tv Key Capitol Hill Hearings CSPAN August 21, 2015 2:00am-4:01am EDT
the best entrepreneurial environments in the country. as a result, innovation is surging. jobs are returning. lights are back on and buildings that were once vacant. while it is true, the city received help from check -- received help from taxpayers, -- a reformed economy. not a bailout. many of the business leaders in this room can attest, one of the biggest obstacles between detroit and its future continues to be washington, dc. until washington learns what the city has already learned, our entire nation will be held back from a new economy. that is why if i am fortunate enough to be president, my -- our reforms will be based on addressing the modern challenges our people
face in their lives. today, i thank you for this opportunity, because i would like to describe to you my agenda. how it would play out in the lives of two hypothetical people from detroit. a small business owner operating a auto bill -- operating an , and a youngop woman working at the front desk. as we see, the challenges we face is a result of washington's failings. let's call our business owner david. a owns a franchise of national automotive repair company. he has 10 employees. in the past, david never considered himself a political person. he never thought his life was impacted much by what was happening in washington. lately, his costs have been soaring. when he looked at his books, it was clear why. the cost of equipment. outdated trade restrictions are preventing his franchise from
finding products that are at a competitive price. washington continues to tax what he invests in modernizing his equipment, despite the fact that our economy needs businesses like david's to integrate new technology. next comes labor costs. it is getting harder -- is getting harder for david -- one is the rising cost of health care under obamacare. it cost the average business $15,000 a year. in addition, the president has mandated overtime pay to millions of salaried workers, including several of david's employees. a top of that, david is struggling behind his mechanic who understands how cars are changing. he needs them to have certification and the ability to work with new technology. receptionist,his
david has been her boss for five years. he cares about her. he is proud that he pays her $9.50 an hour which is more than minimum wage. he knows that is not enough for her to provide financial security. it bothers him to hear hillary clinton on about how cruel business leaders can be with their low wages. he knows the minimum wage or to jump to $15 an hour, he would have to cut and yells job. -- you have to cut danielle's job. he is talking about shifting her to a part-time position which would save him in the pacific -- save him a significant amount under obamacare. he knows his customers prefers the personalized service danielle brings. the next expense yes to consider is complying.
there are strict rules on anything from how he disposes of rags to how he applies touchup paint to cars. some of these regulations he understands. some of them seem unnecessary. he has had to hire a lawyer to make sure he does not violate these regulations. washington agencies are threatening him in other ways. they are on the verge of declaring he cannot even own his own business. he is a joint employer. the likely impact is that fewer franchises will open. costs will increase for existing ones like his. all of these calls palin comparison to what comes next. if there is one thing threatening to force them out of business is his taxes. washington takes one out of every three dollars that he earns. by the time he factors in state and local taxes, he pays about
40% of everything he makes to taxes. this makes it unlikely that he will be able to grow his business or give anyone raises. if he did, the government would reward him by taking half of what he earns. by the time he counts for all these calls, david is lucky if he has anything to spend on advertising or facility improvement. it seems inevitable that he will have to hike prices or lay off workers. with all of this, is it any wonder that so many americans feel like giving up on the dream of owning a business? is it any surprise that for the first time in 35 years, we have more businesses dying than starting? a progrowth agenda will not just helped david, it will also help his employees, including danielle. danielle like so many young women was abandoned by the father of her children.
left to raise her two kids alone did she moved into a small apartment that's a small apartment in detroit. she works 40 hours a week at $9.50 an hour. after rent, her biggest expense is childcare. it costs about $350 a month. that is on the low end for cities like detroit. next comes or gas analyst bill which are usually about 100 dollars combined. the interpretation cause. detroit has a sprawling job market. meaning danielle has to drive 25 minutes to get to work and 25 minutes to get back. gas is $100 a month. her car payment is $200 a month. insurance could cost several hundred dollars in detroit. it is easy to see where this is going. at the time she factors in food and clothing and all the other costs of raising children, danielle's wage at the auto repair shop is not enough to
keep her out of that or off of government assistance. to find yourself on the is of poverty and slipping over. -- she finds herself on the edge of poverty and slipping over. she dreams of advancing to a better paying position. she has david what it would take to get hired as a mechanic? which would more than double her pay. for that to happen, she would have to go to school on nights it will costand thousands of dollars and time away from work and family shared she can't afford that. like all parents, she dreams that her children's lives will be better than her own. she tells them that they can be anything they want. she understands what they are up against. she knows she will have no choice but to send them to a struggling public school. she knows she will not be of to save for their college education. all of his leaves danielle feeling hopeless.
millions feel as if the american dream, the idea that a person can go as far as their work can take them, they feel like it doesn't exist anymore or it doesn't apply to people like her. the challenges facing david and danielle r, across this country. while their names might be fiction, their stories are too real. you know these people. so do i. people like david and daniel have no lobbyist and washington. both parties have let them down. history is going to judge us by what we do next. if we continue to cling to an outdated tax codes, a failing -- numerous policies that make it harder for businesses to grow and opportunities to flourish. we will be the first generation in our history to pass a weaker
america on to our children. if we embrace the american economy, we will put david and danielle in control of their own destiny. we will put them within reach of their american dream. as president, i will begin by overhauling our tax codes. overhauling it to make it progrowth and profamily, because it is neither. america will never be the global leader in the century if we continue to have -- to have the highest corporate tax rate. michigan will lose $11.7 billion in gdp over the long term if nothing changes. my tax plan will begin by cutting the corporate rate to be competitive with the average of 25% for developed nations. it will cut the top tax rate for small businesses like david's. this would save him around 50%. he can use that increase -- save him around 15%.
he can use that increase. help my tax plan would business owners like david at that his this is to the new economy -- david adapt his business to the new economy. this will lower his tax burden and encourage all this is owners thatvest in new technology will keep our economy on the cutting-edge. the nonpartisan tax foundation found my plan would grow the economy by 15%. it would grow wages by 12.5%. it would create 2.7 million new full-time jobs. this helps everyone. an increase in daniel's wages would amount to $205,000 a year. would helply side danielle even more. right now she gets a $1000 tax credit for each of her two kids. this doesn't come close to
meeting the cost she faces as a parent. it fails to recognize the investment she is making in america's teacher as a mother. my tax plan would raise her per child tax credit to as much as $2500, allowing danielle to keep more of our money. i would change the way she receives assistance. instead of getting the earned income tax credit at the end of year, she would receive a wage enhancement credit. this would reward and encourage hard work and amount to about $500 more per year to danielle may choose to get married. the current taxco would punish her for making -- the current taxco would punish her for making that decision. my tax plan would remove this penalty. nothing has the ability to prove her children's future more than the chance to be raised in a
loving two-parent home. grow hishem to business, we need to limit regulations. . complying with regulations have cost our economy. washington as more rules every week. last week, regulators published $205 million of regulatory costs. led by a new efficiency standard for sealing -- for ceiling fan light kids. -- light kids. i would stop it by instituting a regulatory budget that limits the costs of each agency's rules and what they can impose. wherever to stop unelected bureaucrats from organizing the economy with a stroke of the pen. like the national labor board has threatened.
