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tv   Politics and Public Policy Today  CSPAN  November 30, 2015 1:00pm-2:01pm EST

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house. >> in 1957, the cleveland police went to dalry mapp's home who they suspected to be harboring a bomber, demanded entry, she refused access without a warning later returning with a document they claimed was a warrant, they forced themselves into the home and searched the premises. not finding their suspect, police instead confiscated a trunk containing obscene pictures in mapp's basement, she was arrested and sentenced to seven years for the contraband, she sued and her case made it all the way to the supreme court. we will examine the case of mapp v ohio and explore the evidence obtained through illegal searches and seizures and how this and other supreme court rulings transform police practices nationwide and that's coming up on the next landmark cases, live tonight at 9 eastern on c-span, c-span3 and c span radio. and for background on each case while you watch, order your copy of the landmark cases' companion
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book for 8.95 plus shipping at c-span.org/landmarkcases. and live starting shortly here on c-span3, the world energy outlook from the international energy agency, hosted by the center for strategic and international studies in washington, d.c. the international energy agency advises countries on their energy policy. we will be hearing today from the executive director of the group on the energy outlook through the year 2040. this is supposed to start shortly.
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while we wait for this discussion on the world energy outlook to begin here at the center for strategic and international studies we will show some of an earlier conversation we had about u.s. strategy on countering violent extremism. this is from today's "washington journal". >> social media and online messaging campaign. mr. fernandez, you previously
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served as coordinator to for the state department's center for counterterrorism communications. explain what that office does and how it tries to achieve its goals. >> well, that was a small operation that was founded in 2011 under the leadership of secretary clinton to try to begin to address to begin to look at the question of al qaeda propaganda or the great rise of isis. so, the idea was there be a one-shot -- one-stop-shop that would focus on that issue. as for al qaeda, they have always said how important this was for them. for the west, the u.s. government, maybe we treated it with less importance or less significance than our adversaries have. that was the idea basically. >> what are the resources, the staff and budgeting? >> since i have retired from the government, i don't know what they have done in the past year. it was always a small operation. you know, it was tiny, actually. i testified before the house in 2012 and the chairman said, you
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are the head of the smallest organization to ever testify before this committee. $5 million a year. you know, about 40-odd people, some of them detaillies from other parts of the government, a handful of people focusing on social media, operators in the languages, arabic, in urdu, somali and then added a little tiny english program at the end. so, that's what it basically was. and you left in february? >> yes. >> why? >> i was retiring. i retired from the government after 32 years. >> and what was your thought on the state of that department as you were leaving, especially with isis and what's become such a potent social media campaign? >> i think the problem is the center was started at a time when a lot of people in washington, in the administration and outside the administration were declaring victory. you know, there's that unfortunate victory moment of president bush's on the aircraft
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carrier that we all talk about. this administration's victory moment lasted three years, between the death of bin laden and the fall of mosul. that almost corresponds exactly with the genesis. so i noticed there was strong support in the beginning when secretary clinton was there and then after she left, i think there was less supportle it became politicized so it was perfect i was leaving. it became politicized so it was perfect i was leaving. if our viewers with ament to call in and have questions about this battlefield that the united states is fighting isis on, alberto fernandez is our guest for about the next 40 minutes or so. democrats 202-748-8000.
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republicans, 20274-748-8001. what is the strategy on this battlefield? >> it has been said, i said it and others, but it needs to be said over and over, there isn't a way -- isis propaganda is unprecedented. it is powerful. they use it in very interesting ways. they are the most successful terrorist group of terrorism in the media. that sound sounds daunting. we talk about propaganda and messaging, it is connected to the real world. isis' propaganda goes through the roof when mosul falls and when al baghdadi declares himself kale live. there is a connection between messaging and the real world.
