tv Markets Now FOX Business November 7, 2013 1:00pm-3:01pm EST
wireless carrier has voluntarily given the government the users call data. >> but first we will go to nicole petallides at that new york stock exchange looked as stocks overall in the red but it looks like it is trying to you raised the losses after all the excitement. >> let's just turn off with the major market averages of six indexes to the upside the dow was out 15,700 just a loss over one-third of 1% in the s&p 500 is down just a bit but the ec moved unexpectedly with the euro dropping in the dollar's erkhart it taking off but
commodities our lower in major market averages are pulling back. with the $26 ipo opening at $45.10 now is $45.89. now of the value is beyond facebook we have seen the back-and-forth action although they state it is still fairly priced. back to you. >> with the opening price of $45 and $0.10 a share the market capstans at more than toward the $4 billion hit for that kind evaluation it will top some icons like alcoa has a market cap of $10.3 billion tiffany is in .1 and twitter is even bigger than delta that is 22.9 billion and at that level it would rank as number 164 on the s&p 500
despite the optimism my first guest says it is overblown. paul, we appreciate you being here. why do you think this is more hype? >> good day. first of all, in the social media space you have to look a.n.c. where other deals are priced and where they are treated. if the deal opens in the mid-20s it probably would have been better for the company over the short term but if you look at the past it feels frothy and has a small of early 2000 and compares very similarly with facebook and link can essentially doubling table and is never a good thing unless you have the application to sell into it
you're probably looking at a pullback for a deeper correction than a better rally later. adam: will that be within a week or two weeks? >> let's get facebook or yelp it collapsed but there were other things and also put that aside but with the help it peaked right away then opel back with a much better rally but linked in from the high on day one it collapsed almost 50% in the first month so to me the model is an know who paid $50 or more but several people did a and the healthy thing would be the stock gently pulls back over the next one or three weeks and you have a better rally after that. adam: if you look six months down the road i am looking
at a metric the global saturation is pretty impressive with 21 percent of the smart phones have twitter. facebook you could call them a competitor 75% so it seems twitter has a long way to go with that saturation of the smart phone but how do they make money on advertising? the losses are growing at the same pace revenue is increasing. isn't that troubling? >> but all this money in the company's coffers give them opportunities to make the acquisitions so from a purely fundamental standpoint i am not concerned yet. what you mentioned is cause for concern weiner 12 months down the road but that is a lot of money to make acquisitions to make yourself into a better company based on history
this is not good for the company or the stock market in general. adam: facebook showed they could monetize but i also hear analysts ask how will that make money off of two-thirds of the foundation that is overseas? some said they had even already lost in asia. >> they are not new to the party the points our valid but for me i typically stay away from the whole sector until they mature a little bit. rather be late and make money or be early and to use a lot. adam: i think that device shows that those who wait could have better gains. thank you very much.
lori: now that has been trading a couple hours have to the underwriters feel? we will bring it in charlie gasparino. it suggests that money was left on the table? >> they were shooting at a $40 for the open but the looking at the intraday charge is interesting because it suggested opened at 45 but it really all bin dash 499 it has been down ever since. the underwriters want the price any retail or average investor that said this is playing with fire because you will not get a 45 or definitely not at 27 or 26 per you will get it at 48 and it is straight down ever since. that is the problem with the average investor playing the
ipo game. i will say it again for the opening printed is important because that is what the little guy is stuck with and you don't get any shares but we should point out the amount of shares is outstanding is so small. that is a problem i think the underwriters did a good job. twitter did not want to do a facebook and get greedy into a huge increase then increase the price dramatically that i think facebook when they increased the price i think twice at least but it was more than what it began with. they incrementally increased the price of the offering starting off with 18 ending at 26. then it is a smaller offering so the underwriters are faced with a smaller offering with the smaller floats of public shares outstanding but what day battle against is the open
not going at 60. take the fundamentals out. there are so few shares so what do they do? they said flip it back and that is what they did so they controlled the price. because this will go down in price but you don't want to go down from 80. 45 or 40 is not so bad. adam: is a we will watch it go down the one-year facebook turned around and yesterday one analyst said 90 percent drop of the value of the stock is one extreme but with a far greater number will say two-thirds of the business it did it is a good buy at $30 a share. >> i don't know. i use twitter of lot not
facebook as much. so i am an active user for news content but i can tell you that if i bought anything based on the ad. they will have to monetize some point. two things investors have to look to is a long-term business perspective like technical factors. every major regional fund will have to hold twitter. there will be some of the stock it will not go down dramatically. i don't think $15 a share but it will go down and there will be a floor then the company will have to prove itself. face but came back and started to prove itself and that is what they have to do lori: so there are parallels >> but this has been a very smooth opening. thinks to the company i
dunno any of these people they are refusing to be interviewed by me but they did a good job. they were not greedy they did a small offering they did not ramp up the price the underwriter caveman to manage -- caved in and to manage steve if they did very well. lori: but why does this happened why is this a historical precedent up so high on the first day that deflate? >> some do but google's did not i'm not comparing the two but when you bet on new technology with the capitalist system you have to believe it will work or will be bought by someone else to make a better mousetrap. i don't know. facebook baby bought by somebody else house someday
baby facebook buys twitter. but you bet on sommthing happening good in the future. when doing that you roll the dice. there is no guarantees with us. with the ipo every betty lateen to buy the stock it is not a bad day in not rightabout 60 we will not see that but it still may go down if you look at the imf to voices retail investors got screwed guaranteed. what ever little detail was kidding in at 48 now it is 45. adam: now it is going up again. >> but if he played the cave you get what you deserve. i tell people not to divest.