it is a risk to every single one .f the 216 michigan jobs we will lower the cost for businesses by embracing the global economy. trade is vital for the automotive industry. andeasingly, every industry our economy as well. in michigan, trade accounts for 1.2 million jobs. it could account for even more. as a president, i will look for new opportunities to expand free trade. for new opportunities for us to open up our products in more markets than ever. it is more important than ever that we finalize the transpacific partnership. economy and a profamily tax codes would ease danielle's burdens. to transform her life, just to be able to get a higher paying job. higher education is no longer an option. not in this new america.
it is a crucial pathway to the american dream. for most of our people. for danielle to become a mechanic, she will need to to five years of formal training under the existing system. to bring this within her reach, outdatederhaul our education system. i will change how she received her training. how much it costs. and how her payments are determined. hillary clinton came up with a plan. here is what it is. $350ise taxes and throw billion at a current broken education system without doing a single thing to fix its underlying problems. this is lazy leadership. i will do the hard work to modernize our system. i will expose higher education to competition which will prompt a revolution driven by the needs of students like danielle. i will do so by establishing a
new accreditation process that welcomes low-cost, innovative providers. i will also help danielle find more affordable routes. for example, we will expand a pretty shift -- we will expand apprenticeship ramps. -- apprenticeship programs. empowering danielle will change your life. toalso need to empower her empower her own children. if danielle had four children -- had more money, she would be up to send her kids to any school she wanted. she should have that right regardless of her income. when i am president, she will. i have proposed a tax credit that encourages private contributions to scholarship granting organizations which in turn distributes scholarships to children in need like hers. these reforms and many more would lay the foundation of a
new american century. it would only be the beginning. congress to save social security and medicare for seniors. without changing them for current seniors like my mother. i would modernize our immigration system to make it a skill and merit-based one rather than a family-based one. i will protect the global economy through a foreign policy that reestablishes american strength around the world. none of these changes are going to be easy, but meaningful change never is. detroit knows better than most. this city was not built by managers. it was not built by bureaucrats. this city was built by visionaries, by people who refused to accept the old way of doing things. bound by the restraints of the past. henry ford once said "if i had asked people what they want, they would have said faster."
-- they would've said faster horses." our government is led by people who would rather tweak the current system then revolutionize how we do things. they pump more money into the education system of the 1900s. thinking it will prepare our people for success. they rely on the programs of the 1930's without saving them. they expand the safety net programs of the 1950's, hoping they will help the struggling escape their circumstances. they want to raise taxes like they did in the 1990's, thinking it will increase opportunity. the result of this outdated approach is all around us. the insecurity of our people's lives, the challenges raising americans like david and danielle. the concerns about the future we are leaving for our own children. a decade from now, all four of
my children will be adults. not want to have to explain why the america our parents loved was the greatest nation on earth, but the one where leaving them is not. let me close by saying something i say everywhere. america does not go me anything. i have a debt to america i will never repaired. -- i will never repay. this is not just a nature -- this is not just a nation i was born in. when my father was nine years old, my -- nine years old, his mother died. he would work for the next seven years of his life. when he was young, my father had dreams. those dreams became impossible. here in america, his children's future became the purpose of his life. for years, my father worked as a
bartender in a room just like this. on nights, weekends, holidays. on days i'm sure he didn't want to, he worked. he worked, because he wanted all the things that were not possible for him to be possible for us. my father stood behind a portable bar in a room like this . so one day i could stand in front of the room like this. that room from -- the journey from behind that bar to behind this microphone for me is the essence of the american dream. that's not just my story, this is our story. we are all just a generation removed from someone who made decimate our future the purpose of their life. now it is our turn. now it is our turn to leave for our children what our parents left for us. for the better.
we have to rise to the task of our time. if we adapt to the future, we can expand the american dream to reach more people and change more lives than ever before. you and i and this generation can write the greatest chapter, in the most amazing story of america. you and i are blessed. we live in the most exciting era of human history. if we look yesterday, we are going to be left behind by tomorrow. if we elect a leader from yesterday, the best we can hope for our faster horses. if we embrace the new american economy,, smits that our people will make -- if we embrace the new american economy, the advancements that our people will make will -- [applause]
>> senator, your remarks have generated a lot of questions. some via the internet. some on our blue card. we're going to try to mix those. the question that has received the most interest via the internet is how do you feel about the highlight the political aggression on minority populations, specifically asking americans echo mr. rubio: this is a legitimate issue. pursuing ahey are counterproductive way. we have a percentage of our population who feel they are being left behind by opportunity, by the american dream, by our country as a whole. we cannot ignore it. many communities, the relationship between minority communities and the law-enforcement agencies are terrible. i've said this before. this is a legitimate issue. i know someone, a young afghan american male who happens to be a police officer -- a young
african-american male who happens to be a police officer, who was stopped several times last year. you stop me a times for no reason, -- so would you. this doesn't happen everywhere. we cannot ignore that. we cannot ignore that this country has a legacy of racial dissemination. still legal it was to discriminate against someone because of the color of their skin. this does not go away overnight. you can change loss, but the impact still remains. this is an issue. we need to confront it as a nation. i don't know what law i can pass. our society better adjust this issue, because we cannot succeed as a country if a significant portion of our country feel locked out from the promise. we have to address. a lot of that involves
government action. i hope we take that seriously. i am proud that in the florida legislation we did adjust it. program ined that the inner city of miami. it has spread to orlando and jacksonville. it is not a solution for everyone. it creates a geographic zone that says in this area, nobody will fail. from this point forward all of our children will succeed. we expect from them what we expect from children everywhere. it works. we created a commission to study black men and boys. we concerned and south florida desk in the chances of them going to jail was higher than them going to college. among those young men could be the person who cures pancreatic cancer, or the first man or woman to walk on mars.
