tv Markets Now FOX Business January 11, 2013 1:00pm-3:00pm EST
melissa: happy friday to you. i am melissa francis. lori: and i am lori rothman. we will tell you how to protect your investment. melissa: how worried is business ? u.s. chairman joins us in just a few minutes. lori: boeing 787 dream liner is safe. if boeing stock safe for your portfolio? melissa: if your new year's resolution is to get in shape, this one will hurt. the gym membership, at that price, they better be working out for me. [ laughter ] all right, time for stocks now
as we do every 15 minutes. lauren a sibling that he is standing by. stocks struggling today. >> holding this titrating pattern for much of the session. the dow is up seven points. energy is flat. let's take a look at wells fargo. profits hit a record high. that is good. they are not doing as many mortgages. they are the nation's biggest lender. you can see it is down by one and a quarter percent.
cheryl: how did last year's drought play out? jeff: it was pretty wild in here today. five of the past six years, this has been a limit move. take a look at what it was. we had, i think, scott shall indeed, a 26-point move. >> we had a pretty big range. jeff: this crop report is definitely a mover. take a look at this. this is the usda world agriculture supply and demand. it is down 13% on the year. acres harvested down slightly.
the stocks way down. a lot of farmers sold in this. >> we are really starting to worry about the next year. we cannot have another year like this past year. jeff: we had a lot of money come into this market when that happened last year. if we get another drought, oh baby, this could be a place to make some money. lori: it makes you wonder if mother nature has a bet on commodities. jeff flock. melissa: oh, my goodness. over half of the economy will stay stable in the next couple of months.
would you describe that as optimistic that they need to be studied? >> i think it is a relative gain. house ceos have been operating over the last three or four years now. melissa: they think the economy will be relatively stable. >> that is correct. there are a lot of different of and downs within that. you have tremendous uncertainty when you look at can actually gain market share, can imagine through the global uncertainty that is there in the economy right now. melissa: they are not that optimistic. i am surprised to hear that they even think that the economy will stay stable. we sort of have one down, three
to go if you look at the debt limit. the congressional budget cliff, as well. >> the housing market stabilizing and turning around. confidence of the consumer, it is there. but you do have that uncertainty coming from government action or lack there of. melissa: they want to focus on creating a skilled workforce. at this point, i have sort of given up on the government. i almost feel like it is the part of parents or companies. >> it is clear. ceos that we talked to, it is a combination. it has to be all considered together as they deal with that. melissa: they still feel good about the consumer?
>> the reality is you have some indications that the consumer confidence has increased. there are three things on their agenda. how can i continue to grab more consumers and give them a better consumer experience. how can i be really optimistic. third, they are very smart in terms of focusing on cost cutting right now. melissa: tell me more of what they will do in light of this. >> certain businesses that had a strong growth agenda and a diverse vacation that the play the emerging markets and tailwinds behind them, they will continue to make investments. there is a little bit more reluctant.
this is back to the bigger macro picture. particularly, that was there in the last quarter of 2012. the ceos confident looking ahead. it was because of all of that uncertainty. you only got revolutionary. melissa: you get more information and in such a small period of time. thank you. thank you for coming on. we always love it. lori: epidemic level, that is how the cdc is describing the flu. you do not need to hear it from him. look at your child's class. 7.3% of death last week was caused by the flu and pneumonia. nine out of ten regions currently have elevated flu activity ahead of the peak time which is usually late january
washington have been about u.s. troop levels after 2014. that is when the nato agreement ends. items that basically still need to be ironed out. the press conference begins in about five minutes from now. we expect a couple of questions from both of the president. we imagine questions on the relationship between the u.s. and afghanistan. melissa: there is also big news out of the white house that is getting attention. vice president biden meeting with people in video games. rich: all of the white house is interested in infringing on second amendment rights. some of the entertainment industry was here yesterday. this is all on that effort.
the vice president says he will deliver his report on tuesday about gun violence. the vice president did say that background checks seem to be something that will be a part of this increased security. we will see what those recommendations are. lori: vice president joe biden meeting with people in the videogame industry. dennis kneale at eight games stop right here in manhattan. dennis: videogame stocks are down 8% to 18% since those shootings because investors are worried to blame violent video games. david axelrod tweeted within two days of the shooting saying
maybe we should stop marketing murder. we talked to a videogame analyst earlier today. you do not have the same murder rate by gun that you have in the u.s. and other countries. >> this is a global business. they play the same games in europe and japan. they do not have the same issue. rich: todd mitchell going on to say that when you start to blame mobile games, it is politicians going after and easier target. of course, the supreme court ruled in 2011 that video games themselves are protected by first amendment rights. what can government really do?
government decided that comic books were causing juvenile billy quincey. they say the industry never recovered from that. they will make sure that they do not go through the same pain on videogames and violence today. back to you. lori: such an interesting interpretation. everyone says there really is no right answer. melissa: let's check the markets. lauren simonetti is on the floor of the new york stock exchange. >> sometimes bad news is good news. this is the biggest winner on the s&p 500. let's not take it out of context best buy shares are down by 55%. today they are good. holiday sales were flat. when analysts were expecting a decline, that becomes good news.
president. they've met today discussing the u.s. role in afghanistan after the war ends in 2014. the president is not expected to announce any further decision on further troop withdrawal. the blast occurred in a southwestern city. most of the dead were shiite muslims killed in a billiards hall. a suicide attack was followed by a car bomb minutes later. ford plans to hire 2200 salaried workers in the u.s. it marks one of the largest land increases for the country and more than a decade and will help build on the 8100 combined hourly and salary jobs that were added in the u.s. last year. those are your headlines. back to melissa and lori. lori: we like to receive that good news. thank you so much.
the s&p is hovering near a five-year high. let's not forget the economy is not going gangbusters. could inflation we are its ugly head? jeff, i know that you manage money for high net worth clients and, i suppose, what we want to know is if you can help us become one of them? >> now is a crucial time. we are about to enter mediocrity and low expectations for earnings. there is volatility. the market will have to determine the direction. there is always the possibility if you are even relatively negative on the market to find opportunity. opportunity is available in
every market. lori: the trade gap widening more than expected. goldman sachs put out a note saying they are shaving half a percentage point off to just about 1.3% growth. lackluster growth. mediocrity. where is the bull market? >> there is one course theme that makes more sense than anything to me. lori: print, print, print. >> yes. as an investor, invest in those prices. lori: will it hit the economy slowly or will it just shake things up?
