tv 2018 Mexican Presidential Election CSPAN June 29, 2018 8:42pm-10:14pm EDT
depth fiction edition with author brad thor on book therefore on c-span2. >> the wilson center hosted a discussion but the mexican presidential election including two political science professors and a mexico based pollster. he they discuss the candidate's chances in he election and the issues motivating mexican voters. this is an hour and a half. [inaudible conversation] >> welcome back to the wilson center. we are less than a week away
from a historic election in mexico. we are delighted have with us three of the leading experts in mexico on politics, both executive, presidential legislative, state level, et cetera. the hand-picked panel, not just three people we found randomly on the streets of mexico city, and delighted have jorge buendia back with us and his last presentation here a few months ago on the election race really left a big mark. so here jorge will be giving us a an overview of the polling numbers. many of you already know what -- what the presidential race looks like but jorge has a whole bunch of other data in there that will give you extra texture on that. delighted to have with us joy langston. joy is not an only friend, longtime friend from mexico, works at the university, and is an expert on state level
politics on the pre-and on governors in mexico in particular. so i asked her to talk but the state level. and last but no least eric magar, former colleague of mine from the political science department. eric will be talking but legislative politic us. he with hey three opening presentations about 15 to 20 minutes speech then should have half an hour four q & a. so without any further adieu, jorge, you can lead us off. >> thank you. thank you duncan, thank you to the mexico institute for the invitation. come to give you an overview of electoral preference at this moment, five days before the election takes place, but to be using the board developed by -- which is polling a degree grater that you may already know -- aggregator you may already know. last night and this morning two
poll were published and this aggregation of polls shows the incorporation of these two polls. probably the news about this two policies that were published yesterday and today is that the advantage of ricardo anae ya over -- is two points unlike the other polls in the past but still the polls show more or less comfortable lead of 5 percentagan putts of ana ya ore kneads. look at the date right now, it's a huge advantage for lopez obrador. it's 47 to 27. so, if you look at the mexico newspaper and the mexican media, you will see there's a lot of debate who will be in the second place and if you look at the
declarations and statements made by either jose antonio meade or calderon, they of giving a very serious fight for second place. so this is kind of incredible. that has been the logic of the campaign because as you can see, -- wait. lopez obrador thursday candidate who increased a lead. in february he had about 38-39% points in the electoral preferences and right now it's 47-48, and if you compare these numbers with november, december, of late last year, lopez obrador as increased hi support 10 to 12 percentage points and the other
candidates have not moved that much, so probably the most important event took place in february when there were all these criticism or accusations of money laundering against ricardo anaya, which translated into increasing support for lopez obrador and anae -- anaya with the same level of support and this is the key moment and i'll show you later from some figures that support this view. so, today it's very clear who the leader is. this is not par himry system or like the u.s., where the electoral college decides who wins. so it's very clear that lopez obrador has a very big advantage. what would hear for lopez
obrador to flus people talk about polling mistakes in the pastout can make a very cat struggle event or that folk polls were really, really wrong for these result not to be true because the advantage is so huge on the one hand, you can see the different polls that have different percentages for lopez obrador. actually this is a polling -- 47%, but just one week agoing, ten days ago, poll were giving lopez obrador a level of support above 50%. so, even with that 10 points error by the polls, lopez ore wrap door could still win. the other thing is that look at the trends. we don't see a trend of the second place going up. and first place declining like
it happened in 2012, 2006, the 2000 election. so, for me very e very comfortable lead for lopez obrador and that does not say anything about the second place growing. let me -- you can see clearly here how lopez obrador has increased supports over -- on the campaign train, it's very, very clear the level of increase, especially scintillate december when all the candidates who are known and this is a very important thing because the other candidate just remain stable or decline. there is a lot of volatility and
obviously one of the reasons of electoral volatility in presidential systems are the candidates. how well a party does or how bad i it does depends a lot of the identities of the candidates and you can see also here how opinion about the candidates has changed during the campaign. in november of last year, lopez obrador was 33% had good opinion about him, 33% have a negative opinion about him. this was morse like what happened in 2006. the culture divided about how good lopez obrador could be. and then you can see that he is positives begin to increase a lot, and that -- and he is the only candidate that has more or
less that trend, needs also improves a lot but more negative than positives, and obviously the increasing positives for me the view to a greater name recognition but still it's in the negative realm. anae ya, a very promising starts and then just stabilize. -under you look at the balance of opinion, lopez obrador is the only one that have a better positive balance of opinion, which means his positives outweigh his negatives. the other two candidates are in the negative area. so, this more or less tells you the whole story about the campaign. so what happened at the level of social groups regionally? the first two measures are the
