tv Tonight From Washington CSPAN May 6, 2010 8:00pm-11:00pm EDT
going on. this is interesting. a three-way marginal with the liberal democrats are in the middle. let me just take you to one more area, smp would have to be pushed offus, the s&p 500 would have to be pushed off the top slot. this is a very key one for the conservatives. they can see the scottish secretary of state. which of these is really looking possible or likely? >> i am not sure any of them are. the word is that the conserve -- conservatives have not. we don't know what is happening in angus. the word is that the liberal democrats and not the conservatives. what does it matter? there may be one or two at the end of the night. if there is a david cameron
minority government you will do it without any real help from scotland. in scottish politics, what will they make of it? look. we are run by a party that has the representation in scotland. it is not just interesting thing but the political consequences of that difference could be very significant. >> a real constitutional headache potentially. we will leave that one for you. >> thanks very much, emily. more scenes from whitney. david cameron going to his count. there is very little to see there. i am joined here by bbc's business editor. 1:00 in the bond markets, what
is this about? we never had an election where they suddenly start trading shares and bonds and goodness knows what right in the middle of the election night. >> as you know the biggest challenge for any new government is to persuade investors that the government has a credible plan to reduce the u.k.'s record deficit or record boroing. investors plainly think that the efficacy of any plan to do that will affect the price of sterling and government bonds. as soon as they have the first inkling of what type of government we will see, that is when they want to trade. that is why many banks and dealings rooms are pretty staffed up. >> it hasn't happened in other elections. >> yes, it has happened in
other elections. this is on a bigger scale because of what is at stake for the u.k. is greater. we have the exit poll at 10:00. sterling had been weakening against the dollar all day and that continued after the exit poll. what investors are saying at this stage is that they fear a hung parliament will make it harder to get a credible deficit plan through meaning challenges in terms of raising taxes or pushing through cuts. the painful decisions have been harder to take. >> we have a result in. this is a conservative gain. the first conservative gain of the night. let's hear the declaration. >> personally i would like to thank on behalf of everyone here all of the counting staff.
the police. and all of everyone who worked so hard on the day to make this election count run as smoothly as possible. tonight the people have voted for change and a fresh start. after 13 years of a labour government they voted for a new beginning under david cameron and the conservatives. tell mean that there is a change in government, a conservative government, the majority needed to bring about change that is needed in this country. >> chris skid moore takes kingswood. this is an important result. a conservative gain from labour. swing of 9.4%. this was above the levels that jeremy vine was talking about, the 116 they needed.
it was 135th on their target list. >> they would be delighted to get a seat like this. were it to be repeated across the country they would sweep to power. there are certain other places where the swing away from labour was rather smaller. we have seen big swings in the northeast, big swing in kingswood. but that result will have them cracking champagne. >> let's pull it up and look at it more closely. now you ask so sweetiely that i can't. looking at that change, conservatives nudging into first place. it tends toing it the way the government would go.
pretty tight race. look at that as a change in the share. a massive swing. really, this was on that sort of 6.9% swing we talked about them needing for majority and they way overshot that one. >> they got it with votes to spare. this is the swing in this sort of seat that means david cameron will be priority tomorrow night. however we are getting other news in. >> going to take you on to that one that you were mentioning. basildon south. everyone remembers it as being the moment when we started to think the story is not quite what we thought. >> tonight we are hearing from both the tory camp and labour
camp. it needs only a tiny swing. it does look as if the iconic seat of basildon has gone conservative. >> another very, very tight one. >> thanks, emily. we may be looking at an overall conservative majority, unlike what the exit poll said sometime back. it is looking feasible. >> we are watching this with fascination. i have three members of the house of lords here. you must be -- >> it is a great result. the swing that we needed was
just under 7%. >> is this the ashcroft money at work? >> that is -- >> it is a story that may be bearing fruit. >> if you look at the way candidates have been campaigning, in terms of the amount of door knocking they are doing and the amount of people they have come into contact with. >> you think about basildon and what you felt when you heard the news when it went. what are you feeling? >> it is written on my heart. it could be a bell whether. it will be interesting to see how big it was. the marge inlast night time wasn't that great. we are a fair way out from getting a conclusive result.
>> it looks bad for labour. >> it's not good. it's not good. >> what do you make of what is happening? >> your opinion poll is rubbish. it underestimated the conservatives. and by the way from the start of this evening, i didn't think we were in for a hung parliament. >> i know you will be fascinated to see the result. but i think you can carry on talking. >> if indeed there is a hung parliament, it is to write a narrative of victory based on labour's failure. >> in the acting returning officer do hereby give notice is as follows.
>> i hereby declare that adrian mark sanders is duelly elected >> so the turnout was over 60%. adrian sanders. here are the figures. there is his raw majority. let's look at the share of vote and the change of the vote there. conservatives 39%. the swing conservative is up 1.1% swing liberal democrats to conservative. >> let me illustrate how we are going to get different pictures in different parts of the country. on the one hand they do not get that. a very small swing away from them. on the other hand we saw
kingswood where they get a massive swing. one not on their list of targets that they do get. >> i assume a pattern will emerge in the end. people will look back in a month or two and we will see -- >> it is a series of two-party races. so on and so forth. >> emily and peter are the geniuses of this. >> geniuses on our own. >> it was working so well before. >> come back to us. we got it up. >> oh, all right. >> yes. >> this is the first indication that we have had, i think, of a slight setback to conservative hopes. previous results against labour have indicated an overall majority for the conservative. if they cannot win liberal
democrat seats in the southwest they have to win more seats from lobour. there is a slight possibility. >> let's go down to southwest london. >> take advice from the chief executive. >> i don't know whether she can hear us. martha. >> i, jane cooper, being the returning officer at the election do hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for each candidate is as follows. peter darby, national party 4a
9. justine greening, the conservative party candidate 21,223. stewart thomas king, the labour party candidate 11,170. bruce william david mckensy, green party, 591. james peter charles liberal democrat 6,907. frederick hugo u.k. independence party 435. i therefore declare that just een green suggest elected to
serve. >> conservative hold in putney. one of the many vice chairman of the conservative party. let's see the swing there. >> first of all, i would like to thank the returning officer. i know you -- >> majority goes up by 8,000. >> it was the greatest privilege of my life to be elected. >> we got another result. >> being the dep tee returning officer declare that the number of folks for each candidate at the election was as follows. steven agnew, 1,43. steven fye, 1,876.
place, well below her. her majority was 5,000 before and now is nearly 15,000. >> what can i say. i am just overwhelmed. >> so. jeremy vine, you have something for us. >> yes. you are going to have a look and see what happens when we compare the exit poll figures we got with the real results coming in. you see the seats and the colors. and labour seats in blue and red. the exit poll gave us this figure for national swing 5.5%, not enough for the conservative. is that the actual figure? we are getting in results. the seats in the northeast of england. i will identify them and highlight them.
there are 19 seats and 17 of them are absolute labour heartland area. the swing to the conservatives in the northeast is very different from the exit poll swing we have nationally. have a look at this. massive 8.4% to the conservatives. if that was spread to them to become the government with the overall majority and gives them two seats here. stockton south and you can see those two seats won for labour in 1997 in tony blair's landslide. will part of the story be some of labours massive gains of those 13 years ago. in the northeast ofeng land, again let's take a look if we can at what the exit poll told
us about their performance nationally. what happens when we look at the northeast seats and the swing there? it is much higher. liberal democrats taking chunks out of labour. so, fascinating story from the northeast. labour heartland, hugely strong area for the party. they have been more vulnerable to attack. david. >> thanks very much, jeremy. let's go down to the river again. >> my next guest here on the boat is allister campbell. how bad does it look for labour
at this time in the morning? >> it is interesting what they said about thinking of it in a way -- i still think that it is far, far too early to call. >> mr. brown hasn't won. >> no. we lost a lot of seats. kingswood was a bad result as well. but conservatives not long ago were -- >> if mr. cameron comes but without an overwhelming majority should they call a coalition with the lib dems? >> let's see what happens. what headline you advise? >> if labour and the liberals could do a deal. that is obviously an option. >> he never got elect as leader
of the labour party. he is now lost and you are saying he should stay in power. >> i am saying let's wait. >> supposing it is. >> it is significant that they are already putting out to the press association and the bbc and others that if possible mr. brown will seek to form a coalition. >> i think they are trying to counter about his narrative that they are trying to form the next government. the election is not over. nobody won the election yet. all of the party leaders will have to reflect on the results as they come in. >> we do know that labour have not won it. >> what i can say is not long ago that everyone thought they would be home and dry and they
have not had that good of a campaign. >> this must be a sad night for you. in a sense this is the end. end of 13 years of new labour. it's over. >> it is certainly not over for new labour. if we were to win this election tonight. >> but you are not. >> if we had won this election we would have been only the third party in two centuries to win four terms. if you remember back in 1992 lots of people said we would never win again. we won in 1997 with a landslide and again in 2005. labour has a lot to be proud of. i think it is interesting that one of the lessons of this election is that britain is a progress country. >> you are looking at pictures of gordon brown. shaking hands with various people. that is one seat i think we can
be sure that will stay labour tonight. >> certainly hope so. >> if mr. cameron does form a minority government or overall majority government gordon brown goes as labour leader. >> let's see what happens. i think gordon made it clear that he is a big guy. he will take responsibility. >> who would you like to see as the next labour leader? >> i am not answering that one. there is a long way to go tonight. >> i am going to interrupt you. we are going to go straight back to david in the studio. >> thanks very much, andrew. john simpson has been with gordon brown this evening. can you cast any light on this report that mr. brown said he
would try to form a coalition if there is a hung parliament according to party sources? >> certainly i have been talking to people very close to gordon brown. and that is certainly the gordon brown line. it is confused. even his own spokesman say they don't know anything about it. but as i understand it the line is that gordon brown remains prime minister. he will -- you can even see me. i am not sure. >> looks like you. sound it is like you. i think it is you. >> yes. now i am the one with the white hair. >> no, that is me. >> he says that he is the priority and constitutionally he gets the right to see if he can form a government.
