tv Cokie Roberts and E.J. Dionne Discuss the Catholic Vote CSPAN October 31, 2016 11:11pm-12:40am EDT
support particular candidates. so we have folks who go out on the campaign trail to support secretary clinton who are not the president or the vice president or just regular government employees. they are not supposed to be using government funding to sponsor that. that's why we often see folks take a temporary leave of absence from their job.efore an in the last six weeks before the election to avoid the hatch act. the general question is they are covered out-of-pocket are covered by the campaigns are the democratic in national committees. this is not new. i don't think this is any big scandal in this election cycle. this is how the system works and democrats and republicans understand it's how the system works. what you hear is not involved in the spokes in and campaigns. the statement someone with the authority and the seniority of the fbi director so close to an election that signifies nothing
the house of representatives. joining us on the phone is james arkin who is following this for real clear politics. thanks for being with us. >> guest: thanks for having me on. >> host: what has been paul ryan's message this month? what is he telling republican and swing voters? >> guest: his message has essentially been that no matter what the focus is going to be in terms of the ticket what he is really trying to do is convince voters that no matter what they need republican majority in the house. he is talking a lot about his pamphlet for his better way agenda that he developed earlier this year with house leaders and he's basically talking about what he wants house republicans to be able to pass if they maintain a majority. he is not talking about the top of the ticket unless he's criticizing hillary clinton but he is essentially saying we have this agenda and we hope to pass it through the house but you need to be able to send this back with the house majority.
he's campaigning with senate republicans candidates and saying we need majority to pass the agenda in these think it would be helpful to have republicans white house decide that agenda. >> host: on that note has a face political headwinds from the campaign or are republicans in the final week or so coming home to donald trump and conversely to house republicans running for election or re-election? >> guest: i think there's no doubt that he and other republicans have faced serious headwinds from donald trump. democrats are hopeful donald trump's poll numbers are at the bottom falling out of this could cause problems for republicans on the ballot. there's actually the question of whether certain republicans who have either walked away from donald trump or done -- been wishy-washy on whether they support him there is some backlash from some of the most ardent trump supporter's who are restricted that the rest of the party ran included kevin van
behind him seeing donald trump sweeting -- tweeting and say negative things and going after paul ryan. brian hasn't pushed back on it that he's not talking about trump at the top the ticket but there are some definite headwinds for donald trump for republicans whether or not they can convince moderates who are turned off by him and whether they can bring those trump supporter's home to candidates who may not have been in support of trump. >> host: the one october surprise came last friday the fbi announcing is taking a look at new hillary clinton e-mails that national polls right now today indicate it may not have a significant impact on her. my question theorizing that could have an impact on house races. >> guest: it's an interesting thing. most of the people i've talked to since friday in the third parties agree with that assessment. they think in terms of how most think about hillary clinton the problems she's had with e-mails the cake is baked.
you either have a problem with hillary clinton's handling of e-mails or you don't think it's a big deal but either way you're not going to be swayed one way or the other based on the most recent revelations coming from the fbi in friday. it's a very interesting question whether not 11 impact on the ballot. he talked talk to some democrats and they think it could actually energize some of their supporters who might have thought that hillary clinton was going to walk away with it and some not totally motivated to go to the polls but now they see the race tightening a little bit therefore he could just reenergize their dealings that hillary clinton has been treated unfairly. republicans dismissed that argument. they think it's been from democrats and republicans think this could help them in the sense of some republican voters who are pretty turned off by donald trump and don't support him as the nominee but don't like hillary clinton neither could now be reenergize to go to the polls you know going by this
republican argument that we have seen about having a check and balance on the hillary clinton issue and in terms of having a republican congress. it's an argument a lot republicans down ballot have been making that they need congress in place to check clinton's administration and the conversation over the next week is about her e-mails and the fbi investigating some of those e-mails that some voters who might not have wanted to go to the polls will change their minds and will go to the polls because they want republicans in place. that's the idea that they're making that it comes down to is difficult to predict. we don't know which way it's going to fall but it comes down to whether or not one side or the other increases turnout or decreases energy from their voters based on this. >> host: james arkin when we before the november 8 election what will it take for democrats to recapture control of the house as you look at the polling on your web site
realclearpolitics.com? what are the odds of the democrats taking over the republicans keeping a majority? >> guest: i think the odds are the democrats taking over pretty low. i don't think it's a 0% chance that happens but i think a lot of things have to fall into place the right way. the need for the democratic base to turn out and really high numbers for the president obama would into custody custody were even better. they need republican turn out to be -- not to show up to the polls at all and they need donald trump's poll numbers, the bottom to fall out. they need to be pushing high single digits. right now the look at the generic ballot in terms of congressional locus and 3.7 percentage points, i just don't think that's big enough for democrats to take out the house.
