tv Cato Institute Hosts Debate on the Libertarian Vote CSPAN November 8, 2016 7:00am-8:08am EST
for the second largest group of americans, where 56 million strong. we represent 17% of the actual intellect or. so you have roughly 27 million latinos that are eligible voters this year. roughly 27 million have registered to vote. in california the last two days they sought a search of half a million people register online. i had a conversation with the secretary of state to find out how many are latino voters and is not quite sure that he does know the surge in voter registration is a fully blue state has seen a surge from participation close to 20%. and the work we do, our goal was to register 75,000 people in key states of colorado, arizona,
ohio, pennsylvania and texas and florida. 177,000. talking specifically in english. we are a 501(c)(3) and transparent when it comes to issues that galvanize them. if you look at the catholic vote along the lines of not just equity but the idea of who is participating, it's not surprising you see a real strike when it comes to women and family, when it comes to environment and health. women outperform men in the latino community. the 67% went to the polls compared to their counterparts to 39%. when you start trying -- e.j.
had a question. when you start trying to start inside out, you start talking about issues that matter. if their parents all of a sudden get sick or don't have the social safety net, they are expected to take on that role for their families. we did a survey with emily's list in nevada with young women and one of the top reasons latinos would not reasons latinos went on about it was not just immigration but they're increasingly interested in the platform of candidates when it came to issues of retirement and social safety nets. in the event that an older person got sick on the job, were they going to have the basic policy of care they needed. these are reflected in older americans around 45 or 50 that
of care for parents as they age. the reason that 23-year-old young women cared less if all of a sudden apparent that sick and didn't have the net, she had to make a decision. she continued go to school or quite so she can support her parents. that's one of the reasons social security resume with the young latino community because the ideas they need to make sure they don't have savings. they consider social security as the savings. if their parents are not helping them into the system and they are to get sick, they make a decision of whether they will continue down this road. they are dropping out in order to take care of their parents. what we are finding is people are primed for voter
registration patriot movements within the millennial group not only registering on behalf of their families and creating offshoots. i considered the dreamers and the folks that has galvanized the community in a way we've not seen, meaning they were willing to chain themselves to congressional offices. they were willing to change themselves to the white house said they could have a conversation on equity and coming out of the shadows. as a result they were able to catapult legislation of comprehensive immigration reform. there's no one in this or that does not have an opinion on immigration. to appreciate it, the young people marched and galvanized and they were the folks that have the least ability to represent themselves. they get they made in the national consciousness.
by contrast if you talk about issues of lgb to your civil rights it took anywhere from 30 to 50 to 100 years for there to be an opinion. it speaks to their leadership and talk explicitly about justice. they talk a lot of the truman movement and wage equity, a lot to do with it is the agenda of justice and parody. it is when he discusses every single time than is in front of the pulpit. i want to caution that unless a lot of these issues that resonate among the latino
millennial as we notice to third at catholics under the age of 18 are latino. unless the church welcomes and has these conversations that are represented right now what the pope. right now you have larger latinos in the church. close to one and for the team as that process another religion are basically are no longer practicing a religion. 25% were catholic first. there is an opportunity to have these conversations on social justice and standing strong, speaking truth to power that is not tolerant of a whole swath of americans that happen to be of
immigrant families. that is going to be a challenge as we move forward thank you so much. [applause] >> i am trained to do. i apologize for being late. i'm a l. golson and roberts we live in the same neighborhood, i miscalculated this morning and i apologize. it is very good to be here. i want to begin by saying i want to commend catholic university for underscoring the roles of latinos in the catholic vote. i have a pet peeve when people talk about catholics they immediately talk about why catholics as if latino catholics are somehow and some other church.
