tv Key Capitol Hill Hearings CSPAN September 9, 2016 2:00am-4:01am EDT
key to our future success. we've proven and special elections in 2014, we believe going into 16 we have we have the right makeup of what the electorate will look like. the united states is never static nor are our analytics. we feel very strongly that we will maintain the house majority this election cyclecycle, being presidential, is a little more volatile. we feel very confident that we will maintain the majority. i know my friends, he is on my telecommunications subcommittee and we do a lot of work together but we have these other jobs on our off time. i was here and they said they
think they could win 60 or 70 and maybe 70 or 80 after the republican convention. my rebuttal to that is simply show me the list. if you look at the list, you get down and along the way they failed to recruit anybody again. i think it was a bit of a stretch to say they were going to get to 60, 80 or 40. our members are in very strong shape. in the last three weeks we have been pulling district after district. i would say as a footnote here, we do not run statewide other than wyoming and alaska and a few single-member states. we run in district so the data you often see is statewide data.
we care about what's happening in the competitive district. we were out there surveying in these districts and i can tell you if you look at the 24 most competitive districts that we've polled in august collectively, the generic ballot is 40 - 41 favoring republicans. that question is would you vote for the republican or democrat for congress in your district. we lead on the generic in the district. on the compilation of the congressional ballot, these are actually the head-to-head. if you compile them, republican candidates lead 49 - 39 over the democrat candidates in these 24 districts. presidential ballot, trump trails by two. presidential image, trump 38, 58 unfavorable, clinton 48 - 56. there is distinctly something different happening below the presidential when you get into
the congressional district. this is probably not news to you. they can go in their districts and do their job and have their own identities in their district and if the members have been doing what they needed to do or are, whichever it is, then they have their own image and their own following and their own support base. : something to talk about positively. everybody knows we were not big
fans of obamacare. the same is true for energy and poverty in america. it's all in here. on the agenda how to solve america's problems which by the way is how we get elected. finally, paul ryan. i know there was speculation when he was considering the speakership that somehow he would be incapable of raising significant funds the case he may not work some days and he was fully equipped to raise money. he has said a record for any sitting speaker over the course since he's been the speaker of transferring $30 million to the nrc see. that's an enormous record. we feel good about where we are apt and i'm confident we will hold of the majority and welcoe
your questions. >> how big of a concern to you have about the impact especially the electronic version. hispanic my question is about mr. trump is the fourth district of utah where mr. trump is not popular at all i eight of you cn respond to the comment yesterday that she believes there is a chance that the democrats will take the house. hispanic i appreciate the question and i see now how the perks of being president of the organization as you can get the
question. one, th the data that i assuredr that the 24 competitive races showed that mr. trump and mrs. clinton are not popular in the districts. we are not seeing a significant down ballot affect at this point in time. there've been folks on the other side have made th that have madm all they have to do is type your number to donald trump and it's game over. i'm not seeing empirical data that shows that in terms of how they operate in the campaign because i think american voters first of all are a lot smarter than that and understand that the person they are voting for in their house district is somebody they know and it's clear that presidential
candidates are running for their own office. where is the data, we are not seeing that. as for the leader pelosi's comments i would draw your attention to the sites in the 2010 on the day of the election she said we are on pace to maintain the majority of the house of representatives. that was the morning of 2010. they lost 63 seats an in the 12, she said that it was aimed reach and very doable but we ended up with the second since world war ii coming of the biggest majority in 2010. >> have them produced a lis prot and show me the data.
>> you mentioned obamacare and mitt romney said after he lost on fox in a clip that he played because of the benefits for obamacare and constituency for it you mentioned that you would fix and replace it. what would you do now but it just came out that there is the lowest uninsured in 30 years and there are lifetime benefits, millions of kids covered, pre-existing conditions covered. what will you do to replace it that will not take away from the 20 million new people that are insured? >> it would draw your attention to better dot gop and find a host of proposals to address the issue of affordable healthcare. clearly what we have is not affordable healthcare. in my own state it was announced
a day before yesterday that the medicaid expansion will put the state into a $1.3 billion hole in the next so you'd have continuing costs rising that i don't think were fully anticipated. i remember when the state took on its obligation. i quizzed the governor and his people and he thought they would see the cost savings, not any kind of increase now multiple years later we see 1.3 billion. we fully support making sure people that have pre-existing conditions continue to get coverage. there were lots of agreements leading children's day, 26 stay on their parents insurance makes sense but you can create a competitive marketplace across state lines that would produce the kind of competition the new electronic technical age has given us for all kinds of other products and services that have dramatically empowered consumers to drive down price and expand competition in the market where we don't see much competition so
i would tell you there are lots of ways when i was in the small business for 21 years we provided 100% insurance for the people that worked with us. i never had the ability to compete. we were in a small town and you have maybe one other option and all i did is throw a dart at the budget board to figure out how much my premiums were going to go up. now people may have coverage but if you have to wait o lay down e first $5,000 in a deductible before coverage kicks in and of the median average income in my district i believe is 35,000, what kind of insurance do you have. there are problems we need to come together to fix them so that access to health care is affordable.