most analysts think 15 to 20 seats could be a high mark for them. it would lead them 10 seats short so i think right now we are looking at democratic gains. we could be potentially looking at large democratic gains but i think unless a lot of things fall into place and the perfect confluence of events on election night we still have democrats falling short in republicans holding onto the majority. >> host: and very quickly has speaker ryan been effective on the campaign trail for his fellow house republicans? >> guest: i think if sully has. he is god near universal recognition and brings new attention. he is very popular among republicans in the other thing he does is he brings a lot of money to the table. he's going to an event with barbara comstock in the northern virginia district a very competitive base in the next week or so and he brought
$40,000 in one event so he is a huge fund-raiser. he has given tens of millions to the nrcc's i think paul ryan has been a very effective surrogate for down ballot republicans across-the-board. >> host: the polling numbers and reporting available on line at realclearpolitics.com. james arkin follows the house. thank you very much for being with us. >> guest: thanks for having me on. [applause] >> i would just like to make a few points. number one, thank you. thank you for helping to support him. this man has a big heart and very broad shoulders. one of his first meetings was here at the center about two years ago and he has been coming ever since. you see here is what we are
trying to achieve and this is why he had such a great voice to it. we have an agenda that we are actually running on and talking about. you may not of heard about it because there's a lot of others going on on the tv stage. we caught a better way. here's the number one of our six-part plan is to fight poverty. go at the root causes of poverty. [applause] and here's the way we see things. you know what, all the great ideas are not out there in washington d.c.. they are not out there -- we are not listening to bureau technocrats in washington because if we do that we'll get more of the same. we are in year 51 of this new war on poverty and unfortunately poverty is winning this war. so we are taking a new approach. in our approach we used two years and one mouth and upper portion. come to our communities and find
out what's working, who is doing a great job, how do we get behind them and then measure success in this battle for upward mobility. this is a battle to replace property, measure success based on results. too much about what government does is it sees success as ever. how much money are we spending and how many programs are we creating? we spend money and 80 different programs and we think success is just more than that. we need to measure success on the war on poverty snr were getting people out of poverty? let's go at the root causes. [applause] and this is why i'm so excited to be here. president hardy is one of the architects. president hardy is the man with the big heart says i don't have all the answers but i'm going to find out where they are and where is he these great things happening and going to get behind them because the key to winning this to replacing poverty with opportunity is
eye-to-eye, soul two soul, soul to soul person-to-person community by community. let me just point to one person in this room. [applause] john ponder is someone we pay attention to someone we draw inspiration from, someone that we have learned from. john ponders focal prisoners program is a beautiful manifestation of the idea we are talking about. he is getting people coming out of prison and working with law enforcement working with the faith community getting people's lives rebuilt in making redemption work, helping getting people out of poverty. we need to respect that, not replace that. so what we are trying to do is get everybody to come together. this is not a partisan thing. this is a what works thing. how do we make sure we respect these front-line poverty -- and how do we take these great ideas actually work and make sure they
are spread around the country so we can see this moment for what it is a moment where we reclaim the american idea. do you know what the american idea is? is really simple. the condition of your birth does not determine the outcome of your life. you can make it in this country. doesn't matter who you are free come from. i probably have today is there are a lot of people who don't see that. there a lot of people who don't believe it. their communities and generations that are just passing them by. if it's not chew for free by the vendor really isn't true after all, is it? this is our mission. this is number one on our agenda. how do we restore the american idea for everybody and we do that by listening come by learning them by going with what works by supporting the great community poverty fighters are doing a good job by getting people on the ladder of opportunity. it does want to thank you all. we have an election in 10 days
and this man president hardy is fighting for you. this man has a big heart. this man is working hard because he sees the struggle that is occurring in nevada's fourth district and he's going to bat for you everyday. i want to thank you and simply asking like everybody else is, go fight for president hardy because he will keep fighting for you. thank you very much and god bless you. [applause] [applause] ♪ ♪ ♪
this event and bringing their advanced knowledge of the subject to a it. i'm cokie roberts. i'm here to listen as much as anything and maybe make a few comments about what has happened in the past and what might happen in the future. i did check out the patron saint of politicians and there wasn't one until this century which i guess makes sense. john paul to in 2000 named sir thomas moore. ..
>> one of the perfect person for salesman candidate. she couldn't be moved to be killed and she couldn't be burned. but she was finally stabbed. that was the end of that. but the notion that someone who gave her dowry to the poor should be the patron of the person who is running now it's an interesting concept. at any rate, we are all going to talk for a few minutes, then will open up for discussion. every one of these panelist is distinguished and here she will introduce themselves. that way you won't have some long introduction because nobody does that to themselves.
[laughter] >> thank you for that warm introduction. [laughter] i'm from the catholic university of america. i'm the director for the policy research in catholic studies there. along with prr pri, one of their cosponsors of today's event. i have a little bit of a slideshow, but more of a talk. let me move to the slideshow to begin with. i want to to start actually with the theological overview, to talk a little bit about the church teachings in this regard.
