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tv   [untitled]    March 19, 2012 11:30am-12:00pm EDT

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if we have any. yes, all the way in the back. >> thank you very much. on american side, the government agency, japan opened a project in france what is called smart cities in lyon. and this crisis will rebuild the power of japanese technology in using energy rather than talking about whether we use nuclear power plant. is there more awareness and better knowledge in u.s. about japanese technology and using technology whether for consumer, industry, and so on? >> thank you. i'm happy to take the floor, but i'm not sure i can answer your question effectively. i think one of the large pieces of learning, if we're going to take it back to japan for just a second, the extent to which the
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japanese social response could be -- could be imported, if you excuse that use of language. but i'm not 100% sure i understand yet how thoroughly american industry, society, and local institutions are learning from fukushima. just add on the case about japan's future energy mix, though. the 2010 energy policy has been abandoned, and that's the policy that ambassador demming was referring to. japan is no longer committed to 53% of nuclear power. it's not even committed to sustaining current levels at 27%, 28%, 29%, depending on whose figures you use. there's a short-term problem of how does the japanese economy get access to its energy needs, which of course in today's volatile oil markets is, you know, very difficult. japan has turned to lng imports as you all know, but container ships and the ability to transport that level of sustenance over the short term is also part of the logistical challenge. the longer-term question of what japan's future energy mix is going to be should come out, at
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least the government advisory committee stud studying this question, should be out in a few months. but it will be massive investment in renewables. absolutely deep investment in renewables. and to some extent the success of the i don't ever sight reform of the nuclear power industry, the stress test, you know, explaining carefully to local governments and the prime minister, my guess, is will have to go local government to local government to ask for their support in turning these power plants back on. without local government support, you're not going to get nuclear energy at any level in japan. i doug doubt that you're going to get all 54 reactors back online, but you must get some of them back online to navigate the short-term needs. >> question right here. >> thank you so much for being here. cindy wait with tv asahi. i think you all mentioned when these disasters happened just
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how it built momentum between the relationship between u.s. and japan and, you know, made the two countries kind of tighter knit. how has this helped in terms of the security alliance, specifically in terms of the futenma issue? have we gained momentum on this issue? where are we standing with this right now? thank you. >> i guess that's me. thanks. that's a great question. i would say that really in the midst of this historic pivot to asia that secretary clinton described in foreign policy and that others in our government have talked about, i think really this would be impossible without the kind of critical alliance relationship that we have with japan. as sheila said in her remarks, really the u.s./japan alliance is critical to stability and security in the asia pacific region, that we need a strong japan. the united states needs a strong japan. we need a strong alliance, i think, so carry out the kind of
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goals that we and our friends and allies in the region share. and so when it comes to things like futenma and other issues, really i think the close and cooperative relationship that we enjoy with japan has been and will continue to be absolutely key to moving forward in the future. >> can i ask you also, sheila or rust, about the public perception of the self-defense forces after 3/11? japan obviously has had a, you know, conflicted relationship with the military, constitutional restrictions. obviously it's called the self-defense forces. but they played the crucial role not for a day or a week but for months. has there been any public opinion polling down to show how people look at them now? >> i just saw some numbers recently. i think 93% of those polled supported the role of the japanese self-defense forces in
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the recovery operation. so i think the answer is a resounding yes, the japanese people really have welcomed the role that not just the sdf but, i mean, first responders, you know, policemen, firemen, other who is ran in as others ran out as the expression goes. i think it heralds a new chapter in public perception of the self-defense forces. >> just a very brief follow-on, because i agree with that. i think the japanese public -- if you were watching the crisis in real time, one of the things that was really fascinating as an observer of japan is the role of social media, twitter, et cetera. people were commenting on what was unfolding in the days, weeks, months after march 11th. the social media commentary on the self-defense force and other first responders was really astounding. for somebody like me who's watched the debate in japan on its self-defense force, its constitution and by extension the bilateral relationship, i was impressed with how deeply the public appreciated the heroism, the bravery, and the
