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tv   Journalists Discuss Campaign 2016  CSPAN  November 2, 2016 11:50pm-12:43am EDT

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>> host: polling director for the "washington post." right now the national campaign that is essentially a dead heat between the democratic and republican nominees. thank you for being with us. now journalists panelists include gloria of cnn, fox news sunday anchor chris wallace, charlie cook of the cook political report and correspondent mike allen. from the economic club of washington, d.c. this is one hour. [inaudible conversations]
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can i have your attention for a moment, everybody please quiet. thank you. i would like to first acknowledge a few people who came after my earlier acknowledgments, the ambassador is here. [applause] and the state senator from maryland and the postmaster general is here now. [applause] so, thank you all for coming. we are going to have a great discussion on who the next president is going to be and who is going to control the house. let me introduce the distinguished panel to my immediate left we have chris wallace, of course the host of fox news sunday and among other things the winner of three emmy awards but also did a spectacular job as the moderator
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of the third debate. [applause] and we now have gloria the chief political analyst for cnn who was previously at cnbc, cbs and u.s. news, and you probably see her many hours a day on cnn. [applause] and charlie cook who is the founder of the cook political report and is widely considered the bible of political reporting so he will tell us who is going to win every single congressional district in the senate race. [applause] mike allen who is the chief political correspondent for public echo and was the editor of the playbook and is widely recognized for his knowledge of politics and government and he
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also has political socks on that he might show. can you explain these. [laughter] [applause] are you selling those if anybody wants to buy them? [laughter] was to deal with the easy part first. if there had been no action by the fbi director last friday would you say that this is over? >> know because that isn'no beci do for a living. i certainly think it was the narrative and the conventional
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wisdom that hillary clinton had a solid steady lead in the polls and especially in the electoral college and i think she had a distinct advantage to getting the 270 electoral votes. i think that i would have said she was a clear favorite. >> iowa and have said it was over because it isn't over until it's over but i would have said she had a glide path and the narrative before last friday is back hillary clinton was probably just trying to rack up the numbers and help the candidates and make sure she got a democratic along with her so it was the shape of the race. >> was it over before last
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friday? >> the first part of last week if looks like it was starting to fall out for love of the house and senate republican candidates and then i think it kind of came back a little bit and screw everything up in the air so that now i think it is possible for donald trump to win but i think things have changed a lot less in the last week than the conventional wisdom. >> what you say before that the election was over? >> the biggest change is that it gave the new way into the candidates until then the first question any candidate was asked wherever they went was about donald trump and now it's not and that is a tremendous
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advantage. >> today what you say that it's not impossible and this might be realistic to think donald trump when? >> guest: you still have to say she has an easier path than he does and maybe we can get into those numbers later about it has changed and you look at the polls where he was behind by eight to ten points and he's now behind three to four were some places he was behind a two to three and he's now leading by a couple and you have the abc tracking poll that showed him with a lead and today it was a flask tied 46-46. i will say in my experience for covering politics for years there's nothing that can move faster than a political campaign with a tide that is changing. >> i think this race if nothing
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else has been volatile and there are a few wer are number of vots left. some people say 6%, 7%. i would say the number is probably smaller than that but i do believe donald trump right now is doing something we haven't seen before. he's staying on the message, he's giving his republican candidates something they can talk about which is running against hillary clinton so for the first time in the campaign they are singing from the same songbook and that will help him. will it be enough, does hillary clinton have a built-in advantage in this electoral college, yes she does. he's got to find a blue states to flip. he's looking for them and he's looking at states like wisconsin and states like michigan.
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at this point, overnight as howard baker used to say, overnight is a lifetime in politics and i believe in this race more than any other that is true. >> he's doing something else smart in his messaging now it's not just clinton and the fbi e-mails, he was making a big pitch in terms of obamacare and trade and undoing nafta. those are the kind of issues with the open enrollment starting this huge increases in premiums and deductibles those are powerful messages. >> i think because both hillary clinton and donald trump have negatives each one keeps anything possible but i think there is a better chance of
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hillary clinton hitting 300 donald trump in 270. >> there's no doubt the republicans have a new spring in their step. but you look at what is happening in the state and republicans would still tell you that it's good to be difficult based on the infrastructure but also the early voting that makes a difference. we were chatting backstage about how roughly 25% of the people you'd expect to both voted 40% voted before election day. it's that little stat that reminds you of the importance of the science there is now. john mccain in the primary this year lost in the votes cast on election day. >> i didn't realize this myself until last night when i saw it on somebody's show.
