tv Campaign 2020 New Hampshire Primary Preview CSPAN November 30, 2019 7:04pm-8:02pm EST
coverage of the impeachment inquiry on c-span. next, political reporters and former presidential campaign advisers preview the february primary.mpshire they also compare the upcoming primaries to those in previous presidential races. the university of southern california's center for the political future posted this event in los angeles -- hosted this event in los angeles. event will bes broadcast on c-span and facebook live and i'm delighted to have this conversation. she has previously covered other elections. james is covering 2020 for the boston globe and is also a political analyst for new hampshire's wmur tv and a
commentator for outlets such as cnn and politico. patrick griffin is also a cnn commentator, longtime new hampshire political strategist, a visiting fellow at the center for political future and a fabulous teacher. he advised george w. bush and recently served as a senior advisor to new hampshire governor chris sununu. codirector of the center, veteran of five presidential campaigns, and numerous campaigns for senators and governors including arnold schwarzenegger and mitt romney. patrick, i'm going to begin with a question and at least we are going to start with you. a lot of critics think that new hampshire, with a lack of diversity, should never be the first primary state. what is your response to that and will this ever change? it willsponse is that probably never change and we could talk about that for a
second. there is a great amount of hostagetaking, malfeasance holdups, everything but cash changing hands in order to keep new hampshire. there is an important part of that, but more than anything, why is there a new hampshire? because new hampshire says so. new hampshire has an interesting history but they simply will not give this primary help. theyfought with iowa now keep iowa first and nh second. the law in new hampshire reads there should be no light con test. bill gardner, secretary of state who run things in new hampshire, he is very good about making sure that he is prepared to all christmas eve, new
year's eve, or valentine's day if he needs to. new hampshire is extremely homogenized. it does not look like america. it is largely white, it is frankly not as conservative on the republican side as it could be, representing other states, and it's not as liberal on the democratic side. day, you can pull a ballot from either party. not only do democrats and bothlicans, the faces of parties, have the opportunity to vote after being organized a number of years ago. as one woman said, i never vote for a candidate i have not danced with at least twice. it is a small state. you can drive the length of the state very easily. it makes for great television because there are high snowbanks and everybody gets to buy a ben
jacket. the optics are great from a television standpoint. at the end of the day, new hampshire does not look like america. it is there because it won't let go and it forces people like joe biden right now to trudge through and put up with what he's going through right now. the front runner in a new poll today is having a tough time. what does that mean? it means that presidents, vice president, members of congress, governors have to come and do a bit of scraping with the locals and practice retail politics. somehow, we believe that creates a character. at least, that's the argument. changes, partit of it is tradition. is theer piece of it humiliation factor that even the strongest candidates are put through in a place where you
have to stand in a snow bank and answer 15 questions that the international monetary fund patiently. it's not easy. host: i was going to ask you. >> look, the criticisms of new hampshire are completely legit. i am about as bought into the system as possible. i went to college in des moines. i made my way to new hampshire, this is my seventh presidential primary. i am about as biased as you can be. but the criticisms are real and they are completely legit. they are not diverse states. their largely rural states at a time when america is becoming increasingly urban. it frames the conversation around issues that may not be as relevant to most americans. yes, we were expecting record high turnout in a democratic .rimary in february
that might be about a quarter million people, in california has got 40 million people. the criticisms are real. when we have this conversation, what bothers me is that we don't -- what we don't have, as opposed to what? that is what we should be talking about. you can talk about the endless criticisms but there are a couple of things that matter. 1916 matters because out of the decided thatra, we these private clubs in our political parties, we should open that up more. so we start having primary elections. theoesn't matter that much, three states that started off the process, new hampshire was not first. then they back, but
elected delegates. that changed in 1952 with the modern era when you did elect the president. some candidates didn't campaign. another important date is 1968. particularly the democratic primary. a famous chicago convention. that's from ember what happened. wasew hampshire, lbj reduced to 60% of the vote, but mccarthy got close to 40%. as a result, two weeks later, lbj said he would accept the nomination. he would not pursue or accept the nomination. there are only 14 states to hold primaries in 1968. they would trudge through and humphrey got in the
race, but the idea is that the candidates who ran in these was with the electorate wanted. they said they could never happen again. the party insiders still decided that president humphrey was going to take over. they changed it again. in 1972, even into 1976, we are going to create iowa and new hampshire and that the people decide and now we have more state. again, as opposed to what? party insiders who were not represented at all? the creation of jimmy carter. the one person who has created this mythology that you can be a random person from georgia and the elected president. and now we are here today.
