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tv   Charlie Cook and Amy Walter Discuss Campaign 2016  CSPAN  October 27, 2016 3:28am-5:08am EDT

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you buying stuff. >> ballot an update on the 2016 campaign with predictions about the presidential and congressional races. political analyst charlie cook
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and amy walter of the political reports spoke of the aspen institute here in washington, d.c.. it's about one hour and 40 minutes. >> there are days i wish i was over why six. invited by the secretary of state to join him at the university of chicago he is right now interviewing the secretary of state do so kind to step in and help us, thank you very much. this is an interesting season we find ourselves in and i was at my desk kind of scrambling some words to a large foundation justifying their support of the aspen institute. so about 65, 66 years ago a group of individuals came together and have an idea and it was to create a safe space so that people of different backgrounds and political ideologies and philosophies could come together to talk about the most important issues of society that impacted our
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making of the good society and in pursuit of finding the most viable solution to the complex issues. so up against this backdrop we find ourselves in now with a lot of noise coming above unenlightened dialogue and a lot of fussing, the aspen institute continues to provide a haven for us to have important conversations so i think we are living into our mission and we will have a lot of work to do in bringing people together in the future and the issues that are not being addressed and i think a very important way to start a conversation or to continue is to introduce the panel here today. we have three of the foremost american experts on the political system and the electoral system. molly from the atlantic will introduce the panelists. thank you so much for joining us. [applause]
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>> thanks everyone for being here. i also am not walter isaacson and i'm delightebut i'm delights conversation today. prognostic features with the political reporter will tell you everything you need to know about politics at any given time, so i am an obsessive reader and i'm looking forward to this conversation so let's start with the big question is the presidential election over and why or why not. >> it's pretty much over. there is a possibility something dramatic had happened in the next few days. it's not probable in the same way that an earthquake or a meteor could hit at any moment. i think that we are looking now
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at the very beginning and i will let charlie get into why. at the beginning of the race will get what wlook at what we g by picking donald trump what republicans will decide to do is to double down and trickle-down on the sort of pre- 2013 and analysis which says we can't continue to only talk to one group of voters. we need to expand our dialogue included in the coalition. we need more women to support us and we need more millennial supporting us and they chose the nominee who has a disapproval rate between 75 to 85%.
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but he did something else which was unique and not anything that the autopsy would have suggested is to split the coalition itse itself. so it's one thing to say we are going to win in the coalition and hope hillary clinton can't get the coalition but to say that they've alienated the coalition with this lack of success with traditional white collar voters in the country only further narrowed the path and that's why we shouldn't be that surprised because he's decided the beginning of the
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campaign that speaks to the people in the rallies and that has been his mo the entire time. he absolutely wants to win but he wants to win it in a certain way and that is the way he runs it and it gives you a good 40% of the vote. >> no better illustration of trump alienating the coalition and the fact that there's a couple different scenarios. one school of thought says they lost the minute they nominated
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donald trump and another says actually, donald trump brand of such an undisciplined campaign and he didn't behave himsel thes in a manner that would have made him more palatable. do you think someone tha that st could have won this election? >> i was thinking yesterday bo both. i think in retrospect, republicans were not going to dominate this year a conventional establishment. jeb bush could have had a different last name and twice as much money, marco rubio, john kasich, even chris christie. i thought the last time you and i were on something i thought in the end they would go towards
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ted cruz. they were going to come down to an angry outsider and i thought the establishment hated ted cruz and with the perceived as the more acceptable or the least unacceptable of being greedy outsiders and obviously was proven wrong. but if republicans had nominated crews i think that he would be dead even right now. if it was a referendum she would lose. then you have ten points higher, you lose unless he wer we were p against somebody would say 22 or 23 points higher. i think that we will look back at the first combination of the first debate on september 26 and
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the billy bush and trump tapes coming out is sort of the defining point where before that time, the numbers could go anywhere from as close as i'm not entirely sure that it was ever dead but by just one or two all the way up to six, seven, eight but it always seemed to go back into the three to five and that seemed to be the default setting and that is the competitive race where clinton probably would have won but it was competitive and since then i think trump has aggravated his campaign and a situation that was just barely winnable before. so, both of these things i
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think. >> what do you see the final margin being and does it matter? i already hear democrats and republicans alike are giving for a landslide scenario to serve as a repudiation of both trump represents and others saying a close margin will show hillary clinton doesn't have a mandate to govern. what do you think of that? >> the numbers i'm going to be looking for in the exit polls is favorable and unfavorable and it's been somewhat remarkable that despite all of donald trump's problems and the fact that now she's ahead by double digits, the numbers haven't really moved very much. she has gone up a little bit maybe four or five points but whether people feel optimistic or pessimistic about her that is another interesting from "the
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wall street journal" poll that came out most recently where they asked what this person is president to you bill optimistic with them or pessimistic and an overwhelming majority still say pessimistic so that's where the margin doesn't matter and people say i'm still pessimistic about her ability to get things done and i'm also pessimistic about the cheapening factor that republicans will look at a blowout scenario, they lose the senate, the house gets close, she wins 365, 75 electoral votes and they say that was terrible i guess we should do things terribly different this time around. next time around. i still think the incentive structure was in the legislative body and it promotes
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confrontation and not coalition building, and that's not going to get any better. >> if the margin is less than five points, i will be surprised. i am not a big mandate person, but if it's under five, i think that will be very troubling for her. someone looking at the margin would look at how many states she wins and all that but i kind of think ten years from now it's kind of like the oldest saying about who on their deathbed ever said i wish i spent more time at the office. and i don't think two or three years from now she's going to look back and say i wish we had gone and tried to win an extra couple states. i think instead she's going to say i wish we had gone the extra senate seat or two.
