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tv   Journalists Discuss Campaign 2016  CSPAN  November 2, 2016 12:35pm-1:21pm EDT

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actual genocide of christians in the middle east and no one has able to explain to me why, when we know we can screen them with 100% certainty and that they do not pose any danger to us, why are we not admitting the christians. i do not know if the senator can answer that question. if we can find places for refugees it would be more hospitable for them and safer for us. ms. benjamin: we are out of time. >> we should admit the christian refugees. if we did what donald trump did, no refugees -- ms. benjamin: senator, it is time for closing statements. the order was chosen randomly earlier today and you are up first. senator schumer: this is been a nice, lively, and fun debate. thank you very much. my linchpin, my wellspring is the middle class.
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that is been what i have fought for in my whole career. the middle class and people trying to get there. i came from a middle-class background and my dad was an exterminator. my parents worked hard to give their kids a better life and all i want is for every new yorker to have that opportunity. that is why i have worked so hard to create jobs here in new york and fight for jobs in every corner of the state. i am from brooklyn and sometimes i see that beautiful lady in the harbor with the torch. the torch that symbolizes to most americans and citizens of the world the american dream. if you ask the average new yorker or american what does this dream mean to you? they put it simply. they say, it means if i work hard i will be doing better 10 years from now and my kids will do better than me. if you elect me, citizens of new york, i will work every day to make that torch burn brighter.
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ms. long: he says this at the end of every debate and most other speeches he makes. he says he is fighting for the middle class. for the middle class he said the best is yet to come. the was six years ago problem is it has not happened. he invented an imaginary middle-class family because if you had to talk to a real middle-class family they would tell you they are not doing so well. people are really struggling with obamacare. the middle class is not doing cannot findct they jobs is not going well year
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after year you keep talking about the middle class. >> think both of you for joining us, that concludes our new york debate. thank you for participating. [applause] >> this has been a presentation of time warner cable news, new york 1, a special thanks to union college. [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2016] [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. visit] announcer: now we are live in the nation's capital for a discussion six days out of the presidential election and more. david rubenstein, will lead a discussion with a number of political reporters, mike allen, chris wallace, looks like it is about to start live coverage on c-span.
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>> can i have your attention for a moment? thank you, everybody please, quiet. thank you. i would like to first , the ambassador. the state senator from maryland is here, and the postmaster general megan brennan is here now. thank you all for coming, we will have a great discussion of who the next president will be and who will control the senate and who will control the house and get the answer at that ye in the of this. my elite it that immediate left chris wallace.
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he did a spectacular job of the moderator of the third debate. thank you. [applause] and we have now gloria borger, the chief political analyst for cnn and she has been at cnbc and cbs and new york news any probably see her many hours a day on cnn. [applause] and charlie cook who is the founder and editor of the cook and he knowsort every congressional district and can tell us who will win every congressional district and senate race. [applause] mike allen who is the chief political correspondent for politico and up until july was and he is of playbook
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widely recognized for his encyclopedic knowledge of politics and government and he has political socks on that he might show, can you explain these? [laughter] [applause] those as well if anybody wants to buy those? let's deal with the easy part. been no -- if there had been no action by fbi director comey last friday would you say this election was over? before the events of last friday would you have said the election was over for president? , because that: no is not what i do for a living. i certainly think there was a
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nevitt -- narrative and that was the conventional wisdom pre-friday was that hillary clinton had a solid, steady lead in the polls and especially in the electoral college and while i certainly would not have said it was over, i thought she had a distinct advantage in terms of the paths she had to getting 270 electoral votes. i think i would she said -- would've said you was a clear favorite. gloria: i would not have said it was over because it ain't over till it's over. i would have said that she had a glide past and the narrative before last friday was that hillary clinton probably had her 270 and was just trying to rack up the numbers to have an impressive win and help the candidates down ballot and make sure she got a democratic senate along with her. the shape of the race was completely different. david: was it over before last
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friday? fish -- how about over how about over-ish? they look like the bottom was starting to fall out for a lot of house and senate republican candidates and then i think it kind of confirmed backup and friday through everything back it isthe air so that now possible for donald trump to win, but i think it is still pretty hard. i think things have changed a lot less in the last week than the conventional wisdom is. david: before the events of last friday would you say the election was over? mike: the biggest change is that it gave new wind to republican senate candidates. until then the first question any republican senate candidate was asked was about donald
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trump, now it is not and that is a tremendous advantage for them. david: today would you say it is not impossible and it might be realistic to think donald trump could win the election? chris: absolutely. i still think you have to say she has an easier path to 270 than he does and maybe we can get into the numbers later, but it is changed and you look at the polls where he was behind by 8-10 points and is now behind by 3-4. trackingave the abc poll which yesterday showed a one-point lead and today shows it at a flat-footed tie. say from my experience covering politics there is nothing that can move faster than a political campaign where the tide is changing. david: the think donald trump has a chance of winning this?