new hampshire is still first, i was still first. their clout has significantly diminished. they may remain first, we are now witnessing the most nationalized presidential primary season we've ever seen in the modern creation of the last 40 some years of this latest iteration. consider the qualifying rules for a debate. in the last debate, there were 20 qualify polls. 12 were national, which were completely irrelevant. the campaign does not take place in kansas, so why are we pulling people in kansas? doesn't really take place in texas. the criticisms are real, but the clout is diminishing. >> i shared the criticisms or the skepticism's of having two , and as ate states cemetery campaigns, i think
there are two things that suffered a little bit. after iowa and new hampshire, you have south carolina with a large population of african-american voters. i think there is help to address the diversity issue. beyond that. i grew up on the east coast. large states where campaigns are run on tv. go on thailand new hampshire and seeing barack obama or mitt romney or whatever, 20 feet away from you talking to real people, you would never see that in california. that really does make the candidates, even if they have the most money in the world, it makes than actually talk to voters. they really relish their duty of asking tough questions of these candidates. it is really impressive to watch. toalso gives a chance candidates who don't have as
much money. , wonder if the 2008 campaign if that had taken place in california, with that result have been possible? i don't think so, because hillary was so well known and obama was able to meet voters and pull off a surprise win that gave other people space. i don't know that you could have that outcome in a large state with a big tv presence and not give those intimate events. >> something quick? >> i've got about an hour. [laughter] >> quickly, i agree. four, iowa the first caucus, new hampshire primary, nevada, south carolina, that four is the lever on the process. you get rural and new england, conservative and evangelical, represented in the south carolina parts.
vote infrican-american the south carolina primary. if you clump them altogether, it is pretty balanced. another point would be, the other way to do it is totally nationalized. the more famous you are, the better you do. this system lets the smaller candidate have a shot with us resources and an entrepreneurial basis to try to crack the thing and get momentum. i think they are going to be very influential, but what i agree with is that it has become nationalized but the stage upon which the national contest is mostly played in the last 60 days in the iowa caucus which we are about to begin and the turbulent eight days later in new hampshire through the nevada caucus. it is a little more of a hybrid. isolated as as before but they are still the voters who count 100 times more than any of us. >> i want to be clear.
when we get to the voting, there can be hugely important processes. >> and the qualifying. >> if you don't win the early states, you're done. >> i want to now turn from whether new hampshire is ideal or not because i don't get ever going to change. new hampshire and iowa are arguably battleground states. takearty that tries to away the first caucus is going to do very badly in the general election. i just don't think it's going to move. i want to handicap the new hampshire primary today. first, about how much trouble at 15% -- biden is in and beyond that, is warren's momentum likely to be sustained? and is sanders' position?
