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tv   Quadriga - Middle East Tensions A New War  Deutsche Welle  November 16, 2017 6:30pm-7:00pm CET

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it isn't. since i was a little guy i wanted to have them by cycle of my home and it took me years to. finally they gave up and went to buy me and i say this but three times because sewing machine sewing i suppose was more appropriate for girls than writing a bio and now i want to meet those woman back home so i bound by them and social rules and inform them about the basic rights my name is the amount of people and i wore them. to live in a very warm welcome indeed to this latest edition of quadriga coming to you from the heart of berlin now in the middle east is currently own edge with so-called
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islamic state forced into what looks like full scale retreat another longer term conflict is intensifying with this man saudi arabia's ambassador young crown prince mohammed bin sound man confronting the other big power in the region that is of course in the two countries are already locked in a proxy conflict that's impacting lebanon and is devastatingly yemen but now the fear is that the two strands of islam they represent sunni and shia could be drawn into a greater conflagration so our question on quadriga this week is middle east tensions a new war and to discuss that question i'm joined here in the studio by. brooky senior editor with deutsche of well as far as the service he say's military support for saudi arabia is just as wrong as abandoning the iran nuclear deal also with us is freelance journalist an expert on saudi. rapier pacer. who believes
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there won't be a whole war between saudi arabia and iran and a warm welcome also goes to show the result as from t w two why she's both a producer and an analyst shani can bring us the israeli perspective on things and she says in its ongoing struggle against iran it's not saudi arabia that israel is looking to. russia. for ok i'd like to begin with you if i might and of course the tensions between iran and saudi arabia go back a very very long way but why is this cold war now heating up why now and that is and kind of explanation for that i should also say it's not any kind of accord valar what we are seeing at the moment because cold war i think is valar of wards it's more than that isn't really valar it's a proclivity between both of them because you can also see in different parts of
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the rich in that country and think themselves against each other via you know i think there's two or three. issues help out understanding this for example we have done our trump in america. plays a major role in this confrontation in this levitt because last year the saudis told perhaps hillary clinton will be the u.s. president and he will follow the policy of the foreign policy of for barack obama which was not as friendly as seen under trump but trump is there than the other point is a defeat of. the. because not they have more.
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room for showing this confrontation and going to another higher level of this tension in this and then you have also nuclear deal nuclear deal may have helped it on to play a. more is stronger role in this region at that time. it was weak and could not. be revealed to saudi arabia but know they have money they can also support the military. here and there and so in this region ok let's bring in peace peace peace what you got to add to that pena run because my notion of what you know why now you know i wanted to add. two sides obviously to this conflict saudi arabia and iran
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pretty thick and synch other i think. one one point you would have to make is it has to do with the personality of the new strongman in saudi arabia the new crown prince. i think his personality shines through he the statements coming from saudi arabia are a lot more assertive a lot more confident some would argue even. even reckless or even venturous. and. said i mean for side arabia the nuclear deal with iran. that the west the u.s. and the other five nation states was was a wake up call they used to. i know that they can rely on the u.s. for protection but at that time and the obama administration's policies
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towards saudi arabia has become a lot more critical that was also new and in combination with the nuclear deal saudi arabia felt that they have to start to rely on their own resources that they have to. take charge of their own security and of their interests and that's what you see you know a lot more assertive for all coming from saudi arabia which clearly fueled the conflict with iran ok charlie rose on this from the israeli perspective israel coped very much between the fronts in this cold and the simmering conflict with us not feel for the people of israel well israel is always on edge worries always looming that's the feeling and when it comes to iran as a threat that's nothing new i mean especially under president prime minister netanyahu it's been repeating you know throughout that he's mentioning again and again as as his big goal for his administration is to sort of keep iran and bay and try to you know try to find all the possible ways to sort of curb iran not only
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their their nuclear aspirations but you know what he sees as their plot to sort of take over as much as they can of the muslim world and and have a strong foot put into the nearest parts of israel that is now syria and lebanon where it where so far he was only you know lebanon hezbollah was known to be a direct connection to iran that was something israel could have sort of understand and stand but now with new rules set in syria that's that's pushing the envelope a bit too far for the israelis that's the feeling of fullness and you know it's very much the case it seems that the enemy of my enemy is my friend and that's the reason why israel is shifting ever closer exactly to saudi arabia exactly that's exactly that the only way to describe the connection between saudi arabia and israel it's not great love that there is there i mean both sides are aware of the dangers the danger they might you know there's a something dangerous and then to the state it like israel being friends with any
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arab country definitely of saudi arabia but then at the same time the rivalry the hatred toward iran is just too big and let's not forget trump here again i mean trump's administration is holding very strong it has very strong connections both with saudi arabia and israel and i'm. sure that for example questioner's trip to the middle east where he makes sure he visits riyadh but also draws and i'm encouraging help that i'm sure you're nodding no. opinion. for example that was there before did tear time in the last months that he was there in this i would be i would be a dark playing as well with these cards and i think that is their reason why i know i have and not their level of. tension in this stage and. i agree i think the trump and miss fashion didn't play a helpful role it's seen that the visit from terrorist question and two to
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riyadh seem to go on the saudis and rather than to encourage to embolden exactly rather than trying to to to dampen the assertiveness so you know i think the trumpet ministrations role was wasn't very helpful to. just before we move on just give us an estimation of to what extent all that we're talking about is being played out is a mirror is a reflection if you will of the great historic divide between the two strands of shia and sunni. well it's clear that iran feels it's kind of like. things like a protector for the shiites in in the region and saudi arabia. is starting to feel in the same way. the king is called the custodian of holy sites meaning
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in mecca and medina so. the conflict between the two nations is certainly fueled by religious under. that name plays a big role you know ok we've talked about it already saudi arabia is currently in a massive process about the evil it's being described as a revolution from above and it's being led by one. in june of the elderly saudi king solomon been abdulla's he's also don't pointed his son mohammad crown prince. mohammed bin solomon is just thirty two years old and he's now considered the country's de facto ruler. he's carried out a purge of the ruling elite several hundred saudi princes government ministers and businesspeople have been arrested allegedly as part of an anti-corruption drive. the crown prince is working to consolidate his power base and to carry out radical reforms. but he has not had much success in curbing the influence of iran.
