tv Politics Public Policy Today CSPAN April 6, 2012 2:00pm-8:00pm EDT
there will have the nine countries that violated the non- proliferation -- nine countries have gone nuclear. we have the three countries that you mentioned and we also have algeria, bahrain, and the united arab emirates. they have announced nuclear programs. the nine countries in the context of the u.s.-soviet competition. does that change the likelihood of more countries getting nuclear-weapons? >> we should hope every country
in the world develops its nuclear program the way the uae has. there is no possibility for proliferation. we have seen countries go back and forth, but not actually go all the way. in the event that iran will be consummated its nuclear program, we might be able to use sanctions. there are not -- there are not a
lot of countries that would like to go through what north korea and iran would want to go through -- went through. i do not know any of the countries you listed are willing to be the pariah states iran and north korea are. there are a lot of options to address the concerns you raised. >> one of the reasons volind -- colin is more optimistic than i am is because he says they would never get a nuclear weapon. if china gets a nuclear weapon, it would lead to a cascade in asia. other countries could develop nuclear weapons. some of those countries did develop nuclear weapons and other countries did not. we are likely to see the same thing in the middle east. some countries will not get nuclear weapons and others will
not. colin said one of the things we could do is provide security guarantees to countries. that is a big increase in u.s. political and military commitments in the region. we are talking about assigning formal defense pacts with saudi arabia. what we should be doing is bred to fight a nuclear war on behalf of solid-threatened to fight a nuclear war on behalf -- threaten to fight a nuclear war on behalf of saudi arabia. are we willing to sacrifice new york for saudi arabia? there are serious consequences. >> center for strategic and international studies and former
state department. ironically, you brought up a point i wanted to ask about. with the disclaimer that analogies are dangerous. why is there not more focus on the idea of a limited coalition. i am not talking about a whole national security guarantees or a many nato. -- a mini-nato. many of those countries do not want to spend their money on nuclear capabilities. they want to reassure their people that they are protected. there is an idea that seemed to make a lot of sense. that is that we should look at starting to build a coalition. a disclaimer about analogies to others, with saudi arabia, with
turkey, with the gulf states. attack against one it is an attack against any. it has a number of elegant elements to it. one is the long term arab-person conflict, sia -- shias, sunnis. there are a lot of reasons for the rest of the world to want to wall off without having to compete with iran. my question to you all is why it is not more being done on this? this has to be done on a longer term. it does not have to be a big coalition that requires treaties. it would really get the iranians attention. is no one doing anything on this? if not, why not? .
>> it is a good question. parts of the problem is we have these three different paths and we are not properly planning for any of them. it is not clear to me what our strategy is going through these negotiations, what we are willing to offer the iranians. if we are serious about military negotiations, there are things we could do about building a coalition. it is not clear to me that is going on. it is difficult to plan for a nuclear arms iran when you are stated policy is to prevent iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. proposals for dealing with a nuclear iran are things developed better outside of think tanks and universities. it is difficult for the administration to do that for political reasons. >> i would not say political. it is just diplomatic.
the minute his signal you are doing intensive planning for detainment and deterrence architecture inside the pentagon for a nuclear arms iran, the signal to the israelis that we better strike now. you signal to the saudi arabia is that we are not willing to live with a nuclear arms iran. >> if you attack one of us, you attack all of us. that is not the same as containment. >> if you imagine it as a security guarantee that applies in the aftermath of iran getting a nuclear weapon, it is a form of extended deterrence. >> i have not read all the details of the proposal. he says smart stuff all the time, so i do not want to misinterpret him. i would be cautious about having a limited club because you are saying, it is ok not to the --
leading countries out of security and asians -- security invaded -- security umbrellas. you can have a policy that the middle east and the gulf and israel are in the fundamental national interests of the united states, that we will resist any effort by outside powers to change borders or attack others with any means up to and including nuclear weapons. we would not have to change our force posture that much to do this. we already have enough tripwire forces in the region. we have 800 forces in saudi arabia that conduct training. if there is a war in the gulf, we are in it already. you do not need to deploy additional forces there. we might have to alter our
nuclear posture. there is a time when they have icbm's when they cannot penetrate our military defenses. we would be able to hold iran at risk forever with our nuclear and conventional capabilities. our ability to deter iran is higher than people presume. it would not take a lot of radical shifts in the posture we already have. i would be cautious about going down the formalize route. turkey would not want to be part of a formal arrangement. it is not their style. they would be more comfortable with an informal declaratory posture. >> i am barbara. i have two quick questions. do you think the campaign coming directly from the israeli population -- i do not know if you heard about the campaign of
iranians, we love you and we would never bought you campaign, going around. do you think it would change the relations between israel and iran. if war were to come, what do you think would be the role of other countries? a lot of them are led by factions that are not exactly a pro-israel. >> thank you. >> i think these movements in israel are important. there are similar movements on the palestinian issue. we need to be cautious about too much optimism. if you look at the polling in israel, it is complicated. the israeli public is divided as to whether israeli military action is a good idea or not. it becomes complicated and you ask the question, would you israeli foreign --
israeli unilateral action if the united states does not support it. as it relates to the arab spring, we do not know. we need to be careful about either israeli or american military action in the current context because of the regional dynamics. it would allow iran to play the victim and disgust as a -- and resuscitate its sstreat -- street cred. an attack would allow them to start to pull up from that he said. it would allow the muslim brotherhood and others who do not like the iranians to use a
strike against another muslim country to demonize the israelis and the americans. as populism takes hold in this part of the world more and more, we have to worry about the arab street more and more and their reaction. a lot of people say they will be clapping if you cut the head awful mistake. that may be true. on the streets of cairo and tu nis and beirut and baghdad and elsewhere, they would not be clapping. would that make things more messy than they are now? , probably. the rest, i do not know. >> [unintelligible] >> i do not know what it means for israel to be the victim in this equation. we do not want to wait for israel to be attacked by iran. that is all the more reason why
you stick to the diplomatic route as long as it is liable. you want to be -- the onus to be on iran and to be seen as rejecting a general offer to have a peaceful solution. toy do that, iran's ability pay -- to play the victim would be undermined. >> we have come to the point where it is time for our closing statements. >> i will be brief. i am really pleased that we are having this discussion. i wrote an article in foreign affairs in the january and said uri eshoo they not the case for military action in iran and -- january delay it out the case for military action in iran and i took a lot of heat for it. i felt like iran was marching
toward nuclear weapons capabilities. a lot of people had their head in the sand and putting all of their eggs in the sanctions and diplomacy basket. i would be delighted if we could solve this through diplomacy. but i do not think we can. sometime soon will will -- we will have to make a tough choice between acquiescing to a military -- a nuclear iran and making a military choice. it would be threatening to u.s. national security without having this discussion. i am delighted to simply have the discussion. colin pointed out that there are risks to a strike and that we have time for diplomacy. i agree with that. we have less time than colin thinks. given the grave threat of a nuclear iran, nothing that he
has said leads me to back away from my conclusion that if we are faced with this difficult choice, the strike is the least bad option. >> i think the tall and the assumptions one brings into this issue are really important. ultimately -- matt and i have done this many times -- by discomfort comes from the fact that, on the one -- my discomfort comes from the fact that, on the one hand i am worried about the assumptions about a nuclear iran. i think it is really bad, not as bad as some argue. nevertheless, we have to be cautious about worst-case assumptions. in 2003, the war in iraq started and cost more than 100,000 iraqi
dead and more than $100 trillion and growing. we adopted worst-case assumptions about a phantom menace. we have to be careful not to do that anymore. the second thing is we need to be careful about having worst- case assumptions about the prospects for diplomacy. we can easily talk ourselves into saying, that is it, that is the last drop, not it is time for military action -- that is the last straw, now is the time for military action. a lot of people pick up that phone that may-- that tone -- that tone. we have to be careful about adopting best case assumptions about how the world will go and
what the aftermath will be like. i have been involved in the pentagon for a long time. there is an old cliche in the pentagon that no plan survives first contact with the enemy. the world will not go according to the way that matt proposed. it will go on certain projects series -- trajectories. a globally economy is now pulling out of a great recession. it is time to be cautious and not fall prey to best case assumptions and how much time it will buy and how easy it will be to bottle up iran in the after mass -- the aftermath. be skeptical about the best case assumptions and rejects the worst-case assumptions. i am not as pessimistic about diplomacy at the end of the day
as matt is. i do not think there will be a breakthrough in the coming months. iran is hurting. the regime has given them some freedom of action to dial back the tension. we will see if he is willing to drive back some the nuclear intentions. it is not just the iranians who want to buy time. we all need to buy time. we need to slow the program down to buy time over the next year or two to reach a final resolution to this issue. at this point, i would agree with president obama. there is no military solution short of invasion and occupation that creates a permanent solution to this problem. we should give every opportunity for a diplomatic success before rushing into war. >> less than our guest tonight.
thank you so -- let's thank our guests tonight. thank you so much. you guys are brilliant. [applause] [captioning performed by national captioning institute] ca[captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2012] >> tonight on c-span, reporters and photographers who have covered the conflicts in syria and egypt and why they keep going back to these war zones. >> i have a little bit of a reverse personality. when things are really, really
good, they can be unmanageable. when things are really, really bad, they are called calm. it is amazing. i am not say they feel fear -- they do not feel fear, they do. they manage it and channel it. they just concentrate and they are calm. then they have to wait for a helicopter and they are bouncing off of the antenna going nuts because it is calm. when they are out there in the middle of it -- i do not cover the capitals. i work from the field. when you are out there, it is so busy and it can be intense. it is self organizing. you can leave it behind. you are not in those kind of situations when you are at home. we are at home, you can get stuck in traffic and you are
just a guy stuck in traffic. >> after that, see a tribute to maryland senator barbara mikulski. last month, she became the longest serving female member of congress. >> i am is still a fighter and still a reformer. i am still-young girl in the blue jumper -- i am is still that young girl in the blue jumper. i will continue to work with all of you in this room. you are here because you make a difference. let's continue to work together and make change and may the force being with us. [applause] >> then a tribute to two former senators for their combined 100 years of public service. >> it is a great honor and a
genuine privilege to serve with each of you. i know you wish i had learned more. quite frankly, just simply to know you both. >> reporting on war and conflict and said he is to barbara mikulski, howard baker, and bob dole. it is tonight starting at 8:00 p.m. eastern on c-span. >> tonight on c-span 2, it is "book tv" in prime-time. first, the story of the u.s. army's first line active duty officer. and then a look at the israeli- palestinian conflict. after that, the rise of the comanches, the most powerful
indian tribe in american history. all tonight beginning at 8:00 p.m. eastern on "book tv" on c- span 2. >> join our live call in program with chris kyla as he talks about becoming the most lethal sniper in american history. >> she said, when i get a raise at work, he is proud of me. it is like, we got a raise. i thought she had redefined providing to include what her husband does. >> liza mundy on the changing role of the breadwinner of the family. america the beautiful author
compares the decline of empires of the past with america. sunday at 3:30 p.m. "book tv" every weekend on c- span 2. -- this year'sst studentcam competition asked students what part of the competition was important to them. >> the second amendment of the constitution was created to protect the people in case the government began to powerful. the people would have the opportunity to strike down an oppressive government. >> this part of the constitution was ratified in 1781. >> it was placed in the
constitution as a marker of the possibility of what has to be admitted as the violent overthrow of an oppressive government. >> behind the words of this seemingly simple statement, complex arguments. how do you define the word arms? how difficult should it be to get a gun? is the second amendment a necessary right? >> the majority of our pro- gunned action consists of mostly conservative. one such group is the nra, the national rifle association. >> when the authorities cannot protect you, they have no authority to deny you the right
to protect yourself. [applause] >> in the defense of pro-gun advocates, the founding fathers had much to say. >> i asked, what is the militia? is the whole people. to disarm the people is the most essential way to enslave them. the best we can hope for is that they be properly arms. fire arms send important as the constitution itself. -- stand as important as the constitution itself. >> despite all of the shootings that have occurred worldwide, such as the one in virginia -- at the virginia tech university, some people hold fast to their beliefs.
here is the opinion of a virginia tech student. >> yes, i do believe it is an individual right. the second amendment says people have the right to bear arms. it means any human being or any citizen is allowed to have a fire arm. no, they have not. they have not altered my opinion. it might have made my opinion stronger. i think people should have firearms. it is a good idea to on a fire arm. many colleges should look into allowing nuclear weapons on campus.
basically, if people are allowed to have concealed weapons on campus, and those people are following the law are doing it for protection. that will enter into the mind of people are going to be hostile. if they are entering a classroom or a building and they are thinking they want to bring in a gun, they might think twice about it because somebody else might have a gun for protection. >> pro-gun activist groups are diverse. there is a another side to this issue, that is the anti-gun rights movement. a man wanting to exact revenge on feminist killed people at a
small college. in britain, 16 children and their teacher were gunned down in scotland. the killer commit suicide. >> in australia, a man killed 35 on the island of tasmania. >> in the united states, two high school students go on a rampage in colorado before committing suicide. >> april 3, 2009. a man runs amok in binghamton, new york killing 13. >> a man a grizzly from korea kills people at virginia tech. the-a men are rigidly from korea kills people at gdynia -- a man originally from korea kills students at the virginia
>> the co-ath yours are with us. mike allen, who does the political playbook each morning. your playbook came out while i was live on the air. i haven't had time to read it. what is your lead? guest: our lead is a great kay for the republican party. across the front page is a triple crown. there is a great story for republicans, and i've heard you talking about the stories, but on the front page of the "new york times," "wall street journal" and "l.a. times," a story that will warm your heart. we have a sneak peek at an article sunday. he says the number one pick for the advice presidential paul ryan.
number two is louisiana govern bobby jindal. she thinks senator rob portman of ohio, and then tim pawlenty. host: two of the stories, big turnaround on fundraising for g.o.p. fanl. $110 million closes the gap with the democrats, and a fundraiser of another sort. super pack money stalled despite obama green light. a plus and minus on the fundraising side this morning. let me introduce you to evan thomas, who is the co-arthur of this -- the co-author of this book. let's talk about the pluses and minuses of writing this book while the campaigning is unfolding in front of you? guest: we are doing something
that is new. teddy white's book came out more than a year after the campaign. news week picked up this tradition, and every four years, news week week -- and i wrote the last four of them. this is a very expensive bit of journalism, $1 million a pop for one story that would appear the day after the election. now the deal was you would tell us your secrets if you are the campaign, and we won't print the outcome um the day after the election. what mike and i are trying to do is harder. we are trying to do it in real time. everybody is on the internet and in the moment. we were able to do this reasonably well because mike has great access. at playbook, everybody talks to mike. but it is trickier because it is hard to get people talking about their innermost secrets before the votes are cast. readers can judge for
themselves. i think we are getting inside. it is a first rough draft of history as somebody once said. there are going to be others. it is certainly a fun read because it has been a very entertaining campaign. >> therein lies the critique of some of your work. i don't think i saw very many aattributed quotes. they are talking to you you as unsortsed. they will give you the quote but won't allow their name to be printed. what is your response to this sort of printing? >> we pushed people to go on the record, the people who are named. in campaigns if the people aren't names, almost by definition what they are saying is spin. what we tried to do in "inside the circus" is take you behind the spin and get these people talking honestly, candidly, and they are not going to do that on the record, real time or any
time. we described them as specifically as we can, their current role and former role, so people can evaluate what they are reading. we quote only people we trust, that we believe know are close to the sun or inside the sun who can give us something we believe is true and that is congruent with what we learn elsewhere. there are plenty of people around campaigns who will app. we only use them if we think it is true and the campaigns have told us that what we have put here rings true. we are going with literal accuracy. you add up two and two, and you get four, not five or three. >> evans thomas, this is installment two. what time period is focused on here? >> it is basically the winter. we do a little bit in the fall, but basically it goes from iowa
through louisiana. obviously we didn't get tuesday night's because the book came out on tuesday. but pretty close to the moment through the louisiana primary. >> and it is primarily focused on mitt romney as you go through. mr. santorum plays a big part. you hear about mr. gingrich and ron paul to some degree, but it seems as though you were beginning to tell us the story about the man who is likely to be the g.o.p. nominee, is that correct? >> yes. we started reporting on this a long time ago, so we couldn't be sure, but the arrows pretty clearly pointed to it being romney. he was the establishment candidate. it was his to lose. we did the best we could to get inside his operation. we spent a lot of time with people extremely close to him, including family members. we did get a lot of access.
there are layers and layers here, and we may find out later that we didn't get everything, but we got a lot. >> what is the portrait, since it focuses so much on mitt romney -- what is the portrait that people will learn from him that may be different from what they see on the campaign trail? guest: what we tried to do on "inside the circus" published by random house, conceived and edited by john meacham at news week, we tried to show how the campaign was portraying him and reveal their frustration in how he is coming off. what we heard time and again was that people who really knew mitt romney didn't feel like he was being portrayed the way they knew him. they admit that is partly the campaign's fault, partly his fault and partly the fault of the press. his oldest son, tag romney,
said that his dad has always been sort of a mr. fix-it. he would come over to visit, and he would want to talk about the water heater needing fixing, or something needing to be done in the yard, and next time you would come back, he was there with a pickup truck while tag is trying to watch a patriots game. that of course is a big part of the message of the campaign, that is something who can fix the salt lake city olympics, helped improve the massachusetts government and can fix the country. we also behind the scenes see the pass tidyuss side of mitt romney. when we walk into a gym, we wipe down the equipment when we are done, but we assume the person who went before us had the same good will, good gym citizenship to do the same thing. not mitt romney. we had somebody who saw him at the mesa marriott in arizona.
he always stays at marriotts. he was there right before the arizona debate. he walks into a gym and before he uses the equipment, he wipes it down. he used almost a whole pack of wipes, and again when he was done. when he is on his bus, to stay healthy he mixes his own peanut and honey sandwiches. when he is done, he takes bread and cleans off the knife so you don't have to watch it. he flies jetblue and coach. he is so cheap that he doesn't use napkins eating on the bus. host: in cold and flu season, one has to sympathize with politicians, especially with the hand shake. guest: i do sympathize with politicians. that is one of the things we want to get at in the book. they get caricatured, and they are human beings.