that is why you are hearing all of these things. coming out to the liberal democrats. we are really interested in reform. we are on the same side really. we are the natural partners of the liberal democrats. that is what, as i understand it, gordon brown's line is. whether that trickled through to every member of his team, it does not seem to have. >> the line we are getting is that he had tried to form a coalition government, not that it is possible. >> if the press association say this and i have been talking to somebody that works closely with gordon brown, he is blindingly obvious. over labour spokesman has flattened the liberal democrats, called for elect toral reforms and said they have not won.
they are saying to us, we want to do a deal. we don't know well if they will allow them to have the chance to do that. >> we will have his result when it comes through. meantime we have a result from wales i would like to see. this was just outside the range the torys were hope to take. he has been there since 1997. the swing 3.6% to the conservatives. again, a swing this time from -- over to labour.
there we are. three welsh results in. nick. >> it suggests that you are getting a slightly lower swing to the conservatives in wales. remember the tory party sets a target of 10 welsh gains they want in order to get a majority. it reenforces the idea that you are getting different swings in different regions. >> meaning the conservative government will be very much an english government. the conservatives will be the third or fourth party in scotland. how will that play when you have an smp leader of a government in scotland that says scotland has a let out from the conservative government by voting for independents. the strains are likely to
increase considerably as a result of this election. you see how few so far have come in. jeremy. >> david, thank you very much. we are joined by david. are you comfortable with the idea of gordon brown hanging on as a result of a deal? >> well, firstly only the prime minister can conseed defeat or decide that he would like to try to reach a deal with others. secondly, that is entirely dependant on whether or not they get an overall majority. in my own view with the swings we are seeing is it is quite likely the conservatives will make it or be so close to it
that the decision will be taken. back in 1992 i remember my colleagues going until 5:00 in the morning spouting the line that was put to them on their pages. i think in two hours we will know pretty well whether or not the conservatives have made it or not and people might be able to talk sensible. >> your instinct is that labour has lost this election. >> my instinct is that we have lost the election but that we should go for uniting the anti-conservative force fist we are in opposition in a way that minimizes the damage that they can do to our economy and social policy and the well-being of the people who voted for us in the election
yesterday. and above all to stop what happened in the 1980's in my city, the destruction of the fab rick of the community and the well-being of people in earlies of their employment. that should be a primary task that will be speaking the language of people that we represent. >> don't listen to a wor horse sitting on the back seat and one of them is me. let me give you -- if you put me against the wall. >> people want the results. >> david. >> liberal democrats -- liberal
democrats in second place. >> ok. this has been held by labour since 1935. the most marginal seat for labour against the liberal democrats, and i wish they got on with announcing it. >> if they do win the seat liberal democrats will be quite disappointed. it was a target they wanted. their argument had been if they had trouble against the conservatives in the south of england they could do well against labour in the north of
england. it will be confirmation of the picture coming out of our exit poll that this is not as good of a night they were hoping for. >> i can't imagine what they are waiting for. here she comes. >> i, being the acting return officer for the election held on the 6th of may, 2010. do hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for each candidate is as follows. the labour party candidate 20,496. marshall nigel revel, u.k. independence party, 8a 6. collins, johnathan charles, independent, 172.
>> the election -- >> we will come back to durham. after we have had this result. >> i, the returning officer give notice that the total number of votes cast was as follows. peter adams, u.k. independence party, 760. susan archibald, independent, 186. gordon brown, scottish labour party, 29,559. douglas chap man, scottish national party, 6,550.
derrick jackson, land is power, 57. mclaren, independent, 165. john maineland, scottish liberal democrat, lindsey patterson, scottish conservative and unionist, 4,258. i declare gordon brown elected to serve in parliament as a member for the kirkcaldy. >> i hope we will be able to hear from gordon brown. yes. he has notes for a speech coming out. his majority goes up by nearly 5,000 votes. >> i thank my fellow candidates
for the dignified manner in which they fought this campaign and can i thank this great challenge which is now a central focus of our whole community life. i want to thank the staff for what they have done. let me thank the returning officer and the staff who administered this count with such speed and courtesy and care, insuring that everyone who has met the rules has had the chance to vote as i hope and believe it is the right of citizens everywhere throughout our country. let me say to the people of this great place there is no greater privilege to snerve parliament the people you have grownup with, men and women whose children have grownup here. a few yards from here is the home i grew up in which i was young. immediately across is the church that my father preached and where i began to learn
about social justice. and decades ago i learned here something that has never left me. i learned what true friendship is. so, many of us who meet first at school have been friends for life. many are here tonight and i think you for your support for me, for me personally and your support for our cause. i am proud of much the government has achieved, tax credit, more police officers, children out of poverty, more jobs than in 1997. i am proudest of all to return as a member of parliament seven elections in a row by the people who know me best, who i am, who i stand for and what i went into politicals to achieve. i enter parliament to fight for jobs. i enter parliament to improve
schools and the opportunities of young people to go to college and university and det get a degree. i entered parliament to fight against discrimination and dignity and to deliver it for older people. that is what i have been and i continue to do. i entered parliament to support our wonderful armed forces and insure this country fulfills their obligations to the poorest countries of the world. that is what i am doing. i entered parliament to save and renew our nhs and that is what we have done. at this moment i want to speak directly to the people to thank so much of you, my agent, members of the scottish parliament. i want to thank all of our counselors and party members. i want to thank my wife, sarah, for her love and support and
her legendary campaigning skills, too. above all i want to thank the people for returning me once more as your member of parliament. the outcome of this country's vote is not yet known. my duty to the country coming out of this election is to play my part in britain having a strong, stable and principled government, able to lead britain into recovery and implement our commitments to far-reaching reform upon which there is a growing consensus in our country. thanks to your support i enter member of parliament and thanks to your votes with more support than ever before in the time that i have been a candidate. i am deeply honored. thank the people of all of the surrounding communities.
i will not let you down. thank you very much. >> gordon brown speaking. thanking the people that knew him best and saying the outcome of the election is not yet known. i got the feeling he was pretty well wrapping up his career as leader of the labour party. >> i thought more personal his eyes and the eyes of his wife sarah spoke of defeat and disappointment and not of a man believing he will still be prime minister priority -- he said it is my duty to play my part in creating a strong and stable government, you logging that if there is a hung parliament or perhaps stepping
aside to allow someone toles form a coalition government. >> an drew is with the david cameron camp. did you hear what the prime minister said? what do you make television? a pretty clear hint there and we have had much more than hints all evening, is that if they possibly can, they would like to do some deal with the liberal democrats. that would arouse a sense of outrage in the conservative
camp. people around david cameron who feel they are on course to clearly win this election. and it would be in an incredibly different position. if we had two different leaders both trying to form governments. we are not there yet. but we are in a position that the conservative camp, david cameron's people are watching this result by result, and even at this stage in the morning are not able to call this and tell what is happening. david cameron, it is quite clear that it will go on for quite a long time yet. if david cameron was able to come out it would be that he
was winning this election. he deserves to be prime minister. yet this stage he says that is going to happen. >> do you think gordon brown has a right as indeed ted heath did in february 1974 to try to stay in office if he can by putting together an agreement or coalition or mechanism with the liberal democrats? >> the constitutional position is that he remains prime minister until it is clear that he cannot command the majority of the house of commons. if he lifts up the phone at some point in the course of the morning and they do some type of deal and he feels that libs and lab together can form a majority, he has the right to carry on.
the problem is that the country seems to have rejected gordon brown as priority. then there will be a sense of natural right vs. constitutional right. the difference is that ted heath had more popular votes. he actually had 250,000 or so more people voting for him. it does not look like on these papers, labour could claim that. >> go on. >> another interesting parallel is that ted heath was asked by the then liberal leader whether or not he could deliver voting reform. he said the most i can offer is a vote at the house of commons. that was not enough for the liberals then.
>> we think we are about to get a declaration from tooting. let's go up there on the platform and see. >> again, i seem to be missing a candidate. >> can we put that on the screen? thank you very much. conservative gain in battersea. 6.5% swing to the conservatives. >> 7,509. mark adrian clark, the conservative party candidate,
liberal democrats, way down. down 5%. >> these different swings we are getting. nothing like enough for them to become a majority government. we see some swings up to 9%. this was just outside the range of the seats that they need in order to get a majority. as we have seen in certain areas, southwest democrats have done better and need to get seats like this. >> maybe spot the difference. >> i forget the figure. about 6% from memory. it was significantly higher. >> let's go to south london with emily. >> it sounded by the number of votes as if the conservative candidate has taken it. he hasn't. he has kept his position.