>> finally some good news from j.c. penney reporting the first increase of some -- same-store sales the first since september 2011 edging up 0.9% saying the company has made to begin progress and it is on the right track to long-term profit growth investors like the news looking at the shares right now you can see they are up. lori: over private communications and governments' buying the "new york times" report says at&t is selling information to the cia they pay more than $10 million per year for americans international phone calls they are not commenting specifically but acknowledge charging governments for handling request. >> the head researcher whose jobs report is consistently the most accurate of all economists on wall street will share his advantage
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with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investin >> heading back to the floor of the new york stock exchange ms. nicole petallides and the third car to ruth catch fire? >> not a good press we have the cruise lines one bad set of press after and rather than the truth is we have seen tesla motors and selling off pretty dramatically 420% year to date now just over 300% so it has lost a lot of value recently. this is the third fire they college the last fire and they go on fire less than normal cars but they can now with the quarterly bumpers and talk about the fact wall street was disappointed with
the prospect and the outlook that they would be producing people ould take it was at the thousand mark but they are under pressure. twitter $45.98. >> we'll briefly dipping below $45 the beryl and we're in the trading pits at the cme the strength -- the stronger dollar weighs on crude? three record think so the ecb cut interest rates the economic data was mixed and the oil seems to remove bonterre during when we got the gdp number that increases the odds of tapering that has the u.s. and ecb going on a different direction so that you get a pretty good move in oil but the other big move is between the oil and crude am part of that is with the expectations but there is
more to that story as well. but our block gasoline prices have rebounded after yesterday's back down again. and heating oil is under a lot of pressure today. the other thing is supplied to talk about a degree of 1 million barrels here and there but look at record supply it is hard to get oil to the upside. lori: this caught your attention so a new report that i read will deliver crude oil to india? >> it is significant they are trying to raise cash they are trying to prepare for their reentry into the global market there are big talks today with in geneva with other major parties we're talking about getting prepared for the return of arabian oil. maybe it was on amazon.com three delivery. i don't go.
but i think it is a desperate attempt to raise cash and they need it to get back into the global marketplace. lori: the jobs report is that a factor or just a lot of noise with the shutdown? >> the market will be grasping at straws but the weekly data was in line they may move us that the end of the day there is bigger issues. adam: spoonfeed health care on the country music awards last night but some democrats are not laughing about this. lori: hoodie the crystal ball? our next guest hits the jobs report forecasts out of the park. tomorrow's data forecast next. [ male announcer ] at if a small company
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one did -- or one man shot. >> i have decided i wanted to beat my head against the wall to help the folks on wall street with a give california tubenose the investment contact and it was a labor of love. lori: i want to get into your track record and will for the last three months wall street has predicted 180,000 nonfarm payroll the averages 150,008 you predicted 142,000 for the last three months you are so much closer than the average estimates so what is the secret? how you conduct your survey? >> let me say i have to get more accurate for a couple of years of the jobless claims as well. i don't alter the data i
come in from the bottom-up approach to harvest my old labor day debt and a i of actually getting a figure on the pulse of the 21st century. lori: give me more than that. that is what any economist will say i focus on the data. >> i harvest my own quite frankly the key is to defer century i think a lot of economist in the mainstream are primarily using the 20th century to approach today's economy but it is dramatically different than 10 years ago. we did not have the amazon or e day or paypal at the center of the way people buy or the way business does business, -- it is totally different economy you need you to wills and data streams to track that lori: you will want to give too many secrets but what is the economist in doing wrong
the way they look at the economy? >> i don't think it is right or wrong i just have a different approach that is more accurate because it looks at the rabil data and not through filters. i actually have legally the visibility to what is going on in the economy so i know it comes from the source and it is not a survey or a sentiment to go up and down whether or not the red sox win the series. lori: you are forecasting a little soft because wall street is looking at 125 with private cable you are expecting 119,000 but estimates are 125. you have been very accurate so why are you on the of
lighter side? >> i think there is some giveback this month there is more flexibility because of the furlough people don't know how to interpret eyelet gap said jobless claims maryland and virginia and washington d.c. there was some impact going from there you could extrapolated little bit but last month we had 20,000 more schoolbus drivers hit the table then we should have. may be why i am softer also coming from the bottom up by think the black box approach may be just extrapolation we have 130k on average let's just say 130 to tweak it. lori: changing subjects this heavy spending time bloodier with those vice index those
industries you can get a pretty good gauge how people will spend weather robust or not into the holiday spending season. what is your forecast? >> it will be a lot more cold this year. we are starting to see that in the retail segment and costco presented bibbers today the only reason they are up as people are getting food their belt tightening buying gallons of peanut butter to save some teddies. that price index is of great way to look at discretionary spending and it has been saying the consumer is spending but not more than last year and i think that is not what the market wants to hear right now. lori: of course, the gdp number was stronger so he is spot on with that again. andrew zatlin. adam: story of the day twitter goes public on the
new york stock exchange. >> $46 right they'll get my eight next guest says it is close at $33 per share he is next step medicare is how much the shareholders are raking it in today. the billionaires' to the millionaires. we will be right back. ♪ @?? when we made our commitment to the gulf, bp had two big goals:
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discussion, robert? >> well, certainly a lot of happy employees. they are not forthcoming to us out in front of the headquarters just behind me across the street, did talk to a couple this morning, one woman wisecracking saying it's going to be a good workday. not a whole lot of details, but just browsing on the twitter feed you can certainly see that a bunch of folks in front of the big screens watching that first trade, watching them ring the opening bell at the new york stock exchange this morning, and every employee to a one that came in this morning, and most were here before the sunrise, to witness that and be a part of the indoor party were all wearing, of course, their official twitter t-shirts and hoodies and the like. some folks who were not here, some folks at the new york stock exchange and were not here anyway, the founder, evan williams and jack dorsey, former ceos -- not at the same time. their net value, took a hook at it earlier, you know, at the $26 was $1.5 billion for williams.