they have husbands and wives. they are not as bad as portrayed. i hope we humanized romney a little but. he is a terrible politician. he is really bad at retail politics. he is not that likable. but that doesn't make him a bad person. some of the things that actually make him a good person get in the way of him being a politician. we try to get at that through family members that observe him. we get at that. this is an important thing. you may recall in 2008, the clinton campaign, it was a mess. that told you something about what kind of president she would be. if you can't run your own campaign, how are you going to run the white house? the romney campaign does not leak. there is not that spiteful, back fighting and in-fighting behavior. that is because romney is a good boss. the people who work for him like him. host: before we get into the details, here is a question on
twitter. he says plea ask the author yours if the title is a comment or a catchy title? >> it is a title. people are falling off high wires. there are a lot of ways to extend the metaphors. there is a lot of cleaning up after the elephants as well. it is a light thing, but in a sense it is serious. >> steve you are on. caller: i wish in the next book you come out with would be called the circus that is obama. how he can be worried about a handful of rich white women that want to play golf instead of worrying about the millions of women that are laid off, how he could worry about all the millions of dollars that he
gets from the environmentalists instead of putting in a pipeline. how he could worry about a college woman who goes to a $48,000 a year school and not worry about all the women that can't afford food, all of this because of his policies of spend, spend, spend, so let's print more money. so everything costs more, and more people get laid off. he is a joke. he has to throw things another way so nobody can look at his policies. he is the ring master of the circus. get your mind off the real things. host: let me jump in at that point. we get the sentiment of your comments. where would you pick up the story of the obama re-election campaign. guest: obviously this volume focuses mostly and the republicans. there is a section on the obama folks getting ready, gearing up . in our next installment, which will come out at the time of the conventions, there will be
a lot of obama because well turn to the general elections. there is one that comes out the day after the election. the reader is going to get a lot of obama. so far it has been mostly republicans, but our focus will change. host: mike allen? guest: not only will we hear a lot about president obama, but one of the big advantages of the democratic campaign is that they have been able to build this amazing machine sort of with the garage door closed while the republicans were fighting their race. the folks in chicago, 300-plus, are already building up the obama machine. we talk about here in the book how mitt romney has fewer offices in a single -- excuse me, mitt romney has few offices in the whole country than obama has in a lot of states, as many as a dozen 0 offices in a bump of states, michigan, vlade,
ohio. mitt romney is geared up. scott of clear politics has a story this morning about he went to visit the former romney office in new hampshire, which is a swing-ish state in the "top 10" or 12, and the romney office from new hampshire is closed with a for lease sign, while the obama one has a couple of offices. they have done events in 10 counties. so they have had the luxury of building the organization and working their muscle, where as romney has had to hopscotch from state to state and now has to go back and building organizations in key states. host: that for lease sign would provide an interesting photographic image. this is our first piece of video. this is a story you tell in the book. this is from the myrtle beach debate when governor romney was questioned about his tax returns. >> i looked at what has been done in campaigns in the past
with senator mccain, president george w bush or whatever. they have tended to release tax records in april or tax season. the law requires us to release all of our assets and the things we own. that i have already released. it is a pretty full disclosure. if that has been the tradition, i am not opposed to doing that. time will tell. i anticipate most likely i am going to get asked to do that around the april time period, and i will keep that open. guest: why is this clip of interest, and how does it tell a story about your reporting in this book? guest: it shows that governor romney at that point didn't have a clear, simple, linear answer to the question of his tax returns. evan thomas and i found, as we dug inside the circus, as we got ready to do this second edition for random house, that there was a real split among the advisors to romney.
there were some people who wanted to put out the tax returns sooner, who could see this problem coming. as your viewers and listeners will remember, mitt romney paid a real price somehow there was something for carolina, where he lost to newt gingrich. based on this clip, it made people think that he was disconnected from them, that going on that they weren't seeing. eventually right after south carolina he decided to put the tax returns out. but how do that and when to do that was one of the biggest fights within the romney campaign. and evan has a very interesting point and insight into why the candidate himself was reluctant to do it from the start. >> well, you know, they had a problem coming in, which was they thought be authentic. they focused on the rich man problem. they were focused on the
authenticity problem. they said embrace your money. he didn't think oh, my gosh, i am going to be attacked as a rich man. i am a rich man. i had better be who i am. that is his state of mind going into this, and it takes him a while to get around that curve. the chief strategist warned him that the money could be a problem. the family members and others around him are always protective, a private thing. rich people often don't like talking about their money. it is kind of an old new england thing, talking about money. it made him look distant and remote. it is not hard to understand in human terms, but it was a big mistake because romney had been trying to project i am mr. fix it and will fix the economy, and that worked reasonably well.
then in january the focus shifted to romney, not just the rich man, but romney the private buccaneer, school capitalist scourge, and the picture changes in a way that really hurt romney. host: well, this story on the romney tax returns continues to percolate. here is an item in the "washington post." they call on romney to release more tax returns. president obama and top aids took aim on romney, calling on the likely presidential nominee to disclose hero tax returns and questioned whether he has used loopholes to avoid publicly disclosing more information. another one says candidate declines to disclose holdings. guest: it is going to come back. the issue flared up in january, and it subsided. but you can bet the democrats
are going to come back hard against it. they are going to draw a contrast. obama came from nothing, relatively speaking, from a pretty modest background. romney comes from wealth. not huge wealth. they like to say he is a self-made man, and in many ways he is. but you can be sure the democrats are going to zero in on this, and if there is any suggestion that romney is hiding as well, the democrats are going to make hay. guest: go ahead, mike allen. >> the reaction to this "washington post" piece was a preview of coming attractions and showed us how this battle which was joined this week is going to unfold in the weeks ahead. as you point out, this wasn't in the "washington post" print edition until this morning, but it was posted yesterday. the obama campaign already had a quiet extensive response to it. they had tweets from the
campaign manager, jim mecina, and the official@barack obamaobama campaign, and the hash tack, telling people to communicate among themselves about what mitt romney is hiding. we are seeing it from both sides. a very opportunistic fearless, tough, campaigns going right at each other. guest: someone who calls himself global tunes on twitter asked what are the sales like on the book? we wish you the best. guest: thank you. make myself more recent figures. the first one got up in the top five or something of e-books. i don't know what the overall sales are, but for e-books sales are up there, and i think that is happening. mike, do you have anything more recent on this? >> yes, what we are finding is in this crazy news cyclone where there are five or 10
stories a day, what we are finding is people like the opportunity to hit pause to see where we have been, where we are going. that is partly why it is top drawer with readers. one of the reasons it is one of the fastest e-books selling ever, is because viewers are immersed and interested. people also people want to catch up and are just tuning in. if you look back at previous cycles, previous races, you see when someone becomes the official nominee, there is a big swath of people who tune in who all of a sudden want to know about him. so this is a real advantage for mitt romney that he has something that none of us have in our everyday life, and that is a second chance to make a first impression. but it is also good if you run a political website or have a
political e-book, so that when people want to know about him, we are happy to help on i-tunes, kindle or the knook. guest: a couple of things. the insiders follow this, but a lot of people don't. fascinating to me that the democrats are doing some research. there is a school of thought that this campaign is going to be decided particularly by lower middle-class female voters in swing states, particularly in the midwest, ohio, pennsylvania. the whole campaign is going to turn on like 50,000 voters. so the democrats do some focus groups, and they showed some pictures of mitt romney. half the voters she shot pictures to didn't know who he was. we are following it, but the
country hasn't been following it. this is a chance to get in. we are so much in the moment now, so instantaneous, mike's playbook leading the way, that people love stories, and this is a pretty interesting story. this gives us a chance to step back and tell it as a story. this is pretty old to me. you can go back to odyssey. people just love stories, and the political campaign is an odyssey, and we tell it that way. even if you think you know it all, you would be surprised, going back and seeing what a story there is there. host: chicago is up there. you are on beverly. guest: good morning, how are you doing? i would like to get at your guest sitting in studio and then i want to get to mike allen, especially mike allen. this guy sitting in your studio is bragging about how good romney is, mr. fix it. but this man has been running five years to be president. yet every day he comes on with a different script. somebody has to tell him how to walk, talk, eat, sleep.
that is not a leader. why didn't he know all he had to do is work with the car company a little bit, that it needed some things, instead he said let it go bankrupt. how smart is that? he is such a business man. but i want to get to mike allen. i see you in the morning, and you tickle me. you come on like a giddy kid, can't wait to tell a joke or bad news about the president. i have never heard a lot about you guys until this president stepped foot on stage. he has created jobs for you all. you have talk shows, writing books, people becoming millionaires off the pack of this president. you all should want president obama to stay in office. without him, i don't know why you would be. you all have a beautiful day. guest: mike allen, you go first. >> thank you, beverly. you have a beautiful day, too.
thank you for your passion. i was interested in your point about the car companies because that unquestionably is going to be a huge issue. if you talk to the obama campaign folks, the health of the auto industry, especially michigan and ohio, even indiana, where the president won last time, unlikely to win this time, but they have a bunch of parts suppliers there. i believe it was the vice president who coined the line g.m. is alive. that is not a bad way to sum up the. 's record. guest: talking about romney, i said this earlier, but i think it bears repeating. in his campaign -- candidates turn into character. the negative ads do that for sure, and also we do it in the press. we make people into stick figures, as figures of read
cool, as kind of a joke. one of the things mike and i are trying to do is make them actual human beings, real people. so yes, romney is a terrible candidate, and you can argue about the substance of his policies. but he is a real person. and likally real people, he is neither entirely good or bad. he has strengths or weaknesses. my point is sometimes his strengths in all of this caricature gets overlooked. and we will treat president obama the same way, a human being with strengths and weavenesses. guest: one story was from the "washington journal" on how bill burton, a former white house staffer, now running a pack and not reaching his money goals. we asked them about pack moneys, especially the anticipated romney versus obama spending. what are the numbers?
guest: jack, that is a great question. subbanner packs are turning into a bigger story in that election than we may have expected. you mentioned priorities u.s.a. and priorities u.s.a. action, which was a kenyon martinic group started by bill burton and shawn sweeney. their mission was to be on the definitelyic side, what american crossroads and crossroads g.p.s. started on the republican side. the numbers are astounding. crossroads and crossroads g.p.s. it them plan to raise $ 240 million to $300 million. that won't all go into the presidential race. some will go into senate races. the democratic side would like to have that much. the "washington journal" talks
about -- the "wall street journal" talks about that. evan can put it in historical context, but money in a presidential campaign is mainly about organizing, certainly some tv advertising. in a presidential campaign, people know so much about the two indicates that it is unlikely to turn on money. what money can do is it can help you build an organization in a state that you might want to put in play or a state that might be in trouble. i don't think in the end we are going to say one of the guys lost because they didn't have hundreds of millions.
they expect to get money from unions. and above evan's view of this, and he can maybe put in a little historical context, but money in a presidential campaign helps mainly with organizing. certainly there's going to be a lot of tv advertising. but in a presidential campaign, so many people know so much about the two candidates that it's unlikely to turn on money. what money can do is it can help you build an organization in a state that you might want to put in play or a state in a might be in trouble. i don't think in the end we're going to say that one of these guys lost because he didn't have enough hundreds of millions. guest: i think that's right. we pay a lot of attention to money because the press likes the horserace and money is a measurement of horserace. but i would be surprise if money time around. i think these things, as mike said, people know who these people are. i guess i would put an asterisk on this because i don't know
about it. the campaigns have become very high tech about data mining and finding voters in order to turn them out. it's possible that that qub very expensive. it's -- it's quite possible that that can be very expensive. i am not so sure about that. money cancels each side out and each side has enough to get their message and their candidate across. host: elise on twitter reminds us, rick santorum, rush limbaugh. let's use her tweet to start with a new story. this is rick santorum talking about the contraception issue that he brought to the forefront. >> the whole concept of sexual liberation, sexual freedom has had its downside and certainly birth control is part of that with traumatic increase in -- dramatic increase in sexually diseases, dramatic increase in children out of wed lock, more abortions. it's a commentary that i, again, not something that is completely out of the mainstream. the bottom line is there are consequences to the sexual revolution that we are living with in america today. host: for our guests, this is a complex story to tell and our time is short. i am going to ask evan thomas, your book opens with this line about mitt romney's campaign and rick santorum. you said of romney campaign, they didn't see him coming. that's santorum. at least not in time. so tell us what's important about that story, evan thomas. guest: well, they are great at destroying your opposition by doing negative advertising. believe it or not, right before the iowa caucuses when they're
in their campaign room and they ask for the folder on santorum, there isn't one. the romney folks have not -- they just didn't take him seriously. he was that far behind in the polls, that unserious a candidate, they didn't bother to get this great oppo. they regretted that because he became chief rival and created a long campaign fleas been a problem for romney. host: mike allen, as rick santorum battled with mitt romney from state to state, how did that change the messaging of the campaign? guest: well, we saw that governor romney had to spend a lot more money and be a lot more negative in an he would have liked to. the romney campaign so far, in every big state, has won by being very negative and overwhelming force. you could call it the general colin powell strategy, the -- his war strategy of overwhelming force. that's how mitt romney has won. and the republicans who are saying that, ok, he did what he had to do but now we need a
vision from him, we need a big message for him. we need a reason for people to be excited about him, not for them just to be down on rick santorum or newt gingrich and that's a big challenge for the romney campaign in the coming weeks and months. there are several months until the convention at the end of august and they are going to have to come up with that positive message, with that big idea that people can rally around. host: i guess where we're going with the question, not just the mechanics of the campaign spending, but he didn't talk about the economy. did rick santorum change that focus? guest: there was conventional wisdom when the tea party came, we were going to get rid of social issues which was so important, abortion, get out of that and on with the economy. the thinking was that was what the campaign was going to be about. that was the hope of romney because he wanted to play mr. fix it.
the socialists have a way of coming back. people care deeply about them. it's a religious matter for people. they have a way of coming back and it came back somewhat improbably on the issue of contraception. an issue that had been legally resolved a long time ago and yet you had a big national debate about it. on the somewhat complex issue of whether insurance companies can be required to pay for contraception or whether there's some religious freedom there, so that was the battleground. it came back in a big way and santorum, of course, because he's a true believer and really sincere believer, got on this and drove it. host: mike allen, let me bring in this morning's news. the santorum campaign huddled, that's the verb, with conservative leaders yesterday with the big pennsylvania primary and four other states coming up on the 24th. what are the questions for the campaign and what might this meeting indicate? >> there were two meetings yesterday between them involving about 25 conservative leaders.
we were told it was all wings of the party, fiscal conservatives, social conservatives, tea party. there was one person meeting in virginia. not a lot of people could get there. there was a conference call with santorum. one of the big missions of the santorum campaign is try to get these conservative leaders to try to push newt gingrich to get out. the santorum campaign recognizes any hope they have is contingent not splitting conservative votes with newt gingrich. to answer your question very directly, the big challenge for the santorum campaign is to decide, do we go ahead, still try to win pennsylvania on april 24 where the polls are trending the wrong way for us? three polls all had rick santorum waning. important poll yesterday had mitt romney ahead. mitt romney is not taking his foot off the gas. "politico" reported yesterday
that he's opened an office in the harrisburg area which is the t, the center part of the state. rick santorum's home area, his strength is pittsburgh. mitt romney's folks believes he'll win because of the strength in philly and the philadelphia suburbs. the question is rick santorum going to risk a big loss, a big humiliation in his home state or is it possible that he'll pull the plug on his campaign before april 24 so he can avoid that? they say no way. monday he's hitting the trail again and his wife, karen, his oldest daughter, 20-year-old daughter, will be doing a separate tour of pennsylvania on their own to try to increase his firepower and really blanket his home state. caller: good morning, thank you. excellent reporter, to be aware who might be sucked in by small facts. during the civil war there was a dynamic.
people who were privileged sat on the front and with their picnic baskets watched the battle or the theater, as is often called. and what they found out during that process were -- was that the people who sat up on the hill actually saw and heard more. this is what is happening at this time. karen tummulty, excellent reporter, was called out by a c-span caller, a female who said don't give me small facts. i'm tired of your small facts. what we need now is women to get involved, to be the new process, which i call bicameralism. use this metaphor that the republicans have put out that caterpillar metaphor and start
the process that i would call the beginning of consciousness and the breakdown of the bicameral mind based on a title by julian james. get real. give us the service that we expect and we require of you. and stop feeding each other your small group, small facts out of your picnic basket of political nuggets. host: evan thomas. guest: i agree completely that we need both the forest and the trees. i think the civil war point is a fascinating -- small facts are facts. we are going to give you the tiles in the mosaic but also what you can do with an ebook like "inside the circus" is step back and see what those tiles are adding up. we don't have the whole wall. we are only at the chronologically halftime of the republican nominating process. we still have the conventions, the debates, the election so there's a lot more to see but we are going to give you small facts.
we are going to give you the tiles because that's the only honest way to add them up and see what the walls says or see what the forest is. i agree with you totally, we need to step back and see what's going on as well. guest: i can't improve on that. host: let me take a call there from massachusetts. ed, republican. good morning. caller: good morning and thank you for c-span. you know, this week the media was focusing on the huge gap that romney and the g.o.p. has with hispanic voters and the gap between women. the media is really missing a story that romney has a 100% gap with ron paul supporters. can mike allen or evan thomas explain to me how romney can chart a clear path to the white house without the votes of ron paul supporters? guest: ed, that is a brilliant point. it is the subject of very high level republican conversation in washington.