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saudi arabia continues to be bogged down in yemen civil war and now lebanon is flaring up again. the prince does have the support of the u.s. washington sees the saudis as key strategic allies in the region. what role will the crown prince play in saudi arabia's future. mohammed been known to his friends i'm told as his close allies n.b.s. what can you tell us about him as a as a person is about. well the first thing that striking is is he's very young is thirty two years old. he always worked with his father the current king he was in his administration the current king was the governor before. the. crown prince now and yes and to refer to now what was all this is
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a person secretary his. boss of the administration so he traveled very much in the shadow of his father his father became king he now into and became. became crown prince well we don't really know a lot of aside from that it's clear he has the financial means in about last year bought a five hundred million dollars yacht so he's doing quite well and. but i mean it's you can't underestimate what kind of a revolution he he started in saudi arabia to. fight back the radical islam to take on the islamic establishment. nick clerics over. women allowed to drive our women allowed into sports stadiums and so on
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that it's a huge huge deal in saudi arabia it's very new and it's a huge deal ok what is what is what is wrong what are the iranians make of all this . for sure because the problem is the influence of saudi arabi a if it's really true the military's top order which is really a big problem for iran not only for iran i think that is for the whole region because if you see there is a balance there is a balance and that is the reason why we did not have such a war between iran and saudi arabi a deal no but not all of the having the support from united this day just explain again what exactly is it that is there is breaking that balance. the military support the military support of united states because not all day have more
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active role in the game and if you will see. been signed by mama been cited as recently is it time is on our side if the. i think about what it does mean is not only and trade in the direction iran you know it's something that's in itself in here and because they are willing to show the cards is. be distributed. we shuffled yeah and we can also play another game this game is no game although it does is a new given in this new game we are going to play a major role in this confrontation. and also iran and surely to the israelis view the crown prince in saudi arabia as somebody who is standing for
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renewal of his society modernization or does he have a darker agenda well honestly israelis don't really care too much about what's happening in south saudi arabia for them this is just a game it's about a strategic aspect of it all and one saudi arabia becomes far more. willing to come closer to israel than israel is using it for its own advantages as far as again israel is never really and has never really cared too much for human rights or any other thing that happening within the middle east in the sense that it was always clear to to is to say israel that you know it stands in very different opposite sides and where you know on the values it was interesting how that's going to carry the line the other day said israel is happy to let riyadh leave the un to radiate alliance but not so happy to pay the political price of real cooperation with what he's worked at the political price all the political price is first of all matter how is it has the most right wing government we've ever seen in israel so of course this is nothing you know coming closer to
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a trip to the to the arab world is nothing that is taken so far only within his base but more than that that it seems to be understanding that the political process willing to pay is when it comes to the palestinians in the sense that they need to make some some show willingness for compromise when it comes to the saudi initiative which is quite old already but it's a prison initiative that was bought out back on. about almost ten years ago and so this was something that is always managed to sort of dodge and avoid but there's the fear that when. when the price comes you know that the time to get paid to pay comes in the saudis with so we are helping you with iran your fund you need to help us with the palestinians and that will be a bit of a tricky exchange for finance and you know to to be involved in okie dokie very interesting you mentioned during the break we'll be watching that short piece of about saudi arabia and the young crown prince you you had a comment that you wanted to make about the shia sunni divide in the relevance of that yes i think it's there's no doubt it is important in understanding the
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undercurrents of what's happening in the middle east and how it's you know how the alliances are being you know made but at the same time. it's a bit simplistic in the sense that if you look at places like turkey and look at places like pakistan you know these are places are actually coming closer to iran and these are sunni states and so what we basically seeing as a complete to shuffle following the fall of isis following what was supposed to be the arab spring seventy years ago and and and i'm not sure that the old rules that we know still apply so easily to the situation and within that we can see and i believe our alliances like israel and saudi arabia to the new game is always a very dangerous world in the middle east indeed very much and we cannot forget russia as a very dominant force and the region while you know the americans kind of stepped took a step back and of course the vacuum was filled by the russians and and their interest far more than pampering iran or anything else is just keeping stable hand on syria