actual -- the official results of 2006 and 2012 and you sook the he evolution of support for lopez obrador along these 1 years. this is a region of the pacific north. this was an area, part of the country that didn't like lopez obrador either in 2006 and 2012. you can see that calder robe was favored to win the president si because he had a clear advantage of 20 percentage points over lopez obrador 2006 inch 2012 the story this same between pain ya and lopez obrador. obrador never got more than 20% of the vote in these northern region of the country. right now, we are seeing two things. very clear increasing
support for lopez obrador in this area, this region, and look also what happened in february of this year. anaya and lopez obama bra door were tied but after the accusation of money laundering against anae ya, the one who took advantage was lopez own contract door. increased this support like 14 percentage points and anae ya nine percentage points in this area. so almost a two-to-one relationship between lopez own bra door and anae ya, and you can see they have not got any increasing support in this region. so i think that this graph and this region really shows you what happened during the campaign. the accusations of money laundering translated into a
decreasing support for anae ya and increasing support for lopez obrador and the pri didn't benefit at all from this. another region that it's very important to take a look is this southern part of mexico where the most underdeveloped areas of the country are. you could see that lopez obrador in 2006 and 2012 was very come pet enough that area, and -- come pet enough that area and his main opposition was the pri and or 2006 and 2012 the pri ner get below 30% of support. but then -- this is another important trend that explains what is going on in mexico right now. there was a very important cries
for the pri in the state of composed this southern border with mexico, especially the state of veracruz, where the former governor is now jail and at the same thing happened with the governor of -- so was we have here is this region just went for lopez obrador in an overwhelming pay, 60% of support in this -- during this election. nothing has changed that much since the beginning of this year. something that happened either in 2017 or 2016. and look at the decline of the pri and hasn't changeds that church and the -- it's three-to-one advantage of lopez obrador over the pan or the pri in this region.
so, this explains a lot why we have right now lopez obrador at the level that has him being expected or this kind of unique in this regard because we just having to pass a lot of etrek toral recommendation. i was very difficult for a candidate to get fast over the throws of 40% of support and now we have lopez obrador at 47. another important changes, look at gender. males have always been a base of support for lopez obrador. the main vote, in the higher cooperation than females. but that's not the case anymore. what happened in the campaign is
that the lopez obrador was favored to gain the female vote, especially after the accusations against eric at the beginning of the campaign. there was a tie in the female vote between anae ya and lopez obrador and then after the accusations it has increased a lot. millenials are part of the explanation what happened with the dynamics of the campaign. it was very competitive group at the beginning of the year, but later on they just went for lopez obrador and abonned can ricardo anae ya. what oles obrador gain is what
anaya lost. you can see lot of stability in support for the pri, which is also a confirmation of that -- the pri's already counting on his hard closed bored. hasn't moved that much during the campaign. education is another important story. unlike what many people think in 2006, people with low levels of education, which seemed to be the poor ones in mexico, they didn't support lopez obrador that much. a very competitive group are partly because of official programs from the government, social policy, but right now, especially during the campaign, support for lopez obrador has increased to 50% among this
group inch previous election was only 36, 28% of support for lopez obrador. but the story of the campaign is also illustrated with the better that people in mexico. in 2006 this group was not con vein its of lopez obrador. actually they voted more for calderon. this people with public education appear to be the better off in society so you can also argue this was kind of social class vote and this group was not with lopez obrador in 2006. now days since the beginning of the campaign, it was clearfully favor of lopez obrador. so to sum up to some of these figures you can see that the advantage lopez own contractday
have is the same among all social groups and the is not a division in mexican society, let's display regions powder him, some regions oppose him, some social groups are against him. nowdays we see that lopez obrador is the front runner in this different social groups. ... with the issues, corruption, which is the most pressing issue for the mexican public that needs to be solved. security is one of them. 40% say so. 27% say corruption. economic conditions, 50%. you see clearly that lopez obrador has the advantage on the issue of corruption. people who think that corruption
is the most pressing issue, almost half of them support lopez obrador. this is an issue that clearly benefits lopez >> this is an issue that the benefit without support to change that and to talk about insecurity and this is regardless which it is about. the story with a different set of questions corruption people care more about corruption and this should be the top issue so corruption it isn't just a
clear-cut issue regardless of the issue that you care about nafta. 67% of the mexican population supports nafta and says it is good for the mexican economy and to see differences in support forpp the candidate those that support that it is the same regardless of the opinion and so then what that strikes them is this really takes a priority with nafta.