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that will be helpful the next couple of years is to try to build up some little bit of margin in the senate house or takeover to the extent there is an extra seat or two. i think that would be a lot more important to her long-term legacy and adding an extra point on the scoreboarpoints on the sn extra state or two. i would have to go back and look at how many states did ronald reagan by them and who remembers this stuff other than the 49 states for nixon in 72 and reagan in 84. if it's not 49 i don't really remember. to me that is more academic. >> we will talk about the senate map in a minute and it does seem to learn he is doing that now. she was in pennsylvania on saturday, north carolina on some
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day, new hampshire on monday. those are all battleground states that have competitive senate races. she's been in florida where whee there is also potentially a competitive senate race but i want to stay on the presidential for just a minute. what do you see as the most interesting of the battleground states. are there any unlikely battleground states that you think could surprise us in either direction either in the states that mitt romney lost with trump might still win or vice versa? >> i don't think we would have guessed that iowa would be almost securely in the republican column but we know why. it's a state with very few minorities and while it is a state with a high percentage of high school graduates, and a relatively low percentage of
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graduates if you were going to do a model or formula you look at once the percentage in the state has a very highly productive way of looking at this much more than in the past years so that's not one i would have guessed four years ago but now i understand it completely. >> that's a very good one. the fact we are talking about utah is fascinating, too. if you've been looking at the polling he kind of graft onto this early in a very seasoned where he had some challenges was in the very republican but
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conservative areas that were deep, dark red, what did he call them, he had like high and low, education and public propensity, higher income, higher religious attachment. and that's why the margin is good to be interesting not because you can lose iowa and still get a bigger% of the vote than obama did. having a rick perry mounted there. [laughter] she's going to underperform in places like idaho and utah and south dakota and texas so you will see two things, you will see blue states where obama did
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well wha when he told his own in places like iowa or the iron range in minnesota or the upper peninsula in michigan where trump will do much better, and yet he will do worse than romney and some of these states. hillary clinton and on in one oe more interesting discussions that as you pointed out she's out there campaigning for the senate seat, montana is to be a competitive states not that long ago and they've won the house district tha but that tells you about their worry that trump is dragging down even those sorts of traditionally very big red states. >> he would see fewer reporters than anywhere else. [laughter]
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>> you mentioned my colleague, ron brownstein, and one of the things he's talked about in looking at this cycle is that places in the upper midwest may in fact be more republican now than they were even as places in the sun belt and places like arizona, colorado, new mexico, the sun belt gets more democratic because of these demographics but also suggest the appeal does have an upside. you do gain something by those working-class voters and negative because of the population is trending. do you agree with that? this is translated in the house but says for republicans is he a liability or not, it depends what kind of district you have if you have an upscale suburban
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district than trump is definitely a problem but if you have a vote o thought of workins whites in your district, he could be an asset and you just have to look beneath the surface and say stay with us but with a lot of minorities that's where he will have bigger problems if it's rust belt but not belt buf african-americans or latinos. >> do you wonder where this goes and how much of it is about the broad and deeper trends and buzz study that came out a couple of weeks ago looked at how the voters of different demographic groups had been identifying the party the last 20 years into the shift from white working class which in 1992 they were evenly divided democrat and republican and the shift between 2008 and 2015 has been dramatic.