these are important issues for us to prioritize. we cannot be a great nation when a significant percentage of our nation feels locked out. is whater question lessons do you take from the strong support of nonestablishment and it's like donald trump? or ben carson? mr. rubio: people are upset and angry. we can use this anger to motivate us, but we cannot let this anger to find us. this is not an angry nation. this is always been a hopeful nation. this is been a country -- this has been a country that asked what his next? how can we be greater. this is a nation of perpetual improvement. we have challenges. we have to confront them. we do -- we should have a sense of urgency about it.
us as't let anger to find a people. we are not an angry people. we are a hopeful people. we are a great country. some say we are going to make great debts were going to make america great again. america is great. -- we are going to make america great again. america is great. this is a great country. the issue is we could be greater. this nation could be greater than it has ever been. as i said, given the opportunity, we will us that -- we will astonish the world. i know this is going to happen. i want to get started. the longer we wait, the more people we are going to leave behind. >> coming from the cards, how do you view what edward snowden has done and what should be the punishment? mr. rubio: edward snowden is a
traitor. if he believes there was abuses, there was a system in place. if the desk the system did not involve going to russia and china -- the system did not involve going to russia and china and giving up our secrets. there are many women all over the world who are in danger because of what he has done. i believe if we catch a single member of our government violating our program, we should indict him, convict them and put them in jail. we must know more about our adversaries than what we know -- them what they know about us. some of the things he says is flat out lies. he should subject himself to american justice and service time in jail for being a traitor. [applause]
>> how do you plan to take on isis? with their organizational the rise? -- rubio: isis is not just and iraq. they have a presence in libya. they will conduct attacks on europe. they have a growing presence in afghanistan. given the a in the telegraph leadership, isis is looking to knock them off. they are a radical sunni movement. they must be defeated by sunni themselves. it is the sunnis themselves the must reject that radicalism. in the short term, i think it would take more american action. i think we need to cut off their funding and all of the propaganda they're getting by subjecting them to humiliating defeats. captured their leadership,
videotaped them and put them online for the world to see that these guys are not invisible. ultimately, they are going to have to be defeated on the ground by local forces. it may involve injections, jordanians -- involve egyptians, jordanians. there are christian communities in iraq that have been driven from their homeland. they have to be up to defend themselves and their family. they are at the mercy of others defending them. we should allow local forces to defeat them. sharing intelligence with them. only america can convene this sort of collective action. isis can be defeated but not without american leadership. we will if i am president. >> where you stand on the iran deal? mr. rubio: it is a very good deal for iran but bad for the
rest of the world. understand what we are dealing with. iran is not belgium, the netherlands. cleric who by a shia has an approximate -- who has an apocalyptic vision of the future. it ends up with the whole world ofing up under their version islam. when someone likes that -- was someone like that ends up with a nuclear weapon, we should be concerned. here's the only way we can keep that from happening, economic sections that say to them we will devastate your economy. the credible threat of military force that says if you try to build a weapon, we will attack you. this is the only link which they understand. it is the only thing that will work. what we have said is we will be nice you in hopes that you will
be nice back. we will allow you to have billions of dollars of section relief. -- dollars of section relief. they are going to use it to fund terrorist proxies and to build a nuclear weapon. they will rid of centrifuges from 1970 and they will replace them with centrifuges from 2015 and 2016. in less than 10 years, they will have weapons grade plutonium. they promised not to cheat, but they will do their own inspections, thank you. iran will have a nuclear weapon in less than 10 years. at that point we will not be able to do anything about it. there is already a credible threat of nuclear force. north korea. why can't we attack the nuclear program in north korea? program, theyheir
will attack seoul, tokyo and hawaii. if a run which is that capability, we are in a dangerous world. the world will know that if you try to build a weapon you will face military force. i don't support it as a first option given the choice between a nuclear iran and a military force i will take military force every time. [applause] >> we have had a number of questions on cuba and president obama's recent changes there. this question says as future president would you reverse all of president obama's cuban changes or would you be selective? sen. rubio: i would change them all and less cuba changes, too.
i am not her one-sided deals and that is what this is. let's understand that cuba is not some cold war harmless relic. they are anti-american communist dictatorship. today it houses dozens of fugitives of american justice including the murderer of a police officer in the 1970's who they have harbored for 30 years. dozens of people who stole your money. medicare fraudsters who stole money from you and our living high on the hog. seized 7 billion dollars of american private property including the hotel that john kerry toward the other day. a hotel stolen from the intercontinental hotel company. second today they host intelligence facilities. they host a chinese listening station which the chinese used to spy on central command, southern command, special operations command and russia.
the cuban sponsored terrorism even though we remove them from the list of sponsors of terrorism. >> 1.5 years ago they were caught shipping weapons to north korea in violation of human sanctions. despite all of this, the united states under this president has opened up a deal of more trade travel and remittances and exchange what are they giving --? nothing. the deal was signed in december they have arrested 3000 additional people. last weekend and the weekend before they rather up and beat and arrested over 90 dissidents. they haven't been shy about this at all. if you ever have the unique opportunity to listen to anything official from the cuban government here is their characterization of this deal -- we won and you lost. thee taken all of concessions we asked for and are giving nothing in return. nothing is changing.
in fact they are now demanding that we pay them reparations for the embargo and that we turn over guantanamo. i guess other than all of that it is a good deal but i think it is one-sided. i am in favor of changes in policy toward cuba but they must be met with reciprocal changes. if you want more telecommunications you have to open the internet. if you want more trade you have to have more democracy. i don't have a problem with changing policies, but they have to change, too. weerwise, what are we doing? are legitimizing a dictatorship of tyranny 90 miles from the shore. >> lots of questions for you on the politics of the race. one question we have is, how difficult is it for you to be in the race with your friend and former governor jeb bush. it is not difficult because i am not running against
jeb bush, i running for president. people andany good the democrats are struggling to find one. [laughter] [applause] i am not running against, i am running for. i want this to be a country where people can do for their children what my parents did for me. i recognize there are other quality people running who have lived longer than i have, but none of them understand what life is like today for americans better than i do, personally and politically. i understand there are people running who have more experience on the issues we faced 15 years ago, but nobody running understands the issues we face today better than i do or has done more work on them. i am running proudly on what i stand for and on the promise that if we do a few important things america will be greater than it has ever been.