and at the high today, you know, it's 140 characters is the maximum in a tweet, at the highs today about $200 million per character in there if you look at the market valuation. back to you. lori: all right, robert, thank you so much. let's send it back down to the new york stock exchange where twitter did make its debut, teddy weisberg joins us now. great to see you, sir. it seems twitter is pretty much stabilizing around $46 a share. what do you make of that? where do you see the shares trending from here? >> it's really hard to tell. they're, obviously, trading at a big premium over the ipo price. i don't think that's a big surprise. i think the good news is that the i be po went -- ipo went, from all perspectives, flawlessly. the trading, trading has been smooth, and, you know, obviously, there is a lot of interest in twitter. i mean, it's been anticipated like facebook was anticipated, and the investors clearly are
continuing to pay the premium. lori: sure. >> who knows what tomorrow brings, you know? only time will tell. lori: after all, tomorrow is a new day. all right, teddy, the broader market is lower. do you think that's a see up ahead of the jjbs report even though it was instructed by the government shutdown, is it still desperate for or concerned we won't get a goldilocks number? >> well, you know, the numbers are important. clearly, we're still in the tail end of earnings season, and on balance earnings have been coming in better than expected. i think the bigger picture as far as the market's concerned is that it's probably gotten a little frothy technically speaking, overbought short term. lori: okay. >> and so the pom point trees -- some point trees just don't grow to the side. lori: teddy, thank you so much. adam: so i think teddy and lori were quoting from gone with the wind. the other quote is these prices, especially with twitter, some are saying frankly my dear, you know the rest of us. [laughter] joining us to discuss whether
twitter is a beneficiary of the global, mark mahaney, we welcome him. mark, you have a $33 target on this stock, and you say outperform. i want to ask you some specifics wayed on the note -- based on the note you guys put out last night. why $33? >> well, when we got there using a price to sales ratio and a discounted cash flow analysis, the stock would trade around 15 times sales which would be the highest multiple in the group, but we also have the highest revenue and earnings growth outlook in the group too. so there's a bit of art especially when it comes to the first day of an illiquid stock that is coming out with a very small float. be anyway, it should be deserve a premium multiple, and it certainly has it. adam: i'm going to read from the note you put out, and you say timelines used flatlined in the most recent quarter, and our survey showed that 32% of users
had reduced their time spent on twitter over the past 12 months. i don't think that bodes well for revenue growth, but then you wrote we assume ongoing product innovation will drive engagement. tell me why i should not have a red flag, and what's the innovation that's going to save them? >> oh, i think there are bigger risks than that. their ability to succeed in international markets, one of the biggest mistakes i've seen investors and companies make is to assume that the success they've had in u.s. markets they can replicate overseas. and secondly, there's this pretty big monetization gap between twitter and facebook, and i worry the market's going to assume they can close that quickly. they're at about a fourth of the scale of facebook, and size matters. in terms of the innovation on the site, we've seen a fair amount. even as an average twitter user will tell you, they've seen pretty nice improvements in just
the basic interface. there's a lot of levers this company can pull to improve the user experience going forward. adam: facebook has roughly 75% saturation with smartphones whereas twitter hat 21.7%. they have 230 million monthly active users, but don't most people use twitter as a kind of headline news service? are people actually socially engaging with their friends and their pals in the way that an advertiser would be able to take advantage? >> well, the one major advantage that twitter has, it's actually more akin to google in this way than to facebook, is that it offers in-the-moment marketing opportunities for advertisers. you know, people that are on facebook, you know -- what advertisers know, they know their general interest, but they don't know what they're interested in at the moment. google tells advertisers what people are interested in at the moment, and it's a very powerful opportunity -- adam: so, ark, is the way they're going to make money based on location services and using influencers based on where
you are at that moment? because they don't do data mining very well just yet, do they? >> no, they've just started. it doesn't have to be geolocation, you know, targeting. if you're on twitter and you want to find out whether there's a transsirte strike right now -- transit strike right now, there's a lot of that they can tap into it. adam: mark mahaney, we really appreciate you joining us. >> thank you, adam. lori: and he gives us advice every day on how to make money, so let's take -- let's check in with charles payne. >> very impressive. i thought it would crack 50, so i don't think we did, but we got really close at one point.ecaust you're hearing, you know, you just had that great interview, and for the most part you have analysts saying the potential is amazing, but at the same time, you know, target is right now about $12 lower than -- adam: right. and potential for the stock
puppet was great, and potential for ask jeeves was great. >> web bands was another one. adam: you can't dispute their saturation in mobile. that's pretty good that they're in the top 15. >> i don't think anyone disputes anything about this except the valuation right now. and it's really hard because what happens is particularly since not the most recent crash, but the one before that, millions wrote off the stock market. i'll never do it again. and be then we had the opportunity last year with facebook. non-stock people said i'm going to give this one a try. they've heard of it, everyone used it, but the ipo the way it was structured, they took every single nook and cranny out of the possible runup and more or less a debacle whether you came in and bought on weakness, that's probably -- lori: sorry to cut in, are we out of the woods with twitter? it's only been trading for a couple of hours, and we know what happened with facebook. >> let's use that 45.10, if we
close above that, let's call it somewhat of a victory. if we start to dip below going into the last hour of trading and lower and lower and lower, that's certainly a yellow, if not red flag. it was a success for american innovation, and we have this one more overvalued stock on our hands. lori: is it telling that the rest of the group is gapping much lower? look at yelp -- >> i saw that first thing this morning. all these big names. first of all, for the last two weeks the high fliers, there's been some rotation out of those names. it's been orderly, and it got a little disorderly this morning. yesterday, for instance, zillow was up huge, crushed today. opened the table. up huge had a great earnings report, crushed. there's a few things it's telling us, but might be just a small pool of fast money that can only focus on a few winners at a time.