james, you want to start? >> remember, sanders won with 22% of the vote. margins the largest since jfk. -- he started with such a head start. he has an enormous committee that was actively meeting every month beginning in 2017. he started with such a head start. is going about energy to other people. hillary or bernie. he is still very much in the game. no question about it. that still ise framed as a state that either warren or sanders is going to win. a new england candidate has won every time. kennedy inteddy
1980. said, i will likely has someone who is elevated and that person is not warren or sanders. that is where i think things on the top level stand. it gets more interesting below it. >> what has happened to biden? >> he started out by being famous enough to have an early lead in national polls, which are the weakest indicator. they give you basically a report on last week's noise meter on media coverage. because he was famous, that was his initial advantage. if i were head of the foreign intelligence service, i would ride media posters because they set the tempo for money, press coverage, everything else. once again, back to the first question, once you get to the new hampshire primaries, the
lawrence can show up and start canhe war ins -- warrens show up and start to sell tickets. biden has had the burden of being the competitive front runner. buttigieg has emerged as the biden understudy. if you doesn't win. remember, he is supposed to be superman. but if he can't lift of a locomotive, not only is warren, but there is room for maybe somebody else and then the dynamic becomes really interesting. remember, you had a big independent vote in new hampshire. republicans when we crushed george bush. we were competitive, close. but it was not that close. we destroyed the independents who crossed over. i look for events in the last week after iowa where i see a lot of all those in the parking
lot -- a lot of volvos in the parking lot. >> you've suggested to me that buttigeg has real potential in new hampshire. why is that? >> i think this is a game of expectations. this narrative takes a wild to play out. the media starts covering places like iowa and new hampshire very, very early. our attention spans today are very different because of this. back in the days before we can instantaneously receive not only the news that we wanted to hear and be told when the news has arrived, we could also soar the news by which news we wish to believe. we filter a lot of this stuff as we need to get it. the expectation gets dragged out over a long time. starts after the election immediately who makes the first visit. where that game
continues for a long time. were 17 people, that's a big crowd for someone who has never been famous before. that's a lot of people. they compare it to what happened four years ago, three years ago. i don't want to play that game because new hampshire is a bit of an enigma. we all like to think about somebody who talks like the person i just spoke about. that's not really what new hampshire is anymore. most of the folks in southern new hampshire are people who work and live in massachusetts. many of them commute to boston and come to new hampshire because they don't want to pay income tax. the globe, the largest selling newspaper in new hampshire. the fact is, it's a very different place. new hampshire was always a place , forcherished independence years and years call the shots. they hate democrats, they love republicans, except for the republican a hated.
but that has changed. the influence of newspapers is a media has changed. the influence of local newspapers has changed. more importantly, the influence of expectations doesn't which is why murphy and i sit around hiring talk about this a lot. i will be gets new hampshire -- iowa begets new hampshire. has one job which is basically to screw iowa. they tend to set things right. venture fixed presidents -- new hampshire fixed presidents. and they vote in secret ballots, not a caucus, you have to wrestle with somebody to join your team. but the expectation is that i would use to be three tickets. you tried to get three tickets out of iowa. maybe one ticket out of south carolina.
that has changed, the conventional wisdom is very different. does anyone think bernie sanders is going anywhere? if he doesn't win iowa? bernie is making $1 million per week in small contributions. that is keeping them a very good lifestyle. it was a bookstore going first class. it is a comfortable way to go and he is the conscience of the democratic party. he is watching elizabeth and joe like a hawk. doesn't matter what happens. joe biden has a different problem, expectations. these famous. he's got to do well. if he is so wounded out of iowa and new hampshire, does he finished second, third? does piece become just famous enough after iowa? media,e darling of the the narrative for the next generation of the republican party.