they are not. as pope francis among others remind us every day and politically that is very important because when you look at george w. bush's ability to win the catholic vote, his ability home on the fact he was able to pick up about 40% of the latino vote as arguments about the precise number at least around 40%. that made a huge difference in his ability to carry the overall latino vote. what steve said at the outset is absolutely right. we can be sure right now hillary clinton will carry the catholic vote. we can be positive and listen very strange thing happens in the next week because strange things happen all the time. i think i spend too much time reading the newspaper when i woke up this morning. you know, hillary clinton will carry the catholic vote by a substantial margin and latinos
will be key to that. something is happening in this election. i always like to say there is no catholic vote and it's important. by that, i mean catholics are not a block vote in the country. we go back to the 1960 and 1964 elections. john kennedy first catholic candidate that 78% of the catholic vote. in 64 lbj hung onto most of that. he got 76%. one election for jfk when ike was running against adlai stevenson. according to gallup, eisenhower got 44% of the catholic vote. there is no block catholic vote. even when you nominate a catholic post john kennedy, john kerry is not secure or anything like that majority. the important part is precisely
because catholic sorry swing vote. there are 404020 group in terms. and catholics are strategically located as also pointed out, which is very important. i've always loved that chart that robbie put out. i've seen it before. this has nothing to do with our discussion but when you look at white in the protestants, i wonder what numerology is would make of that. it just seems to me. i think one other thing is that they're catholics of whether all americans right now which is ideology trumps religion, trumps peoples faith traditions.
we'll find ways of rationalizing mass punch read this. there are distinctive characteristics that was steve wagner and republican voting analyst who looks at the catholic vote is called a difference between social renewal at catholics and social justice cap the period basically the pro-life catholics. i have to say you see this even at the parish level. the last two sundays i went to two different parishes because of the time of the mass and i was struck at the more conservative parish the first prayer of the faithful focus on abortion and the right to life and the other parish i went to the first prayer of the faithful focused on maybe we be welcoming to all maybe not exclude strangers. they see them out at the parish level all over our country.
there are logical differences between social renewal and social justice catholics. differences in how they read their tradition. nonetheless, we should all be honest enough that there is a great cs lewis lined that many christians do not read the gospel on political questions. they ransack ever supported their own political party. a lot of that going on. we are also split by class. we have more so than usual as lit by gender. we are split by region, southern catholics are more republican than other catholics because southern whites are more republican than the rest of the country. that's generally true. but what is going on this year there might be a little different? take a robbie's numbers on white cat where he's got the exit poll
showed an 18-point margin for romney and i wanted plus seven for charm. because of all those undecided voters he would win by 18 points. if they split something like they are split now, trump would only have a nine-point margin. something specific is happening with donald trump obviously within the latino community, but also within the white catholic and also by the way african-american catholic community except for cokie roberts and others african-american catholics in louisiana. we ignore 10%. [inaudible] yes, exactly. 10% of catholics are african-american. something specific is going on with trump and i would like to suggest several things. one clearly is gender as robbie pointed out.
the second thing is there is something about donald trump that is making it very hard for even traditionally conservative catholics to endorse him. i have been struck looking at the national catholic register the conservative newspaper had a very interesting summary of the opinions of catholic bishops, what they are saying about the election. in the last several elections very conservative bishops, though they didn't say how you should vote, they were pretty clear about their preference for the republican candidate. in this election, many same conservative catholic bishops are much more likely to say we can't decide. once that i'm going to write in somebody. there is something about trump especially in the age of pope francis. that makes even conservative catholics reluctant to support
them. that is true of intellectuals as well. clearly immigration has become such an important position for the roman catholic church, clearly immigration is part of that. i have my faithful view of that in my cynical political view of that. my cynical view of that is latinos are the people in the country that both protestants and catholics are fighting for and neither catholic leaders nor protestant leaders want to get on the wrong side of latinos. with a happy circumstance of what the faith teaches us about institutional self-interest. this may be the work of the holy spirit.