top republicans are very concerned about not alienating ron paul voters, especially the younger voters. what they say to me, those people shouldn't be obama voters. reasonldn't give them a to be. so ron paul has been treated with kid gloves by other reps. he's going to continue to be. there's a very fascinating alliance that we've learned about -- i shouldn't say alliance because that makes it sounds formal and it is not. there is a fascinating cinergy between the romney and ron paul campaigns. we've noticed and c-span has talked about it on the air the fact that ron paul does not attack romney in the debate and you noticed a little congruence
there. also we learned there is a real friendliness between the romneys and the pauls. mr. romney, mrs. paul often sit together at the debate. you see governor romney come out, greet mrs. paul. so i can imagine ron paul working out some sort of deal with the romney campaign for whether he needs planks at the convention, whether he'll get -- certainly get speaking time at the convention. but ed is totally right. the romney campaign is very focused on keeping ron paul voters in the tent and the way they're going to do it, to directly answer your question, is ron paul. they are going to need him out there talking to -- talking about mitt romney. in an interview for our first book, "the right fights back," ron paul told me that he thought that other people he was running against -- and there were eight of them, i think -- that mitt romney was the most qualified. he said that from the beginning. guest: big picture point back to the crowd watching the battle, i think a big theme of the romney campaign will be freedom. they're looking, they're
searching from some overarching vision. liberty and freedom is something that -- and the contrast they're going to try to draw is obama is all about, this is going to be a caricature, but socialism. i don't believe that. obama is all about big government and the republicans are about freedom. that's a message that should appeal to libertarians and that should help. host: last call. sharon. caller: hi, good morning. i just want to ask your guest. they speak about anything in their book about romney's five sons not serving in the military. that's one question i have. and also about the freedom rights of voting. seems like the republicans wants us to have an i.d. and that's going to be on the ballot in minnesota this fall. but at the same time it's wrong for obama to ask that people buy health insurance.
so to me they're one of the same. host: thanks so much. i ask evan thomas with the arc of time and watching this question about military service and candidates in general. as we've moved to the all- volunteer army, how important has this service question been for voters? guest: i think it's really interesting. i think it is important. and one of the sort of sad things in our society is that rich kids, upper middle class kids, some do go in the service but a lot of them don't and there's a disconnect between the military fighting our wars and privileged kids going to privileged schools who don't. you know, you look at the numbers going into rotc it's a tiny number. i don't blame the romney kids for doing this. apparently it's a nice family.
they seem like great kids to me. there's a larger point here that well-to-do kids by and large don't go not service. host: i want to close with a contemporary issue. this week the white house and the president's statements about the supreme court and the review of health care. here's "usa today" with a headline "other presidents took on health care before obama." how will the supreme court's final decision only the health care law be to the fall campaign? guest: it's a great question. unquestionably will reset the table. we can't predict how it's going to unfold. you know, there's a lot of buzz. there's a school of thought that if the health care reform is overturned in whole or in part that this will help the president because it will help motivate his liberal base which has been disappointed with him on some issues. i can tell you that's not how
the white house views it. they say 100-1 they'd much rather have be upheld. it's an important part of his legacy. this president wants to be known for what he's done, not just who he is, and also he's a constitutional lawyer. he doesn't want to have a key -- a key provision overturned. in a is why we saw these remarks this week from the president and others trying to work the reps a little bit, trying to make the argument that the court will be seen as political if it overturns it. now, i'm not sure how much good this did each day we saw the white house walking back a little bit. if it's overturned in july there will be plenty of time to say why. you don't want to alienate the court right now, but -- so i think you're going to hear the president from now on be a little more measured in what he says in sticking with his top point which is where he started, that he thinks it will be upheld, and leave it to others to say that the court would be politicizing itself. host: it is just after 8:30 and we have been waiting for the march unemployment numbers. we don't have time to ask our guests' reaction.
here's what the numbers say. the economy added 120,000 jobs in march. unemployment has dropped .1% from 8.3% to 8.2%. let it stand as a fact to that caller who wanted a big picture. thank you to evan thomas and mike allen. if we wetted people's interest, you can mention how you can get the book. tell us again and how much it costs? guest: thank you so much for having us on. it's $2.99. it's a great bargain. that's the great thing about this ebook format. it's so economical. it's so late breaking. we added things up until one week before it went in the itunes store and you can get it in the itunes store for ipad,
iphone, itouch. and you can get it in the kindle and nook. check out "inside the circus." we are so grateful for the excitement around it and thank you, c-span, for your interest in this and your amazing coverage throughout this election season. host: be careful about the offer. might have people -- guest: thank you. host: evan thomas here in washington, d.c. nice to see you again. guest: thank you, susan. host: well, in our two final -- >> tonight on c-span, why reporters keep going back to the war zones. >> some of these guys have a little bit of a reverse personality. when things are really good,
they can be unmanageable. when things are really, really bad, they are called calm. it sounds really amazing. i am not saying they do not feel fear. they do. if they tell you they do not, they are lying. they manage it and channel it. then they get back and have to wait two days for a helicopter and they are bouncing off of the walls of the tent. when they are out there in the middle of it -- i work side-by- side with photographers because i do not cover the capitals. i work from the field. when you are out there, in its own way, it is self organizing. you can leave it behind. you are not in those sorts of situations when you are at home. when you are at home, you get stuck in traffic. you are just a guy stuck in
traffic. it is not so bad. >> after that, see a tribute to barbara mikulski. she became the longest serving woman in the history of the u.s. congress. >> i am is still a fighter and still and reformer. i am is still the young girl in that blue jumper. i am still that person who wants to light one little candle and curse the darkness. i will continue to work with each of you in this room. you are here because you make a difference. maybe force be with us. -- may the force be with us. [applause] >> and a tribute to two former senators. >> it was a great honor and a
genuine privilege to serve with each of you and to learn from each of you. i know you wish i had learned more, bob. quite frankly, to simply low -- know you both. it is all tonight starting at 8:00 p.m. eastern on c-span. >> tonight on c-span 2, it is book tv in prime time. events from the 2012 savannah book festival. the personal chronicle of the u.s. army's first blind active duty officer. and the look at the israeli- palestinian conflict. after that, a look at the rise of the comanches, the most
powerful indian tribe in american history -- american history. all tonight on c-span 2. >> we ask students to submit a video telling us what part of the constitution was most important with them and why. we will be speaking with noah fatsi. good morning. the topic of your video was on the right to bear arms. how did you choose the right to bear arms? >> my group wanted to choose a topic that affected a lot of people in america. we figured the right to bear arms was a part of the constitution that affected everyone in the united states. if you do not own guns, most likely somebody near you all the guns for protection. there are hunters and gun
collectors. we figured this was a topic that affected a lot of people and was probably important to a lot of them. >> you asked in the second amendment was an unnecessary right. what did you mean by that? >> we wondered if the first -- the second amendment was necessary in society today or maybe just the right to have guns is necessary. >> can you explain the difference between the original intent and been -- and how it is read? >> the founding fathers were a role in writing the constitution for good reasons. the reason the right to bear arms was there was because they wanted the citizens to have a
chance in case the government they put in place became too oppressive or corrupt. they wanted the citizens to have a chance to be able to overthrow a corrupt or oppressive government. without guns, we would still probably be a county of england and we would never have been able to defeat the british army and create our own freedom. >> you interviewed two virginia tech students. how did they help you understand the issue? >> it is one thing reading about shootings on the internet and on the news. actually talking to two people directly affected by a shooting feels a lot closer to the issue. they told us that they had to be locked in the cafeteria and they were not allowed to come out
until the campus was determined to be saved. they were really close to an issue that has to do with the second amendment and the right to bear arms. >> did your research affect your decision -- your opinion? >> any opinion i make, i should be while import and educated. >> what was your -- i should be well informed and educated. >> what was your favorite part of making this video? >> getting the opinions of the virginia tech students and trying to figure out my own opinions with the other members of my group and seeing what they thought about it and what we thought about the second amendment. >> thanks for talking to us this morning and congratulations on your win. here is a portion of noah's
video, the rights to bear arms. >> to disarm the people is the best and most effective way to insulate them. >> the best way to help the people at large is for them to be properly armed. >> an armed man is a defender. a disarmed and is a subject. -- man is a subject. >> the carnegie endowment for international peace hosted a summit. we will hear remarks from representatives of tunisia.
it is two hours. >> it is my great pleasure to welcome you to what is going to be a wonderful event. we have the fortitude to bring together leaders from five countries along with hundreds of members of the washington policy community for some sharing of understanding and questions that have not happened before. 16 months ago, a gathering of this sort would have been unthinkable.
mubarak, gaddafi, salah were still in power. today, many arab countries are in transition and parties are an important part of this historic process of change. in tunisia, morocco, egypt, parties have one bank substantial victories and -- have won substantial victories. similar results are expected in libya and jordan later this year. the rise of these parties is a political reality. the decisions they make will powerfully shaped the --'s future four years and four years to come -- shape the region's future for years to come.
many leaders have never served in the government and have had limited contact with the west. their arrival to power has provoked a great deal of uncertainty and trepidation among policy makers. they replace autocrats' that were repressive or at least known quantities. -- autocrats that worked repressive or at least known quantities. -- were repressive or at least known quantities. our hope for today is for candor and a pointed exchange of views. we invite everyone to listen carefully and to ask tough questions. the arab world faces major challenges. after decades of repression and stagnation -- which is thomas
powers place to -- with islamist leaders poised to take power, we have questions. will parties respect the outcome of future eductions no matter who wins. what do islamist parties plan to do to spur growth? what sort of business environments do they plan to create? our panel will address each of these questions and more. they are meant to provide emerging leaders a chance to share their views with an expert audience. it wants to provide policy makers in the west with a chance to listen and ask probing questions. at carnegie, we are both proud
to be able to host this event and uniquely equipped to have done so. we operate one of the era of -- .rab's leading think tanks -- arab \ \ world's leading -- arab world's leading think tanks. when we launched the carnegie global vision six years ago to create the world also first global think tank, we did so with a decision to connect a global audience with local expertise, local voices from the world's most critical regions. that is precisely what we are doing here today. i want to thank a few people and individuals who made the day
possible. marwan muasher from the carnegie staff who has worked on untold hours to pull this event together and the open society institute, which has made today's conference possible with their generous financial support. the carnegie endowment is deeply grateful. most importantly, i want to thank all of you for joining us. a day like this depends on those who have traveled great distances to join us. we are particularly grateful to them. we are delighted to have you here for what we think will be an important day. it is my pleasure to turn the floor over to the head of our
middle east progress, marwan muasher, who is moderating this first panel. welcome and enjoy your day. [applause] >> thank you, jessica. before we start, let's take care of some administrative or logistic issues. i would like to remind everyone to have their cell phones off and to use your translation machines. you have to turn to 6 for english and 8 or arabic. we are starting the first session -- 8 for arabic. we are starting with building the uprising. we are starting with egypt and tunisia.
two others are trying to put in place the process of reform in order to avoid transitions such as what happened in tunisia and egypt and put in place a reform process -- or rocco and jordan. we will hear from all of them. included with you. let me briefly introduce mustapha elkhalfi, from the moroccan government. to my immediate left is dr. abdul mawgoud dardery, from the freedom and justice party in egypt. to my far left is sahbi atig, from tunis.
many questions are on everybody's mind. as we go through these transitions, the question of the peaceful transition of power, personal rights, the constitutional writing process, which will be done by consensus or by a majority. a civil religious state and how will either look? islamist parties that are coming up. what do they look like? what does an islamist state look like? what do islam as principals in government me? what -- would sharia laws be imposed on all citizens? our citizens -- are citizens
allowed to change their minds? these questions and more are on everybody's mind. s are being held to a high standard as they are winning in all arab countries. these questions also need to be asked from secular parties as well as its islamist parties. commitment to pluralism is something that we would hope would be a trait of all parties in the arab world. what i thought we would do is start with countries that have undergone transitions. we start with tunisia, because it was the first. we moved to egypt to see what experiences the dishes have. we talk about morocco and
jordan, two marquees that have not undergone transitions -- we have moved to egypt to see what experiences they have. we will limit your comments to no more than 7-15 minutes. many people in the audience are interested in hearing your use. -- hearing your of the use -- europe use -- your views. i will ask about the transition in the it. do you feel a pluralistic society is put in place? how do you feel about the transition going on in the tunisian so far -- in tunisia so far?
>> i thank the carnegie endowment institute for this invitation and for their efforts in conducting this dialogue. the islamic tide is rising in the arab world. we are discussing be a islamic performance in the field of individual freedom and pluralism and the freedom of belief and expression. these are a number of fundamental, basic issues that have to be clarified to everybody so that we are able to draft or to establish a true democratic system and to find a society that is deep rooted in freedom. these islamic/arab parties know
the relationship between islam bell use and modern values -- between the islamic values and the modern values. the revolution was not violent. the first thing was the transformation by violence. they also dropped the concept of fear from dictatorship. also met this of change by violence. in addition to this peaceful and civilized message, we were quickly able to organize free elections that were transparent and fair for the first time in the arab world. when i say that, i mean it was
the first time elections were held to express the will of the people through the ballot boxes without any forgery of the will of the people. it was a peaceful revolution. free, democratic, transparent elections. we were able to build a regime or a system that is the beginning of constitutionality. the assembly now includes all parties in the society, political parties, islamist, liberals, a leftist, national list. that is pluralism. an assembly that reflects the reality of tunisian society and the reality of the political parties. in a short amount of time, we were able to draft a
constitution. then an interim regulation to govern tunisia for 3 years so we can build a democratic system based on freedom and democracy. we have elected the chairman of the assembly and the president. we form a government. most importantly about this government is it is a national coalition that combines the movement and the grouping party, which is also the republican party, which is a liberal party. this combination combines is lummis and leftists and liberals and nationalists in one government. this is a development of strength.
we have undid the will of one party just as we undid the dictatorship. we are drafting a new constitution. now we formed constitutional -- constitutional committees. we have legislative branches and committees to start thinking about the regional governments. we are in the constitutional framework. we work on reconciliation and a national agreement. we see that this constitution represents all to new regions and all people with the goals of
the revolution in tunisia. the method in which we will draft this constitution is by consensus, to care for expanding consensus among the people by all parties, particularly from another movement. we have the majority. it is a proportionate representation in proportion to the size of the different parties represented. the committees and the parties are represented greatly. we care to build basic things in the constitution. that is the islamic nature of the state in tunisia. this means the agreement of all parties.
islam will be the main foundation. the main thing is to guarantee individual freedoms. there is discussion about the type of regime, whether it will be a republican system or a different system or whether there should be a constitutional court that will monitor the application of all laws enacted. we are careful to have a higher committee that will oversee all the elections. it will not be of greater dominance been the head committee. there will be a committee to oversee the information sector. there will also be the watchdog to maintain neutrality of the
judicial system. we will have an independent commission that will organize the information then the media in tunisia. there will be a guarantee that dictatorship will never come back to tunisia. this is a great gain in tunisia. there is a commission for personnel sax's, in which the woman in tunisia had gained -- the women in tunisia have gained a lot. the revolution was built on the shoulders of young people and women. it is an islamic game. we adopt a civil states, a
republican regime, a democratic system. our the vision is to conduct a dialogue in the state and in society. we envision this as democrat dick -- a democratic message not different -- there is no difference between democracy and islam. perhaps we can deep root the market within islam in a sound manner. -- the group democracy within islam in a sound manner -- deep root democracy in islam in a sound manner. what was gained by the human mind in the modern society that
emanated from outside the arab- islamic domain. there is agreement between islam and all of these points. within islam, to respect the rights of minorities, christians, the jewish minorities are small, but they are accepted within the society. we do not have sectarian strife. other minority religious groups enjoy their rights as everybody else. we are careful in the movement to respect individual and public freedoms, to respect the freedoms of women and the rights
of minorities. all parties agree on the value of citizenship based on the founding act of islam. this concerns us in europe. recently, we have represented the idea of building the constitution based on sharia law. legal reference for the constitution would be the islamic sharia. there is another project that talks about tunisia needing to beat an independent free country because it has been languishing.
this is a political division. there is no need. there was a great discussion in to déjà. -- in tunisia sure it -- in tunisia. there was a demand to include sharia law. there was another movement to consider that this would divide society. sharia law is kind of confusing and not understood. they up a toll-free number and the main ideas of religion, which is to maintain -- they all hold the idea of freedom of religion, which is to maintain
religion. freedom and justice are fundamental pillars of islam. there was one scholar who wrote about sharia and he stated that syria and democracy are fundamental things. -- syria and democracy are fundamental things. -- sharia and democracy are fundamental things. polygamy is looked upon as are unjust. we decided to postpone the issue of sharia in the first pages that were accepted by all of the parties.
we have bypassed this debate. we would be supplies in the first chapter to exclude serbia as a fundamental issue. -- exclude sharia as a fundamental issue. there are common denominators. there are many in the republican system. whether it is the relationship between the -- the guarantee of women's rights. we adopted things and accepted them. also freedom of the press and the media. these are things the movement has seized, how they can build
the constitution. they can build you a republican system based on the neutrality of that situation and the freedom of belief and expression and coercion. -- freedom of belief and expression. cores and should not be -- coercion should not be tolerated. there are also other challenges in which ba governing -- in which the governing base is looking at. the government submitted a huge program that includes political
and security aspects. these have been prior to is in the society. employment is a top priority so that we would have to support and enhance domestic and foreign investments. the previous regime had created a chasm between different parts of the society. 80% of growth was along the coastal lines. the interior had minimal growth. the government has changed this equation by being more active in provincial development. it is more balanced. security and safety will be in the hands also. provisional justice is a big
challenge. how can we carry on reconciliation and accountability. in this period, we have adopted a law we have discussed. we talk about a number of issues, such as reconciliation and of the things that would be important. nobody should be above the law. this is the group of challenges we face. in the political arena, how can we manage by consisted -- by consensus and dialogue? how can we combine all of the different parties. we believe what happened in tunisia has been good so far.
the army in tunisia has played a positive role in the days of the revolution. the army could have taken charge of the country. they supported the revolution and protected the people from the security forces. they worked on protecting and safeguarding the election so they would be free of fraud. dialogue's now with the ship of the army and the government. we believe the army -- dialogue s now with the army and the government. we believe the army dealt positively. we want to build a civil state.
that will not be sacred. a ruler would not be getting his sanctity from an unseen power, but from the people for taking care of the people's interests. it will not be a democratic or military state. it will be a civil society. these are the issues that ipad the best that i have tried to briefly mentioned to you. -- issues that i have tried to briefly mentioned to you. [applause]
>> thank you for this presentation of what is going on in tunis. talk about some key concepts that i think many people would like to hear in this audience and beyond. you talked about a pluralistic constituency and a consensus writing the constitution rather than a majority. syria and not being the only source of legislation -- sharia not being the only source of legislation. all of these are important concepts as we build a new state in tunisia. how do we compare this to what is going on in egypt? egypt is facing some difficulties in forming a constituency. yesterday, the muslim government
also presidential candidate declared that implementing sharia remains his number one objective. how do you match that against what we heard from tunisia and what your own program is in egypt? >> in the name of god, the merciful, -- [speaking in arabic] >> before i talk about the implications of the evolution
that took place in egypt, to make it clear to the american audience and others, the story of egypt will not start in january. it started almost 200 years ago when the french lost a battle in pennsylvania and they wanted to punish the british, so they had to occupy egypt. [laughter] we came to suffer because of a european conflict on the american soil. that is what we are able to make up what we talk about today. we came with the european understanding of the relationship between different powers of the state. all of the sudden, it is a totally different country. what do we do with them. do we colonize their minds or their bodies? on fortunately, the decision of
trying to come to a common understanding. the second on the other extreme, it has nothing to do with europe. the third alternative, the freedom and justice party represented, the tradition needs to be respected. at the same time, we cannot ignore the european development. europe came out of the dark ages. and take from what we need. since then, the problem --
the ideas that keep the system going. after the system collapsed, there was a referendum. deciding a road map, what do we do? there were discussions. do we make the presidency first, do we do the election's first? what -- a lot of ideas. for the egyptian people. the egyptians decided to go with the road map as follows. election for the people, right in the constitution -- right in the constitution, and then the president.
