how. is the world really getting better. a global $3000.00 special report. starts aug 19th on d.v.d. . following a very warm welcome indeed to quadriga coming to you from the heart of berlin and this week the focus is on the crisis in kashmir a territory claimed by both india and pakistan making it one of the world's most volatile flashpoints and in the latest development india's government has stripped kashmir of its long held autonomy saying it's time to bring peace and prosperity to the region but the muslim majority is furious claiming that india's ruling hindu
nationalist b j p party instead aims to change the demographics of kashmir tensions are running high and has being talk of war. so question on quadriga this week is kashmir crisis new era all power grab and to discuss not question i'm joined here in the studio by christiana wagner a senior fellow with the german institute for international and security affairs specializing on south asia he says a lasting solution to the kashmir question will only be possible if there are no border changes in the region also with his torture violence sharon said she lanny b.t.w. heard her desk he believes that once the curfew is lifted the situation in kashmir can boil over and lead to violence found a very warm welcome to 2 another 3 w.'s regional experts i'm sure about to yell from a hindu desk and isha argues that the process of economic. in the region cannot take
place without including the local people and they you know feeling very in secure about their future. thank you all 3 for being here today wonderful another student if you issue a fundamental question why is kashmir so important to india. there's a very famous saying. i'm actually it says if there's bad about it it's here it's here it's here and that was written in the 13th century even the 21st century now but the emotions still remain same so me more than just a territory is an emotion for both india and pakistan and since 947 we haven't left it it's an emotion in such a manner that if i talk about my generation we've grown up watching subsequently essential to the indian identity it's essential to what india and pakistan so i would say for my generation we've grown up watching movies very celebrated war
and we've taken a lot of pride in the fact that we've beaten pakistan and war for us is the equivalent of a cricket match that you have to win if you don't care that people are dying there and now it's the same sentiment that you see after the article 370 was revoked if you look at the language on social media if you look at the trends on twitter it's sad in a way that people of kashmir were never asked what they wanted but the rest of the country is really celebrating because it's so much important to their identity that finally we have it. turning the question around why is kashmir so important to pakistan. but for pakistan it has been an undeserved issue from the time of partition when both boxed on an india created in 1947 pakistan has shaped its foreign policy around the issue of kashmir it has had you know at
least 2 direct wars with india and another military conflict in 1909 and cargo. so it has been central to pakistan's national security paradigm it has prevented both india and pakistan to become friends to have normal relations and for pakistanis it is an emotive issue because they genuinely believe that kashmiris are being oppressed by the indian army. for a long time pakistan was supporting. by arming them. but there's also this genuine believe that midis are muslims they identify with us given a choice deva joint pakistan and studies believe that that choice was always denied by india so i went to a christian wagner has to say about all this i was talking to and it is an indian commentator here in berlin this week and she told me that things will never be the same after the recent events the events of the last 2 weeks or so is that an
estimation you share of the gravity of the crisis at the moment yes i would say things have changed fundamentally also i would argue that i see the changes more in the context of the indian or of injust democratic system because the decision of the modi government to really focus changed so they still see me as a bilateral issue with pakistan but as we've seen over the last couple of years the new government is not interested to go into any formal for negotiation with pakistan on any issue and not. on this issue especially as you know another. yeah i totally agree to him we do not see that although india has been saying that it's about electoral issue and we have to talk about this on only then we can solve it but after this after invoking article $370.35 now there's not going to be any discussion and that is very clear and that belongs to this not it of that not in
the modi gave even before he was elected in 2014 that he's there to bring about changes in the negative was that nothing has happened in the last 70 years congress was there and never did anything india is there it was a 947 and here comes the savior here comes the man who is going to change everything and that's a big change he would of course take credit for that nobody is none of the government ever managed to do something as big as this and they found all the loopholes they found out the legalities and they did it which nobody had talked about it came as a surprise to me it's interesting when you talk of a merits of i have mr moti came out and said that this week he said we as a nation as a family have taken an historic decision that's pretty telling language talking about the nation as a family it sounds there are real issues there about inclusive and exclusive but you know the indian opposition leaders have called it a historical blunder. as christine was saying there are serious concerns in india
in the manner in which you're just done for example that's going to break it down you know what has been done so one of the laws which has existed or all these years . give protection to native population in kashmir in terms of property rights and forms of all that has been scrapped and that's not unique to kashmir there are other indian states where it exists like. there are current job and that existed because there's a particular dynamics there and the government wanted to protect that that's gone now and the biggest fear is. do pundits who had to leave. a job you know 2 decades ago will now be resettled and essentially the biggest fear is that the majority will now turn into minority. and this is political and social engineering and that more the more prime minister more did not stop there if you
can get away with this one he will then focus on other parts of india where you know there are set. tendencies so for india internally it's true absolutely right that the majority is celebrating because not in the movie is popular popular populist nationalist. yet there are worries in among journalists among opposition leaders among civil rights leaders that this could lead in the not in the long run unraveling of india's secular liberal inclusive character a lot of nothing going on here but before we were going to talk about the future obviously let's just go a little bit back in time the kashmir conflict is of course been raging for decades let's go back to the time when it started. the mountainous region of kashmir has long been home to hindus when it began to be islamist in the 13th century that something internationalists have never accepted for them is the land
of the hindu goddess. the conflict over kashmir began in 1947 at the end of british colonial rule india and pakistan both claimed the region as their own triggering their 1st war for control of muslim majority country. after the war ended in 1948 kashmir was divided between india and pakistan. a line of control that's never officially recognised as the border. pakistan has more or less openly supported muslim separatists in kashmir ever since that's led to 3 more wars numerous outbreaks of violence. and terror attacks like the one on the indian parliament in delhi in 2001. and the moment by attacks of 2000 each. the stakes are higher than ever now that both india and pakistan a nuclear states. has kashmir lost its autonomy for good.