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organizational capacity of their postwar military. and i think ambassador demming is right to say that the u.s. was there to help and assist in that tremendous task, but i would just caution those of you who asked about futenma directly. i think public attitudes towards japan's own military and towards the combined effort to respond by the united states and japan doesn't necessarily translate into this base or that base support. right? so this is a difficult problem. it's going to be a did i feel conversation. i think both of our governments have already demonstrated a certain flexibility in the discussions going forward. but, again, this overall good will that you sense in japan towards the self-defense force may be something that we should be thinking about in terms of future conversations about u.s. forces and japanese forces working together in the region. >> other questions. right here in the middle, and then up in the front. >> my name is isabel. i'm from the project 2049
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institute. i really appreciate your comments about kind of countering the argument that japan is turning inward. i was wondering if you could make several more comments about japan's global engagement and international contributions in pcs ko, peacekeeping operations or development assistance and what that's looking like for the future. thank you. >> i think most recently we were very hearened by the decision by prime minister noda to dispatch ground self-defense force engineers to south sudan in support of the work going on there. and this is, you know, following on to operations they have currently in east timor and the golan heights. and of course also prooeflsly forces were sent to pakistan to deal with the floods there as well as to haiti, of course. i think this is a welcome trend,
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japan's engagement internationally and again stepping into harm's way in support of the will of the international community. it's something we certainly hope to see continue. >> also, this has not gotten a lot of attention, but japan has become quite active in anti-piracy for the first time. they have a small facility in djibouti with aircraft and some maritime self-defense forces there to help on the piracy thing. it's unprecedented. it's really a police action, not a military action, but it's another example of how japan is cooperating on issues of great concern to all of us. >> a very brief follow-on about oda. in the weeks after march 11th, of course, there was a great konsation on japanese fiscal resources. at one point certain people argued japan should cut its oda to be focused at home. i think some people very
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strongly resisted that impulse. it's a natural impulse, but they resisted. also, there was so much evidence of how much the global response to japan -- it was in part due to the extent to which japan had engaged in disaster relief activities abroad, even in places like kandahar, as dr. ogata likes to tell people, people raised money to give to the japanese victims of march 1. i think there's been a general understanding that japan's oda has been an asset to japan post march 11th and it's a role japan plays to tremendous result around the globe not only in terms of disaster relief but just in terms of japan's own influence globally. >> we have three minutes left, but i'd like to get in one last question. robin, if you would like, come right up here in the middle. so we don't have to be relatively brief. >> robert barrington, retired foreign services officer. several reasons for the decline
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between the exchange between u.s. and japan are reasons that we've often heard -- america's scary, america's expensive, japanese corporations don't value american education, et cetera, et cetera. what can we do after 3/11 to encourage more japanese to come to the united states? >> well, i can start that one off. right now, we have something, an initiative in which it's essentially to build on the good will developed between our two countries during the operation. it's a public/private partnership in which we focus on young people from the tohoku region and through things like sports exchanges, educational exchanges, cultural exchanges, entrepreneurship training, things like that, really encouraging people in the tohoku area to look at the united states as a place they can perhaps study or at least help fulfill their dreams post 3/11.
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a lot of young people have lost their families and it's been very heartening seeing them react to this program and seeing it as a way they can really just help to fulfill their dreams and generate hope in their lives. >> thank you. we're actually out of time. i'd love to do more, but i want to thank all of you for coming and spending time with us today. please join me in thanking our panel. [ applause ] good afternoon, everybody. give people one more moment to sit down and greet the people they know in the audience.