but now the differences are more or less stable. and second, we don't see that as a society but nowadays he is getting support from social economic groups it isn't a society that is polarized and it explains why it has to work out because the mexican public now they say that is a highly critical view.
and now it is twice the size and that should show you the dynamic of the selection. >> thank you very much for that i could see a lot of people taking notes everything will be on the website at the end of the presentation so don't worry about that. thank you for being here this is a sold-out event if you didn't get your tickets through ticketmaster on time go to step up next time. now we will move on to eric to talk about the legislative outlook so once we load up the presentation, eric t want to sit or stand? perfect. the microphone is yours. >> thank you. while my presentation is uploaded yes it is that one.
thank you now that everything is set up i will be speaking off of the congressional races next sunday. as you probably already know all seats in mexico bicameral congress are up for grabs and the much less salient election than the horserace of the presidential seat but yet i would argue it is equally important we expect very importantng changes in this election although the forecast is a bit harder to do because of the presidential race there is very little polling that is
relevant with the expectations. so we can guesstimate based on some of the information that is around. so you probably know the mexicano' election system has a mixed electoral system like the u.s. in the lower chamber voters have one vote which they give to one candidate in their district but then that district there is a plurality but then the vote carries on to a further presentation on a parallel track where the parties seats are distributed by a percentage of the both chairs of the party. in the upper chamber you also have one vote you give to a
candidate in your state whatever gets the plurality there is two seats but then there are 32 given by proportional representation. it is quite different from american. so regardless of party they sign-up in a coalition agreement with two other parties with the three major candidate running on the coalition and a former french party and the evangelical party so that is a pretty odd coalition but what is striking is the coalition agreements have the distribution which is
quite surprising that the small partners, an incredibly large share and if you look at the column the nominees for the federal districts and half of those have candidates but the other half are basicallyut split between evangelicals and given the potential that will breathing a substantial amount nonexistent parties into the chambers. so where they are ranked there are 19 or 32 states with no
coalition but then the 12 states only one or none come from the other party so that is a huge price to the minor coalition parties also the possibility that they are called watermelons but we already know about that. so now predicting the lower house is a tough call because there is no district level polling. there are a few polls at the state level and those tend to lack representative examples and they do not give a good idea of how the vote is distributed geographically. it is important to know which
district might be winning by a huge margin and in the past there was lots of votes in the city but not so much in the countryside but we would have no clue about all of this so going into a landslide of single-member seats so that remains to be seen but basically a simple rule a of thumb then we are waiting for of seats and given the seat distribution they should expect half of those for the morena candidate and other goes to the other partners so to guess such a guess those presidential votes it isn't too hard in mexico
because it seems to be starker in the u.s. basically in the end of the 19th century was one on one relationship in the presidential race by the party with the candidate that has been growing from the past century but in mexico what is left because the degrees of the different party but the former party that was abandoned some years ago was a half a point coalition between the congressional votes so given this is a new partner if you look at the science in mexico with one of the lower ticket o candidates so basically with the presidential race to
take a guess what the congressional vote may look like with a 50% vote and then the rest at 19 and then looking at the parties maybe we could expect a 50% share of the majority with morena candidates ifty not more and what happens to the opposition? if the people stick inside their own coalition but rules happen in the lower chamber of congress that we will experience a non- unified government for the first time since mexico has become democratic weather or not the coalition which is diverse scan held on or o not but that
will be something to look at the coalition for the presidents party basically a majority for the presidents coalition on the other hand to be presumed the largest opposition party can manage to hold themld accountable from where they themselves are not given with the those disastrous results it looks like a very different congress of what we became over the last decade and a half for the last two decades but the upper chamber to know which coalition comes in first or second inee each state the basically we could do some guesswork to think the coalition should at least come