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the rise of the islamic state is what gives its propaganda power and credibility and oomph, that power and that strength. not the other way around. sometimes we confuse the medium for the message and entity we are putting up. >> here is an example of the cscc's message. you can get a sense of how they are trying to counter what isis is putting online. >> we spoke to an islamic state defector in turkey, face hidden, voice disguised. i joined them out of fear, he says, some who joined really believe killing and winning is the way to spread islam. when they discover that's all wrong, they can't leave. the defector said he watched an
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amir, or commander, give a knife to his 8-year-old son. he made him cut off a prisoner's head, he told me. he said the son of an amir should learn early. this is part of the state department's think again, turn away campaign. how effect stiff this messaging getting through? >> we are facing a colossus. grossly ridiculously outnumbered by isis in association media. we need to recognize that second
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of all, the challenge always is in propaganda or messaging is how do you measure something that doesn't happen? how do you measure the person that sees that and says, oh, i'm not going to become a terrorist, i'm not going to join that, that's inherently difficult. i think that's good effort, a worthwhile effort, certainly, the voices of detectors of recap thors - -- r -- recap thors, of victims, this is not bad. one is you don't know hot person actually is because they are afraid for their life. you don't know their name or see their face. isis propaganda is about me talking to you and openly declaring my views and loyalty in all of that one of the challenges we face, defectors, people who have left terrorist organization are going to be a little leery about going on television. >> how much of a learning curve has there been to get to something that you say is good
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at this point? has there been failures along the way for the cscc? >> i think lots of failures, cs c. c was created because of failure. it was created because of the recognition that after ten years after 9/11, the u.s. government and indeed the west had not done such a good job in countering terrorist propaganda. you know, i think the work of cs c. c is good. it's good today. i think the working-level people, if they can, you know, be freed from political interference of the white house, are doing good work, but it always is and always has been a very small operation and what you need is a network. islamic state has a network of propaganda, doesn't have one entity. so right now, strangely enough, we are outgunned and outmanned in that space, not saying the u.s. government or cscc, but you take everybody in the world messaging in that anti-isis
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space -- >> still being -- >> still outnumbered compared to what isis brings to that battle. >> alberto fernandez is our guest, former coordinate for the state department center for strategic counterterrorism communications. first up in virginia, line for independents, rod, you're on with alberto fernandez. >> caller: thank you. i think we give some legitimacy to the islamic state when we call them the islamic state. why can't we come up with another term? the organization i think is what some people call them in the middle east. and it is a battle of words, even when you say islamic terror, you know, there's a huge rift in our domestic politics on what is islamic terror -- terrorists. i would imagine these people like being called islamic terrorists. i will take your answer off the air. thanks. >> in arabic, they are either called. [ speaking a foreign language ]
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what al jazeera calls them or daesh. you have to be careful about language, but you also have to be careful not to be afraid of your shadow. if the islamic state makes a powerful claim to being an islamisting islamist organization, it do you need to challenge them on that territory. maybe the u.s. government can't do that but somebody needs to challenge them on that. sometimes i see some of the propaganda in the middle east and they will say things like -- we don't understand why the islamic state did this. why did they blow up these temples in palmyra? there are ideas taken for them being blown up. so, yes, we need to be careful, not about stigmatizing people,
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not about being dumb in this battle but need to kind of take the ideological fight to them in that space. u.s. government's probably not the best one to do that. >> who do you think could be, 'cause there are non-government actors getting involved now, anonymous -- the online group saying that they are going to take on the islamic state. >> it takes a network to fight a network, so you need more of everything. you need the direct approach, the thing that cscc did. you need the voices of muslim ngos, you need the voices of young people. you need the voices of people who are sarcastic or annoying or trolling in all of that. it is not one thing. 'cause that's what isis does. isis propaganda is not one thing. it's a network producing a variety of different stuff, materials for different audiences. >> ali is waiting, essex line for democrats. ally, good morning. >> caller: good morning. >> go ahead, ali.
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>> caller: yeah, my question is, i am a muslim and i'm an american. my problem i'm having with the american policy is like now in election season, the rhetoric coming from the republican right is really not helping, also stop calling these people islamic state, they are not a state, just a bunch of crazy people, just giving them credit. i just wish the saudi government that america is supporting, creating more of this problem. these people to fight these cowards, but the american or the western world, any up three to is a problem, they will come to the western world for help, why can't they go to this fight?