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good afternoon. i'm danielle pletka, vice president at the american enterprise institute. it's a really somber anniversary that we're gathered here today to commemorate one year and one day since the terrible earthquake and tsunami that struck japan, killing so many. we're going to be discussing a number of issues relating to the tragedy. first of all, the remarkable recovery of japan. the strengthening of the u.s./japan relationship, one that is so important to us in the pacific. the remarkable effort that was undertaken by our military forces to come to the aid and rescue of our friends in japan. i'm so glad that we had the resources to do that. we may not have those resources in the future, but we were there in time, at the right time, to do the right thing for our allies, and that's an extraordinarily important job ff o for our military. and to talk about what the future holds, not just in the relationship but in the recovery of japan.
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i'm honored to welcome the ambassador of japan to lead off the discussion. ichiro fujisaki became the japanese ambassador to the united states almost four years ago. prior to that he served as ambassador and firm rep to international organizations in geneva. and prior to that he was japan's deputy minister for foreign affairs. i welcome him to the podium right now. thank you, mr. ambassador. [ applause ] >> thank you very much for the kind introduction. ladies and gentlemen, looking at this crowd, i've been afraid that many of you, this is already 12th time or 24th time that you're going to hear from me. i was thinking if i can say something new. no. not too much. but please forgive me. the compensation is that i'll be very short.
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yesterday i was reading a leading newspaper here. i was a bit surprised that the top article, top line started like, "one year later, nothing is solved." and -- wow. with a picture, a big picture of a young lady with a little boy. and i think i don't share that view. i am not saying that everything has been solved. it's not at all true, because it was a huge disaster, as you know. so we can't recover only in a year time. but we can say we are on recovery road. now, i'll give you a chart of
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paper that illustrates what it was and where we are on damage and nuclear issue. the number one is human loss. as you can see, that is close to 19,000 people still either missing or found dead. this is ten times that of katrina. damage to building, infrastructure. katrina, it was reported as $5.5 billion. 3/11, it was $44 billion. and on top of that, there were equipments, housings, so all together it adds up to $212 billion. you can see how huge this
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disaster was. as for effect on gdp, 2012 estimate was $1.6 growth before 3/11. after 3/11, the estimate is 0.9. it's not only because of earthquake and tsunami but because of yen appreciation as well. yen rate is has appreciated more than 30% after wall street crash in 2008 where renminbi is less than 10% and euro depreciated 10% against dollar. how can you compete in such a situation? supply-chain issue, number four. i am always trying to focus on this, because i think supply chain is vastly exaggerated. if you look at -- this is an frv
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figure. 2007, u.s. auto production as 100. then 2008 wall street crash. because of lack of consumption, it went down to 36 and that level for some time. compare to that after earthquake/tsunami, if p there was a lack of supply of parts from japan, but it went down to 85, stayed for a little -- very short period, then it recovered now to already more than hundred level. this is u.s. car production. and as in state of the union the president said, u.s. car industry's robust, you can see that, as well. so i think the supply-chain issue, in my view, yes, i'm not saying that there was no problem. we had problem, and that was
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affecting production but not as big as some people have an image of. now, the recovery of major affected infrastructure, highway. this blue bar is where it was right after the earthquake. went down to 24%. in two weeks, highway is 100%. rail, completely shut down. there were 26 bullet trains running at the time, but no passenger action because as soon as the train caught seismic wave, it stopped. but we were able to launch to 100% level in two months because we had to do the maintenance for the railways as well, the rails. now, it is taking time.
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it is up to 73% yet in this march because a lot of debris in the sea and the port is filled with -- so not 100% yet. now, electricity. in tokyo metropolitan area, tepco -- i'm sorry -- tohoku area first, went down to 16%. recovered to 83% in three days, and in week time 95%. tokyo area, this is not only tokyo but quite a big area from chiba, shizuoka, those places, it went down to 79% and went up to -- in week time to 100%. so these infrastructure recovery was pretty quick.