the catholic church does not instruct catholics how to vote. it does not tell catholics to vote for one party or another. it does not endorse candidates, does however instruct on the moral dimension of issues in public like. the church of course, don't think is this is a surprise that teaches that abortion, contraception, and euthanasia are wrong. it advocates for traditional understanding of marriage. for a day and. for ending the death penalty and for religious liberty. these teachings construct as well that economics need to be regulated for concern of human life and dignity. teachings oppose racism, promotes generosity toward migration and the welcoming of refugees and immigrants. those teachings talk about the moral imperative to care for the earth. the moral imperative for the public order to provide
healthcare and education. and the moral imperative of peace building. these teachings instruct catholics to judge laws and policies by whether or not they meet the needs of the poor, oppressed, and marginalized a priority. the church teaches that the moral way of all these issues is not equal. that issues that end or deny human life should be especially weighty on catholic conscience. it also insists that concern for human life is entirely inseparable for concern for human dignity and concern for the earth. that is, the teachings promote a vision for what catholics should do as voters and legislators
that is holistic and integral in a sense. so what does this for catholics in public life? for american catholics who want to follow the church's teachings they face a problem. neither political party, as is evidenced by their platform is a particularly good fit. but we are not allowed to be cafeteria catholics about that. we are not allowed us catholics to pick and choose which of the many teachings to support and which not. none of the teachings is optional. moreover, american politics have become polarized, no surprise to anyone in this room. they become polarized in the last few decades and that polarization has spilled over into the pews into american catholic churches. so, like all americans catholics are very much affected by that
polarization. this makes it even more difficult for catholics to engage in public life as catholics. it is no wonder then and i wish he was here now so i could poke at them about it, it's no wondered that ej will tell us in a few moments, i hope, that there really is no catholic vote there is no meaningful block of voters who represent this holistic unity of the church's teachings in their political engagement. for the most part, what we're talking about and what is usually talked about in contacts like this are voters who are catholic and not catholic voters per se. nevertheless, voters voters who are catholic are very interesting. how they vote usually correlates
with who wins national elections. i expect to this to be true the selection as well. these voters who are catholic are diverse, they are at the moment about one fifth of the total electorate in this country obviously they're not spread evenly across the country. some states have have a larger catholic populations than others. that makes their role even more interesting given the realities of the electoral college. a bit more than 40% of catholics lean toward the democratic party. in party identification. a bit less than 40% lean toward the gop. about about 20% are true swing voters. demographically they forecasts
were america as a whole is headed. 43% of catholics today are either first or second generation immigrants. that is something to pause on. numbers come from africa, east asia, south asia, but fully one third of catholics today are latino. here's another amazing number, two thirds of catholics under the age of 18 are latino. that is the future of the church and in many ways that is the future of the united states. even these latino catholics are divers with ancestries from mexico, cuba, dominican
republic, south america and so on. so the hollywood image of american catholicism is white, irish is white cap next, irish a telling, polish and so on. perhaps in present company i should mention cajun catholics and if ej was here french-canadian catholics as well. >> thank you. >> you're welcome. that image is less and less inaccurate one. there are three things to know about these white catholics. first, what catholics is much more assimilated and generally more americanized in their attitudes and values than the others. >> not the cajun. >> that the cajuns, i agree they are group apart. >> y catholics, should i say not cap cajun here too, why
catholics skew older, more educated and or higher incomes than other. >> y catholics are shrinking, not just in percentage, but in real numbers due to birthrates and those leaving the church. to make sense of the complexity of all of this, these many voters who are catholic, i divide the catholic population into three roughly equal groups. the first third are latino catholics who have common recent elections voted for the democrat by upwards of 60%. then, looking at all remaining catholics essentially dividing them in half we have two more groups. there's a group of those that attend every week or more, about one third of the total catholic population these have sided with the gop candidates and percentages just short of 60 percent. i call this group intentional
catholics. and finally, the third group are those non-latino catholics who do not attend mass every week. that. that is the group that in recent elections has been a strong swing it grew. i call this a group cultural catholics. this year though, it's a bit more complicated as the doctor jones will explain in just a moment. support for donald trump is lower among intentional catholics then we saw for romney, mccain, george bush. and latino catholics are supporting secretary clinton in numbers significantly higher the democrats in these past elections. the upshot is that at least at last pulling in at least things have been fluid. at least at last pulling catholics appear to be moving to the democratic column more strongly than they
have in recent elections. meaning that secretary clinton is likely to win the support of voters were catholic. with that, let me me turn it over to robbie. [applause] switch presentations here. so i am robert jones. i'm the ceo of pri, our public religion research institute as some of you may know us by. at my job here's to set the table with some drill downs of some catholic groups particularly look that way catholic voters from this election cycle are fairly interesting. in the the cycle compared to where they have been in the past. i'll comment on that as we go. then we jump in and the interest
of time. first we thought it might be helpful to get some context. one of the things we have been seen as you know i wrote a book called the end of white christian america. this year, one of the things that i had been noting is this real pattern and despite some of the historical antipathy between white protestant groups in the past we've seen an alignment in the 90s especially since reagan among the groups even theological documents to bury the hatchet's back in the 90s and going forward. what's interesting is going looking at the voting patterns it will tell the story, this is from the exit polls. this is the percentage who voted for democratic presidential candidates. i will. i will put it up into batches, you'll see why. here is the support various white christian groups for democratic residential candidates over the last three election cycles.
none of them hit 50 percent. so they they have been leading toward her strongly supporting republican presidential candidates with white evangelical protestants been the most supportive of republicans least likely to support democratic candidates. but white white catholics, episcopalians have both been around support for candidates and six and ten support for republican presidential candidate. that is kind of the context. what is is interesting about this is it really has been this very big divide between essentially white christian groups on the one hand and kind of everybody else leaning the other way. so here democratic presidential support, support for democrats, religiously unaffiliated, jewish americans and african american protestants. a very diverse coalition supporting democratic
presidential candidates of the last three cycles and it's very homogeneous. it's protestant and catholic, but a space ugly white christian. that supporting republican presidential candidates over time. that's the context for which we enter the cycle. a very long-standing pattern that we have seen. very steady. there some wiggles here but the patterns have been set. this is largely true since reagan years. this move forward. here's. here's where we are today. the latest set of data. it's a combined set of surveys of 2600 likely voters. that's in the election today. across those september 22 to october 17 other field dates. among all likely voters we had hillary clinton up over donald trump, 48, 48 to make 39. white evangelical voters by far the group most what strongly supporting trump a two thirds, only 17% supporting clinton.