>> democrat. >> i got republicans on the mind, sorry. the bottom line, democrats tend to like someone who is about tomorrow. they have always been that. kennedy will go to the moon because we can. the new frontier. passing the torch to a new generation. the last hundred the democratic party nominated someone older than the monument in washington. that is not the way it usually goes. right now, they may do it again with joe biden. so, the expectations between iowa and new hampshire are very important. one last problem. whoever wins in iowa and new run into aas got to very interesting cultural demographic and carolina. african-american voters are a problem for elizabeth warren, a problem for feet b -- for pete buttigieg. >> i want to go back --
>> go ahead. we can talk about mayor pete, but elizabeth warren only got a sentence here and she seems to be emerging. ,> if you see her on the trial she's clearly got a lot of energy, and a lot of momentum. more and more people showing up at her events. this people waiting in line. also the organization in the early states is very strong. well seasoned operatives who know what they're doing. there is a sense of excitement around her campaign in iowa and new hampshire. today, i thought one of the interesting things, only 23% of people were really committed to their choosing, and that a really low number. that shows us that there is still a lot of time and a lot of people need to make up their minds. i was in iowa last week and i was hanging out with his campaign team, there was just so much energy and on friday night,
all these people getting together and plotting the week. the other campaigns, they say the one coming up behind them is buttigieg. >> something quickly, the big factor here is that buttigieg was able to raise money. second andn the third quarter. he is spending that money and he has the largest team and the most amount of offices in iowa and new hampshire. he's got hundreds and hundreds of staff. that matters because of this. in the last debate, we would argue that he had a really good debate. so did amy klobuchar. one candidate have the infrastructure to capitalize on that. got 1.5 million in 24 hours which does not sound like a lot, but for her, it is pure she is doing a little bit
better than a couple weeks ago. 16,000 phone call the next day. >> the challenge of organization, it is money plus time. if you get money late, you can't build an overnight organization. in the iowa caucus, which is what you got to be careful about these, you have a complicated process where people show up on a cold night and speeches are given. it is an interesting way to do it. and then there are multiple bouts of people dropping out. the social relationships between the people and the smaller counties become very important , i kindizational stuff of like mayor pete but the biden coordinator is my nephew, i got to see him everything skidding. cory booker has the veterinarian, he's the guy i call in the middle of the night for my livestock when there is a
problem. all of this stuff here it >> the first time somebody told me how the iowa caucuses were run, i thought they were pulling my leg. you pick your corners of the room. the other things he didn't mention is the fact that biden has such little money. it's amazing how little money he has. he is well-known, but that number. >> we are going to get to that in a minute. i want to do first something that you alluded to which was the relationship between iowa and new hampshire. 2004 wasperience in iowa,fter john kerry won we agreed on the plane that once we win, he would mention i what exactly once. we came from iowa, we had a great victory, but new hampshire is the state that decides. and he never mentioned i was again the whole rest of the time up until the primary.
by contrast, in 2008, barack obama landed in new hampshire. and he talked about iowa endlessly. we would newnow if hampshire, we win the nomination. suddenly, and i suppose hillary's tears when she was asked that question about how participating was contributing to it, suddenly obama lost a primary that he had a pretty big lead in. you have to do well in iowa, but don't you have to be careful when you get to new hampshire? >> everybody loves a winner. there's an awful lot of people in iowa and new hampshire who wind up with pretty interesting jobs in the white house because they were there early and they helped propel campaigns. elseey more than anything is in this current race, to look at that expectation. is very strong,
she will be the nominee of the democratic party, and i believe that. i'm not sure that's the right thing for the democratic party because you look at all the polling and democrats want to be trump during that is one of the single biggest things. health care was number one, it was tied with foreign policy for what democrats are concerned about. let's go back to expectations. elizabeth is from massachusetts, she is expected to win the new hampshire primary. what is a win? won the primary, but not by enough. eugene mccarthy who was not supposed to do anywhere near that well didn't. when i greeted a candidate in 2000, george bush, he had just come from iowa and he mentioned iowa more than a few times. that's because murphy was waiting for us in new hampshire with john mccain and it made my life miserable. >> we never even went to iowa. we didn't compete because we knew we could take bush in one
place in time and we chose the battlefield and it was going to be new hampshire because new hampshire does not hate iowa, but they do want to assert a certain supremacy. i think you have to do well enough and i what to make it through the majors and the new hampshire, if you do everything else right, there's always a little extra special sauce. let's get noticed. i always liked the idea of coming out of iowa second and then having the right fit and infrastructure waiting in new hampshire which i think if things go right, we're still early in this, just under 100 days to go, a lot can happen. can be thatgieg thing and playng the new hampshire card right, that can be the surprise ending. >> i think it is best to win iowa and new hampshire which seldom you can in the democratic party. >> no one has ever done that.