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cnn. [laughter] ..
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rain >> >> you have to show the somebody else clucks a you have somebody helping new? >> you didn't tell me her going to ask these questions [laughter] that is a funny story. [laughter] i again negative call early september from the
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chairwoman on presidential debates i knew i would come up with the questions in to say what the topics would be. if so i said who comes uplift those and she says you do. because i did not know that. it was totally from my research so is just like us see now devotions 11 as we were reworking the questions
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everyday and then and this is how paranoid that we had thought. of patients than in a laundry bag in the back of the closet that everytime i left i had the book. >> and what is the key to keep them from talking over you? [laughter] >> so just one story in that regard, i prepared to make tremendous degree the questions for each of the topics with the cheek sheet on each of them with the data points so if i did not say that. but the date before the commission said take me to the video and then you can work it out on the stage because anybody who has been
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there in person knows it is infinitely smaller that looks on tv. so there in their faces and you are close. so what is your favorite moving so the zero woman doing the two most persuasive minutes ahead never heard why shawshank redemption was the greatest movie ever made laugh laugh seriously. so then n change and then they interrupted and i came raid to realize all my preparation of one of the hardest jobs would be the
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seed of the penis decisions you have to make when to interrupt or through to the other person that could make or break the debate. those that were involved in running the senate campaign committee for so what were the turning points in the selection? to say the excess of video tape or the goldstar controversy after the democratic convention. i assumed that would be it. with the first debate one person said to me that's
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donald trump was 65 percent after that it was cut in half. i don't know if you saw that >> will was poisoned by. >> with those primaries so why were they and able to bring all those negatives? >> even chris christie or marco rubio there was no reason. they were tired of the voters. to the question is why didn't ted crews who was fishing in the same pond with the same group of voters why weren't they dishing this out to the news media and? because he would have been the beneficiary of trump
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collapsing most people were not going to go to jeb bush for chris christie. >> but for all of them to take this search serious enough with the collapse. >> eight o one to alienate. in just before the of primary so when ted crews still had a real chance and why he didn't drop the hammer. but they could have found enough stuff one her. >> one was a failure of imagination. but they didn't think that they had been the idea to drop b&l on their neck to
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give them oxygen but second they were just afraid. they did not interview with newt gingrich's. and he said that in a debate donald trump was the bear. [laughter] so he is like leonardo da capriole? exactly. so with the unmarked envelope. you don't have to have your finger prints. >> there was some debates it was flying over donald trump said. >> she was in the center because he was leading in
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the polls the person who leads is in the center and then the person who was last is that the end but how did you not recall the debate where chris christie finished marco rubio. that was the sacrifice fly. suicide bomber. he did it. [laughter] nobody else had to. >> and he said to crisscross the a here you are coming after me allegedly caused christie said you have no idea. [laughter] so why did ted crews not endorse not endorse donald trump if assuming that trump would lose but the i told
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you so but the minister is to get closer and he thinks about 2020 he decided to do it i bet he wished he waited another week until after the first debate then he would have not done that. >> but the presidential campaign today what states are most surprising on election night? what are the biggest surprises? so people looking early so with trump loses florida and we will know from the western part of the state from the panhandle if he loses florida is over there is no way he gets that to a hundred 70 but if he wins florida we could be headed for a significant night. those butterflied ballots are gone.
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the attached. >> i am not sure i will look at wisconsin as trump says that is in play. but the republicans believe because there is said a diversity of opinion they say colorado is not in play republican say it is that point or two. >> but they just went up with ads the democrats did. >> so they're looking at them differently we have new pulling out today that shows showing tromping up in nevada and arizona. and pennsylvania by four points. she was up by done - - double-digit so florida is
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almost a dead heat as did almost is. >> talk about bernie sanders. peace said it famously i don't give a damn about your e-mail soar to that effect was that a mistake? could he have possibly one class. >> i think it was the mistake i think he could have made more that i just wonder in the end the 74 year-old independent socialists will beat hillary clinton. so with those disadvantages but it is because of the superdelegates. >> so why did he not choose to run a third-party candidacy?