white mainline protestants about four in ten supporting clinton, and have supporting trump. and. and here are catholics in the middle. 51 - 40 is how we had them in the survey. in the unaffiliated, non-christian religion including jews, buddhist, and others and african-american protestants anchoring the bottom, 90% for clinton, overwhelming support. only 3% support for trump. one thing to say about catholics, catholic several they have basically have gone with the winner pretty much consistently in the bellwether constituency. but that is is happen because of some very interesting push and pull underneath the surface of that water between white and latino catholics that have been pulling in opposite directions. it's been the confluence of
those currents that led them to be this bellwether constituency. it's not that catholics overall are evenly divided but it's these two subgroups that are pushing in opposite directions in some way that are landing catholics at the end. for context, in 2012, among all catholics obama got 50 percent, romney 48. and so that is right where in that looks consistent if you look back you'll see similar things. and here's what's interesting. drill down further, romney won white catholics by 19 points. romney lost latino catholics by 54 points. points. so that is the split underneath the current that is going on. so one of the things and i will unpack it a little further here, just to give you what it looks like in her current survey all catholic likely voters, white
catholic likely voters tipping toward trump, and here's nonwhite catholics and this includes african-americans, latinos. it's mostly latino and it includes african-american asian pacific islander catholics as well. you can see this huge gap between white and nonwhite catholics in the current election among likely voters. i will drill down a little bit particularly on white catholic voters to get a sense of what is going on. an interesting thing we are seen and were cnet and white evangelicals too. look at the age. the age. there is no age gap among white catholic likely voters. also cnn among evangelicals. virtually virtually no age divide between trump and clinton among likely
voters. we can come back to the q&a. but one theory back up with evidence is part of what is happening among both white evangelicals and white catholics , they have lost so many of their younger members that would've pulled that younger generation to be more liberal, it is muted the generational gaps in many ways. this is been true for evangelicals and white catholics. is the distribution as you can see among white catholic likely voters, 60% over the age of 50. 30% 30% under the age of 49. so you can see the disparity in these groups. so let's take a look at gender gap. there is a little gender gap here showing up and here's 2012 to make 2016. i'm comparing 2012 exit poll numbers to our latest survey numbers. we have about 13 points out undecided. so some of these numbers could come back of people saying
they're not decided. but you can see the numbers here white catholic men, 2012 tour latest among so 2012 -- you can see the gap is among more women that we have 15-point cap among white catholic women between 2012 and today. here's a college education, among white catholics with no college degree a narrower gap. but among what catholics with a college degree a bigger gap. lower support for support for trump then compared to 2012. about 15 points among catholics with a college degree. this is consistent with other polling that we have seen that donald trump is struggling with whites with a college degree in white women. and were seen that show up among the catholic vote as well. i will start there except to say one quick thing about why some
of this really matters especially in the home stretch year that in places like pennsylvania and wisconsin, white catholics make up about three in ten voters there. they make up about a quarter of voters in ohio, iowa, nevada, michigan, nevada, michigan, florida. those are states were hearing a lot about. it's very important constituency as we're looking down the home stretch. >> can i just say -- [applause] therefore seats in the front row, there's a seat back in second row, you don't don't have to stand. >> it's just like church. no -- >> thank you for joining us so
early today. you are alert and awake. thank you. my name is maria. name is maria. i want to thank catholic university and pri for hosting this. i often get asked to talk about the millennial vote through the latina perspective, very rarely through the cross-section between the latina catholic perspective. i think that is a better way to provide context for what we are seen it comes to latina participation. from the funny president of voting latina, we focus on latina millennial's and we started 12 years ago. we did something different. we started talking to young latinos using technology. speaking in english. recognizing their innate leadership. we recognize long before they turn 18 there navigating america for the parents. what i mean is that my son right now is two years old, he he was a good sturdy 11 month old when i had to take him to the
hospital because he kept running into things. jamming his finger, cutting off his toenail, he was a tiny tot. he's a boy. and i have a little girl and i have to say they are so different. i'm trying to reason gender-neutral and i'm like now. thanks. so my son, this is the third hospital visit with him. and about three sit down i hear little girl who's translating for her parents and her little brother is whaley. he could've been more than six months old. she's explained to explained to her mother what the doctors telling her. basically her little brother needs to have an mri.
and she reminded, she took me back to when i was a little girl translating for my family. you realize that little things have changed. we started focusing on the young america latina recognizing their making decisions on behalf of their parents long before they turn 18. why not to the same same thing when it comes to politics. and so we fast forward to the romney election when you start talking about self deportation and the largest group of growing americans are eligible voters in your talking about their families. they password to self deportation to build the wall. i need can only imagine where you have a mixed status family of 6.5 million americans live in mixed status family. meaning someone in their family is undocumented. out of that family 1,500,000 are eligible voters. there are eligible voters in places that we described.
