tv JFK and the Reagan Revolution CSPAN October 22, 2016 8:00am-9:01am EDT
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he is the associate professor and chair of the department of history of the santa hughes state university. so thrilled and so honored to have you here. that makes it so special so please join me in welcoming larry and brian. thank you. [applause]. thank you for covering asked. us. we appreciate it very much. i'm a local. when they started organizing
this think. >> this one doesn't sound great we will do what we can. when we finally got this thing written and published it's good to have a couple of local bookstores were going to do a bunch of these around the country. this is my pro- co-author and great friend. a senior associated. a longtime friend of mine. going on. he is a harper trained historian.
it is really the glue that held at this entire bucket together. i want to do is just read a few experts from -- ups syrups from this thing. then we will enjoy some wine and cheese or whatever's out there. the -underscore to today's piece return to jfk rising tide model and then underneath it says kennedy and freight reagan both head bipartisan tax cuts and that's just what is needed now. you may disagree with me. i've been in it for a long time. with tv and radio.
i'm used to that also. but really the essence of this book 20 years later ronald reagan as well as a sound dollar to revive those economies. it's not something from the 18th century or the 15th century it something from recent times. under republicans and democrats poor economic growth. and that's one of the points they make. you want to draw whatever conclusions but i'm telling you here it was not to write a politicized book.
but to just raise history we can learn a lot. and one of the great things about history is when you forget history that john f. kennedy i would argue was the greatest democratic politician and the last 50 or 60 years was in fact the first supply fighter. you have to go all the way back to the 1920s that was a long time ago. kennedy was responding to very poor economic growth during the eisenhower years where there was three recessions and having one by a cat's whisker in 1960 that if he didn't produce growth in fact he talked about 5% growth during the campaign there were three
recessions during the eisenhower years. fortunately we have a model to follow as we seek to return our nest nation to economic growth. in the two areas of economic policy. fiscal and monetary policy. both kennedy and reagan identify income tax rates and in getting the dollar strong and stable as the specific policy that would let the private sector which is to say the real economy thrive. reagan was a tax cutter.
i came to end. in the first years of his presidency. some of us are even aware that bill clinton used some of that model to foster prosperity in the decade after ronald reagan. we think it's part of the mix. it's what the subject of this book is about. they not only used but largely pioneered the exact same model. he came to office during appear at of time in which growth was just a little better than today. one of the greatest and longest economic booms in history.
it was by the way 5% growth per year 1962 and when they ran out of gas and policies changed in 1969. if americans had known this history we probably would have tried that years ago. we would've traded stagnation for expansion just as we did in the 20th century. this history has been obscured. today's liberals they are shockingly far white policies. they could only work in the dream world but it was democrat kennedy who launched those policies. that by itself is a great backdoor of this book.
just a couple of quotes we were recording along radio interview and he actually found tape with kennedy's boss of a great famous speech that kennedy made in december of 1962. a very famous speech which was the breakthrough of his new policies. and they raise the revenue and long room. only for employment can we we balance a budget. to achieve the more prosperous expanding economy.
let me turn the clock forward in this history. ronald reagan comes into office. he announced he was seeking the ten-ten-ten-ten across the board. so we skip over two decades. now here is reagan. the government would lose revenue and it gained revenue as the reality. they made quite a sizable financial error. the line about it was was a
rising tide lifts all boats. that is reagan and almost the identical words of john f. kennedy. let me just read you something. is not between tax reduction on the one hand and the avoidance of large budgets on the other the economy is stifled by restrictive tax rates well never produce enough revenues to balance a budget. john f. kennedy said the back of 1962 when he was asking for a tax decrease. i cut tax rates across the board. and he was proven right.
before the is kennedy. i just want to say this for the umpteenth time. as the under heading in this morning's paper for us kennedy and reagan both spurred growth that is just what we need now. [applause]. it's become something of a career among our critics to blame reagan and blame me. hulen people who well contribute to the story. go on and play. but for heaven sakes get your facts right. he started. and great fashion and
unfortunately he was tragically assessment that went into place it succeeded it succeeded again and all i want to say is we have an election here. the book is not about the election. but whoever something needs to form a bipartisan coalition and reach across the aisle as kennedy did in reagan did on the top economic advisor was a republican step yelling stop cursing stop snarking. just look at the facts and read some history and you can see there is a way out of the slump that america unfortunately finds itself in. that is our message.
really sure why the argument have attraction so we really wanted to identify the really important role. and what i would like to do is read you a presidential memo. when kennedy actually turned on his advisers this turns out to be really important. nifty lucid if the lucid money you have to get off the gold standard only a temporary tax cut you've got to do it. he told them about the book.