questions. has it gone it seems that way especially because if you look at the world reaction to. hardly any major world capital has been. has condemned in. august on essentially was caught by surprise that the prime minister of india can actually go ahead and do this i mean we've known all along that it was part of the party manifesto. but it was their desire for last 50 years but that actually he will do it and now that it's done box down his struggling to find out how it can react because now india is saying this is our internal matter and the reaction has been described. what is going on below the surface and.
i mean there are secessionist tendencies in many other parts of the world. in spain the scottish want to be separate from you go back canada. when you do it without involving the population in question there's always a fear that it will backfire for me right now is a dormant volcano we don't know how angry midis are because there's a complete shutdown no internet no television no media there's go fuel for last 10 days if and when the curfew is lifted and it will have to be lifted right. we will find out you know how upset. but the displeased the violence or with the more the government will divide and rule they will you know bill get some politicians on its side and. take it from there. but i am i am fearful i mean i am concerned the world doesn't appreciate it at the moment but if this goes
into violence and if bogs down and india are back on the brink of war and do nuclear omniscience then the world would have to take notice. and i hope it doesn't come down to india as being described as treating kashmir is a colony of being a fully fledged occupying force of being the master of a prison how do indians he respond to those kind of accusations by indians you mean the indian masses. the masses as i said in the beginning it's a huge emotion people are celebrating everywhere other than kashmir and if i may just go back to the map that you've shown now we see this huge territory there the left inside pakistan right inside china has a little part and internationally when we talk about admitting that the whole part discussion me bit as there is a bifurcation there you have me do you have jumbo you have the ducks being the smallest which is going to be a union territory now and there are only about 3 100000 people living the jungle
has about $6000000.00 and. 8000000 if i'm not wrong so basically john one it forms the. most of the world this jumble has the him to population kashmir has muslim so the whole conflict is about this is the muslim population decides that is there is this sentiment of we do not belong to even not being asked and if you are asking about what the government is talking about if you see how this whole event is being covered right now there are 2 very different narratives the international media is showing that that up and look at the international media is showing that there are protests there are people coming out in the street the indian media is showing that people are celebrating because in the media is going to the done thing the media is going to the people there so obviously that things are happening so we have to consider. as
a whole and then look at the picture. on many. muslims now in kashmir who are fearing that there will be an influx of hindus changing the demographics of the of the region is not likely is not on the cards i think this is certainly part of the strategy of the government in the mid to long term perspective to change the demographic scenario because with the evolution of. special status of kashmir become possible for people for me from other parts of india to go to push me to buy land also for companies to invest so we will see and this is also part of the strategy that will be in best the summit of the indian government on kashmir in october and of course the government has also. has seen it has provided legislative assembly to do you need to do union territory
of jungle and kashmir so we may also see early elections or we may see elections probably next year and then it will be difficult for the muslim parties. so far whether they will participate or not if they boycott the elections then the majority will of this new legislative assembly will be mostly hindus from hindu parties and one should also not forget that b j p already had a strong position in this part of kashmir in the last assembly elections they were had 23 percent of the waltz so i think in the long term perspective the idea is to fundamentally change the political. consolations one aspect is also that all the leaders of the major parties in the existing parties in kashmir has been put under house arrest which also shows you say fundamentally changing when you talk about people being put under house arrest that can't go on forever more there has to be a resolution to this. yes the resolution will be new elections resolutions will be
these new institutional set up of the union territory which much more limited competence is compared to in a state of union territories. administered by the whole ministry so it shows that they will have much less space yes and the political solution is to implement some form of democratic representation which will be done with new elections but the protests will go on yes i don't think new elections will solve anything in all likelihood. muslim politicians will boycott it because they feel they have not been consulted in any of this india has used its might to press ahead with this and if they do by court which is most likely as you said. the prime minister's party party party will form a government but it will be seen as a puppet government not representing the sentiment. and it will it will not solve
anything we've seen this before in kashmir you know brought india politicians like mehbooba mufti like omar abdullah. who vote brought. and 2 government who formed government but they never really represented the will of the kashmiri people and now those politicians are siding with those who are are deeply upset with india are anti indian and to me that's the whole issue the whole toxic issue of demographics are i saw a quote from one elderly kashmiri woman the other day she said it's clear that mr modi wants kashmir but not kashmiri people is that faith also or is that those that read that is the saddest part about kashmir that neither pakistan or india have really cared about the kashmiri people for the 2 governments it's a territory that they have been fighting over i am i have reported from the kashmiri line of control from the pakistani side i have seen and i've met families who live in perpetual terror in perpetual fear of crossfire and in so