from the states in second place woody falls and then with the rest with the independent candidate and basically we would have a set itat that is much more strongly controlled by the president or the future president coalition than the lower house with that especiallynt big opposition party if that is relevant or not. but i would just like to touch another aspect to expect important changes if we look ho morena the nomination methods with the uncommon nomination rules basically
that they are selected randomly and appointed by the national party and then each district will select the other half in the district but the proportional presentation every third name is nominated by the national party and the other two arear ahe elected by lottery. by chance. basically every district sends ten names for the national lottery and two thirds on the come up randomly. and then that secular factionalism than they are inviting the party or several parties and this is one way to restrict politics. but the question remains that
behavior of these three types of randomly selected party base versus the national base appointees would look like. and another thing that is important to keep in mind since 1934 has been single termgl limits and those are up now they were surprisingly removed from the constitution and now they can be elected up to four consecutive terms they need to be renominated by the party that elected them and so this would be the first slate of candidates that could have a longer horizon in their legislative career to cultivate their constituents
andt not just trying to get a new nomination of potentially a huge changely also with the democracy to allow reelection in north america not all of them some have big turnover rates but morena has the least with the legislators 15% approximately brazil and chile basically is a contrast that is universal with more than three force of the incumbents returning so if you look at the 19th century and the rates of return do not look too bad but before the reform
so to be in the mexican chamber whether or not that happens again but there should be something else to be looking at in that aspect. so to wrap up there is major changes to be expected that wouldn't be the changes we have been experiencing over the last three or four decades but this amounts to probably we would experience a non- unified government for the first time with the split opposition and they did not have time to show you but if you look at the votes and the heats of the three major
parties that they have one in the last election it amounted to at least 80%. that is no longer true now with those combined they cannot even capture 50% of the votes that is a massive change we will see a majority with morena and the evangelicals and then that would be on the right so this is altogether different potential and the set of events in this congressional election. thank you very much. [applause] >> you set us up perfectly for the grand finale looking at
state level in these elections on sunday. thanks for being here with us. i have admired your work for a long time. >> thank you very much. >> i think all of the talks are basically going in the same direction that when it opened up it was another historical election in mexico and they have been since 1988 or 1994 something new and different and interesting happened and they were always elections leaning toward democracy rather than lessle democracy or stability rather than less and what is interesting in 2018 elections is that something is coming to an end which is the mexican party system and something, we don't know that you pointed
out a few seconds ago, something is coming and we don't know what others we don't know it is good going to be good or bad for democracy and stability. i am going to talk today about the state elections after mexican government officials and politicians love to change electoral rules so i don't know if this is the 2014n' change or 2008 but a later change that brought into line several of the state governorships which use to be staggered equally across the six year presidential term now the nine governorships are held on the same day as the presidential election. why does this matter? it matters because it is is good to bring in more participationmo because
very people are very interested in presidential elections may be less than the gubernatorial so this should bring up participation which is a good thing especially with a new democracy but the problem however several party leaders thought of this at the time when you hold a gubernatorial election at the same time as a presidential election, it may be you have a good steak candidate for your party but a terrible presidential candidate soou that means otherwise is a good candidate could lose the election because of presidential coattails. so we may expect obviously in the gubernatorial elections what state politics does matter a great deal.