>> people think that inflation will involve this broad-based inflation. inflation cannot happen during an economic slowdown. inflation and slow growth can coexist. it will affect certain asset classes more than others. lori: you are recommending buying gold and precious metals. >> gold has been so zeroed in on central bank that everyone is so worried china will pull back on their stimulus. i do not believe that will happen. i think gold will be one of the more stable assets going forward. lori: you really are the first person who is really zeroing in on inflation and planning for it. >> there are treasuries. there are levels of inflation. they have a significantly bigger
spread thin t tasuries. they performed better. lori: what is the timeframe? >> your timeframe has to be between three and five years. i think we will have a good move this year. lori: and real estate. everyone is talking about this. homebuilder stocks. >> i have a hard asset theme. real estate is such a diverse sector. a lot of people think of it as a broad-based sector. the fact is, there are things like the housing market. i believe single-family homes will begin to see appreciation. supply has been greatly reduced. demand is still there. there will be a need for
housing. there is a supply and demand function that is working well. lori: thank you so much for joining us. great to have you back. melissa: your casual dining restaurant feeling the higher taxes. sandra smith has the story in today's trade. sandra: it makes sense. if our taxes went up and our paychecks have strong that the possibility of us eating out less is a real possibility. we have an overweight rating on the stock. look at this selloff. there is concern about the current quarter.
this company is positioned. on a cash basis and a forward looking earnings base faces to exceed expectations. if there is major concern about young trans, you also see a similar stock. this is the taco bell, kfc brand. this is also over in china. concerns about the food safety in chicken and the amount of antibiotics there. they put out a big warning. a lot of analysts have backed off of that stock. ruby tuesday coming out as a little bit of a winner.
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anywhere in the country. [ male announcer ] join the millions of people who have already enrolled in the only medicare supplement insurance plans endorsed by aarp, an organization serving the needs of people 50 and over for generations. remember, all medicare supplement insurance plans help cover what medicare doesn't pay. and could save you thousands a year in out-of-pocket costs. call now to request your free decision guide. and learn more about the kinds of plans that will be here for you now -- and down the road. i have a lifetime of experience. so i know how important that is. lori: time for stocks now as we do every 15 minutes. let's head back to the floor of the new york stock exchange. check in the today with lauren simonetti. how are we looking to round out the week? >> the week is pretty good. we're up for the week, all
three major averages but today a little bit stuck. i'm looking at volume. 300 million shares at the new york stock exchange. that is a little slow. we're also seeing ratio of down stocks to up stocks, two to one, believe it or not. you count know that by looking at those platinum members looking on the screen right now. jcpenney a big loser today, down 5%. a big loser over the past 52 weeks, down 44%. ubs cutting jcpenney to sell. giving them a $13 price target. trading 13 right now. one of the issues is cash flow. ubs analyst says they may not have the money to continue the turnaround strategy. that is point of concern. back to you. lori: lauren, thanks as always. melissa: dreamliner 787 is boeing's newest and most technologically advanced plane but after a series of mishaps this week federal regulators launched a review to get to the bottom line. we bring in liz macdonald, emac. >> boeing is telling fox business it is conducting a
joint review with the faa into the design, assembly and manufacture of the boeing dreamliner 787. this airplane relies more than any other airliner on lech cam systems. it also has the lithium battery. boeing top executives at the press conference this morning out defending the airplane. take a listen. >> since entering service we logged more than 50,000 hours of flight and safely delivered more than a million passengers to their destinations. more than 150 dreamliner flights take place every single day. >> we've got also, melissa, and lori, two new incidents with 787s. basically nippon airways reporting an oil leak and another incident. boeing is saying that there have been 50 airplanes delivered. and orders for 800 more are on the way. and the faa is also saying that it does generally consider the plane to be safe. that is the reiterating also
what boeing executives are saying. they want to tell the world that the plane is safe. back to you guys. melissa: thanks so much, emac. >> sure. lori: so as elizabeth just explained and updated the faa will conduct a comprehensive review of the boeing 787 dreamliner but my next guest says these issues should pass quickly and wall street may be missing a bigger story. mike boyd, aviation consultant joins us from denver. welcome, mike. >> thank you. good afternoon. lori: the dreamliner had years of production delays, billions in cost overruns. do you think these issues pile onto a poor reputation or will they pass quickly? >> they will pass quickly. we're down to the level of reporting a oil leak? 50 airplanes in new york city had oil leaks yesterday. if a handle of lavatory breaks on a 787 it will be a story. it will pass quickly of the as boeing said it is a safe airplane. it has glitches and faa has been looking into it
constantly since the plane was first designed. lori: begs the question will it disrupt orders for 787? boeing says next year they hope to double production from five planes to 10 a month. the trouble is, boeing doesn't get paid for these equipment deliveries until they are delivered to the airline. so there's a cash flow question. >> there is but keep in mind they also have 1,000737s on order as well. they have other cash flow issues here coming in the door. let's remember too, airlines are depending upon this airplane. here in denver united wants to fly to toke yow! out of denver, nonstop. that is only plane can do it with a full load. the more the airplanes are delayed, airlines are hurt. they want to get through this still. lori: there is significant demand for boeing. you can't forget boeing surpassed airbus once again if i'm not mistaken as the biggest aircraft maker around the world. >> right. they have other computers. bombardier is combing out
with whale new airplane. they will have to keep up with that competition. this keeps boeing sharp. the more competition the better. lori: the c series from bombardier, is that formidable? what orders do they have already. >> they have 700 orders but the economics of that airplane are devastating to other airplanes. the economics will change things very much like the 787. it is on a airplane will be a big competitor with what boeing and airbus are putting out with the cost of its operation. lori: is this politics then? faa coming out saying it believes the 787 is safe but we'll still do an intensive review. what is behind that. >> that is good politics. the faa has been following the plane all the way through. they want to let the public know even though we have news stories of oil leaks and kra being this, crack that, we're on the case and they are. it is positive thing they're letting the public know about that because that
brings confidence to the plying public. >> thank you for your analysis, mike boyd. >> thank you. melissa: as the pentagon abrasions for possible $500 budget cuts over the next decade defense secretary leon panetta has warned he will begin taking steps to freeze civilian hiring and delay contract awards. additionally unpaid furloughs for civilian personnel will be created to prepare for potential cuts. if the budget cuts are not as drastic as expected, panetta hopes to minimize any effects on military readiness, making sure any preparations made now are not permanent and can be reversed. all right. so did you get a new gadget for the holidays, maybe a nook, ipad? chances are, it wasn't a pc. lori: that is so yesterday. so passe, right? apple's chief is saying china will some day be his company's biggest market. what do you think folks feel about that? let's take a look at winners and losers on the dow today or maybe treasury rates.