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gloria: i do. this race, if nothing else has and volatile and swings there are a few are number of persuadable voters left. some people say 6%, 7%, i say the number is probably smaller than that. i do believe that donald trump right now is doing something we have not seen before witches onying -- which is staying message and he has a simple message about hillary clinton and has given his republican candidates something they can cheerfully talk about, which is running against hillary clinton. for the first time in the campaign, they are singing from the same songbook and that will help him. will it be enough? does hillary clinton have some old in advantages in this electoral college? yes, she does. he has to find blue states to flip and he is looking for them and he is looking in states like
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wisconsin, states like michigan, and at this point overnight as howard banker is to say, overnight is a lifetime in politics. and i believe in this race more than any other is true. david: he is doing something else very smart in his messaging, not just about youton and the fbi emails, saw him making a big pitch in terms of obamacare and in terms of trade and undoing nafta and those are the kind of issues particularly with yesterday as open a roman started for a bombing -- open enrollment started with obamacare and huge increases in deductibles. david: kent donald trump when this election -- can donald trump win this election? charlie: i think because they have these messages, the high
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floor and low season -- there is a better chance of donald -- hillary clinton hitting 300 and donald trump hitting 270. mike: there is no doubt republicans have a new spring in their step. republicans at the top would still tell you it would be very difficult based on the infrastructure of the ground game, the get out the vote they have in the states and early voting which makes such a difference. we were chatting backstage about how roughly 25% of the people you expect to vote have voted 40% of people brooklyn expects will vote -- it is just a tiny step that reminds you of the importance of that in what a science there is now. john mccain in his primary lost in votes cast on election day, he had banked his win before -- that is what brooklyn is counting on doing now. >> i did not realize this until
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last night when i saw it on someone's show. gloria: cnn. david: cnn. change your vote after you voted early. can you change your vote for three or four years ago? [laughter] remorse does not go back three or four years. david: does a concierge go in and take your ballot and you can change it? gloria: for you it might be concierge. [laughter] [applause] gloria: the state of pennsylvania does not have early voting, but it has absentee voting. if you decide you cast the wrong way, my understanding is you can go into a polling place on election day and say, so you do say i castice, and an absentee ballot but can you avoid it and i would like to cast another ballot and donald
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trump, as you saw, has been talking about in states where people have voted early you can change your vote. >> they really have the ability to go and find your ballot? states. only four david: you prepared for the debate obviously very well. did you tell anybody the questions in advanced? [laughter] >> only a colleague from cnn, but i knew it would be safe with her. david: the you actually have to show the questions to someone else? do you prepare them yourself or do you have people helping you? it is funny you are asking these questions and you did not tell me you are going to ask them.