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>> those are good points. the question of who they are and who they rerngt the islamic state, put that in quotation marks, tries to do is to appeal to a specific sell laugh any islamic world view. the governments have moved the needle toward sell laughism, jihadist sell laughism. a battle is brewing about affordability, credibility in the muslim world and in the sunni arab muse limb world. world energy outlook
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presentation. my name is sarah lass locker the director of the energy national security program here at csis and we are very, very pleased to have fatty bar role, i know is a stranger to none of you here today as the executive director of the international energy agency to do the presentation. today's a really important day for a number of reasons. we certainly find ourselves in an interesting place in the oil price cycle. we have got the kickoff of the paris climate negotiations and certainly all of us have deep concern for the security situation in paris that we have experienced the last several weeks. those of us in the energy world for a while now, we know fati is one of the world's preemnent experts in just about every aspect of the energy industry. during a time in which we are going through such amazing and transformative changes in that industry, it is really wonderful to have somebody like fati at the hell of an agency like the national energy agency, so critically important to a lot of
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the international frame works and systems we have got for dealing and thinking about the ever-dynamic field of energy. i would like to welcome fati to make remarks, the energy outlook and a bit of a discussion about how he sees some of the trends that's going to lay out before us. on behalf of john hess, a member of our board here today, frank, charlie curtis and the rest of the energy team here as well as john, i wanted to say thank you again for coming and delivering the speech here at csis. thank you. [ applause ] >> thank you very much for the kind introduction. good afternoon, ladies and
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gentlemen, a great pleasure to come back to csis. it is a pleasure and honor to come to csis regularly and try to share our views about the global and energy markets and thank you very much for giving me this opportunity. so in the next half an hour or so, i will try to share with you our views, where we are today in the energy markets and where we think we will be heading and what are the implications of those. now, when we look at the -- this year, where we are, we see the local oil prices throughout the fossil fuels one important note
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to underline here is we estimate that in 2015, the oil investments were 20% lower than the previous year and more importantly, we expect this decline in investment will continue in 2016. and we have not seen this last 30 years decline in investments two years in a row. when there was a decline, which was rare, there was next year, a rebound. two years in a row, we are seeing a decline in investments and also for coal like oil and gas, we see coal prices very low, about $50, mainly out of
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what is happening in china and in some oecd countries, the u.s. and europe, we see a decline in demand, lots of coal in the market, so $50. and again, since long time, we have not seen this happening. oil prices, $50, natural gas prices, only 18 months ago, the l & g price in asia was $200, about $7 today. the coal prices a lot. this is one of the major preoccupation of the energy community today. the second preoccupation is paris. we are seeing some important signals before paris meeting. for example, in terms of the
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countries, more than 150 countries now make pledges, commitments to the united nations that they are going to reduce the emission in the year 2013 by this much. it has never been the case that so many countries are making such commitments, poor countries, rich countries, north, south, mark exporting, energy importing countries for the first time, a basis hopefully and agreement coming from paris. a major growth coming from energies. i will tell you in a few minutes, our projections for the future but what happened last year is a very important fact
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that we can expect more from paris. what happened last year is about 50%, half of the new power capacity addition was -- other 50%, all other fuels put together. so, coal plus oil plus gas plus nuclear, 50%. renewables alone, 50%. such, i believe, renewables are not anymore a niche field, they are becoming a mainstream field, when you look at the numbers. other encouraging news before the paris agreement hopefully comes out is what is happening in the fossil fuel subsidies. today, we have about 500 billion u.s. dollars of subsidies for
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fossil fuels, which puts their price artificially low. it is very unfair to renewables or efficiency measures if you, the competing fuel, if you make the price artificially low, how they can compete with renewable energy. so, you can think of 100-meter race, and then fossil fuels start from 50 meters to reach the finish -- finish the race and renewables start from scratch. there for example subsidies are definitely and fossil fuels are, in my view, public enemy number one for sustainable, for renewables and more important, for energy agency. now, these are the two major preoccupations today, low energy
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price in the environment and what is going to come from paris and the question is to understand which one of them are cyclical, which one of them will have changes and we try to answer this question. then we look at the demand growth. where does it come from, look at the so-called advanced economies, total energy demand is in a decline, mainly as a result of lower income growth, population growth came to a situation and using energy more and more efficiently. from emerging countries especially, i would underline southeast asia, major demand growth center, indonesia, thailand, the philippines, that part of the world is growing