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in november to its widest port since april. surge in imports outpace ad modest growth in exports. the deficit widen 16% in october to $48.7 billion. a federal appeals court ruled the u.s. postal service was giving netflix unvary advantage when processing the dvd's. this is a win for game fly who argued it should get similar service. sales of game products fell 22% capping a year for the declining sales for the industry. one of the biggest reasons for the drop was lack of new products despite the release of nintendo's new videogame console, wii-u. sales tumbled 26% year-over-year. that is the latest from the fox business network, giving you the power to prosper
years. igc saying consumers opted for tablets and smartphones over personal computers. what does it all mean for the struggling pc industry? shibani joshi has the details. i would imagine not great things? >> not great things. they have a lot of work to do just to maintain sort of their market share in the overall mobile and computing space but, not good numbers. this is the first decline in pc sales on a yearly base says -- basis since the 2001 in the wake of the september 11th attacks the industry is under pressure from all the devices and gadgets you love, smartphones and everything else. igc reported saying 89.8 million pcs shipped in the fourth quarter that is down 6.4% year-over-year. looking a at year 2012, we should have the stats up here, not much better. 250 million pcs sold. that is down 3.2% from 2011. this calendar year supposed to be a little better.
instead of seeing a decline we're actually going to see growth in sales, this is worldwide, up about 2.8%. this year should be better but 2.8% growth is not usually great. usually keeps up with inflation if not that, right. lori: what about all the hype surrounding windows 8 release? i thought that would spark sales? >> every single player in the pc channel was hoping for that. everyone from intel to software-makers adobe, this is not materializing. at ces microsoft said 60 million licennes were sold first 10 works. but 60 million is not a heck of a lot considering how many pcs are out there. couple things happening. people are choosing different devices that don't work on windows 8. the other thing, people are holding onto their pcs longer, before, you used to see them replace them every five years. they're holding onto them every 10 years. macs are the reason. they're expensive. we're in a very cost sensitive environment still.
people are losing their jobs. not just this year, all around the globe. they're saying i will not pony up, 1500 bucks, 800 bucks get it with bells and whistles you're talking about $1,000. they're not willing to do it. they haven't seen the offerings to --. lori: you could use your tablet or smartphone. >> exactly. that costs a lot less. you can buy a cheap google tablet for 199 bucks. lori: stick around we want to get your reaction to our next story here. >> great. melissa: that big company in the world, has its sights set on china. apple's tim cook says he expects to take over china as the second biggest market. company says sales in china more than doubled in 2010 and dwef ven. apple's biggest challenge in china is the smartphone market which is currently dominated by google's android system. when do you think china overtakes the u.s.? do you that is near term? does he think, next five years or is that like a 20
years? >> i don't think so. three to five years it will happen. there are still so many people who don't have an iphone in china and really around the world. there is all this talk, i know you reported this week, cheap iphone that is going to come out. that lower price point is really going to be the key getting people in nations like china and india, even latin america, to jump onto the apple bandwagon. they need a cheaper device because they're expensive period. but they're very expensive to international consumers right now. melissa: interesting. shibani, thanks so much. >> thanks. lori: well it has been 15 minutes since we last checked the markets. let's send it back down to the floor of the new york stock exchange where lauren simonetti is watching a huge outsourcing winner. >> big winner. infosys, take a look at this, up 20%. that is gain of $9. the stock is at a nine-month high. it is a big winner on the day. the reason is earnings, better than expected and they had a good outlook going forward as well. what the ceo said is particularly interesting. he is saying we've done well in this quarter despite the
uncertain environment. they have a strong pipeline of large deals. however, the broader economic environment remains difficult and they are cautiously optimistic about their final quarter. so that's what is going on. it is a big winner now. as you can see that ceo, not so certain we can keep all the gains we've been seeing. lori: lauren, thanks. >> all right. melissa: so we survived the holidays, not to mention the fiscal cliff. i don't know about you, but i am ready for a vacation. lori: are we out of it yet? i don't know if i have. travel view joins us with the top five places to go without blowing the budget. that is next. ♪ [ male announcer ] this is joe woods' first day of work. and his new boss told him twongs -- cook what you love, and save your money.
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melissa: are you ready for a vacation but maybe your wallet isn't? have no fear, there are real deals to be had this year. travelzoo's senior editor is here with his top five money saving vacation picks. thanks for joining us. we've been waiting for this segment all hour. >> it is time, right? time to head out of town. melissa: that's right. you have great tips. before we get to the destinations package travel is cheaper and also to look for seasonalty that maybe you want to look for places where it's shoulder season. is that right? >> that's it. certainly packaging vacations can be a real money saver for you. air fare went up last year. we're expecting air fare to remain high or creep upward in 2013. bundling air fare with hotel stay, activities, more you put together right off the top bigger savings certainly could be.