i can't resist this with both of you there. there was only one major party presidential nominee that was a licensed radio operator. you've noted just before what were thought to be targets of the democrats never materialized with some spin opponents. i spoke just yesterday to a lady from lancaster county pennsylvania, a republican who tells me that the open seat the congressman is giving up is now in play in the democratic national committee and the super pack is backing the democrat who
won the nomination for the open seat. that was on the screen for more than a century. did you see situations popping up in the final two months of the campaign that you have to work with? >> you've been reporting on politics for a generation if you will work couple of generations. there's all these seats that come into play and go out of play. we believe very strongly that he is in very good shape and will win that seat. this is the seed for those of you that don't dig deep into every seat and every location. the best thing we want is for someone to retire because now
you have an open seat and a new race that we know we have to pay special attention and we will. but when you look at the recruitment failures around as you mentioned, this is the democratic seat and they are left with a candidate who already lost the district by double digits in the last cycle. if you look at the michigan eight, melissa gilbert, star of little house on the prairie faltered so badly she dropped out and then they had to hustle around in august and find somebody else to run. if you look at new jersey number three, the candidate lost his primary to a perennial losing candidates that have $600 cash on hand. there was one where we spent -- or macarthur did spend millions. if you look at martha i'm not even sure they laid down any money. good ohio where they were
spending millions as late as 2012 on the ohio seats. i don't believe they've laid out a single byte this cycle were last in ohio which you know is going to be a competitive presidential state. so as we look around the country there will be some takes. there always are in this business but i would much rather it be us than them. >> thanks for the data for the intro. >> can i ask you about two different situations. one is the libertarian candidate, this fellow in the race in new york 22 can you discuss the effectiveness on that and other races and also the funders like randy perkins in floridacan you identify where they are helping or hurting?
>> you have to look at each of the races because in each one a certain third-party candidate can vote for the republicans or another they put from the democrats so you have to drill down race by race and i can't get each one in that case. i can say in the seat where you arscenes whereyou are talking aw york 22 that both candidates are really wealthy i think and the independenindependent is one ofy clinton's major contributions, so my gut tells me if you've got an independent is a clinton supporter in the district that we now know supports donald trump, i'd seen the data don't you have two people on the left not one and then to underwrite antwo on theright and we alwaysn the left in a three-way race.
in terms of the funding, randy perkins made a lot of money and he's been under investigation and had to testify in congress for how he made his money and that's pretty interesting when you are allegedly taking advantage of the victims in how you do your business that is a e topic of campaign as you know. so the quality of the candidate, the character matters a lot. money isn't always the overriding decision-maker. if it were, then the edge they had against us in the last cycle would produce a different outcome than the record majority we were able to do so is the quality of the candidates and i would say for whatever set of reasons, the democratic committee failed to do good recruitment throughout almost the entire cycle and that left them with weak candidates in the race is, and they are struggling
to try to create races now. when you are doing that you aree bound here away and it becomes harder and harder. >> there's been a lot of discussion about the strategy the republicans used arguing that bill clinton shouldn't be given a blank check the democratic congress. we've already seen speaker ryan and fundraising e-mails use the blank check argument. are you planning on using that strategy either in the continued fundraising e-mails or television advertising and when do you think that would be the most effective strategy? >> we are not in the habit of forecasting the e-mails were campaign strategies. but i would tell you this i think americans are concerned when you look at where the former speaker is in the
polling. the notion that we could go back to the day that brought about this huge uprising in america in 2010 where there was no check and balance is clearly an anathema to the center-right americans. they want some sort of check and balance against the liberal take away so peaceful that play out in 2010. every cycle is different. remember the difference here that's important. after the big waves and 94 in the first time since 40 years there was no redistricting until you got to 2000. then the most recent came in time in 2010 when literally the next cycle, there was redistricting and one of the big stories you've all covered with this enormous wave that played out at the legislative level. so, the state houses became more republican just in time to walk in the districts that were
advantageous for maintaining the majoritthemajorities of the dyne different in terms of the number of seats that are at play this time, but in terms of messaging, it is a bold message for our districts and members to talk about do you want complete one-party democratic rule because again we just got through that, and i think the answer is no. >> despite the tightening of the polls is it true that more members than usual are running away from the republican presidential nominee? >> i think the other question is how many of them are embracing hillary and nancy pelosi? we are asking members that now are you going to vote for nancy pelosi for speaker in these competitive races. i think that is a valid question to ask. if you get out to nebraska, they've made a career trying to avoid the person he's sharing
the campaign with. you will find members will do what they believ believe, and wh the beauty of the voters in that district believe and run the races and so everybody's going to do their own thing. >> mr. chairman, politico, thanks for being here. you mentioned that you have done polling in the 24 battleground races recently. do you know how many of those clinton is leaving and what is your advice to the candidates and the districts like that? >> the data is a compilation of them all and of the members are leaving their opponents and in some cases overwhelmingly. so i've seen those where trump for clinton leads but that being said members are strong. are we going to have competitive races, of course. i'm not going to stand here and tell you we won't have
competitive races -- is that the president and? you can't come off the biggest majority since 1928 and not expect to have some competitive races. we know we have those. but it's very limited that are the hypercompetitive i would call them and so i feel very good about where we are at. >> do you have any particular advice to the candidates where clinton is leading from? >> i would say first of all, give the voters a reason to vote for them. that's part of what you have to do. voters expect to get solutions or at least proposed solutions from the people asking for their vote and so i think go talk about what matters in your district. it's one of those you get in a district like mine and it may be the threat of a monument being declared, that is an 80 to 90 plus% issue.
you get other parts of the district that need the safety and somewhere else it's something else, forest fires are always big in the last. there's so many issues that are important on the minds of the voters and what we try to do is help the candidates identified with those issues are in the district. we have seen races decided over the city council when they raised the toll on the bridge because that's what really mattered to those voters and that's how we go in and win the races. we don't look at it and say it's only natural if you support the nominee or whatever. okay. you've got to deal with all that. but the bread and butter is issues that matter at home locally.