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brown, call from janet the executive director of the commission on presidential debates and she says, you are going to do the last debate and i knew i was going to come up with the questions and she set about a week ahead of time you have to tell us and we will tell the campaigns what the topics will be. it would be six subject areas, 15 minutes each, and i said, well who comes up with those and she says, you do and i am like, holy. i did not know how it was run. it was totally my research on fox news on sunday we came up with all the topics and the questions ourselves. we ended up -- it was almost like a scene out of oceans 11 and i had set up computers with my staff and as we were going and completely reworking the
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questions every day -- i would take the questions and we would rip them up and like, now what do we do with them because we did not have a shredder. we literally stuck them in a laundry bag in the back of the closet thinking nobody would look at that and any time i left i had this book with my topics and you know the wall safe, i would stick it in the wall safe and lock it up so it was never available. david: what is the key to keeping them from talking over you in these debates? chris: i will to you one quick story. i have prepared to a tremendous degree the questions for each of the topics and i even had a cheat sheet on each of them with sort of data points for each not say that, no i did that, that number is wrong, i would be able to cite a number. the day before the commission said why don't we take you to the venue and you can work out which is very
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interesting because anybody who has been there in person knows it is infinitely smaller than it looks on tv. from corner to corner are a half feet apart, so they are really in each other's faces and you are close to them and they have -- they got to students and we did a practice debate and the subject was what is your favorite movie? i said two minutes secretary clinton and the woman doing that did the two most persuasive minutes i have ever heard about why "shawshank redemption" was the greatest movie ever made. she talked about cinematography and the script and she even quoted it and she did not know i was going to ask the question. and i went to donald trump and in a trump-like way he said :jango: unchanged -- django
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unchanged." i realize for all of my the incoming, when you were going to interrupt would make or break the day. gloria: can i say something about the importance of these debates? i was speaking with some republicans who are very involved in running the republican senate campaign committee and people who are doing analytics for republicans and what they said to me was after the first debate -- i said "what were the turning point in the election? " and i presumed they would say the access hollywood video tape or the gold star controversy after the democratic convention. i assumed that would be it. both of these folks unprompted said the first debate. i don't know if you saw that a what you are looking at, but they said the first -- before the first debate someone said to
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me we gave donald trump a 55% chance of winning and after the first debate it was cut in half. i do not know if you saw that in the stuff you look at. >> -- poisoned among the slight people between the 245 yard line. david: in hindsight, what to the other candidates have done to beat donald trump and why were they unable to bring out his negatives? me, jeb bush, marco rubio, and even chris christie there was no reason to do this because they were fishing in a different .ond of both -- voters but question is why didn't ted cruz, who was fishing in the same pond for the same group of voters, why weren't they dishing all this stuff out -- not do it personally, but dishing it out to the news media week he
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would've been the beneficiary of donald trump collapsing. those people were not going to go to jeb bush or marco rubio or john kasich or chris christie. david: don't you think the common problem is they all trump to take donald seriously enough early enough and they thought they could get away and he would collapse on his own? gloria: they did not want to alienate the trunk supporters -- donald trump supporters. charlie: the turning point for me was before the primary win ted cruz still had a real chance of beating him and why they did not drop the hammer -- i do not think they would have found all of these women, but they could have found enough stuff that i think would have -- mike: there was a failure of imagination. so many people in this room or maybe on this stage did not think they had to kill him. this is the idea that you need to drop an anvil on their neck.
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they could not give him oxygen. the second thing is, they were just afraid. none of them wanted him to go after them. i did an interview with newt gingrich, politico has a series and i did a video interview and he said that in a debate donald trump is like the bear in "revenant." [laughter] he will get you. marco rubio is leonardo dicaprio? andhe said yes, exactly they just did not want to go up against the bear. >> you could send an unmarked envelope to the new york times -- you do not have to have your fingerprints on it? gloria: they were too busy attacking each other. the incoming was flying over donald trump head because they were too busy attacking each other. david: why is he always in the
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center? theia: he was leading in polls, that person is always in the center and the person left is that the end. as i recall the debate where chris christie finished off marco rubio. >> suicide bomber. gloria: that was a sacrifice fly i was going to say, he did it and nobody else had to and i think they were all just waiting. >> there is a great story that marco rubio said to chris iristie before the debate hear your coming after me and chris christie allegedly said you have no idea. david: why did ted cruz not endorse donald trump and then later did endorse him? what was the thinking behind not endorsing and then later endorsing him? so.ust the i told you
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assuming donald trump was going to lose and collapse and say i told you so and then when it are to getting closer and closer and he is thinking about 2020 he decided to do it and i bet he wished he did another week or so until after the first debate and that he would have not done that. david: for the presidential campaign today, what states do you think will be most surprising on election night? which state would you say would be the biggest surprises? it is going to be a surprise, so we do not know. chris: i would say people looking early, florida will be a big indicator. if donald trump loses florida, either 8:00 or 9:00 when the polls close in the western half of the state. if he loses florida it is over. there is no way he will get to 270. we could belorida
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headed for a significant night and the butterfly ballots are gone. gloria: they are gone. david: what you think will be a big surprise? gloria: i am not sure. i am going to look at wisconsin. you have seen donald trump say he believes it is in play. -- andublicans believe this is interesting because there is such a diversity of opinion between republicans and democrats. democrats say colorado is not in play, republicans say they have it at a point or two. i have no idea. democrats just went up with ads there. gloria: we have new pulling out today -- >> breaking news. gloria: which shows donald trump in nevada and up in arizona, clinton up in pennsylvania only by four point.