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very strongly and heading to the global energy demand growth, china is very important, as usual, but i will come to china in a moment. but the main driver engine of the global energy demand growth will go to india. modest economic assumptions we expect india in 2014 to consume as much as the united states, even though per capita, energy consumption will be about 40% lower than the global usage. very important country and it is the country every year that we focus on one country and this year, it was india. and i will talk to you about this in a few minutes. one important issue i want to highlight is that the energy
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traits will be more and more people taking place in asia, oil, gas and coal, they are all moving to asia. 80% of coal trade in asia, three-fourths of the oil trade in asia and two-thirds of the gas trade, again in asia, they have a destination in asia, all these fuels. now, to bring to your attention what the economics of different fuels and technologies, just to give you an idea, we expect the cost of solar and onshore wind and efficient products, that is efficient refrigerators, efficient cars, efficient lighting, they are becoming cheaper as a result of learning by doing. let me give you one example on the solar pv. china pushing the solar pv meant
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in the last five years, the solar pv cost declined by a factor of four. a big decline there. so they are becoming competitive in many case and efficient products are also becoming competitive. many people who work on the oil business on the other sector, we see oil and gas, that would be efficiency gains to push the cost down but more and more oil will come from more -- the complex and of a range the cost of oil and gas production extraction will go up and it is the very reason or one of the reasons why we expect, i will come to it in a moment that we expect the oil prices may well gradually increase in the next years to come.
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this speaks to oil and we have seen a major growth of oil production in the united states, tied to oil, perhaps demand but when i had the privilege to -- to present in 2009, we sat here, that is a silent revolution taking place in north america with all these implications and we are seeing this as a result of lack tight oil and shale gas, huge implication for energy works for geopolitics but a lot to oil sec suri -- security in terms of lack tile oil but press is a factor for the profitability of the many project there is and our expectation is if the prices remain at these levels, we may
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lose significant amount of oil in the united states. for example, the prices remain about $50, we may lose from today about 2 million barrels per day and it is the very reason putting together the -- all other factors for just what we see today, what is happening in iraq. our production expectation of iraq is revised down. another major driver of the lots of oil in the markets today. and oil demand growing higher than 1 million barrels per day, we expect that the oil prices will gradually increase toward 2020, $80 is the price that the market can rebalance in order to bring profits to the investors
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and it is our expectations, our essential expectation that the oil prices will gradually increase looking a what the will happ -- what will happen in the united states with the current price and also the investment loss and what is happening in canada, brazil and other parts of the world. so, our expectation of our essential scenario is oil prices will gradually move toward 2020 go to $80 price level. but we also know this other school of thought which -- all respect to that say $50, ten years is the new normal. and this is something that one could -- one shouldn't exclude and we also looked what would it
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take $50, we believe and what would it mean, $50 for the next ten years, good news or bad news, for whom good, for whom bad. we think to be able to see $50 work ten years or beyond, we should be able to see that the picture i showed you is iraq, about $50, the u.s., canada, brazil, continue to increase its production, number one, not enough, number one. the second condition is we will see a stable middle east and production growth from the middle east, iraq and other countries increase the production. this is needed in order to see a $50 vert. a $50 vert will bring a lot of benefits to oil importers because they are going to pay
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less money and oil import will go down, will provide a relief from the trade balance, definitely good news the first sight, but another way of thinking is the implications on the oil security, today about half of the global oil exports go from middle east, a $50 vert, we would see that this 50% exports, global exports will jump from middle east will jump to 75%. because many high cost areas will lose ground because they will not be able to produce that much. we have not seen since 1970s that the oil exports such a high
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share, 75% of the meeting, this will have implications for the oil security, especially given the current term oil and some of the countries are in division. iraq, libya, syria, yemen and other countries therefore, low oil prices many, many years may not necessarily be all good news. this is one point. another one is that the -- the recent years, but also under efficiency, there were many policies push efficiency, i will mention more in a minute, nig efficiency policies may not be very strong if the oil prices are at a low because a strong drive for the governments or for the companies, for the industries to use energy more
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efficiently if the price of energy is rather low. so, to sum up the old cliche of the lower the prices, the better it is for the consumers may not halt automatically anymore. this is a message that you wanted to give. and the other message he wanted to give is that in a $50 vert, the revenues of the many key producers will be substantially reduced, number one. number two, lower prices mean the market much stronger than it otherwise might be, therefore, putting pressure on the energy markets and therefore, we believe the $50 vert is not a likely scenario for a very long time and it may not be a scenario which is desirable looking at the broader picture.