it has been a lot of fun to be places like here and around the country but i am running for president not against any of my fellow republicans. >> this will have to be our last question as we are just about out of time. forent to thank you again being here today and sharing your thoughts with us. there have been more questions on paper and the internet about how you as president can help small businesses. your remarks clearly outlined a how would you but help the small business person in america? sen. rubio: small businesses have been deeply impacted by the bigger the government gets. if you're a big corporation you may not like big government but you can hire lawyers and accountants and compliance officers. if you're not your struggling. biggovernment incentivizes
business. politically connected can deal with it. the more power the government has the more power the people that influence the government have and that is what has happened in our economy. what are the impediments? their multifaceted. let's start with the individual. of $50,000 you cannot start a small business, you need a steady paycheck. that is why we need to deal with student loan debt in america. you deserve to know how much people make when they graduate from that school with that degree. you should know that the market for greek philosophers has tightened over the last 2000 years. [laughter] they get into the personal realm of starting a business. the more regulated, the harder to do it because you cannot hire an army of compliance officers. you also need access to capital. the problem is the banks -- a
lot of them are gone. the consolidation in the banking sector has really taken a hammer. the ones that used to lend money to the small businessmen and women are gone. we to confront that as well. the tax code is a big impediment. the big corporations are see corporations. -- are c-corporations. most business activity in america is happening through s -corporations or businesses. they pay on a personal rate. that is why i call and giving them equality of no more than 25%. these are all multifaceted but we need to be more pro-innovation and allow more capitation. more -- more competition. more banks giving student loans
to not subvert on-chip or newer entrepreneurship. the american people will take care of the rest. even as i'm speaking to you now, in detroit, someone in a spare bedroom is drawing on a piece of paper the next great idea and we need to give them a chance to put it into practice. i want this to still be in place we can start a business outside a small bedroom and your home even if it isn't within the zoning code. [laughter] >> thank you very much. [applause] >> will have more road to the white house coverage tomorrow.
texas senator ted cruz will be at the iowa state fair talking to voters. live coverage from des moines. later senator bernie sanders holds a town hall meeting in columbia, south carolina and afterward he will take phone calls from c-span viewers. live coverage starts at 7:00 p.m.. >> up next on c-span, look at the political and economic unrest in brazil. then a briefing with defense secretary ash carter on the military prison at guantanamo jimmy carter talks about his cancer diagnosis and treatment. >> this sunday night on q&a, curt dion has been visiting the graves of u.s. presidents and vice presidents since he was nine and documenting his
adventures on his website. he talks about those visits and his interest in american history. >> the one site everyone has trouble getting to is rockefeller. >> nelson rockefeller, vice president for ford. >> how did you do it? mightdid it and what follow describes as an act of god. he walked further down the cemetery and saw that this gigantic tree had colin. -- had fallen. he went in and saw the grave and decided he would have to get me there fairly quickly after that. curt dion, on c-span's "q&a." there were protests in brazil calling for the ouster of the country's president. next, the political climate and economic challenges facing brazil.
>> good morning. welcome to all and thank you for joining us this morning. yourself, thinking to why another event on brazil, especially in the latter part of august. the dialogue has organized a few events recently. are two reasons. the first is that there is a lot happening in brazil and it is all taking place at an accelerated pace so it is track of to keep developments as they unfold and try to figure out what they mean the second is that there is a great deal of steak and what happens in brazil. not only latin america's largest
country but a regional -- regional and global power and actor. i don't think anyone believed that the president's second term sure be easy but i am not anyone predicted how difficult and complicated the situation would be for her and her government. economy is expected to shrink by 2% this year. rocked theve troubled environment in brazil. dramatically reflected in the low approval levels. when here's that the mood is very pessimistic and sour with high levels of uncertainty as brazil struggles to deal with enormous economic problems and complex political challenges.
there have been considerable street protests with the last one on monday demanding impeachment. others have resisted that call for impeachment and have urged her to step aside and let others govern. i understand the marches planned support ofw in recess which will be some measure of her support in brazil. easy to point out the many woes there is also encouraging news with the judicial branch and independent on a mores taking independent and vigorous role and many brazilians showing less and less tolerance of corruption in the country. this morning we have with us three of the most respected and wildly cited brazil analysts in washington to share their insights and perspectives in washington to hope that they will not only focus on predictions though they are welcome to do that if they wish.
what i hope they will do is try to make sense of the current situation how we should understand it how serious it is. truce? is the government hanging by a thread or are there bases for some foundations to the government. what we should look for in the short term -- in the next three hours, and the longer term -- the next couple months. what are the most important factors that will shape and drive their scenarios. the role of different political leaders, the business community and the like. helpedortunate to have going through all of this it we have three superb analysts. castanedas is here this
morning. he focuses mainly on brazil but not only although it has been keeping him busy. he has been in washington for five years and works at various think tanks and consulting firms in brazil and has gone to many think academies. joel has a doctorate in political science from the university of san pablo. journalist with vast experience in washington and also worked in d.c. and many years ago in brazil with a magazine. .e is a frequent commentator you see his voice and hear his face recently and he is a
prolific writer on brazil and other issues. here andso taught georgetown as well. finally, peter hank him is the president emeritus of the american dialogue. matter what they will say he will offer a contrary view. [laughter] so, peter is not brazilian but nobody is perfect. [laughter] brazil andsed with tracks what is happening with intensity, interest in great passion. he writes for brazilian newspapers and is interviewed very frequently by the brazilian press. so we are very pleased to have the three of them with us this morning at a very critical moment to talk about what is in a significant
country in latin america. so each of them will talk for about 10 minutes and then we will open it up and invite your questions and comments and have a good discussion. >> thank you for coming in this august discussion. joel, why don't we start with you? joel: thank you for the dialogue and it is always a pleasure to be here and always risky to talk about brazil without keeping an eye on the news right now. that kind of situation where things move so fast that it is hard to have a cover hence it view of what is happening in brazil. it's interesting to take a step back and try to make sense of what is happening and where
things may go without using percentages. idea is to give some thoughts. them may be very incipient and raw given that there is a lot of different points of view and a lot of different hypotheses in brazil. but when i try to make sense of this and compare it to the previous questions in brazil -- and a have been many -- i don't think this is an institutional crisis. that brazil is going through an institutional crisis. it is a deep political crisis and a deep economic crisis but i think contrary to an institutional crisis, part of this is that the institutions in brazil work. the fact that you have an independent judiciary with
prosecutors with enough out of me to investigate that there is not a lot of political interference in their work. that is the sign that institutions are actually working. there is no quick fix and no easy way out of a political and economic crisis and this is the problem that brazil is facing now that precedes the current corruption scandal. of luk at the eight years a's administration and the first josef'sars of administration you have great economic indicators of brazil benefiting from the commodities boom, that boom cycle that we all know about but that growth model put in place worked quite well reached and exhaustion
point. if you look at the peak year, it ua was last in office until 2010 but the beginning of usef's years you had this consumption led brazil model that brazil implemented quite well not being enough to keep the ball rolling. so now the challenge has been for rouuseeff to transition from that model that worked quite sseff to transition from that model that worked quite well to an investment led growth model. it is the opposite led model that china is facing.