i think that has something to do with it. various other aspects that we need not go into today also pushing some of these traditional cap lyrics, conservative catholic bishops away. you've also begun to see a change in leadership of the american catholic church since pope francis, the two most obvious signals of that are archbishop cardinal su pitch in chicago, bishop robert mcelroy in san diego, the cardinals than including the pope francis named recently. the message people are getting from the hierarchy they see it as far more complicated than the message that large parts of the hierarchy were giving in recent elections. one of the fascinating questions
as nbc and a circumstance in which the leadership of the church will come back towards where the church was back in the 1980s to remember when the bishops put out strongly progressive statements on social justice and nuclear war. finally, in the end even churchgoing catholics don't always listen to bishops when it comes time for voting my late mom, very devout catholic used to have an aversion to candidates that recommended explicitly on general principle. but i do think the message coming out of leadership has some long-term impact here. i see no evidence from robbie's numbers are any of members that we will seize any time soon to be the swing group that is not a
blog and remains extremely important in the election. i suspect on election night when we are looking at returns particularly from our pennsylvania and a number of other states, but also looking at returns because of latino catholics from colorado and nevada. we will be paid a great deal of attention to how catholics vote and that's exactly how pope francis would want it to be. thank you very much. [applause] >> well, not that we've talked about it, i absolutely have to tell you a story. in the first persian gulf war, and dan rather arrived in saudi arabia to go to central command.
and he gets better and the military guy says mr. rather if you don't find the chaplain would really like to you before you go into the field. the chaplain was from louisiana and he said i just had to meet you, mr. rather because they had to tell you the story. read before i came here, i was the same as in i looked at the back of the church and there's a guy who hasn't been there in 20 years at least. after mass he goes up and says it was lovely to see you here, but what brought you here? just curious. he said dan rather. dan rather brought me here. the priest said really. how, why did dan rather bring you here? crisis in the gulf.
any minute now be in your mouth. [laughter] but i was actually going to start with a different story also completely true and it true and it sort of takes up where dj left off which was unintentional but happy, which is one that tip o'neill love to tell when jack kennedy was president and of course tip had jack kennedy's house seat and they were friends and tipped it and like to ask the president for favors. tips very good friend was head of cyo. cyo was meeting in new york and the president was going to be in new york anyway. tip says i hate to ask you this, but really, would you mind just talking. they are right there. it's not going to be a problem.
the president said yes, but that's it. no more. once the cyo is there, the rest are there. and so sure enough, he gets this message. the bishops are meeting in bonn where the ad and also, by the way, the nuns are meeting in ballroom d. or c. last back and of course they want to see you and kennedy said douglasa demand. they vote democratic. this bishops are all republican. so this is not new. we started this by saying very firmly the church doesn't endorse. news to them.
and so i was very curious as dj was to go and look at things like the national catholic register. and you are right, they are not endorsing exactly but they are pretty clear if you voted someone who wants an antiabortion that you're going straight to. what was interesting to me as it is not a red hat on that list. and so, the people who are nervous about their futures were not represented. but it is true, by the way if you go win. cardinals taken in the series. but he's done a great game. he's waited an eternity for a win and said he will send to you
dish pizza and bake goods to cleveland and leaving the bishop of cleveland. so it's good. this is the kind of statement we want to see. it is true however that if you just go to google and type in catholic vote, what comes up is a website called catholic vote. it starts saying that tim kaine does not represent catholic values and as you sign a petition that doesn't tell you what it is. and then it has questionnaires. will you send your best donation right now to help fund this catholic vote battle plan for the 2016 election midbrain birch
outlined you and your choices are yes because they share your views to 2016 election is likely her last chance to save america from being destroyed by the anti-liberty, antifamily, anti-life radical left or know because i don't care much about elections that were elected president. so it's a problem and it is still very much out there and it is sent in people field and is very much in parishes particularly in certain parts of the country. but when you talk about the catholic vote, you cannot ignore the role of the many memories that the hierarchy in our elections and how it has pushed people to believe that there is
only one issue that is a catholic issue. we also know where the nuns are. they are on the bus. but the fabulous sister carol. i did look up what saint joseph had put out a wonderful primer. just keep in mind in 1998 the american catholic bishops did put up the seven principal social teachings. care for the vulnerable and the poor. human rights and responsibility, the right to food, water, shelter, clothing and is personally responsible for those rights. the importance of family communities, responsible stewardship, human dignity and the rights of workers all of course rooted in the common
good, but including the personal obligation to ensure the rights of others. that is not something we hear. we absolutely protect which is rights. and that is not something you hear enough about. young latino catholics, if they are caring about that, so far when you talk about that vote, it has not been the catholic vote. it's been the jewish vote. when you do surveys of jewish voters, with 4% say israel matters. i just looked at the numbers. the numbers that say social justice is the most important thing is embarrassingly high for catholics i have to say that the
catholic married at a nice boy for 50 years. literally. so if young latinos start becoming social justice catholics, that is not only a good thing in terms of really represented the church more thoroughly, but also keeping the church alive because the pew numbers on the people who have left are shocking. they are 32% rounding up saying they've raised catholics in this country. 32% of americans with the enormous 32,000 person survey. out of those, 41% say they're no longer catholic and only 2% compared. we are losing population if we don't address these issues and i
think that is terribly, terribly important to keep in mind. it is true that we tend to focus in terms of voting on white catholic sonatas for a reason, which is that they have been the people who have pretty much stayed with the winner until mccain and romney. really if you go back, white catholics voted for nixon, carter, reagan, bush, mccain and romney. and so, there's always a group to be looked at in the electorate because it appeared to be as they went, so went the election. of course the last has not been true. therefore, this election i would suggest looking at your last fall before a recent development and your undecideds are way too high.