seasonality, huge price driver. new york city, today, you can get a great hotel in mid tan manhattan under 150, or $100. melissa: because it is freezing. no one wants to come here. but let's get to destination you like as well. ireland. there are deals in ireland right now? why? is the weather there horrible as well? >> yeah. 2013 is the year of the gathering in ireland. it is cooler this time of year but even for summer travel we're seeing good bargains the gathering, anybody who thinks they have irish roots invited to visit ireland throughout the year. festivals, concerts. major events, many for free. a lot of value on the ground. we're seeing vacation providers specializing in travel usually to the caribbean putting together ireland packages. we'll see more competition and better pricing. >> alaska is obviously arctic for this time of year, but for the whole year this could be a good deal for a cruise to alaska. how come? >> it is all about availability. we'll see princess and
celebrity put new ships on alaskan itineraries come may. more cabins to fill means lower prices. already we're seeing promotions seven night cruises round-trip from vancouver, 700, some cases under $500 per person. may through september best bet finding deal. june, july, august will be pricier. lori:. melissa: alaska in the summer is gorgeous. the sun never sets that is good if you want do active things. >> not if you want to fall asleep. melissa: that's right. you also say new zealand is a good choice right now. a lot being driven by the hobbit? >> absolutely. there is no doubt new zealand is trying to leverage the success of the new hobbit film. here is now an attempt to really bring it back up. we're seeing air new zealand adding new flights to new zealand out of san francisco in april. hawaiian airlines adding flights in march to
new zealand. more flights. more available seats should bring pricing down both for air fare and vacation packages on the west coast as well. melissa: colombia gets a bad rap. you say that is good place to travel right now? >> colombia knows there is image issue. tourist folks have tongue in cheek catchy phrase, only risk is wanting not to leave. there is dubious past in colombia. in the last 10 years there is extra investment by major hotel chains, hilton, j.w. marriott, intercontinental adding new reports on the ground. spirit airlines, jetblue, adding new flights down to colombia. much of the negative image is starting to dissipate. some issues in the south of the country but a lot of destinations to the north and middle part of colombia maybe it viable and attractive destinations for south america. melissa: finally nyeing a gra falls -- niagra falls. >> quintessential honeymoon
destination. niagra falls is example of a destination taking example of improving feeling for the economy. aggressive pricing on properties coming out of niagra falls. they're expanding scope of tourism and casinos. it is towns on the border and wine country making a splash these days as well. melissa: gabe, thank you. i love those ideas. lori is packing her bags. >> there we two. lori: i'm wondering if they still have heart-shaped beds in little niagra falls hotels? melissa: i didn't know what you were going to say. lori: didn't sell me on colombia. thinking niagra falls. melissa: ireland. lori: those pictures were spectacular. if you're new resolution is to get in shape, one gym is offering a ultimate experience for the small price of 25 grand. melissa: what!. lori: they are offering a top of the line workout experience in new york city and greenwich, connecticut.
they offer freshly lawn dered workout@tire. melissa: i would hope so. lori: private showers and changing cabanas and two training sessions a week with elite training program. what else does the $25,000 annual fee buy you? entrance by retina scan. i think i would pay $10 a month for my gym and it is just fine. melissa: can you imagine, spend that $25,000 and then you don't work out? lori: other thing, exactly to your point you will not procrastinate if you're having to foot that bill. melissa: i guess. if you do that you have money to burn and don't care. lori: they better do the exercise for me. melissa: they better work out for me. is liposuction included in that $25,000? i don't know. bob mack done neal joins me for a an interview for the new plan to eliminate the state's 17.5% gas tax can you believe that? i can't believe it is that high. how he wants to raise the state sales tax to
compensate from 5 to 5.8%. that is tiny. that is 5:00 eastern on fox business. can't wait to crunch the numbers. lori: look forward to that. the trading day is still underway. keep it here on "markets now. ." we have former counsel tell of economic advisors member matthew slaughter says we have to talk action right away. he joins those two partners in crime, tracy and ashley next. don't miss it.
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ashley: wells fargo posting a record profit saying many of its mortgage legacy issues are behind it. fbr analyst paul miller says the results can tell us what is coming down from all of the banks and he will tell us exactly why this hour. tracy: that will be good. higher taxes, smaller paychecks. how should you adjust your budget? high net worth advisor barbara ross has important tips to protect your money. ashley: all right. tracy: top of the hour. time for stocks as we do every 15 minutes. lauren simonetti on the floor of the new york stock exchange. lauren, we're red and green, red and green. we keep crossing the flat line. >> we are. one of those days with two more hours left in the trading day. stocks now all in the red, down eight points. really this day could end any way because the markets are so flat. let's look what is who having -- moving on the dow. a lot are moving on pretty substantial shares. boeing shares have been weak all day down more than 3%. faa launching an investigation into the 787 dreamliner. american express surprisingly up half a
percent even though they're cutting more than 5000 jobs. investors seem like the cost cutting initiative. chevron as well. merck is interesting. they're taking steps to pull a cholesterol drug off the market. that stock is up today as well. of course bank of america, selling off on the news of wells fargo's earnings. back to you. tracy: stock was up like 83% over the last year or something. it can give a little back. all right, the s&p 500 still hovering nee a five-year high. do stocks have more room to run? our next guest seems to think so. he says the s&p will hit a 20-year high in 2013. rob morgan, chief investment strategist at fulcrum securities. rob, we look at it from the march 2009 lows, the s&p is actually up like 1150%. and you're saying you think it can keep going. >> yeah, tracy. i guess, it sound counterintuitive. a lot of people are saying, you know, well, as you said,
we're close to the a five-year high, but at the same time that's made sentiment very bad. people are expecting a market, a market drop. and, but you look at everything else and of course bad sentiment is good for stocks. that gives us a wall of worry. look at thinks like the technical indicators. you look at things like expanding earnings through 2013 for the s&p 500. and even if we hit a record high on the s&p 500 by the end of the year, if earnings go where they're supposed to go, where they're projected to go, that still means the s&p 500 is about 14 times earnings. so that's still historically cheap. ashley: rob, i was interested in your notes. you say that, you say the dollar will trend up this year as the fed could very well end qe and even raise rates. i'm interested because i haven't seen any clue of that in what the fed has been saying up to now? >> well, you bring up a good point there, ashley. you know the fed is going to stick with the gameplan they