is the backdrop of what is happening in brazil in the last five or more years. a model that worked well for some time but needed changing. the corruption scandal it started almost one point five years ago accelerated some of those trends and made them more visible. the fact that part of that boom that we saw was driven by natural resources. a lot of latin america by mining and oil. where a lot of these political systems, brazil and colombia were flooded with money. -- the growth that was happening. once that started to reseed, corruption scandals or schemes became more visible. coincidencest a that you had corruption scandals
pop up like mexico, brazil, chili and argentina. there is a common denominator. so looking at the crisis now and what rousseff is dealing with -- given theobras magnitude of it and how intricate and systemic it was for the last 10 years it started early on and it shows that there are a lot of chance for corruption in brazil and now that the tide will have receded in brazil will face less favorable winds from the global economy that challenge will remain and will force any government, a rousseff or whoever, it will allow them to implement that new economic model. this that staying means if she stays or leaves it is not a quick solution to the
other problem where the challenge for brazil is to reassess what brazil was to be in the world and their economy. what is the importance of their economy as a huge natural resource rich country. economic ande and global a comic economic wind will be less favorable than they were, so i will think that rousseff will be impeached. i think she survives and the reason why i think she survives to the end despite a deepening crisis in the near term is at the crisis hasn't peaked yet i think it will probably peak over the next six months and we think there are a lot of incentives for prosecutors to continue digging deeper but at some point things will saturate early next
year and i will just give a few examples. ofen the economic backdrop recession and employment, popular support for investigations will start to diminish. prosecutors will not be the lack itfacts that will make investigations slow down, it will be a lack of human resources. meeting prosecutors have to choose what they want and can investigate because they cannot throw a wide net and paralyze everything. finally, there will be a backlash within the judiciary as well in terms of the tactics of the judge handling the case. i think there will be a backlash within the judiciary that will eventually slow down the pace of investigations. so for that reason, i think the crisis will still peak in the coming months. it will stabilize next year.
forrousseff will remain four reasons. there are four conditions that need to exist for her to be impeached -- to be removed out of office. one is a very low approval rating. we have that and we will continue to have that for the time being. for the remainder of her term. the second variable is political sheation, meeting that needs to lose support from social movements and the core of the pt. that is different from low approval rating straight the protest that we have tomorrow -- and are anti-austerity anti-impeachment meeting they are against the austerity package but anti-impeachment. have a hard time seeing these movements breaking apart, breaking away with rousseff.
even if there is more concrete proof but the risk there is whether or not the investigations will get closer. that could lead to hurt political isolation because the reaction function and instinct of survival is to move to the left to radicalize to move to the base. while her instinct of survival is to move to the right and double down on austerity. that kind of disconnect creates a risk and she becomes like the president in 1992 who was impeached. variable is that to be alignment between the largest arctic congress and the main opposition party for the impeachment and that is not given the fact that there are different interests be are under --
pmdb are under investigation as well. even though we can say the leader is not personally -- if you remove pmdb will bethe next in line. depending on the impeachment process you have it benefits the two parties differently. that the pmdb leader resumes, that is bad for the pst. finally, the fourth condition is the smoking gun did more concrete evidence of wrongdoing. even though understanding and issidering that impeachment
traditionally the political that thekeep in mind president who resigned in the middle of the impeachment process was acquitted by the supreme court two years later. i do not think all of these conditions will coexist or in the government is very -- i mentioned this before to the to thehat she is close brink and will remain close to the brink but there is no one willing to give that final push because the next government where it takes office will have to implement a similar recipe of governance. the economic crisis will continue to adjust -- exist. the political challenges of forging a new coalition will continue amid ongoing negotiations because if she steps down that is not going to stop investigations and if the
proof is not concrete enough it will bring for the question of legitimacy that could underline the wiggle room and the maneuvering room for the next president to govern. for that reason she is likely to ofain but will be weak, kind managing crisis from now to the end of the year. ,> on a final note, to conclude b always-- pst complained that the pt always took credit. it was crisis management mode. took office he benefited from all of that and took the credit for it. willhappen now is the pt return to favor. they will return to government and will return for a government
that will take office after 2018. >> thank you for getting off to a great start. aulo, lots of issues. paulo: thank you for the invitation. it is great to be with you here. what he said about the institutional character of what is going on in brazil. what we are seeing here is the result of reforms. the changes that took place in brazil over the past few years. one of the main instruments of the investigations under the acto, waslavas
activated. after 2013's massive rallies. it is the plea bargain. for that i think brazil is probably thankful to the inventors of that device. the plea bargain agreements that have been instrumental in deepening this investigation and revealing for the first time something we always knew that the system was very corrupt but now we have the x-ray and this is important. you understand how corruption works in detail. >> the second thing is just people in brazil -- including experienced analysts in brazil are very perplexed on what they are seeing. some say we have never seen a crisis of this dimension in half a century because it is
political and economic and people that are very experienced and normally share their periods but what is going on are saying, this one is difficult to call for some of the reasons he had already pointed out. the topic here, can she weather the storm yucca -- dilma weathercan the storm. the continued allegations of the continuedcase, the plea bargain agreements, the continued increasing of imprisoned people that you would not expect in the country of , that has the tradition of impunity for people in high
places. this is one of the things changing. thatxpectation of impunity one sparked popular belief in brazil is giving way to the expectation of prosecution. nowle are really expecting that there will be justice and this changes. this is society maturing and changing in brazil. there will be a competition factor. the recession and full bloom will continue at least until next year and it may continue longer depending on how we react now and what measures we implement to face it. >> -- to face it. given the efforts of the government by attempting to resolve things by intervening.
morning that this there has been intervention from kaiser economic to help some companies. with khyber -- kaiser providing public money to cut -- to accommodate some companies. this contributes to the public deficit in one way or another. there are a lot of factors that are important. recession will continue and thousands are losing their jobs. this will happen in the discussion. an important factor in we had not seen this kind of phenomena for a while. with theot seen it public as mobilized and as informed as i think brazilians are today. week is in brazil a opposition.
this is something that favors justcenario that joel described of the president surviving the storm. underway, talks of a big agreement with big accommodations that involves president lula, the president of the senate and some political leaders of the federation of industries and the business communities. people afraid of what is going on in the economy, the economy is in a freefall enter try to prevent that and to find a measure of stability and this is going on and this has different aspects to it.