the abc poll before we started tracking, by the way, it was a t-1 -- 51-38. all voters clinton trump. white catholic men 33 clinton 58 trump. white catholic laymen 49 clinton 38 trump. they are tracking exactly the same numbers as the total polls. so from that, what i take as watch white catholic women. forget the men. and with that, we will take your questions. thank you very much. [applause] >> media questions first for members of the media.
>> and jim webster from niagara falls. is it fair to look at the white catholic men split and suggest that they tend to sleep during the gospel during the gospels but wake up in the homilies? >> well, the gospel used to be in latin and they didn't understand it. there they are. >> and russell king. i believe one of you mentioned the platforms and suggested either they are both batter there is no difference but i strongly disagree on that. in case any of you don't know who could wants to spend millions of dollars for planned parenthood and many who wrote congressman every september. you need to look at www.voting info.net. you will find that the
republicans support the hyde amendment could the democrats want to repeal the hyde amendment. how can you say there's no difference? [laughter] >> y thank you, cokie. >> i did not say that there is no difference between the two platforms. in fact it's quite obvious there's enormous differences between the two platforms. what i did then what is unmistakably true as neither party's political platforms measure well with what the church teaches. if we just think about it, it is pretty clear. the whole body of the church's teachings is to be understood as a single harmonious unit, everything from death penalty and preferential option for the poor to opposing abortion and so on and so forth. it is on one hole.
that unfortunately isn't in the platforms of either political party. the nature of the reality for catholics is that we always in one sense or another have to engage your credential judgment and inform our conscience to wrestle with these things and make the best choice that we can based on that. >> i think this is a good example of what i'm talking about in the sense that your commitment is primarily your commitment -- i was saying that the gentleman's view is very representative of a significant piece of the catholic community. he does represent a part of the catholic community that believes that the abortion issue trumps every other issue and therefore
has made the social justice catholics, some of whom are pro-life as well that being the account of what the church teaches on abortion, but also what the church teaches about the poor and social justice and this is why we have running argument among catholics both in leadership and in the pews and it is fair. i'm glad you are here to represent back to you. it is in the church and that's the argument we have. pope francis emphasis, not that he's abandoned the old church teaching, but his emphasis has been what we've become accustomed to over the previous 15 or 20 years. >> if i could add one more small thing to that. one of the things that is often overlooked in this conversation is on the pro-life catholic myself. what are the best policies by
which we make some progress on pro-life issues? it's interesting over the last seven years the abortion rate in the united states has gone down. i'll just leave that out there. >> a 102nd ad on here it is notable most of the country, catholics, white catholics included a brief today that neither political party represents their views anymore. 60% of white catholics and 52% of latino catholics agree with this statement. that is maybe notable to the conversation. >> tom roberts, national catholic reporter. since they become a part of the discussion i wonder if there any numbers, any polling done that reflects whether they have been influential among catholics one way or another. either numbers that show catholics considering? >> the last numbers where you talk about the bishops and we
had bishops, priests and we ask about influence in general over a year ago. and basically we found the pope's influence far outstrips the bishops influence in the u.s. context. i don't have the numbers right in front of me, but the ratings are higher and the influence was tired of not survey. >> inspired by copious remarks come you should have a new question at some point. we could see a very interesting correlation i suspect. [inaudible] >> every one of his books was called a flock of shepherds. >> hi there. i am a latina, hispanic did i
really don't like the term latina. it has political connotations. i am an intentional catholic. the reason why i am standing up as just a couple questions. one, how long ago were all the surveys conducted and i'm just wondering if you believe some of the recent developments may have altered the outcome of those numbers to how our latinos being defined in the context of surveys you have conduct did and just generally trying to tie everything together, do you generally believe as dr. schneck mentioned that most catholics, particularly the millennial catholics and it appears that i'm reading all of you correct way or turbot and all of you correctly that latino catholics are much more cultural catholics and focus on voting ideology over belief system over the poor