obviously they went on to the nomination. >> people say fine, we are perfectly content. the other thing and james has a great. about this, maybe it isn't buttigieg. maybe lightning really strikes in new hampshire and somebody gets elevated. which could happen, there's always room. we talked about biden being short on money. he is just ok, as you mentioned. what is the likely reaction of new hampshire voters, new hampshire independents to that? >> money in politics, i have run races in other places. we are of the notion that it's always better to have more money
, and attacked the guy who has it. i think that money, message, and india are the mother's milk of politics. but i think more than anything else, what we have to really keep an eye on here is joe biden's ability to connect with new hampshire voters and iowa voters. in those small crowds you just talked about where you really want to see them test famous people. in a room with no more people than this sometimes. if joe biden had this many people, it would be a very sad story the next day because we in real-time a comedian flop at the comedy club. ever hear somebody start the national anthem just one octave too high? they are never going to make it. it is this uncomfortable feeling when you're watching this process and the press is real good at this because they can
smell it miles away and they talk to the people in the room. the super pac thing, there's nothing wrong with that. i don't think they get much into that. but i do think they know this: he sucked tonight. question, does the press live up to the promise? there isonder whether, so much talk about the billionaires and the 1% and taxing people and loopholes, the people who are going to fund the super pac, it writes itself. those are always issues the democrats talk about but this year it seems so heightened. it's interesting because he has no choice, so he's got to take a beating. we've been talking about iowa and new hampshire, after labor day. that pays for your voter contact, your digital and/or television.
he is going to get it up. narrative of an old traditional politician. wears that suit, so how much worse could it be for him? he desperately needs the money to be able to compete. blew $100 million and a super pac. trying to elect jeb bush and the republican primaries. all the super pac money in the world cannot save you if you are not what they looking for, which was her problem with jeb. and died in may not be what they are looking for and he does have strengths. without a super pac is going to concede the race before he has a chance to litigated. there's also a technical limit to what they can do. but i will tell you one thing, it could also help amy klobuchar and mayor pete. he could take the issue of medicare for all which democratic primary voters are
highly divided on, and he can go shove that issue in the middle and cut that thing in half which is a problem. it creates a category for others. i do think he has a choice and i think it's the right thing for him to do. he will get beat up for it. ads think there will be that will come from or at least challenges and debate stages that will be hillary, release your speeches to wall street, why are you taking all this money? you took money from so-and-so, those are the people creating the problems. that is what you're going to hear from some of his opponents. >> you could hear it from warren and sanders but definitely from pete. he has vowed to not take a super pac. >> there's also the hypocrisy argument. elizabeth is doing a very good job, running a great campaign. saying i don't take all that
rich money. about senate, she took 6.5 million of that money and transferred it into her presidential committee and then she got a white robe and decided no more of that. well, it is paying your campaign right now. i don't know if this thing goes a couple of rounds. i think he could put her back on her heels on that one. >> i think she's going to have to make a very hard pivot on this to compete if she is the nominee. sense is against donald trump, there's only one thing democrats haworth and billionaires, donald trump. to run the kind of fight democrats are going to have to run to win in just a few states, just a few states, i love california and new york and ever world. i'm not speaking as a truck enthusiast. our politics changed in that last primary.
the way the media covers it, the weight president behaves, the way campaigns respond. the bushes, i've been around them for a long time. generations of them. jeb bush is a tough politician. smart, tough, pretty good on his feet. smart, that was his problem. this was not a smart election, this was a mean election and a dumb election. it was all about calling someone a loser. that's not the kind of politics bushes practice. is, when you call someone a millionaire or a billionaire inside the democratic scruff, does it really matter all that much? ultimately what a let of democrats are saying, -- what a lot of democrats are saying, kill the orange menace. find someone who can get through the election and take this guy out. excuse me, elected
elite rarely beats ideology, but there is some of that going on right now. >> didn't realize you were working for tom stier. the one caution i would have about biden is that there is this tendency in the november before to decide was going to happen. the new york times had a front-page story which was not kind to me, saying that there was no chance john kerry was going to get beyond iowa, he was dead. in november of 2003. went on to win all but two of three of the contest. have to see whether or not the biden who was on 60 minutes social -- shows up at the debate. >> i don't think it's called the guilt dinner. >> before i turn this over to the audience, what about kamala harris?