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this is holding the obama era and the shift shifted but it's now about one point more democratione point moredemocrath slower, so i talked to a lot of democrats about this and their concern is that it will be important but they are going to go back to their natural resting place which is the republican party and democrats are going to struggle with the voters that lost him completely. they can't really feel that they got the white college voters in the way the working class republicans. they still could win congressional elections and they've got to find a way to maximize the turnout among those that don't traditionally turn
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out. when secretary clinton made her remark about the basketful of the the d. portables, the last part she said is the other half of the vote comin, and she talkd about people that were economically left behind or politically alienated and she concluded that i saying these are people we need to understand and people we need to talk to. one of the things i would be looking for in her victory speech is talking to the second half of the voters and these
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people that feel like they've been economically or politically looked behind because this has been a horrific campaign and i was shoveling through my notes that such giant mea giants meet6 just end it already. it has been such a horrible election and whoever wins this is going to try to pull the country back together and it's s going to have to try to govern in some pretty tough times with some pretty rough dynamics. i think hillary clinton's top will be the second worst in town and then paul ryan. >> my favorite says why vote for
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the lesser evil. how much of that sort of attempted reconciliation bringing fans on board can hillary get away with given that we have also seen a much more active and vocal left-wing of the democratic party and a very mobilized racial justice movement that doesn't want to see the two parties that see their main job as the tender feelings of white people. is she going to be able to make that job number one when there are those that are making demands on her what do you think? >> when she came in and she talks a lot about her time in the senate and she worked across party lines and that is true if you talk to republicans who were working with her and her staff they felt she was easy to work
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with and enjoyed a relationship witgoodrelationship with her bus think back to what the senate looked like. you have democratic senators from georgia, you had chafee, jefferson vermont comes up to republicans in new england, you had one of which, you had what's his name in oregon, so there were plenty of moderate republicans and conservative southern democrats, you had john breaux and mary landrieu in louisiana so there were people to compromise with. there's nobody left to compromise with. those people are all gone so that is much of a challenge and isn't quite so i have to go through the tender feelings of these people, but there are even those people that would be willing to come on board and that's what i think is the biggest challenge going forward for everybody from paul ryan to
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the senate to clinton, you may want to cut deals and get stuff done but it's the famous line that a leader without followers is just a man taking a walk. [laughter] a lot of folks will be walking around capitol hill by themselves. [laughter] that brings us to the senate. a lot of the remaining hopes are on the ticket splitters at this point could have been the ticket splitting people have become so partisan. do you see it making a comeback? >> we will see more because of the weird mix of this year. you've got such polarizing nominees on each side but there are people who are normally pretty democratic who don't like hillary clinton and god knows
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there are plenty of republicans that don't like donald trump, so i think there may be a little more ticket splitting i don't think that it is a trend. it's an anomalous situation. i think it has taken a and uglir turn within republicans the last week or so and they are seeing enthusiasm levels of voters go down which can translate into fewer republicans making it through so you are seeing the democratic margins in a couple of races. our colleague pointed out that for years and years tha the sene seat has never split down, just evenly down the middle to one side generally when 75% of them
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and this time it looks like republicans could be on the worse end of that in now when you are looking at the last six senate races in the seat, for republican incumbents and kelly ayotte in new hampshire and pat toomey in pennsylvania, richard burr in north carolina and ray blunt in missouri along with the open seat in nevada along with those five i think you're going to see some cross pressured people and i think there is something to the argument of don't give hillary clinton a blank check that the question is how many republicans are just either going to stay home or just be so ticked off they will be skipping over the races. hispanic i can't remember if it was "the wall street journal" poll that said who do you think is going to win and by the way, later in the pull they said who
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do you think is going to win and that has proven to be more productive. it's now up to 68% of those that think hillary clinton is going to win and 41% of republicans so those are the people that say why bother. hispanic they choose not to be part of the coronation of someone they don't like. >> the report revised its forecast to take the its majority in the 5-7 seed and with the particular race was that the general landscape plaques >> they were looking increasingly tough for roy blunt, new hampshire, and alf was ahead by one, two, three, four and now she's kind of slid back a little bit.