nevada, arizona, florida, pennsylvania, ohio. so we have this luxury of the latina vote stuck in coast for so long as we like to say. they are either in new york, california, and yes texas. but in the last senses, 51 senses, 51% of the population boom in the american populace was because of children of immigrants. of the latina boom. they find themselves in unsuspecting places. this is for one of the largest reasons i think that we start talking about issues of social justice, poverty alleviation, the environment, immigration, social equity, all of a sudden you seen an alertness among the latina population because it impacts them disproportionately. i think right now you're seeing a renaissance within catholicism because for many latinos the pope is the one that we have been waiting for.
he is speaking to those issues of equity. of social justice. of the environment. then you have a presidential candidate who decides to have to have with the pope. on social media, shocking right, breaking news. when breaking news. when he calls the pope disgraceful. when the pope said simply, you have to be charitable with those that are the most poor. it wasn't surprising to a lot of catholics when he went to the border of el paso i basically had a conversation on this idea that we are equal, we're one. for many latinos there was finally a leader giving voice to the hostility they have been feeling, even though they have been doing good labor. that brings me to what we see right now within the latino community info. overall you have the latino is
while we are the second largest group of americans, where 56 million strong. we represent 17% of the actual note 13% of the electorate. so you have eligible voters this year, what we do know is that 17 million have registered to vote. in california, the last two days of voter registration they saw search of half a million people register online. now, had a conversation with the secretary of state to find out how many of them are latino voters and he is not quite sure, but he does know that the surge in voter registration california that it safely blue state has seen a surge of latino participation close to 20%. in the work that we do at voter latino, our goal was to register 75000 people in key states.
colorado, arizona, north carolina, north carolina, ohio, pennsylvania, and texas. in florida. we have registered and proud to say 177,000. mostly using a digital first strategy. talking specifically in english about social justice issues to american latino youth. we are a 501(c)(3) but we have been very transparent when it comes to the issues that we know is going to galvanize them. you start looking at the catholic vote along the lines of not just equity but the idea of who is participating, it's not surprising that you seat strength when it comes to women and family, when it comes to environment and health, that is because women outperform men in the latino community when it comes to voting. women, this is from a 2010 survey, we had 51% of latina woman went to the polls compared
to the counterparts of 39% of men. when you start trying to spar set out also start talking about issues that matter. overwhelming young latinos care about social security and that's because if their parents get sick or don't have that social safety net, they are expected to take on that role for their family. we do this survey in nevada with young women and we found one of the top reason latinas went out and vote it was not just immigration, they're increasingly interested in the platform of presidential candidates when it came to issues of retirement and social safety nets. in the event an older person got sick on the job were they going
to have the basic policy, basic care they needed? as a route usually reflected in older americans that are 45 or 50 that have to care part for parents as they age. the reason the 23-year-old young woman cared is that if all the sudden the parent got sick and did not have the net short of the parent being taken care of, she had had to make a life decision. does she continue going to school or does she quit to support her parents? that's one reasons reasons why social security resonates in the latino community because this idea that they have to make sure that they have -- let me back up. latinas for the most part to not have savings they consider social security savings. if their parents are not healthy enough to pay into that system in there to get sick then many young latinas have to make a decision whether not they they will continue down the road a basically going to school or dropping out to take care of their parent. as we move forward with this election what we're finding is
people are primed for voter registration. we have movements within the young group that are not only registering on behalf of their families but also creating offshoots. i consider the dreamer some of the folks that have really galvanized the community in a way we haven't seen. they were willing to chain themselves to congressional offices. they were willing to chain themselves to the white house so they could have a conversation on equity. coming out of the shadows. as a result result there able to catapult legislation within ten years of comprehensive reform. i would bet money there's no one in this room that doesn't have an opinion on immigration. i bet money. to appreciate it, these people marched in galvanize, mobilize people. there folks with the least ability to represent themselves.
yet they made a national consciousness. if you talk about issues of lgbt or civil rights it took anywhere from 30 - 50 - 100 years to be an opinion i think it speaks a lot to the leadership and their ability to talk explicitly about social justice, if they talk you'll see a lot of young people in the dream movement talk about the environment. they'll talk about equity, lgbt, has a lot to be about what you talk to most catholics in the latino community. the agenda of social equity, of justice and parity that mobilizes them. is that parallel to what we would say the pope we have been waiting for. it's what he discusses every time he is on in front of the pulpit that they identify with. i want to caution that unless a lot of these issues that
resonate among the latino men millennial's we notice that all catholics under 18 are latino, unless the unless the church welcomes and has these conversations, the representative right now currently with the pope that is not going to be the case. right now you have older latinos leaving the church. close to one and four latinas that pet practice another religion or no longer practicing a religion, 25% of them were catholic first. i do think there's an opportunity and i think the opportunity to have these conversations on equity and standing strong for what is right, speaking truth to power when it comes to a candidate that is not only not accepting but not tolerant of us whole
sloth of americans that happen to be hispanic, that happened to be of immigrant families. i think that will be our challenge as we move forward. how are we expecting and standing up for the person who does not have a voice. how can we be a bit more like pope francis. take you so much. [applause] >> i apologize for being late. unlike bill and cokie roberts we live in the same neighborhood, i miscalculated and i apologize. it is very good to be here. i want i want to begin by saying i want to commend catholic university for underscoring the road role of catholics -- they immediately talk about white catholics as of latino catholics are somehow in some other church.