so what we see here is something new. this isa. morena it is a relatively new party, formed from the dying embers of the prd it was unified federalist party right after the elections. it was formed and survived into basically the creation of the new party that began in 2012 and continue through 2015 and then finally separated finally left the party and took out this new party of morena and so what you have here is this new party these
are the four states that will definitely win. if the polls are correct. sometimes that is not but let's just assume they are so we have the southern state and mexico city with almost 9 million voters, tabasco and morena. obviously in many of the states they used to be governed by one of the three big parties that were mexico city this was prd bastion since they first had elections in 1997. the democrats won very easily mexican city with all those millions of voters and all that money became the prd bastion no longer so i would watch very closely allied that will win that with very little
difficulty through amlo now tabasco is one of the southeastern states there is bipartisan and what you have is finally the prd with the last election in 2012 with a former pre-politician became prd politician and he was a terrible governor this helps because going in the corruption scandal and in terms of homicidal rates. very bad governor. and the morena candidate will win in this state then you have morelos the saddest story this was a bastion from 2000 where they could put any
candidate they want practically finally prd wins and it is a very happy occasionth for the prd but then again a bad governor and so then what happens he was a football star i don't know maybe the dallas cowboys football? but he will be the future governor of the mexican republic. morelos is relatively small but very important in many ways why? again because prd did an even worse job as a governor so now morena takes over the tabasco government and the name with
this incredible power that he has over the voters. >> now currently holding nine or 1132 state governorships including mexico city that is a very high number however of those nine governorships, it will probably lose one or three. except since 1995 but there were a lot of bastions back then and this is the only one that is still on the left. a lot of states were use to
win and this is the only one left. it is the only hope to out right win a state. now again this is from 1995 and it was a huge deal because it is a big rich state with a lot of voters and resources. this was also a bastion until the last election in 2012 and finally they took it back he wasn't ae terrible governor however for whatever reason he is out of the renee on -- out ofn the running and now was in far in second place and second place cannot win and now they will win the state which is basically a very small party.
not quite as stingy as the pt but on the fringe and now they can win in the republic. this is one of the only states that actually has a chance it isn't ten points ahead it is locked into the battle and this is it. this is the one state that they can win and right now they are out of contention and the rest of thef states. but if you look to the states, these are all very large states above 5 million people and the rest of them are moderate with 2 million voters. what does this mean?
that means they are losing their voter base. this is a very difficult and dangerous position for the one hegemonic party that came back in 2012 out of nowhere and beat everyone. and now it is out of contention in the governorships. so now it still could wind to more states and it is locked in a battle with the candidates so in fact the morena party could win two more states depending on how the chips fall and this is interesting because as a forme former -- look it is his son running for office a morena candidate we will see
how that comes out so now this is the wife of the former sort of governor who calls himself a former priest so now his party is starting to lose the ability to attract new talent and that there is something that is very corrupt ine the state of denmark or mexico which is where you are not pulling in new talent you are reusing old talent as in the case of an old time prd leader the old time corrupt good-natured politician. he sees which way the weather is turning and jumps to morena and is almost able to beat out the wife of the former governor. so what are the trends?
it isn't too clear so basically it's bad for all of the parties except for morena the mexican party system and 2015 as eric was talking about basically it was a three party system t and then it became a two-party system and two medium parties being prd and morena and what is happening in terms of governorship down the pike is that morena does very well in the three large traditional parties are doing very poorly. why does this matter for anyone but those state
elections? it is that the governors help their candidates win elections so this is part of their job i hope my local deputies in my federal deputies and my senators win that election because that is my job so basically because of factional problems but what will happen when you don't have a governor to help you? what does that mean in terms of winning future elections of state and federal level? it will be much more difficult to do so as a politician from the old traditional parties so this is why it will dramatically l have the lower
house in the senate come out no matter who wins the presidency i making it even stronger argument for the importance of the legislative elections they matter for the future and they will matter eventh more when the three major parties traditionally speaking lose many of those governorship governorships. it looks like everything is great for morena but it is a personal electoral vehicle it really isn't a party as such it is something that amlo created not liking the rest of the prd. so the question becomes a very important question to the future, what will happen with amlo when they are no longer politically active? we are speaking at lunch if he will hold out that the
question is if he makes it through the six year cycle everyone keep your fingers crossed, he will leave at the end of six years and then what happens to the party winning all the governorships in the party that is expected to win half? 50% of congress and even a greater percentage of the senate? will this parties survived the exit from politics of its leader? you could say he wouldn't leave after six years but 72? seventy-four his ability to influence politics definitelyy goes down with age even just with demographics you know that.