one of the most immediate that we can see is that this could accounting general office in brazil. rejection of president gilman's accounts for last year. approvedccusation is by the tribunal and if congress like here, gao reports to congress, if that stands you would have it crime of responsibility to a cause for impeachment. remains tol judgment be seen but this seems to be the direction of this effort. of advancing talk the austerity measures and congress. part of this big agreement would be to create space to do it.
he has not been able to do as he wanted to advance austerity adjustment measures in fact the government just came up with something new which is we are not going to talk about fiscal adjustment now the name is restructuring. we will brand the thing to see if it flies -- rebrand the thing to see if it flies. will this give the president salvation? it could. i would not at this point bet on it. i think she does not bet on salvation at this point. much more has to happen. i think we have to continue to expect a lot of mobilization on all sides. a lot of noise especially if
acordon leads to efforts to undo the larger operation. septembere this in the former president putting together the acordon. they are both under petrobras-related criminal investigations. their sectors of the business community but the people investigating are really not very concerned that this is the present of the senate. this is a very popular ex-president of brazil. if they find facts there that would lead to indictments these people would be indicted. the director general said so much when he was asked whether president lula could be targeted
. he said we do not investigate people we investigate facts and we go where they lead us. asked i think it was president lula who said the ministry of justice had lost control of the federal police in brazil like in the united states were i believe the department of justice supervises the fbi in brazil the same happens. the gentleman, director of federal police in brazil said in fact the minister does not control the federal police. he has administrative responsibilities but we are controlled by the constitution. that is aght meaningful statement.
it shows the institutional change. another important fact in september. the chief federal prosecutor is he has justrmation been renominated to stay in that position and he is a key actor in this investigation and he is up for senate confirmation. confirmed.will be not confirming him would be a high political risk for the senate and the other people involved. i think he probably feels protected right public opinion in brazil. judge marcel, from
-- he is a federal judge. he has assisted the federal court of appeals with the president of the support. he will be the reviewer of the decisions by the federal judge who leads the investigation. what will he review? the me give you some numbers of him so far. there happened 18 phases of the investigation. it started in march of last year. been 400 76 -- 476 individuals and 16 companies under federal criminal litigations. among them the speaker of the pena, and the former president who is back as a senator.
143 people were accused of committing 31 different crimes. 105 were arrested. that is very in court and. including people we never thought were arrestable. traditionally prisons are for black people, poor people and prostitutes. there is diversity in the prison population. [laughter] 30 were found guilty and sentenced so far from a total of more than 225 years in jail combined. it is an important average if you think about this. even an united states, the average sentence for time served
for white-collar crimes in the night states of america is 18 months. there are dramatic cases of people who were in the camp for 25 years but the average is that. that have been indicted signed the bargain agreements with the prosecutors and the judge and are singing with more to come. been 3300 search and seizure orders executed in brazil. 53 requests of international cooperation made by the federal judiciary. according to the information produced by the investigations billion 200een 6 6,200,000,000 reals
recovered. let me go to the last observations here. at the opposition is divided about what to do. not only because the opposition inarticulate,and it doesn't have a clear leader with a political sway and lyrical mende. figure is theical foreign president cardoza. founding member of this institution the founding member
of the latin american program. cardozo has resisted calls for impeachment from his party for the peak in a president rousseff. saying impeachment is not a philosophical thing. the causes are described by the constitution of brazil. he was finally able yesterday to by callingtle bit -- pstber of the stb and they were able to abandon this by attending the cancellation of last year's election. it was not viable from the start because there is nothing particularly wrong with the way
the president was elected. but he says it was completely rigged with corruption. and has not been produced so it but after be pursued the rallies that took place sunday had about 800,000 people didhe streets the rallies not create new momentum for impeachment or anything of the sort but are very important. they kept the pressure on. there was enormous manifestations of support for the judge and the prosecutors for the first time you had little puppets of former president lula dressed as a prisoner. becauseally meaningful he was at one point the most
popular leader in brazil's history. cardozo will finalize his statement on monday. a very important statement. the most significant part of the demonstrations, such as the one that took place yesterday is the persistence of the popular sentiment that the government, albeit legal, is illegitimate. it is lacking a moral base that has been eroded by the -- anigans of similar to the methods of the doll dressed as a prisoner even cangh our president personally protect herself she suffers confrontations by the misdeeds and continually loses the ability to govern.
at this point, collusion behind closed doors is only increasing the negative reaction of citizens and does not return legitimacy to the government which is the acceptance of its right to command and lead. this is an important reference to the acordon that i just mentioned to you. if the president is able to make a gesture of greatness which would be to resign from office or frankly to admit that she pathmistakes and offer the to be taken for national recovery we will witness the growing this articulation of the government and congress. taking hits from the scandal. until a leader with moral strength and here he
luis gibanais did. as he addressed then the president. said your you think you are president but you know longer are. cardoomes from president so, a very experienced leader who has refrained and reprimanded people from his party from insisting on impeachment of president that so far has not been accused of committing any impeachable offense. but i think it is a very important element of this discussion and i wanted you to
.eave with this this statement obviously was widely distributed in brazil and we will continue to focus on this discussion. there is a problem in brazil that although the crisis and the manifestation of the crisis is economic it is a deep political crisis of a system that is slowly unraveling but it is unraveling and a way they can be productive. you are not going to see a rupture in brazil. economictive has to be stabilities. sustainable growth and i would say it won't happen if brazil in less they revise some
of the tenants of our system one of them, i don't think investor confidence in brazil will return if we don't start to open up our economy and if we do not use the lessons to improve corporate governance in brazil. i think those are the immense opportunities that we have and i think people are aware of that and there are people who do good work and all of those areas. businessmen research organizations etc.. paulo.k you very much, peter? anything to react to. peter: i would just like to say -- wow, i learned a lot.
what you have in brazil is huge uncertainty. unpredictability. almost anything that you here today in discussion -- is in discussion. there is no sure path out of this crisis or the corruption. think that a prediction will be sort of shifted and he said this earlier, what is in the news this morning -- we don't know because we are sitting here. -- there are so many things first the approval arengs of the president between 8% and 10% which is extraordinarily low, as we know. there is no indication that will change anytime soon. we have a president at that low
a level of approval so the foundations of government are very shaky. why there isis some protect ability to say i think brazil and the president are breathing easier today than they were before the demonstrations and a lot has happened in the past couple suggest a does slightly easier path for her but things could change very quickly. the economy really does remain in terrible shape. news are that the recession will last longer than had been protected yesterday. austerity program put in place by one of the most respected economists in brazil
across the political spectrum is really not working very well. reduction in the fiscal deficit of a percent and a half and is likely to be about zero now. the shaking of the economy, the uncertainty there creates enormous political uncertainty. and investors and business people are all waiting and watching and trying to figure out how you react to this. which i haven't mentioned yet, the corruption is going to keep spreading and spilling over into other countries of latin america. it is not only affecting petrobras but there are other huge government agencies involved and are member that petrobras was 10% of the brazilian economy.