any significant annotation in a clear-cut simple package with consensus on these points. it should be a permanent and reformed character production centered on lower bracket would be regarded as fiscally loose although some action in the sector would be understandable. >> a deficit should be sent as a tax reform. it is also very important that they be financed out of current savings as opposed to federal reserve. >> of the the government should be declared as allowing interest rates to rise.
and kennedy took every point in the advice. i can do the spending and when to stop the monetary looseness. the highest rates in the tax code. they might read one more passage. why was it for sagan. why wasn't it the policy all the way through. why did we have a stagflation? one of the reasons we did have it in the 1970s is that the opponents became president in
1969 and they made sure that he didn't do the policy. it goes out with the gold standard. in the regulation and spending here is an interpretive passage that we write about the 1960s and 70s. the assassination of 1963 and provided an enormous short-term base to the cause of the tax cut. it was fatal to it in the long term. out of respect for the state -- slain leader. and once that was enacted all leverage was lost.
the tone that kennedy brought when they were thinking through the real economic tax cuts. the supreme social standing and the native ambition that kennedy possessed that compelled him to solve the problem of his day the reason and credibility behind that and the tax cut through. with kennedy gone the mechanism of the tax cut that have kept the logic scene was gone too. no matter the phenomenal quality of the prosperity and had unleashed. so in other words it didn't take johnson long to undo the
best policy he was associated with. and for a lot of different reasons relating to the war in politics he raise tax rates. and then began to unhinged the dollar. this is a bipartisan nonpartisan book. when he was out of office in downtown we don't think much of the economics do you me. >> know we really don't. they raised taxes and unleash the dollar for any other monetary discipline again, the democrat and republican had
gotten it right. and now the question is how is a balance can wind up. my crystal ball is no better than yours. the other point a very wealthy banker. it was among the whitest of the whitest. >> he have just about as much money as a joe kennedy and john f. kennedy and traveled in very high social circles. kennedy could not steer him down. he have to listen when dylan spoke. at that that was pretty good. sometimes you have to be able to make people listen to you whatever it takes.
in this case it was money and social standing. me i would take it any way i could get it. good policy is good policy. i just want america to coin a phrase to begin moving again. we've less than 2% growth over a couple of decades. back to three or 4% growth historically. organ had to take strong actions particularly on business tax cuts to grow the economy at five or 6% for several years in order to get us back on track. kennedy and reagan showed proof that it can be done. now since i'd love america i believe we can get it done. we will see. that's really her story. happy to take your questions. even your criticisms. >> thank you.
i have never associated kennedy's time with carlisle. i was listening to an interview with the scholar. and there's a book out about the decline of people participating in the workforce. working age who are out of the labor force. i wonder if this development that he argues is very significant weather that would in any way limit the effectiveness. >> there probably two key issues here. one is a lack of economic growth. if you want to create jobs growth. >> lower budget deficits, growth.
you want to employ more people grow. there's other issues that they raised in the federal policies regarding small entitlements and other regulations and they had been a disincentive to work. that's too bad. we want to get everybody to work. i saw the same argument today. the federal reserve board. the 25 to 54% that they have gone down. were not growing. if you want to see the reason why they're cranky.
a lot of it is about growth. i always believed in alan greenspan and his theories about control how come and looked it looked as if it was working. he's a personal friend of mine. they gave an interesting talk in 2002 i believe it was to the pitch in which he said with all the surpluses we been running in the late '90s.
there's not enough government debt for them to continue their open market operations. it was getting that fast. i certainly remember visiting them in 2008 early. there's so much crash. no one was begging any money. live another 50 year lease on life. i think one of the other benefits a big time constant i% academic growth is you clear out some of the non- real entities. these things should trouble
into non- existence in the it's a happy prosperity. >> allen is a friend of mine. i think he is a superb federal reserve chairman. he served four terms. i don't think anyone else has done that. when he made his statement and was a statement about the ability and the markets to function properly at all times and a lot of people claimed it was a financial meltdown on ultra low interest rates the alan was partly responsible for. i think he made mistakes but i think he testified in front of millions and said the markets didn't work the way we thought they would. i think he's gaining his legs more and realizes that government regulation played a
huge role. i don't want to go deeper on that because it's not our subject i was a free market guy. >> tpt pacific trade is a good idea but has not is not been done out properly. as a good idea. i'm a free trader. and will remain so high think the politics are very good and bringing them in closer to the fold. and serving as a buffer or a warning to china depending on
how you want to put it. and it will lower trade values among these countries which we need which is good for growth there are some problems in their where a couple of international boards that will not reflect the american electric or so forth that will be used to decide issues and conflicts i'm sick of international boards. i want an american board i don't want to be governed by world courts. i'm sure they're good for employment. i'm sick of the thousand economists. i love brexit. i was so much in favor of that.