-- writing the constitution, and then the president. unfortunately, and i mean it, it took us longer than expected. we could have done this process in shorter time. for those who would like to think of why it took too long, there was an understanding and that was part of the dictatorial understanding. if we give them a long time, maybe they will forget about the revolution. this is not going to be the case anymore. egyptians are determined to live in a freedom that -- free democratic rule of law. i was a university teacher.
my lectures were recorded by some of my students. and send to the police to be analyzed. they complained to the president of months university. they said, he is problematic for us. the present ask them, why do you think he is from the muslim brotherhood? you can imagine the suffering of the egyptians. i agree with the soviet egyptians and with attorneys and experience -- i believe with so
many egyptians and with the tunisian experience. many egyptians would like to live free even if we become hungry. do what you have to do, but we will wait for the reform. living in a free society after years of oppression is very problematic. i did not think it would be that difficult. everywhere you go, people question you, why did you do that? that requires a lot of preparation. the roadmap went as follows. the free elections, a free and fair elections that produced more than 20 different parties
and the egyptian parliament. the freedom and justice party got 40% of the votes. to control all the committees, the same as you do in the congress. 51% gives you the chance to control all the committees. the egyptian experience, we really wanted the participation of each and every one. not each and every party, but each and every egyptian. we wanted representatives from each party. manyr the parliament' -- different parties consisted. the freedom and justice party got more than 50% of the vote.
we did not think of it as a majority of versus minority. coming out of a precedent, it requires -- coming out of oppression, it requires the ideas of each and everyone. this balance between honoring our own culture and interacting with the european and american alternatives. the egyptian alternative. we are moving into writing the constitution. this constitution does not belong to the majority because it cannot.
the majority controls the parliament. that is fine. it can leave the government after a few years. the constitution goes on there than that. it affects the future generations of egypt. i was there when the formation of the committee, at the referendum we voted down on march 19 give the people the right to elect representatives of egyptian society. there were many options. it was open for us. we listened to everyone. we came to a discussion.
a 50-50 arrangement. it was a great moment in egyptian history. i was there and i thought, this is an historic moment in egypt. we agreed together as the representatives of egypt listened -- representatives of egypt, really listens. to my surprise, some liberal did not wait until the first meeting of the constitutional committee so that we can but the alternatives on paper. less than 24 hours.
all of egypt asked the the person -- the people elected you to represent them and write the constitution. that created a lot of confusion. i would be happy to discuss that with you. after the election, we thought the military council in egypt is going to give the majority party the right to form the government. the only representative body in egypt is the people's assembly. the military council -- helping the democratic process to move forward. to our surprise -- our constituencies kept bombarding us, we elected you, nothing
changes. where do we go from here? the majority party is have come together to form a government. to the surprise of everyone, there was a majority of egyptians, the military council refused to give the majority parties the right to form the government. and then we heard the stories of the parliament. it was based on illegal procedures. the presidential committee -- being questioned after declaring the results of the election. that scared most of the people
working for democracy in egypt. that is one reason why freedom and justice party is an alternative to protect the democratic approach and bring the proper results to the egyptian people. finally comes the presidency, major changes to happen in egypt of the next couple of months. it will determine how the egyptian society -- in all other affairs. we do not have minorities in egypt. they are full citizens, they have the same rights. that is the egyptian way of
looking at it. on behalf of the freedom and justice party, a balanced way of creating -- between a parliamentarian system and date presidential system. we would like the parliament to be able to form a government. it was never that. we never thought of our leaders as divine. imposing it on egypt is unfair. we also believe -- we are a
little different from the tunisian experience. we are discussing another level of discourse. we're not interested in that. we would like to but islamist principles -- what does it mean? we look at what we call -- what is the implication of the sharia? that means democracy, freedom, the rule of law. that means the basic universal principles everywhere in the
corner of this earth. i still have one minute. other challenges, there are many challenges. the military council is a challenge. the military -- we would like to avoid military conflict phenomenon. we liked -- have any military is like having a theocracy in a secular form. once we are settled with the parliament, the presidency, we need to be able to change the
culture into a culture of freedom. all of us can agree and disagree. we need to be able to honor our human dignity, respect our differences, because we believe that these two principles are indispensable conditions for egyptian peace, for national peace, and for world peace. thank you. [applause] >> ok. we moved to the two monarchies. yesterday, i was talking and he said -- not the revolution's going on.
we would like to keep the monarchy, but within the monarchy, we are trying to put in place a process. to hear about the moroccan experience, what is your end game? what is the future of morocco? what is your take on this? >> let me thank you for this invitation. it is working in morocco. you are succeeding in implementing -- between evolution and the old system of political control. -- revolution and the old system of political control.
crucial. we are moving towards a generation of political reform. at the beginning, morocco, like all countries in the region. part of political parties. given to the streets asking for fighting for corrupt -- fighting corruption. the king decided to react. there was the march night speech when the king decided to authenticate -- provide new
policies that deal with political issues. like the issue of good governance and accountability with responsibility. dealing with the issue of having an elected government. at the beginning, there was a skeptical view. this would be limited reform. we are not gone to see real changes. -- we are not going to see real changes. after we published a constitutional commission, and in july, the moroccan people approved the new constitution.
this was the first test of the march night speech. recognizing that our identity -- we succeed in drafting a bill of rights about all major rights. we succeeded in defining the main element and mission related to what is called good governance, transparency, role of law -- rule of law. the second step was the
100 days after the nomination of the new government in 2012. from february 2011, until now, it was a long process, but morocco is moving. towards a genuine democracy. i think three factors explain the moroccan exception. the first factor, as i mentioned earlier, role of the monarch. the marketplace the role of --
the monarchies plays the role of an actor that has unified the country. the ability to make -- unify the country, new interpretations of religion, the marquee played a crucial role in preserving -- the monarchies of played a crucial role. even after the collapse of the soviet union, accelerating the process of conversion -- emersion the democratic
transition. now, the marquee -- monarchies is playing a third row. moving the country towards more democratic reform. the existence of civil society. almost 50,000 of the association are working in morocco. religious association, working in society. they are creating a mediation between the state and society.
embracing the ideas of political reform and and a culture of citizenship within the society. the civil society has played the role since the beginning in morocco. placing the country towards political and social reform. as of now, there have been great roles in the process of the constitution. the civil society has been defined by the immersion. society is so young. many problems, illiteracy, poverty, related to corruption
i think now, one of the elements that helps accelerate the process of the implementation of the new constitution is the culture of integration. the culture of working together between all groups. the culture that helps us in establishing a strong coalition. what are the main challenges of the future? >> you have five minutes. >> the first is the implementation of the new constitution.
the challenges of the arab spring, the collapse of the regime. the roadmap that helps us is the new constitution. the new constitution is not only -- we use it for public diplomacy and public relations, no. the new constitution is the ingredients of reshaping the relationship the judiciary branch. reshaping our system of government. we have only five years. the new constitution says to us we should adopt laws that will
implement the new constitution. for example, freedom of press. the new constitution, freedom of expression. so weak it -- so we should change the press code. the government should encourage the emergence of independent democratic expression. we should stop intervening in all matters related to the organization of the media. having a real independent and professional and responsible media in our country. this is one of the goals and objectives of the new constitution.
of the biggest problems we suffer from is the spread of corruption. the new constitution clearly addresses this problem. the moroccan policies -- are ranking was 85. into a dozen to, 53 did 2002, 52. it is a big problem for us. we cannot escape from this reality. we have to present critical to deal with it. not only this institution that
fight corruption. enhancing the political participation, economic participation of the women. one of the problems we are facing is that we have very limited participation of women. a system of affirmative action to enhance the political participation of women. we are working to develop new policies. the first challenge is the implementation of the new constitution. the second challenge is working
to have a real system. in the past, we had limited power. now we are working to develop political, economic, social. this will be a series of transitions. allowing people in the region to manage their affairs. the third challenge we are facing is providing the new and answers to the economic and social problems. -- a genuine answers to the academic and social problems. people understand the link between the social economic problems.
health problems, housing problems, educational problems. we have debated in the parliament -- the financial tools for the poor people for health and education. this is one of the biggest challenges. poverty, illiteracy, housing services. the fourth challenge -- the new political environment that is emerging in their region.
the situation in jordan is very similar to what is happening in morocco, but unique. the common factor is that they do not have blood on their hands. this is why both bridge games decided to institute reforms -- regimes decided to institute reforms. in jordan, there is the problem of corruption. jordan has high levels of education, which are very similar to western nations. we have a budget deficit that exceeds 65% of total gnp.
there are positive aspects in favor of the regime in jordan, but over the last 10 years, several of these achievements were destroyed. reforming jordan started not just with the arab spring, but there were previous years and which the muslim brotherhood took part in political process. it had a difficult experience. the small elections in 2007, which is why we decided to boycott. it produced parliament that did not represent the people. not in terms of the political
framework. that could possibly shoulder its responsibilities. unfortunately, i would like to say that the regime in jordan, even though we are reforming the regime, the king and the government and parliament and institutions are still stalling when it comes to reform. that is what the regime in jordan is attempting, in spite of a lot of loud voices, protest until now continuing in jordan. next to syria, jordan is the second arab country where protests are still active. calls for reforms are reflected
in marches and demonstrations to retain the rights. because the constitution stipulates that the people are the source of legislation. article 25 of the constitution limits all of the popular authorities. the ministers are the ministers of the king. so are the military forces. the king has the right to dissolve parliament and to sack ministers and can make decisions to go to war separately. therefore, the reform movement in egypt is an attempt to reform the constitution to restore to the people its rights.
the people are no longer are the force of legislation. we would say that we are -- it is a dilemma that permeates the the political system. the regime itself is not serious about the reforms. they respond to some of the pressure on the streets. the general state of unrest in the region, that is why there is a continuous attempt to absolve the reform movement and overpower it. the king brought a government
who was involved in the biggest election fraud to in 1997. in 2007, he was involved in a scandal. and yet, this prime minister was brought back to lead the reform movement. people refused his government and reforms in a proposed. another government was brought to power. this government was robbed of any power. even though it is left by an international judge. he promised to reform the elections law. the government continues to
isolate parliament and refuses to recognize its powers. or that would lead to any political competition that would put an end to corruption. therefore, this is a very important issue for us in jordan and we hope the jordanian people will continue to pressure the political system so that it can institute real changes. so the king would also be a direct source of power, would hold his responsibilities towards the people. a source of unity for all forces. but we insist that king should
be part of the efforts to solve the problem in jordan. some say he is part of the problem in jordan. many of them tried to circumvent the reforms. we are not very different from other arab countries. we would like to have a constitution and political pluralism. and god almighty, who has sent this religion to us, did not witness anything in its history that it has called a religious oppression. are christian brothers continued to live among us in social harmony. we do not say, this person is
kristin, this person is muslim. -- christian, this person is muslim. the islamic movement has also elected a christian and a representative. we also have witnessed over 20 years since the formation of parties in 1990, we have seen several coalitions that have overcome their religious and ideological differences among the parties. we also -- the islamic brothers have also stood by all laws that called for freedom and pluralism.
unfortunately, some of these issues have not been met with -- dealt with so far. including some very and portents print -- some very important procedural changes. for example, in the constitution, to have military tribunals that would put people to trial on the accusation of harming the reputation of the state, this is being done by the state security court, even to this day. these accusations are so commonplace and there is intervention and control by the intelligence.
the army is very peaceful, as far as the political aspect is concerned. unfortunately, the general intelligence service is still of authoritarian and continues to play this role. in terms of strangulation and oppression against people. jordan continues to suffer from targeting. even a person like myself, when i traveled to such a place, i am being subjected to interrogation. but we would like to achieve in jordan -- what we would like to achieve in jordan is to achieve stability in the country and restore the powers of the people and establish an electoral law that guarantees the rights of jordanians.
some of you are not aware of the characteristics of jordanian society. some jordanians come from west of the river jordan. they came to jordan after the israeli occupation. these constituents, half the population, and they're being used. we believe that all jordanians have overcome this problem. another issue of being used to threaten people is to raise the specter of the islamic movement. this movement has major contributions to the history of jordan. and also in other countries. and has made several sacrifices. what we seek to achieve is to
hold elections. the peaceful transition of power. the islamic movement is the only -- even when in -- women and the islamic brotherhood are being elected to leadership positions. this is not a language we use in jordan. we do not hear about the problem of women participation in jordan. it is not appropriate for jordanians to pay the price -- jordanians feel shame that the
heads of the intelligence service appointed by the king. the highest authority in jordan, it to be tried on fraud charges. this is a major problem unchallenged. it affects the integrity of the governance. with respect to the jordanian economy, it suffers from imbalances. we have a deficit, and this is equally dangerous and serious because it shakes the foundations of the values and the way in which the government supports its own citizens. enforces people -- in return for the subsidies that the
government provides to the people. this is also a challenge that we would like to address. if there were free elections and fair elections, this would be an issue that would be addressed. we also believe that if such elections were held, and we will make the same gains that our brothers in neighboring countries have made. we believe this is a right that will be realized no matter what. if the elections were to be held according to a fair system, we are not seeking a law that favors us, but we would like to see a fair election law.
one last problem, the arab- israeli conflict and the use in the internal politics of jordan. it is being used as one of the justifications for the regime in instituting the reforms -- to stall in instituting the reforms. usually, it has always been deferred to such time as the arab-israeli conflict is salt. -- solved. it is not justification for the deferral of reform in jordan. . like to say that -- we would like to say that the decision makers in the west, that is not
the case, thank you. [applause] thank you very much. i will take three or four questions. i am sure there are a lot of them. please make it a very short question because we do not have time. can you wait for the microphone? >> i am from morocco. i work with the world bank. in the united states, the economy plays a major role in the elections. do you think the performance will be determined mostly on the progress that he would be able
also, your leadership has called, in the past, for a guardian council that would oversee all parliamentary laws and make sure they were in alignment with sharia. what i want to know is, now that freedom and justice is the leading party, do they stand by what you said or are they closer to what your president candidates said? >> i am from nigeria. in the election of 1991 after the algerian spring, it was stopped by the military and the security. that was my next question. the one from tunisia and egypt.
what followed was violence. how will you see the future? and it was a wonderful experiment, but we are worried about the future. >> one more question, maybe. yes? >> i am for the study -- the center for the study of islam and democracy. it is amazing today to have all of you here in washington and to witness what is going on in the arab world, finally. mike two questions are from -- are for dr. dardery from egypt. will the new government aligned with the islam or with the separatist party? who will they align with?
