tv Smithsonian Associates Hosts Discussion on the 2016 Election CSPAN November 10, 2016 8:06pm-8:39pm EST
>> it is a great question. w, part of the theory of building a new hillary coalition that would be slightly different from the obama coalition was to h hispanicwell wit voters. and those voters really matter in nevada. and they turned out at a very high level and at a very high level for her. some organizedy, through their labor unions they along to. but in the states you mentioned, michigan and wisconsin, hispanics represented a much smaller part of the vote. put some information together the other day about the lower turnout in some key democratic counties and states like that.
so, the composition of the -- nevada electorate worked very much in her advantage in a way that was not true and those other states. >> i think one thing to remember, blue states are only blue states until they are not anymore. voila, states -- and what we saw was the beginning of a change in the map of a lot of folks who work a lot of data and new polling, what was going to happen. it just happened faster than we expected this election. they expected democrats like hillary clinton to do better with latino voters, making inroads in places like nevada. be able to make places like arizona competitive or maybe republicans appealing more to white voters and begin to make more inroads in places like wisconsin and michigan. i don't think anyone expected it to happen this quickly. and with such a break from the
data we were seeing publicly. >> go ahead. >> so, several members of congress, including republicans, have expressed doubts that will -- will.t trump what is the feeling on how his base will respond to some of those goals not being achieved. the ability to forgive him quickly will extend into his administration? >> yes. i do think that. i do think that ability will extend, because when you talk to people, specifically about a lot of these goals, they will say, people have told me,we know he is not going to deport everyone here illegally. we nkow he is not really going to ban muslims from coming to the u.s. we're angry and he is filtering that anger. and this is of the people have said over and over again. he is a negotiator in your new starting point. and he is going to make it feel
like this is his starting point in that negotiation. i think one of the things that will be interesting looking on capitol hill is who he works with to get these things done, like some of the things that donald trump is talking about are not pillars of republican ideology. so, it's possible we see, you know, if he wants to be an effective president, will we see him siding with democrats on some issues, siding republicans on other issues? >> that is something republicans on capitol hill are already raising with me today. we're really interested to know actually whether donald trump is willing to have a conversation with elizabeth warren. you read what bernie sanders said in his words, he is going to use racist, misogynist policies. butve no interest in that, if you want to do something that is going to help working and middle america, then ok. i will work with the guy. >> let's go somebody in the back.
the gentleman in the middle. >> can you repeat the questions because we are not hearing them? to what extent do voter i.d. laws reduce voting times, have any impact on the results of this election? has any research been done into that yet? >> how much do voter i.d. laws and other voter suppression efforts have an impact on the election? anybody? >> we think they have a substantial impact in north carolina in reducing the african-american vote. you have seen the pictures of the long lines tat polling places. when you set out in a deliberate way to make it harder for people to voter, it is not shocking that fewer people end up voting. somehe courts mitigated most blatantly
racial parts of the north carolina voting law, but not all of them. not things related to voting hours and access to polling places. those things matter. they were done with the intent and the intent was accomplished. >> did it determine what happened in the state? >> that you have a governor's carolinain north where the democrat is ahead by 4000 votes. it was 4000. if it ends up going the other way, it clearly would have mattered. >> the gentleman in centerfield back there. >> you talked a lot about -- is.p voter and who he who is the clinton voter? they are slightly more. >> the question is who is the clinton voter?