>> i'm from the "washington post." >> i didn't want to ignore you. stick to draw a threa the threah a couple things you talked about, you talked about the polling at this point and a lot of times particularly presidential years the voters don't start paying attention on tour right about now after labor day and that's when the messaging kicks up. i wonder if you are worried at all as it is kicking up it's also the time when congress is about to have a fight about spending and that's the kind of thing that will be in the back of their mind as they are starting to look at the candidates. how do you message against that and do you worry they are good to start to change dramatically with the push is coming out now? >> very good set of questions. when it comes to the polling itself, we have a much higher confidence level about the quality of the polling and
certainly we had coming out of 2012 if you recall i believe governor mitt romney and his team believe we are going up election night to win and we were all shocked. that caused a deep dive review of what went wrong with. you got it wrong, we paid for it lets figure out what went wrong. we've got a lowe found a lot ofd made the changes. we've been able to pressure test those so we be the first of all the quality of the data are pretty good. second, timing matters. in august it matters because this is the first wave of messaging that helps you lead the first wave in the end. this will not be the only time obviously and it won't be the only messages we put out so we will adjust accordingly as time goes. it's a snapshot looking backwards in the rearview mirror if you well and so we realize we
have to continue to look and dive and figure out what's going on. we will continue it so it's not static. third, the issue that always matters and what happens here in washington matters but i don't think it would be enormous news to americans that congress has a fight over spending. it probably won't make many places around the country but it's something we need to get our work done and that we will address in the conference tomorrow and we would like to have as the speaker said yesterday low drama september, get work done and finish up. we have major work to finish. we will get it done. >> dallas morning news which means i'm asking about the district 23 race. since i last asked you about this we had the address and the hispanic republican kind of i
don't want to say give up but that's basically what happened. when we look at the majority hispanic district, how do you insulate him from the attacks this week democrats have been doing it for a while an and it seems worse now when he has another republican in his state agreeing. >> i think the voters in his part of texas now have got into note the very effective legislator. he is not only done well legislatively but he's worked his district hard and they know him and what he's about and what his views are and they will distinguish between his and where there is disagreement with others so i feel good about where he is. he's been very effective that's not only the campaign last time that the campaign this time. he's a much stronger shape going in this time than last time even with a presidential model
dynamic in terms of the electorate so we are watching that. we are invested and have more on the republican side invested in that race and the democrats have. he's not exactly the most aggressive campaigner. he has a rap for being a little lazy and that's not just me. that's what i've picked up from people. i think will has shown an energy level, commitment and accomplishment record of passing bills and getting things done that puts him in very strong shape and is the one race in texas in the house seat so i am very bullish on where he is. >> it's well known donald trump doesn't have much of a field operation. i think there is only one field office right now.
i'm wondering are you concerned at all what the effect is going to be on hand giving voters and what is the nrc see doing to get the voters out on their own outside of trump tax >> that's a good question and i would say the first answer is yes. we are concerned about the voter turnout. we always are. preceding that is the voter identification and data because the enormous investment in, but the investments dwarfed significantly by the investments that the republican national committee have put into the data and don't hold me to this because i don't know all of what they are doing, but they have had a game going on for a long time in competitive states. we talked about it and over the last several years he wanted a party that didn't just show up and then go away for the next four. so where the presidential campaign may not have the same level that you would normally
expect, the rnc has been in the states with field offices doing a lot of work a campaign manager might come in to do. i've seen some day that there were if you take trump, rnc, clinton and the rnc because it's been really bad financial shape up until probably the last month or so. there was some level of competition going on in terms of the ground game. going forward we will invest. we have been investing in the ground game all along in the parking structure. >> [inaudible] spinnaker the affect is minus three or four. i know not all of them are in play but -- it certainly brings them into their holes host of
other seats on the get out the vote operation that doesn't exist. >> you are presuming the only one is linked to the presidential campaign which is a false assumption because every one of our plan for every one of our campaigns has their own built into it so we know where there are other resources and where there are and. so you are having to supplement. >> you could say that but there was no presidential get out the vote campaign going on in 14. we know how to do get out the vote and we know where we are needed. our campaigns built that in from the beginning. i look at these things having been through various campaigns. some were tough. i don't want to rely on anybody else. i want to be self-sufficient, but scouts in me, he prepared. with the structure in each of the campaign campaigns is how te
self-sufficient and if you get extra help, great. but we didn't have any of that last time and so i would argue we have more of it out there now and consistently more than we've ever had. we are coming in and of the campaigns arthecampaigns are cof there's more help, great. but then you also have to look where are those numbers and i would assume a lot of the field operations werfieldoperations we called ohio where they don't have a competitive race and i would suggest going around and looking our day in california with a huge field operation, probably not. and so florida, yes but how many races are there in florida, only a couple. so you have to also do that to say where they are giving their investment, how much does that affect our races, in summitville and senate won't. we want to be self-sufficient.
>> kimberly with the national journal. what are your plans for after the cycle and can you plan to endorse anybody running for the chair? >> my focus has been like a laser on the next two months to make sure we do everything possible to have as big of a majority as possible, so that is literally how unfocused this time and how i was focused when i led the campaign in the house and i felt like if people have extra time to divide up i've got other work for your hand. and so, having said that, i think it's no secret in this town that i would very much like the chair of the energy and commerce committee. i am not alone in that. in denver obviously and in the past cycles there've been when
the chairmanship has opened there's always been a bit of a competitive race but my focus remains on this very, very important job to make sure we have as big of a majority as possible and do everything i can to support the speaker and mccarthy and others so that's where i'm focused. as for the chairman that will be a decision by the conference. i think it's important for me to stay focused on this job and not be involved in that effort at this time. >> you mentioned kevin mccarthy. how much damage did this do when he said what he said that it was political that we did the investigation? >> i will let others determine that. i think what he said was taken out of context for what he mea meant. >> okay.
right behind, over there. >> actually come over here but either way. we can do both. and i do want to say by the way to everybody, questions, please from the media and club members. if there's other spectators but i. >> elizabeth from the energy intelligence. her question was a good segue assuming the gop holds a majority in the house and you become the chair and also assuming that clean power plant is forever stalled in court and hillary clinton is the president -- this is a good scenario -- people have said her negotiating skills, would you be willing to sit down with her or listen to what she had to say and come up with some sort of climate legislation that you would feel comfortable with?