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today look at the markets, the demand and production is more or less similar to each other, but we are seeing the demand for growth grow substantially coming from china, india and again, southeast asian countries and the production growth will be very modest. so, between production and the demand there is a 400 bcm that many companies in the world, many countries in the world, an eye on. the u.s., australia, african countries, russia, get the market there. and this, of course, very
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important but there are two uncertainties here. there are many companies around in this room, answer it as well, on the demand side, one on the production side. in many countries, coal is much, much cheaper today. if you want to be a power plant in thailand, you want a qu coal-fired power plant and gas-fired power plant to produce electricity from coal is 50%, 5-0 percent cheaper than produce through gas. in the absence of any regulation, which is in the case
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in most of the asian countries, they go for coal. therefore there is a pressure on gas from coyle and the second pressure comes from renews. renews are becoming more and more competitive. on the other hand, they are supported through different mechanism by the governments. so, on the demand side, there is uncertainty how gas will get off being -- on one hand by coal, the other by renews. this on the demand side. on the production side, the growth you see here, the big chunk of the growth is coming from shale gas and the methane from china. it is much lower than the chinese government estimates, but even this may not happen or it may be even higher. so i think it is a big
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uncertainty, shale gas future of china and therefore, this 400 bcm may be changing as a result of the success or the failure of the shale gas coming here from china in the next years to come. talking about china, one area is coming to an end, chinese energy demand growth story. put the stop on all energy developments in the lastdemand put the stop on all energy developments in the last years to come. total energy. if you look at the last years, the energy demand growth and gdp, the economic growth, was more or less similar to each other. when you look at the future,
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however, we see while the economy continues to grow at a slower pace but going to grow, energy demand growth is -- this doesn't look anymore like -- okay. this doesn't look -- >> there you go >> okay. energy demand growth. energy demand growth much lower pace. i will explain what it is. first of all, we saw the first signs of decoupling 2014 and 2015. it is happening mainly for two reasons, one, chinese government is putting a lot of efforts and energy efficiency.
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that's number one. second and more important, many energy colleagues don't follow very closely, chinese economy is changing its stature moving from a heavy industrial-based economy to a service-based economy, slowly but surely. so, what you see is a divorce between the economic growth and energy demand growth in china. especially the case for coal. and i will come to that in a moment. so this is the first change in china. energy demand growth and economic growth is decoupling. the second change in china is the following. while the -- you look at the past years, you saw only true
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colors. coal and oil. and we are now seeing many new colors coming in the picture. especially coal is losing market shares significantly, 2014 and 2015, chinese coal slowed down and it is in decline. let's don't forget that china consumes half of the world's coal alone, but this is a decline. oil will continue to grow, but you will see gas, nuclear power and more and more renewables, solar being part of the dynamics. so, in china, we see two things happening. one, economic growth and energy demand growth is decoupling. [ coughing ] second, more energy mix is much more diverse compared to today.