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but also in a more general light of republicans, consultants seeing numbers suddenly that they had hoped they wouldn't see and they started seeing a and you saw what was it, the american crossroads dropping 25 million more. it's gone to desk on one. it really has. >> you mentioned before the die off of the dinosaurs, the moderates in the senate. >> we've got some in this room. [laughter] they are just resting is that right. [laughter] >> i wonder does it even matter
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given that you need 60 votes to do most, does that enter a big difference in terms of policy? >> it is a big difference in terms of being able to theoretically have an agenda to put things on the table and control the message in a way that if you have two groups in the house and the senate against you but if you talk to the voters they get the joke. their assumption is that in the hillary clinton presidency will it just be more of the same in the democratic congress and whitthewhite house it is going k a lot more like what we see today. it's just simply not there for compromise and it goes beyond
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the members themselves and what did it get you to compromise as the primary challenge and a difficulty raising money and you don't even get a bridge out of it anymore, you usually get something. >> it matters on budget reconciliation controlling the schedule, but the other thing is this is just sort of the fourth -- first activate three or four act play. let's say democrats only pick up four seats and its 50/50 and tim kane moves over to the vice presidency and breaks the tie
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presumably the governor will appoint congressman bobby scott and he's got to be up in november, 2017 the same time the governor's race is up. historically that's been bad for the party in the white house more often than not not the most recent times so you can see the senate kind of go back and then in 2018, you've got the midterm election and it would be if a democratic president so we kind of know how those tend to go and there are 25 democratic senate seats and republican senate seat comes with the asymmetrical risk would be for democrats, not republicans as it is this time so this mess could keep going. and one thing might mean that for the 15 or so -- i think a
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president clinton would have as bigger problems on the left as on the right and in some ways having the senate is 50/50 ip better than having a bunch of seats because it would be easier to say no to bernie sanders, elizabeth warren and some of these other people that i know what you want and what you would like to do and i would love to help you but the votes are not there. >> this could continue for a while it seems like a good mantra and a safe prediction. but barack obama always thought that the fever would break. at some point the people wanting to touch the hot stove getting burned would figure it out. if you say they still favor it and is there any chance a fever
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for policymaking breaks out and the first two years of the term invented by majorities in both houses but still by far the most productive years when he enacted most of his landmark legislation is there a chance hillary clinton gets backed? >> the first two years it was productive from his standpoint and the most destructive in terms of the presidency in a lot of ways. i think there are some things that may get slightly dysfunctional. i personally came here in september, 1972. the presidencies usually work better when you have a president willing to say sit down with members of congress or pick up the phone and call them without having an arm broken. we've gone seven and a half
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years with a president that hasn't liked to be around members of congress, doesn't like talking to them. can you blame him? >> it as a people business and if you don't like people you shouldn't have gotten into it. [laughter] i have a former democratic congressman friend that said, and i will clean up the language for c-span and the aspen institute of the problem is obama thinks politicians are lower than whale poop and he isn't one of them and he doesn't like being around them and if that's what your own site as sis saying, imagine how the other side must do without you. so i think when hillary clinton was in the senate, she had good relationships with members on both sides of the aisle and the second thing is watching the senate the last couple of years
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with the republican leader if i'm watching two scorpions in a bottle. the words despise and loathe severely understate. i think that chuck schumer is going to be the next democratic leader majority or minority, he's a partisan democrat and everyone in this room knows he's a bit of an acquired taste. i don't think there is any question he will have better relations with which mcconnell and republicans in the senate. i've always thought of schumer is a new york version of john breaux, al franken referred to him as a jewish lbj. i have a hard time getting my arms around that one. [laughter] but here is a guy that likes to
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do stuff and i think one of the top things she will lead with infrastructure and tax reform working closely with paul ryan and schumer and orrin hatch at the other thing is the affordable care act, it's not going to get repealed but it's going to be unrecognizable and total overhaul and i think having a president that doesn't have ownership of it is probably a good thing for a proprietary interest in seeing the product as one that should never be tampered with. the question is always how much of a proactive administration you have or reactive. if there is a war that breaks out, huge natural disaster, you have no control over that but a couple of things on the plate
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before anything proactive can happen, one is the supreme court assuming it doesn't get done so that's going to take up an amount of time and energy and the debt ceiling, again we are going to deal with the bat and the obamacare situation. that is all we talk about with the tax reform and restructuring all these other lovely things people like to do on top of the fact things around the world could get much worse than they are. another obstacle to any democratic president coming in would be the republican house particularly the republican house has had a lot of
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challenges. what did yo do you see as the pt for the house majority and then the second of all even if the party moves and does paul ryan keep his job? >> i thought for a long time be over and under with 13 seats. that's what republicans picked up over what had happened in the last presidential election. i think the chance of that going north of 1coming north of 13 isy good and could start pushing 1 15-20 and we start slicing the house pretty thin. i think what's important is which republicans lose or are coming back to the extent they are disproportionately established.