so what do these results mean for the two-party system? from the state populations i will show you some data on how many voters will live under morena. and what we will see is morena does extremely well and then to give out quite a bit for campaign finance and regular party activities so the money from the federal elections so how do they get the money? with the lower house of congress so then your national partyss structure from the public institution next in terms of the midterm elections this combines the reelection
what will happen to all of these morena candidates? you have to be nominated because they are geniuses. so that they lose control of the candidates they will force them to be renominated that will probably break apart after several electoral cycles but now a certain amount of power from those morena candidates so really the morena governors are aligned with thehe presidential elections with amlo could not come at a worse time and then to stand for reelection so this is such an odd moment the stars have aligned so we have a question about amlo and
morena. so let's.r just assume will stand roughly at 13 these are far smaller states that is left is the state of mexico a 14 million voters they almost lost the election so what will happen in the midterm elections in a year and a half or two years and in 2008 didn't fall apart as many expected it to because it held between 19 and 21 governorships including all the largest states but that
meant when the pre-governor saw local and federal elections, this no longer happened with the age of 21 states that it helps someone i came to the wilson center this is what i said. this is a bad thing in 2012 these are multimember districts the differentin regions jorge was talking about and then in the northeast they still did
pretty well but then in the southeastt and then it does well everywhere except mexico city but then prd loose the onen each region not had a single majority seat in the lower house of congress in these two regions and only did well in the fourth region where mexico city is. but now it is no longer prd bastion so what will happen to the 41 districts it could win
under the presidential candidate? it will disappear. the prd is p a party is still held in alliance at the presidential level with some governors i weather to be on opposite sides of that ideological spectrum not like a normal or natural alliance. we need to start worrying about the prd as a party as well as knees are the populations if morena is at the top it will basically win 25 million new voters they will just be living under the morena voteer on -- governor but if it wins yucatán then it
willll have 2 million voters in this election cycle if pan wins then we have 8 million so to end up on a note if we don't have governors from major parties able to win elections anymore for fewer than normal what will happen to the mexican party system? the party system despite the problems with actual parties or leadership have been able maintain over 90% of the votes and seats and then it fell to 80 but if eric is correct falling at 50% that is
a huge drop off with large party ownership over majority w districts. who cares? why is that a problem? as an economist i always hear choices good but what are you choosing? are you choosing the candidate or the alliance do you actually know about the morena candidate? do you like them? who knows a bunch of small parties do not represent manyogically speaking voters if those numbers fall we could be looking at basically not the collapse yet , but a dramatic change. thank you very much. [applause]
>> so everybody does bear out the title of this event it will be a historicc vote so now i will pose three questions to each of you then will open up for questions first, t17, talk about the significant number of voters of how you think that will pan out but i was going toto ask you do you see that it is likely morena can win a majority by 2021? that is a key date with the midterm election and of course axelrod said he will not attend any constitutional reforms because he doesn't have the majority but will he have it?
and for eric, talking about theou end how do you see them behaving with his greatly reduced position is there a mass desertion or from other parties as well? >> it is good that you mentioned the underside in mexico about what it means not to answer the question of the electoral difference but let's say the proper term sometimes the media confuses this with one sided but actually, the precise term is that people do not answer the question so that includes the people to
could change at least 20% of the people to answer to the electoral preference question. so to say have you made up your mind or to change or electoral preference? and then to have about 30% that you have the electoralav preference but it isn't very solid if you look at these people you can see they are torn but i don't see any evidence dramatically from the figures that we have already seen.