who turned out for her? >> as you heard, she did better with women. there tended to be more female, better educated. >> a lot better. if you pull the numbers from postgraduates, it is stunning. >> did anyone in this room vote for donald trump? one. two. anyone else? >> that is the shy trump effect. >> you all are hillary clinton voters. [inaudible] >> i don't vote in elections that i cover. that i think you just answered your own question, because the country is so divided and so -- that question was pew who did the work on whether you had a friend, you knew somebody who voted for donald trump or you knew somebody who voted for hillary clinton. hillary clinton won people who live in cities, won people of
color won people who are well educated, she won the kind of people you come across every day. and this is a particular kind, and you walk into hispanic community, it is little bit different. potentially, this is -- so there's a difference there. i just cannot overstate the degree to which people who voted for hillary clinton and who assumed and thought there was no way she could never end up president of the united states different in their outlook and the people they were talking to and surrounding themselves with than the people who voted for donald trump. >> it does make me wonder of those democrats that did not state home, how many state home because it was unfathomable that donald trump would win. >> you think unfathomable to the clinton campaign. flying on the plane for three days having a party. >> there was a couple of weeks, a couple months before the
election, the late-night shows -- you cannot imagine a donna trump presidency? did you ask everyone in your yoga class? you know. we live in our own bubbles. our bubbles do not look like the american electric writ large. danger that this divisiveness and lack of understanding between those two groups. >> [inaudible] >> -- the children's health care plan. law enforcement and many think she did, and yet you barely heard them on her advertising or in her speeches. unemployment, went from 10% down to 4.8%. while most people i think in the rust belt think it is 40% and
worse. ie, if she highlighted that, thought she might have done better. >> a lot of people in the rust belt feel it in their lives in this negative weight, independent of the numbers. there is always controversy about that on employment rate. underemployment, people do not look for jobs anymore. a lot of people you are describing, yeah, they pay attention to the positive trump people,e that did not reflect them. they must've felt the elite world does not understand them because it does not reflect their lives. i come from a working-class background myself. it's very rare in the editorial meetings in washington, these days, i must say. that is part of the diversity we need in the media. right. but the, i think a lot of people
have not been living those unemployment numbers below 5%. and i think that is a problem that the hillary campaign did not address properly. >> income has trended down since the end of the recession. there's good numbers and not so good numbers. it's not like income has been up by five point. >> she did run a number. her advertising was a pretty good mix of positive and negative ads. she had some very good positive ads. the difference between her two minute closing ads and donald minute adlosing two was night and day. literally, hers was quite hopeful and positive. his was really quite dark in terms of its view of the world. in terms of her, i'm interested in what sarah has to say.
it isms of her speeches, very hard to communicate a positive message in this environment and this media environment, in particular. do you think that is true? it'sthink it is true that' hard to convey, but i don't thin k hillary clinton was running' campaign. i do not think donald trump was running a positive campaign. -it's hard. it was difficult for her to run on the legacy of barack obama. entity out there and -- and to b e out there, the positive things you want to say is the economy is getting better. people are not feeling that. >> we have some people in the balcony. the lights are in my eyes. i can't point to you. you will have to sort it out yourselves. let's go to the balcony.
>> my question is this, first of all, let's face it, two identical products, one caught -- one cost $24, i think we itld all buy the $12 one, if comes from china or somewhere else. we will always buy the lower-priced products if all other things are equal. my questions are this. youdo you -- what do account for the fact that polls were so wrong, number one? and number two, do you think it was a good idea for hillary to switch towards the end of the campaign to advertise more the instead ofes spending more and her campaign as president? >> i think we all heard that question. think the polls
were? >> the last two days have been very bad. >> i have a not popular point of view on this. i wills that jeff and keep our clients because our private polling was correct. and helped direct the campaign. and i think what people understand, and let me speak up for nate silver. when nate silver, his final prediction, he says there is a 30% donald trump can win. she's three points ahead. last fourhree of the elections, the last result has been three points different than the last track. three points is a blink. what he said is it was this guy because either it was tied, three points better or the person or one to three points better and no one noticed. the reason there was this meltdown is because people said,