let me show you what that does. labour up just a fraction. nick was saying just not enough. very interesting, we have the same reaction. the turnout must have been huge. >> i think it up about 10%. turnout is up almost everywhere. kingswood had a huge swing. the others, 6%, 3.5% here. maybe because there is a bigger minority vote. at the moment the variety of swings, it will be hours before we really know whether the to rys are the largest party or close to a majority. >> ok. the other one we will be looking at, a similar swing
needed, around 6%. will they manage that one or will it be the same result as in tooting? >> while emily was having there the guildford result, number one in the liberal democrats target. a very tight thing between conservatives and liberal democrats. the conservatives held on there. here is the change. conservative voting goes up 9%. lib ral democrats down 4%. labour down 5%. >> just the beginning of this exit poll that looked so odd about the liberal democrats may not be so wrong. we are seeing these drops in seats where we have increased turn outs. is it because people thought it was a two-way bat and he will came out in large numbers in
that direction? >> pictures of gordon brown and his wife leaving after the result that we heard in kirk caldy there. >> one would have thought labour voters would have swung heavily to the liberal democrats to gain that seat from the conservatives. it is a very disappointing result for them. >> ed, david was saying that he thought the conservatives would end the night with an overall majority. what does it feel like to you? >> i have no idea, really, to be completely honest. the people have spoken but we don't know what they have said. it will be much later in the morning before we know. i think that if your exit poll is right, two things come
forward in my view. first of all, we need a stable government. we will have to see who can form a stable government. of course gordon brown is clear gets to have the first crack at that. secondly, people have voted in the majority for reform of our voting system. this is the first time in 100 years that has happened. ourselves and the liberal democrats are clearly committed to that. that can't be swept under the carpet. let's see what the exit poll turns out to be true. we have a huge variation across the country. >> it is hugely complicated as you say. your judgment is that it is ok for gordon brown to soldier on even though he has no overall majority. >> we have a very simple system in this country. if one party gets the majority the leader becomes the prime
minister. if no party does, it is up to the parties to form a majority between them. that is simple. it is completely irrelvant. >> you are with your brother, brown or bust, are you? >> i wouldn't quite put it that way. i will make one point to you, jeremy, which i think nobody has made. i think one of the reasons you are seeing a lower swing, as far as i can tell, than in some of the safer seats is that we have foot soldiers on the ground who are getting out to vote. i want to pay tribute to them tonight. basically the foot soldiers have beaten the ashcroft money.
>> we have a current swing of 3.3% but it is altered by the results we had from scotland i am told. we don't know who has won it. we shall see. let's have a summary of where we are at the moment. you can make good sense of this chaos. >> 57 seats so far. we have 593 to go. so far tonight the big story is extraordinary scenes at polling stations where hundreds of people have been unable to vote. they will conduct a view after angry voters have been shutout.
some areas voters refused to move on. >> nobody bothered to get more stuff in and to get more organized. >> frustration and anger. staff couldn't cope. it cost hundreds of people their vote. >> this could make all of the difference between somebody losing or winning. >> voters here waited and waited, many were turned away. >> we take it very seriously. it is undemocratic. everyone is very angry. >> the returning officer blamed a large number of students turning up without their polling card. extra staff were sent but it is too late. >> it should not have happened. we cannot turn the clock back. >> pictures emerging of polling stations being caught by a high
voter turn out. voters were locked out in west london and here. the ex lecer toal commission said it is cause for concern. >> it may well be that the law would need to change. >> there are suggestions of a legal challenge to results where voters were turned away. >> we had the first big upset of the evening. the democratic unionist party leader peter robinson lost his seat. he has held the seat since 1979 and was ousted by a candidate from the alliance party. it follows the political scandal that surrounded mr. robinson and his wife earlier in the year. hundreds of seats to go. but the exit poll says we may be headed for the first hung parliament. it should get clearer as more results come in.
but this is the current state of the parties. labour with 30 seats so far. conservative with 14. lib dem with four. how the city reacts will be crucial to britain's economic recovery. bond markets opened up to allow traders to respond quickly as they get the results. some analysts suggest that they are betting on a conservative majority. as well as following us live, you can follow live updates right through to the final result online at bbc.com/election. tonight, unprecedented scenes at polling stations as some people were turned away without being allowed to vote and the election commission says that there will be a review.
>> labour gained back from people's voice. there was a great rally by election in 2006 because labour tried to impose. let's go on to newbury. conservative hold in newbury. liberal democrats in second place. and the liberal democrat vote falls as much as the conservative vote rises. the majority was 12,004 and now it is up. the conservative hold there. gedling.
schools minister. down 6%. conservative flat lined. that is a phony increase. that is just what they got. >> that result will cheer up the labour party. we remind you there are 116 seats they need to get a majority. that was the 92nd. they failed pretty miserabley in their efforts to get that. >> are you taking a bet on the hung parliament? >> i am not taking a bet on anything at the moment. >> it is hard to say. it seems there is no patent that would give confidence. there are 10 tory targets. that was an important one for them and they have not got it. the interesting thing is when you go to wales and scotland,
they are performing much, much worse. they really did have hopes in wales. the evidence says that is not enough. >> swing in england so far is 6.7%. it is way down to 3%. >> across the u.k., they haven't got it. >> let's go boating with andrew. >> the wheels lit. party is in full swing. i am joined by chris and sally. if this is mr. cameron's night, what job would you take? >> i wouldn't work for the government. i would rather fly to the moon. we have enough people working for the government. >> you would turn down david cameron? >> there are enough people working for the government at the moment. >> you are happy to see him
maybe we should start predicting our own rich success. >> what do you think? >> i do not think the other candidates can escape hard times. they were just going, thank goodness. >> are you so sure it is a conservative victory? downing street says they may form a coalition. >> i think by 1:00 p.m. tomorrow. >> generally the elections are always great times for cartoonists, and we have some of the greatest cartoonists in the world, and we have got one with us tonight. let's see what he has got. what have you got for us? >> this is gordon brown. he has an albatross around his
neck, which is everything from the economy, and then i had a go of nick leg. -- nick clegg, walking on water, and then you have to know things like that can happen. >> maybe not as bad as >> and then mrs. cameron is expecting. so is mr. cameron. >> these look fantastic. thank you very much. we hope to see you later. let's go back to the studio. >> the secretary of state for culture and media talk to his constituency. >> 792.
john, liberal democrat, 10,581. [applause] i do hereby declare that benjamin peter james bradshaw has the most. >> he is from exeter. he is a gay mp's who in his first battle said he was gay, and he had a conservative opponents to try to defeat him on those grounds. he is there. swings from labor to conservative, 6%.
turnout is up by over 3%, like everywhere else. we were going to get the results from west 5. -- fyfe. the majority has been cut. this is one liberal democrats took in 2005, and it was taken back to night for labour. we know the tories are in difficulty in scotland. jeremy has a more elegant way of putting it. jeremy? >> let's have a look at the math as it was in the last general election. if isolates' scotland, and it looks from air -- it isolates
scotland, and it looks from the air like a huge stronghold around edinburg. red is dominant in scotland. you can see campbell reelected there and gordon brown there, but it is worth taking a look and the general picture in scotland. i could show them to you. 41 seats for labor, and 11 seats for the liberal democrats, six scottish nationals, and one conservative. the last general election, 40% for labor common liberal democrats 23%. -- for labor, liberal democrats, 23%. labour is hugely dominant. since the election of 2005, you
have the 2007 election, and effectively becoming a minority government in scotland, but it is just a reminder of the battlelabour's of -- battle labour's opponents need here. swing to conservatives was really happening in england, but outside was a very different story. we will highlight the scottish physician, and let's have a look at the swing in scotland. remember, the national exit poll was 5.5%. what does that mean for scotland? that is the swing to labour. it takes them close to the conservative's only seat in scotland. >> we have had one result in from glasgow east. it was taken by in 2008.
independent party, 209 votes. scottish liberal democrats, 1617 votes. i declare that margaret is elected to serve in the united kingdom parliament for the gusto east constituency. -- the glasgow east constituency. >> alive the reception for every candidate. it is interesting. this is the seed when john mason won, it rocked gordon brown's leadership, because it was so extraordinary they would take a seat from labour. they would take it back. we can see the change from 2005. s&p of 1%.
liberal democrats down seven. those of the raw figures. >> gusto east was the body election that followed the great drought that cause -- glass co eased was the election that followed the great -- glasgow east was the election that followed the great orwrow. what is interesting is looking those figures. you're seeing the liberal democrats in support. the government is the incumbents in scotland, and they are making difficult decisions, which is easy to campaign against. >> labor is holding up well in scotland, and conservatives are not making greater advantage in wales either. that might not matter too much for their chances of forming a government. there are not too many seats in scotland. what they will be more worried
about is the no. midlands, which required a 4.9% swing to gain, and conservatives failed to do that. they will be much more worried about what they failed to win. >> thank you very much. >> thank you very much, david. we have two further members from the house of lords. you are not doing very well. >> i think we are. we have not had a lot of announcements yeah. they have apparently gained a 5.5% swing. we had a 7% swingeing from the liberal democrats. if you look at the pattern is emerging over the evening -- >> you have not won gelding. these are all targets seats. >> look at the numbers.
if you look get the numbers right on the target list, we are facing them, but if you look at the general swing, that is important. there is a swing from the liberal party and to the liberal democrats. -- from the labor party to the liberal democrats. >> to get a majority, you need to take those, and you have not. there are lots of seats still to be called, but you understand what is going on tonight? >> it is very difficult to see an overall picture, because it does not feel like the results are backing of the exit poll, and the tories seem to not be doing as well as the exit polls suggested. it does appear to be going to an overall majority. the numbers will look rather different from what we were thinking it would look like in the evening. >> what you think is going on? >> two-thirds of the seats are safe. a third of the seats that are not save, we will see quite different things in different
places. not long ago, the conservatives would gain parties, and they are not doing that. the night is yet young. last time you said we would get 61. we get 62. >> you fail. >> of course the conservatives expected it, but we did not get the majority. >> a couple weeks ago it was almost said nick clegg could walk on water. we are not seeing the results in the constituencies. >> research to be local to%. we did not know where we will finish it. -- we started at the low 10%. we do not know where we will finish it. higher than that. >> there is going to have to be a change in the system after this, isn't there? >> the public is giving the
political parties a message, and they are doing it through the existing system. i think we need to see the results before we determine what changes are needed. it is pretty clear. the tories are -- >> you must be thrilled that gordon brown is going to be in downing street for as long as he can hang on. >> if the tories miss by significant amounts, water the public saying democrats and conservative game from labor. -- what are the public saying? >> the conservative game on labor. labor goes into second place. conservative gains near nottingham.
a swing of 5.5%. we have got news of a recount, and i hope i can find out what is going on there. john? >> the situation is a recount is being called, and i think it is an indication of how close it is. this is just off a motorway. we have heard so much about motorways, and there've 212 labor marginal effect could be affected by tonight's results. we're getting a very mixed picture. labor sources are saying they may have already lost, and they are also talking about-field.
