but if you look at the way they track each other over time throughout the businessss cycle it is very similar. u-6 is always going to be larger than u-3. so what you're trying to measure
where we are over the course of the recession. they tell a pretty similar story but we produce them because, for different, to answer different questions you often need a different number. so if you want to measure the total amount of distress in the labor market you might prefer to use u-6. that's why we produce it. for some questions that is the right answer. >> host: jim, give you the next caller. robert in missouri, under 25,000. good morning. >> caller: hi. thank you to c-span and thank you for taking my comment. in 1955 less than 2% of men of prime working age were unemployed in the america. today that figure stands at about one in three. this is men of, working age 25 to 54. i was wondering if one or both of your guests could comment on
this statistic, which i believe is a nightmare for american families and a disaster for our country. >> host: we'll get a response from jim. >> guest: one in three unemployed -- no. let me look it up. >> guest: i talk about the trend. this is the trends that unemployment for prime age males is much higher than it was in the '50s. for some reasons you can think intuitively. some reasons that show some distressing findings and some reasons that are policy related. so, more women work now than in 1955.mo there is, and women have more of the skills, as a whole, the knowledge economy requires than, than men do. they have higher degree of college attainment. so that entry of women into the workforce and particularly intod jobs in the workforce some ways pushed up unemployment rate for men.
other things are going on though. the hollowing out of middle class jobs as over the last 1515 years in particular, has affected men quite badly in some particularring pockets of the economy. the incarceration rate affected men in parts of the economy. we have a lot of young, particularly african-american men in prison from working age, of working age. and that is a very, that shows up in these statistics. that is a reason why labor force participation is down among those men. >> host: before groshen, speaks, what about type of jobs we're seeing growth? this is july report. health care and professional business services lead job growth over the year. mining continues to decline. so we're seeing a trend, you know, as the economy works its way through the recession and pre and postrecession where