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tv   Lev Gudkov Discusses Russian Public Opinion of Vladimir Putin  CSPAN  November 22, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EST

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that is what i regret. i will never home watching it saying, mine. but it wasn't. ask, but we do at pfizer your state collects to do if the epa and congress, they believe are working against their interest or environmental goals? >> in any democracy, everybody has a right to their own opinion and voices should be heard. epa has done over the past few years at looking at what the facts are. i think folks should continue to speak if they disagree and don't think that people aren't paying attention. that is the democratic process. cities,u think
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corporations, they fill the gap left in u.s. climate leadership if they don't believe donald trump is taking it the right way? >> i do. and there are a lot of people here who will confirm this. i think progress will continue. there are many reasons why. but two of them answer this question. if you have worked at the state level or the local level, you cannot run away from people. you know? you have to make decisions not based on politics but based on what people are demanding of you , or you will be the shortest lived municipal servant in the history of mankind. and so people really worried about the impact of climate. mayorsre thousands of who have signed climate pledges. they are working hard. now. are leaving this we take you live to the woodrow
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wilson center for a discussion about russia and the popularity of vladimir putin. we are very pleased that they were able to cosponsor today's event. and i would like to welcome c-span to today's event and we look forward to watching the program, going forward. this is the part of the distinguished speaker series, and today we will be talking about the question of polling in russia. despite the standard of living, mass support for president vladimir putin remains high. his popularity rating is referred to as the 86% in russia . we are pleased today to have dr. lev gudkov, to come and talk about the nature of vladimir popularity. i want to begin to emphasize by ising that dr. lev gudkov
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speaking in a private capacity. amongst his other titles, he is editor-in-chief of the magazine harold" and has won numerous awards and published quite wely. and he is quite obviously the director of one of the major sources of independent public opinion research in russia. so it is my great pleasure to today.ce dr. lev gudkov he will be speaking in russian soy ask those who need translation to use your headsets. translation] >> it is a great honor for me to speak at the institute. we mentioned the 86% and when i
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hear this percentage, i don't believe in the 86%. people are lying and people are not telling the truth. how can you conduct a poll in an authoritarian -- in a country under an authoritarian regime? the doubt andhat foricion and accusations participation by the republican the sides. from all -- who accuse us of being foreign agents and undermine the system, as well as from opposition activists who question the validity. i will be question -- i will be .alking about the opposition
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this is a crisis of perception, a very serious issue for russia. the idea of the future. because it is the question of the freedom. the very idea of democratic transition. that has created for russian opposition a difficult challenge. understanding or the means i claim that -- what is important is not the reliability of the data that we receive. that --xtent [indiscernible]
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the problem is the interpretation of what is going on. and after this introduction, i am going to move to the -- moved to describe [indiscernible] what i'm going to show you, results of the national russian representative searches, which are conducted every month. andmore frequently sometimes less frequently, in russia. [indiscernible] the -- of the popular opinion. of --bines a number
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[indiscernible] the situation and the country, this is a complex sentiment. it is very sensitive. and it is subject to changes over public opinion. so if you look over the last 20 there is a chart, .rop in 1990 [indiscernible] there was a new crisis that breaks expectations over the [indiscernible]
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i'm sorry. when putin came to power, the extent that we will kill all of our enemies, no matter where we find them. all the industries -- and later, we had speculation -- on the situation [indiscernible]
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or failure to conduct -- however, [indiscernible] -- abruptly --
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the putin regime should secure this ability. all the way to the end of 2013, we were observing the putin and the general assessment of the situation, disappointment, particularly among the middle class in russia. , itafter that