i caught at 2.0. it has a wonderful legacy. i love britain. i love what they just did. parliament represented democracy. freedom equals growth. i'm for free trade to be governed properly. what do you think of the uk leaving the european union collects. >> i'm in favor of it. i came to work at wall street under the which replaced truman's poodle. and i think that is a fair thing to say.
and then if my memory serves me right. would you contrast would you care to contrast the era of mcchesney martin and the public posturing and statements in comparison to the letter date shall of the board of governors as a way they conduct themselves in this day and age. there is a difference. >> i will say something about that. it's clear that they're trying to do a good job in the 50s he really had trouble. the famous comment that's because we had 91%.
the fed have to be extra vigilant and in that context the united states is using $2 billion of its gold every night. so when kennedy reappointed martin martin was ready to write his interest rates in the context growth that was inspired . i have listened to some telephone conversations that the fed have they then got towards lbj. he really kind of folded. can you transfer a balance to me the chair was trying to be obliging towards a president he served. and that's why he served under kennedy. >> carter appointed walker.
i've written about that. it does more harm than good. when i was a child i worked at the federal reserve and actually worked there. they would not put up with it. they did it right. reagan said do whatever it takes to get rid of the inflation. i don't agree with one of the candidates. it makes a lot of mistakes.
we often see the world the wrong way. he cut tax rates. open the doors to trade. >> that would be the old normal and today's normal is 25 fed funds and we are debating today whether we go in september or december and moving up to 50. if we had five to 6% growth when it we be going back to the old normal and would be talking about 350 so higher rates or can impact the outlook and how do you see that plane out. >> know. the business tax rates.
it goes without any manipulation. we will let that happen. in the 80s and 90s. let's take the ten years about 6%. the reason rates are low today is because the economy is terrible. those are the biggest reasons why we have low rates. the fed doesn't control those rates. they just don't understand that.
the healthy economy has have a five or 6% interest rate. it would be a good thing we have to cut taxes first. she is a conservative. she's a liberal, she's a democrat she's is what i agree with. wait until you cut tax rates. and then let them go up normally and it will be great. everybody would be happy. america is not happy now. part of the reason we quit this book. i wanted them to be in a good mood. i mean it. if you didn't have any wage hikes for 15 years you would get a bad note too. i get that. if you look at the actual statistics in the manhattan institute that got a lot of work on it. the top 1% today all and
market income is right where it was about the year 2000, 2005. he got smashed during the downturn. i didn't want to do while on that. it would make people happier. and you'll had less crime and more job opportunities. you can figure out a way to do immigration without telling people. in many ways the debate today is putting the cart before the horse. the horse is the growth rate that will pull everything out. this is not small potatoes. real lives are at stake.
my friend arthur said he's a kennedy democrat and a reagan republican. i will buy that. >> from an economic point can you talk about how it relates to this. i'm guilty of this for about 25 years. i don't know if we have to go back to the gold reference point anymore. i would personally prefer what might friends did and heller from san francisco in greenspan. they could use a market back it up -- basket of commodities. and as judging the value of the dollar. the inflation is rising and tells it you have to do something.
if it's falling you should probably loosen it. that's what i would use. i'm an old gold guy. nowadays you probably had to make the basket a little larger. whenever you had can have balance of payment transfers in gold. with the open market operations. the used to move a gold from one country to another. >> try to make you both happy and give you each a magic wand and three pics a policy actions you think you would implement right now with immigration. the capital gain or whatever
what would be the three things that you would wish for. we always talk about the five pillars of economics you don't actually need to worry about spending it will naturally fall with tax rates and had real regulatory it would be so great people would just jump off of welfare. they would just go into the real economy. like it really did in the 1990s.
