tv Washington Journal Jonathan Tamari CSPAN November 1, 2018 6:21pm-6:33pm EDT
on "q&a" on c-span. >> again, this week we've been taking a look at battleground states across the u.s. as we lead up to the midterm elections. pennsylvania is ours focus tody the, taking aan look at the stae at large and then some of the specific races involved. joiningg us for that conversation, jonathan tamari of the philadelphia inquirer. he serves as the national political writer for that publication. mr. tamari,at good morning. >> guest: good morning. thanks for having me. >> host: in a story you published yesterday, you took a look at two races that could serve as harbingers. can you walk us through those? >> guest: yes. the two races we focused on are ones that have not been kind of on thehe front lines for much of the coverage so far but that really both parties are look at as we get close to election day, and it's pennsylvania 10th district which is right around harrisburg represented currently
by republican scott perry and the 16th district which is in the northwest corner of the state in erie county represented currently by republican mike kelly. and these are two districts that are pretty republican. president trump won them by nine points in the harrisburg district, by more than twenty out in i the warren pennsylvania district.ct but they're both races where some polling has showed pretty tight the contest the especially in the one outside of harrisburg. democratic national groups are starting to put some money into those races. and really those are the kind of reach districts where democrats manage to win those, those could really be the sign that they're not just winning toss-ups, but that there might actually be a wave on. if there's going to be a wave, those might be two of the first places that we see it. >> host: looking at the 10th district, if the state did well for donald trump, why is scott perry having the issues that he has? >> guest: well, there's a few factors there. the biggest one probably is that, as a lot of people
probably know, the pennsylvania congressional map was redrawn earlier this year. so all the districts have new shapes and new kind of demographics and profiles. that district went through some significant changes. the president had won it under the old lines. under the new lines by nine percentage points. so it's much more moderate. instead of having only part of the city of harrisburg, it has the entire city now. again, it's much more of a moderate district where even the republicanch voters there, a lot of them previously voted for charlie dent who is the centrist from allentown, and congressman perry aligns with the freedom caucus, he's very conservative, andd democrats there have founda pretty strong candidate, a a pastor and a veteran named george scott. so you combine all those factors, and perry has never had a really close race. combine all those factors and suddenly it looks like it could be a tight one on election day. >> host: one of the local papers there in pennsylvania endorsed
george scott, and this is what they said about scott perry, saying that they endorsed scott perry in the last election cycle, urging him to become more bipartisan. now they think that voters should give george scott a chance to help change the tone. he's decide dod -- decidedly more liberal, they add this: he's willing to reach across can the aisle. can you factor that into scott perry? has he changed as far as being many office? >> guest: scott perry has not. scott perry has stuck who he was when he was elected and through his time many office. he's very conservative. he's devoted to the conservative causes. as i said, he caucuses with the freedom caucus which is, you know, really the most conservative wing of the house republicans. and he's unyielding in those beliefs, and he's continued to stick to those beliefs even though his district nows has changed just a few months ago. and so that's where the challenge is, and that's why some democrats and some republicans think that can be a
really tight race. he's note. as many line with his district's politics as he was before map was redrawn. >> host: the 16th district that you spoke about. one of the headlines describing this race described it as a bare knuckle fight. would you agree with that assessment? >> guest: it doesou certainly sm that way. there have been charges and countercharges of lightening, of completely distortar thing the record. -- lying. the democratic challenger has had some ads that have come under s sharp scrutiny from fact-checkers. and it's an interesting one, again, because that's a district that was very pro-trump, but it has voted -- it does have some democratic roots. it voted narrowly for barack obama in 2008. and so that's a tough one. i think the 10th is the one where people think there's more of a chance for an upset, but that'sre certainly one that has also come on line recently, the 16th. >> host: this is in the. 1st district of pennsylvania, this is brian fitzpatrick versus scott wallace.
>> guest: yeah. this is the toughest race in pennsylvania and probably in the philadelphia area. this is a very classic swing district that has regularly gone, flipped back and forth between the parties. wavewe years have seen democrats and republicans win it depending on which way the wave was going. brian fitzpatrick is -- he has a very independent brand, and that started with his brother who was a congressman, mike fitzpatrick. it's continued with brian. he has tried to really be, build up his bipartisan credentials. he voted against the republican plan to repeal the aca, but he voted for the tax bill. and his channeler is scott wallace -- challenger is scott wallace who's a wealthy philanthropist who's poured a lot of his own money into that race. you look at the district, it's really evenly balanced. it's a place where in 2017 democrats came out and won a whole bunch of row offices in bucks county that they had not won in decades, if not longer. and that was a real sign of kind
of that backlash to president trump. i don't think anybody was actually that concerned with the row offices, it was more democrats just wanted to get out and vote. so that's the challenge for brain fitzpatrick. he's probably one of the best positioned republicans to try to withstand the a wave. so if democrats manage to beat him, that's also a sign that a lot of these toss-up races may break towards the democrats. >> host: you spoke about money, how much money is coming in from outside factors particularly for support of republicans many these racesesome. >> guest: yeah, i don't have -- i couldn't put a specific number on it, but it's certainly significant. the philadelphia media market itself is a really expensive market to begin with. you've got the fitzpatrick race there in the 1st district, over in new jersey and south jersey there's another race, so money is, again, pouring into the same media market for that. in the 10th and 16th, it's a little less because those are a little bit more of a reach for democrats and those markets aren't as expensive. there's certainly a lot of
national attention. >> host: when you're watching on election night, what are the telltale signs for you? >> guest: again, i think the first one is what goes on in that 1st district. if brian fitzpatrick loses, i think that's a good sign democrats are going to win a majority because a really tough race. he's a strong incumbent, and he loses, i think that's a sign that a lot of incumbents are going to be in trouble and that it's a nationalized race. your local profile does not count as much as democrats' desire to vote against republicans and put a check on president trump. so that's the first one i'm going to be watching. and then i'll be watching the 10th and 16th to see if democrats pull off an upset in any of those . they do, it's not just a majority, it might really be a big wave for them. if they lose in that 1st district, democrats could still win house, i think, but it'll probably be a nail-biter and something we'll be watching late results coming in to see if they've done it or not. >> host: our guest is the
national political writer for theam philadelphia inquirer. philly.com, if you want to read the way he's following these races. mr. tamari, we thank you for your time today. >> guest: thank you, appreciate it. >> c-span's "washington journal" live every day with news and policy issues that impact you. coming up friday morning, it's the 25th anniversary of the c-span bus program. c-span digital media vice president richard weinstein and marketing manager will be on to talk about how the bus has evolved over the years. and bipartisan policy center's president discusses how states have improved voting systems since 2014. then susan mcmanus on florida's electoral history. be sure to watch c-span's "washington journal" live at seven eastern friday morning. join the discussion. ..
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>> with five days until the midterm election president trump will be holding a campaign rally for republican candidates in misery. he will be speaking to voters and supporters in columbia. we have? 's life starting at 7:30 p.m. eastern here on c-span2. >> cap next, missouri senate debate between and comet democrat claire mccaskill and republican challenger josh hawley. courtesy of k nbc-tv in kansas city. this is about one hour. >> the final missouri debate for the u.s. senate between the incumbent claire mccaskill and missouri attorney general josh hawley. >> good evening and welcome and thank you for joining us for the coverage of this debate tonight. the misery u.s. senate seat. i'm chris, joined by political