>> who's ever phone is going up maybe you cannot hear that but i can. [laughter]r] >> keep on yelling at them because i need to count one more thing. [laughter] 's i went to look at the answer to your question and what is interesting here is that as goes the governorship so goes the state legislature majority so it is very add to have the pan governor and a tree majority are not have that majority in the state legislature. so almost always but not always if you have a strong governor you'll have a majority and your state assembly. this matters as duncan mentioned to change that
constitution change that piece of legislation not only through the super majority but alsoss through the super majority through the state legislatures vote on that constitutional change piece of legislation which would be very difficult for amlo because he only has the six states so he cannot get any sort of super majority. so now what would obviously matter is if governors can negotiate with the lopez presidency may be for certain things to change the constitution but what really matters if youto are willing to become as i like to say, amlo
will not be another shop as or venezuela or chavez but it could be another philippines with the week parties and very strong presidency now to say as an authoritarian and autocrat to say if you have weaker parties you can be stripped from the president. so to answer your question i would say no, i don't see any chance of morena winning anything close to a majority of the state legislatures in the short term. >> just to make a point you are asking about the pri state
in congress and we are talking about the kings and queens but basically nonideological since they were born and to answer joy's question governors have been with their legislative careersen since the democratic era and what will happen with all of these governors when people are cash-strapped when the world economy slows down with the end of nafta and comes with the state government to be funded so you need to have good connections and it isn't likely that those
remnants will actually join morena so they not have those majorities elected on their own but they have those pieces. >> introduce yourself. >> department of justice i have two questions for the whole panel. in relation as the diversify one of those expectations is the second question coincidentally timed with the
turkish presidential election can mexico expect the same with the voting irregularities that have been seen another quote unquote democracies? thank you. >> thank you for this good presentation to questions. someone please provide a quick illustration and what that trend looks like recently how does that play out into the future? on the second question if i understand correctly the new administration takes office on the first ofd december when
>> i would like to answer the irregularity question is important to know that most of the irregularities up to the actual campaign not so much and why they were replaced by vote buying in large part so the buying is happening as we speak. [laughter] it has been going on but as thee it is not a perfect system whether the vote buying is enough for the certain states and legislatures it is very
difficult for the electoral authority to actually and to fiscally check as the campaign goes on and how spending is done where they thought it is officially on the order but most importantly which is with various parts in various regions of mexico the drug trade organizations has been very active to make their preferences for certain
>> eric. >> well, like to take the question. there's a big difference -- well two big differences between the mexico and the u.s., ate least. first that there's a five are month period between the election and inauguration and that is -- i think that would be a world record in waiting. no. so there's times to actually negotiate lots and lots of things during that time. the other difference is there's few cabinet posts that need congressional confirmation so they basically can be appointed right off. so, that's said, think we should have a full cabinet are in december 2nd or 3rd. that's how it's work in mexico. and just to -- i have no idea of cuba and u.s.-cuban -- what to expert there. that's not really my area. but are in the irregularity tied, just add one thing. there's a lot of and lot of
vote-buying but every part participate inside it. they love to boast about his earlier elections have been stolen from his -- by the fraud and there's basically no evidence of that. all pears participate vote-buying and basically they annull each oomph that's my take on it. that's my take on it. >> the video going on social media this more than, civil society group in mexico telling mexican voters to santa the now exchange for buying the vote, but the ten to 'ogee polling booth, mark the choice to take photograph of it and put a v on chit will suggest, will indicate it has been sold, a sold vote so won't count and you can be at the elect troll authorities will have an idea who was buying votes afterwardded am very pragmatic approach. whether or not they would do that or not, i don't know. very briefly on -- i think we're likely to see freezing to the
oil contracts, not the ones already issued but new oil actions. a focus on pemex so ehe their does that by further indebting the government of pemex and their limitations that and there will be a significant amount of tinkering around the edges of regulation and potentially secondary legislation as well. in cuba, i'm sorry. don't think we have anybody that can answer a question. my only response don't think they wereboard in foreign policy. don't thing interested in the bowl bowl liviaan revolution, there were people in his part who are, who spend time in venezuela and continue to associate with folks from the med dura regime, but at least recently had been quite disciplined. refuses to reject the boliviaan