-- ash field. there is a strong challenge from liberal democrats for reagan -- democrats. it looks like we may have resulted about 15 or 20 minutes. >> i think what is starting to emerge is what we might find is some elegance of -- some elements of voting we found out about korean normally liberal democrats would get 16% of pop it -- found out about. normally liberal democrats would get 16 percent of the popular vote syrian we will get -- popular votes. we will get the results as soon as they come. >> we are looking for patterns, and it is difficult to say
anything consistently emerging. what is happening is they are pushing way these attempts by the liberal democrats in marginal seats in the south. let's show you the kind of swing. it is the one they really like to be replicated. the same for the pattern in guilford. let me assure you that again. -- let me show you that again. >> this matter is not just for liberal democrats. it depended on liberal democrats
taking a number of tory seats. >> if you're looking at this, we have not have them in yet. it looks like the effect we have heard so much about is not relate translating into seats. >> another swing to the tories against the liberal democrats. nick clegg will be unhappy with it. >> it is very difficult to find any kind of pattern on a night like tonight, but we will be looking to see if we did three of -- three and a row. >> it is a very mysterious the election. no clue what is going to happen. it now looks hong. >> we have seen number 43. there are a few signs with
tories struggling to get seats they ought to get, but the extraordinary story of nick clegg who had a huge approval rating, talking about a massive increase in support, and he is struggling at the moment, but in thin maybe is a reminder that just because someone does well in -- but it may be a reminder that just because someone does well in a debate that does not mean they will get the votes. >> the difficulty under the voting system is votes can seemingly be spread across the country now, not giving you gains in seats but an increase in vote share. >> this is the second target for the tories in wales. >> labor party candidate,
>> i am not sure what is happening. it is explaining what exactly happened. when we have the results, we will share them as soon as weekend. -- as we can. conservative gains. we will come back to the. >> i am the acting returning officer. i do hereby give the number of votes required by each candidate as follows.
13% to the conservatives. the other one was also conservative gain from labor. the welsh assembly member again. there is a change, of four, down eight. we're seeing surprises. >> extraordinary. not a huge swing required, but they should get it. he came from nowhere, and in times has clearly ahead. they have been warning about an asteroid hitting the earth for some time. he was rather a colorful mtp. >> they have a number of
different meanings. >> sharon joins us in cardiff. what do you think about what has happened there? >> it is very interesting, because the earlier results include conservatives who did not quite get what they needed. >> what about him? >>: david is very well known on the ground there. he has been very high profile and has worked very hard. i wonder what the people actually thought about the profile and the press . -- in the press. this is very tight between labor and conservative here.
it has been a labour seat for a long time. only once has it been held by conservatives since the second world war. we are waiting to hear. we are not sure when it is coming. the other picture we are getting from wales is that it is expected they are going to be disappointed this evening. they failed to take one of their top targets seats. they did manage to bring the labor vote down by about 5%. >> i am going to stop your. we have results being declared. >> steven james, the conservative party candidate,
none of the above, 125. i do hereby claim stephen james is elected, and the total turnout is 62.2%. >> stephen metcalf has taken this seat from labour. it is a new seat. it amounts to a tory victory. the swing is something like 5% for conservatives. >> it is not the same seat, but it symbolically was huge, and that will be a pleasing figure. if you go north, the results we are getting in, the tories have failed to get the northeast. symbolically important to win,
115th on their target list, and my understanding is they are not taking that see. >> my understanding is 4004 david crosby. he has only dropped 400. >> my guess would begin the tory high command would have expected to get it easy. can we have a look dead whales? it is turning a very interesting. -- can we take a look at wales? >> we are trying to make sense of the shade of these results. i will put the monitor up and actually compare what is happening in england with what is happening in wales. we will see what the swing is in england that we have seen so
far, and we can see 5.7% of conservatives. the initial thought was that england was outstripping what happens to the conservatives in scotland and wales by miles. it may be in scotland, but we will bring the well see it up, -- welsh seat up. as we have heard, conservatives are doing good business in wales to night. as far as regionalizing, a hodgepodge element of these results, wales is not that far behind england in terms of conservative swing against labour. >> i want to take one thing up with you. we have had 112 seats in. the liberal democrats have no change in their share of the votes in the election of 2005 .
what was that all about? everywhere we went with people watching the debates, it was all about nick clegg, and at the moment, that may change a bit, but they are exactly the same. where have all these people gone? >> it is certainly true that nick clegg himself was nervous and that when voters were told by labour and tory that it was a truce between those two, that would squeeze -- a choice between those two, that would squeeze out people. >> if this is so, it is a sign you cannot break through the two-party system. >> it is extraordinary difficult, despite the high- profile he has seen. what we're seeing is higher turnout in the marginal seats. it seems to me some labor
deferrable -- labour people are coming out to get those seats. >> the current status is down 11 for labour >> they used to have 62 seats. the key to this election was to be seen as a breakthrough. the reason it is so massive is if gordon brown is hoping to say tonight that although he has lost, although labor has lost, there is a mandate for an anti- tory progressive. >> i will come back to you. we have some interesting people. andrew? >> we have the first editions
of the newspapers. they all went to press before they had any idea with the results were going to be, so i think we can ignore them, except for one. "the financial times" which is not on the election. we are now in sovereign debt crisis. the editor is with me. what do the markets make of a hung parliament? >> i think they can live with it. so far the more limited opens early. -- the market opens early. there has been a reasonable reaction, so the idea of a possible conservative majority. >> they have no idea what is going to happen, do they? >> they did not, but they also think this idea that this guy is going to fall in if there is a hung parliament -- the sky it is going to fall in if there is a huge parliament, this is manageable. >> what do the markets make of a
hung parliament possibilities to cut the deficit? >> it is interesting that when the probability has risen sharply in the markets have been very stable. funny things are happening. this is a sideshow in what is happening in the international bond market, but clearly there is a crisis going on. clearly sovereign debts are on everyone's mind, and that will give extra incentive to get a grip on public financing. i think we will give them extra to get going. >> we have an uncertain results, which seems to be the way we are heading at the moment. where does that mean for business? make you more nervous? >> we have been eager for elections to come around and give the liberal party a strong enough mandate. i think if there is any delay,
that will concern business. >> until we see the shape of things, we do not know what it will be like. it looks like we will have a minority conservative party. both bring? -- questions about how you are going to cut the deficit. >> none of the parties have set out in clear detail how they propose to cut the deficit. having said that, i think there is a willingness to do so. what we need is a credible plan over the next year on how to reduce this. it is 163 billion pounds. producing that as of two serious money. -- pretty soon that as of two serious money. all that is going to be part of the package. >> there has to be a concern that this sovereign debt crisis sweeping across europe cannot
leave britain on test. >> we are not greece for a number of reasons. we are not members of europe, for which we have to thank mr. brown. >> now you change your mind, too. >> we have long maturity for our debt. we have a pretty good national balance sheet. we are not greece. >> thank you very much. let's go back to the studio. >> david cameron is there, and it looks like he is just checking through his votes. we have got 25.5000. -- 25,500. he could claim victory or give an indication of what has happened tonight and what his position is, but quite often
leaders of parties do not use this opportunity to do that. they speak in more general terms. he looks like he is studying something quite carefully. >> he would be very cautious about claiming victory. there're too many poor results. i have no doubt he will claim that no labour has been rejected. whatever the results are, they will claim it is clear that labour has lost. >> we will certainly hear david cameron's speech when he wins in a bit. in the meantime, it is half past 2:00. let's go to fiona. >> there are hundreds to go, and no clear picture is yet emerging. extraordinary scenes of polling stations around the u.k., where
hundreds of people were unable to vote. a bunch of angry voters complain about being shut out from polling stations, which could not cope. >> we should have been more prepared. people mist of their votes. -- missed votes. >> frustration and anger. the staff could not cope. it cost hundreds of people their votes. >> this could make the difference between someone losing or winning. >> voters in nick clegg's constituency waited and waited. many were turned away. >> it is terribly undemocratic. >> the returning officer blamed a large number of students turning up without their polling card. extra staff were sent, but it was too late. >> it should not have happened.
we cannot turn the clock back. we have no remedy open to us. >> the picture is emerging of polling stations being called out by higher voting turnout. voters were locked out in ealing in west london and here in leaves. the electro commission says it calls for a serious -- the electronic commission says it calls for a serious concern. -- electoral commission says it calls for a serious concern. >> we had the first big political of such earlier this evening. the democratic unionist party robinson lost his seat in belfast. he has held the seat since 1979, was ousted by a candidate from the alliance party. the result was the -- the result of the political scandal that surrounded mr. robinson and his wife earlier this year. no clear picture is emerging.
the exit polls suggesting we may be heading for the first hong party -- hung parliament since 1974. this is the current state of the party. labour is 60 seats so far. liberal democrats with just six, and other parties with 18. election results will be crucial to economic recovery. in an unprecedented move, the bond market opened at 1:00 this morning. the price of government bonds has risen sharply. the pound is of against the dollar, and some are suggesting a conservative majority. you can check every detail and follow updates from the constituency right through to the final results online.