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>> he would not hand the election to donald trump. obviously a third-party candidate now. and then to say let me make the case for hillary clinton. >> so chris christie said he was offered the vice presidency last minute. is that truth greg. >> there is a great story cleaning under the direction of chris christie justice see the report if you remember trump was in indiana so he would have to stay in indianapolis one more day to give pence another chance to make the pitch. >> who came in second?
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was mike pence always the first choice quick. >> tim kane was so perfect because he was a governing choice. , secretary clinton has seen that vice presidency up close so many times some people would be very effective. >> so this is a safe and solid deck. >> is the favorite statistic why we all talk about hillary having the advantage structurally if you look in there are 18 states and the district of columbia for that voted six elections and of through clinton and bush six times in a row voted
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democrat that means she just told on to vote democratic chile needs 28 more electoral votes to win. been so flat that to the republicans six elections in a row. so she starts off to include states like florida or ohio or north carolina. or with that other structural advantage. >> so the impact of the fbi news public at the enthusiasm among clinton supporters as we have seen before donald trump's voters are weighed more enthusiastic than clinton was voting for her that was
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starting to equal about last week and then came director comey i don't like to look at these shifting 10 points in midday but you do see some over a period of time the enthusiasm numbers tend to be shifting down so the question i have been times is does that mean some will stay home so does that suppress the turn out to or make that turn out to be more enthusiastic? we don't know the answer. >> with the eyeglasses half
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full so you talk to the republican pollsters would is discussed about the mails or a the investigation to be more educated high end, voter it would be hillary clinton so there is some worry about that. that is why do be so much more nervousness for 500 days the top voters have spent calling me but those
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are fine. and then to do a national poll to make that statistically significant. to get that down a 7800. but that is the stationary telephone landline so how did they get those of the donatello phone with all of name-brand pollsters the problem is caller id. if they ask your opinion about politics but today it is who will get my dinner?
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to look at a person calling better than on-line or roll-call and stand-alone is better than a tracking poll because they can do the callbacks so the problem is it turns then to a commodity. some of these are junk. >> so on the day of the election with the exit polls if you go one tv you're supposed to pretend you don't know the outcome. >> but we don't. we look at the exit polls they give you any indication how certain questions are answered but we don't really know the outcome i remember when they were still a 4:00
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in the morning spinet there used after the election for the speech material to make the points you want to make. and the race that you don't know the exit poll will not tell you. >> if the election is over tomorrow for the purpose of this clinton wins what is the turning point for her class. >> i think it is tough first debate. >> i think the nomination of donald trump laugh laugh. >> august bid if he would win then what is this turning point quick. >> i kid be this hard negative to say the nomination of hillary clinton. [laughter] certainly the announcement from comey.
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talk about the senate if the white house is controlled so what if they control the senate? so and so a week ago and that seems likely. that republicans could this the very close race. and now that is not the case. so completely on the cusp. there is three ways it is very possible so it is vice president came or vice president pence.
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slid the then the air. >> new hampshire or pennsylvania. >> and he is the better candidate. >> illinois is over. what about florida rubio by four points. >> nevada? north carolina? >> that is hard that is what the republicans are frustrated with because remember the old record players than there is 17 and 1/2?
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barcelona to organize doing the way he has always done it. >> misery? denied that is tough. he is working with phil hall anti-washington it will be closed. >> you can see absent the top of the ticket the republicans would have returned. >> one thing to add on that i have never seen a presidential race where you don't have all the candidates running when the
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presidential nominee comes to town. to vote for this ticket with our presidential nominee at the top. and they are doing that, but you don't have that picture. >>, any surrogates' does clinton have quick. >> 500. >> michele obama what is trump's most effective surrogate? >> and one day ago they were together. fifth for. >> at 308 seat majority. if you don't like the outcome of the house? the republicans lose zero.
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>> over the last few weeks bob now people have dialed back but either way the republicans will lose the new have more moderate ones. >> can we tell that they will win or they will not or vice versa quick. >> these and other the blues and racist what is worth what noting getting down to the tossup to go one way or the other to push those on the edge one way or the heather. >> of donald trump loses will he concede the night of the election. >> >> that is what he said.