>> the government has put this issue as the second goal. the main problem in our country is the lack of good government. we presented almost 25 million related to enhancing the climate of investment in the country. we succeeded. three weeks ago, there was a partnership between the private sector and the government. hughes reforms in the investment environment, in the financial and legislative institutional
aid of the government in -- huge reforms in the investment environment, in the financial and legislative, institutional aid of the government. the environment we have with many countries like the united states and to launch investments on this level. we are working with small business companies in the country. we think the driving force of fighting poverty and employment is to invest in small business. companies in our country have lots of projects on this level based on managers' working with them, reforming the educational
system in order to create some -- based on managers working with them, reforming the education system in order to crate -- create opportunity for the private sector. the second part of the question, i think one of the things that creates instability -- creates stability with the moroccan people is that we drafted the constitution. the constitution has determined our relationship between different centers of power. it has established that this is important. as long as the institutional tools and the operation between
monarchy and the government -- after the election, we succeeded in implementing this and we have a successful corporation for 4 months. this is based on the constitution. it is based on nonviolence and trust. we have succeeded since the 1990's. we are working in the political arena and participating in elections. for that reason, as political parties, we decided in the 1997 election and the 2002 election to limit our participation. the goal is that we should enhance the confidence between us and the political elite.
otherwise, we are going to repeat the experience is that other countries have seen. we should be careful in building this confidence because it is the essence of the implementation of the constitution. the third question -- >> please. we do not have time. i will ask everybody to ask one question only and limit the answers to one question. >> we are suffering from the old lots -- laws in the new constitution era. many new laws have been drafted. for example, the extent -- the establishment of a democratic council.
we agree with the journalist unions about new laws on this level. this is why i said that the first democrat dick -- democratic step is the form of the the best formation of the -- the formation of the new constitution. >> thank you for asking this question. thank you for the statement you made at the end of your question. sometimes i think of it. i was invited to california to speak about islamic americans. i posted this me by saying, we are happy to have a moderate muslim. i asked him, -- my host
introduced me by saying, we are happy to have a moderate muslim. i asked him, why did you introduce me as a muslim muslim -- as a moderate muslim? he said, we never hear about muslims who are moderate. that is the platform i ran for election for. this is our understanding of islam. the two issues that you mentioned -- we are trying to move from being an opposition into people in power. when you are in chains, have re a chained mentality.
why don't you have a court that can decide these things. i strongly encourage a dialogue around this. i would like to encourage the moslem among you -- muslims among you to engage in a dialogue so we can come to an understanding of sharia. there is no translation into english. the definition is, a legal blog. -- legal law. it has been there for 1400 years. it has succeeded in producing great civilizations. sometimes it fades. it is the human experience of
understanding a divine being. sometimes it does not produce a better thing. take jihad out of the arab world and give it the english translation. i am do g.i. sitting here. this is an intellectual -- i am doing the high sitting here. --g. hi sit-in here -- jihad sitting here. this is an intellectual jihad. it is an intellectual journey toward the universe, toward other people. concerning the liberals, we look
at it differently. we do not look at it, this bursas this. it is not a black and white thing. -- we cannot look at it as, at this versus this. we will work with the liberals. if we can agree with the new party, we will work with them. we are trying to create something. >> a question from the brother from algeria. with respect to the military society and civil society, in tunisia, the military plays a national role in defending democracy and taking part in development. and also preserving the
territorial integrity of tunisian. the military has no role to play in politics. the military and the security forces do not even take part in elections. they cannot be candidates in elections and can not vote. -- cannot vote. like all civil societies, we have a ministry of defence. they cannot play a role. their role is limited to the security aspect. they cannot run for reelection. they cannot all tech. this is what happens in civil societies in the free world. you suffered from a military coup, for example. that is what happened in algeria. the military was a big problem. i believe, in egypt, the
military institution is a problem. the military continues to exist and there will be no revolution in egypt. if it continues to be as powerful, the military would not have succeeded. as for the bread lines for us in tunisia, the red -- as for the red lines for us in tunisia, they are for nonviolence. anyone who engages in violence, they are a red line. the law is for everyone. and torture, for example. the physical rights and integrity of the human being is important. we receive reports -- we received reports after the revolution that there was physical abuse. the government opened an
investigation into this matter. the results will be implemented on both parties. the head of government was clear, any person who engages in torture will be held accountable. there is respect for human rights. also, there will be no return to repression and corruption. there are several issues and every revolution is followed by a period of security and uncertainty and chaos. but we continue to try to return to normal life and to solve problems and protest. there is improvement in this aspect.
but it will need time. the program of the new government that will be introduced this week will contribute to peace and security and to encourage investment and a return to normalcy in tunis. thank you. >> david? >> i do not see any women. [laughter] >> my name is joseph. if i look at the history of the middle east and north africa, i see very little democracy. as an american, is what confused about what is the meaning of sharia. can you provide a vivid example of where sharia law promotes
democracy? >> thank you. >> my question is for you, mr. atig. you all experienced political repression. you were in prison for a long time. my question is, what did that provide for you personally and as a political figure? i am sure there are many people like you coming from that. how does that shape the political landscape? what kind of struggle do you personally go through and how does it shake your political view as a politician? thank you. >> the woman in red over there. you. >> is so in from egypt. i have a question for the
jordanian rep. i know jordan does not have sectarian issues that lead to sectarian violence. i know there is another set of issues, ideological -- palestinian versus jordanian. how does that affect the agenda of the muslim brotherhood? thank you. >> thank you. i am from the american task force in palestine. you mentioned the issue of arab- israeli relations. you said this is a matter of concern here in washington. think about it muslim brotherhood's position. my question to you -- think about the muslim brotherhood position. my question to you is how would you deal with jordanian-israeli
relations and how would you react to an american-led delegation? will we see a more pragmatic muslim brotherhood? >> please. >> start with the question -- as muslims, we believe ethnic diversity is a source of enrichment for society. it is one of the most distinctive characteristics of american society. we believe that the problem -- the moslem-palestinian problem in jordan is an illusion to hinder the peace process and
that it is not a real problem. the islamic movement is the biggest component socially and politically that strikes a balance between the palestinians and the jordanians in jordan. perhaps, most other political parties polarized toward one particular group. there are parties in which there is a jordanian majority or palestinian majority. we believe it that this is an important distinctive characteristic of the islamic movement. for example, in areas that are predominantly jordanian, it has fielded candidates that are of palestinian origin.
this is a plus and not a con. also, with respect to the other question, the muslim movement does not have a problem with israel. our problem with israel is political and it relates to the occupation of palestine. the jew-bangs live in all arab countries -- the jews let in all arab countries. there are jews still living there. depicting the problem of the arab-israeli conflict as a problem with muslims is completely wrong. an attack by a muslim against a muslim is considered an individual at that. an attack by a muslim against a christian or a jew is an attack
on the process. it is not considered an individual problem. we believed this issue will be announced one day. we will say that once we are in government we will have clear answers. we will advocate for peace and for writes for the palestinian people. the rights have been usurps and they have been denied for all people for a state that reflex is on palestinian identity. this will be a decision to be taken by the jordanian people through the election of its own representatives. a government that will engage in foreign policy. this is the general framework about our policies. with respect to the private framework, before we talk about
anything, we talk about ending the israeli aggression against the palestinian people and also to the return of all of the usurped rights of the palestinian people and also the return of the displaced and the refugees. based on your resolution 194. and also to restore all of the rights of the palestinian refugees. this is a clear position that the muslim brotherhood adopted and jordan adopted. in the aggression is a precondition for any further action. >> regarding the relationship of sharia with a democracy, we see
democracy as a vehicle. it is like the greek philosophy. there is judicial independence and a peaceful exchange of authority. and also the freedom of expression. all of these mechanisms do not affect islam at all. if we go to the writings of [unintelligible], we find this new modern earned, centrist line, -- modern centers line --
centrist line in a way that does not contradict islamic thought. it is the main pivot for the muslim movement. the brotherhood and hamas and the justice and development in morocco and all of those scholars -- democracy is a mechanism to adopt the principle under islam. this means democracy does not contradict with islam. the second point that was mentioned by the lady is a personal matter.
i spent 16 years in prison, six of them in isolation. i left my daughter at 2 years old. when i came out of prison, she had already gotten her bachelor's degree. we spent many years under the dictatorship. there was torture against political prisoners. the political climate is a harsh discipline for political prisoners. our only comfort was the holy koran. banks to that, i came out of prison -- thanks to that, i came out of prison memorizing a koran.
we were deprived of visitations for 10 years. i am not had any communication even through a glass window with my family. we do not want a society with repression or suppression of freedom. we are victims of torture. traces of torture are still with me and my body. i will never repeat this experience to violate the physical bodily injury against human beings. we suffered because we opposed the regime. we represent the islamic
reference in tunisia. we are against oppression. we suffered under oppression and we will never build anything but a project that is built on the freedom of individuals and the respect of human rights. the question of freedoms -- this is guaranteed. thank you. [applause] >> i want to apologize for the many, many hands that are raised. i want to encourage you all to mingle with the guests and talk to them during the intermission and during the day. we are going to have a 25 minute break until 11:30 a.m. and then reconvened to talk about the constitution writing process. thank you very much.
middle of its carnegie endowment for international peace -- i do not cover the capitals -- when they are out there in the middle of it, it is calm. when you are home and you get stuck in traffic, you are just a guy stuck in traffic. it is not so bad. see a tribute to -- >> after that, see a tribute to barbara mikulski. she is the longest serving female member of congress. >> i am is still that young girl in the blue jumper. i am is still that person who wishes to light one little candle and curse the darkness.
maybe force be with us. >> it was a great honor and a genuine privileged to serve with each of you. to learn from each of you. i know you wish i had learned more, bob. but i learned from each of you. quite frankly, just simply to know you both. >> reporting to war and conflict and it used to barbara mikulski and howard baker and bob dole. it is tonight hours -- starting at 8:00 p.m. eastern on c-span. >> we return to the carnegie endowment for international peace with more discussion on
political parties and governing in the arab world. this includes economic plan for the two nations to move slower in the aftermath of last year's arab spring -- to move forward in the aftermath of last year's arab spring. it is about an hour and 40 minutes. >> good afternoon to all of you. in the interest of those who have already arrived, we should get started. we are going to move from politics to economics. we have a wonderful panel. they will lay out the vision in terms of economic strategies for tunisia and jordan and egypt. then i would like this to be an interactive panel so that the more we have questions from the
floor, the more specific a candy and the more we will be able to get to the heart of issues on the mind of the audience. you have the biographies of our distinguished panel. i will not go over the details except to tell you who is sitting where. the next to me, is the gentleman from it. i would like each of the panelists to do is take 10 minutes to answer the question, which i think is on many people's mines about economics. one year after the start of the arab spring -- i would like each
of the panelists to take 10 minutes to answer the question, which i think is on many about economics. all three have avoided a crisis. if you look at economics a year later, there has been no growth in any of these economies. a little bit of negative growth in the couple. unemployment has gone up. social pressures are rising. even maintaining macroeconomic stability has become more challenging because the pressures on these economies have increased. one immediate challenge facing all of these countries and the governments that will be taking office or have already taken off this is, how do you avoid a crisis in the next year? that is the immediate challenge. what brought about the
revolutions and the uprising was not that there was macro economic instability. none of these countries had macro instability before. what brought about these revolutions was that the growth was not happening and young people were coming on the market without any opportunities for them. what opportunities were there were not being distributed fairly. there was a process of economic transformation. five years from now, the economic outcomes of the government in the middle east will be judged not on how they avoided the crisis -- crises are light -- crises are like heart attacks. just avoiding a crisis would not be enough. when people will judge them on is, how will you generate the jobs needed, the transformation
required to make growth more inclusive, have safety nets and people feeling they have an opportunity to participate. my question for all three of you will be, if you can take 10 minutes to lay out where you think you would like to be in five years. what is it you think you are going to do to get you there? what help do you need from the rest of the world to help you get there? then we can get into specifics of that. i will start with you, if i could. >> sure. thank you very much for giving me the opportunity to lay down the economic policy of tunisia as we go forward. i would like to take you back to the reasons for the revolution. there are two main slogans raised during the recent
revolution. liberty and dignity. it is not the bread and food revolution. it is the revolution against dictatorship to regain freedom and dignity. we need to keep that in mind. there were some social and economic problems. they work involving in the society before the revolution. the static or tunisia has been established two days ago. i -- the establishment for to nietzsche was -- but in each was established to today's about -- the process for tunisia was established two days ago. let me brief you about the
general outlook and the general picture and the strategy. when we put forth the strategy for the coalition government, we were afraid that if we had an elaborate strategy and a general framework and a developed policy published, it would give the wrong signals to the people and we would be criticized as being just 48 period -- just zero are a -- just for a period of a few years. what we did what state aid vision that would it stay --
spent a vision for tunisia -- state a vision for tunisia where there would be a reconciliation between democracy and modernity. where we want to needed to be in the next five years. this vision was detailed and general policies were state it on how we are going to execute. the economy basically start from the precept that in tunisia, employment comes from growth. we have no oil.
we have no gas. we have no minerals. the only way we can provide jobs is if we create growth. one percentage point of growth is equivalent to 16,000 jobs. in order to a sort of all new cameras on the job -- all new commerce -- all newcomers on the job market, we need to create jobs. the economy was growing by 5% before the revolution. in order to create growth, that growth will only come from investments, both domestic and international. we need to create the right environment to encourage people to invest. in order to create that environment, we have adopted
three pillars. the first one is a set of political reforms that come from growth. for example, the eradication of corruption, the establishment of good government and transparency, the establishment of the independence of the judiciary. these are important for and masters. they usually lead to reforms in this area. they lead to direct percentage points in the growth. the second day is to introduce 13 sets of reforms, the reform of the investment code, the reform of the tax code, the reform of the transportation code, the knowledge economy code. all of these reforms need to be carried out starting now. some of them will finish by june.
some of them will take one year and will finish during the mandate of the government. they might take 2-3 years, but they will start now. the second pillar is to introduce a set of reforms that make the business environment friendly for investors. the third pillar for sustainable growth is the development of infrastructure the government has a complementary budget law development from 5.2 billion off dinars, an increase of 3.2 billion dinars. all kinds of and for structure is necessary in order for businesses to come and invest, especially in the region of the interior. what we did between december and
now is have a national confrontation with the region. we asked people what kind of infrastructure projects they would like to see in the region. what did the previous dictator do for you? is it the hospital? would you like an electrical plant? we got all that information after one month in consultation. afterwards, we decided on two porat -- two priority projects for egypt. each region will get, in addition to the infrastructure projects, at least the key priority projects that -- at least two key priority projects that will be executed. this will take us from -2.2 growth to 3.5 growth in 2012 and
then seven points, which is well -- where we will be in 2017. the sustainable track is the main track in tunisia. this will yield to the first jobs in a year-and-a-half or two ears. we have 800,000 unemployed youth today. we needed to introduce another plant, which is a tunisian and component into the -- into another plank. we are going to increase government spending in three major programs. one program is to create immediate temporary jobs for about 100,000 people. just like the new deal did in the 1930's, which is to provide be used with temporary jobs,
waiting for the economy to take off. the second is to do on job training to change and make college graduate more adequate for employment. some college graduates have degrees in fields that are not adequate for getting jobs. the third program is to build 30,000 social housing units over a period of two years. this will be done through increased government spending. to reassure the world bank and the imf, it will be in the grow and stop mode. these programs are stated for duchy years. 2012 and 20 -- are slated for
two years. in the steps that are going to be carried, the government was careful to say, this is a general program. this is where we are heading economically. we can only do this much in a year. our mandate is for one year. we do not say, when islam is come to power, they do not intend to leave -- would islamists -- when islamists come to power, they do not intend to leave. we have a target date for the
next election. the government has announced it will maintain an independent election committee. it will maintain the president of that committee. he did a fantastic job. he is known to be a leftist secular. for those of you who would like to know where we are heading, the idea of giving a clear road map, a clear direction, a sense of objective to assure investors and society to introduce some comfort for production to go back again. that is alongside the decision to maintain article one of the constitution. it has created in the past 10 days a climate of security. there are fewer disputes and less tension between the different tribes. that is important for business.
business and politics are closely interlinked. a good political framework and a sense of direction is good for economics. the complementary budget law increased public spending by 2.4 billion -- 2.5 billion dinar. the financing of that will come mostly from the sale of the confiscated assets from the benali family. also, although we did the public
stimulus package for 2012, we will reach a budget deficit of 6.5. we were on a budget deficit of approximately 3%. macro economics and stability. we ran all the scenarios of 2012 and 2013 through the model you have and we estimate it three kinds of shops. a valuation shock, and inflation shocks, and an international crisis. all of that show our economy -- shows our debt is sustainable up to its 65%. we are in a safe zone compared
to what is happening today. our debt situation is still healthy. our objective is to come back in 2014 to a deficit level of 3%, an inflation level of 3%, a debt ratio of 40% by 2013. the economic strategy that tunisia will be adopting. there are many encouraging signs that investment will go well in the country. many countries have shown support for to nietzsche economically. the united states is showing a lack of support. it has announced it will give to these the $100 million in direct aid.etary
a lot of companies are visiting tunisian and indicating their intention to invest. we have every reason to believe that the environment will be good for these countries. we are seeking been established -- the status of a privileged partner with europe. secretary clinton announced to the prime minister a few days ago that president obama gave the green light to start free trade agreement in negotiations with the united states. that is a good sign for investors and for american firms.
growth and investment will create jobs. thank you. >> that is a clear plan and you have laid it out nicely. many people have specific questions they want to come back to it. before we do that, i want to turn to the other panelists. jordan is not the same as tunisia. they have laid out a government plan. your perspective will be different from that. economically, tunisian has more space for doing the kind of fiscal expansion because the initial debt levels were low. the budget deficit was small before the 2011 -- before 2011.
jordan is in a slightly different place. less space to do the kinds of things 20s it is doing for the short and yet, some of the same kind of challenges you are facing in terms of youth unemployment and the shock of high energy prices. i want to get a sense from you of how you see the kinds of policy packages that you think would make sense from where you sit. it may be different from what the government is doing. >> thank you. i am a medical doctor. i have to speak in arabic. it will be easier.
i am involved in a project of $50 million. principals of the free economy -- the nature of the reform problem. i believe any islamist movement that wants to start with economic reform should work to stop the bleeding. in medical terms, there is average bleeding. we have to work to stop that bleeding. support other vital signs for life.
the islamic movement had suffered. many people suffered a lot from corruption and the dispensation of public funds. i believe it is imperative that there should be a serious step in this direction so we are able to control the resources that are being wasted in various ways. no doubt that corruption is a general barometer. in the arab world, we have 65% work in agriculture. of course, here is a shortage of water. the number of unemployed is 50%.
those below the poverty line is about 1/3 of 50 million -- of 350 million. if we wanted to look at these numbers, there would be concerned with stopping that waste and torture. the movement is not against the public sector. for example, i have about 1000 citizens with me. if people create projects like i do, you would employ about 100,000 people. the government employs about 6000 people annually.
there is a lot of human manpower. the government tried to work on this by employing people within the government sector to camouflage these numbers. is find the ones who produce are more productive. focusingsector are more productive. i think focusing on the private sector is no doubt a step that must be an emergency step, and we cannot adopt the western experience because we cannot compete by establishing conglomerates. that requires a huge amount of capital. we focus on small businesses.