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that means they move to the right so the job gets more difficult and at the same time i might wonder whether some of the more exotic members of the people, whether at some point it's a basic you have a fourth-grade arithmetic might start sending in where they realize that this isn't going to get anything like what they wa want. then the scenario that scares the hell out of me is i've been thinking this for a while but a week ago friday, there was an interesting article on page two that pointed out this expansion as anemic as it is started in june of 2009 so we are in our 88th month of expansion and it
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is the fourth longest since they started keeping the records in 1850. we never had a recovery expansion go and i know that economists say expansions do not die of old age but i do suspect they get a little anemic after old-age and this is week with all of our major trading partners having challenges and the fed not having many arrows trying to drop interest rates beyond and the political system that's fairly dysfunctional so no matter who wins the presidency, the odds of recession in the last two to four years were pretty darn go good.
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>> you sort of sketched a scenario where the silver lining of the small house majority for the speaker could be that it puts the fear of god into the more exotic members and it is a double whammy for the speaker the smaller the majority and not only is it harder then to get them all on the same side of a vote foboat the more it is domiy these members who belong to the freedom caucus or are just afraid of a primary challenge with someone like that. we do already hear some rumblings about trying to depose the speaker. >> this has always been the challenge to the forces in congress always fair, very
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vocal. and i always ask the follow-up. who is it, maybe you? there's just no names. he's going to be replaced with a mysterious figure. [laughter] they like being antagonists. they don't want to be leaders, so that's different then having to factions that's normal. the bigger question is what happens to the caucus but we kind of call the vote no and pray yes they are voting no but they are notheyare not the realm caucus types. they are voting because they can get away with it and they don't want to rock the boat and get a primary and they don't want to have to explain why they are supporting the terrible awful leadership, but they know that it needs to get done and we
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can't havcanhave another governn or fiscal cliff. they are in a much tougher spot now because when you have five seats you can't hide. >> a lot of them have been caught in the middle because they do have to factions of twof their constituencies for the forcing them to choose sides. i was at a trump rally in the florida panhandle shortly after the billy bush tape came out, and most of the alabama delegation, we are closer than we were in miami by a long shot. i met a woman who said my congresswoman just endorsed trump and i sent her a letter for you have a lot of these people torn between the two who couldn't find a person with hamstrung by that.
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what does that mean going forward? >> he's going to need something to do after the first election. >> are you exposed i exposing ts committee, i don't know. unchartered territory. >> isn't unique to him and does he make any efforts to turn it against the leadership as he has been getting lately talking about paul ryan almost more than he talks about hillary clinton in his speeches and does he simply try to put it to commercial use or does it just die out? >> this is not a prediction because i'm skeptical about whether this will happen but the
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last four or five years we have seen a lot of conservative evangelicals lose heart and just sort of gradually lose interest in politics and become less engaged. there is a possibility that the tea party folks chase the car, the car wrecked, all kinds of metaphors, but maybe they start pulling back and more conventional republicans can take over. i say this with pretty wishful thinking but i don't think that is going to happen. but it is conceivable that this wasn't what was signed up for. >> when the car crashes, what happens to the dog, does he limpelimpaway and look for anotr
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figure maybe i should chase cars any more? speak this is broughthis is broe humane society. it suddenly becomes not as relevant because again it's whatever is the next thing. i don't think the trump thing is going away as soon as it's over. i think we may be so fascinated with it we ma this we may be ovg its duration. the republican party has been fractured for many years and it started long before and it isn't his fault in fact i would argue that started under george w. bush when he pushed through the prescription drug part d. medicare legislation iran are
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sitting with mike pence at the time furious about this. republicans don't expand entitlements. the no child left behind bill, i was so infuriated. the other fiscal conservatives were upset during the era of tom delay and dennis hastert and then after the iraq war started, the split within the party that gave you ron paul and the rise of libertarianism and then the tea party comes along which was in part obama does muc but us mt the frustrations of their own leadership and not stopping him from doing stuff. so this has been a fractured party for years and years and he's adding one more element. it's hard for a party out of the white house to find a center. that's the unique thing about
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the political system. it's not like the opposition leader. it's just amorphous and then you kind of get your act together. >> listening to the problems in the republican party and i agree with every one of them but i've always thought whenever you see a problem in one party, take a look over at the other side and there is a potential of the reality of that and i think you've got elizabeth warren, bernie sanders, and as far as they are concerned, the democratic party is owned by wall street and the big banks which is news to them because they are not getting value for their ownership but i think that it's now closer to sanders and warren van hillary clinton or joe biden so i would say look at
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all the horse show things going on in the republican party, and to some extent, it could be a preview of coming attractions for democrats. .. >> >> i think that these warm
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and fuzzy feelings towards hillary clinton that the backers have i think they have a shelf life of about two weeks. [laughter] but if you look around those who were already in the senate and then you throw it in russ feingold to come back and a fair chance we have never had the aclu person in the senate before with all kinds of interesting people that are coming in may be. >> i agree when you ask the democrats five haven't part of it is a fundamental distinction between the republican side rather democratic side. and that's the core of the freedom caucus it believes