>> i'm not today going to talk about what i may or may not negotiate with somebody who may or may not be president and may or may not -- i think my record in service in the congress is that i've always been open to sitting down with other people on other sites of the iowa to figure things out. we've done that legislation in oregon, i've worked on telecom issues on a bipartisan basis we got the auction going on now in the spectrum and clearly, i'm opei amopen to having discussiot future energy policy. you will find a celeb that detailed a better way as well. we need an energy policy to make america competitive and the cognizant of its effect on the environment. i would welcome a white house that would be more engaged with congress in a positive way than this one has been and i think even my democrat colleagues in the moment with express similar
frustration about the lack of engagement. i remember when i was a freshman, bill clinton was president the last two years i was invited down as a freshman on the committee that i cared about trade issues and he was very engaged and i would look forward to obviously a republican president with bodily engagement to be a willing and active partner to make change for america. >> would issue most would you like to see accomplished in that engagement? >> we have a whole host of issues. if you look at the poverty agenda paul ryan has championed for probably two decades or more about how to lift people out of poverty, that's something we can find support on. i would like to see if we don't get it done this year, and i think we will come and finish
the work fred upton has so incredibly glad on the 21st century tours. these diseases, 7,000, 5,000, we have the cures they don't check your party registration before they check you down. we all have family members have suffered from diseases where there are no cures so i think the work that fred has done with the white house, i commend the white house and th the president 21st century tours matter. matter. if tim murphy's work on mental health reform, extraordinarily important for the communities. so i began to do roundtables and you hear the pain and suffering and we hear we have to fix the programs or at least make sure they work. those are all important things. the world is changing dramatically and i chaired that committee there would be a lot to do in that as well and of course america's great growth in the energy sector and i think we have to put that in the context of its international effects that can be positive in pushing
back on the regimes and countries that are not always pleasant with their neighbors that control the energy so i think that we could have a really solid energy package and healthcare really matters dealing with the problems with the affordable health care act t it's not very affordable for families. there are lots of these issues we need to come together as a country to find common ground and move forward. >> abby livingston, texas tribune. you are watching billions of dollars go out the door right now in the advertising. the chair man wants to replace the one of the issues is reducing or cutting member dues. does that worry you given the context right now can the funds be offset by other forms of fund raising? >> that's a really good question. i would want to see the mass on how that would really work, because i know how much our
members step up and help us and it's overwhelming, and i know it's a heavy lift but they also understand we are a team and they realize if you want to be in the majority or expand the number that you have to expand so i've been overwhelmed by the support we get from the conference and from the leadership. anytime you have a cutting that is pretty dramatic you have a plan how you will make that up and if you can make that up elsewhere i would say let's go do that now because we can use the extra 20 or 30 million that would open. so that will be the key. the members who would rather not have to do all this fundraising it's probably the least popular thing for about 99% of the members but it's also what you have to do to grow your majority cannot be in the majority, set d the agenda to solve problems for
the country. >> more questions? >> uab a good moderator. >> i've had a little experience. >> can you talk a little bit about -- i know you don't get involved in primaries, but the race in new hampshire tuesday, obviously he's had a lot of ethics problems and they called for him to re-sign. would it be easier for you in the fall if he were to lose the primary? >> i'm not going there at all. we have said we would support the nominee coming out of the primary. frank has been a very solid legislator especially on the financial services committee and has worked hard. when any member has issues it's up to them to go back and explain them to their constituents. frank has put a lot of time and effort into doing that and as you may or may not already know we have laid down several
million dollars. i don't know the exact number because we want to hold the seat. if we ask them who their nominee will be going forward i we anticipate that would be frank. >> on another one of your potential successors talked about what they do and backing incumbents aggressively. what do you think of that? >> there's different organizations and they only have a handful that are up at 333 that's basically in the cycle, 33, 33, 34. we don't have that luxury. if you start getting into primaries and how you pick and choose, i think our resources are best spent being on offense debating democrats and maintaining and gaming where we can cycle in and cycle out the majorities omajority so the foct
placed on the general elections. it's not that we don't work with our incumbents. we have a hold challenge in the primary to work with us and obviously they have access to everything else. so we just don't spend money and the primaries. >> back to where we started almost. >> tonight comment on the jack martin's race in new york and the judge ordered there to be a primary in october. can you talk about the disruption affected the destruction and what's your assessment of that? >> it's a bit of a bizarre ruling. the disenfranchises are the men and women in uniform that those overseas potentially because of the timeline which is very disturbing.
as i understand i spen spend enh nights at the holiday inn i could tell you that there was a long period of time when objections could have been raised. there's questions about the integrity of the signatures on the petitions. i know that's being contested. i think it's a peculiar set of circumstances that many months after the primary all of a sudden the judge steps in and says we have to have another primary because he should have been on the ballot even though the state said he shouldn't have been, so that sets up an october something he proposed primary and then into the general i don't know what's going on. it's interesting and i think both disappointing and disenfranchising. we are fully invested. this will be one of the circumstances. there is money down there and i've been in the district.