this is adopted through development projects where families that work in the agriculture sector and small industries would be able to produce some immunity for the domestic economy and ordered it will provide the necessary basics and a decent life for the citizens, and we are not talking about luxury. there is something else. we are concerned first to provide basic needs. after that we work for prosperity among individuals in society. i believe small development projects should be targeted
extensively through programs that will be employed by those who will be in government. other issues in my belief, the infrastructure and the focus on projects are long-term projects, the means for infrastructure products -- projects trade no doubt there is a problem with financing sources. the islamist movement -- concerning the first track of interest charge. together the expatriate's from citizens abroad. most of the people there have many of the citizens lydgate -- living abroad.
they have a successful businesses. these project could be gradually moved by providing the right climate so they can invest in their mother country. i believe turkey depicts this issue. the governing party is an islamist-leaning party, providing for more than 2 million turks have returned to turkey. they have invested their, and that reflects on the prosperity of their country. this is an example. the other example is far away -- borrowing. nor is it a shame, because there is no country that could do completely without having
economic relations with other countries. the rich finance the poor, which is a principle of mutual benefit. balanced investment, which is properly guided, will lead to broad developments in infrastructure. it is something that could be studied and would be a range for. there are no reservations on the corporation for the imf or the world bank for purposes, not to interfere in the sovereignty of the country, but to take their advice to maintain the price of the currency, and this is a sensitive and serious problem for the recovering nations, because the issue of currency is not a domestic matter, it is a regional and international
matter. it is imperative for a certain period of time the focus should be on the international -- to maintain the price of the currency. the relationship with islamic banks -- i believe islamic banks are not an able or experienced in the international area and it is possible to depend on these banks as a world model that can stand side by side, competing with conventional banks. it is not the time for the islamist movement to fight the banks or make it imperative that only the islamist system should exist.
this should be looked at from the point of what is good for the country and the economy and for the protection of the economy of the country. i believe is possible to cooperate. we now have islamic banks, and the question now is the choice is left to the citizens. they will decide which banc one to deal with it. some see that an islamic bank is more for them. others see a commercial bank is more for them. the final point, and i would stop talking afterward. i believe in international economics there are agreements
and international relations that should be respected and should be seen as an integral part of globalization, which we cannot avoid as the islamist movement, because it is a national order that is not affecting great aspects of life, and most likely also in the economy. thank you. >> that was very helpful. also going into some of the detailed elements that many people have on their minds. you have given the answers to the questions that people were trying to raise. i am sure that will not stop them from asking questions. let me now turn to our final panelist. perhaps you could get the egyptian perspective. one topic i may suggest which affects both jordan and egypt
is how you see dealing with one big source of problems with a budget, which is the generalized subsidies on energy products in both countries. and as you know, the benefits of these energy subsidies tend to go mainly to rich people, rather than to poor people, particularly when it comes to gasoline and products like that. yet, throughout the middle east the way to help poor people is that a system that mainly helps rich people. i would be interested in how you see the subsidies. >> thank you, and thank you to the carnegie endowment for making this possible. the freedom and justice party has outlined a strategy, and launched two processes to mature a pyrrhic one is the process of
dialogue to get as much feedback, a different perspective, and so on, and the other process is to technically formulate policy packages that will support that strategy. my role in the next five to 17 minutes is to try to lay out that strategy, and i hope in that clear terms. the strategy is fourfold. one is to expand the private sector, limit and shrink the government in power, civil society, and integrate egypt in the global economy on more favorable terms. we can go into these briefly. to give you an idea of how suppressed the egyptian economy is and how underperforming it is and how there is a huge need to
expand private sector, egypt's contribution to world trade is close to .23 of 1%. this is an economy that is not performing up to the potential of its people. this is a very depressing. why is the economy not performing to that extent? there is a great book that i would recommend ever but it to look at because it tackles egypt, but also many other countries. it is called "why nations failed." the author describes what they call the extractive political institutions and economic institutions versus inclusive
institutions. one of the classic examples come extractive institutions are ones that extract the resources come opportunities, and so on of an economy for a the interest of a very narrow group of people in a particular country. political institutions that support that kind of extraction have by definition oppressive. the end result is the creation of all these very rich and very capable, but very, very tiny class of people who have enormous amounts of power, money, wealth, but at the end of the day, when you look at and economy of 85 million people, at the other -- on the other hand, it creates a very low demand, because the rest of the population is suffering. this awful statistic that i
always suffer with, because we say -- have to go into an egyptian village and spend a day there to feel it. we always say 30 percent of egyptians spent $2 a day or less. it is not just a statistic. you go and spend a day in one of the regions or villages you get a feeling of what this means on a human level. it is just awful. i do not want to go -- awful. what we want to do is actually removed that extractive sedition and put in its place an inclusive institution. we like to include more and more people in egypt and give them more access to economic opportunities. we would like to do that by reversing the previous regime
has done. if you look at the book that i refer to, it outlined in very interesting ways how this extractive institution was able to work. it gives examples of key industries in egypt -- the cement industry, the media industry -- and it details how these industries are so limited, . there are entry barriers like no tomorrow. it details how this happened, which coincided with data we are now proceeding, not from our people, but from the government agencies, the central bank, finance departments. people are coming forward to say how this actually happens, how this was possible. amazing government contracts on amazing terms, tax breaks that you have never heard of, land
deals, real estate deals totally unheard of, also, that kind of thing. fuel deals. when you look at the privileges that been given to these few, the outcome is a sure economy. we would like to reverse that and give access to people by diversing these strenghts. we would like to restrict the government cannot make it simpler to practice economic activities, cibber to invest, first of all, to save, to invest, to pick projects they would like to go to. we would like to make it easier for them to get licenses to work, and so on and so forth. numbers sometimes help. the egyptian public sector is about 7 million people strong.
it is just amazing. to compare it, and you talked about turkey, turkey as almost the same size of population of egypt, and it has 650,000 public employees last i checked, which means for every turk public servant, there are 11 egyptians. this is what part of our program does not mean creating more jobs in the public sector. we want to restrict that, and hopefully reverse that trend and create jobs and move a huge part of the public sector into the private sector through these measures. why we include the empowerment of the civil society -- because we need a much stronger civil society to serve the mechanisms of checks and balances on the government, because it is not
just about a party taking over. we have had this experience trick is about the institution of the government, which can very easily defeat the program of any party, unless you institute the checks and balances that would put enough pressure on the government bureaucracy and start reversing the trend of this widespread corruption. you asked the question of corruption, and corruption in egypt is a very interesting question. the fourth pillar of the strategy is to integrate egypt in the global economy on more favorable terms. by that i mean we looked at the strength of egypt, the comparative advantage of the nation, and we looked at practices of the previous government and how they articulate it the strength. they articulated the strength of egypt in basically the terms of
a nation, and terms of it being a country where it is easy to go and institute polluting industries. we identify the strengths of the egyptian economy, the advantage in the workforce. egyptians have a very large - work force. i agree 100% that the revolution was not about bread, a huge part of it was about apathy. it is just about millions upon millions of youth who have been look at by the previous regime not as assets cannot resources, not as an advantage, but as a burden. we would like to reverse that and by giving more access to these millions of egyptians, we
aimed at increasing the competitiveness of the egyptian economy. one way of doing that is to redefine what we call the value- adding industries as those that are associated with the elevation in the capacity of the work force. whenever industry is going to add to the capacity of that workforce, to join the knowledge economy at a much more favorable terms, is a value-adding industry. we're looking closely at things like the medical i.t., new energy. we would like to achieve four objectives. one is brought in the demand picked the second is to create a more fair distribution system. we do not want to do that
through regulating its centrally, because that would not work. we would like to do it by stimulating the economy. when you stimulate the economy, improve the checks and balances of the system, give more access, we will get a better income distribution of wealth. the third objective -- anyone knows how hard this is -- this is part of what we think the legacy our party should be, given where we come from. we would like with this restriction of the government to redefine the relationship between the state the population, the state of the society, in egypt. egypt is one of the few societies that were born with the state. it did not start with people who went farming and then decided to have some sort of a central system. it started the central system. egyptians' relations to their
state is so unique. you go to any egyptian and usually by the end of the day he will have cursed his government two times or three times. then you go and say the government to rationalize the subsidies, and people will go in riots in the streets. people are still so much connected to this government, we would like to change that with time and change the concept of the government and the state from that of a controlling want to one that is an powering. hence, really, the potential of society and not just the economy, the freedom, dignity -- these things will not come by the way people are still occupied within their own minds with perspective of a state being --
and the fourth objective is to increase the competitiveness of the egyptian economy. we're looking at three themes. we are trying to attract foreign investment to egypt, but not in a sentimental way. we're trying to come up with in the next couple of years, between 50 and 100 sound projects, that have good business plans behind them, financial models, in a number of select industries, and this is what we are looking on now, looking at what industries would qualify to host these projects treat each project will attract an investment of $1 billion. we're putting into the next couple of years between $50,000,000,000.1214226313
dollars. we're looking at two kinds of industries, some in which industry -- egypt is already strong, like tourism, textiles, and so forth, but also looking at the industries that we believe with the work force we have in egypt we can excel in very quickly. we're looking at i.t., energy. the second thing to create jobs, we are looking at a very ambitious small- and medium- sized campaign. there is bad news and good news. the bad news is egypt has already tried that. it is not a great thought that we came up with. we know that small and medium enterprises have been done before. the problem was not with finance. the problem was with the way it was managed. small and medium enterprises is a complex undertaking, it requires a system in place, not just to finance, but to educate,
to train, to integrate, and to finance and to look at the social, economic picture of what is going on on the ground so people can repay the loans they get and have a success rate. we are hoping by being a grass- roots movement that we will have a better luck with designing and executing small and medium enterprise campaigns in egypt. the third thing we're looking at is similar to what our brothers in tunisia are looking at. infrastructure. we will probably do a massive government spending in infrastructure, and we will go to the same process of identifying what kind of infrastructure. we're looking at a highway kind of a project, amongst a number of other possibilities. these are the three streams were
looking at. in the shorter-term, we have very serious challenges. we have a liquidity issue, and we are working with the imf to grant the loan -- and we have a political issue, not an economic or fiscal issue, that is hindering the loan, and we hope to resolve that very soon. we have a government that is going to take the money and spend it and then we have an elected government that will take its place a few months and be responsible for repaying it. we're working on that. the imf loan is not just important in its own right in terms of the money it provides to egypt, which is important, it is important in terms of integrating the new government of egypt in the global financial institution, is irresponsible kind of a deal and opening the door for more it deals with others. in the short term, if you look at the numbers, there's no
escape, the egyptian economy will need a lot of help from outside. this will not happen unless there is irresponsible government in place that is going to spend money wisely and is going to repay debt on time. the second challenge we have is the future expectations. we have people in egypt who think that with the wreck the revolution -- that with the revolution and that freedom and justice party to power, all government works should become permanent. everybody used to have a certain income needs to go to a higher income. these are dangerous expectations at a time like this trick our second challenge is to be extremely open, transparent, frank with the people and go to them with a plan. we do not want to say it is a very dire situation. we want to say it is a dire situation, but here is a plan, let's work together.
we have the challenge of the moving obstacles which does not require a lot of money. moving obstacles from international investments. there is no kind of her bureaucratic complications. we have a team working on some big that we call the first 100 days plan. airtran to make sure the very first -- we are trying to make sure the first months of the working of this government will mean some tangible benefits for people, with things that cannot require a lot of money. we are looking at the basic services. have you ever driven a car in cairo? you know what i mean. a person visited cairo in the midst of the debate, and he came into the office.
he was sweating and he said in a broken arabic -- [speaking in arabic] the guy was right. there are two conditions for this program to work, and we're not kidding ourselves about it. this is the kind of program that will not succeed because the party -- [static] is a time to go? the first condition is one of ownership. if we cannot get significant segments of the egyptian institutions and society to own this plan, it will never work.
if we do not get very significant parts of the government bureaucracy to accept that, the private sector -- this is why we are dealing with the private sector to look at the situation favorably, to come and insure the enormous task. this is a the enormous task of the revolution, the people. we need a lot of partnerships outside of egypt. global institutions, with groups of investors, with multinationals, and we are working on that as well. if we succeed in securing these two conditions, then this plan or strategy has a chance. thank you very much. [applause] >> i have to say that you have now had a very clear plans laid
out, and of course now it will be good to get some questions. i would encourage people to be a little bit provocative, because i am sure people who have laid out plans want to hear whether the kinds of issues on your minds so they can be implemented. as before, i will encourage your to identify yourself when you speak. i'm going to go right to the back, the lady over there first, and then i will take three or four questions, and t. >> thank you for taking my question. i was very impressed by each of you broaching the subject of the infrastructure, with different ambitions. both tunisia and egypt, it appears you are in a dialogue to figure out priorities, which sounds laudable. however, as a veteran of the industry, i am cautioning you if you do not have a master plan or
if you do not look holistic play, especially at the transportation infrastructure, you'll end up with a hodgepodge that it will be difficult to fix later. that is a comment. my question is, how do you plan on an acting contracts for major infrastructure projects, and candidly, how welcome our u.s. firms coming in to help to work with you, offering construction engineers from other parts of the world? candidly, please. >> thank you. i want to go to the other gentleman on this side. >> thank you. i have other questions for egypt
and a question for the three of you. for egypt, would you consider or agree to transfer the military aid that goes to airplanes and tanks, etc., to the economic and development? it may be not great, but the symbolism is viable and would be helpful in building hospitals and schools. another question for the three panelists, i did not hear the word education. technical education and the elemental -- the kind of background that is impressive. >> ok, thank you. i now have the lady in the front here. >> just to follow up on the question about military, speaking of favoritism, will you be able to get the military out of the economy, and also, speaking to the egyptian analyst, how can you revise --
revive the tourist industry? will there be a political problem, especially with certain members and project -- in parliament? will this scare the industry off? what are your plans for handling that touchy problem? >> i will take one more question, and then i will come -- >> thank you. my question is to questionel- kazzaz. you need to have ownership from society. my question is, how will you try to convince them, knowing some of them are liberals, and they do not want to participate with you in the riding of the constitution? how would you overcome this challenge? >> great, so we have questions.
there were specific questions for each, so i will go to egypt. there were two more general questions, the issue of education and the other was a question -- how will you let out contracts candidly? >> the first question is easy to answer. it infrastructure projects will be tendered to public -- and a transparent fashion. whether you a are different firms, you have the same chance as any other firms. many u.s. firms already visited tunisia, and i think they have good chances. they do not need favorite treatment. they have good technology, know- how, and tunisia can benefit from that. the second question regarding
education is a very important one. i talked about the problem of on-the-job training, which is one important program to fix some of the problems, but you are right. one of the 13 projects is about education in general. education has been very important in tunisia. we have a high literacy rate. we have 500,000 students in the university system today, which is 5% of the population, approximately. we want to turn our problems into opportunities, because today we are graduating approximately 70,000 new graduates every year. we have a problem with employing people with college
degrees. we have 200,000 people who have college degrees and do not find jobs. that is a very painful situation for us. the reform of the education system is a very important issue, and thank you for mentioning that. but it is mentioned in the program. it is one of the 13 programs where we are going to undergo a massive restructuring. one last point regarding education, is that we are conscious anything that touches education is a medium and long term, said it is not something we will be able to do in one year. but there are many things that we will start in this government that will be carried later on for future governments. >> i want to say i know that a person is sitting in the second row, and he is passionate to think about the basis for the education system in the whole of
the region, not simply in terms of structure, but in terms of how they approach learning and teaching, because it is an interesting phenomenon that in this region the more education you have a harder it becomes for you to get a job, which is the opposite of what you see in other regions. i am glad -- and i think marwan wants to make a two-handed intervention. >> thank you for giving me the opportunity. my concern with all education reforms in the arab world, including what i have heard so far from you, is that they are concentrating on the engineering aspects, the technical aspects of the problem. trying to increase scores in math and science is, build more schools, etc. what we do not hear enough about is the value system.
are we teaching our students to criticize, to question, to treat truex as relative rather than absolute -- truths as a relative rather than absolute proof in the old system, we are told how to do that. there was they would be able to criticize their own governments, secular or religious, and that is why they have not been taught that. is there a realization that in today's were, unless you teach people the elements value of diversity and acceptance of different points of views, and excepting that what you are being taught in class is not necessarily the truth, is there a realization in all our countries that unless we do that we're not going to produce productive economies, we will not solve the unemployment
problem, or are we still talking about investment in the technical aspects, engineering aspects, but not in the value system? >> thank you. do want to respond? >> thank you for making the point. that is a very important point. there are, just like in the economy, we are facing special circumstances today. we're not in a country sitting where we can have the luxury to plan and do everything at ease. become out of the revolution. we have very specific short-term demands. the long term society projects. just like in the economy, we have to tracks, a sustainable tracked and short-term urgent track. in education we will have to do the same thing. there are students today who have degrees, and it is too late for us to think of programs such
as you have been describing, because these kinds of things start from the primary school, the secondary school. we have 500,000 students in the university system already that will be graduating soon. our worry, to be frank with you, at to be practical, is to find ways to give them employability, to try to improve their skills, said that it meets the demands of the job market. now, we have in tunisia -- if you make a revolution you have to build a new society based on new values, democracy, transparency, critical thinking -- that is what we make better citizens. we're talking about that, and that we will do just like in the constitution in the context of consensus and general discussion, because we do not want to indoctrinate and model
of society in the educational system. we want to engage a global discussion, where islamists, secularists, all components of society will come in and discuss about the kind of educational system we would like to do. the short-term programs for education will include these technical programs in order to improve employability. the long term programs we will have to go on the basis each just described. >> in jordan, we have a good experience in education. in jordan we do not have oil or gas. we have manpower.
we have at 25 universities that accept students from abroad. the manpower -- thousands of jordanians, after they graduate, they go to work. i think still the problem of skills and training, and to direct the education toward a special program to build special skills wanted inside the country and outside the country -- this is a good opportunity for these countries to invest in education. >> you had the general point,
and what about the role of the military aid versus development aid? can you do tourism as one of your partners? >> easy question. the only investment that i have ever done in my life is in an educational institution, which my wife and i have a school. i am saying that to say the whole idea of the different model of education is so vital. we spent three years researching and came up with something called the creative curriculum. i cannot agree with you more. when we provided this service to kids in egypt, the event was amazing.