catholic bringing and do you think that there's anything that can be done to address that? on the issue of social justice, is it an interpretation by the millennial, the young latinos that needs to be addressed by the state or are they believers in individual responsibility that the church does teach with respect to love thy neighbor. i make sure i'm interpreting. >> let me throw one number out to address that. and the catholic -- american catholic church as a whole, only 22% are millennial as bush is a shocking number because the millennial population is the biggest population in the
country. the baby boomers are at 30% and millennial 22%. that's a problem for the church. whatever the reason for that, that is a problem. the fact that latinos, hispanics, whatever, people who descend from the head. tenants who love has many more millennial as in their mid-and the church as a whole is some thing that needs to be understood, address and in my view celebrated. >> when we take a stab at, one of the reasons we talk about social justice and social equity relates to get millennial said general that they are among the highest poverty rates. they literally have roughly 24% they live in poverty.
when you look at our classrooms today, 51% of k-12 are children of color. disproportionally they are first-generation immigrants and they are the very first time were 51% of our kids were actually living below the poverty line. when you talk about social equity, they are living it today. they have not -- the latino vote is incredibly complex and i don't want to say blanket lay where they are, but for the most part a lot of these children of immigrants have asked. it's that level of poverty. they are seeing their parents working two or three jobs, work and below minimum wage jobs and all the sudden they find themselves giving up voice and navigating social justice and social equity for their families. they don't see it through the political process. you will see them very active at
the local level. they have the highest levels of voluntary and the highest levels of giving back and trying to make sense of what america is because they simply been speaking english they are expected to understand america. one tidbit there is that in our public schools to send, only eight out of 50 states require civic education to graduate and get your high school diploma. it's a national tragedy. if you're expecting a whole generation of first-generation immigrants to their the levels of power, they are not. if they don't understand what we try to do is teach and provide information. disproportionately the young people that are at it when it comes to politics added to be from the tree of our from the dreamer population or they have a family or that ethnic status family. that is where a lot of the information weekly. when you start talking about
what he knows and i mention that at the end of my remarks. they don't see themselves and that's why pope francis has given them a reason to come back to the church or at least be trying to come back to the church because he's speaking their language. >> a couple quick numbers. our latest numbers based on 80,000 interviews last year the 2015 numbers show latinos are 42% of catholics now. it's really approaching parity and fast. to give you a sense of the demographics, the same survey is 82,000 people of white catholics on vhs 50. 71% of latino catholics under the age of 50. that gives you a sense of the demographic shift. >> real quickly, if you are
asking to be know yet whether the komi letter has had an impact? i don't believe we will know that another couple days because polling over weekends is very vexed. it is show would not that i don't think lucy in total effect for a couple days. [inaudible] >> okay, that's how i heard it. >> since you mentioned the polls were conducted last year and particularly -- and the abc numbers are all postdebate and we are now doing nightly tracking. >> the point i wanted to make
was on the social justice question you asked. there's a lot of talk saying that catholic social teaching is very different from traditional new deal liberalism. in fact, a wonderful piece by the tyler daly who runs research who argued that the whole new deal could be seen as coming out of the catholic bishops 1919 program for social reconstruction and that there has been within the catholic tradition a kind of christian democratic tradition that is not dissimilar from the social democratic tradition that really does see a substantial role for government in ensuring social justice. catholics are very interested in mediating institutions. obviously we care a lot about the social service programs that are run not only by the catholic church but by all kinds of other religious traditions in our country. there is concern about them.