we are all supporting jack alson and well throughout the progress. by the way on the seat it's only a d+ one. this is a pickup opportunity so i don't know if that's -- i won't speculate why we are having the primary that we can win that seat and we will. >> some people, albeit no republican running has actually endorsed gary johnson and richard hanover is retiring and said he would back hillary clinton. is there any evidence in any of the polling that republicans
might gain if they vote for their nominee and endorsed a libertarian nominee gary johnson? >> not that i've seen. >> useful but today he asked on national tv [inaudible] >> about a side note, we haven't seen that. it's interesting, we have seen in the race of the house democrats supporting and contributing to her campaign so you do get some crossover from here and there every once in a while. with that -- >> can we get one final question and then call it an enormously helpful and wonderful events you've done for us. to get to the news of the day, will there be a continuing resolution, will it be december were going to march, what is the
conference think and what will the impact of the if there is this debate over a shutdown on the congressional races? >> we don't know. i don't know the answer yes becausyetbecause they haven't ht discussion. the meeting takes place tomorrow and as you know he's been faithful to his commitment to the conference to peace with the decisions that would come from the membership and not the top down. i think that he said that publicly and we will have that discussion. we have work to do. with that, thank you for coming out and i'm glad to share a few comments with you. council todas
is about one hour and 15 minut minutes. >> good morning everyone. iam president and ceo of the national council and the clr. we are delighted to host what we think will be a very important discussion as it relates to the presidential elections. on behalf of an clr i want to welcome you to efficiently to today's briefing on the dynamics of the latino electorate and how that is shaping the 2016 election. perhaps i don't have to tell some of you how different this election has been or has filed.
there's been nothing conventional or conditional about this year so much that might have been expected but perhaps lost in the roller coaster ride has been the fact that what was expected of its latino voters would be playing a pivotal role if in fact happening. what we diwhen we did expect ise fastest growing group of voters in the community that has already made headlines in 2012 are poised to make a difference. as i have said often, the road to the white house runs right through the latino community. what we did not anticipate is the extent that the community would be the face and in many ways the target of the most prominent issue of the campaign,
immigration. and frankly not enough attention has been given to the impact that this will have on the community into the vote. that's why we are hosting today's forum. the panel of experts will address the growth of the vote. we expect at least 2 million more to vote in 2016 van in 2012. we will discuss how the community feels about the election and the top issues. finally, we will also talk about the ways that we are working to make sure that their voice is heard in this election. it is not about partisanship, it is about participation. there are still too many who are eligible but yet not citizens registered to vote and nearly half of the latino potential
voters, about 44% are millenni millennial. and each year, nearly 1 million more latino citizens turned 18 and become eligible to register and vote. these are important factors that need more attention. our voice will only continue to grow stronger but it will not happen solely on its own. it will take a good deal of work, effort and focus. but we do have good news for our fellow americans. the more than 55 million in the country are maturing into a political force for good. for anyone who cares about good schools, safe streets, healthy communities, a better economy, sound immigratio,some immigratie sound immigration policy is a were a strong and inclusive
society, the growth should be a welcomed development because those are the issues that moved our community. so i'm very pleased to kickoff the panel and start by introducing our moderator who then will address the panelists. fernando is the washington correspondent for the univision television group, an emmy nominated journalist, he's covered capitol hill, the white house and the federal government for more than 15 years. in 2014, the huffingtonpost listed him as one of the top 40 latinas in american media. prior to joining univision, his other experience includes working for cnn and spanish, the associated press and the correspondent for national television of chile. it's an honor that we have him deserve today as the moderator
and now i will turn the program over to him. >> thank you for your kind introduction and being here with us today. what's been a long and interesting cycle, welcome to the panelists. we've been doing the national election cycle so i've seen how this particular has raised the interest of people particularly in the hispanic community and other minority communities as well. the rhetoric we have heard so far during the primary season may be since a year ago has been what many have called offensive or toxic. some candidates are not focusing
on issues that are. how many of the voters will turn out to vote and in what state? >> we know the projections that this could be a historic turnout but they are a little short. then we also know there is millions more that are eligible and to have not done so will they turn into enthusiasm to try to want to participate some candidates more than others motivating them to.
these are some of the topics we will discuss today. we will talk about what is needed in the final months as we approach the voter registration deadlines. it shows the issues related as we near the election and finally the vice president of politics and national campaigns will talk about her organizations work to engage the vote.
i am an immigrant kind who also because i didn't grow up with all these devices i'm a digital immigrant. so, follow me. >> we just want to make sure that everybody has the correct slide. i think we have a couple. anyway, if anybody is interested in the handle. thank you for being here. i thought it would be important even because in this day and a
age. in the white house and many state and local races there's still a lot of misconception in the community and particularly as we head into the hispanic heritage month, if you pay close attention you will hear some of those because of the nature of the debate there's a broader perception that all our immigrants and with that most of them are undocumented and that fuels all different kinds of things including the cries of voter fraud. so i thought that it would be good to start with some of the basics.
some are united states citizens. it is the demographic change in the country and giving it through thgetting itthrough thef immigration, the reality is that majority is a citizen community. and of those under 18 bits 93% and that is part of what is fueling the future growth of potential latino voters is that very young contingent that is coming up. it doesn't matter what you look at we are a young population.
to make sure just like w they he a place in the marketplace. the latinos are going to play a pivotal role that it's not just in the states that normally think about and about list keeps growing so in many ways what we are seeing unfold like arizona, colorado it's other things to come in the states. in 2012 they are casting a ballot and grew by 18% nationally but that was 26%
growth between 08 and 2012. in florida it was 18%. in north carolina by 39%. in pennsylvania, 19% in virginia 54%. and for those of you interested in looking at those numbers and the social economic indicators for latinos in each of the states you can see the fact sheet for each in the publications section of the website that will give you the population numbers, voting growth numbers as well as health education employment housing and other areas so anyway, what's mentioned anbothmentioned and io emphasize is we are seeing a
contradictory environment given the light of that growth and that is it's taken a negative tone towards the community but also we are seeing the weak investments in what we consider as nonpartisan organizations as a key factor in growing the latino vote. and why are people paying attention to the vote. it is episodic as we are trying to change and i think just at a glance of a show you even though we still have gaps to close it has been growing faster than the sum of their american counterparts and so where are the gaps? this is when i try to update every election that shows very clearly one of the things that's important about what happens so
if you look at the red line and the green line that is the vast majority of resources in the cycles that are spent in mobilizing the register voters. people go to mobilize the outreach to the latino community that's what i would suggest is that that completely misses the picture in terms of where the opportunity as those that are eligible to register and in addition to the 12 million currently, there is an average of 18 every year. i would want you to take away this number.