they are not as pope francis among others reminds us every day and politically that is very important because when you look at george w. bush's ability to win the catholic vote, his ability to win the catholic vote hung on the fact that he was able to pick up about 40% of the latino vote. there's arguments about the precise number but there is at least around that. that made a huge difference. what he said at the outset it's right. we can be pretty sure right now that hillary clinton will carry the catholic vote. we can be almost positive unless some very strange thing happens in the next week because the strange happen all the time. i think i also was because i spent too much time reading the newspaper when i woke up this morning. that hillary clinton will carry
the catholic vote by substantial margin and latinos will be key to that. but something is happening in the selection i was like to say that there is no catholic vote and it is important. by that i mean catholics are not a block vote in the country. i think we get misled because we get back to the 1960 in 1964 elections of john kennedy, the first kennedy, the first catholic candidate. he got 70% of the catholic vote and is 64 lg l -- when ike was running against adlai stevenson, according to gallup eisenhower got 40 for 44% of the catholic vote. so there is no block catholic vote. even when you nominate a catholic post john carey did not
secure anything like that majority. but the important part is precisely because a, catholics are a swing vote. they're 40, 40, 20 group in rough terms. there's a slightly larger swing among catholics. and catholics are strategically located as steve also pointed out. which is very important. instantly i have always loved that chart that robbie put up. i've seen it before, has nothing to do with our discussion but when you look at white mainline protestants, 44, 44, 44. i've wondered what numerologist would think of that. [laughter] i think one of the things that we need to think about looking at these numbers is whether catholics in many ways are like all other americans right now
which is ideology trumps religion. ideology trumps peoples people's faith traditions. we all find ways of rationalizing this and there are distinctive characteristics of what steve wagner, a republican voting analyst who looks at the catholic voting closely has called the between social renewal catholics and social justice catholics. social renewal are basically the pro-life catholics. i have to say that you see this even at the parish level. the last two sundays i went to to two very different parishes because at the time of the mass. i was struck at the more conservative parish the first part of the faithful focused on abortion and the right to life. at the other parish i went to the first pair prayer of the faithful focused on ab we would be welcoming to all, may we not exclude strangers. you solve this right at the parish level, all of our
country. now i do not deny that there are real three illogical differences between social renewal and social justice catholics. there are differences in priorities and in how they read the tradition. nonetheless i think we should be honest enough that there is a great cs lewis line that many christians do not read the gospel for alignment on political questions, they ransack ransack in support of their own political party. there's a lot of that going on. were split by class, more so than other split by gender, region, so there so there catholics like all southern white catholics are more republican than other catholics because southern whites are more republican than the rest of the country. that's generally true. what's going on the issue that might be a little different. take robbie's numbers on what catholics where he is and 19, a
19-point margin for romney and a seven plus for trump. give all those undecided voters to trump he would win by 18 points among catholics. catholics. if they split something like they are split now then trump would only have a nine-point margin. something specific specific is happening with donald trump obviously within the latino community, but also within the what catholic and african-american catholic community except for cokie roberts who knows there's a lot of african-american catholics in louisiana. we ignore about 10% are african-americans, 10% of catholics are african-americans. something specific is going on with trump. i would would like to suggest several things. one clearly is gender as robbie pointed out.
the second thing is there is something about donald trump that is making it very hard for even traditionally conservative catholics to endorse them. i have been been struck looking at the national catholic register at a very interesting summary of the opinions of catholic bishops, with their same about the election. the last several elections, very conservative bishops were, they didn't not say how you should vote, there are clear about their preference for the republican candidate. in this election, many of the same conservative catholic bishops are much more likely to say we cannot decide. one bishop said i'm going to write in someone. there's something about trump, especially in the age of pope francis that makes even
conservative catholics reluctant to support him. that that is true of conservative catholic intellectuals as well. clearly immigration because it has become such an important position for the roman catholic church, clearly immigration as part of that. i my faithful view of that in my cynical political view of that. i faithful view of that is of course the scripture says welcome the stranger. my cynical view of that is the latinos other people in the country that both protestants and catholic are fighting for. neither catholic nor leaders are protestant leaders want to get on the wrong side of latinos. in this case we have the happy circumstance of what the faith teaches us be in real first by institutional self-interest. this may be the work of the holy spirit. >> but i think -- i'm a great fan.