many lives have been lost so many lives shattered divided. and what baffles me is the world doesn't care i mean you know we're sitting in berlin we're discussing a christian is from a reputable think that i want to know how come nobody's bothered about this. and and will it will it have to be brought to a brink of a nuclear war for people to sit up and say all we can go to take care of this it is really all remarkable why is the international community looking the other way the international community is looking the other way probably because they say it's a bilateral issue. this is the problem that. united nations resolutions from the 940 s. and fifty's have lost portions of various reasons. most obvious one is that since the fifty's china is also part of this problem 2nd point would be that we see
in kashmir at least on the indian side there has also been a strong independence movement on the. kashmiris now the independence movement is not covered by the un resolute. so it would be difficult besides some other technical issues. to make some form of referendum probably the most important movement and this is normally an independence movement which we know it from other parts of the world is not represented so in that sense one can understand the position of the international community and this has also been by very close allies of pakistan even china has always you would you have a problem was india yes but solve it on a bilateral level we have seen these bilateral negotiations the most important one was probably in 2007 when the solution was there yes so this is why the international community says you have a problem you solve it on bilateral dialogue at the moment the indian government is
not willing to go into any negotiations with india and pakistan i do not see it coming ok i just for a 2nd there in the 2 figures at the center of this ongoing crisis are the heads of government in pakistan and india 2 politicians who could hardly be more different. in. prime minister narendra modi india's fervent hindu nationalist. parties revoked articles $370.35 which guaranteed kashmir special status and autonomy from india's constitution. modi thinks this will bring him a step closer to his goal of a stop wishing india as the 2nd major power in asia alongside china. i gotta go $370.35 i gave gemini and kashmir nothing but terrorism
separatism dynastic system and corruption. this is across the border pakistani prime minister imran khan a former cricketer and playboy who's been married 3 times once a fixture of london thai society he became a devout muslim and politician later in life he now espouses conservative even extremist views. it is it can be possible that they attack us and we don't respond what will happen next things will escalate when both of us keep reacting it could lead to war action. modi or can bush got the upper hand because new contract. or certainly one interesting question the other question that i have is for christiane if you had the ear of either of the 2 leo both of the 2 leaders ideally have the say we want time what advice would you give them now or way you want them
to push this crisis i think the easiest solution and the best solution would be to settle on the status quo and this is still not ruled out one can already in one can imagine like in 2007 for us explaining yourself that there is fatigue with the status you know there isn't there is there is no disses a debate on the indian side that's that's a debate on the inside between india and pakistan wants can still agree on a solution like having the n.o.c. as a soft border this is not new it depends on the political will on both sides as i said at the moment i do not see the indians willing to negotiate with pakistan but at the end it has not changed the the overall setting for the solution within the existing territorial delimitation and and status quo ok issue your advice your wisdom for the 2 leaders. i think the best way i agree to them and i think the best way would be bilateral talks and one has to solve it like that but coming back to
watch as he was saying i don't think that we are the brink of nuclear war i think both of these populist leaders not in the more the and non-con none of them is so naive that they would get into a nuclear war. as far as their statements are concerned the v.m. runtime has reacted and then the very moody has said that there would be a new chief c.d.s. was going to look after that defense maybe an air force i think these statements you have to make because if you are populist leaders you have to make sure that people you know listening to you and then again sharing what they were you're saying and so i think my my advice would be that this that together talk and that's that would be out i don't think it's happening any time soon i mean the with. the indian government is in boulder and by lack of reaction from world community prime
minister madiba. push for their own. well what does not take him what does that tell you can see if he pushes for the room full of the biggest worry is that. you can unilaterally taken action and kashmir without consulting the local population the world sit still silently then then you think you can get away with more and who knows what else he has up his sleeves the problem for pakistan is. going to me is in trouble. the government is becoming more and more authoritarian. a lot of people are saying to the pakistani government you need to attend to problems at home you've talked about kashmir for 70 years you failed to liberated and now instead of resorting to funding jihadi elements in kashmir you need to clean up your your own house and so. i mean i think it's. but no talking. about where mr modi might take this situation i'm still curious to know what the
sort of the worst case scenario as well. because kashmir is a flash point. if things get out of hand if there's a man of the major me of india pakistan and india. and that's why i think the prevention ok will not dog now that's what we're going to have to leave you would be talking about the kashmir crisis new yr old power girl thanks very much indeed for joining us to give you some food for told to come back next week until i'm back by inches.
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