what about cory booker, andrew yang? amount overa decent the campaign. andriy gang surprised me. i went to these events and they love him. the question is, is this a bernie sanders situation or a ron paul situation? ron paul had all these kids coming up, he didn't do well. bernie sanders, they made him competitive. seeing him was a really unique experience. he drew a combination of former bernie backers, some former trump akers, independents. he has been really interesting to watch this season. started off with a high point when she announced and a high point in the first debate on segregation when she challenged biden. >> kind of a sugar high.
>> totally was a sugar high, nothing since then has stuck. some of her supporters really believe she can clean up and bring it out. as our polling has shown, that is not the case, she is not the favorite. >> i think he could. those are the three options. booker, we were all waiting for him to have a moment, and maybe he will never have a moment. his moments are running out. i have a buddy who talks about the cone of probability like a hurricane, that gets smaller and smaller. over has invested well and he's got the infrastructure. but that moment has not happened. i'm not sure how she could turn this around at this point. andrew yang has a significant amount of cash on hand, they just announced six figures for digital. they have a major ad firm they just hired this week. if there is any one of those
three who continues to surprise, this is a person who has never run for office before. the best description of him, and i know him for the well, the best description was saying you know that guy at the party wisconsin was saying, if i were in charge? that is andra day. he has an idea and it caught on, but you asked the interesting question, is he bernie or is he ron paul? there is a future for andrew yang, i just don't know where. the strategic question is whether or not he just rues iowa. s --crews iowa. >> i would play that moment. it's only one half. i'm getting 100 emails. i can't decide, i feel like the thing is kind of over a month ago, at least nationally.
i am with james. if you want to punish politics, your choices are him or bernie. and bernie has downsides, we've seen before. he has a jolt of energy now after his health problem. but if you want to blow everything up, andrew yang has to perform any meaningful way. he doesn't have the chops that some of these other candidates have. i think he is interesting and iowa i think is booker. kamala harris is on her way out quickly. noter is good, but he has turned it into a vote and he is running out of money, as is amy klobuchar who finally woke up in the past today, probably too late. but she is somebody who could get a lightning bolt but may not to amplify what is going on in the electorate. i don't write off either and i will tell you this. understudy,e the
which i think is a long shot. but if they did, they can run the table in new hampshire pretty well because they would both be a trend that this independent voters who could come flooding in. election held today, i would that a lot of money elizabeth warren would be the democratic nominee. >> it's interesting, the ad firm he just hired is run by my former partner and they made the brilliant america ad for bernie sanders in 2016. it will be very interesting to see what they do with this whichillion dollar ad buy i suspect will be concentrated in new hampshire more than iowa. i want to turn this over and give people in the audience a chance to ask questions. someone has a mic and if you raise your hand. gobody for stier, you can first. [laughter] >> anybody have a question?