i am actually. i think that has something to do with it. i think various other aspects of donald trump that we need not go into today also are pushing some of the traditional catholics, conservative catholic bishops away. but. but you have also begun to see a change in leadership of the american catholic church since pope francis, the two most obvious signals of that are cardinal and the bishop in san diego, the cardinals that including cardinal -- that pope francis ray named recently. i think the message people are getting from the hierarchy this year is far more let's put it complicated than the message that large parts of the hierarchy were given in recent
elections. i think one of the fascinating questions is, are we seeing a circumstance in which the leadership of the church will come back toward where the church was back in the 19 eighties? when when some people in the room are old enough as i am to remember when the bishops put out progressive statements on social justice a nuclear war. finally, i want to say that in the end to even churchgoing catholics do not always listen to bishops when it comes time to voting, my late mom a devout catholic used to have a diversion to candidates and recommended explicitly from the pulpit in general. i do think the message coming out of leadership has some long-term impact. but i see no evidence from robbie's numbers or any other numbers that will seize anytime soon to be that swing group that
is not a block that remains is extremely important in the election. i suspect that on election night when we are looking at returns, particularly from a high, pennsylvania on a number of other states, but also looking at returns because of latino catholics from colorado and nevada, we will be paying a great deal of attention to how catholics vote and that is exactly how pope francis would wanted to be. thank you very much. [applause] >> now that we have talked about cajuns i have to tell you the story. in the first person dan rather arrives in saudi arabia to go to
central command. he gets there and the military guy says mr. rather, if you don't mind, the chaplain would really like to see you before you go into the field and he said of course on the chaplain. the chaplain was from the home of louisiana. he said, i just had to meet you because i had to tell you the story. said right before i came here i was saying mass and i look at the back of the church and there's a guy who hasn't been there 20 years, at least. so after mass i go up to him and i said john baptiste was lovely to see you here but what brought you here? just curious and he said dad rather dan rather brought me here. and the priest said really? how, why did dan rather bring it here
and he said because every night he said crisis in the golf, christ is the call, i figured any figured any minutes could be in oklahoma west. [laughter] i was actually going to star with the different story also completely true and it picks up where dj left off. which is unintentional, but happy which is when the tipple new love to tell, which is when jack kennedy was president and tip had jack kennedy -- the house key. they were friends and tip didn't like to ask the president for favors but tips very good friend was head of cyo. and cyo was meeting in new york and the president was going to be in new york anyway. so tip says, i hate to ask you this but would you mind going in just talking to the cyo, the right there won't be a problem.
and the president said yes but that's it. no more. once the cyo is there the rest of their. in so sure enough he gets this message. while the bishops are meeting down in ballroom a and also by the way, the nuns are meeting in ballroom d or c. [laughter] and of course they want to see you and kennedy says, i'll go see the nonce, they vote democratics, the bishops are republicans. [laughter] so this is not new. and i know they started this by saying very formally the church doesn't endorse, news to them.
[laughter] so i was very curious as ej was to go and look at things like the national catholic register. you are right, they are are not endorsing exactly but they are certainly pretty clear that if you voted for somebody who isn't 100% antiabortion that you are going straight to hell, but was interesting as it was not a red hat on that list. so the higher, the people who are nervous about their futures were not represented. it is true by the way that if you do go in. by the way, the cardinals or at least women cardinals which is taken a stand on the world series, but he's done a great thing. since we've waited an eternity
for a win if chicago wins he will send deep dish pizza and baked goods, whatever that means, to, to all of the homeless in cleveland. and leaving the bishop of cleveland say no, me too. so it's good. this is the kind of statement that mother teresa was saying that we want to see. it is true however that if you just go to google and type in catholic vote, what comes up is a website called catholic vote. and it starts saying that tim kaine does not represent catholic values and asked you to sign a petition but doesn't tell you what it is. then it has questionnaires in one sense, where do you send your best donation right now to help on this catholic vote battle for the 2016 election
that brian burch outlined to you in his letter? your choices are yes, because i share your views of the 2016 election is very likely our last chance to save america from being destroyed by the anti- liberty, anti- family, anti- left radical left. or no because i don't care care much about elections or who selected president. [laughter] so, it's a problem. it is still very much out there. it is something that people feel and it's something very much it perishes particularly absurd parts of the country. when you talk about the catholic but you cannot ignore the role of the many members of the hierarchy in our elections and how it has pushed people to
believe there is only one issue that is a catholic issue. we also know where the nuns are. they are on the bus. [applause] i did look up the sisters of sta wonderful just a little -- keep in mind that a 1990 at the american catholic push-ups did put out seven principal catholic social teachings. care for the vulnerable and poor, unity, solidarity, human rights and responsibility, the right to food, water, shelter, clothing. and another catholic is personally responsible for those rights. the importance importance of family and faith communities. responsible stewardship, human
dignity, and the rights of workers all of course rooted in the common good, but including the personal obligation to ensure the rights of others. that is not something we hear even from witches. we absolutely protect witches rates. that is not something you hear enough about. that's what murray was talking about. young latino catholics, if they are caring about that that's fabulous because so far when you talk about that vote it is not in the catholic vote, it's been the jewish vote. in fact 20 do surveys of jewish voters they hardly ever, like 4% say israel matters. i just looked at the numbers, the numbers that say social justice is the most important thing is embarrassingly high for
catholics, i have to say. as a catholic married to a nice jewish boy for 50 years, literally. so if young latinos start becoming those social justice catholics that's not only good thing in terms of really representing the church more thoroughly, but but also keeping the church alive because the new, the few numbers on the people who have left catholicism are shocking. 32% rounding up say that they were raised catholic in this country, 32% of all americans in this is out of an enormous 35000 person survey. out of those, 41% say they are no longer catholic. only 2% convert to catholicism. we are losing population if we
don't address these issues. and i think that is terribly important to keep in mind. it is true that we tend to focus in terms of voting on my catholics and that's for a reason. that is they have been the people who have pretty much stayed with the winner until mccain and romney. if you go back, white catholic started with nixon, carter, reagan, clinton bush, bush, then mccain and romney. it appeared to be as they went to so what the election. but of course the last two that was untrue. therefore in this election what i would suggest, looking at your numbers so your list and others are before recent developments in your undecided are way too high.