that is huge. that's like the state of alifornia going into scandalous situation. this is a huge company and there is nothing like it in the united states as a part of the economy electrobras,have and half a dozen other bras "brases." -privatepublic partnership. there were other sectors that are probably involved and will be discovered. saying, not that it can't be solved and i don't want to sound pessimistic because there are reasons to see some glimmer of light but i think the emphasis at this point has to be
on unpredictability. havether problem that i with what we have heard and i will skip over a lot of the other stuff here is whether this is an institutional crisis or a governance and political crisis. have three branches of governance and brazil very similar in some ways and to of those -- two of those branches are in a bit of chaos now. turmoil might be the better word. the executive branch honestly the president with low approval ratings other members of the executive branch and other senior officials have been involved in this scandal or previous scandals. member that petrobras is a state
run oil company. it is not high officials running have anyou institutional crisis in the theidency and secondly, legislative branch which is seen theseewed by most -- scandals work because it is corrupt. and there you can also see the 29 parties in congress. the largest single party of the seatse 15% in the lower house so you need coalitions and these have to be crafted. there crafted by jobs and bribery and earmarks to the local constituencies.
let me add, if i think, lets say one. let me end on a positive note. more of aere is consensus on what has to be done in brazil. regardless of who is in the position. whether to impeach or not to impeach this more or less, settles down the economic row wildly-- program unpopular in brazil. one of the causes of the marches is probably a well thought supported byam business leaders and most of the political establishment. you have that. dilma is putting her weight
behind what weight is left. what has been said, the judicial system is showing its ability to move forward and the legislative and executive branches are not interfering. that of the other crises paulo mentioned and every other country, with the exception of chile. the prosecution of crimes is being stopped. they are not being investigated. the judicial system is working and the is something, legislative and executive are letting it work. finally, in other words, about.dy was screwing dilma made an early trip to the
united states. lot.id not accomplish a she established some channels. it does not mean a lot during the crisis now, but it might going forward a bit. also, regarding opening the economy and the need for reforming, in other words, there is a lot of positive language. there is a lot of different with support in this. there can be a consensus output. , i one thing i was a little wish would have been a little bit firmer. in other words, to say this is not the time for impeachment. unless there is some criminal activity discovered. he did not say that. in fact, he spoke about her resigning or apologizing.
, maybe thisk audience can think of, a leader that gets off and says i made all these mistakes for the past four years. here is the list of mistakes i have made and now i want to support me in the future. think of one leader that survived an apology like that. the party has been divided on this issue. that would be a very good sign to look for. thank you, peter. a lot of these issues, i have a number of questions. i am going to forgo that the cap we have about 40 minutes and i see a lot of people who have been following brazil and have a lot of questions. feel free to make comments.
you don't have to disguise them as questions. we will start with larry. please, tell us who you are. wait for the microphone and try to be as the size and the sink as you can -- please be as precise and succinct as u can. >> the trip to the united states that you alluded to, dilma met with various people in the silicon valley. we understood it was a successful trip to patch up disagreements between the two governments. despite the low approval ratings, what is the crisis? specifically, for the brazilian efforts to attract u.s. investors? >> let's go to margaret over here. i am a professor at
georgetown. you have talked about the economic crisis, but you haven't mentioned that this economic crisis generated because resulted not take advantage of the opportunity to diversify and invest in people. what kind of discussions, if any, are going on within the business community with the economists and so forth, as to structuralic changes need to be pursued in order not to go through the same thing all over again? >> yes. more, andet two
then back to the panel. >> it is a follow-up of the first question. abouthas been said yuma going down. what are the risks of remaining in power? are the risks of having a lame-duck president? specifically of the way the theican government sees government as a lame-duck president, can the -- can we do business with this government? >> we will have one more final question. >> i am with the executive intelligence review.
i will bring in reality. reality is actually very frightening right now. the daily telegraph from london that is useful and situating what we are discussing as a brazilian crisis. it is the doomsday clock for global crash strikes one minute to midnight as central banks lose control. i would add to that that we are one minute to midnight from a global confrontation with the united states, and russia and china. we are really discussing much is the well, if that context that we are discussing brazil. i would like to know if anybody has given consideration to a backlash -- i know there are nationally, if you want
to call it in brazil. this would be more in the industrial military. who viewse sector, the extent of this. i am probably mispronouncing. when the nuclear submarine project was gone after. as you said, this is every major brazilian private company as well. there are people very much who view this as a colored revolution. it is coming from foreign interests. that is something to be considered because that is a pretty strong thing, particularly given that brazil's china inussia and particular, have identified cultural revolution as strategic methods of irregular warfare. >> can we get to the question? >
>> that is it. i am commenting on the backlash. >> is go back to the panel and then we will have other questions. you want to react to some of those? >> yeah. economicect to the debate, i think there are two main issues being discussed. call it a consensus on what needs to be done. i think there is an understanding that the formula that worked in the past is not working anymore. we are reaching a crucial moment. scal.ey issues are fi we are facing a current in balance. when we talk about fiscal restructuring, it is more
structural than anything. constitution created mandatory spending. fact, there is a study by a well-known economist in brazil that was published recently and got traction because it shows not justoing on now is the mismanagement of the economy , it is a more structural facture. if nothing is done in terms of constitution reform, pensions, labor, etc., brazil means to create a new transaction tax every four years. int transaction tax retired 2007 and generated $50 billion a year. need to create that every four years to get the finances in order.