the catholic tradition is a pro-government tradition in the sense that it believes that it limits on government but it also believes there's a vital role for government to play in social justice. i don't think that's debatable. you can debate around the edges and talk about the emphasis at different times. you can say certainly the statist systems like those in eastern europe were violated the catholic tradition as well. but i think there is a substantial role for government within the wrong social teaching of the church going back to the 1890s. >> something to clarify that while the majority of latinos do believe in a strong government. they actually believe there's a role for government to provide services yet they are the least of all the demographics in america to take advantage of those services. it has a lot to do with the idea that the poor should be able to take advantage without being completely disseminated.
when we talk about the millennial bug and latino but in general, something i didn't mention is the average latino voter is 27 years old. 44% of the vote is under the age of 35. when cokie was benched in the millennial pope vote is bigger than baby boomers, this is the first year generations will vote as well. that generation is larger than the millennial generation but also the most diverse. it's also the last generation that is majority white. as we start talking about different social issues and how you start creative leadership pipelines within the church within government, we basically a 25 years to ensure the new generation of americans are primed and ready to take on this leadership positions. >> is one of the members of a
small but fervent group called for catholic social thought, as cokie pointed out, we are for it because we believe in it. i do have to ask, you know, is skeptical question that has been insinuating itself in my mind increasingly over the past couple of years. if white evangelical protestants that they are saying the last two generations commit tankers would be the nominating republican party. i am beginning to wonder, here is my analytical question. to what extent is religion actually an dependent variable in shaping the leaves and political activity as opposed to simply a function of providence,
identity, socioeconomic status, et cetera. when you correct for all of that, is there any religion left over? that's a dead serious question and i'm beginning to wonder whether exceptionalism is all that it's cracked up to be. >> i'm very worried that religion is becoming more a form of tribal identity than it is a tradition -- a set of traditions that these people to reflect on how politics connects to the faith they profess. robby has written about this. you can talk about evangelicalism is split between trump and crews. there's a lot of talk that churchgoing evangelicals were more pro-crews though i wonder if some of that wish undergrad or with anti-trump vote on churchgoing evangelical women. you see it in the difference between russell moore has been very critical of trump and the
pastor of the first baptist church in dallas where he gave his sermon. i don't want to misrepresent him, but he was essentially in tough times we are on the ropes being pushed out of the culture and sometimes you need a strong and perfect hand to defend us. i'd think rod because the nostalgia voters, that they are people who believe things are so messed up that we are willing to risk a guy like trump because that's what it takes to preserve our role in this. lastly, whenever you are talking about white voters. there is always an element of race that has been in this picture throughout the history of our republic and that there has been a certain movement of white voters away from the democratic party particularly but not exclusively in the south
and not just clearly is part of this story. it's not to say these people are racists. i'm not saying that. i'm saying if you ignore the role of race you can understand some of the ships. >> i think e.j. is exactly right about the religious tribal identity that becomes kind of un- reflect to, kind of an us and them dynamic. the other thing going on last week looking at dynamics of the election and will be concluded is in some ways this election is about the future of the country. it's about what the country looks like and whether that's good or bad. all these demographic changes and cultural changes. as looking back with better? does it make america look right again or is it leading into the changes in celebrating. we had a question on the survey. this may have as much to do with how catholics are following here. we asked the question to you
think the country is change for the better for change for the worse since the 1950s? it turns out 57% of white cat is really that is changed for the worst and 65% of hispanic catholics say it has changed for the better. that is one of the big polling lines. [inaudible] i'd have to look it up. the bigger divide are by ethnicity. the gender split is not that big. the title of the report is 19542050? that was the title released. >> i have it right here. >> mark here from catholic news service. i know it's been a really long election season, but we've seen
over the course of the last year and a half some softening where you would not expect to see such softening. the rise of third parties, some tonic shift. is it possible after the dust settles from this that there is room for like a christian democratic party as we see in europe that would espouse the full range of cap x social teaching or are we so wedded to the two major political parties that purchasing is not possible. >> and ifc to answer that because i still want to hear what you say. i'm just curious. >> go ahead. >> it's always easier to proceed okay rather than follow her. >> you might feel that way. >> in response to your question
first and then i want to come back to those questions. now, i don't think that there is a chance for the emergence of any kind of new political movement that incorporates the full range of catholic teaching whether it was a christian social justice. i just don't see it as a possibility. the polarization that exists in politics are so sharp and so deep that skating over those fines just isn't possible in american politics right now. nevertheless, i do have a little bit more hope. it's interesting these two questions come so close together. there are voters for whom religion really matters and for whom they really matter.