it's the shared gdp deficit that comes down. each point of growth but you know all of this. my view is the single most important thing to do is to/business tax rates for large and small companies. 15% is a very good number. you might get 20 some. the single best thing we can do. i think also obama care must be repealed and rewritten. it turns out that it's costing jobs. i don't want it lose the free trade. i understand deals must be
enforced. robert and i worked together for many years. america should have the freedom to purchase the best quality gets at the lowest available prices anywhere around the world. i believe that. i'm never gonna give up on that. is second move me on that. >> do you believe that inequality we should let run
raven bed. >> i would let growth it only happens when the economy is sour . first of all we all must start at the same line. we must all be treated equal under the law. we must all had equal opportunity. but in a free economy or free country we don't all and at the same place. some will do better than others. it's a good thing that about the in my opinion they may
i'm fine with that. i have no problem with that. and that is why i'm open to the free market capitalism. >> can you talk a little bit about the coolidge tax cuts and was not effective with kennedy. was that a precedent that he used. and second are you aware of any situation either in the u.s. or foreign countries in which you feel the tax cuts were not effective with the growth. is there any contrary precedent. >> about the coolidge tax cuts they went up 11 fold during world war i and by 1920 james grant has written about this. in his great book. by 1920 there essentially was
investment strike in this country there was no investment to be measured in housing and growth. among any other categories. while municipal bonds or selling like crazy because they were exempt from taxation. there was this big portfolio shift of the nation's capital. out of the economy so under the guidance who is reading the memos of the three democratic predecessors they all said we created a monster. we have to cut tax rates. the democrats are very beholden to their position. and then there was a series of cuts. and kennedy refute referred to that. they said we don't want to do that because it was the great depression of the 1930s. it's like tax cuts that don't work there is a case of
foreign countries that are really tossed by their exchange rate to the dollar. at the dollar goes like this all the time and they have a currency board or they're trying to make a brave monetary policy it can really neutralize the effect. certain countries in eastern europe. but investment just doesn't move in the right direction because there's no guidance from the leader of world monetary policy in the united states. >> walter gave a speech about this year to a year and half ago. and said we have to move back to a rural based monetary policy. that is a commodity basket idea and the international currency cooperation. it's very important. we have neither. and they just had a g20 meeting there was no headline
coming at it. and i want to get into that. the depressing issue for the 20 was currency. we were having currency wars breaking out. we as guilty as anybody. and that is what they're referring to. in the old days he would sit down and hammer out agreements one of those agreements lasted half a century or so. we didn't do that. >> with the artificial intelligence and the productivity how does it affect all middle-class jobs?
>> i think the only way we will know that the economy is incapable of creating a lot of jobs is if we have very low tax rates and really strong currency and a little regulation until we get the circumstances we should not look for other causes of our unemployment problems. i fully expect there to be an abundance of jobs with the full technological revolution. >> there's an argument floating around about this. i don't like it. the basic argument is the advanced high-technology breakthroughs along with the automation that goes along with that are not necessarily bad for the economy and jobs. here's a case where they should look back at history every time we've had races in the country.
getting rich with steven jobs. if you go to washington give nothing in commerce city and now it probably has more millionaires per capita than anywhere in the world. a few high-tech companies did really well. you may get passes of this but they're not can take over the world. give us academic freedom and great things will happen. i get to spend on it. this is great things. same as political freedom. same as political freedom. you are very kind to come. work and assigned working to sign some books for you.
the presidential candidate hillary clinton and donald trump had written several books many of which outline their worldview and their political philosophy. democratic candidate hillary clinton has written five books in her most recent title hard choices she remembers her 2008 presidential campaign enter time as secretary of state and the obama administration. but tv spoke with secretary clinton about the book and you can find the interview on her website. published in 2003 living history is the account of the time at first lady. she released a children's book about letters written to her family pets and also authored a coffee-table coffee table book about life as first lady.
and in her first book it takes a village she argues society that society shows shares of the responsibility with parents for raising children. republican presidential candidate donald trump has also written many books his first several titles released in the 1980s and 90s and early 2000 he released several financial books. he writes about politics and outlined his vision for american prosperity. several of these books have been discussed on book tv a book tv and you can find them on our website. how they do it. you have a reporter from bloomington indiana they really went out of their way.
that was basically allowing them to choose how you want to run your business. there are limitations. you're actively engaging in discrimination. if you are sincerely professing your face insane on this one i don't want to give you my artistic skill or my labor or my expression then that's understandable. it actually went on their way. a tiny small town. she thought here it is. and walked inside the daughter of the proprietor was at the cash register that day.
and she asked her would you cater a gay wedding and the weird thing is there was no actual service done no money was exchanged or anything like that. and chris said we serve customers every day. but the act of a wedding ceremony goes against what we believe as christians who probably what it part to does in that. can i buy some fudge rounds and stack them up for a wedding cake it's weird they went to a pizza shop. i have gay friends and family members. we would never cater a wedding with pizza did these people not understand our neighbors through a block party in st. louis and they have a bottle service. no one's can a cater at their
wedding that became a big story in this restaurant was all the sudden they were at the center of all of this demanding debate. they have to close up shop. they were getting death threats. it was maddening because not only was it something that never actually happened this is more than an issue of whether or not you are serving a cake at a gay wedding or photographing a gay wedding. take that variable out of it. it's about who owns your labor. can the government say you don't get to determent how you work we do. it's about association.
we arty had had supreme court decisions on this. the thing about it is you're talking about indigent service there. when you move all of that. this is about indentured servant had. they realize what path they are being led down. and that is a scary thing about it. and the fact that you have a reporter that went to the small town and sought someone out to prove a narrative that she was building that's exactly why people have just had it. >> you can watch this and other programs online at book tv.org.