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and they will do whatever it takes and if that means keeping iran close they will also do that russia the influence of russia and all this the role of russia and all this tell us more russia placed at the moment very clear on huge to grow in the area and this in this region not only because of there. in iran and syria but more than that because because of the. political of. obama. foreign policy of but obama has bring their position in a much weaker. prio to death and because of that russia could play a major role in this region busied know is that is the change is shift to. bridge in. power. russia not only in russia be in the syria but
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also in iran but also in other parts are playing really. ok we need to talk about iran we need to talk about lebanon a little bit more donald trump the u.s. president has described iran as a rogue state whose chief exports of violence bloodshed and chaos and iran is certainly pushing hard for regional dominance in the middle east but it is also negotiated with western countries including germany to reach a deal designed to prevent it from producing nuclear weapons. in july twenty fifteen huge crowds took to the streets in iran to celebrate an international agreement on the country's nuclear program six world powers lifted economic restrictions on iran in return for limits on the country's nuclear program. iran is now reasserting its influence in the region the saudis consider that a major threat. iran supports rebel forces in the civil war in yemen the saudis
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backed the government. iran has increased its influence in syria as a key ally of the assad regime. iran has also increased its presence him lebanon through its shiite ally hizbullah this is the israelis are very worried. will war break out again in lebanon. the result is the israelis are worried about the prospects of a possible war in lebanon is it likely is it inevitable well this the feeling is that it is an inevitable it's not a question of if the question of when and there's zero also seems to be consensus that now is not the time yet. israel's always been very loud about and clear about the fact that it will not tolerate any missiles you know being on the range
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of missiles shot from lebanon you know from hezbollah to israel and of course in their injure the northern part of israel but can also reach into the the most populated area in the center and then the biggest metropolitan of tel aviv so. in that in that aspect of course yes there's fear this great. mostly you know we're talking about the middle east as a new game with all the cards being we shuffled there's an understanding of every tiny mistake my flee to to to war and my plea to you know the the replications might be you know very dire so so as much as there is very strong talk and very high words there's also those very much caution when it comes to any facts on the ground or any any operations being made so we need to keep that in mind while role is iran playing exactly here it's very difficult to read. on the one hand there's a sort of a mood of compromise with the nuclear deal on the other hand arms shipments and arms shipments to hezbollah to the rebels who three rebels in yemen what
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does iran wants peace in the middle east does iran not solution in the lead by unknown as we see at the moment i'm not going to say there is a real danger of kind of valar but the possibility of such of war has increased and we should take it seriously and i think at the moment it's not like that that the war is knocking on the door in the libyan or or in between iran and saudi arabi are that there is and also part of this confrontation for example and it kind of it is possible against liban on saudi i via can. lead to a kind of destruction of their financial support for lever not which is very very
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dangerous for this country peter byrne you say that definitely will not be a real full scale war between saudi arabia and iran what makes you so sure. there won't be because i mean both countries i think aren't prepared for a war and i think it's also clear that. no one would gain you know no one would gain from it there wouldn't be a winnable war everybody still has the pictures in their mind of the first gulf war between iraq and iran it was a dreadful dreadful war so i think an open war between a land war between both countries. won't have. then the proxy wars will really go on but but i see another aspect i mean talking about iran and saudi arabia there's
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also the the aspect of. how how does the street how does the population feel about it when we remember in two thousand sixteen after saudi arabia executed a prominent shiite cleric named nima. demonstrators in tehran stormed the saudi embassy ransacked it. you know burned part part of it so the. tensions were high tensions came down again there was no talk of war but accidents like this well accidents or incidents like this can happen so we are going to see a lot of tension in the region but. hopefully no no concert no full scale war between iran and saudi arabia you gentlemen agree on that shaunie says almost inevitable a war in lebanon but one day soon and soon enough give it within
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a year or two what is going to happen next in the region i think we cannot be sure about that that there is no bar and if you see every factor if you see trees. as a forest and not separated from each other then you come to the conclusion if you pulled all of them under the table i think do option. real bar perhaps at the moment it's not so actually and the real bad possibility is really very very been. increased as it's about thirty seconds what's going to happen the longer we talk the more scared we get i mean it's obvious but. i mean we don't know what's happening down there. but in the next few months i have ok thank you very much to all three of you for joining me here on. middle east
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tensions and i hope we give you plenty of food for thought.
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