i do not think we need to wait to rethink the whole modelling of education in our countries, because there are already things out there, different debates, models that have been tried, school institutions. we have associations that are helping us, training our teachers. my thinking is hopefully in egypt we will go with this at a faster track, because the educational system in egypt is in it amazing need for fulfillment and developed at all levels treat the whole mottling think is very much alive in a statement that we put out in the party which is not very famous. we put out a statement called the innocence program. we are all indebted to tunis in
particular. maybe we will internalize that affiliation. we have a lot to learn from our tunisian brothers. in that statement, we stayed we needed to rethink key models in education and other endeavors. we need to rethink the model and not just build institutions along the same model. i could not agree with you more. thank you very much. not to the easy questions. getting the military out of the economy in egypt -- i do not think we will do that by colluding with the military. the military has a certain percentage of the economy that differs depending on how you look at it. if you look at the assets, the
real state lands, it is a bit larger that if you look at it from a productive contribution to gdp perspective. it is significant. what we would like to do is to expand the civil part of the economy large enough so that percentage gets smaller. with time, rethinking the military mindset. by all means, egypt does not mean to go into an agreement with the military on that subject. we learned from countries that move from a military paradigm to a symbol -- like spain -- and we had a workshop with people who brought us the biggest lessons and that experience, which also goes along the lines with the liberal businesses. we went to south africa and we learned about their reconciliation program. we are not in a position in our
country to exclude anyone now. we are not in a position to go into unnecessary fights for any reason. we would like to include everyone who has even been part of the business apparatus in the old regime so long as they accept the new rules and ease them into it. someone said, these were the rules. in order to do something big, you had to go through this model. there were 32 families and egypt -- and they tell us we had to go through these 32 families. that was the system. otherwise they would not do business in egypt. how can we include after the fact the behavior that was more luster rule? we want to stop it going forward, create all kinds of
measures of transparency, checks and balances, but try to ease these people into it. there's no point in running them out of the country. nothing will happen, nothing good will come out of it, by the way. tourism industry -- one of the first meetings we had with different industrial teams in egypt was with the owners of the tourism industry. we had two shuja town hall meetings, and they came up with all these concerns. what are you going to do about people in swimsuits, beaches, liquor, and stuff like that? our answer was we would like not only to maintain the tourism industry. we would like to expand it and make at aligned with the promise of egypt, you know, that repeat tourism in egypt is one of the
lowest in the world. although this is an amazing country for those who visit, we say how many people would like to come again? very few. not because -- it is because of what happens when you go. the experience -- you just go see the pyramids once in your life. the repeat business in egypt, the last i've seen come is 4%, versus france, which is 60%. if you go to the champs-elysees once, you want to go to the champs-elysees again. i want to work with that industry to improve it. >> very good. let's have another round of questions. the front row here. if you could bring the -- the question is not to tunis and
jordan. >> ok. thank you very much. this was music to my ears listening with mondher. the revolution started not because of food and bread on the table. it started for dignity and freedom. my worry, with a fantastic plan that has been put forward, the pillars, objectives, the same thing with the way you're doing with the next 12, 13 months, i think you are going to have bread and food revolution coming to you if you think you're going to go through that and it is gone to be done. as obama set last year, this is history in the making. you're starting from zero. to start from zero in a world where everybody is bankrupt, you have a crisis from europe to the united states and elsewhere in terms of the financial crisis,
economic crisis, and even a sovereign crisis. you need to kickstart the economy sprit the only way you will do that -- you not have stability, like that. stability will not come through like normal process. it will be through sustainability. you need to create sustainability, which means immediate job creation. jobs, jobs, jobs. you need to create jobs in the immediate future. if you do not do that, where art have revolutions big time. -- we are going to have revolutions big time. we should thank the two nations -- the tunisians for where we are today. >> i think he will be happy to take it. >> there is an envelope --
>> i take 10%. egypt is where things would happen. if egypt is successful, then all of 300 million arabs will also be successful. to get it right, you need to create jobs immediately. i do not think you will do it the way you put forward. you need 20 million jobs in the next two years or three years. the only way you are going to do that is with infrastructure. you need to build big time in for shelter. it will not happen easily. you guys here are to push jobs. that is what you want. there's only one place who can
do that for you. the money from the government, and we think the libyan problem, the iranian problem, where the oil price is $125. that element, that increase, most of it will be treasury bills, sitting here doing nothing. that money in the next five years, $500 billion, coming through for the countries in transition to create jobs through investment. not to give me a loan, not through the nation -- investment, an investment in infrastructure. business is a 15 to 20 years of return. that is what you need to do to go for it. you will not be successful. marwan and i would have been fighting this elsewhere when we
were younger, on the issue of critical thinking. the critical thinking was not there, not allowed. it is not to do with skills, it is values. we do not have our values to be for argument's sake. it is a silly question, but we talk about basic human rights, all our rights are protected under the constitution. the muslim brotherhood -- will accept a muslim-born egyptian, he says when he is 20 i want to be christian, buddhist, atheist? would that context petition -- would the constitution protect his rights? i think we need to think from that aspect. thank you. >> the gentleman in the back had
his hand up from the beginning. >> thank you. i have a question about -- for tunis. for the last decade tunisia has not applied the arab league boycott to issue. over the last decade, tunisia has not applied the arab league boycott against israel. there have been stories in the american media that some members of different islamic parties in tunisia are now saying that the boycott should be reinstated. i wanted to find out what the border towed -- the brotherhood's position is on this, considering we are going to go forward with a free trade agreement, which needs to be approved by the u.s. congress. >> the gentleman over here. >> i would be interested to know
the economics. there is a lot of talk about the support of gulf countries to islamic groups in tunisia, jordan, even in my country in egypt. if you would kindly expend on that, i would be really grateful. expanding on another question, there is a general feeling over here that the west in general, many of thept, western countries have taken from the economic dimension and themes of the arab spring as the only tune to which they could have leverage on the upcoming and new regime's coming out of such revolutions. based on your experience and on your interaction, to what extent do you agree on those
statements, and how do you plan to deal with that? thank you. >> just to be clear, the two courses you want to raise -- the second one is the extent to which you feel the panelists agree that there has been the economic lever is the one being used -- [unintelligible] do you find there is the use of an economic lever, by the west, as a way of influencing the policies of the new governments? >> my question is for both dr. ben ayed and dr. el-kazzaz. we have under emphasized
economics, but it is no coincidence that the uprising began in the interior of the country. the egyptian slogan on the first day of the revolution was bred, freedom, and social justice. i have not heard anything about social justice. i heard the comment that there will be an attempt in a keynesian mode to establish 100,000 jobs in tunisia, but i heard none of that with regard to egypt. for example, will come under your program and leadership, unions be able to be independent and have the right to strike? what kinds of social justice measures will you have for the 40% of people living on the margins, at or below poverty? that was a very important part of the revolutions in egypt and tunisia. >> four questions now, and maybe this time we will switch the order, as there are more
questions for tunis. with --going to start t >> that is an egyptian kind of a joke. creating jobs through its fisher -- i thought i said we're looking at three streams of programs, one of which is the projects, and infrastructure. we're looking at the infrastructure as a stream in its own right. this is where we were probably in the next year or to start to kick start mega projects. it is not want to work with the 1 million to 2 million jobs, because this is not enough, and because of the pressure from the government bureaucracy. that needs to shrink. i definitely agree with you.
on the social justice issue, that is a key question, because i agree with you, that revolution -- we have to pay tribute to the revolution. the revolution succeeded because it emphasizes some basic human values, basic human values. it did not emphasize any sectarian or narrowly defined kind of interest. hence, social justice would simply be a very integral objective of the revolution, at any objective of anyone who was serving the revolution. i will state my personal view that the party was elected because people felt this is the party that can serve the revolution. if we fail, they will elect us out, because the values of the revolution were more dominant in my mind than the agenda of any party. i agree with you 100%.
parts of the pillars of our program is to empower the civil society with all its actions, not just the unions, that is one part of try to create social justice. by shrinking the government and sort of lifting some of its grip on society, we're trying to introduce mechanisms by which people have access to jobs, better education, health, economic opportunities, and creating social justice by working on the judicial system as well. this is intended and designed to achieve that. if i may make a comment, and least in my own experience so far, i have seen people very interested in the arab spring. i have been engaged and i have seen the engagement and i live in this country very very long.
i have seen a renewed energy and interest that goes beyond the economic issues. i don't think that it is just economic, i think it is part of a broader dialogue. this event to me is sort of a historic kickoff of such a dialogue. >> there was one other question was a gentleman had which is, what is your experience in terms of the gulf countries interest in actually supporting the process of transition? >> i think there are two levels to the issue of the gulf countries. one level is the immediate of the perception at least that the arabs spring is bringing a
stability to the region. this is a very volatile place which would make anyone nervous. on the other hand, i think the integration of between the social, economic, so on between the gulf and the rest of the arab world is the core of the relationship. there are two statements, we are in no mood to export anything to anyone because we understand more than anyone that revolutions are not something that you export. change in any society has to come from within. we are not interested in pushing any change outside of our own country. the second message is that we would like to integrate with the
gulf countries, not just on these investments but a much broader field as well. we see these ads a civilization kind of a project if you would and we will not go it alone. i don't think that the gulf states are anyway detached from the crisis that has created the change in egypt and tunisia. >> is anything you would like to add? >> i was struck by the last question, the social justice part of the revolution is very important. when i said that the revolution
is that of dignity, you said this the other way around. if we don't succeed in economics, will have the next wave as addressed and the food revolutions. we are very concerned about this. what we remind people is if they just tackle this from the point of view, the political process is very important and this is a project that is taking a lot of energy. let me summarize this. the way i see it, counder -- we failed to do many things right.
with --, some things went right, many things went wrong. i am not here to state what went wrong. this time, the society is staying a bit. there is insecurity. there is absolutely is social and economic aspect that needs to be done. if we do the political process reform right, when the economy comes back to normal functioning, we would be proud if we said the bill was paid because we had achieved was lacking to our society which is the establishment of freedom, human rights, democracy. if we restore economic prosperity and we fail to do that, this would not have been worth the hassle.
we started by refocusing the point on this. this is not to focus on the downside of the challenge. indonesia, the labor unions are very strong and they have contributed a lot during the revolution and now the government is engaging in dialogue. in the government program that we have, i did not go into detail but we had a piece of 12 measures, social measures. we have increased the number of families that benefit from what we call the poverty stipe and. we've raised the amount. the whole packages, the social
action that is aimed at the very delicate and pour segments of society because we feel that we need to do things urgently and we need to do it now in order to alleviate the weight of the suffering of these people. so, the other question is regarding the free-trade agreement. there is a lot of enthusiasm and respect for the revolution. they have dignitaries, prime ministers, ministers of foreign affairs visiting tunisian on a daily basis. almost 30% of the prime minister finds is receiving
these people as well and these people come to tunisia in order to congratulate the tunisian people for the work they did. in the past 10 months, a tunisian has received more visitors and more dignitaries in its history than in the past 50 years. we have a lot of support we have many supporters from europe, the u.s., who stood up with in asia. this is as the first day with the tunisian people. we're also receiving a lot of senators come people from the administration and a lot of encouragement. of course, there is a big focus in the world in making tunisian the model of a successful democracy which is modern and prosperous in the arab and
muslim world. this is very important. this is very important to us because we have concerns. i think that the u.s. does this because it is in their interest to see a country like tunisia and egypt become a model. this is such an important thing. this is the key to many of the problems towards civility, towards peace. that is why when we talk with these countries, we don't feel any pressure, honestly speaking, that the only message we get, what can we do for you so that you succeed? the only focus is not on regional issues and other issues, it is on domestic issues and how to make this work and succeed. so, there are common goals. we want them to succeed.
the u.s., europe, and other countries want them to succeed. we think this is the best way forward for us all. the other thing is is if these models fail, this would be a complete disaster. there was no seminar that said what happens if all of these revolutions fail. this is a nightmare for the countries and for the world. really, there is a concerted effort from the international community so that we succeed. things have changed. you don't have dictators anymore. now, you have to deal with the
democracy. the governments are not free to take any position or do whatever they want to do if there are things that are and then national interest of these countries and they would refuse and we would not be able to do. if the government does something against the interest, they will lose the next election. the people are watching. this is not as easy as it used to be. this is a new equation that we have to deal with and you have to deal with. as far as the feet trade agreement is concerned, that is a good side. disney's to go through congress. this means to go to the constitutional assembly of tunisia as well and approved by the two parties.
we are very confident we will succeed because we have a free- trade agreement with europe and europe is moving to a privileged status. we know how to operate in an international context. as far as the israeli- palestinian conflict is concerned, i would rather have the minister of foreign affairs answer your question. tinny shot operates within the framework of the arab league and did not take any initiatives outside of the arab league and in that regard, it is not different from any other arab country. there are countries that have free trade agreements with the u.s.. i don't think that is a problem. there are no particular policies or options that are being taken. >> thank you very much.
what i would like to do is say from my perspective, i want to end on making two fairly obvious observations. in the next 12th, 18 months. the big challenges really the one that you have raised which is how to manage the gap between expectations and delivery? and there is almost no model of delivery, whether it is on the politics, the jobs front, whether it is on making societies more open that one can imagine will be fast enough to respond to the expectations which are sometimes on realistic. managing that gap is going to be the big short-term problem because a failure to manage that can derail the process.
the second observation i have is that we're very focused on the short-term. you started talking about the challenges for the medium term. is the rest of the world as conscious that what we're talking about is an engagement that is a long-term engagement? what we're not talking about is the financial support in year one, three trade agreement. then, we move on to the next issue. to make it work, this is day five, 10, 15 your project. in that, this is not to just the ambition of the casement but also whether we are ready. are we ready to rethink the way we operate in ways that will
respond to the needs of very different kinds of -- this is a bigger and more ambitious challenge and a quick response challenge. i think that this is something we should take away. we need to do our business differently. i would like to ask you to join me in thanking our panelists. [captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2012] >> tonight, on the events from the 2012 book festival. first, a personal chronicle, the story of the u.s. army's first blind active duty officer. then, "this burning land," which
looks at the israeli-palestinian conflict. after that, "empire of the summer moon," the rise of the comanches. the most powerful tribes in american history. >> tonight, reporters and photographers who have covered the conflicts in syria, afghanistan, libya, egypt, talked about their experiences and why they keep going back to these war zones. >> some of these guys have a reverse personality. when things are really good, they can be unmanageable. when things are really really bad, they are calm. this is really amazing. i'm not saying that they don't feel fear, they do.
if they say they don't, they are lying. they manage it. when the have to work, they concentrate. then the get back and you have to wait for the helicopter. when they are out there in the middle of it, it is so busy and it can be so intense that in its own way it is very self organizing and you are able to leave it behind. when your home, you get stuck in traffic, you are just a guy stuck in traffic. that is not so bad. >> after that, see a tribute to a maryland senator. she became the longest serving female member of congress in u.s. history. >> deep in my heart, i am still
the congresswoman from the third congressional district. i'm still a fighter and a reformer. i am still that young girl who went to -- with the mayor's daughter. i'm going to continue to work with all of you in this race. each and every one of you are here because you make a difference. may the force be with us. >> then, a tribute to two former senators. >> it was a great honor to learn from each of you. quite frankly, quite simply to know you both. >> reporting on war and
conflict and a tribute to the current senator -- this is all tonight starting at 8:00 p.m. eastern. >> next, a discussion on bullying in u.s. schools and what can be done to solve the problems for teachers, students, and parents. host: our final segment is a look at the bullying policy debate and how it's making its way into laws across the country at the state level and the debate in washington about school bullying and cyber bullying. i will start by showing you a graphic, a look at all the states in the u.s. the blue states have both a law and policy on anti-bullying. the dark green has a lot only. the light green on has a policy.
it is a nationwide phenomenon that our two guests will talk about. catherine bradshaw is deputy director of the center for prevention of youth violence at john hopkins. jack buckley is commissioner at the national center for education statistics, a federal agency. thanks to both of you for being here. we were talking off camera about 21st anti-bullying locked into place. tell us how it got started as a possible legal remedy. guest: in 1999 the state of georgia passed the first law. and there were the shootings in columbine, colorado. that was the event that got the issue of bullying on the national radar to be able to look at some of the incidents that were happening in regard to school shootings and we were not able to identify cause. there were multiple factors associated with it, but the bullying did play an important role. if several subsequent reports came out, the u.s. department of education and secret service were involved in, that examined school suitings and cases dating back to the 1970's and they found a common thread around bullying. so that brought it to the
national attention. host: we will put our phone lines on the screen, the same as in the last segment. parents, students, administrators, and all others. if you would like to share your thoughts about this and whether or not it is appropriate to have policy. all that on the table as we continue our conversation. why did you first get involved in tracking this as a federal agency? guest: in 1999 but longer than that we collected data on behalf -- in collaboration with the bureau of justice statistics and the census bureau, the national crime victimization studies. they maintained the school crime supplement. in 1999 we added questions about bullying.