have in place which is of course, currently over 80 billion a month in quantitative easing, until the day they decide not to. and at that point. so, and i'm not saying it's a definite they are going to raise rates but i do think at some point in 2013 they're going to stop quantitative easing. there is an outside chance they will raise rates this year and i don't think they will really telegraph that until that fed meeting day when they say, hey, this is what we're doing. tracy: talk about some of uric s. you are overweight small caps. this a little bit of a turn for you in your portfolio? >> yes. tracy: this move to small caps. many saying that this russell bubble is going to pop. >> well, and tracy, that is a change for me and back to what ashley mentioned there, that with the dollar rising this year as i would expect, that's going it be a negative, that will put some headwinds on big cap multinationals. you combine that with the fact that you have the
dividend tax rates going up and big caps in general pay better dividends than small caps, that has caused me to change that small caps should have a pretty good year, should outperform the s&p 500 as i said think will do pretty well in and of itself and yeah i think we started to see some of that at the end of 2012. ashley: rob, i also see you like financials but really banks need economic growth to get a better yield. do you really expect that kind of growth this year? >> well, you know, i think, ashley, first of all bank stocks are so cheap, and i'm not really focusing on necessarily the big money center banks. wells fargo had a nice report today, even though the margins continue to be under pressure. so none of my buys would necessarily be in the big money center banks. more the insurance plays, some of the regionals and other niche financials. tracy: hey, rob, before we let you go, would you recommend people just own the index, own the s&p 500
index straight out if you think it's going higher? >> well, tracy, i'm always, i'm in the stock picking business so i would encourage people to try to go with a stock-picker, but certainly it could be a year where the s&p 500 beats professional money managers. it's possible that that could happen, sure. tracy: it is a question for a lazy investor like myself. rob morgan, fulcrum securities, thank you, sir. >> thanks, tracy, ashley. ashley:. tracy: he is great. ashley: he is. president obama holding a news conference with afghan president hamid karzai right now focusing on u.s.-afghan relations and troop levels. rich edson at the white house with the very latest. rich? >> well, ashley that is the real question in this relationship. after jean-rene fourtou when the nato -- after 2014 will there be any legal protection with the wind down in troops. president obama announcing a
change in mission. take a listen. >> starting this spring, our troops will have a different mission training advising, assisting afghan forces. it will be a historic moment. >> president obama says we can expect the next drawdown announcement in the next few months. also at the white house starting really in less than 15, 20 minutes or so, vice president joe biden meeting with videogame executives. this is part of a lengthy series, going on for a week. vice president joe biden leading a coalition on gun violence. he will write a report or offer a report to the president. he will deliver it on tuesday. we have a head's up on which videogame companies will be here it includes a number of them. activision, electronic arts, epic games, software ratings board, gamestop and a few others that is supposed to start at about 2:15. back to you. ashley: rich edson, thank
you very much. we have many so breaking news for you. the federal budget deficit on track to reach one trillion for a fifth straight year. the federal deficit grew just 260 million in december. tracy: just? ashley: just, for the first three months of the fiscal year, the deficit is now $292 billion. tracy: just. ashley: out of control. all right. much more to come this hour including a special anniversary for one of the banking world's worst possible deals? at least dubious at best. we'll have the details on that. tracy: plus boeing's dreamliner under review by the faa is it still safe? liz macdonald is on this story. as we do every day at this time of day let's look how oil is trading. the dow down about three points. oil down half a percent. $9331 a barrel. we'll be right back
tracy: the dow is flat but charles payne is here to teach you how to make some money aniaway. charles looking at a construction equipment giant, titan machinery. i just like the name. >> got to like the name. is that greek or roman mythology? roman, right? the titans. tracy: yeah. >> before the olympians. here we go. the titan machinery, today deere stock hit a 52-week high. caterpillar is on fire. they do retail sealing. they sell case equipment. people like them. they're in the heartland, north dakota. tracy: fargo, north dakota. >> there you go. i got to tell you i got whacked on this stock. i was shocked. they had two quarters in a row where they missed. i think they're betting their bearings. the overarching investment thesis is still the same. we know farmers are making a ton of money. ashley: yeah. >> now construction is coming back. in fact they bought a
construction operation in arizona. they're beginning to ex-papd their operations. i love the evaluations. trading 10 pe. 60 to 40 peg ratio, one-third sales. the stock looks so, so cheap. it is beginning to come back. i have subscribers around 20 and around 34. i think the stock is in the middle and could break out to around 36. this is where all the money is. i think expectations maybe got high. you do get worry because i never seen a year like, say a company misses two quarters ago that it doesn't miss again. that will be one of the big risk factors. ashley: the industry, that is the problem. they need volume. >> they need volume but you know what? ashley: it picks up. >> i think it will pick up. by the way the rental business they're getting into. their rental fleet is worth 105 million from 62 million. i think that will be the key. i think they will make a lot of money. tracy: dirty fingernail. >> there you go. tracy: i said dirty finger. i have to correct myself.
it is, a dirty fingernail rally. allow me to clean that up for everybody. >> i can tell you're ready for the weekend. ashley: wow. tracy: i had to clarify. >> yes you did. ashley: glad you did. we obviously missed it. tracy: the children didn't get it. >> i bet tweeters are going nuts already. ashley: get your fingers started. chars, thank you very much. >> see you later. ashley: president obama set to give the state of the union address on february the 12th, just days before the treasury yeah, run out of money to pay its bills. on top of that it is president link ton's birthday and mardi gras. get ready for quite the party. we're also about a week away from the president's inauguration. there is already an a-list lineup for the inaugural balls. we didn't get an invite. katy perry, smokey robinson, alicia keys. brad paisley. a little for everyone. big stars among the
performers. should we have a big blowout party when we can't pay the bills. tracy: good question. put it on the credit card. >> the corporations paying for it, same ones that were demonized in the election process. ashley: hoping to garner favor. tracy: there are all these gala affairs. when president bush inaugurated they tallied how many minutes laura danced at them, 8 minutes, 54 seconds at 10 different affairs. >> she will beat that in one dance. ashley: who does that? tracy: we in the media. ashley: oh god. tracy: all right. i'm looking for at least 10 minutes out of you. it's quarter after. as we do every 15 minutes we check the markets. lauren simonetti on the floor of the new york stock exchange. looking at some retailers. >> yes, two retailers. one putting in a good day, one putting in a bad day but for the past year both of these stocks are down dramatically. do jcpenney first.