at 2:40 in the morning, some extraordinary scenes of polling stations as people were turned away. the electoral commission says there will be a thorough review, and no clear picture yet. >> she denied people are trying to make her change names. it was no. 11 on the tory's target list, but it was held by david heath. that is the result. we will leave it at that. have a look at high peak. conservative gains and the swing of 6.5% from labour. andrew bellingham -- bingham,
the near mp. -- new mp. and he is the second figure from the right. he ran against the liberal democrats. he has a majority of 534. 12 target for the tories. >> being the returning officer of the easily constituency for the parliamentary election on thursday, the sixth of may, 2010, give notice that the number of votes recorded for each candidate is as follows -- dominic, the labor party candidate, 5153.
attorney stephen, the english democrat, but in england first, 249 -- tony stephen, the english democrat, putting england first, 249. stone, 154. there were 75, and the turnout was -- >> chris looked like someone in defeat biting his lip, almost frightening fact years, with no reason at all. he won easily, and his majority went up. a swing to the liberal democrats from the conservatives of 3%, so that was good news for the liberals, the liberal democrats. they took eastlieighleigh, and
apparently they have gotten eastbourne. a majority of 3.5000 in eastbourne. liberal democrats down 2%. conservatives down 2% to labo ur. two bits of good news for liberal democrats. >> we're just hearing they have lost hero dave -- harrowgate. i suspect that look on his face is because of the national picture, not his own. use of the contrast between the graphic and the miserable picture on his -- you saw the contrast between the graphic and the miserable picture on his face. many believed this was the day they would break the mold of british politics, and it does not look that way.
>> it is 156 on the conservative target. that is a 9% swing from the liberal democrats to the conservatives. the seat taken by andrew jones, and that may tell a different story. still willis standing down, and they lose the seat. chris huhne still fighting, and he keeps on to his seat. it may be this we are seeing an incumbency. liberal democrats work hard, but when the candidate goes, it is hard. >> jeremy? >> indeed, thank you. it does not seem to me david cameron is doing better than the conservatives from when you were the leader. >> it has to be said an enormous
number of variations going on around the country. we are just celebrating hear the conservatives gained at harrowgate, so there's a lot to come this evening, but what is clear is the conservatives are getting more votes and more seats than any other party, and we're very pleased about that. >> what do you think the conservative approach ought to be? should there be an attempt to hang onto power? >> that could only happen if there is a hung parliament, and we do not even know the facts of that for the dimensions of that, but it could also happen of the liberal democrats should go back on how they said they would approach it, which is the party that got the most votes and the
most seats, and that looks likely to be the conservative situation, that the party should be the one that gets the chance to try to form a government. i think in those circumstances, for gordon brown, who was ever elected in the first place, to try after being emphatically rejected by the countries in this election, to hang on with a new tax for the liberals, i think that would be a shameless feet of politics. >> a thing he is able to join us now from where he has lost his seat in montgomeryshire. were you being punished? >> that is the superficially patronizing assumption. he beat me fair and square. >> you lost one of this is as liberal democratic seats in britain.
how do you want to put it? last time we did it it was when labor collapsed. i cannot give you an informed analysis this soon after the announcement. i did not expect the results, nor did my team. we will give you a detailed and informed analysis once we have a time to look at it ourselves. it is a sad time for me. in politics you have to be ready for the possibility of defeat, and that is what happened today. >> what do you think your party should do? should there be an approach to keep gordon brown at number 10? >> you do not get me in such a weak condition to start answering questions way above my pay grade. it is all about programs for governments. nick leg is not there to chop of other parties. he is there to get the -- nick leg is not there to chop up other parties. he is there to get -- nick
clegg is not there to talk of other parties. he is there to get the liberal democratic agenda. >> there is a recount in birmingham, which is one that the tories were hoping they would take. it was no. 39 on their target list. i am told stewart has been high fiving her supporters. it is significant there has been a recount in this seat in the west midlands. that is an important area for tory gains, and they were hoping to take that one. >> there will be hugely disappointed. >> the popular, hard-working mp is critical of government. maybe she has gained for not being -- not feeling defeated. >> i gather he has been speaking
somewhat david cameron's close aides and has some news for us about david cameron's results if indeed they do not have an overall majority. >> i think what we're going to hear from the conservative leader when he made his speech in another 10 minutes or so is again tuesday gordon brown lost the election -- is not to say gordon brown lost the election. it will be very difficult to make a speech for the conservative leader. the view is still very strong that the conservatives are easily the biggest party in terms of votes, so they have a moral and natural right, but david cameron will not dispute the constitutional rights of gordon brown to try to see if he can form of parliamentary
majority if that is what happens. we will also be hearing strong words from democratic of rage as a lot of people see it that across the u.k. people have been unable to cast their ballots. that is something david cameron will say, whatever the shape of the new government is, that government has to get in quickly and ensure this never happens again. >> house fascinating. he is in effect saying the future of government is really in gordon brown's hands and will set back while gordon brown makes overtures, or you will try to get them to come his way? >> he cannot stop gordon brown lifting the phone to nick clegg over the next few hours a fat is what happens, but this would be if politically outrageous. lots of things happen that would be politically of rages.
i think he will assert all the way through that he has a moral and natural right to try to form a government, but we live with the system we live in, and conservatives are not suggesting the support should be greatly changed. a mixture of anger and resignation. >> he is reported as saying he disputed the right to try and carry on some weeks ago, but he was very keen to point out he was not arguing with the guidelines. what he was saying is he did not think gordon brown should try to take it from him. >> let's see what is happening in birmingham. there has been a recount, and we were told stewart was high fiving her supporters. what do you think?
>> there is a real surge of excitement in labour. we saw several party workers running down the gang way, and you can probably see ballot papers being counted on the table. this does not look like a full recount. we know part of the delay -- this is one of supposedly the first declarer's. we know there was some kind of issue about verification. >> she was shrugging her shoulders. >> i think we have possibly a very close and surprising result on this night where every time you tried to generalize common the exception is more than the rule -- to generalize, the exception is more than the rule. >> it is very strange. when you watch david cameron, we
a large number of candidates cashing in. you can easily identify the candidates who may think they are not going to win tonight. >> i think david cameron will be thinking, how if i win do i do what the conservatives have been briefing, to produce a stable government? how can it be done? >> he must know if he does win the election -- >> liberal democrats, 11213. alan alexander, independent, 53. colin, wessex regionalist, 62. cameron, david, conservative party candidate, 33973.
there was a grand total of 17 rejected votes, and i hereby declare that david william donald cameron is duly elected for the whitney constituency. >> he receives a swing from liberal democrats to the conservatives of just over 6%. let's hear what he has to say at this crucial stage of the evening. >> thank you very much. can i first of all thank the police, the returning officer, and all his team, all the people who work in the polling stations across this constituency, and all the people who came to count the votes tonight. .
what's all my local helpers who worked so hard in these elections and the local elections. it is wrong to single out any body but my agent, who knows every inch of this constituency and their -- and almost everybody who lives in it, did a fantastic job. i would like to go on record thanking him. above all, i want to thank people who put their trust in me to be your member of parliament.
what ever happens tonight, what ever the future may hold, i will always work hard as a constituency and pete, standing up for your interests, some standing up for you and acting on things you care about. it is an immense privilege and a pleasure to represent this wonderful part of our country. 85 rural parishes. a lovely part of the country. what ever happens, i will go on standing up for you and being a good stint -- a good constituency empty. naturally, we have to wait for the full results to come out. i believe it is already clear that the labour government has lost its mandate to govern our country. although there are many more results to come out, it looks as though the conservative party is on target to actually win more seats than we have at any election for perhaps as long as
80 years. i think we should be proud of the campaign that we forced. it was a positive and energetic campaign. it was a campaign about printing change to our country. it was not a campaign that needed to make a negative points about others. it was a positive campaign that we should be proud of. most importantly, what is clear from the results, is that our country wants change. that change is going to require new leadership. what ever happens tonight, we will stand ready to do all that we can to help bring that leadership, to bring strong, stable, decisive and good government for our country. what will guide me in the hours ahead and perhaps longer will be the national interest to do what is right for our country, to make sure we have that government, we have that stability, we make the right
decisions. we do live in difficult times for our country. this is a great country and we will come through them and be stronger. at all times, what i will do, is put the national interest first to make sure we have good, strong, stable government for our country. thank you very much, indeed. >> david cameron saying that we have to wait for the results but labour has clearly lost its mandate to govern. the country wants to change and new leadership and he is ready to bring leadership. that is what will guide him in the hours ahead. not actually claiming to be that leader to take over government but saying the others do not have the right to stay. >> he cannot do with -- do that but there was a real sense of uncertainty in the way he spoke.
whatever the future may hold. whatever happens. he stood ready to do something. he did not say i would be the guy who does this. leadership instability that the country needs. without any hand exactly what that -- without any hint what that means. we are not at all clear if they had failed to get a majority and we have had quite a few results were they should have gained seats, target number 11, target number 12. >> are you suggesting that he might be talking to nick clegg? lib dems is finished, let's talk? -- labour is finished, let's
talk? >> they had a lot of thinking to do with the relationship of parties. they must have thought through, and tito, what their approach to nick clegg would be if they need it to secure a government. that would not necessarily mean a coalition. they could come to an arrangement with the liberal democrats. >> demands for change in the actual system. there are cars on the move everywhere. we are watching pictures of david cameron leaving whitney and here is gordon brown on his way to the airport. let's hope the volcanic cloud has vanished. i do not know which airport there are going to. edinburgh i imagine.
on his way to downing street where he will wait and of course it is the most curious of all nights. there is no sense of real drum up. everybody is biting their nails and waiting and waiting. you have not heard from anybody except one person saying labour has lost. guard david cameron is acutely aware of how difficult it would be to the prime minister and the ways in these times with the trouble we are seeing in the market but how much more difficult it will be if he does not appear to have a clear mandate and is fighting for every vote. i will embarrass the professor. he knows constitutional history. he knows how difficult it was to govern in the 1920's. >> we will talk about that more and a moment.
this is his seat about to be declared. the two-tiered david cameron so you know the kind of man he is. let's get the result. 8194. anthony fox, scottish socialist party, 319. scottish conservative and unionist, 11,026. scottish national party, 5530. i declare that alistair darling has been duly elected to serve in parliament as a member for the edinburgh southwest constituency. [applause]
speaking at southwest. >> the way in which you have conducted the evening. i would also like to thank the police for all the work they have done throughout this day. i would also like to thank my fellow candidates in this constituency for the way in which they conducted this campaign. lastly, but most importantly, i want to thank everybody in edinburgh southwest who supported me today. it is a great honor and privilege to serve as a member of parliament for a constituency in the city and i look forward to serving my constituents in this last -- in this next parliament. thank you very much, indeed. >> not talking about the state of the country or what is happening to the economy.