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that government at its core is up problem so they will never want to blow up but the other thing that is also clear is the policy issues the democrats on social and cultural issues so they all agree immigration the marriage climate almost 100 percent agreement of the full constituency for says the republicans are all over the place. even if you look dappling on trade home negative polling
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but it is pushing the democrats are much more positive about trade and trade agreements and republicans. so you are right to fair are not those classic hot-button issues. of the recalcitrant republicans and electorate but clinton did win the primary but redding to the left of joe biden or her former boss. am by repudiating think what has been accomplished. and the crime bill with welfare reform. so to complete repudiate. >> what about to immigration is there any prospect of
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immigration legislation with a hot button'' >> coverage did a whole way from it for at least six months to say on infrastructure, a tax reform and health care if funds garlanded doesn't go through with the lame duck get him back on early. i would say if i was her i would try to stay the heck away with those polarizing issues and try not to do what happened in 2009. that was a model of what not to do. >> do republicans have an incentive? there was one after 2012. i sorvino republicans to
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wish they were in god and that on the table pdf. >> yes. eric cantor lost but if we don't do this now will only get worse. so there are more republican voters out there to go along with immigration. it was obviously a motivating issue is today in north carolina there republican leaning voters not every single one but what was the one issue about donald trump that really made you angry or turn you off?
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misses and a consensus view that immigration reform is terrible. there is a significant group of republican voters by getting that through is the challenge. i was having a conversation with the tv set during the last debate trying to be mischievous in assaying -- saying president baughman has deported millions illegal immigrants but then somebody said party saying that you agree with president obamacare? what is the conflict but nobody called him now. that was interesting to have his cake and eat it too.
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put the past and. >> and even with the majority of republican primary voters that there should be legalization we ought not to deport to everybody but of those supporters did not think they could or should build a wall. but yet there seems to be a cultural activation that we talked at his rallies to say idol think we should build a wall but when he is willing to talk about things like that that is gratifying. >> there are two different things that happened that if you tote the democratic party of the '80s and there was 80 percent of the conservatives out of the democratic party or the
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liberals of the republican party, that is what happens. if you took a 50% of those moderates who used to play the influential role on back roster. with the democratic leadership council does not exist anymore. and those that are not there or don't have much use. those that could be widely held.
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but with primary voters not so much. >> that is the other piece. >> that the party structure itself the party said we will not help you fund-raisers to make sure you don't have access to donors but now pick this up so the normal referees. but then made back to the incentive structures. with the incentive for the behavior. when the incentive is over
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votes then you will do that. that doesn't give me the year mark or a pact on the back. there is no reason to do this. >> one of the questions to ask the panel is while cars like arizona r-utah or texas the best case scenario you hear democrats talk about is this isn't just a one time affair but to cement that loyalty for example, without long-term effect and in the future they'll like to believe that trump is the anomaly in this dissipates
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after the 2016 election. that is even better for them with the of popularity but if there is long-term fallout. >> the question i wet asked who does a better job as a republican staunched of bleeding the gap is too big or permanent with non college educated white males. whoever does say better job to repair damage that will come out of this much better off.
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when i talk to republican leaders, and they are smart people and the autopsy from 2013 is 10 or 12 of the 17 candidates on the nomination. not from the ones that they did. and when eric cantor took a baby step and was decapitated for that. >> i don't know either. there is a flu witty and did north carolina with a lot of
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young people moving there. but the registration has ben overwhelmingly with the party. and they are doing that is the reason. note and with that party that is identified as certain policies that republicans continue to vote especially on social and cultural issues. there are a number of issues that they could find a home but in the past to grow what the voting for the coal board's -- the cohort that
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you usually listed with them. with this and -- with the obama kids. with eisenhower and others that are getting older and going through the pipeline. >> there is a political scientist who studies the difference in party loyalty between different generational courts -- cohorts but this effect actually happened before it is in power when you are about 15 to make an impression on you.
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but i wrote a piece recently on older voters that those loyal group to donald trott despite conventional wisdom that is actually even tyree's were the strongest supporters. and the campaign is at the nostalgia for make america great again, with the cultural revolts of the '60s. and also the only candidate to argue against entitlement reform. but the plane dove that being that they do tend to be long term because they have long memories carrying things for word. but the big question that i
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think is we have an american population that is increasingly partisan fewer in fewer voters to truly swing between the two parties with the loyalties to the democratic republican candidates and those of our the more ideological. in the way that was not the case 20 years ago but on the other hand people are less loyal to the institution they don't feel the g.o.p. represents some yang people have no use for the democratic party and consider themselves individual so i wonder about that collision if we are on course for some kind of disruption? with the institutions of the political parties?