anybody from new hampshire? anybody from iowa? new hampshire, you get 10 questions. >> exeter. >> great. shocker, i lost the bet. >> you must be shaking. dynamism ina lot of the new hampshire and iowa votes. i have been looking at south carolina and a lot of african-american voters support joe biden because they think is the most electable to go up against donald trump. were to defeat him in iowa and new hampshire and when win theda caucus -- nevada caucus, do you think it would be a large section of african-american voters who would switch support to her? >> i do. >> there is a historical
precedent although it's not perfect, which is 2008, when all those african-american voters all thought hillary was the person. obviously they had a chance when barack obama won to vote for the first african-american president, but yes. the way wenk much of talk about new hampshire trying to correct iowa, demographically, there is an obligation to south carolina. to correct some of this stuff. i think elizabeth is going to have to go a long way to prove that she can connect with african-american voters. while your winning iowa and new hampshire and raising millions of dollars every day, you also have to think about the sequencing of these contests. it is 12 dimensional chess every day. my question is whether or not she still has the genuine parts
of those african-americans. that we talked a lot in the seminar about institutions. americans have lots of doubts about institutions which is how we got from. i think african-american voters are very interesting in how they process all of this. if we remember the obama coalition not showing up for hillary last time, general election, not primary, i still think that if the mistrust of the institutions, last time it was democrats. they paid the price. and by the democratic party, does elizabeth warren ring true? in her fighting? the two things we talked about. does she ring true? she's very good at it. the question is, do they believe someone from harvard who makes the kind of money she made teaching a course or two who is a northeast elitist really is someone who can speak to and hear their concerns? i'm not convinced of that yet.
she plays well in california. i think north and south carolina is a potential problem for her later. >> i do think that this has been a little bit under the radar, i do think she has been trying to make relationships among african-americans, particularly women. ,t's not reflected in the polls but i think if biden does drop to if biden does some polls the point where his african-american pullers look elsewhere, she could end up paying dividends down the line. >> does it go to bernie? in that particular voting segment, i think. >> if you are winning, you got momentum and you are pounding trump on tv, i think democrats as the for democrats in the end. ie thing i'm obsessed with,
do this podcast, and it's interesting. by iowa,is damaged second or third, but not dead yet, will barack obama send a little bit of signal his way because the obama connection is such gold for him with african-americans. that is part of the foundation. that, and beating trump. or, or the absence of the obama , without become a signal in itself? ist eight days in february going to be incredibly high-stakes politics for joe biden. it could affect a little bit of how much remains. >> reportedly, obama was against joe biden running this time. going tole, is warren run into problems in south carolina? well, john edwards won the
primary. >> john edwards won that primary and one other contest because he had two home states. north carolina and south carolina. but my point is that it didn't stop john kerry from the nomination, the same way this may or may not. warren is going to have the resources, as will bernie and probably pete. the nevada caucus is heavily driven by the culinary union's and is also heavily latino. beat before south carolina. >> do you think biden could job in doing a mediocre iowa and new hampshire? and hold onto his vote in south carolina and come back?
>> ronald reagan did this in 1976 when he was challenging gerald ford. contests, hearly came back and reminded himself in north carolina and he almost won the nomination. >> if he hadn't picked did schweiker for vice president. >> and he had a lightning bolt issue, the panama canal. >> this campaign is making that argument but it's an argument that many people are viewing skeptically. if you does not win or do well enough, the money has already dried up and is going to dry up further. pac donors might also get a little bit skeptical of things are not going well. if you does not win the first two states, i mean, never say never. after 2016 i said i would not make production. it becomes exponentially harder. >> you make a good point.
the strategy for democrats is hard to ignore, even against trump who is about to face almost certain impeachment from the house. probably not convicted, but very likely impeached. and i think the problem is the democrats right now have these lanes we talked about. buttigieg has money, he is progressive enough. my question, who bows out? sooner or later, she will do that. amy klobuchar, she has a lot ahead. cory booker has been a pretty good politician. out,i'm trying to figure is who else goes whose got money and the ability to not let anybody else get to that supernova place they need to be? >> keep in mind, the senators
are all going to be sitting in a jury box stuck in washington in january or december for the impeachment trial. they've got to sit there. they are going to be jumping out of the chair trying to do something to get attention. >> i heard recently although i have not heard late the that because the 2016 campaign, the way it was run with hillary supposedly already getting the nomination, bernie's teamstaff campaign supporters feel like now he should get it entitled, it's expected because he felt that he was robbed in 2016, therefore a lot of people, excuse me, chose to have voted differently. i was wondering how you feel about that, significant or insignificant, what is going on?