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now, as i mentioned to you, every year, we focus on one country and this year, we work on india and our message is india is moving to the center stage of world energy affairs. in terms of coal, oil and solar, if you look at them, in terms of coal, number one, importer of coal is today in india, less than -- close to 250 million people, they have no electricity. and to generate electricity from coal is the cheapest option for india. so, it will be, in my view, very unfair to say the indian, don't
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do that while the 250 million people have no access to electricity. of course, they are doing it, but it has implications for everybody. this is one issue. second, oil. india will be the main driver, we believe, of the global oil demand, but if you look at even 2015 numbers, very strong growth coming from india and it is very obvious why. india is the car ownership is very low. in the united states, 750 people out of 1,000 people own a car. europe, 500 out of 1,000. in india, 20 out of 1,000 people own a car. with the increasing income levels, which we see very strong growth from india, they buy cars, as many other people did and it fuels the oil demand growth. second, india is pushing -- india is pushing the heavy
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manufacturing, but 90% of the new production coming from india, cement coming from india, it means trucks are imported and as a result of that india is plan playing a very important role in the oil market, in the next years to come. in the past, we always get the china numbers, the tables of the oil -- oil demand, but i think china, we need to look more and more india numbers as well. solar pv, the government pushed solar pv very strongly, about 20%, we believe, of all new global pv will come from india alone. so, therefore, india will be a new and emerging country in terms of the global energy
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markets for the next years to come. the most important markets here, we look at the power markets, we see that the oil production is declining, nuclear is increas g increasing, somewhat mainly from asia. china is the leader, followed by india, japan, starting the -- restarting the nuclear generation slowly but surely. gas is growing strongly, electricity is a base but also complement renewables and coal is losing significant market share. today about more than 40% of share of coal in the generation and number one fuel, there is some increase coming mainly from india and the southwest asian
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countries. the growth here is much lower so coal is losing market share and lose, the number one fuel because renewables are becoming the number one fuel in the electricity generation. when i say renewables here, two things important to note and they are different issues. one, in the past, the growth of renewables came mainly from hydro power. in the future, we expect the biggest growth will come from wind and solar power, the one change. second change, in the past, the bulk of growth from renewable came from the oecd countries, from the rich countries, but now, we are seeing the growth is coming mainly from the emerging countries of renews. let me give you one number.
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2014, renew investments in china were bigger than u.s. plus all european countries plus japan put together. only in china. so therefore, in the power system, we see a major change and following what i've told you before, the renewable is the is the fuel of choice and the next 20 years, out of every $$10, 6 go to renew investments highlighting the importance of renewables. energy efficiency. this is an issue as our colleagues know very well that we highlight all the time because it is changing the picture. everybody has to understand, to understand deet mapped growth, what is happening in energy
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efficiency. and i can tell that you in the year 2005, ten years ago, only about 15% of the global energy consumption was covered by the energy efficiency mandatory energy efficiency measures. only 15%. today, it is almost doubled, it is out of two major factors. many factors but two very important. one, chinese government takes this very, very seriously for many reasons. two, energy security. if you use energy less, your import dependency will be less. one reason, china. the second reason is in the last four or five years, had high energy prices, this was an
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important driver of the energy efficiency measures put in place. and i will look at the future, we expect that more and more energy more energy efficiency measures will be put in place. but i can tell you in a $50, i believe the energy efficiency penetration will be much lower. and i expect on the other side a good result from paris, strong signals from paris, may accelerate energy efficiency improvement. so to save time for our discussion, let me finish by the decision on climate change in paris. what we have seen is something unique when it comes to climate change. some of you may remember two other cities, kyoto and
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copenhagen. i believe paris will be much different than copenhagen and kyoto with all its consequences. first of all, we have never seen, ladies and gentlemen, that more than 150 countries came together and said climate change is a serious issue and he will reduce emissions by 2030. government gave commitments, pledges. of course some of those pledgs s are less ambitious than others and nobody can claim that those governments can fulfill their commitments as they are not mandatory pledges. but still, there is a strong