adam: the surprise reading on economic growth and the ecb's actions rattling the dollar all ahead of tomorrow's important jobs rrport. lori: and getting the last laugh on obamacare, carrie underwood and brad paisley poking some fun on the whopping six-people first day. ♪ ♪ ♪ no two people have the same financial goals. pnc works with you to understand yours and help plan foryour retir. visit a branchr call now for your personal retirement review. and this park is the inside of your body. see, the special psyllium fir in metamucil actually gels to trap some carbs to help mainintain healblood sugar levels.
foo business brief. the government says the economy expanded at a 2.8% rate in the third quarter, beating expectations, and it's the quickest pace since the third quarter of 2012. frontier's the best u.s. airline according to air fare watchdog's newest rankings, followed by virgin america, jetblue, alaska and in fifth place, southwest. rankings are based on customer satisfaction. the fda is proposing a ban on processed foods. the agency says reducing these heart-clogging oils could prevent 20,000 heart attacks and 7,000 deaths each day. the fda's proposal is subject to a 60-day public comment ppriod. that's theelatest from the fox business network giving you the power to prosper.
adam: the u.s. economy grew at its fastest pace of the year last quarter according to the commerce department with gdp coming in at 2.8%. and in a surprise move, the european central bank cut interest rates by a quarter of a percent. peter barnes with more in washington d.c. >> reporter: the government's first read of third quarter gdp came in higher than expected but for the wrong reasons. the the 2.8% increase was well above expectations of 2 percent, and what compares to a 2.5%gdp growth rate in the second quarter. the biggest contributor to the unexpected increase in third quarter gdp was growth in inventories when producers ann manufacturers make something, for example, that's counted as spending and investment in a product. now, this inventory buildup might have been due in part to modest growth in consumer spending in the third quarter, up just 1.5 percent, the slowest pace many nine quarters.
>> this sort of runs in tandem with the buildup in inventories that we've seen. we're seeing a slowing in final demand out there going into the fourth quarter. this is prior to government shutdown. so this, again, this is not a positive development going into the fourth quarter, and i'm sure that the fed has taken note of that. >> reporter: one bright spot in the report was exports, they grew at 4.5%, and that rate could strengthen thanks in part to this cut in a key interest rate by the european central bank this morning. it cut that rate, as you mentioned, from half a percent to a quarter percent, the lowest on record to help the eurozone recover from its recent recession and more demand from customers in the eurozone could help our economy. back to you. adam: peter barnes in washington, d.c., thank you very much. lori: all right. so how is this news on the economy both here and abroad impacting our stock market? it is a down day. let's head back to the floor of the new york stock exchange
where nicole, netflix is ramping up its original programming lineup. >> reporter: right, netflix and disney today. netflix the latest, and you know they continue to build their original programming, so netflix is ramping up the programming with a miniseries from disney's marvel, right? and then also in addition to that we have their original programming, four new television series. so that's in addition to the other successful series such as "house of cards" and "orange is the new black" which has helped to build the customer base. you see both of the stocks are down today at the moment, though both year to date are real winners, especially netflix. disney's up 36% this year. and, of course, in the 4 p.m. show, do keep an eye, we have earnings alert for you. disney will be there, also groupon and priceline. so we'll be following all three of these companies and their quarterly reports and bring them right to you. back to you. lori: okay, nicole, thank you so
much. adam: so even country music is poking fun at obamacare. last night at the cmas co-hosts brad paisley and carrie underwood busted out a laptop and proceeded to mock the obamacare web site to the tune of george strait's "amarillo by morning." ♪ i'm going to wind up with hemorrhoids if i sit here til dawn. ♪ we'll have cadillacs and dementia, oh, this is getting on my last nerve. ♪ obamacare by morning, over six people served. lori: doable. adam: carrie underwood isn't the only one with a bone to pick, demooratic senators up for re-election met with the president yesterday for two hours to express their concern with the administration's handling of the rollout of the health care law. lori: that's telling.
adam: kathleen sebelius said november 30th, kind of like that scene in "animal house," remain calm, all is well. lori: ain't gonna happen. adam: as the train is about to run over the guy. lori: cool new song by those two. blackout, subscribers flee. adam: maybe what is a surprise is where the 300 leftover stores existed. ahead, the lone city that was king of the dying brand with more locations than 40 other states. ♪ ♪ ♪ [ bell ringing, applause ] five tech stocks with more than a 10%... change in after-rket trading. ♪ all the tech stocks with a market cp...