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radically changed. [indiscernible] peak by the summer of 2008. the sentiment provoked by and later, we can see that trust went down. the legitimization of the regime. in 2000 13, putin's rating was down to the lowest -- in 2013, putin's rating was down to
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the lowest. one can see that -- total and theover the media components. [indiscernible] in december 2014, -- said they would not like to see putin candidacies be nominated for the presidential elections. -- [indiscernible] this was the lowest point. 2011, -- [indiscernible]
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demonstrations of the middle class came out into the street. this activity showed sharp criticism. party popularity -- if there was the moment -- [indiscernible] by 25%,on, supported , righthest -- later after that. incredible, aggressive -- and anti-western campaign. this provoked a new wave of
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military excitement. his rating, as you can see, 88%.d all the way to which practically matches what going on in 2008. later, he stayed more or less at the same levels. increasing. at the same time, a crisis through the country. andh was quite severe 1998.lly different from the one of, unlike
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2000 8, 1998, a domestic crisis and a systematic crisis. situationnal economic -- [indiscernible] began in 2012 when the price of oil was higher than $100 per barrel. the regime ran out of resources. -- it isrowth of the sufficient to say that by the ,ime putin came to power controlling about 26% of all the resources. now it controls 70%-70 1% in 70%-70 1%. --
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in other words, it has as thecally increased population has been increased. the people who work for government. a large share. [indiscernible] so-called positions and supported -- [indiscernible] this position dramatically changed the revenue and income. with the drop of oil prices. it had a painful impact on the .iddle class all, all the
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assessments of the trust of the government went -- nosedived. so in general, what we can say is an assessment of the drop -- dramatic. 15%. [indiscernible] a much more dramatic drop. people manage to -- discontent was transferred from putin to the lower level of the government. -- it goes down.
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particularly annoying and provoked the legislators. an assessment -- positive. [indiscernible] 30%. up to 30%. importantly, was the sentiment. and criticism for the ukraine. i'm not going to analyze it because we don't have enough -- it was directed not so much -- but against the policy of the intervention.
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[indiscernible] --an rights, inspired [indiscernible] and it was directed against russian opposition. and those who were anti-vladimir putin. specifically, in this situation, supporters of this -- but as the challenges of putin's enemies, and therefore, russia. this is very important. kremlin, towards
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this possibility [indiscernible] -- in 2012, after [indiscernible] censorship, persecution of opposition. the so-calledhen legislation against foreign agents was introduced. and against opposition, those pro-u.s.o conduct policy and other channels and
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input of the revolutions. the attitude towards putin of himself, one should not perceive the86% as the result of condition of the charismatic attitude of putin. [indiscernible] leader, atic atagogue who -- if you look -- the sympathy, with the , the people crimea putin -- more than a third of the population. a negative approach towards
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putin. indifferencethe was an important factor. sentiment -- regimes. [indiscernible] bring a society into the state -- alienation towards politics. -- involvement [indiscernible] goal of the policy of the kremlin. -- that does not putinhat the condition of
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[indiscernible] published, putin corruption, we have these questions. and you can see that putin was perceived, to a certain extent, as the head of a corrupt system. population, they accept it. that they share of theely the provisions report that putin is one of the members of the -- style .overnment , --he time of crimea
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decreases to the minimum level again. -- people who are absolutely -- they reject charges against putin. the main bulk say, maybe this is correct. but i myself am not aware of it. [indiscernible] and encourage that kind of well, everyone is a system -- bute for me, the more significant result is the -- if it is true, what is the difference?
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what is important is that the country is getting better. the -- thisst publicity is very important. a key component of indifference. and it should be taken into consideration, the inertia. [indiscernible] but this is the experience of a --son who has learned through an oppressive state. and to display loyalty to this reality, iswhere in concerned only about his own personal problems.