>> they voted differently? >> differently or they did not vote at all or they chose different candidates. or they did a lot of protest .oting but they were so mad >> you are talking about the general election. >> so now they feel like they are entitled and i'm sure if he's not nominated, there can be similar impact on who voters vote for. question which anybody can answer. following up on that. vote in thepopular 2016 primaries and by how much and who won the most contest in the 2016 primaries? you're wanting to add a fifth quarter to the football game again. 2016, manyng in people think the nomination was stolen.
who won the most popular votes in 2016, in the primaries? and who won the most contest? hillary clinton. in some of her delegates who were not around anymore. hillary did underperform in midwestern cities with african-americans, that cost her wisconsin and michigan, not as clear in pennsylvania. argument is not a big that a lot of them stayed home. the pending voter theory is highly overrated. your point,s is jill stein did get more votes in that margin of victory. >> this time around we are not hearing it from voters the way we were in 2016. i don't feel like when i talk to voters this time, that comes up as much. the problem that bernie is happy, he has other people to
share his ideological view, and some voters who supported him in 2016 believe elizabeth warren is a fresher version of it. >> so he won the new hampshire primary with 62% of the votes and right now in today's poll he's getting 21% of the vote. that tells you there is a fragmented field, a lot of people running. a binary choice between him and hillary clinton, all those votes were not entirely for him, they were also votes against her. >> i also get the sense as i look at bernie, in the polls that came out to day, he is the most likable democratic candidate. bernie sanders is the most likable. i'm reminded of a comic who wrote a great set and some of the comedian came in and stole his material and perform it. you get this feeling that bernie is the guy who he came up with it. i wrote the bill.
that's bernie. he's the angry guy. bad for him of feel because frankly, he did write this set. this is him that stood up and said this is what we are going to pay for and i'm going to take the party to a different place. i get the feeling that even though they are still strong, elizabeth is new and this shiny object, she is letting him down the middle and he clearly is starting to resent it. he has become larry david, literally. but the question is, how long does this -- how long is this before the democrats say i don't know if he can win? i'm hearing a lot from them. usually, they don't care about that. they want to be trump. i'm not sure they think that bernie could do it. >> again, we all look at these polls because the media reports them because they don't have an election data report.
it is harder and harder because nobody will take the phone calls. particularly in a small universe like new hampshire primaries. but the noise meter in a state the guy we won big, once voted for had a heart attack. and then he came back and showed little life. there can be a little sympathy bump going on right now. >> he had one of the better because of his campaign with all of that. to a stent made by an evil pharmaceutical company. we are going to bring this to an end, i think. i want to thank those of you who came out on a night when what may be the decisive game in the world series is currently being played, i just do want to say that when i said this to be on the same night of the world series, she said no, no. never going to happen.
the dodgers will win in four. with that, thank you all very much and thanks to our panel. [applause] [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. visit ncicap.org] >> coming up on c-span, next, advocate environmental dan son testifies on the environmental impact of plastic a discussiond then on civic engagement and civility bobby scott tative and political scientist. mark dean, co-creator impact of al technology and innovation. and then a look at difficulties n caring for aging americans, including the lack of reasonably priced long term care for senior
their care-givers. [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2019] [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. visit ncicap.org] > and rosemary gibson talks about her book "china rx," of america's ist dependence on china for medicine. c-live to watch washington journal on sunday morning. in the discussion. >> the impeachment inquiry hearings continue next week when judiciary committee the first dler holds impeachment inquiry hearing on president trump focusing on the history of and the impeachment. live coverage sunday at 10:00 a.m. eastern on c-span
3. invitation ded an for the president and his council to appear before the committee. letter to the president us ur website, and follow ife on c-span 3, online at c-span.org or listen live on c-span radio app. after an environmental advocate dan son was on capitol hill for on the environmental impacts of plastic pollution, r. dan son currently serves as a board member for oceana, a nonprofit ocean conservation organization. he hearing including testimony from other