>> he will state chancellor and have to deal with the markets and crisis. >> john simpson is at the airport at edinburgh with the prime minister is on his way to come down south. >> i am on the plane with the prime minister and we are on our way. we will be taken off very shortly. strange mood. the earlier hopes seem to have faded yet everybody has to say we did not know until the last results. it is all kind of unclear. it does not look to me that the hope that existed before the exit polls came out that the hope is still going.
every time there is a labour win, a shout goes around and people cheer up a bit. i think it is slipping away and they can feel it slipping away. >> if that is so, you would speculate that gordon brown might well tomorrow or later today resign as prime minister. >> i do not think he will do that. he will not give the game up until the game gives him up. if it become -- once we have all the results and and we can see what has happened, i do not think he will go before then. i am fairly sure of it. even the speech when he was elected had a very energized sound of recounting achievements in office. i think he is fully prepared to
go. we will see. courts we are watching you on the tarmac. i suppose there is no way that gordon brown might stand down and make way for another leader of the labour party. if he is demoralized, is there any way he might let the labor party have another leader? >> he says he wants a stable government. he said if there were an offer, he would have to recognize that. nick clegg could say to him that i cannot do a deal with you. i could do a deal with somebody else because we of the
progressive left and of course perfectly possible although it hugely controversial. if it ever happened that way, do not forget the personal element. it is a huge personal rebuff for gordon brown. he did not get formally elected. he has not stood for election as prime minister. he will feel this moment very painfully, not least because he believes and as he travels around the world, he is told that he got a lot right. >> he must've seen it coming. the popular sentiment was against them. >> in the last few days, they had a sense that something was picking up for the labour party. he found his voice. there was a hope. there is a difference between knowing you are going down and it is horribly painful. >> who are the people traveling
with gordon brown? >> this is the kind of thing that nobody wants to say at the moment but i suspect, yes. i suspect everybody knows better than i do because my area as foreign affairs. what the state of play is likely to be. it is just very difficult. to have it possible for two parties, neither of them have done very well, and i think that is what people here are seeing. on mayqueen's speech is 25. what do they think might happen if the wait until then? west could gordon brown or another labour leader get
through a parliamentary debate? there is no vacancy and the post of prime minister until gordon brown resigns or is defeated. >> we have missed a trick with you. you taught david cameron. you know him. >> very well. >> tell him about -- tell us about him. >> he was an outstanding student. he has a fund to permit for a politician. he does not buckle under pressure. he reflects on things before acting. he will know what to do in this situation. i think the speech he gave in his constituency is a good sign of that. very calm, very cool. it hit the right notes. >> did you teach them about the elections of the 1920's when exactly the same deals have to be done? >> i suspect all of this is etched on his brain. >> that is a yes.
>> it is very rare that a university don claims that his people remains -- says that -- retains anything he said. >> he disagreed with me on a large number of things but nevertheless, i think the observed -- of sort a great bacamount. >> i think we can leave that enchanting view for a moment because it does not show us anything at all. >> thank you. it is that stage of the evening where we need to know who is the next government. state your case. >> we have been without the latest results. some time to wait before we get a very clear picture.
the swing does not appear to be uniform. i think it is very clear that the public has voted for change and i think that we wait to see how the numbers tallied up. we may not get any sleep tonight. >> state your case as to why we should continue to be governed by you guys. >> i am terribly sorry but i could hardly hear what liam said so i apologize for not being able to apologize -- to engage very well. as far as i can see, the opinion poll or exit poll projection you did at the beginning of the broadcast suggests that no party would win this election is being blown out. there are some remarkable winds that labour is achieving in some places. that suggests to me that the prediction of a hung parliament
remains the case. if no party has won an absolute majority, it seems perfectly reasonable and write about that party should talk to each other to see if they can find common ground to a establish a strong and stable government. there is no harm and that. it is a good thing to do with the voters have not embraced any of us and not given the absolute majority we are seeking. >> you are sitting here, a senior liberal democrat strategist, you could be the teammate. who would you go with? >> the people have been speaking and they have not finished speaking. we have to let them finish speaking first. we have to consider what message is that they sent. >> you have no view? >> you have to pay respect to the voters and let them have
their say. >> nick clegg made it quite clear that the first option should be given to the party with the largest number of seats. >> what he actually said was the person with the largest mandate should have the first opportunity to see if they can form a government plan them that is the first opportunity. what we think needs to happen is we all need to get together. >> no one policy have -- has a majority. that is not a bad thing. you actually support another party to do anything and that is not a bad thing. it needs to be performed to make it democratic. if one party was to get their way over everything, it should give people more of what they want.
>> do you find this prospect attractive? crypts one of the things that is difficult for the public, when you get into hung parliament territory, is the decisions about what programs will be followed will be decided by politicians behind closed doors rather than at the ballot box. it is difficult to know exactly where we will hand out. it looks as though we will make the biggest number of games that any party has made in a single election. >> let me ask you a simple question. can you imagine doing a deal with the liberal democrats? >> i think the first thing is determine what program we have to have. if other people in the house of commons would agree to a program, that would be an issue. the idea to treat it with
principles is quite another. >> it is about 20 past three in the morning. could we just have a straight answer? can you imagine circumstances under which he would do a deal with liberal democrats? >> i think we will wait to see what the results are. when we get the results, we will see what program the country needs. >> you are not ruling it out. >> did you hear me? >> -- talking to me? " try again and i will listen very carefully. >> see if you can do lip reading. you exercise no such inhibition of the time william fox is suggesting, that there has to be a great thinking about. as far as you're concerned, there is enough common ground to enter into discussions.
the tv screen has gone down because it is raining. no lipreading. i think i heard you ask whether or not i was would be saying that it was impossible to imagine circumstances in which talks would take place. i think if the voters have decided collectively that there is no party that can win their affections and 325 constituencies, where honor bound to recognize we are and a new political situation. politicians should talk to each other and see whether or not there is common ground that can provide strong and stable government for the country. that must be the right thing to do. >> can you hear me now? >> i can hear every third or fourth word. >> that is probably enough. >> we are being told that talks have already begun between labour and the liberal democrats. is that true? >> i have absolutely no idea
about that. not to my knowledge. i have met with my local lib dem here but i did not think that counts. >> thank you very much. >> thank you. liberal democrats talk about balanced parliament. when you look at the pattern that is emerging with a 220 seats in, there does not seem to be any bounce. it is one way than the other. it could be the conservatives, even with the support of those people who would be keen to support them, would not have a majority put it equally, it is perfectly possible that labour and the liberal democrats combined would not have an automatic overall majority. >> if i think that is what the biggest question tonight is what is in david cameron's mind about his capacity to build a coalition.
in the agenda for change that he wishes gordon brown would have adopted. david cameron will be thinking tonight, what do i have to do? i can claim victory and those four seats but i may not have enough. is he personally willing, i think the answer is yes, to pick up the phone to nick clegg. could he bring his party with him? single party powerful government brought up under market thatcher. it would be very difficult. >> there is this idea he could bring them in by saying we will not support a change in the coding system but we will give you a referendum. within one year. by the way, we will argue against an but if you want to have it, we will do it. is that something that would appeal to his colleagues?