among the latinos that are registered, 80 to 82% of them vote in a presidential year. that's why the challenges closing registration gaps. it's a little bit different but since we are in a presidential i want to make sure i highlight that. there's too much in this graph. it's going to be available online but this is just to give you a taste of the different states that are -- but people are talking about this year and what happened to the victory in 2012 and who is in play but the most important part here again is that i am most people think about latinos when they think of certain states it's important to look at what are the states that have the fastest growth in latino voters and even though the numbers are small, they will continue to grow and therefore politicians can choose to continue to ignore this
population at their own peril. in terms of the work we are trying to do and because the community is young and many people are first-time voters or may even be the first voter in their family, we are trying to create a number of different strategies that can meet people according to their sensibilities whether that is the traditional method of going door-to-door and having those conversations which is still the most effective to providing people the tools to empower themselves and putting the access to registration in the palm of their hand but also because we are a younger community to work with schools possibly have a big push coming up in a couple of the back-to-school high school senior voter registration where we are partnering with schools across the country to make sure they are eligible and get
registered. in doing a number of different experiments to make sure that we are able to do the registration more effectively as we continue to see the investments get weaker so that we are able to grow the electoral voice of the community as well as in terms of accountability and issue of campaign. a little bit more information about the work at the tools we are creating to make sure people have access to the information they need. and what i would say to close is that this is no surprise we said this i think since 2014 the latino vote will continue to grow. i think it almost goes without saying that every cycle we voted in record numbers compared to the last cycle will hold true. we want to make sure that grows faster given the number of
people who are becoming eligible for the other thing is a lot of people talk about the growth of the electorate in terms of partisan interest. that means it goes blue or red or whatever and this is what i would say to that. that is a choice that the parties make. this is the choice to parties make and leave latinos with. there is no outreach if there is no meaningful progress on issues the community cares about. that's what creates the decision for the voter whether they go one way or another. so it's not like they have a democratic gene of some kind. it's what are the choices they have and so when it comes to that i would see the trajectory we have seen since 2006 is where
the latino voters are concerned, republicans seemed to be their own worst enemies, sorry, and the democrats best friends. but the reality is if there is not a change in that, republicans will be facing a shrinking base and democrats have an opportunity for an expanding base but they haven't sealed the deal. because at the end of the day, candidates matter, issues matter, and meaningful outreach is essential and i think the perfect example of that, the perfect political playbook for anybody of any party was the race of 2014 where it leane lead in terms of outreach and taking positions that spoke to the community where he could have just leaned back because he was running against a candidate that was making offensive statements about the communities that kind of sounds familiar.
targeting the voters suppose suo parties and candidates reach out to is a narrow slice of the country. and what i would say it's even among latinos that have a strong voter history when we have done polling in the past, we have seen from that is that even the outreach into the information they get from parties is not the intensity that you would assume among others so what does that mean? with a population that is adding so many new voters every cycle, with a population where so many need to become registered, those are not the areas where political campaigns invest and that's where the vast majority of resources for. so the voter registration has
normally been left up to the good samaritan approaches of any nonpartisan organizations and resources for that have been weak and getting weaker which is a high concern for us and i think of other communities for a couple of reasons. for us, because we have a big registration gap to close and i think in general because of how many americans we are seeing not voting so we need to made sure we don't let folks who are eligible missed that conversation, so that's the gap. >> and going back to the topic >> i was asked to remind you all if you have questions, if you would speak inthewould speak ine because cnn is reporting. i want to look at the state of the racstate ofthe race where ts are today in terms of their issue priorities and be with the candidates and parties and their
sense about the importance of the contest and a little bit on outreach. so, these results are data that almost a week ago last friday from a national survey that we did with 3,729 latino registered voters across the country. we asked the question what is the most important issue and first on the yellow bar, we gave it a.q.. what do you think the congress and the president should address, produced his immigration, second as the economy, third as healthcare and the anti-latino or anti-immigrant discrimination. this is an open-ended questions othat we record the first two answers people give because people often in the volunteered responses say it's education and healthcare so we record the first two. immigration ranked first and then healthcare third. of those three are commonly in
the top three. usually education is in the fourth spot but we usually see economy and immigration in the top two escalating back-and-forth. anti-immigrant and anti-latino discrimination have perked up more and more since we started. we've been asking the question a long time but since about last summer this is the second time we have seen it suggested something that we've observed. then the second question we ask when we just say what are the most important issues economy is first of 36, immigration is second, healthcare and terrorism, national security were tied at 14. with respect to the views of the favorability with candidates,
there is a favorability among 68% but have have a favorable a 29%, 74% of the negative view with 21% and the positive so they are the two most disliked candidate so it's not true she is viewed pretty favorably and has a 68% have a positive view of her and that's quite the opposite compared to trump so i would be mindful of those narratives speak about with most americans think were most working class, most latinos are working class americans. among those that have an unfavorable view it includes those who might otherwise think are available to republicans so it includes 74% of those that do their interviews in english, 73%
so it's more cultur more culturo become a 68% of the self identified independents and 56% we know have been the most reliable national origin voting block for republicans. >> with respect to the presidential vote when we asked the question a couple weeks ago, 70% said they expect they will vote for hillary clinton and 19% said they expect a vote for trump, 4% another candidate in only 5andonly 5% undivided and d they don't think they are going to vote. so this is what it looks like when reality has a partisan bias. it's not undecided, it's not close. she's ahead by quite a bit. and again, among the constituencies we know in the past they've been either swing voters were more reliable republican voters.