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[laughter] >> 500 votes if it is millions of votes toward electoral votes. >> i do think it depends what they see. the states have the automatic recounting rule with the margin is less than half of a percent in florida automatic recount. if that word to occur in the state of florida abetted donald trump and then they probably would not duet. >> and then if there is no shot to win the presidency
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but i think donald trauma puts everybody on notice that they will not say that right now. >> i don't think we will hear anything to be a normal concession nobody ever loses u.n. or you are cheated it is like everybody getting a trophy. >> >> what ever the result is to say exactly of what he said. >> the best single speech was by who? >> michele obama speech so i will say per speech aimed at
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the zero women voters in the younger women in particular caught after the "access hollywood" tapes came out. >> and what fell flat on its face? >> that is not a good thing. >> let's suppose at hillary clinton wins who is the presumptive lead candidate in 2020? >> somebody who's not involved so to be the governor of south carolina. >> ibid want to be somebody that wasn't.
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the nt end you may be right. >> so what does this mean for paul ryan? that is the big question this speaker of that house to eventually endorse the candidate but cannot say his name. he talks about him now as the nominee but has a very difficult time. >> what has he done for his own political future? >> pretend it is the opposite. the leader of the democratic party going forward greg. >> one of the reasons you didn't have much there were a lot of credible republicans i would differ but that what they spring to
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mind presidentially i don't know. as the presumptive leader but paul ryan has to make the decision dead heat does he want to run for that nomination and then house republicans will be more functional with uh mcconnell schumer relationship as opposed but that house republicans have to decide to legislate or investigating the other half want to investigate. >> with the supreme court nominee would tpp be approved greg. >> i don't know. you have a lot of of republicans on record to say
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we will stand firm but with hillary clinton as the president elect but not in the lame-duck. >> never thought i would say this but i think he has a better shot to be confirmed in that scenario. >> how is the press covering the next election differently? have they learned anything to reprove upon one quick. >> the answer is we will make mistakes. they could not do a worse job. >> i think early basically cable news handed over the
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airways so they gave him a free ride and maybe not as aggressive holding feet to the fire but then the oblast month watching the of basketball game i am not a trump defender at all. with. >> i completely agree with that. look at the adjectives looking at him to lurch into something. that was very president -- prejudicial. >> we could debate the role
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of the media we need some time to get through the election so if he make yourself unable wanted the press they will interview and i recall jeb bush talked to us frequently because he behaved booking the people on the show's that to serve disadvantaged anybody and so felt there. so now donald trump hasn't had a press conference and
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would talk to the press any time when. >> i would respectfully disagree i would give infusions of sodium plentiful you could not flown in. >> >> the answer is i don't know.
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and talk about when to the blue caller america i feel your pain probably both. but if elected president over hillary clinton should try to get him did jot -- a job as a lecturer on a cruise ship. if donald trump was elected president he would be surprised by the quality of air force one and now white house will he be okay with his standards quick. >> mike blumberg never moved into the governor's mansion. >> so who do think is chief of staff with clinton quick. >> actually they have real problem because a lot of the people they have thought of our so tainted by that
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e-mail's. use your names for. >> tom bills sack. >> who would be chief of staff for him? what time on election night you think we can go to sleep and? >> in florida goes for clinton is over early. if it doesn't we see ohio, florida going for trump and it could be a long duration. >> we're on the air until 3:00 a.m.. >> we knew about obama at
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9:00 p.m.. select but the senate could be the race. >> so for that director on anything? they were reviewing the debt but said e-mail so maybe and maybe not on that front so how many days to be have left?
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rb going to hear any news? if they haven't found yet they're still looking maybe. >> donald trump for hillary clinton with that division it is difficult to get anything done? >> i think they can. there couldn't have been a more contested election day and george w. bush coming down to 500 votes in florida and i know their reaction after words before is you govern like to have a mandate if you do not have a
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very successful first-year. >> hillary clinton with the republican senate to constrain her own instincts for her left-wing she would say i have to which individuals not running for president? anybody quick. >> with the progressives in the democratic party to become a star on the campaign trail for the democrats bernie sanders did not. >> but i would say the two things that make me less pessimistic number one is better to have bought president to meet with
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members of congress to have his arm broken. and second the relationship would be functional. >> who was the biggest flop in this campaign? anybody coming in as a loser in this campaign. in that they would pay a price per that and where you were on this. >> [chanting] other presidential campaign greg. >> god willing. >> i think i have to. >> asked me the day after.
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>> [applause] thanks to all. [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations]
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