i'm tempted at this point to pass the night two sisters simone campbell. found all over the country is strong reception to their network organizations that reach on exactly these kinds of things. i think these voters are there, but like you think by and large for the vast majority of americans, religion just becomes a means to rationalize voting decisions and policy decisions that are made on a variety of other grounds. >> iowa way and on the third party briefly because of getting laid. if ever there were a year would a third party might have emerged, this was it. you see where they are. the two combined are lower than
10%. so it just doesn't have them. ross perot could do it. if donald trump had run a third party, would have sent him nurse. the fact is i have absolutely no data to support this and i love data. and this is bad. i have come to believe and we sort of understand that if we started that we would be in a mass. there is the possibility of doing something. the country is so big and so diverse not just ethnically and religiously, but economically.
they gravitate towards our politics being very centralized in the two parties. they can change a lot and we seem not over the course of my lifetime and will see it as a result of this election. that is where the change comes internally inside the party. >> i've always thought the church's job is to make everybody feel guilt she and therefore when you look at catholic social teaching and conservatism in other ways. a lot of people who are more liberal on once i do not take the church's positions on the other. an ap reporter went on to other things later wrote this story
many, many years ago in the new york state legislature on abortion and also against the death penalty. he was able to fit them in a story because there is such a small overall percentage of the state legislature. the prospects for a democratic or to a religiously-based party are very low was the disaffiliation of many young people so that his party would even have problems in the long one it would be very difficult. a lot were in trouble now around the world because of this secularization. >> i very privilege. they speak briefly about how the catholic vote may break down
ballot. >> you've got the numbers. it tends to be my faith. so to that degree and this may be your anonymous if i can get these numbers right. 44% of the voters voted one way for president and another way for congress and in 2012 it was 6%. we have pretty much ended ticket splitting the push before the comey letter had been republicans asking voters to split to check hillary clinton.
catholics wouldn't be any different in this particular arrangements. since the comey letter immediately upon the release of the letter, many of the same republican candidates started running time, just stand vote for me, both for trump. >> i think it will vary by state. there is a distinctive group of probably republican leading independent and the percentage of them who are catholic will probably depend heavily on the demographics and not any particular catholic moment. >> i basically agree with what has been said. one area where you might notice
in regards to strongly pro-life voters, some also a good portion of whom are catholic. gary think you might see people voting for local pro-life candidate even though my vote against trump at the top of the ticket. i think you need to look at it on a state by state, almost case-by-case basis. [inaudible] [applause] [inaudible conversations] ..
[inaudible conversations] >> well, it looks like it will be a few more minutes until this discussion on the 2016 campaign gets underway. it is hosted by the international foundation for electoral systems. we will have it live here on c-span2 when it gets underway. while we wait, we'll show you a discussion on reporting of election night results. >> available online at time.com. how the media got smarter about calling elections. hailey edwards is following story and joining us on the phone. thank you for being with us. >> thanks for having me. >> let me begin with that question, how so? >> well in the early 2000s,
you might remember the media they messed up a lot in calling the 2000 election for gore and then for bush and then for neither, catalyzing this electoral crisis. so in the wake of that they put their heads together and changed a few things. the first one was that they formed the national election pool. they changed their name, hired a new pollster. they hired edison research, very well-respected and they pledged before congress that they would not call an election based on exit poll results before they had the fine, before the polls had closed. so that was major difference in beginning in 1980, the networks would call elections before the polls had closed. and then the last thing they did that was really interesting, instead of allowing exit poll