again, two thirds conducted interviews in english and more than two thirds of the us-born, 53% of hispanic voters will tell us they voted in the past and she is winning the majority. something about those voting for george w. bush when he hit the mark in the low 30s or 40s and she is also winning with cuban-americans with 50%. the presidential candidates are the standard bearers for their party. we asked do you think donald trump or hillary clinton has made the party more welcoming to latinos or hostile or do you think that the fact no effect. the red bars are the response about trump and blue is the response about clinton. 10% think they've made the party more welcoming to latinos and 70% think he's made it more
hostile and 16% say no difference. 58% think that hillary made the democratic party and 10% more hostile and i want to say about 25% no difference. among those that think he's making the party more hostile include four out of ten self identified republicans, 42% say he's hurting my own party. 61% of cuban-americans, 62% of prayer gop voters. this is not a gender perspective commits similar among men and women, 70% of latina. this is also not about a culture he should cut 74% are third generation plus and think that he is doing damage to the party in this community. and with clinton, she's actually doing well with segments of the latino electorate.
60% think that she's making the party more welcoming to hispanics broadly and that's important because the output of their male counterparts by about five to 7%. among 44% of those that voted for republicans in the past, they think she's making the party more welcoming to latinos and 25% of republicans one out of four can see that she's making the democratic party more welcoming to latinos. we asked hispanic voters thinking about this election do you think it's more important that you vote in this compared to the last election in 2012, and 76% said they think that it's more important than the last, 19% said the same and then the last one was more important. so 76% think there's something different about this one. then in a different way we ask
compared to the last election would you say you were more enthusiastic, 51% say they are more enthusiastic and 31% say they were more enthusiastic and 25 and 18% about the same. we expected the gap of 76%, more importantly but only 51 are more enthusiastic and that his enthusiasm sort of implies something positive and there is a lot of negativity and hostility leveled out at the electorate so they may not feel enthusiastic about the tenor of the race but feel that it's important. when we ask what's different, then it makes it more important so we followed up with the two thirds into said it was important. we asked what's more important this time. the ones in the yellow bar start with more importance and the green. no matter if it was more
enthusiastic or more important, it was important for them to stop donald trump so that was an open-ended question are important so that he doesn't need america to become a more racist country and it's important to stop the discrimination against latinos, so that's sor that sort of respd then the second at 25 is up 25%y that it's two separate hillary clinton and then the smaller share gave a combination of trump and clinton about 15% gave those responses. when people say this is different, here's one way to quantify it and how it is different in the psyche to the hispanic electorate. last, we know the community is engaged and we ask how often asn they are following news related,
41% say they are following it every day and another 37% say they are following it several times a week. we ask how muc asked how much te personally engaging in terms of talking with their friends whether it is posting online or liking things on social media, engaging in conversations with people in real life, 24% so one out of four say they are talking about it every day and another 34% say several times and then 22% say it a few times a month and about 20% say that it's ra rare. ..
>> bob. >> i excited to do be here and the key saying is both the latinos were told years ago we are strongly rooted in the digital strategy and this is bearing some fruit now because we have a following of young people that they trust we can bring them tools that is a multipronged approach one thing that was said very clearly in the presentation best to come fast and early what we found with the electorate and even with my past life working with my
boss in the senate about folks not being reached out to or if they are registered voters participating in elections but not hearing from the campaign's they are done we are about building movements and community power and that takes time and investment and understanding of our community one of the things that we've learned early is that although pure to appear is the best approach you telling your college roommate or friend to go vote that is why as we develop a strategy and technology we have found a celebrity voices and the digital influence gives an added voice within the added chamber and added voice and
you really need folks food can draw upon the pulp - - pop culture references into feel a little more acceptable but they just don't hear that from politicians who don't always move the dial for our community. second think about social media with the information that hopefully we have digested but just to reaffirm what we know that is the amount of time that young latinos spend online behalf those that day over index online to of those are on social media so in addition to traditional of reach efforts not to star leon social media but by a scheduling your post to
maximize their reach to the young latinos who are at college those that are not made need to see the message again tonight when they are off work so think of that digital strategy in naval listed way that doesn't just keep in mind those that will already be getting the information samara else. i like to point to that as well as making sure even our parents who may not be native to on-line strategies that also are testing and sharing on space will dash bes book and in that is critical. if. [laughter] and the other quick datapoint to pullout is similar to what we did with american women and working
on this effort as well talking about young latinas and what they care about and how all important for immigration is an opening close-up to conversation but for those that at drop-off in that they care about considerably and will care about and one of the things we took away from this is that paid family leave was one of the most important topics for the young latinos in some said why is that? they were really surprised especially to because they were young women. we do have young parents in our community so paid family leave is one and remodel our programs over our sister organizations around the
leadership development programs that recognizes young latinos are the leaders in their homes, as translators help '02 college may be the english is not as proficient such recognize that on a personal and that they are the gatekeeper information with those policy areas that perhaps you don't see with college affordability or equal pay and some of those with different graphics that were on line with the young latinos.