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homes, both companies said it was a mere flesh wound, no damage done at all. it's now clear that was entirely -- lori: no. adam: -- true? dennis neil here with the details. >> yeah, two months later it's quite clear who really lost, and the loser is time warner cable. twc revealed a loss of 306,000 subscribers in the third quarter, and that is more than double the loss of a year ago x. this runs contrary to the claims the company made during the spat when time warner said the cbs standoff wasn't hurting at all. the company's chief operating officer yesterday, rob marcus, admitting that the fee fight clearly resulted in short-term pain for us. your customers know exactly how you feel, robbie. directv, by contrast, snagging almost 140,000 new subs, gaining from cbs fans who defected and at&t and vising had video -- verizon had video subscribers
too. cbs' ceo telling wall street analysts yesterday he wishes the flap, quote, could have been solved more quickly, but then adds that the record-breaking third quarter results speak for themselves. now, subscriber losses at time warner cable could embolden other broadcasters to take a hard line this their cable talks as cbs did. bigger question, whether this fallout will give cable operators less eager to fight these battles. could end up costing them in the long run. adam: how much of that would have been people cutting the cable altogether and just doing internet? >> that would have been true if you didn't see them signing up to directv, at&t and verizon. adam: got it. lori: quickly, how the mighty have fallen, blockbuster closing up shop, announcing it'll close its remaining 900 stores -- 300 stores. perhaps the bigger question, though, how is it possible there were that many left anyway? texas had a surprising 61
states. while 12 states around the country have gotten rid of it altogether. san antonio had ten blockbusters there. parent company dish network announced yesterday it will close the remaining stores by mid january of next year. the chapter is closed. adam: what a dumb acquisition for that company, to buy a brick and mortar chain that was in bankruptcy and a satellite distributer buys it and says, oh, we're going to set up a storefront. lori: what's bugging dennis? >> there you go. adam: you're getting the last word. intrude away. we continue to follow twitter next year as dennis gives blockbuster the birdie. we want to hear from you. where will twitter shares be six months from now? tweet us all hour long. she lovef the same things you do.
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we are following the little twitter birdie all hour as shares soar, farc exceeding demand. the stock opening at $45.10, that is3% above its 26-dollar ipo price. it briefly crossed $50 a share before dropping back. get this, twitter has been already downgraded to sell by pivotal research. >> well, a lot of people think they will like a lot of money on this our question for you, what price will twitter shares close today and where will they be six months from now? tweet us your answers all hour long. tracy: we're all over twitter. we have nicole petallides on floor of the new york stock exchange. robert gray, good to see you, outside of twitter headquarters in san francisco. morn stag analyst rick summer is in chicago. it is at the top of the hour. we have to go to nicole first. i know you're taking a look at twitter but we have to look at the broader markets. we're down 91 points. >> let's look at the broader
markets first. the dow, nasdaq and s&p are pulling back where the dollar is gaining, euro is pulling back. ecb cut rates to lower than expected levels. the dow is down to 15,655. tech-heavy nasdaq has been the worst of the bunch down 1.3%. so we're seeing pressure on these markets. don't forget we saw records to speak of. so a little pullback not unusual. let's get to twitter, 46.94. it opened at 45.10 and shot up to above 50 bucks. then down to 44 bucks. we we've seen it all over. traders noting the 45, 46-dollar range seems pretty fair. that is where it is hovering. shares are trading hands over and over. 70, to maybe 80 million shares. no name news people though. there was talk we would see katy
perry or justin bieber, big twitter users. but we had enough people on the floor. >> thank you, nicole. we want to go to robert to look how much the founders stand to make off of today's offering. robert. >> you know, adam. you have to watch the ticker there. obviously they have seen the fortunes rise and fall but not falling that much. look at the cofounders here. talking about evan williams, ev, as he is known affectionately by coworkers, jack dorsey, they were former ceos at one point. the meter started running at $1.5 billion for evan williams. jack dorsey started half a million and seen the fort turns -- fortunes rising at that level. dick cost toll low started at 180 million bucks. that number is. number of happy workers going out of twitter. not offering in the way of color for us in person but taking to twitter, what else. tweeting out pictures of big
party they had with giant screens watching new york stock exchange opening. stock exchange ringing the opening bell. early trades down there, watching the crowd down on the post on the floor where nicole was this morning reporting for us. a lot of hustle and bustle. a lot of happy folks wearing those bluebird t-shirts today. tracy: robert, stay with us. our twitter question just to reiterate, at what price will twitter shares close today and where will they be six months from now? if you know the answers let me know i will quit my job right now. tweet us and let us know. your answers will be on the screen throughout the hour. we'll take that question to rick who is still with us right now. what happens to this stock at the end of the day? first, let's start there. >> yeah i think we're not going to be able to give you much commentary on that clearly. things trade really far away from their fundamentals, really far away from what they're worth and we think it is pretty stretched today at 46. adam: you think it is stretched but you point out in morning