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in other words, the strategy of every day people is the -- [indiscernible] --the involvement of [indiscernible] people clearly have an idea of what the regime is about. and putin is supported by the populists. -- he is not even a monarch. ofmuch as the information that. aboutpulation has an idea the nature of the regime system. before, it is very -- propaganda,
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not simply that it was propaganda but the association growing to the level of the eaves of the great war. it is a very important component, because propaganda, raised a wavely of national pride, a self-assurance as a respondent's , a self-confidence. we are strongthat as everyone started to respect us. of a bear, idea showing his teeth. story crimean history and -- pride and self respect. it has jumped. [indiscernible]
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a great power that was extremely painful. revealed in this , as asive self assurance country who has a historic superpower. idea andaggressive attitude of the government is the population of russia. so taking a look at the , thenents and sentiments achievement is foreign policy. attention to national interest. -- andional area russianion of the authority. this is very important, because in all other areas, vladimir
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putin's activity is modest. he has not achieved great successes in his fights against corruption. [indiscernible] down, which does not make him more popular. the situation is unstable. [indiscernible] his achievement is foreign policy. here, it is important that vladimir putin works in a completely different environment. an environment of millennia russia, representative of russians only station -- russian
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civilization. and the local governments were -- [indiscernible] putin for the state of things. meanwhile, i would also like to start by raising the level of the soviet sections. during the last two years, we have dealt with a dramatic rebirth of many soviet ideas and perceptions. old ideas that the government
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controls the economy. because it secures a certain stability, stable salaries, education and jobs. it also provides certainty in the future. believe they were turn -- return of socialism is used as some kind of guideline. seems quitel system appealing. , as ademocracy as a model
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very attractive -- today, is practically nonexistent. is beingnt system assessed. after crimea, it is less attractive. it is very important that the remain enemy number one with the rhetoric enemy number one in the
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rhetoric. . these perceptions of the cold .ar were brought back also a military rival. of the the launch anti-ukraine propaganda as a negative approach towards the along with the negative sentiments toward ukraine. list of unfriendly nations and estoniaithuania
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after the revolution of 2004 took place. within the context of this anti-western propaganda mother is a growing attitude towards germany the attractiveness of china has to medically raised as the anti-west desha hasatically raised as --
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as part ofy raised anti-west -- the aggression comes from right to defend ourselves. [indiscernible]
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this is a war, we need to be patient. the most important motto here is we can achieve everything as long as there is no war. this is the illustration of the idea that russia has always taken. after putin came to power, the environment of animosity much to secure -- confrontation with creating an
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impression that russia counteracts the western influence. playing a more significant role in international areas. this is increasing influence, brings respect from other nations. restoration of the great powers, this is what people expected from putin. element inportant and, crimea annexation anti-western confrontation. 1999, 65%elt that russia
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was lower than where it started as a superpower. had turned into a regional power. in 2008, the rest the war -- thisgeorgia involvement dramatically increases attention for the social context both economical and political. this model shows the attitudes expressed towards the government my time is running out.
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that's why am going to stop here. >> thank you very much. there is much to think about and many interesting numbers to contemplate in your talk. i will ask the first question. all -- ok,re you are ok. i first question goes to the nature of the opinions about the old soviet system. if you could address the question, when you talked about the rising number of support for , i was justystem
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curious if you could identify, when you talk about the support for the soviet system, whether you could break that down by age groups. there was this support for the old soviet system. was it mainly from the people who lived through the soviet system or is the support for the soviet system equally spread amongst all in society come including on people -- all in society, including young people? [speaking russian]
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>> there was a sense that the country was at a dead-end print research wast, our risen frompicture -- 7% to 34% in only two years. it was a stage of collective frustration. after the crisis of the the communist
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comeback began. leading to a difficult economic situation. great disappointment in the and themodel idolization of the soviet past. a perception that the reforms described by the west were for the destruction of the soviet union. on the other hand there was bywing nostalgia that used putin.
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he kept using this argument all the time. the attitude towards the soviet regret that -- 56% regret that the soviet union collapsed. quite different among different social layers in different social environments. the people aged 45 and above who lived through the end of the experienceem do
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resistance towards the growing younger members have this delusional idea of the superpower which we have lost. this is very significant for them. those who live in the remote provinces, they are nostalgic about the soviet system which secured a certain level of social warranties. e situation for them is tense. note.uick
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question inask your english or russian, please begin to the microphone. just speak into the microphone. speak clearly and slower than i am speaking right now. [speaking in russian] >> i believe this is very important in order to interpret do you have some kind of the data -- [indiscernible]
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do you consider this a crucial problem? i personally do not believe that this is a serious issue. we are not radically different from situations in other countries.