overall, there is a sense that the structure of entitlement and mandatory's ending needs to be addressed. -- mandatory spending needs to be addressed. there is no mandate to do that as of yet. that will be a challenge for this government, for who takes over, and the next couple governments. the second issue is actually improving relationships with the private sector. in brazil, we always prepare -- we always compare ourselves with italy. operation clean hands lasted two or three years. are italianss who and say it has not ended. escalated and was able to reach political sectors in italy. it created a political vacuum. in brazil, we don't think we face that risk. at the same time until he was
going through joining the euro, it created macroeconomic stability. we don't have that and brazil. at the same time, we do have the same factors and features that make brazil's politics dysfunctional and the cost of doing business with brazil high. high tax and logistics, etc. these challenge policymaking. remember the washington consensus in the 1990's. when you look at argentina, the pendulum that swings, from the yearsl 1990's to ten later. brazil will follow that same path, but moderately in the middle. the features of brazil's political system, a lot of them
make brazil look bad. it is part of the coalition. it is to the right of her. -- i am drawing this big picture because in the 1990's we follow the tenants of the washington consensus. 10 years they went to the left, a mild version of capitalism. i think now the pendulum is shifting back. brazil is a slow mover. the challenge for the next isernment, or even this one, showing signs of going the direction of opening up more. without that, nothing can be done. historically, when you have finance ministers in place in brazil, other ministries and policies tend to follow suit. priorities now are
fiscal, fiscal, and fiscal. comments have been made on trade. on opening up. that is the direction. those are the two key issues on the relationship with the private sector. i think it does create -- on the good side, as i said in my previous answer, it does increase the importance of the plans states for brazil's to restructure the economy and attract more investments. coalition,art of the but it is not a zero sum game. brazil has always been reluctant to join the groups. i do think on the one hand, i
creates incentives for talks with the u.s. on investments. creates aer hand, it near-term. there's not a lot you can do. problemslly, domestic tend to go outside because they face less restrictions. i don't see her doing that. inflection point in the brazilian political landscape. inflection point, the question is how steep is the curve? the risk of becoming a lame duck is that she will under deliver.
that is likely to be the case. there is not a major upside for brazil and the next three years. if she becomes a lame duck, and she might be one already, you ask about how people will see this, in terms of the relationship. it is nothing new. the dialogue continues. she made the effort to improve the relationship after the brazilian attempt to mediate. that was the lowest moment in brazilian diplomatic history. brazil lost a lot of credibility there.
i think, among the european nations, there was the sentiment. attempt the first effort. very sadshe came at a moment in her presidency. the channels are open. there is a lot of corporations in many different areas, including the judiciary. this is important. this is corporation. peopled people to cooperation. a lot of the federal prosecutors are people that graduated from american law schools and did
their masters degrees here. you know what i think about corporations in the united states and brazil. it is about cooperation between the two largest democracies in this hemisphere. think about that. will come ofwhat this. there are efforts, although the sensation of crisis is overwhelming. there is cooperation. the climate change conference in paris will take place. about tryinglking to formulate a position. this is not in the news, but it is happening.
people are not completely paralyzed and lost in the middle of the crisis. -- let me say another thing about the question. , they change the regulatory framework in order to explore. legislation in congress. to be in. they are good companies. think, the senator who proposed this other companies are paying an attention.
it does not need to be there. content in terms of exploration. it is changing as we speak. isis not that the system done. on this idea of the international context of this crisis. dilma said the other day that the crisis that is happening in brazil is really not dilma's fault. 2009, after the crisis that ,as a creation of this country that the global economy suffered for a well. we did not think it would affect brazil.
we were the last country to go into recession and the first to get out of it will stop remember that? that say the national crisis -- the international crisis will cause the brazilian crisis is weird. it is back. at the center of the crisis there is the united states. we have a free leader in brazil. they are trying to sell in brazil the idea that there is this enormous conspiracy that the crisis in brazil was something generated somewhere else. and that the chinese and russians and americans are really after to take us down.
think that's the public in brazil is changing. i don't think you can sell that story. a few placesyou to in brazil for that story would be very well received. probably at the rallies there tomorrow. have some friends that truly is outside ofigin brazil. we are very good and don't do anything wrong there. it has been tried before. actuallyural speech said, we have to beware of the external enemies. did you see any repercussions from that? i mentioned to you before plus peoplethe 400
are all brazilians. there is something between china, russia, and the united states than our problems are solved. then we don't have to worry anymore. >> peter, do you have anything to say? crisis.ack to the in other words, brazil was becoming very important internationally, regionally, economically. on all three accounts for the united states it is far less important today. its international influence, regional influence, importance is down to what happens internally. not what it does externally.
that includes opening to the external. >> it seems to me that brazil will take up less time and interest in the public and private spheres in the united states. second, the question regarding the economics. economic turmoil for brazil. brazil will lose 2% of its gdp this year. 5.5% in 2016. crisislost 7% after the in 2008-2009. argentina lost almost 15% of its income during the crises. this is not one of those deep, huge crises. this is a very difficult, sluggish.
period that has been compounded. it is not a cataclysmic crisis. brazil has recovered from much worst in the past -- much worse in the past. they will get the economy back in order. the question is the governance issue. dilma insk of having power is just one of those big uncertainties. it will be hard for her to bothn power, i think for the transition to another government, or keeping the seat will be the extent to which the political leadership, what ever we mean by that, begins to come to some sort of consensus. there begins to be more of a sense that now is the time for all good men and women to come to the aid of the country.
some of these conflicts, over ambition -- begin to see what is better for the future. >> dilma said that to the country? >> no. i said this is what has to happen. or the parties have to find some consensus to move out of this. that would be the best, whether it is a transition. so far, we have not really see that. >> give time for a few more questions. thomas? and a couple in the back. >> i am from george washington university. i would like to challenge the notion that there is all this uncertainty. there is a problem with liquidity. we don't know what is the menu decisionsmant's
for the issue of the economy. i agree with peter. recovered very well. the problem brazil has right now is that the economy, in the past 10-15 years is based on commodity. to expect first for the world economy to recover, particularly china? now that oil is down and the world demand for commodities is not there, what is the government doing in terms of changing the commodities model? that is part of the puzzle because otherwise, expectations carry uncertainty. a politicalve solution for that.
there is a mixing of problems there that really is not very clear. the fiscal problem is, but what is the economic problem. is the commodity dependence going to continue. or is there a political way to change the elements? >> behind you. you have been very patient. i am with the american health world organization. on the very important point of cooperation over like to say there is a sector, and executive branch that has a veritable program in place. it is working. isis ackley designed -- it .xactly designed to follow it will be published in 2013, where the biggest challenge was
sustaining basic health care. this has been accomplished with more and more national support. a proportion of doctors. sustainability. my point here is, how do we protect something that is working, that has expanding access? ebolae learned from the crisis, there is no escaping from building brazilian health systems. it has been built for 27 years and has continued to develop with a very good program. >> yes, sir. the times.m
what are his plans and prospects? >> hose a? ? >> this economic reception -- economic recession, how will it affect other latin american countries. the size of many latin american countries, one has to wonder? >> in the back. wait for the microphone please. >> i first became a brazil expert when i was writing telegrams. i have worked on brazil ever since. going back