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intention there and there is a political momentum which is getting stronger and stronger. today more than 100 leaders are in paris which messed up the traffic in paris by the way. i heard from my colleagues nobody can take their cars. but still very important. and they hopefully come up with a suggestion respect , an agree which i will elevate in a moment. but just wanted to tell you what happens if those pledges are forfeited. as i said, some of them may be less ambitious. it will be first implication for the climate change. the scientific community told us
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that if you want to overt in the future, which is more are or less similar to existing one today, temperature increase should be maximum two degrees celsi celsius. and if this pledges are implemented, temperature increase will be 2.7 degrees celsius. and the difference is not something that you just take your jacket off and adapt. it will be tremendous implications for the rather fragile equilibrium of our planet. this is the first implication. second implication on the energy sector, as you know, about two-thirds of the emissions causing climate change come from
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the energy sector. so if you want to solve the climate problem, we have to solve the problem in the energy sector. what does it mean for the energy sector. and electric generation. it increased in the last years and continue to increase, but there will be such an amount of emissions coming there. and then we look at the future, and it will grow. and it's a good thing. the problem is we don't have a problem with the electricity generation growing. electricity means, energy means, better lives, economic growth, comforts. the problem is not with with energy, the problem is with the emissions. so that with the pledges this place, what happens is if electric generation grows,
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emissions remain stable you been like in the past, they don't grow. mainly it is out of two things. share of renewals is increasing, second share of coal is declining while the share of gas is increasing. you look at all these 150 pledges, the countries say i will do this and they also say i will do this by understanding this, what policies government choose to reach their targets, energy efficiency in addition to gas replacing coal are one of the common themes. so therefore pledges are that they can change the picture significantly. now before finishing the present
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takes, i wanted to tell you something about the energy agency if i may. some of you may know that i stopped my job as energy director some three months ago and we had a meeting with all the foreign ministers, minister from china, indonesia, thailand, brazil, many other countries, and we came up with withe new strategy and i wanted to share with you what does it mean. first of all, in addition to our members, we have now mexico starting to be a member, which is very good news for us, and chile, as well. we have agreement with china,
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indonesia and thailand to become our associate member countries. many areas are discussions with them. our first pillar, opening the doors of the iea to emerging countries and leaving the image of the rich man's energy club being truly an international organization and opening our doors to emerging countries. the second pillar is putting more emphasis on the organization of the oil organization. we want to put more emphasis on security working on that. and third, while we continue our position in the traditional fields and technologies, we would like to be putting more and more emphasis on the new
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technologies and aim to be the, if i may say so, bank of energy efficiency. so these are our three pillars and i wanted to take this opportunity to tell you and close the presentation here and finish our presentation, that the low oil prices, ten more years. we don't think it is likely. and on the other hand, not necessarily very good num of news for the consumers if you look at the big picture ranging from energy secretary to the sustainability issues. india growing very strongly.the energy secretary to the sustainability issues. india growing very strongly.big secretary to the sustainability issues. india growing very strongly. and the choices india will make will affect everybody. let me give you one number. india in the next 20 years, there will be more than 300 million people added to the
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indian population. and the buildings that they are going to leave they have not been built yet. so what kind of building costs they will have. the insulation standards. mandatory efficiency policies will be very important for all of us. china is going through a less growth trajectory now and also the choices that china is making is in line with more diverse, a different picture than we had in the past. we think the energy transition as i mentioned, more renewables,
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more efficiency, but whether or the not this will be a big move will defend on the results from paris. without getting a clear signal from paris, there will not be a major change in the flow of investments and as we all know energy sector have long lead times and therefore the signal, a clear signal from paris therefore will be of vital importance. finally, the ability to get the energy sector to challenge both in terms of oil and gas, when we look at the amount of challenges, both climate change and local pollution on energy is a vital one. therefore we are aiming fp

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