my gosh, everyone said clinton is going to win. how could trump win? let me give you -- i gave you my small example. she is three points ahead. you carry white, noncollege byers than 10 more points -- 10 more points and win by more than ronald reagan and that is 3%, 10% more, 3.4%. it's tied. and polls by the way, i 'm sorry, polls are not graded so aying i know for sure that there will be higher turnout in these areas. and even by the way, all these analytics. phone calls.00,000 they are not that great down to one or two point, couple points level. so, what i am suggesting is there is, i understand, i also understand, believe me i'm getting it, i understand all across america people are saying the polls were all wrong. i just think if you do this for
a living, the internal clients in each campaign were not shot. i do not have jeff's poll. but i had a poll in michigan four days out that had trump ahead. my client said, that cannot be right. i said, guess what you paid for one poll. she's in detroit on friday. if my poll is wrong, what is she doing in detroit on friday? i said the reason you should believe -- there is something big going on in michigan. and this poll picked it up, because the people that run the race with more money than god are putting her in michigan on friday, and detroit. that is telling me this poll is correct. >> their numbers are usually not necessarily better than public polling, but the polling you guys see every day in newspapers and on tv, there tends to be a ag because news organizations are not doing a
day-to-day, they're not spending the kind of money that the campaign are doing, minute by minute. but they do different kinds, tracking phones. a lot of times, that is why often will just survey people like jeff and people that work around him to say, what you guys seen? because i think your point is very much taken. in the last couple days, it can actually move. if you're not paying attention at tha tmoment, you are not going to see it. >> the other part about the public polling and the network polls, the networks are paying for them. they are going to give them a tremendous ride. and it is going to look like the most fabulous moment in the campaign history because they are paying for them. these two guys. >> >bill has done great work for nbc news. >> that poll is hillary clinton by three or four points. i can say lots of good things, how that poll's constructed and i can also say here that, hey,
guess what? it did not lead to the expectations people want. for people were getting our briefing. we were doing a pretty good job saying yes, here is what happened. yes,t i think, i mean, there were is -- there were misses on state-level polling. >> wisconsin. >> north carolina? some of these polls should have shown donald trump ahead. if you assume -- >> north carolina was -4 for clinton. >> ok, but here, we took, our firm did something different. the real clear politics averages all the polls within two or three weeks. we said, we will take the last week of polls. we compared the margins from the last weeks of polls in these states compared to what really happened. every state was margin of error except for wisconsin and north carolina. and so, again, what i am saying
is if you actually take a moment, let me drop the ones old.are two or three weeks look at the last week, that even at the state level from all of the public polling, but here is what happens. the margin of error is, wow, she's been ahead for weeks in florida. at the last public poll she is plus one? and then it becomes, she lost by three. you can't melt down -- >> let me -- let jeff that the last word. i think we are out of time. >> well, the second part of the question was campaigning for senate candidates. i, working for a lot of senate candidates, i have appreciated the effort, but in campaigns you can't look like you are taking a victory lap. you have to run through the tape, the voters have to see you run to the tape, especially in this kind of election. the-- you know, it sent
wrong vibe for a lot of voters. and the truth is, after the comey letter, they had to change that anyway. >> let's do two more. the fellow over there in the blue? 942.cal i do know a lot of people who voted for trump. and a lot of people who said i was going to vote for bernie sanders but since he is not in the race i'm voting for trump. why doesn't the democratic establishment get it? president obama is up there earlier this year saying we have got -- this country is not in decline. he said, it is a wonderful time to be young. there is all of this opportunity. and i am looking at massive segments in a country that are working at or near minimum wage. they've been in constant decline since the 1970's. these chickens are coming home to roost since the 1970's.
at mental age, to buy -- at minimal age to buy a car, compared to 1970's, it is three times more expensive. these people in upstate new york, had 60% wage cut. they're running like mice on wheels, going faster and faster. they're getting further and further behind. it just can't go on like this. i don't understand -- why the democratic establishing couldn't get this. i'm a lifelong democrat. >> anybody want to address that? i totally agree. it was what it was trying to say in a less articulate way about what our challenge is as a party going forward is giving hope to people who are experiencing not just feeling those things but experiencing those things -- we to not just have a message but a set of policies for people who are struggling to stay in whomiddle class, who don't,
think it is impossible for their kids to be in the middle class. who find it, who think their aspiration to rise into the middle class is at a dead end. um, the one thing is that when you have the office for 8 years, you can't just say, you can't -- you know, act as if the 8 years didn't exist. you have to be able to say something about your record, and if you are the person who held that office, you want desperately to do that. so, that, you know, i think president obama was always careful to say we have much further to go.when you save the economy from a real disaster, that is what we were facing in 2008, you would like a little credit for that. and so, it is not shocking that president obama took some.