star, you have a note on all this, twitter is in the top 15 as far as applications on smartphones here in the united states. that works to their advantage. that there's only upside for them to continue growing as they, this word everyone use, monetize, fancy way of making money on selling advertising to the 230 million unique users. they don't even do that very well just yet in asia or in europe. so, why are the naysayers saying that's a problem for twitter but you think that is actually an opportunity for them? >> yeah, absolutely. i think there is a lot of opportunity for growth. there is something very unique about the distribution platform, very gooddinsights what their users are doing. i would make one cautionary comment. we talk about being one of the top 15 mobile destinations. we all know facebook and google but talk about the other 12. where would they be in terms of valuations if they were twitter-like shall we say? we need to be a little bit more disciplined how we characterize the value of the company. tracy: you know, we think that
every one uses twitter in the media because that's what we do. we use it as a news feed but does the rest of the world use it as much as we do? i mean if i travel to the midwest and they're farming stuff are they on twitter all day long? >> clearly not. i mean you look at the numbers. we're at 1.2 billion facebook users. we're about 232 on a monthly basis for twitter. we've got about 100 million. you're looking at digital user. we're not very deeply penetrated. i think that is one of the big risk points is can they move from these early adopters, like you, like me, people in the technology field, move over to that early majority. we think you can and we think they will but i think to say it's a certainty, that es what the stock is assuming today. adam: rick, i'm curious, this whole issue with twitter's timeline, you almost have to check it every minute if you want to keep up real time what is happening. is that a disadvantage? >> i don't think that is a
disadvantage at all. it is not about how you check it. the fact that when you do check it is real time. when you go there you go there for real-time information. quite frankly you can digest large volumes of information in a very, very short period of time. i think it is an asset. it is very overwhelming though. that new users how do they suggest it? figure out how they get to the content they want to see. it is daunting experience for that first user. would i say our valuation. we're at 2dollars. we think at 2dollars they overcome the hurdle. they figure out how to get the new users on to the platform. tracy: hey, robert, let's pull you in back there, you're out there, silicon valley, all the tech stuff going on. is there a buzz, this is the beginning of something, maybe we can get it right this time and bring more tech companies to market? >> certainly seems to be. "the wall street journal" breaking the story last night, square, jack dorsey's other company looks to be coming
public fairly soon. more mature companies out there that raise ad sizable amount of ex-venture-capital they're look forge exittand getting out while the getting is good. you're not too far from investor highs. certainly investor appetite is better. if they go, theyywill try to get out before we get too close to the holidays. once christmas comes the ipo window is slammed shut and you have to wait until the knew year. adam: you raise ad good question, getting out while getting good. elon musk has criticized silicon valley saying there isn't any new innovation. they keep designing games to keep us intrigued. how do they react to that? >> good question. i'm sure these guys would come out and saying we're changing the world whatever different way they are but you have to hand it to the guys at twitter. spinoff from a podcasting sharing service for short messages, not doing too poorly
today. as far as ipos go i would point out quickly, study from dr. jay ritter at university of florida, looking at 40 years of ipo data, on average if you don't get the first day stock, your stock in ipo underperformed its pier roup by 3%. basically a lot of that would be the people flipping and putting pressure, selling pressure on stocks. a interesting bit of food for thought. a lot of investors i spoke with, you know what? they're stepping back. one of them at savant capital management tells me you could go to vegas or buy twitter. in his mind it is the same. he is staying away from. tracy: a lot of people are stay thinking like that. rick, last question, what worries you? you wrote the risk to the s-1. i read it. i thought it sounded pretty risky. apparently people are not bothered about that. >> no not at all. we were pretty forthright in our base case it is really not about the risk area, i think it is about the likelihood really exceeding what they think they are going to exceed. i think today, at $46 we think
people are assuming it is as ubiquitous and pervasive as facebook within the next 10 years. to put that in numbers, we think that valuation assumes we're 1.8 billion twitter users by year 2022. you think how much penetration that is. that's massive. tracy: that's huge. rick, thank you so much. robert gray, thanks for hanging with us too. that's huge. do you think people outside this crazy media centric world -- adam: your question was a great question. you know, how do people truly use twitter? that is how twitter will make money as they start data mining how you use it and i use use it which they're already doing. would you be better investing in linkedin or another social working -- networking stock than twitter? charles payne with advice you can't afford to miss. tracy: the markets are spooked today, down 112 points right now after better than expected gdp numbers. how will the fed use this
information to determine whether it's time to taper? we'll talk about that coming up. adam: also the drones are coming, the drones are coming. not the ones from "star wars." why you're likely to see more of them soon and how you might actually make a profit from it just ahead. tracy: first as we do every day this time of day let's take a look how oil is trading. down a little bit today, $94.26 a barrel. don't go anywhere. we'll be right back.