look at that, selling off by nearly 4%. it was doing better than earlier. ubs downgrading the stock. concerned about its cash flow. concerned about its turnaround strategy and for the past 52 weeks, jcpenney down 44%. i want to show you the big winner, best buy. volume here is tremendous. more than two times the average daily volume. this could be a bullish signal we're starting to like best buy again. stocks up 15% even though down by about 15% over the past 52 weeks. the news out of best buy today its holiday sales didn't decline here in the u.s. they were flat. sometimes flat is good. we'll take it. back to you. tracy: we'll see you in a few minutes. ashley: lauren, thank you. tracy: well the debt limit, weeks away, washington might not be paying attention yet but american businesses are tackling the issue head on. former council of economic advisors members matthew slaughter will weigh in
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>> just about 20 minutes past the hour. i'm arthel neville with your fox news minute. president obama and afghan president hamid karzai have agreed to slightly speed up plans for the military transition. both leaders have been meeting at the white house to discuss the u.s. role in afghanistan after the war formally ends in 2014. they both spoke and took questions at a press conference that just ended. bombings in pakistan have claimed at least 120 lives in the worst day of violence there in five years. the blast occurred in the southwestern city of quetta. most of the dead were shiite muslims killed in a billiard hall targeted by sunni extremist. the suicide attack was followed by a car bomb four minutes later. ford plans to hire 2,000 sallied workers in the u.s. in manufacturing and information technology. it marks one of the largest planned increases for the company in more than a
decade and will help build on the 8100 total u.s. jobs ford added last year. those are the headlines. get you back to tracy. tracy: arthel, thank you very much. have a great weekend. >> you too. tracy: dreamliner 787 is boeing's newest and most technologically advanced airplane but after a series of mishaps, federal regulators launched a big ol' review. we get to the bottom line with liz macdonald. >> a fuel leak. fire. two more incidents on nippon airways. what happened, that's right, the press conference this morning boeing saying they're going to do a joint probe of the 787 dreamline and boeing officials were out in full force saying they have complete confidence in the plane, take a listen. >> since entering service we have logged more than 50,000 hours of flight and safely delivered more than a million passengers to their destinations. more than 150 dreamliner flights take place every single day. >> boeing is also saying,
get this, that you know, the problems with the 787 are no worse than when 777 was introduced in the mid-'90s. ashley: right. >> what is speaking the markets, boeing was one of the biggest losers if not the biggest one on the dow today it also relies more heavily on electrical systems than other airplanes and the lithium battery is a huge problem because we know that lithium battery caused fires and all sorts of problems in laptops and mobile phones. ashley: they overheat. >> that's right, device. if they fix that problem, you know, if they get rid of the battery, maybe that makes the stock better for investors. ashley: fuel problem, that fuel leak turned out to be a mistake by the ground crew. >> that's right. ashley: so they are the victim of being under a microscope but there is no doubt --. tracy: with all due respect what is he going to say? he has got to say it is safe. ray lahood, said, of course i would fly in those planes. what are they going to say, no, i'm scared to death? >> when you hear electricity
and when you hear lithium batteries and when you hear fire that spooks investors. if they swap out the battery. the lithium battery is lighter version, hey we'll go for safety and use heavier battery in the electrical systems maybe that would be answer but we'll find out when this probe, this joint probe comes to a conclusion within coming weeks. ashley: great stuff, liz. >> sure. ashley: emac, thank you. as washington moves closer to the debt ceiling deadline our next guest says the debt limit must be raised to avert what he calls how is that affecting businesses? a former member of the coins of economic advisors under president bush. matthew, thank you for joining us. simplely put, there is no option in your opinion we have to raise the debt ceiling. what happens if we don't?
>> that is great question to which honestly no one knows the answer and i hope we don't find out the answer. it is not like the united states government is a small business that gets three bills a day and if cash flow is a little short one day they can just pay two ever the bills. millions of payments get made by the federal government every day and we just don't know, especially given the fragility of the economy and capital markets what will happen one day, one week, one month goes by where the u.s. government is defaulting on different obligations. ashley: countries defaulted before the, lost their aaa rating and managed to turn it around and recover abe able to borrow money from the markets. is this a wake-up call? god forbid we do not raise the limit and we're unable to pay our bills but maybe the kind of shock needed to get our spending under control? >> so that could be an outcome. and you're right, there is a lot of historical evidence over the many years of countries losing access to capital markets because of default but one important
consideration is, even when they regain access to capital markets it tends to take many years or decade to fully regain the confidence of international investors. second, there is a lot of economic hardship that tend to come along the way. look at argentina over the past decade since their large sovereign default the argentina economy today is struggling. seems a little bit like the classic bill murray movie of groundhog day. we're here back like we were in summer of 2001, same basic issues. some extent of absence of leadership in washington to address this issue. yes we have a major fiscal problem that will turn into a crisis in the next generation if spending isn't controlled in some systemic way. reaching the point of trying to address the spending challenge and pro-growth taxation through the debt ceiling is a very dangerous and kind of risky strategy i think for our country to pursue. ashley: matthew, look, if a family maxes out all its credit cards, it has to take action. it still has, they still get
revenue because they're working. the government gets revenue because they're getting taxes. you have to reallocate, budget and live within your means. what's wrong with that? >> well, one big difference between yours and mine family and the federal government is, last time i checked my credit wasn't the key asset the world peg as lot of capital markets off of in terms of continuing the risk-free assets in the world. that is the part of the unknowability. if there is default by the u.s. government it is hard to know what the economic impact will be in terms of capital markets, what that will do to portfolio holdings around the world. more important what might happen to the confidence of household businesses and in america and rest of the world? our economy is fairly sluggish. job creation is barely above the rate needed to sustain the growth in the population in the labor force. so, the metaphor there, there is some parallel, which yes, we have a deficit problem and debt problem in america today.
we need to start to address that somehow. it would be great to have leadership that prevents us from going through the same kinds of things we did summer of 2011, in a way that starts to address that and a way that gives more confidence to households and to businesses. ashley: you're absolutely right. we do need some leadership. no doubt about it. matthew slaughter, tuck school of business. matthew, thanks so much for joining us. >> my pleasure. thank you. ashley: thank you. tracy: that is understatement we need some leadership. ashley: yep. tracy: casual restaurants feeling the pinch from tighter wallets. so which stocks could get hit the hardest? sandra smith is on the trade next. ashley: first let's take a look at some of today's winners and losers. essentially flat on the dow today but there are some winners. look at best buy, up 15% right now. monster beverage having a monster day up almost 4 1/2%. we'll be right back.