>> i do not think it would appeal to them one bit. positione starting would be to go to the liberal democrats and say it is in the interest of the country to have stable government. underneath that, people are fighting. >> every single leader will claim they are doing what is necessary in the national interests. >> i think the liberal democrats could support the conservatives without a referendum on electoral reform. >> even if the said the tories would oppose him. >> i do not believe the conservative party would set a referendum on the electoral circuit. this is a chance for gordon brown.
very difficult for the conservatives to do. >> there is one hope the liberal democrats have is getting electoral reform into the system. at gordon brown is prepared to offer an immediate referendum, the liberal democrats would think very hard about it. they are meeting on sunday morning. it would be very difficult to reject that, in my opinion. >> that is where your money lies. let's have a look at the tory battleground. only you can make it clear. >> i wish i could. we are looking at these very regular results and try to see the pattern. we start with a map of the results of 2005. that is the political jogger -- political geography where we are now. we will put up the tory targets, the ones we started the evening with before we have the exit poll. we listed 250 seats.
the easiest one to get, 15 vote majority. so on down. these are all colored and as there were in 2005. the least vulnerable to a conservative attack, the bottom right hand corner. let me put it up and the colors of the seats we know about. if we are trying to spot a trend, this is when we can start to do it. let's point out a couple of things. it seems to be the case that in this column and the one next to it, the ones where the seats should be easiest for the conservatives to take. when they have taken them, chester, 6% or 7% swings. they have taken them handsomely. look at these two seats. lib dems have held them off.
the liberal democrats would possibly save the seeds even in the first column. the same for the nationalists and the second column. as we go down the board, remember i mentioned the 116th seat on the board, they need 116 that for an overall majority. we do not have that one yet but we do have a bolten northeast. that has gone to labour. if you are looking at the board, 150th seat goes labour. all the way over to the other side of the board, a huge swing for the conservatives.
as you look, maybe we can look at the entire board. if there is any chance of spotting a padded, it is on this board. we will have to see some more results. this second, third, fourth columns. how much blue to the tories get in there as these results come in? you can see seats coming in easy -- even as some speaking. can they make up for that by going past and picking up labour seats at that look difficult on paper? >> thank you. nick clegg is yet another person in a motor car and he is heading off. i think these pictures are very interesting but rather on the feeling -- but rather unrev
ealing. probably a nick clegg very chastened by tonight. even though he tried to keep the euphoria at down, it has not been a very good night. he had a good rally the other night. on the whole, it has not been the kind of night he wanted. >> that is the extraordinary story of tonight. he may have failed but is about to be playing a crucial role in who the next government of britain is if not, in fact, having a job in it. there is no doubt he will be hugely disappointed with how he did and how his success has not translated into the party success. they might determine how the next government of britain is. >> one of his losses was a conservative game. -- .
gain. he was one of those criticized by the standard to missionary in the house of commons for various expense claims that he made. that may have had an effect. the swing their 5.8% to the conservatives from the liberal democrats. that may be what is happening in the southwest. we shall see. and to smith, labour, holds on to this. . .
>> i'm not saying big ears. >> yes, i am. >> and it is extraordinary. >> it is frustrateling. >> it is a good night but i voted for aircraft carriers. because i believed in aircraft car years. i voted for that. >> bill, you think the conservatives can win? >> i really hope so. yes. >> you're a conservative. >> yeah, working class. i grew up and -- labor did
nothing for me. >> you must be disappointed. >> i want something to happen. i don't care what it is. >> i'm going to leave you. >> and i'm going to speak to the journalist, because you know, journalist have it -- all sorts of opinions and analysis of how the election has gone and a i think a lot have turned out to be completely wrong. let's hold three to account right now. andrew, what is happening? >> actually, i think a fairly clear pattern is beginning to develop. and, there's a swing to the conservative, which is quite daunting if you look in areas of southern england, it is getting up. >> and some of those. but it gets harder and harder for david cameron as it goes up the m 1 or m 6.
he's struggling and the north seats they need to win to get a majority, they're not get chg i think means we're looking at probably a conserve tiffer minority government, and certainly looks unlikely the conservatives could get a majority. >> that's disappointing. if they can't win in a recession, against an unpopular prime minister, i would have -- with a multi-million campaign whshes could they win? >> it is pretty well -- it is -- go away. >> it is pretty well certain, there's a conservative judgment. >> why did you say that >> because of the momentum. you can't get it to click from a party that defeated and liberals that haven't broken through. all poment yum, and swing and development has come from the tourists. the questions is it quite enough? and witness cameron was speaking earlier at his declaration, what he was saying was i will
actually try and find a way of diagnose a deal if i can't win outright. >> you don't think he'll form a minority government. >> that was national interest. there's a code for being able to reach out if you have to. >> and my belief, a code for self-interest. do you think he's right or a chance for a lapse kind of arrangement? >> i'm sure gordon brown will do that. he'll want to see how it falls. if there were 260 labor m.p.'s and 60 liberal democrat m.p.'s, he could do it. >> it would be a coalition of the defeated. that's the trouble. >> and the conservatives. >> and one other problem which is nick cleg said, he thought the party that had the most votes and seats would have the right to be the first to try and form a government. >> and -- although mr. cameron may be sure of a majority, i don't think anybody will argue he won't have most votes.
mr. cleg, play, who knows, he may be rooting he made that declaration, but he did. >> what about this that we have been sticking up for the past four weeks? >> one play say, -- one may say the crucial moment was when the last hour, the last 45 minutes of the third debate, when nick cleg tried to defend the amnesty on immigration and on the euro. brave positions to take and he was on the back foot and momentum began to drain then. >> charles, muir -- what are you doing taking the hospitality and you won't pay the bbs fee? >> and i'm -- >> and law breaker out. back to the studio. >> and so say all of us. thank you, very much, andrew. and a liberal democrat gain,
let's see that. and swing of nearly 10% from labor to this -- to the liberal democrats in -- and this was an m.p. standing down, and just after one term. and she was famous for having a -- a bit of a set too with the common fees office, over removing arctic ceiling from her home, which she called delapdation and a new candidate moved in and forced into second place and gordon was the council leader and takes burnley. and nick cleg is now. there's. >> mr. cleg. >> he's scuffling into the house. >> and wherever those hedges are and not speaking. and something to think about. >> a huge amount to think about. what does he do now if cameron picks up the phone? on the one hand, he said that whoever is the largest party would have a mandate to
transform a government. on the other, he he knows there's a gulf in the policy position. and where he doesn't have the moral authority of a huge gain in votes. and brief glimpse of his wife there. miriam. and you remember when -- when heath tried to ring jeremy thorpe, they couldn't get through and -- they didn't get through until midnight and thorpe said his telephone wasn't working. maybe that's the secret. and i owe my mobile was off. and i are not out of battery and wait while we work out what to do. and jeremy had to walk through three fields and didn't want to be seen. >> the big change this time around is that the civil service put enormous amount of preparation and the cabinet has studied what happened tpwht scottish parliament and the welsch assembly and he's flown to new zealand and they'll facilitate this and they'll provide staff to try and make it happen. >> thank you so much, nick.
let's, have a look at the whole picture, the big scene. the world as you see it. >> as we see it from up here in our &, well over a third of seats have been declared so far and we look to be heading for a hung parliament and it is in the clear what form it is going to take. the swing suggests that the conservatives are in the on course at the moment at any rate to get a majority, though they're likely to have the most seats and the liberal democrats don't seem to be making headway and it may be some time to find who may be capable of being prime minister and it play depend on a handful of seats. this is the current state of the parties. there they are. conservatives, 122 seats and labor 107 and lib dems on 19 and others on 24. cameron was speaking and while he maintained the labor lost the election, he stopped short of claiming the conservatives have
won. >> now nationally, we have to wait for the full results to come out. and i believe it is already clear that the labor government has lost its mandate to govern our country. >> and the election watchdog, the electoral commission is to investigate what went wrong at a number of polling station where people were turned away and denied the chance to vote. they were up to the 10:00 deadline as the officials struggled to deal with the turnout and they were turned away. and police report at one polling station after dozens of people were told, it was too late to vote. >> and the question is, and -- scenes of frustration and anger were film bid disappointed local residents.
that was half hour and then back and we're told. >> and the fifth home. and in the being able to -- >> and there's only one seat and that's the at the present time unionist party leader and you could follow the results nom here in the studio but also online and back now to david. >> thanks. thanks. and news that conservatives are going hastings and rye in sussex and the swing of 3% of the conservatives, 23rd in their target seats and they're about to give the deck harration in car high school, right up by the border with scotland and -- held by labor since -- 1964 and it is -- it is, just the -- beyond the 1-16 range if the torries overall majority. it is 132 in their list of possibles. thick could happen tonight, because anything is happening.
>> and eric has been the m.p. and since 1987 and the -- is standing down. >> and left in his place. >> and returning off of it. the democrats are in third place. do i here by give notice that the number of vets recorded for each candidate is as follows. my -- michael william bouldin, the labour party candidate, 15,000 -- 15,736. and -- peter phillip howe, 263. and neil hughes, liberal democrat, 6,567. john pet calf and carlisle socialist and trade union candidate, 376. and michael john owing, u.k.
independence party 969. and john bernard rierden, the green party, 614. and paul brundy stafford, british national party, 1,086. and andrew john stevenson, the conservative party candidate 16,514. [cheering] >> and -- and do i here by declare that andrew john stevenson is tulely elected. thank you. >> and the conservatives gained carlisle from labor. and a swing from -- labor to conservative of 7.7%. and the majority of 782 to john
stevenson as a solicitor that takes over the few candidate michael boden for labor. >> and right. and -- jeremy, we -- jeremy paxen, we got someone to talk to. >> i hope so. i think we're going to talk to darling. >> you there? >> yes, i can just about hear you. >> excellent. good. and coming up to quarter to 4:00 in the morning, who is in charge of the country? >> the g. remains in place until such time as the change in that. so we're here and we will have to see what the shape of the government has -- the house of commons is tomorrow morning and it is important of course that we do have a stable government, established for very obvious reasons and the exact shape of that, who it is, will have to wait and see, because we e don't have the final shape of the house yet >> isn't this uncertainty about who is going to be in command of the ship, the worst possible
outcome for from a economic point of view? >> what -- what looked firstly, people should be in no doubt that -- that one of the strengths of our constitution is there always is a g. we are the government until such time as that changes, and i think it is important that we have strength and stability, a clear sense of direction and i think people perfectly well understand that we're following a general election, and -- that, you know, there's inevitably some uncertainty, and until you actually see can actually form a government that -- command the confidence of the house. and i think everyone is focused on the fact that we're not only a stable government, we have a government with a convincing plan to secure our recovery and get our borrowing down. that's important. but as of now, we don't know the final shape of the house of commons, inevitably for the next few hours, there is going to be uncertainty. i think people personally --
perfectly well understand that. >> are you expecting to move back into dunning street. as i said to you what happens and who forms the government next -- in -- in after the election, will depend on what the house of commons looks like. at the moment, i think i fixed you up correctly, so your program correctly a few moments ago, when we were trying to -- to get this connection through, that the passing is mixed. we're holding seats that people thought we would lose and clearly we have other seats to hold and the swings are not uniform. we shall have to see and as i said before the election, whatever happens, political parties have to get on with it. whatever the electorate decide, we have to get on with it and a government has to be formed to make sure we have the strength and stability that people expect. >> that government could only be formed couldn't it under gordon brown? >> there would be for other leader the labour party. >> yes, quor do not brown is the prime minister of the leader of the labour party and --
>> he has been rejectsed by the electorate. >> they're passing judgment on all of us. as i said, no matter how frustrating at this hour of the morning, we still don't have a clear picture as to what the house of commons would look like and the government, whatever government it is, has to be in answer to command a majority in the house of commons or at least be able to form a government that could provide the stability and -- the certainty that people want, and that -- that is absolutely essential. but we shall have to wait and see and the results are coming in and there's still a picture that is pretty pixed. a mr. darling, thank you. >> thank you so much indeed. >> nick clegg is there. perhaps he's in the. no. interesting us, there's mr. cle deprks g. arriving.