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even quicker than a lot of people thought.was, as you can dama damage. as for human life and also jobs, 81,000 people lost their lives -- jobs, i'm sorry. 51,000 acres were inundated. 21,000 ships were lost. so there a lot of damage. we are trying to recover it by putting lot of budget now into this. and government is saying in four years time we will recover 95% of all those land that was inundated. but the serious issue here is still this nuclear issue. i will put this into perspective. in iaea, international atomic
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energy agency, they have a scale called international nuclear events scale which is from the lowest one to highest seven. seven is the most serious accident. one is the most minor. and three miles, 30 years ago is classified as number five level. this fukushima together with chernobyl is seven, the most serious. however, there is a great difference between two because in fukushima, nuclear reactor did not explode. there was an explosion of the
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house around that by hydrogen and it was not an atomic nuclear explosion. the other is that there was a container vessel around atomic -- nuclear reactor. so, because of that, these two reasons, the level of discharged amount of radioactive material in fukushima is 1/7 of chernobyl. there was no death toll, immediate death toll from fukushima. in chernobyl there was 31 immediate and there was a lot of people affected, more than hundreds as you know. so, that is the great difference. even if they are on the same scale. and as a result, radiation level in tokyo and u.s. and france is not that different, almost equal now. tokyo is as of today.
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u.s. and france i have figures from some time ago. i think you can say it's almost equal. however, nuclear reactors are not operating now. we had 54 nuclear reactors. this is rule three. one being united states with 104, two france with 57, and japan, 54. and about 11 was stopped because of earthquake and tsunami. however, today, only two operating and all 52 is shut -- is not operating. why? this is because every 13 months you have to put nuclear reactors
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into maintenance, and after that you would put into stress test and after that you will -- government has to decide if this is sufficient level and then have discussions with local communities. this is not a legal requirement to have local community but this is customary. so, we have not arrived at that stage to restart nuclear reactor. this is the situation. so, we are only operating two out of 54 now. and radioactive road map to restoration, here number 9. as for reactor itself, last december we came to a situation equivalent to what they call cold shut down. that is lower than 100 degrees centigrade. and we have some leakages from time to time, but in general, i
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think situation we can say is under control now. that was declared in december. however, that does not mean that everything is already taken care of. we need a lot of time because we have to take care of contaminated debris and we have to decommission reactor and spent fuel rods. it will take years. but one thing i can say is that we are now under control of the situation. meanwhile, because 52 is not operating we are dependent more and more on thermal energy. as you can see here, 10, thermal energy in 2010 december before the crisis we were dependent about 62%. now we are dependent 86%.
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although consumption itself, we have gone down because of conservation as you can see, you see that nuclear, and now this is december a few year, now it's even lower. and in two months, if we don't restart we'll have no nuclear. this is a very serious situation for japan but as you can see, we are dependent more and more on thermal energy at this juncture. one thing behind this is that you can see this recent poll which was taken about three weeks ago. 24% of japanese thinks that we should abolish using nuclear. 53% thinks we should draw down,
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decrease the dependency. 15% thinks we can continue on. this is the sort of public image of nuclear. it was very different right after the earthquake tsunami and nuclear accident many thought we can go on but this number is going down and we have to reflect this thinking. because this summer, we will try to seek a new energy mix. we were thinking that we would increase dependency on nuclear. we were dependent about 26% or so. now we were thinking that we would increase it to 53% level in 2030. but this is not possible, i thi think, with this public
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thinking. we will have to review the energy mix but we will have to decrease dependency on nuclear than increase. this is what the prime minister is already saying. we cannot totally dispose it. we will try to see what would be the right balance here. i was visiting in japan ten days ago. i went and met the mayor there, the deputy mayor and i met the governor of the prefecture and i asked them what would be the message to american friends. two things. one, please convey our thanks to american people.
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second, please don't forget us. it will take more time to recover. please trade with us, please invest in us, please visit us. that was the plea, cry, and i'm conveying this to you. because temporary visitors as you can see, dropped very heavily. the blue dots are -- so toward the end of the year it caught up but during the spring and summer. but this is natural. but because of the situation that i'm explaining in that most part of japan there's no contamination and food and water and everything is monitored very carefully. it is safe now so. ea


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