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i have a lifetime of experience. so i know how important that is. ♪ ashley: the dow, the components, as you can see, the green just about -- slightly over the losers, signifying the day we've had, basically flat on the day. going to the floor of the new york stock exchange as we do every 15 # minutes, and lauren is there. lauren? >> hey, ashley. we are improving at this hour. dow higher by 12 points and nasdaq found positive territory, and s&p down not even a point. the advance, decline volume here at the new york stock exchange, it's firmed a little bit. we are doing a little bit better in the past hour. look at ford. this company added to goldman sach's conviction buy list, an annual high hit earlier today,
up 1% on the day. the news is is that ford is hiring 2200 workers this year. many of them white collar positions like engineers, those in information technology, ect. so auto sales have been strong. the average car on the road is 11 years old, a record high, people buying new cars, and ford is a beneficiary of that. back to you. ashley: thank you very much. tracy: paychecks getting smaller, and popular casual dining restauranting feeling the bite. higher taxes coming out. how do you buy dinner? who are the potential winners and losers? sandra smith has today's trade. >> getting less money into the paycheck and going into the bank account, you consider how much you eat out, and there is a fear out there talking with analysts today who cover casual dining chains. i was actually talking to brine elliot who said it is a real risk and a real concern to the restaurants when folks do see
less in the paychecks. they eat out less historically. yum brands, despite the concern out there, there's an overweight ratings. there is a big warning from the company this week about a slow down in china. that's why there's a selloff earlier in the week warning on monday. they apologized for the chicken probe over there, concern about the amount of antiby -- antibiotics used. brian elliot covers ruby tuesday where shares this week alone lost 6% of their value. the restaurant chain, don't be surprised to see a few less people eating out there. on wednesday, the company reported the fourth quarter earnings, missed earnings forecast; however, when talking to elliot, he's an out performed rating with the stock, $8.50 believing they are in a cash
position to out perform the peers. he likes the evaluation on the company. a forecast for less to eat out, others manage the expectations well. he points to ruby tuesday as one of those. we know the cheesecake factory. there's optimism among analysts there as well. over the past week, lost ground, but over the past year, up 10%. the good news is they have growth outside the u.s.. even though there's a slow down here at home, they just opened the largest cheesecake factory in dubai. they are expanding internationally, a positive for that company now. ashley: back to you. tracy: that's dairy though, i thought they don't eat dairy? ashley: they have chuck e.
cheese. tracy: really? ashley american symbols. forget the religious symbols. ashley: banking analysts says there's a lot to like about the results. he's here next. tracy: let's look at the ten and 30-year treasuries as we head out to break. ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] is is karen anjeremiah. they don't know it yet, but they' gonna fall in love, get married, have a couple of kids, [ children laughing ] move to the country, and live a long, happy life together where they almost never fight about money. [ dog barks ] because right after they get married, they'll find some retirement people who are paid on salary, not commission. they'll get straightforward guidance and be able to focus on other things, like each other, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade. [ male announcer ] how do you turn an entrepreneur's dream...
♪ lori: your physical examination business brief, a bankruptcy court judge approved kodak's plan to sell pa tents for $525 million. it's just a fraction of the more than $2 billion kodak hoped for, but allows the company to move forward with the plan to emerge from bankruptcy during the first half of this year. merck suspending the sale of the cholesterol drug following a recommendation from the european medicine agency committee. it was under review in europe after a major study raised safety concerns. new york resolution to be in shape? one gym offering an experience of a price tag of a mere $25,000. there's a top of the line workout experience in new york city and connecticut. that's the latest from the fox business network, giving you the power to prosper. ♪
tracy: a link between violence and video games? well, that's what vice president joe biden hopes to get to the bottom of meeting with the industry. today, dennis kneale outside a a game stop with more on that. hey, den. >> how are you, guys? the video game reps meeting just getting underway, and you have the health secretary, and you have representative of four of the companies that have been profoundly effected, their stock prices have, since the connecticut shooting. activision and game stop. people question what could be done, and they say video games are not to blame. we talked to two guys today, one, daniel greenberg with the
international game developers association who had something to say about it, and another stock analyst,ed to mitchell, how's com we don't have these problems in countries where they play video games more. >> violent video games do not produce real world violation. it's never been proven. >> this is a global business. kids play the same games in europe and japan, and they don't have the same issue. it's not the proliferation of guns in the country. >> and so there you have it from two voices. yet, this has not stopped video game stocks from falling since the connecticut shootings. you know, activision down 8%. electronic arts down 10% or so, take two down 15% or so since the shootings, and game shot down most of all, down 18%.
this is because investors are worried government will crack down, but there's a couple problems there. the supreme court ruled in 2011, video game developers have first amendment rights. tough to crack down on them going after guns. people say they are just going after the easier target of video games because it's too hard to go after guns. back to you in the studio. tracy: dennis, thank you, very, very much. breaking news. oil closing down 26 cents for the day at $93.56 a barrel. u.s. crude futures rose 47 cents, one-half of 1%. ashley: earnings seasons underway. wells fargo kicking it off, beating estimates, but shares down as the bank's net interest margin tumbled in the fourth quarter. joining me, paul miller, capital markets, paul, thank you for joining us. you looked at the report, gone
through the numbers. what's your take overall? >> you know, it was basically in line quarter. it was down more than we expected, but it was mainly driven, attracted a lot of deposits over the quarter, over 50 billion, and they were not able to put them to work over the quarter, and that drove it down. we've been looking for contraction across the industry, and that -- and it's also -- it's coming from just low yields in general, flowing through the system. until we get real economic growth, until we get rates moving up because the rare economic growth, there's continued pressure across the industry, not just wells with the net interest margin. ashley: aggressive on the lending side, but just about volume because of the yields? >> you know, what they said they saw was very strong growth in the commercial lending arm towards the end of the quarter. that's a positive. does that continue through the first quarter and second quarter? i don't know. you know, it just goes back to
economic growth. we need to get the economy back started again. we need to have real growth above 5%. we have to get unemployment rates down for real for these banks too work from the levels. ashley: that's interesting, paul, you know, wells expanded its securities business and other banks scaled back theirs or jumped out all together. a good move or not, do you think? >> you know, it's a good way to park that liquidity, that extra liquidity they get rather than getting, you know, 50 or 60 basis points with the fed. not every bank has downsized securities portfolio. a lot are growing it, but you are correct. the problem with that is that you take on some duration risks growing that portfolio, and, you know, it's just a low yielding asset, and so, therefore, a lot of guys have not done it. i'm not concerned about it. it's not that big of a deal, i think, for wells fargo. ashley: paul, the other thing, 2012 brought us close to, especially to a bank like wells
fargo, boom, refinancing can want go on forever. they cut so much on that this year; right? >> that's another concern is that the pipeline of applications was done 20%. a lot of people pointing at that saying the refinance boom is declining. we're on the opposite side of the trade believing it will be robust in 2014 and have elevated levels because people have an economic incentive to refinance and capacity unable to grow because of the regulation out there that's brand new relative to a couple years ago. that's an area we like mortgage banking, but you're right. that's causing some of the noise to people trading that off also today. ashley: switching gears, paul. the five year an anniversary of bank of america, teaming up, taking over country wide. we have a little graphic up for you, happy 5th anniversary. is this going to be considered probably one of these worst, you
know, contracts or acquisitions in corporate history? certainly in banking history? >> yeah. i'm not -- i'm not smart enough to judge corporate history, but it's up there. i mean, i think the last count is they lost over $40 billion on that transaction. yes, it was a very poorly timed transaction. country wide should have been left to fail. everybody would have been better off if that company failed. would have known of these issues, all the problems came from that country wide acquisition. ashley: think about that every day. palm miller, thank you so much for joining us, appreciate it. >> thank you. tracy: all right, quarter til, time for stocks. lauren on the floor of the new york stock exchange. looking at tech movers, i hear? >> yeah, apparently what we didn't buy over the holidays were pcs. there's a report saying holiday pc sales fell for the first time in five years, and two stocks falling on that news, dell and
wp. a 2% decline in hp weighing on the dow today up by 2.5 pounds. we found the plus column. shares in facebook up 7% this week, of course, ahead of the big event tuesday, that mystery event, what will they unvail? look at the levels of facebook, 31.64, it's inching closer to the ipo price, but mark with gray wolf execution partners says there's meaningful resistance at 32.85. back to you. ashley: i think mark has a new hoody. that's the announcement. tracy: i'll wear mine they day. the reality of smaller paychecks in 2013 setting in. net worth adviser says the smartest ways to adjust the budget now. ashley: more of today's winners and losers, the dow on the flat line up three points. we'll be right back.