clegg. >> 43-year-old, same age as david cameron. and -- looking relatively cheerful, relatively calm as he goes through. his wife miriam gonzalez, a spanish lawyer there beside him. she hasn't been on the trail and ropes -- thoughts are going through his mind. >> he could be thinking what went wrong? what do we do now? e- >> he has unpalatable series of choices. they play change his fortune that of his party, but he's going to meet a request to prop you have up an administration or to go in with a defeated labour party to push them out. they're in the easy choices. >> tiny, tiny increase in his share of the vote then. >> but of course, the one thing that clegg has got, enormous experience. he lived and worked where this
sort of deal making and this coalition building is suitly -- absolutely meat and drink. >> and labor has held rotschdale about julian duffy and the 65-year-old grandmother who met the prime minister and he said afterward in the back of the car, i remember with his microphone, there was some big on thed woman that i had to meet. there was a theory that the women of rotschdale would rise up and defend the honor of jillian and vote against brown but actually not. here's the change since last time in rochdale. the labor went down. and conservatives went up eight but in any case, it was -- and the conservative gain in hastings and roye, 3% swing from labor to conservatives. >> and the supporters voted liberal instead of conservative, and a lett of them did.
they would be a liberal democrat. a very small majority. >> and emily has something for us. i don't know what it is. >> such a wide variation and look closely. quhapped in carlisle was pretty startling actually. you you may remember we were talking about carlisle being the kind of seat that cameron has seen and needed to gain to make inroads into the north and they done that, this is exactly the sort of swing that -- above the 7% that they needed to replicate elsewhere and yet they haven't managed to replicate that where they should have done. they haven't taken both the northeast for example and look at that slender swing towards them. it is not been enough, even in places where they have taken them, what we're seeing again is a small swing, don't forget, we're looking at the molecular detail here and not just the gains and losses but what is rippling beneath the surface. this is for the enough. and approximate toe, and even
smaller. and i mean, extraordinary actually that before we have carlisle, the pattern seemed to be they just weren't coming up to the mrk. dar lyle -- carlisle slightly throws it out. >> we have a huge variety of swings and that's a problem for the conservatives who -- who think they need something. and with big swings, like carlisle we saw now and -- about -- but there are other seats that they're only taking narrowly and missing out on. and reaching the point where they could be fair my short, and the conservatives are unquestionably the largest party and they'll fall short, and -- another politician saying what are the voters telling us? and by some genius, 30 million votes are saying, we dislike labor more than the conservatives and after a holiday romance with the liberal democrats, we have our doubts about them as well. all three parties are getting a sobering message from the
electorate. >> any geographical messages we're take ago way. we had a motorway man or woman. >> in the northern bell and that bell, the swing to the conservatives is a bit lower if the key market than the middle and south. and the problem is, there's a couple of dozen labor seats with majority, the torries really need to topple which they may not get in some of the early seats like bolten and chester are typical of this yore shir built. -- belt. >> don't forget if your constituency hasn't come in but you're hearing tips watch our website. and you could look at the nationwide picture there as well. >> we're joined by came -- from came barrage with the authority of chief executives, known by the acronym is solace. that's what you need tonight >> yes. >> it seems like the returning officers haven't been doing that
great a job. >> it is not an easy job. we're well used to criticism and unpopularity. but, i have been watching the coverage and just wanted to come along and make some points to help. and i think you are fair my clear now about how a vote could be issued and the timing and the -- the ability to have people to vote. and if they're in the polling station with the ballot paper in the hand, before 10:00, that's fine. and i just wanted to say as well. this 10:00 deadline is an absolute. we don't have discretion on it. set by parliament and i think it would be wrong if they had discretion on it. what are we going to do? choose people in the queue to come and vote? >> why motte more people and ballot space? there's a story that one place they couldn't count because there weren't enough tables. we're meant to be one of the first democracies that know how to do this.
here we give an example that would shame country that is are just starting their democracies. >> and okay. well, let's look at it carefully. what we have here is a very victorian system that many of us as solace members have argued is much in need of an organization. in fact, it is probably in need of scrapping. because we need a system for the 21st century, which is -- suitable for our lifestyles and in this time. just to go back to the point, on the side of the polling stations, if we put extra staff in, those that voted today will know that each polling station has one register. and one register alone. so when extra staff are coming in, it is not going to help, you may help them manage the queue but only one person ticking the names off on the register. >> i could see, you could have difficulties, what i can't understand is how -- i won't go through the list. i will.
three in sheffield and hong queues in leeds and birmingham people locked out and vetters sent away in manchester. and lewissham people allowed to vote until 10:30 and two places in liverpool running out of ballot papers. it suggests a kind of failure of imagination. i mean, the voting hasn't gone up. the number of voters hasn't gone up that much since the last election in 2005, has it? >> let's be clear on this. as a returning officer, you don't need imagination. you need to alie the rules, firmly and fair my. these are the ruehl rules sets by parliament. let's deal with this issue. i talked to them tonight. what in fact has happened is that people were admitted to the polling station fromed queue, it is about 70 or 80 of them. they're issued with a ballot paper before the 10:00 deadline. and so that was within the law. and then they -- >> and they voted.
and they were locked in so they couldn't hear what the exit poll was. >> sorry. >> they couldn't hear the exit poll, they were locked in the polling station with their ballot papers. they couldn't go out and say, hey you heard the news? what happened? i'll go vote this way or that way. >> i don't think that's accurate. the people i spoke to would say they acted quite properly they property the voters in, and it was very crowd add they were leaving after they cast their vote. and that is within the law. >> and nick robins, got a brief question. i hope it'll be brief, we got other things to move on to. and let's go quickly. >> how was it different at-bat election in the 90's which were run as i recall perfectly successfully. if it was a victorian system now it was then too. >> you mean the 1956, it was the the 18 -- >> i'm not that old. i can't remember that. >> no. and -- i take the point. and -- when i was -- a chief in
the west midlands and we were doing 8 to 3% turnout there and the systems although under pressure and strain, we could get it to work. i think there are issues very special here today, about the very late surge of people going down to the polling station and -- at 9ish or just before 10:00 in certain particular places. >> and the -- >> and i hope to stop you there. thank you so much. and thanks for coming in and -- and -- i hope that you get some solace somewhere along the line from all of that. i'm grateful to speaking to us. bilson is embarking. let's two to a place that still hasn't declared with the national front is challenging labor. richard? >> and -- the two counts going on here. and we have barking as you say, one of the constituents has been counted and and then we have stories that seem to be unfolding. and if we could go the to constituency that you mentioned
which is margaret hodge's constituency, the minister and sitting m.p. and the -- nick griffin the leader of the party, targeted this seat, lots of effort here and was em barringing today and people saying look, they have been very high-profile out and about. what we're hearing now and it is an hour before a declaration and the v.m.p. wanted to get to second and it looks like they'll be back in third behind the conservatives. that's what we're hearing from labor and b.m.p. and they got a story developing here. this is the seat at the moment of john curtis who has been talked about somebody who may be involved in the mayber hierarchy in the future. he had a 6,000 majority last time and we're told tonight, it is very close. he hasn't actually appeared yet at had:00. we haven't seen him. we're told close and expect a declaration about 5:00. this is what we have heard here, and across the country is the turnout is very high. >> richard, that's fascinating. >> and the turnout was 56%
before. so any way the news is it looks as though they haven't gone to second place and they stayed in third place apart from challenging margaret hodge for the seat. >> and so, let's look. where do we go now. and louden. and -- david davis is there and i think he's going to talk to jeremy from the count. i think that's possible. is it? >> jeremy. >> i hope so tp david davis could you hear me? >> i could hear you fine. brilliant. it seems to me your party could have done well with you leading it, couldn't it? >> let's see what the results are. and so far you got results all over the place. and i think still think that we're going to get an absolute majority of the end of the night. >> and with why do you think that? >> and -- well, because you got, a number of -- a number of counts coming in late and a lot
of recounts going on even near here. and which are -- reflecting the fact that the -- yaur not getting a uniform swing across the country. you're getting very, very big swings in seats which are marginal, where the people know they're choosing the government and another one, vest very close to me. and these seats determine the outcome, not the averages and the big majorities. >> should it turn out to be the case that there's an attempt by the labor and democrats to cobble together what was referred to earlier as a coalition of losers, what would you think about that? >> the public at large would see a coalition of losers. whatever criticisms you have of the system, you you -- you should not be used to keep in office a government clearly rejected by the public at large and certainly shouldn't be propped up by the liberal democrats. yao i don't understand that. i mean, if they more seats, why