resolution bus not speak in farve of it and auteur's on could would will be similarment cuba can offer a lot to venezuela but not so much to mexico. that's an unformed opinion. but a couple of questions. yes, we'll have the gentleman here and then the lady in the back. >> i'm a freelance journalist bases near washington, and a few weeks ago, we had hear -- she spoke about the risks of considering the result of this election as inevitable. she says, all the polls have obviously been saying or telling us for many months that anae ya
is to win but she says don't think about it as a done deal. she left a big question mark whether that was going to be the case. she discussed the issue of the undecided vote. jorge mentiones some of that but do you think this is a done del, that am lo for sure is winning on sunday and there's no way around? >> second question. >> i'm with the inside u.s. trade. my question is bats nafta negotiations. i'm curious if the panel can comment on what is am amlo win could mean in terms of substance and -- could we see maybe a break a long break while his team gets into place. >> back here. >> from the department of the treasury. i wonder if the panel could
dress the pt and the pes, it's going -- looked like they give up quite a lot of -- more rain -- they gave up quite a lot of space for this coalition. what kind of policyies could they be working on for these groups. >> three very quick answers. >> is it's done deal? i think that the chances of lopez obrador lose the election is various. you have a forecast which considers a narrow of plus-minus 12 percentage points for the pole and gives 90 % chance for lopez obrador to win. and it's about 99%. so, it can happen, yes. it is likely, it is not likely
that he will lose the election. >> thank you. joy. >> i'll take very quickly the policy options of the pt and the pes. the smaller parties are not known for their policy demands or their policy promises. these are not what you'd call ideologically active parties. what they tend to be, especially pt, they tend to be parties that are created by the resource incentives-the monetary incentives that they give to new parties and to existing parties, and so these are not normally seen as policy powerhouses. they don't give very men ideas. the only question is maybe pes as an evangelical party. i honestly don't think mexico is a very evangelical country.
it's becoming far less religious rather than more religious, and i don't see a very small party changing that in the near future. thank you. >> i would start with the smaller party positions. i think there's one anyones the past that actually raise more doubts than it answers, the green party. it has been systematically allied with the pri for over 15 years if not more and they haven't demands -- if you think of the german liberals, they're a tiny party that allies with other parties and ten to make policy demands systematically. they get cabinet positions and actually play the government role. the green has got -- they have one governor. they want one governorship but that's it. they've never actually demanded more so i'm not sure if the in
the parties will behave the same bay and not play the policy game basically get money or something else. and about the done deal, i think we can be sure -- the presidential race is hard to turn around, and there's more uncertainty but the other races. i think this is a very unlikely campaign, at least in the mexican recent tradition, where there's very little that can be actually changed from here to next sunday. >> great, thank you. on nafta. >> hang on, anybody wants to take it on nafta? all i would say is you read the statements about and a half tacoma moderates this position extraordinarily. he recognizes nafta has probably been good for mexico but needs to be improved and believes in his statement head ooh be the one to improve it. his dream situation would have been it was wrapped up before he
came into office because having to negotiate it particularly against the trump administration will be very difficult leadership says says he will send whatever the current negotiating team has done, and he has picked the chief going negotiator and respected economist. the minister is respected economist as well, left are leaning but orthodox. so thick we should expect that given he recognizes how important and a half tase for mexico prosperities he would save nafta as much as he could thank you for being with us. please thank our participants. [applause]
>> saturday, michelle obama is at the american library association's annual conference. >> people think i'm a unicorn, like i don't exist, people like me don't exist, and i know there's so many people any country and the world who feel like they don't exist because their stories aren't told. or they think thunder stories weren't worthy of being told. in this done we have got ton at the point where we think there's only a handful of legitimate stores that make you a true american. and so if you don't fall into that narrow sort of line, it's like you don't belong. but we all belong. and i think my book is just -- it's the ordinariness of a very extraordinary story. >> watch saturday night at 7:45
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