♪ tracy: payroll tax holiday did not survive congress' fiscal cliff deal, and as a result, millions of workers have smaller paychecks. how should you adjust your budget now? tax expert rcl advisers co-founder. barbara, glad you are here. people are confused. be clear, first, as far as tax preparation goes in 2012. people start doing returns. not a lot they need to worry about because everything was kickedded down the road. 2013 now, a lot of people getting paychecks and they are
bummed about it, especially if you made more than $110,000 in 20 # -- 2012, once you hit that, you did not pay in social security at all, and now you are and at 6.2%. >> you should have adjusted your savings so that it wouldn't have felt different, but nobody does that, but, please, do this every single year. tracy: how about this because i heard people lowering their 401(k) to make up the difference. >> look at it that i'm not going to have as much money to save and spend anymore. look at the budge. every single budget has something that can be reduced. every single budget can be reduced. tracy: frustrating because we have, we the american people, got ourselves really in pretty good shape over the last 30
years. now you say we have to do it again? >> well, no, live fiscally prudent just like the government has to; right? so people spend a boat load of money, i mean, how many tvs does a person have to have? tracy: i think the problem is it was a tease because like you said, there was a lot of other things we paid, they took it away, did, created a little stimulus, and now they took it back. it was a tease. >> yeah, exactly. it was important for the economy so we didn't throw ourselves into a recession because the government knows that if they give you more money, you spend it because you're not fiscally prudent. if you took that extra money they gave you because your taxes went down and saved it, you would be so much better off, but people are not disciplined. just put discipline in your life this year. do not just adjust your savings down. adjust your spending down. you will be so much better off in time because you know what?
then it's going to be easier to retire. tracy: yeah, well, a great point. talk about now investment income though. this is something you can take hold of it right now. >> yeah, you can do so. tracy: let's talk. dividends up 25% if you make $450,000 as a marrying filing joint. what do you do? >> it's higher than 20%. it's 25%. it's a lot higher. what you do, i mean, as you know, other than choosing your financial adviser, the most important decision you make on the portfolio is asset allocation and make decisions based on risk adjusted return expectations. look at an after tax dollars. dividends are much more expensive for you know because you're not going to be able to keep as much as those dividends so you probably should look at repositioning -- tracy: ira or something? gla yeah. if you put high paying dividends stocks in an ira and growth things in your own name, good
idea. tracy: quick, we got to run, but short term capital gapes gsh gains now, 39.6% plus the 3.8% on top of it, over 40%. taking short term capital gains can be detrimental. >> absolutely. tracy: right? >> yeah. wait until it's long term unless it's going to plummet. look at it from how much do i think it's going to go down? what's the risk adjusted return after tax? look at things in after tax return dollars. tracy: traders of the world not happy with this. nice to see you. ashley: important messages there. usda final crop report out and grain prices moving on the news. jeff flock has the latest, jeff? >> a heck of a move in corn, a heck of a move in wheat. this is the soybean, though, pit, this is meal and oil, not so much in soybean, but look at the day in corn. we had, like, a 26 cent move, a pretty good move.
>> it's a very big move, not just in corn or wheat, but all the markets responded well, and it was a big tussle. we started out a big tussle, hesitation, and now we're backing off getting into the close, but nonetheless, you have supported fundamentals here with the corn market as well as wheat. >> look at the corn market, up close, looking at the was, world agriculture supply and demand estimates, down 13% on the year, though, and stocks, down 17% year over year. that's huge; right? >> it's, you know, jeff, it's huge, and not only that, they cut stocks despite the fact of an increase, 5 # -- 55 million bushels in corn. you had an increase in stock levels. the bottom line here is there's less corn around that we know of right now than there was three months ago. >> that is long term bullish for prices, and i'll tell you, we've already priced ourselves out of
overseas markets already, and that's the catch 22 of the situation. we like high prices sometimes, but that means grain from brazil and argentina is more affordable and attractive. folks. ashley: jeff, thank you very much. >> you got it. ashley: liz claman back from vegas, going through the last hour of trading. howard talking bonds and whether the party there is over. also, stocks doing best with the all-clear signal now to get in with the markets at five year highs. that's next in a fox business exclusive, "countdown to the closing bell" is next. you hav ♪ th our long-term goals, not their short-term agenda. [ woman ] if you have the nerve to believe that cookie cutters should be for cookies, not your investment strategy. if you believe in the sheer brilliance of a simple explanation. [ male announcer ] join the nearly 7 million investors