and he deserves some. but that led to a very kind of confused, schizophrenic message. >> we have time for one more. yeah, go ahead. >> if this election is about anything -- it's -- in that regard, perhaps gerrymandering covers some of that ground. what would it take to connect the dots of this pernicious, they did to us, we're going to do it to them. in fact, most people think it started with governor gary in massachusetts. it was first done by patrick henry in the fifth district of virginia. anyway, i worked that campaign. [laughter] north carolina, ohio, pennsylvania and how -- in the statehouses. and what would it take, many experienced people say this is the secret sauce of modern
politics. >> you mean the safe districts that never change? and what itistrict is doing to statehouses. our last round of answers. >> this is another topic in which i have a lot of information and a strong opinion, which is that if what's happened in congress is most members of congress can only lose in a primary. what happens is you wake up as an elected official and you say, oops, i have to stay close to my party's base. i believe if we had state supreme court round the country maps,ch state drawn instead of having 90 competitive districts, we would have 240. these men and women wake up and say, yikes, i could lose my
district. i have worked with a lot of different members of congress. the members of congress and one of those swing states have a political antenna were every day they're going like this. the men and women i work with in safe seatsusually plain white cs and never have had to do that. it is an unfair system that polarization, and we have unfair seats. democrats last year. you can look at the two-party vote cast, and republicans are getting a list of three to five more seats, percent for the vote. i don't cry for that because 30, 40 years ago, it was seven points. you have got to change the system, but why it does not happen, the one thing both members of congress feel and every party does, they will take the current system. i have got a better shot at a safe seat.
if you try new initiatives, this is the ultimate process, and they are hard to mobilize. i worked for the california initiative to change the primary system, because i believe our country with state supreme court drawn districts would be fairer and more competitive, instantly and fundamentally change the political rewards culture in a way that would produce a radically different outcome. >> [indiscernible] bill mcinturff: i am just saying if we had only 90 competitive seats out of 35, maybe 90, massive scandal, if that number were half a seat, and have the seats, none of the made up number -- it is very rural areas. being competitive would change the american government in terms of how much got done and what cooperation would be like across the party.
whatever party were in, it has got to produce results that would allow you to be reelected. >> arizona is a place to look at. they have a council that does it. even more of their states are competitive. -- seats are more competitive. i would like to answer your question. my answer would be the clintons themselves. inis partly because she lost 2008. when she ran in 2008, there was the assumption she would be anointed. she lost to barack obama. indian suing eight years, it has -- in the ensuing eight years, it has built up that any younger member of the party, you notice bernie sanders would be the only one who really stepped up to run against hillary clinton. there was a reason for that. the clintons make sure that was the case. [indiscernible]
he tried, he really tried. the second part of that, the clintons are proud of their own environment. what they learned at the time of the democratic party was [indiscernible] their answer was to run separate. elected fromu got the south where you had to be more moderate. the clintons ran on globalization, passing assets. they have internalized for decades this is how you win as a democrat, and if anyone tries to do it another way, doesn't understand that. they as a political team have become a political institution. they are the democratic party. sometimes younger people are quicker to pick up on what is going on around them. the challenge for the democratic
party, we are talking so much about the republicans, but the civil war is in the democratic party. because the clintons have had such a hold on the party, their bench is not there. who will step up for the democrats? who will run in 2020? it is possible senator sanders will take another crack at it. but he is -- , we are atg flux that time in point. >> 2020i think is crucial. last time you had a president who is a moderate who faces a congress that is united but more extreme. so i am wondering, and he comes from nowhere to win, completely unexpected. two years later, he wins again. i am wondering if carter in his experience with the democratic
congress is what we may see with trump and the republican congress. i don't know. if that is the case, 2020 is when the democrats find ronald reagan. [laughter] [indiscernible] >> anybody else want to get in on the final topic? ok, ok. thank you so much for coming. [applause] thank you. [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2016] [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. visit ncicap.org]
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