really. but in the bcs poll before you before we started tracking it was 51, 38, trump clinton among white catholics. if yours was if yours was 48 - 39 overall voters clinton trump. white catholic men 33, clinton 58 trump. why catholic women, 49 clinton, 48 trump. they're tracking the same numbers as the total poll. so, from that what i take is watch white catholic women. forget the men. [laughter] with that we'll take your questions. thank you very much. [applause] >> media questions first. if there are any. >> i'm jim webster.
is it fair to look at the white catholic men split and suggest that they tend to sleep during the gospels but wake up the homilies. [laughter] >> you know the gospel used to be in latin and they didn't understand it. >> i'm russell king. i believe one of you mention the platforms and suggested either they're both bad or there is no difference. i strongly disagree on that. in case you don't know hillary clinton wants to spend several million dollars for planned parenthood in any heroic congressmen every september -- yes i do. you need to look at www.voting info.net and find, you'll find that the republicans are support
the hyde amendment that the democrats want to repeal the hyde amendment. how can can he said there's no difference? >> i think i'll leave that went to you. [laughter] >> my thanks to. i did not say there's no difference between the two platforms. in fact i think there's quite obvious there's enormous differences. but i did say in what is on mistakenly true is neither party's political platforms measure up well with what the church teaches. that is if you just think about it, it's pretty clear, the whole body with her churches she sheep is to be understood as a single harmonious unit. everything from death penalty and preferential option for the poor to opposing abortion and so on. it's all one whole.
that whole unfortunately is not evident in the platforms of either political party. the nature of the reality for catholics is that we always come in one sense or another have to engage our prudential judgment and inform our conscience to wrestle with these things and make the best choice that we can. based on that. >> i think that was a good example of what i was talking about in the sense that your commitment is on primarily your commitment i'm saying. i saying the gentleman's view is very representative of a significant piece of the catholic community. he does represent the part of the catholic community that believes that the abortion issue trumps every other issue.
therefore has made the choice that you have made. i think the social justice catholics, some of whom are pro-life as well make the case that being pro-life not only takes into account what the church teaches on abortion, but also what the church teaches about the poor and social justice. this is why we have a running arguments among catholics, both in leadership and in the pews. it is a fair, i'm glad you're here to represent that view. it is in the church. and that is argument we have. i think post pope francis emphasis, not that he's abandoned the church teaching but his emphasis has been quite different than what we became accustomed to over the previous 15 or 20 years. >> . .
and 52% of latino catholics agree with that statement so maybe that is notable to this conversation. >> i am just wondering if there are any numbers out there that have been done that reflects whether the bishops have been influential among the catholics in one way or another. are there numbers that show.
we had the bishops, priests and asked up the influenza in general. the pope's influence outweighs the bishops in the context. influence was high here in the survey. >> i think you should add you influence is more, the bishops -- and you can see the correlation. >> one of the most called a flock of shepherds.
>> i don't like the term latina. i think it has political connotations. the reason why i am standing up is just a couple questions. how long ago were these surveys conducted and do you believe the recent developments may have altered the outcome of the numbers to how our latinos being defined to tie everything together. and as mentioned that both -- most catholics, if i'm reading or interpreting all of you correctly that latina catholics are focused on voting ideology over the belief system and that
upbringing, and do you think there is anything that can be done to address that on the issue of social justice is that an interpretation by the millennial's that social justice is something that needs to be addressed by the state. i know that it is a lot for a couple of questions, but i want to make sure. >> left my colleagues addressed that and in the colleague american catholic church as a whole in the survey, only 22% are millennial which is a shocking number because the population is the biggest population of the country.
so the baby boomers are 28%. that is a problem through the church, and whatever the reason for that, that is a problem if so the fact penis the penis, hispanics, people who defend have many more as something that needs to be addressed and celebrated. >> when you talk about social justice and equity and how it relates to the millennial same general, they are among the 24% of the poverty.
when you look at the classrooms today, there are children of color disproportionately and at the very first 51% of the kids that were actually living below the poverty line. so when you start talking about social equity, they are living it today. the latino vote is incredibly complex, and i don't want to say where they are the people of these children have experienced poverty. they are seein seeking their pas work two or three jobs. all of a sudden they find themselves in that voice navigating social justice and social equity for their family. and they don't see it through the political process.
you will see them at the highest levels of volunteering and giving up and trying to make sense of what america is because speaking english, they are expected to understand america. and i will throw in one tidbit. only eight out of 50 states require the education to graduate to get your high school diploma. and if you are expecting a whole first generation of immigrants to learn the power of many try to understand is the people that are active when it comes to politics that's where a lot of
the folks, i mentioned at the end of my remarks have a large section of the community that don't see themselves in a church that reflects them an dan and ik that pope francis is speaking their language. >> based on 80,000 members show the parody and to give you a sense of the demographics it is almost 82,000 people. there is 71% that are under the age of 50, so that is a demographic shift.
>> if you were asking whether we know if comey has had an impact we won't know for couple of days. the polling is very vexed. it is showing up, but i don't think that we will see the full effect for a couple of days. since he mentioned that the polls were conduct did [inaudible] the numbers are post debate and we are giving nightly