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tv   DW News  Deutsche Welle  May 18, 2019 3:15am-3:31am CEST

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nuclear deal unilaterally rejected a year ago i wash into iran also issued an ultimatum to the remaining parties to the agreement giving them 60 days to find a way to keep trading with iran despite the u.s. sanctions could u.s. pressure could produce a new and better deal as washington claims or will it result in war that's the question we pose on this edition of quadriga and here are our guests who will answer it it's a pleasure to welcome tori tausig she's a political analyst for the brookings institution currently on a robert bosch fellowship in berlin she says tensions between the u.s. and iran are escalating signals coming out of washington and tehran indicate things won't to cool down anytime soon. and we're very glad to have shine archaean on the program he is a political analyst and an iranian and shia affairs and he's editor in chief of iran under is a german language magazine specialized in reporting on iran he says europe
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shouldn't see iran only as a threat rather it county when tehran has a partner and it's a pleasure to introduce rick novak he's a berlin based correspondent for the washington post who covers international politics and he says both sides know that a u.s. iranian war could become more catastrophic even than the iraq war president trump could have few firm allies at home for such a confrontation. so i'd like to start out by trying to figure out if these drumbeats of war that we're hearing are in fact leading to that or whether they're simply scare tactics on both sides and for that purpose i'd like us to listen to some sound from both parties. what they should be doing is calling me up sitting down we can make a deal a fair deal we just don't want to have nuclear weapons not too much to ask and we would help put them back into great shape. would look at of negotiations with the us or poison as long as the us is what it is and has not come to its senses. talks
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with the us or poison and with its current administration it's a double poison him. the turing test you said in your opening statement that things won't cool down soon but trump is hardly sounding there like he's ready to go to war and the fact is that he was elected in part on his assertion that he would bring home u.s. forces from the middle east and not intervene anymore in that region that's exactly right president campaigned in 2016 on bringing troops home from the middle east ending america's costly wars in the region and also withdrawing from the iran nuclear deal and renegotiating a better deal with iran's leaders over not only its nuclear weapons and its progression of nuclear weapons but also its destabilizing activity in the region the challenges that there are hard liners in the white house that have
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a very different objective when it comes to iran and that is pushing tensions to the point where we are today that i think requires us to talk a little bit about those hard liners vigneault act in your opening statement you mentioned the iraq war well the fact is that one of the chief architects of that conflict is now the national security advisor to president trump and we're told that iran policy is absolutely in his hands so what are the implications of that let's say the president doesn't want a war how does john bolton feel about it well john bolton certainly has been advocating for military options potentially or at least a very strong stance against iran but it is unclear to what extent trump actually agrees with that assertion or with that stance of we have actually been hearing over the last few hours today that the trumpet has been quite opposed to some of the statements he has made. sure there are can you say that the u.s. can win iran as a partner but if we listen to that sound bite from how many it doesn't sound like
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he's ready for any kind of discussions and haven't in fact hardliners in the regime in tehran been gaining sway in recent months i have to correct that by slaves in europe or in iran the support i'm not so u.s. . at the moment the relationship but the intel on the western is too complicated for such perspective. but you'll say the hardliners in iran but i think in this regard we have really hard liners in iran because if you look at the presidential and parliamentary elections no political iran demand to have nuclear weapons or to pull out from the deal so what we know is seeing is let alone those so-called top line as what you see is that even the rough reformers those centrist in iran want. pressure as a centrist government of mr rouhani. to increase the iranian and to suspend some obligations and to just a few a i want to come back to that in
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a moment but can you just say a word about the latest u.s. claims regarding iranian threat to u.s. forces in the middle east we are seeing reports today that the u.s. says it has credible evidence that missiles have been loaded on to small boats in the persian gulf and that the revolutionary guards the hard liners in iran are behind this now in april the iranian parliament declared u.s. forces in the region terrorists isn't there some good reason to be concerned in washington about what the implications of that could be i don't think so it depends on the international community if the international entity that can help iran through events of sanctions at the moment is. it's not the moments that you honest most into the one that you want to listen to do then it can for example blocks
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through the whole most significant. happens was a straight person goes by the moment i don't sing that iran is interested in military conference i also think the us is also not interest the. military conflict . what we're seeing is a loss there's this more. missiles to prevent investments and business in iran because no businessman wants to deal with the county runs there's a fear that the next days the rebel well let me ask the 2 of you how you interpret these u.s. claims about having new and credible evidence of a qualitatively higher risk torito sic you mentioned the hard liners in the white house john bolton. certainly everybody remembers the evidence that he and others presented in the run up to the iraq war is that what we're seeing here
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a similar situation exaggerations or do you think this is more credible to be honest it's a little hard to tell what we're dealing with here because it did seem to appear somewhat out of nowhere about a week ago we had a scheduled visit from secretary of state mike pump aoe to berlin which was called off at the last minute so that the secretary of state could travel to iraq to meet with counterparts there to discuss what the administration said were credible threats of iranian proxies planning an attack on u.s. resources and military assets in the region with very quick movement of u.s. military assets to the region and all the sudden we're in this tit for tat moment of escalation between the iranians and the americans and yet when u.s. officials such as mike pompei i have tried to make the case of credible evidence to european officials. it's been met with increasing skepticism exactly rick no act europeans definitely pushing back on this point even
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a british general saying yesterday he doesn't buy the evidence he's he's seeing and that is quite remarkable as as you know britain is part of the 5 eyes alliance partnership and and clearly a dispute over evidence the u.s. claims could potentially justify military strikes and potentially a war with iran and the u.s. and the u.k. official denying that that is quite striking and i think that is not going to help the u.s. make its point here in europe especially but also in other countries meanwhile shown archaea iran is saying that it will no longer comply with the limits on production of an in rich to radio that were part of that nuclear agreement that the u.s. and the 5 permanent members of the security council together with germany all signed up to so what exactly does that mean how quickly can iran rev up its nuclear
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program are we now in imminent danger of seeing it essentially restart its own program. first of all let me say this much. into the just appraiser just. gives the right. tool to c.p. away is the name of that nuclear agreement just like you are. iran's a ride the also a.

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