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she has been up in pennsylvania by double digits and florida is almost a dead heat as florida almost is. david: let me ask you about bernie sanders for a moment. he said it famously in the first debate "i do not give a damn about your emails." or something to that effect. was that a mistake? chris: i think it was a mistake and he could've made it more -- i just wonder into end if whether a 74-year-old independent socialist from vermont was ever going to beat hillary clinton. david: that is a good point. [laughter] close he camew with all of those disadvantages. chris: he did not, all of that close because of the superdelegates. david: normally if you have somebody who is not in a major party and he does so well, why
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did he choose to run -- why did he not choose to run a third-party? he wanteddo not think to hand the election to donald trump and i think that is what he thought it would do. obviously the third arctic and it now does not feel this way even though his running mate i believe went on msnbc -- bill weld said, let me make the case for hillary clinton. christie is saying he was offered the vice presidency in the last minute and donald trump got talked out of it. is there any proof? >> there is a great story he was leaning in the direction of chris christie and then paul youfort manufactured -- if remember donald trump was in indiana and paul manafort made up the fact the plane was broken so donald trump would have to stay in indianapolis for one more day which gave mike pence another chance to make the
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pitch. second to time in kaine for vice president or was he always the first choice? >> he was, tim kaine was so perfect and it was because he was a governing choice. he happened to bring virginia with him, but secretary clinton who has seen the vice presidency she up close so many times knew it was a governing pic and someone who would be effective. >> this was a very safe, solid pick. david: can i give you one data point? it is my favorite statistic in this tells you why we are all talking about hillary having so much of an advantage built in structurally in the electoral now. if you go back and look, there are 18 states in the district of columbia which have voted six elections in a row for the democrat all the way back from 1992 through clinton's those
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collections and bush's two elections and obama's two elections. if she holds onto what has voted democrat every time since 1992, win.nly needs 22 more to flip it to republicans, 13 states have voted republican six elections in a row, 102 electoral votes. she starts off with this enormous event, that does not include states like florida or ohio or north carolina or virginia or a variety of states that have voted, but she starts with a huge structural advantage. gloria: you were talking earlier omeyt the impact of the c news last friday. one thing i am looking at is this question of enthusiasm among clinton supporters week as we had seen before director comey that the enthusiasm -- donald trump's voters have always been more enthusiastic
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about voting or him then hillary clinton's were about voting for her. that number was starting to andl out towards last week then came director comey and what you saw in some of the tracking polling. i try not to look too much at daily tracking polling because it gives me anxiety for these things to shift 10 points in a day, they are not very dependable, but you do see over a period of time now, which is days, that her enthusiasm numbers tend to be shifting down . the question that i then ask is will that mean that some voters pox onay home who say a both of your houses so will that suppress her turn out and will be moree his turn out enthusiastic. we do not know the answer to that, but i think we ought to be looking. mike: i was meeting before lunch
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ath mike to bits and sort of glass half full for clinton voters as now they are nervous and you will not have the complacency they did. turnout can flip both ways. one reason i know charlie you spoke to a bunch of republican pollsters, one thing that makes aboutervous is discussed emails -- a voter that stays home is a suburban, educated higher income voter, that would be a ticket splitter, it would be hillary clinton and kelly ayotte in new hampshire. there is some worry about that and even though there is the blue wall chris was talking about, there is so much more nervousness in brooklyn and among clinton voters for 500
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days top hillary clinton voters, number of them in this room have been calling me and my colleagues and saying things are not fine. they would be calling us and telling us "tell us things are fine." david: when you do a national poll you need how many people to make it statistically significant? >> 700-800, start with a base. whod: do they call people have stationary telephones, land lines come or people with cell phones and how to get people who did not really have telephones? charlie: the better pollsters and the national namebrand pollsters are calling a mix. it could be as much as half cell phones. the problem is caller id, the response rate. it is a generation because somebody calls you up and says -- asks your opinion about politics and you felt empowered and flattered, today it is who