>> we're happy to provide this separately. >> kelso more big picture we think of hispanic heritage month that it colleges through voter registration day of the co-founder and organization that when you create a moment or day the especially those innocuous to it you can create a lot more engagement so the latino community are hosting hispanic harris tinge month -- harry tisch month of recall of the community to register to vote as a collective effort and to make sure the entire community has several opportunities to maximize
the participation. we will be calling on our entire partners through the last minute to keep mobilizing. of many of these are happening now because we are getting close to voter registration deadlines around the country many are none through late october and finally i have to talk to our commitment to voter modernization and technology we have a focus tightly on figuring out how we create efficiency in access through technology so with that ever in is we just launched an android version a couple weeks ago and there is a standing technology that cuts on the front end to pre-populate the voter registration form and it is really important because the work that we do if you
radically campus or health center and the need to grab people as they're going in quick week to reach back out to them once they have registered as well clear prod the those of require testing and partnership and to say at all wrapped up with that the debate is special that our electorate is your own and these challenges are unique and we welcome that fought partnership that will be required to make an impact on this community in the example i like to use just like the first person to go to college needs a lot of counseling and mentor shepherd that is why the work is important and the work of the sister organization.
>> i want to kickoff this discussion with the overall theme of the motivation and enthusiasm of the latino vote. fit if we remember the last great drive for voter registration if i am correct , 2006 and 2008. as a result of the sensenbrenner bill in congress that attempted to criminalize the status of the undocumented for immigrants in the state's he may remember those huge margins in many cities las angeles and even here that
translated into an enormous voting of registration become a citizen drive to what is lacking right now? we have been covering this issue their rhetoric is there more than a year. many of the efforts to register voters cast guarded tightly enough as in previous election cycles. so maybe there's not enough investment blacks for talk about having action for hispanic heritage month but are we too late? what is going on quick. >> pdf. >> i would say much like the rest of the american electorate something that is
unique to wait until this late to pay attention or to register and handle we are looking at i cannot give the exact numbers but if we were to examine participation rates january through june compared through 2012 there has been an uptick. and i project once again. redo work every single year. and it is constant creating those moments that would have spent a recognizable.
and with calls to action on top of them. >> i think those that our eligible it is almost as big as those that are voting. there's a number of things that are contributing to that that we as of country cannot put a lot of weight that those citizens are registered. with the coming of age we see those gaps. but the silver lining is we
are getting creative to figure out how to have that access. but n2006 and the years that you referred to there are three vectors converging and won the citizenship. also significant number of people that our ready eligible to become senate -- citizens. it was going to be raised exponentially. and with that anti-rhetoric at the time and that access to voter registration coming together so those three things came to get there right now there is a lot of
work but it is small in comparison so that is what is happening of. [inaudible] please identify yourself and your organization. >> i am with the hill. i want you to go into the future so apart from the demographics what were the three main factors that led to the latinos becoming a political force? looking to the future and to counteract that growth in the future. did you don't see those politicians in indiana.
and going after the ukrainian vote. >> as you become an important part is in large part because of numbers but actual contest when they were decisive look at 2012 if you take out the latino elector it in colorado and california the republican candidate would have one so they do get attention but it there are many other races. but what helped make them more naturally visible is at one point both parties are vying for their votes with the increasing number of
candidates and not always the profile as well as far as the national media narrative so we don't share a border with germany it was never part of america that used to be mexico so there are things that we are inextricably tied particular with mexico or puerto rico is also a place where we have a long relationship. with third-generation latinos and then if you can
play defense. depending on their heritage they may not be thinking about it allot but if i don't let that go them probably will be defensive and pick up on thank you. i don't foresee that happening with a latino population. also because of the shared border. there are others but i will stop there. >> i know you don't want to seem that you are too partisan but one can only wonder to get that hispanic vote when this of personality for immigration
and what that was like with the decisions and what is obama doing for hispanics? >> i would push back on the notion doing badly. but really that is pretty good you are talking about election day we still have i expect it goes up. because you only have a two-party vote did not scenario and those who said they would not go and the other issue in is asking people about their enthusiasm that they are less enthusiastic to say it
is not about where obama was but and he had already announced right before and right after and then doesn't have that benefit but then to become very unpopular incumbent but if you recall if two-thirds of latino voters he won almost all of the primaries 65% of the hispanic vote and adding on to that later but there isn't evidence she was trailing far behind to suggest measurably different >> maybe indirectly is a
rapid non-partisan that this community benefit frankly the electors across the country would benefit when both are equally and aggressively and one of the comments is if they continue on this road. scheerer. but if neither side has sealed the deal with that outreach and how consistent going forward. so little in the back step by wednesday and everybody -- i would like to say everybody talks about the elections but if you look at the boat performance with the governorship you will
see latinos have long exhibited a sweeping nature to their vote based on all reach assistance you see a lot of examples of that that was by what the parties were doing starting to see a deeper embrace with anti-immigrant and anti- latino rhetoric. >> if you started with a real clear politics with that enthusiasm can be reached, we are surprised
fed hasn't done much but i am struck by what he said actual registration citi to do stuff that the local level because you are a specific voter for the group . with the senatorial committee democrats hillary clinton in campaign and but they have done our there 60% that they have not then communicated? are there any better or worse? for there is such an opportunity with key states like virginia more than 50% i am just amazed to hear you say those registration efforts are so weak.
have any done better than others. >> the one thing i was saying is we don't coordinate with those folks and lately we have been hearing got clinton campaign and this is of perfect example like we have been saying for years. and it was then one of the slides. alleys to name national contest is not the battleground california or texas and things are shaking up and texas.
with those congressional candidates or those running at the more local level for our reach. this party is just simply abandon those states sometimes. but the others is that if you look at the state's with latinos are growing fastest fastest, because their numbers are several small and the tendency of campaigns if i were a political consultant that five or 10% cable might hit the population and less of margin is razor-thin which means it comes very late.