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tracy: there is breaking news here. we'll brac at the dow right now. it is down almost 100 points right now, falling big-time to session lows t was down 112 points a little earlier. gdp in better than expected. that is completely spooking traders. why? they think this means the fed has reason to taper. adam: became in better than expected for the wrong reasons. tracy: god forbid we read between the lines here. adam: we'll make money with charles payne. everybody is talking about twitter but you're talking about some other social network other people should pay attention to. >> i happen to think linkedin is better investment. they have a track record we can
follow. they have done extraordinarily well as public company. they had a great earnings report recently. the stock pulled back because expectations are when they are. they should do one 1/2 billion dollars for fiscal year. they should be profitable. they have different lines of businesses including a subscription business. so, you know the questions that you have for twitter, how do you monetize it? what is going on? will they ever make money a lot have been answered at least with linkedin they have. tracy: i like this better because i no so many people have used it successfully. it's a business thing. it is for work. there are people out of work. they want to get in touch with people. for some twitter is just social goofing around, right? there is no point to it. >> right. tracy: there is an end goal. i want a job. i want to connect with people because it makes more sense to me. >> i said if i was day one i was traditional employment companies i would have, manpower, i would have a made a bid for linkedin right out the gate. bought them, say $100 a share, 150 bucks a share i think that is the wave of the future. these are professionals.
these people will pay and that's why they're doing well. who has the most twitter followers? katy perry? i'm not sure how they make money on that. >> you say buy what you know aad you know how linkedin works and something you can actually understand. with katy perry, you have a million twitter followers. or whatever it is. >> 34 million. adam: 34 million, okay. every time she sends out a tweet that is 34 million potential people who have some kind of a connection to something she may likings an advertiser can say, hey, twitter, let me in on the 34 million to sell that. tracy: katy perry could say i'm over this twitter thing and go on to the next producted. where linkedin i feel it has more staying power because basically where people link to go to work. adam: the fact that twitter is a news source. the way people loved drudge report it first hit, drudge, drudge. people could be going to twitter, what's the headline if they figure out and they are figuring out how to monetize
that, number 13 when it comes to mobile saturation. we're all doing stuff on smartphones. >> market assumes there are doing exactly what you're saying. if we were a 5r stock i might take a different position in this discussion. we're talking about a market cap relatively rich. adam: too high. >> let's put it that way. i would add in this, guys, yesterday open table came out with their numbers. amazing. people use it and monetize it. barrier to entry may not be that tough and get competition from others. yelp, zillow. more retail. still sort of a social type of thing, there is a lot of brand new, hot companies on the market i think have less question marks. so beware. i wouldn't touch this one, over 40. maybe not over 30. we'll see. tracy: whoa. charles payne, good stuff. >> all right. see you guys. tracy: quarter past. we have to get a check on the markets. nicole petallides on the floor of the exchange. the dow is down over 100 points again. what's going on? >> it really is. we're seeing act sell rayed
selling and down to triple digits as you noted. we're down nearly 3/4 of 1%. we're seeing for example the banking index was higher earlier today, now with down arrows and the drug index and the retail index. so we're seeing different sectors coming under pressure. i will add in the transports there as well. you are seeing that the market breadth has basically worsened here this afternoon. that being said, i want to get to a little piece of good news today and that is jcpenney. looking at jcpenney which is geting a pop today of about 6.75% at 8.22. this as they have seen some sales growth in the latest month and that was .9% growth after september was down .4%. but here is the thing. is it coming at the cost, they have a lot of markdowns that they have been doing? is it coming at the cost of their margins? while you did have the ceo talking about the turnaround plan in "florida face to facing" challenges and long-term growth and still has the question, are they really making the money? back to you.
tracy: i did order a suit for my and it did show up and it was not flammable. it all worked out. adam: stafford suits. tracy: it was perfect. he will outgrow it next week anyway. so it was fun. gdp numbers coming in better than forecast so will the fed move up tapering sooner than thought. adam: senate democrats facing the heat on obamacare and rich edson with the less than enthusiastic meeting with the president. >> the at what price will twitter close today? where is it going to be in six months? tweet us your answers and we'll post more of your responses coming up. we'll be right back. my mantra? family first.
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tracy: u.s. economy grew by 2.8% in the first quarter. better than the economists were looking for. the dow is down over 100 points as a result. the surprise report raiseing a bunch of concerns the fed may speed up plans to start tapering. joining to us break it all down, john silvia, wells fargo chief economist. i'm glad you're with us right now. >> thank you. tracy: the market reads this as things are getting better they will cut back on the party supply basically. >> i disagree entirely.
tracy: good. >> the gdp at 2.8%, 0.8 of that was inventories. if you take that out, the underlying domestic final sales in the u.s. were basically 2% in the third quarter, and they were 2% in the second quarter. i don't see any case for the fed pursuing any kind of a tapering any sooner than possibly march or april of next year beyond that, tracy, you have the ecb cutting rates today, probably essentialing inflation is weaker than they had expected. economy is perhaps a little weaker? i totally disagree with the argument this has anything to do with the fed tapering. i think that is a huge mistake. tracy: or excuse me, take money off the table, right? consumer spending down to your point, equipment purchases still down. i think increase in state and local government spending part of the reason why the numbers are up is actually not a good thing at all. >> well the structures number was better as well. so there is commercial real
estate. the residential investment continues to be fairly solid. you're right, state and local government spending is up, state and local governments are standard to spending. underlying the mix is always changing in fdp. when you look at final sales, people actually buying something, it is pretty steady at around 2% for the last four quarters. i take that as a pretty steady economy. tracy: you mentions inflation scares. are we worried now about deflation? >> i think the ecb may be hinting they're a little bit more concerned about the downside of inflation than otherwise. we do know as we look at cpi numbers, the consumer price index numbers, those numbers have moderated recently as well. not necessarily deflation but we know that the federal reserve is very concerned about lower inflation. certainly nowhere near their 2%% target. i just don't see the case for them tapering at all in december or anytime soon. tracy: because to your point, if all companies did was replenish
inventories we're done with that for a while now. and then there's not a whole lot to push this economy forward anytime soon, is there? >> no. i don't see the elements for a rapid pickup in the u.s. economy we've will see tomorrow what the job numbers are. in recent months job growth has been more modest than before and i do expect federal call restraint on the discretionary spending side will stick there as well. no, i don't see the upward momentum getting us to 2.5 or 3% economic growth in terms of domestic final sales. tracy: before i let you go, what do you expect them to start tapering? >> our expectation right now is possibly march. more likely in may. but sometimes in the spring they will start to do it. but i think what's different this time, very small amounts. we're talking about five billion at most. tracy: i hope the traders are listening to you and they turn this market around. john silvia, wells fargo, thank
you, sir. >> thank you. adam: still time for you to get in, at what price? twitter shares closed today and where will they close six months from now? tweet us more of your answers all hour long. tracy: shares diving on word of another fire in one of the tesla electric cars. we'll tell you about the investigation next. dow down 105 points. don't go anywhere.