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is interrupting my dinner? the way i would look at it is a live person calling is always better than an online or robo call and a standalone poll is always better than a tracking 3-4 because they can do the callbacks over a couple of days to get the primary person. the problem with this -- it is a good thing to look at averages, but the problem with averages is it turns polls into a commodity and treats them alike. some of these are junk. some of them i have to look up and see who the hell is this pollster. david: on the day of the election the news media often gets exit polls and when you go on tv you are supposed to know -- pretend you do not know the outcome. gloria: we do not, we look at the exit polls and they give an indication on how certain questions are being answered, but we do not really know the
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outcome. i remember when john kerry ran and the exit polls were wrong. >> they are not that accurate. after the election they are used for speech material to make the points you want to make. frome that you do not know time magazine the week before who is going to win, and exit poll one not tell you. david: the election is over tomorrow and let's suppose hillary clinton wins, what would you say would be the turning point for her as you look act over the last year for her to have won this election? gloria: i would say the first debate. david: what would you say would be the turning point for her? >> i would say the nomination of donald trump. [laughter] [applause] david: what would you say? same thing? >> i cannot top that. david: suppose donald trump were to win, what would you say was the turning point for him? and could be a smart ass
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say the election of hillary clinton and certainly the comey announcement. david: the senate needs to pick up four seats to control the senate, what you think that is the likelihood? schumer -- senator schumer -- until a week ago it seemed very likely than we were told that someone had even told them republicans could lose every close race. now we could go on monday that is not the case. --is completely on the cusp there are three ways because it is very possible there could be a 50-50 senate where the tie is broken to vice president kaine
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for vice president pence. david: who will win the new hampshire senate seat? mike: flip it up in the air, it is that close. david: pennsylvania. toomey is a better candidate, but pennsylvania is not illinois or wisconsin. david: illinois is over, zoe you are saying? wisconsin, over. what about florida? charlie: marco rubio by four points. david: nevada. charlie: a week and a half then i would say republican, now i would say maybe not. david: north carolina? gloria: hard. turley: that is the one republicans are frustrated with because remember the old record player that would get 78 rpm and then 45 and then 17.5 and that
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is richard burr. [laughter] [applause] charlie: he is slow to organize and raise money and he is doing it the way he has always done it and if republic -- republicans want to pull their hair out. david: what about missouri? gloria: that is a tough one. charlie: that is a tough one. donald trump was running against evan in indiana and blunt in missouri. david: what about indiana? charlie: i think it will be close. absent the top of the ticket, republicans would easily have a return of the majority. gloria: one other thing to add on that and it applies to house races, i have never seen a presidential race where you do not have on a stage all of the
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candidates that are running when comesesidential nominee to town and they are all holding their hand up together and saying, let's vote for this ticket with our presidential nominee at the top and let's support kelly ayotte and they are doing that with mike pence to a degree, but you do not have that picture in this race >>. good point, hillary clinton has so many surrogates out there -- gloria: 500. david: who is her most effective surrogate? >> michelle. gloria: michelle obama. david: and he was donald trump's most effective surrogate? gloria: mike pence. david: republicans have a 38 seat leadership -- >> 30 seats. david: what you think is the likely outcome of the house?
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13,lie: republicans lose 14, 15 seats. it was 5-10, 10-15, think people have dialed back from 20. either way you will have a weakened paul ryan because the republicans that lose our ryan-ish republicans. david: in the house or senate what you think would be the biggest surprise? we are seeing so much polling that these out of the blue senate races do not happen so much. whenhing worth noting is you get down to the left-hand full of races, they never split down the middle, they overwhelmingly go one way or the other, whatever the last gust of wind pushed the ones on the knife edge one way or the other. david: let's suppose donald trump loses, will he secede?