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>> when you turn on uh television what channel d watch? i think there are a lot of white guys over 60 in the chair watching fox. and i know there are a lot of people who were conservative but four or five hours watching that. [laughter] and their views in search again a little more exotic i am sure rachel would do the same thing. i think you can see personality changes.
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>> i think we have already seen, it does tails to the question that the parties would be split up. but we have already had that. of that presidential nominee . he identifies on issues and attracting people that our republican fund with the republican establishment and bernie sanders was the same
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way on the left. and still is not a democrat but yet he will vote with the democrats and raise a lot of money without any help within the democratic establishment. instead of having a third-party it is the third party with did the two parties and the candidates will comment ago. >> when you ask your question wait for the microphone tell us who you are and ask a question without a speech. >> stakes for this wonderful conversation. we have not talked about, i
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interested to know what you are thinking on the subject to the extent that there is a datapoint corer a well-developed point of view from the time you have spent in the field. what these think the turnout factor will be in this election? if it is a determining factor than we could anticipate? where will that be the greatest impact at the congressional level? >> that question us was about turnout? watching the early eve voting numbers about 8 million have then cast.
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and increase of 20 or 30% those strong republican machines like the republican and early voters seem to be strong girl whiff iowa he has no campaign said he is relying upon them. but it does appear to be a balanced that the democratic constituencies are flocking to the early voting. i would not be surprised see a low turnout overall. but i think we're starting to see the disenchantment of high turnout election bonds. >> the answer prior to 3:00
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on september 30th whiff of believe bush case -- believe bush i thought turnout would be fairly normal because while you have fewer voters that our enthusiastic they were enthusiastically against one or the other and there were a lot of people that if they did not turn out against clinton or trout pond so i thought it would be fair leave normal. son to meet the danger where
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it starts to get more real. and what i would have been before. but be another thing it is a matter what is the highest in london soloist boat total for any office in a given state? because i do think people will skip over the live presidential or maybe vote presidential republican but are upset because their senator or their candidate did your did not disavow donald trump. you might see people hopscotch around the ballot a little bit. and little more towards the
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l lower. >> and then backing him up and not john mccain but then that would do john mccain but then nine donald trump. >> i there any heather types that there could be some help that the people are gone now? but they are really one team precision as an accomplishment. so they do face a huge rebellion coming otherwise. >> yes.
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it is an excellent question and a paradox if you ask them what the number one problem they don't get anything done. but at the same time charlies as written about this in of primary deity think they have compromised too much or too little? eighty-one% say they compromise too much. >> 59% in new hampshire 2% south carolina republican voters. >> we don't want them to get done but we don't want them to compromise. so our thinking is always slide. we will rationalize about everything that we do.
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i could have another cookie i would walk 20,000 steps. however you rationalize some be becoming more frustrated and more polarized than ever at the same time. so that peace with the desire to be on the winning side as compromising is losing isn't just in washington but the wave of world works these days. this isn't the only way that we break it with a real crisis moment like the great
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depression nor the world war , 9/11 was dramatic. it did not impact of betty equally. the other day a guy said and where he grew up in galveston. and you have to be friends with your neighbors. or the power was on and yours was not. we would not have spent friends otherwise. eudora need anybody. but it feels like it is a great way to think about where we are wont.
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>> 40 years ago people say it is better than the old days. but when i think of the last 10 or 25 years, the caliber of people whose retirement parties i have gone to has been a hell of a lot higher than swearing and in. with the big gold cap. but one month ago i was on the hill and what the hell? from jackson mississippi. barack died of his office for thinking like those who we used to see.
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and really with the effective number but name me nostalgic were relatively junior member for what used to be pretty common. and to be incredibly negative and invasive that the campaigns have something to do with the. terribly invasive media coverage what those reporters to play all the time it was combined in the lawsuit community that contributed to that place. but it was productive.
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>> >> i did not recognize you with the beard. >> witness protection. [laughter] >> what about j.d.? >> we talk about going fishing some day. but maybe four or five for maybe seven seats in the senate. and also do think that republicans will filibuster as what is seen by david keene? >> and did is 60 / 40.