host: how is that defined? guest: turns out to be a harder question that you think. there's a lot of federal effort right now around how to best define bullying. especially now with cyber bullying. a brief introduction and then we give them a list of different behaviors which we asked respondents as a definition of bullying and then we ask them of these different things, somebody done this to you? so we get specific and describe the behavior's. host: i'm sure parents are thinking and home, if my kid pushes another kid in the schoolyard, is this all of a sudden criminal behavior? how the policy makers distinguish what might be a national touted behaviours preternatural touted behaviors and something more onerous? guest: that can be a very complex process. that's why the reporting around bullying is very challenging for schools to understand. there are differences in definitions across different agencies. when you get to a building
level, i think principles have challenges trying to determine what kind of behavior is might be. but generally in the research we think about three critical criteria associated with bullying. aggressive behavior that's intentional, that tends to be repeated over time or looks like it's gone to be repeated, and typically occurs in the context of a power difference. sometimes those are difficult elements to discern when only looking at one behavior. host: looking at your first chart, these are incident rates. percentage of students that say they were bullied at school. there was a bit of a spike between. 2006 and between guest: there was. it was across the board. among boys and girls at among students of different races and ethnicities. there was generally higher reporting in the school year. i am reluctant to say there's a trend until we see more data, more years of data. but it is corroborated in other
data sources. host: below is a question of -- it says that you did notify a teacher or a dog at school about the bullying in the blue. and 63% said they did not notify. guest: a little more than a third of students actually tell us they notified and adult or someone at the school. we did look further into different characteristics of either the victim or the event that might be correlated with reporting. to reporting. for example, bullion episodes that were more physical involving injury or physical threat are more likely to be reported if they happened more often or multiple times as well. as students get older, they're less likely to report. older students getting in the high school years and towards the end of high-school are far less likely to tell the teacher.
host: and they tell you what kind of bullying they experienced, made fun of, called names, or insulted, 18%, the largest percentage. what should we learn from this? guest: it is important to remember bullying is not physical, necessarily. while those maybe the starkest episodes and the ones most likely to be reported, there's a lot of other behavior that students considered that did not involve shoving or physical contract, but was nonetheless damaging to the student. -- physical contact. host: what should we know about the likely matilda and to report incidents? guest: we hope parents
understandable they play about having open communication with their children before bullying begins. we have been talking with a couple of organizations at the ad council to help parents understand how to have open communication so they can have a good line of defense. when there is a situation that they are concerned about, they feel more comfortable going to an adult. it may be a parent at home or a trusted adult at school. that takes a long and concerted effort to be able to make that kind of change. host: we look at this slide. 2006 and 2007, higher incidence rates reported among both males and females. i want to put a spot on the screen from twitter by mary --
and this is a phone call from rochelle, a grandparent from brooklyn, new york. caller: thank you for the pleasure of being able to get in on the conversation. i have called on other topics other times. this one is dear to my heart because i have a grandson going through this problem in junior high school, first year of junior high school. i did not exceed the documentary "going," but i saw anderson cooper's coverage of it recently. right after i saw the show, i called a teacher i had been working closely with, helping her prepare her daily curriculum for students. i am very into education. i called her a and asked her if she thought that there was adequate -- that students and teachers and parents were adequately being educated to the damages of bullying and was that something on any kind of curriculum in the school itself. she said, well, yes, we have signs hanging around and it is like a passing conversation. i was saying that it should be on the national agenda. it should be on a national curriculum in every school, in every school building, and just like they have to take a course in english, math, science, there should be some course in children understanding the harm in bullying -- even calling names.
teachers but other personnel and bus drivers, cafeteria workers that are really on the front line. i recently worked on a project with the national education association, the teachers' union, where we surveyed teachers and support professionals from across the country, over 5000 of them. we found major gaps with regard to professional development being provided to teachers and staff. they found overall there was a great desire for more training particularly on issues around cyber bullying and relational aggression that the staff were not comfortable intervening on. so i think she hit it on the w -- the head. host: there's some discussion in washington about it being on the national agenda. sheila jackson lee in the house has entered legislation that would amend the crime control and safe streets act of 1968 to require the attorney general's staff to establish guidelines -- this has been referred to committee. it's one of four pieces of legislation we found regarding bullying.
the white house convened an anti-bullying summit meeting this year. the white house also convened an anti-bullying summit meeting. let's play a little clip of that to see what the president had to say. >> consider these statistics a third of middle school kids have reported to be bullied. almost three million children have reported to be pushed, shoved and even spit on. it's more likely to affect the kids that are seen as different whether the color of their skin, the disability they may have or sexual orientation and bullying has been shown toe lead with absences and poor
performance in the classroom and that should give us a sense that no child to be afraid to go to school in this country. they can follow our children from the hallways to the cell phones to their computer screens. in the recent month as series of tragedies has drawn attention to just how devastating bullying can be. we have been heart broken by students who have endured harassment and ridiculed and who ultimately took their own lives. host: that's president obama. there is another point of view and it's in the this column. bullying shouldn't be a crime written by elie le sal. >> what my parents knew is that in life there will always be
bullies and you're not going to be successful if you don't know how to handle both roles because you'll have to handle the job from time to time. they have to know how to handle being embarrassing and bullying. you think it's not humiliating to go to law school and get shoutout. these things happen to people every day. what are you going to do? run to court? not every bully is a criminal. you could say i was a victim of bullying. you won't say that the bullies try to make me kill myself. we're talking about tormentors not torchers. what's your reaction to that point of view. >> most people can really identify with it. clearly the author has had some personal experience and you can
grow from it. but what is porn is to know there has been significant research document that some of these experiences have resulted in internal problems such as depression, anxiety and in some cases that could be linked to suicidal ideas. host: 1/3 of kids, the other 2/3 learn to pop the bully in their mouth and go on with their day. guest: what we're typically encouraging you to do is to try to resolve the situation currently seeking help and support from other adults and with their peers and developing some strategies to try to get out of their situations or avoid them. host: you reacted to that too. guest: i wanted to add at what's the proper role here.
i would say some of the white house event that we attended last year -- this is a problem for health and human services certainly and the secretary was there. but also the secretary of education in my department is concerned in making sure that all kids have access to a solid public education and not be afraid to go to school to not avoid certain areas in their school or to be able to learn. there's a problem that perhaps popping the kid in the month isn't going to solve in terms of education. host: further break down the reporting. this one is race and ethnicity. what do you learn whether or not it varies between different racial demographics? guest: students of any race or ethnicity could be a victim of bullying. host: this is white students, hispanic, black students and
asian. you can see the details. guest: we do see a difference where asian students don't report but it's a significant percentage for any type of student. here's another parsing of the numbers by school location. this is rural, suburban, rural suburban or other -- urban, excuse me. guest: it's not confined to urban schools or rural schools this is what we see in any kind of school. host: it is fascinating that it picks up. do you think there was some sort of change in the way the accounting took place? guest: we know in terms of our measurement it didn't change. the problem, of course, there are so many other factors going on in the world of policy or anything else going on in the country that is very hard to
attribute something causal. you can't speculate that there are economic stresses. hard to know, right? guest: hard to know. guest: we were chatting about some of the other data how the center of disease control do a surveillance system. we were looking over some of that data and you see a little bump around 2007, intimidation by bullying. be interesting to look what was going on at that time. perhaps increased awareness of some of the policies. host: this looks at the difference between private and public schools. guest: dels a statistical difference. in public school 29% kids report being bullied and in private schools it's about 19%.
it is interesting to note. host: professor you're in the air. sky, you're on the air. welcome. caller: are you there? host: we are. caller: i'm a professor and i was a public schoolteacher in l.a. i'm calling to speak about l.a. we are not allowed to talk to the media without permission. so i can't actually talk to you about what goes on in north carolina. are you still there? host: yeah, we're listening. caller: oh, ok. i think some of the problems that people may not know about is that teachers are being bullied also. they're not allowed to talk about a lot of things going on. i taught in the middle school system in l.a. i've seen teachers leave the profession because kids relatives may be gang people and they work within the school
system. i've seen cars being blown up. i've seen teachers being tretnd in the classroom. when a teacher tries to help students they counter resistance. for example i had to establish a policy that all of my students hand in their homework before 7:00 otherwise they would be bullied during recess. in another case there was a fight going on outside the middle school and we pulled a kid inside who's eye had been slashed. he ended up going to the hospital and almost losing his eye. i and the other teacher were reprimanded and were told by the principal we shouldn't have done it. we shouldn't have helped that student because the school may now be liable. if you see somebody be bullied or hurt or injured or off the ground offer the middle school, leave them alone because that's their problem. nobody really takes into the fact that the teachers are
being bullied. host: do you keep statistics on teachers? guest: we do and we don't. we do some of the incidents that the caller describes are criminal victimization. we do indeed collect data on assaults including public schools, private schools. on the definition of bullying, we don't. guest: we actually have asked about that in several of our studies done in maryland and in our national education study where we found that 32% of teachers said they were bullied and it was a student. sometimes it was a parent or another staff member. that was the highest among the group. 17% for elementary school opportunities, lem
schoolteachers and 21% for high school teachers. this is another issue that the national education association is very concerned about in doing some work, how we can prevent it. we've been reviewing the policies. very few of the poll sis address issues -- policies address issues related to bullying. host: the company says the rating for the documentary "bully" has been changed from r to pg-13. an edited version will have the pg-13 rating. and they did that three uses of an expletive to earn that rating. they followed five kids over the course of a school year directed by lee hurst. what has its release done for the discussion? guest: it certainly brings bullying centrally back into
the cushion and among parents. i've seen from personal experience that bullying is very much on the minds of parents. host: have you seen it yet? guest: i have not. host: have you seen the movie? guest: i have seen segment. katie o'malley will be hosting a viewing of it a little bit later on. so we're excited about this opportunity to have some dialogue because what i think is really important is that there is some very serious content in the movie and we need to be cautious about how that is aired. putting the expletives aside, i'm a little concerned about some of the contend and how children would view this material. i think it's important to be able to have any viewing consider within the context of a supportive adult relationship so that way kids can talk to somebody about it especially if it triggers memory that they might be having or guilt if
they saw that happen. that's a common experience. host: back to the numbers. how does bullying increase? guest: what we see is as kids get older, the rates of bullying decline. for one of possibly two reasons, the first is perhaps there is actually less bullying something where the social hierarchy is more solidified and they're perhaps not using bullying as they were before, the social strategy. it's also possible that there is a reporting issue. just as they're less likely that they've been bullied as they get older, they'll unlikely to tell us. and there's a little bit of a compound there. host: this is grade six with the highest rate at 39.4. grade 12. 20.4. >> this is from biker. don't blame our children.
they are just a reflection of our society. host: where does bullying occur more often? guest: we find that bullying occurs in the hallway or a stairwell. so something between classes outside of a teacher's direct supervision but the next most likely place for bullying to occur is in the classroom. we do have places like the locker room or the cafeteria. it's only about 6% of the incidents occur in the bus they are more likely to be reported to teachers if they occur on the bus. host: who's reporting them? guest: the student. host: interesting. hi, sophia. caller: i just want to make a comment. i am the parent and i was bullied.
ok. harassment is the same action over and overplet when they grow up and work in a hostile workplace? adults get in trouble for stalking if a boyfriend goes to a girlfriend's house more than three times. they're legally in trouble. that is a crime. here in michigan, i forgot what town it was, did you know that a grown man got fined for saying a cuss word. why? because it's against ordinance. how about we teach these kids that when they open up their mouth there are consequences to what they say. if you don't want to make it criminal, give them a ticket like they did that girl. what happened to the rule that says if you have nothing to
say, don't say nothing at all? host: what do you think about the notion to diminish or excuse discriminatory and sometimes legal behaviors rooted in sex itch, homophobe yarks racism? guest: it's certainly possible that bullying can be occurring for homophobic and racist reasons. i don't think that's very exclusive. guest: the u.s. department of education out of their office of civil rights released a dear of colleague letter two years ago in the fall of 2010 that highlighted the difference between bullying and harassment honing in on harassment and comments, activitys that would focus on protective classes of
individuals and reminding schools that there is an overlap between bullying and harassment. there might be some incidents that might be better described as harassment. there is some guidance out there from the u.s. department of education about how to tell them apart. guest: at 18, it would make them legally adults. the legal environment is different for those students. host: stewart in cordova, tennessee. he says, i teach and more and more children are being told by parents it's perfectly ok to hit someone. i hear it all the time. i hear it from the children and the parents. we live in a world where any violence is experience. saturday commentary on america today. let's move from that comment to this statistics about physical fight and weapons. what do you learn when you ask about this question? ghoist the survey we also -- guest:, in the survey we ask
about behavior that they experience or engage in themselves. they more likely to be in a physical fight during that school year. they're more likely to bring a gun or a knife or other potential weapons. not being able to show that bullying causes that but the same things are more likely to be found monk those students than the other. host: syracuse, new york. you're on ray. caller: my first reaction to this discussion is i see billions of dollars going out of our wallets into washington and then coming back to us for what really amounts to a local issue. and it's just -- it drives me
crazy that anyone would think that this discussion at the federal level would have any chance of making the situation in the local area better. it's going to make it worse. we add a couple of extra problems that we'll have to deal with it. more problems deciding on what kind of government we want. so i just -- it just drives me up the wall to think that there are people that actually believe that we don't know how to handle these kind of things in our communities. host: well, ray your sentiment are ex-predsed by some critics. in audio reporter jessica from the idaho cool board association she says -- this is at the state level is the fiscal note which says there
should be no impact on the funds. it's associated with the provision of annual professional development, increase costs and legal costs. our school districts are at a very fixed budget and it will divert staff and resources in this data. guest: we recommend an integrated approach so you don't have one separate session on bullying and staff. we know that integrated efforts within the schools are going to be much more sustain and if people recognize the link between bullying and issues around poor school climate and how they relate to academic performance, i think it will get a lot more attention. it will have a lot more data between kids that are involved in bullying are less involved
to perform well. they have poor academic performance and are more likely to be truant and drop out of schools. and we see mental health concerns that draw down the school climate. i think it's important to recognize that bullying shouldn't be handled on the side but integrated with the development that's occurring in the building. host: i want to get to cyber bullying. a quick definition of cyber bullying, please. guest: in 2006, 2007, it's the first time we started to ask about cyber bullying. what we're talking about students powing hurtful information to other students, instant messaging or in a game k -- gaming world. host: you began asking this
when guest: 2007, exathe. age 18 students report that they've been bullying. host: there's not much reporting of it. guest: a little bit under a third will report this. this will occur everywhere. you do don't have to be on your phone. this could happen online. we have so little time to get through this. when we looked at that chart of anti-bullying legislation do most of those laws that have come into place over time also take into accounts cyber bullying? >> yes, most of them have been exclusive bullying that occurs through electronic devies. they talk about electronic aggression or bullying that occurs through electronic devices. host: this particular set of numbers we've seen what the various types are and what the
incidents are. guest: the most common are unwanted -- some bullying behavior through text messaging . host: just at 2% instant messaging and e-mail, 1.3% which speaks to how kids use technology more than anything else. i'm surprised that texting is the most common way. guest: when we go to ask again, technology would have changed and we need to ask a different technology question. host: welcome to our world. jim, you're on the air. caller: i'm thrilled to say how many callers and creators are actually outsmarting our experts on this issue. you're never going to have some additional layer of bureaucracy have any positive impact on it. i've seen parents that are bullying.
you'll never get through school or some bureaucracy. parents have to take care of these things. they'll never get into action unless it hits in the pocketbook. that's why our private schools are reporting less bullying because parents are more involved. host: thanks very much. guest: i don't think we are suggesting a layer of bureaucracy, host: our culture is now full of films that glorify child warriors. how can that help? do you ask questions about social impacts of the films, video games and that sort of thing and how that affects children's reporting? guest: we don't. it's a very good question, though. host: does your information tell you about the cause and effects of what children's are exposed to and their attitude and experience?
guest: they consume higher level of violent media and point and shoot video games are are more likely to link them to bullying. they're more interesting into that media. it's a little bit hard to see the cause an -- and effect. and also domestic violence and that could be they're learning how to resolve problems through conflict and through violence that's not the way we want youth to grow up. host: james is an administrator in richmond, virginia. caller: i'm trying to be sus sinket here and hopefully you'll bare with me. i think bullying is a complex problem, that's why we have so many different avenues that we have. but to focus on something -- i had an experience where i had
-- this is a different county. so i'm not imply cathing my own. but i had an experience where as an administrator, parents came and they were complaining about someone in the school bullying their child. and i took care of it there. and intervened but then i had the same parent come -- come into the school and want to and actually seek out the child that was bullying their child. and it ended up that they had a conflict. the parents had a conflict in the parking lot. and i had to call -- i had to call a police officer to come and break up the fight of parents in the -- in the parking lot. it was very dramatic. and there was many things going on beyond just the students.
it had gone over to the parents. and i think of bullying, you know, what do we do about it, and how do we make an intervention. bullies often hide in the shadows. you can separate students and you can have teachers keep an eye and make sure that they monitor what's going on but there will always be a hallway or monitor. host: just to understand what your attitude is about the policy attention on this. do you are you looking for support from school boards, etc., with regard to policing bullying? tell me about your own experience and what you think that the larger community's
role should be. caller: it's a good topic of conversation. anything we can do to -- to say that we're against it is good. and there may be a few things that are good. it would be good for teachers to have something, you know in staff development and that type of a things. but fundamentally, to me, bullying is a symptom of the larger issue of our society and civility, the lack of it. certainly, you can see case after case of students that are bullying where there are other factors that have been alluded to, where there's a problem with the family. when we have, you know, familys that are splintering around us and our children are becoming alienated from our cultural heritage then we have, you
know, ways of dealing with other students that aren't good. i think fundamentally, if we look at -- and this is what makes it a tough fix. host: i'm actually going to jump in. because we're returning out of time. in fact over the 10:00 hour. with his comments on the close there, let me ask both of the you to wrap this up. because he suggested it's symptomatic of a larger society. so where does the data collection and the discussions where do they enter sect? guest: several points that were raised were relevant with where we're going with the results that this is not an issue that's going to resolve through policy or any intervention that the school's going to implement. we're going to have to work together as a society and parents are also going to have to work very carefully with their kids about how to resolve these situations. it's not going to be just a simple program or policy.
most of the policies are providing recommendations that the locals actually develop their own policies. so there's an opportunity that the schools and the community and the districts can actually have their own voice and imply mentation so they can be cultural relevant for the families. host: joseph buckley, any closing statements. guest: decision makers and the public and the parents can use resources and decide what to do. host: dr. buckley's numbers and those of his colleagues are available to you with much more detail and additional studies at nces.ed.gov. thank you very much for being here this morning. and katherine bradshaw also has