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>> i asked him that question. [laughter] chris: i think it depends. gloria: that is what he said. [laughter] [applause] or -- if it is 2000, 5500 in florida. if it is millions of votes and dozens of electoral votes i think he will. gloria: i think it depends what they see out there. states have automatic recount rules. the state of florida, if the margin is less than .5%, you go to automatic recount. say that were to occur in the state of florida, but donald trump had lost so many electoral votes that florida will -- were to become irrelevant, then he probably would not do it. chris: you think he would concede? would recountk he
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florida, but i think if there were no shot of him winning the presidency and everything were fair everywhere else, why should he? i think donald trump put everyone on notice particularly in answering your question that he is not going to say that right now. think we areot going to hear anything that any of us would consider to be a normal concession. [laughter] >> the thing is, nowadays nobody ever loses. you win or you were cheated and i think it is an extension of every kid getting a trophy. gloria: you mean an effort grade? >> i think what ever happens he will say it is a precise indication of whatever he has been saying. >> the best single speech in the campaign delivered by whom when? gloria: i think it was michelle obama's speech -- it was her
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speech which was aimed at women voters and younger women in the accessafter hollywood tape came out. -- gaveho cave the most the most disappointing speech you thought really fell flat on its face? >> ted cruz's speech at the convention. david: let's suppose hillary clinton wins. who would be the presumptive lead candidate for the republicans in 2020? would it be pence or cruz? mike: it will be somebody not involved in this mess. i think the people involved are so badly splattered, i would it rather be senator top scott -- senator tom cotton of arkansas, nikki haley, i would rather be somebody not a metal of this. >> i would eventually wanted to
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be someone who wasn't, but off the block i would say mike pence. in the end you may very well be right. gloria: the question is what has all of this done for paul ryan? this is a big question for republicans. i think you have the speaker of the house who eventually endorsed the candidate, but cannot say his name. he talks about donald trump as the nominee, and he is a very difficult time -- vol rd baltimore -- lord demort. [laughter] >> right. david: let's suppose donald trump wins, who was the leader of the democratic party going forward? chris: that is a good question and one of the reasons you did not have much of a primary race on democratic is there is not a very deep bench.
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he could say andrew cuomo or something like that, but not a bunch of names that spring to mind. i would say schumer is going to come out of this as the presumptive leader of the party. david: presidential? chris: i think we have to wait and see, but i think paul ryan has to make a decision if he wants to be a part of governing or run for the republican nomination and i think he will decide to govern and house republicans -- i think the senate will be more functional with a mitch mcconnell, chuck schumer relationship as opposed to with harry reid. on the republican side, house republicans have to decide do they want a legislator or investigate come i think half of them will want to investigate and ryan would lather legislate. david: would the supreme court nominee that president obama's proposed the approved a lame-duck and would tpp be a
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lame duck? chris: i think you have a lot of republicans saying they will stand firm. with hillary clinton as the president elect, merrick garland looks pretty moderate. think merrick garland, i never thought i would say this , but i think he has a better shot of getting confirmed in that scenario. tpp i don't think -- david: had he think the press and media will cover the next election differently than they covered this one? do you think they learned anything they can improve upon or do you think they did a great job and do not need to make changes? [laughter] gloria: i will let you take that. chris: i think we will make mistakes, but make different ones. i think the media cannot do a worse job than this year. i really believe that. [applause]
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charlie: i think early on basically cable news handed over their airwaves the donald trump and then begrudgingly added bernie sanders and hillary, so they gave him a free ride for a long time and maybe were not as aggressive in hoping to feed to the fire during the primaries and debates as they should have. in the last month or so it is dike watching a badly referee basketball game where we see makeup calls and particularly print -- i am not a donald trump defending at all, but going after donald trump in ways i think violate every candidate ethics for news reporting and i completely agree with that. >> just look at the additives in the news stories in "the new york times was quote or "the washington post." one today talked about donald trump "lurching."


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