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to look at eric garland the best deal they can get. bettis someone inclined to say we don't want to confirm have. but to put him back up and we will not we tim. with those fingers on the trigger to lay across the of railroad tracks they climb out on the limb and it is
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hard but they know it is a lot less worse than they expect. if that democratic president put a 75 year-old of the court but they may have to wait until after the of first of they here. and from her standpoint but the last thing that she once is the divisive supreme court picked. so that is what i think will happen. or may have been. but if republicans went from losing four or seven or four or six, indiana would be one
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of the last ones to go. north carolina, nevada, . >> those are closer they and misery? -- missouri? >> i saved the chances of coming back are not feel great. that is with trump winning the state handley but i think the anti-a politician's is working against both of them. but i think one started off in a better position.
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but we will see.
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president with a new choice. so let's get it done. the pressure on the left not just the far left but the middle left. to make him republican approved. >> right thing she is a tough cookie. that is not enough pejorative way at all. >> if she wins by at bigger margin than barack obamacare then why is the first thing she has to do is make concessions? why will republicans say you get even less to work with? >> because the senate is totally different. >> that is the answer.
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>> dino that the conventional wisdom is economics but i keep thinking four years after the lbj landslide large factor of that was vietnam. with all of the banana peels out there, plus the relative power in the world is a low point with 25 years to go. how much concentration does she have to focus on international defense? but how this affects the political situation. >> the possibly the reason
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this less of a factor if not the of policy-making process. but if donald trump never happened with the klan - - day campaign with clinton and republican baird we much more litigation than foreign policy records but also the division machine the hillary clinton style policy that she has spent openly critical. and how much of a shadow? >> i guess my reaction and a say this has in me, -- hesitant but the question is is it over 50 percent of her
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time? the only reason why the foreign affairs might to be under 50 percent is the domestic side was more time consuming because you do have to work with congress with foreign policy could be a little more efficient with your time. but that would be close at 50/50. the world is a much more disorderldisorderl why place than it would be and i will call let ed gave there. [laughter] >> nobody knows. pdf. >> day you have any observations about the
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ethical or moral dilemma of those god-fearing christians the people of faith grabbing regarding their choices of the two major candidates? >> id specifically talking about evangelicals? with that core values system. for those who have so many voters but what we see in some places in a place like utah with a mormon population and wine is the
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utah native to go anywhere to send a statement they want any republican but not the trump kind. to see if they are holding their noses. end their choice. but those of religious faith are disillusioned. of this campaign they are
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the two choices. >> i'm trying to decide how much to one to force the people of my office to answer the phones over the next two days. but i hai to say in the middle sometimes it is harder but when i think of the southern protestant background when they think of religious conservatives, when they think of the value structure that is historic claim represented but then i see a
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fair number of them that are so far astray of the judeo-christian volumes -- values. so many ways. talking about donald trump laugh laugh i think i'd need a lecture on values from the evangelical christians any more. because to me, they are so blinded by a hatred someone who does at have church attendance type of background. i find that when people are driven by hate as opposed to feeling like move reflects my values or the ideals we want for our leaders, i guess i will say we don't
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have to listen to certain peoplehood anymore because they are hypocrites. [applause] >> one more question. >> good afternoon. i had the great experience and opportunity to visit the trump hotel grand opening today. i was fortunate to be part of the press to go inside. but on my way out i met in interesting woman who was a passionate trump supporter i had an opportunity to interview and she was amazing. i have to say with her passion that she did not come across as a
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stereotypical supporter that all she was interesting, friendly and educated. my question is is a possible in the future we can try harder to understand others point of view because there is a middle ground and we are human and we believe we have to offer to the world can become together later? >> i have been doing that all my life. >> that is a good question after election coming into the foreground with the electorate not just of political process but the social fabric of america. did people have a desire to get along? but would they rather pull away? but i would argue that this
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is the challenge at large for society the way we treat each other on twitter or social media is not new. coming about because of this campaign. to isolate ourselves in mobil's of comfort so i have been arguing for some time the surprising thing that it takes this long to happen. they're all put on display. so we have to decide to be in these places in so far we have spent quite happy. i think that is where we will stay.
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but think we will retreat back. >> i feel like this campaign lifted up a rock. you cannot put the rock back down and are we better off knowing what was under the rock? cement we are better off if the rock is still there laugh laugh. >> i feel with so many things clearly what we see now with black lives matter in is the reality since the founding of the country that we never healed to put a band-aid issues is out we rip off the stage is ugly but the band-aid back on and read ever fix it. with the underlying cause.
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but i will say the one positive sign but talk about this nostalgia but the reality is we are a diversified country and this is the good part. somebody was allowed to do what i could do. felice is that we never heard before. but with traditional media and television? there is no match one show that everybody watches there is a lot that was never part of the process we have these diverse society like open borders.
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this is what you get and some of it is really bad and ugly and to make sure to half of one definitive voice to make the case how everybody should act and look. not just this campaign but the changing society. [applause]
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