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the opinion exists -- it is a traditional sociological process , not particular to our situation. this is some kind of invented -- to justify an ability to understand our data. people do not take into account the elements of the left overs -- this is exactly like in the united states in the first days , people werection shy to admit that they were voting for trump.
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liberal journalist ideas spread to other categories of the the element of fear has been raised. to which extent it has an impact , not much. we have checked this many times. it depends on the technique of the question. the telephone questions give you loyalist answers regarding putin than a face-to-face interview. context motheran is more of an element of trust.
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-- in a normal human context, there is more of an element of .rust a lot of things, adjusting the answer to present as loyal -- attitude towards the , because there is civic duty -- everything is asked. are they afraid or not? 60% say they are afraid.
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18% say i would rather stay silent. there is a personal attitude which is quite different. , this is the problem and notnterpretation the way to receive data. there's not a great deal of difference. in such a gathering of information. thank you. american foreign-policy counsel. i would like to ask a question looking a bit into the future. one of the big issues the russian government is facing is the need for reform of the
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pension system. which is very generous by international standards. an extremely expensive given russian government finances. putin has proposed some fairly rapid that's not radical, but significant restrictions on age and benefits. some of these have already been introduced for government employees. the pension system is one of the most fundamental elements with patrimonial relationship between the state and people in russia. it is the primary means by which much of the older population survives. if between now and the next presidential election there were a significant alteration in the ,ension system, even announced maybe not actually applied, but announced, how do you think this would affect broad public attitudes toward a state? >> negative.
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[laughter] [speaking in russian] we have asked this question. even mentioning the possibility of raising the retirement age was received very painfully. bad,er, it is quite there's going to be a harsh and theful policy towards pensions been decreased. because the level of inflation 9%.t the level of 4%.ctations were for at the end of 2014, it was 16%. expectation was 4%.
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there continues to be cuts. --l the government survive it was an additional tax under putin's regime. at the same time, the pensions are very small. about 65%. today, it is 32%. it is very hard to survive -- >> we don't have a lot of time left.
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short questions and short answers. >> i met fellow at the wilson center. i want to follow-up on the question -- how about the support for putin? how does this breakdown by social groups? -- werd in 2012 protests were told mainly by middle-class professional class folks in moscow and st. petersburg. putin seems to claim the support of the working class in the industrial land and so on. what is your data say about who exactly is supporting putin? [speaking in russian] >> i'm from ukraine. you did not show the slide -- i have a question, do the people
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of russia relies -- realize the , professionalne military are taking part? why are they silent that these russian soldiers are participating in this war? thank you very much for your wonderful presentation. i have two questions. of people who voted my question 2011 -- animosityhe lack of
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-- anonymity. regime,o support the there is a quarter which is against which has no opinion. it was interesting for me to see trend,rends -- a new starting from the mid-2016 to , i understandy -- thes a more critical response was more critical.
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russian]ing in >> a lot of questions. this situation has been worsened. the outlook does not look good. the putin majority is starting to fade away. -- i would call it introduce distinction. the use of the so-called low intensity. for western sentiment and the approval of putin, people are not willing to say. if this situation is going to change dramatically, indeed,
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this all could change very quickly. when putin is a leader in a ambolic context, it cannot be separate failure of economics or makegn policy -- it should of thetic breakup current picture and everything will collapse. role in theplay a --ire symbolic context people should become aware that 's official policy
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and does not provide a good -- does not bring back the status of great power. today's gains will turn into tomorrow's defeat. did i answer your question? regarding the support of putin in different social segments, , theost supportive which is socialized under the circumstances of the new environment. raised with the ideology to support putin -- 90% of the youth support putin. the lowest assessment of his
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activity is in the age groups of retired people. their pensions are decreasing. if we check the social settings, most stable putin save haven in russia. 70%average approval was moscow, about 25%. the russian middle-class of theands the danger


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