but now it is at $47.17 a. tracy: company coverage. nicole petallides still on the floor of the deerstalker exchange. jo ling kent is here in studio, and professor of finance evaluation experts from the tough business school of daatmouth joins us now. we will start with nicole for a look at how twitter and, of course, but markets are doing. >> reporter: taking a look at the markets commander pressure. testified that top the. redound. we hit a high earlier today there are record all-time high earlier this morning. it is not unusual to be a little bit of a pullback. there's a little birdie. you have seen a somewhat of a broad base trade.
his ceo and the center. and of course right now trading at 4717. back to you. tracy: there were a lot of people there. all right. so jo ling kent in studio. tell us what is going on. what are they saying? >> a lot of excitement the buzz, lots of news future potential from big names and small names. let's start with one of the co-founders.
he showed the big crowds. the next one, let's pull up the office. he should have of your stock at $140 per share. so the next one here. the twitter user, the twitter ipo is going to make beanie babies that like a sound investment. a skeptical investor. next up, of course, sir patrick stewart who rang the bell for twitter this morning, one of the major users, celebrity users of the service are to join the team at their historic ipo which was, of course, on the top of the podium. and we have one more. a big milestone today. watching the bell rang together. he tweeted a picture of the group of european twitter staff their watching together. now believe there might be one more, ataman tracy. this is my favorite.
this is circulating throughout the web. take a look. someone blowing a bubble. he will have to wait and find out. back to you guys. adam: why you come and join us here on set. and you say it is ooervalued. a lot of people say this. overestimating the ability of twitter. twitter one year from now will lose 90 percent of its share price. that seems extreme. >> first of all, looking at this valuations. dickensian a tenuous connection
how they're reasonably could justify this kind of price is you're seeing $25 billion market cap. is it a valuable company with super possibility for the future, absolutely? at the right height -- at the right price. what has happened in this market is pricing fundamentals or price and value have become devilish spirit have no idea whether it will be ut i can tell you that at this point the price appears unsustainable relative to fundamentals. tracy: i feel like this time and time again. we trade on deasy. celebrity endorsements. not even know we warm strain on. it is revenue, margins, things like that. i don't know how you evaluate companies anymore. >> absolutely. again. people complain, price and
value. when we say value we mean ultimately it comes from margin and gold and reinvestment and risks, as you rightly point out. the price is a function of some many other factors such as sentiment and liquidity in demand, supply, the endorsement, at some point you go, welcome all i can do is sit back and watch this play out. there is no model that can give us a clear handle on these sorts of moments of driven gyrations in the market. adam: i will bring in show with a question. what is twitter going to become? a lot of people use twitter as a 120 character judge report news feed. the figure up to modern up to five monetize that? revenue generating companies that they can come up with. they have partnered with a lot of media to try to drive their
revenues in the future. a feeling get their revenues increasing over the last six months and are on target to be close to a billion or around a billion dollars this year is is certainly good news for the bottom line, whether or not they can actually be profitable is another question. i think that they are really trying very hard to be creative and to partner with companies that actually do make money to drive hopefully a little bit more. tracy: i think joe is on to something big is now you can watch a football game and comment. so it becomes this interactive thing. i could post to the nfl to their account and make all of these comments. there has to be awake, and maybe it really is throwinn out, unfortunately for you and people like me you have graduate degrees, throughout the school books and the downside the box and figure out how to say we have all of these people. how do i make kayfive? >> true, but the last thing when i am watching an nfl game won the world series is to be clicking on an ad to tell you
the truth. but i think that points to a bigger problem in the long run revenue model that was alluded to. all of these companies, they are all grabbing for the same -- very slow growing industry. in second, non u.s. uses are extremely tough to monetize in terms of advertising spending and mobile users from a yes, the actual numbers are going up all the revenue model is still a bit of a question mark. maybe somebody will land on something radical, but at the moment is not clear. tracy: you're shaking your head. >> reporter: at inky as a salient point, and the one company and does it very well, that does it differently than the rest is actually instead gramm. they have ttken and figure out exactly how young people like to consume. tracy: you are dead arm.
and you can like it. you don't even realize it is there. adam: you can also use the bell phone with a rotary. we appreciate it. we will be watching. tracy: we sounds so old. who wants to click on an ad while you're watching a game. i don't, but apparently kids do. well, no one does. a new generation. we have to open our minds. us old folks. taking -- the fda wants to ban trans fat. get luck with that. the good, the vatican and the ugly of it all next. adam: save your fries. the government approves industries using them, should you be concerned about your privacy? ♪ [kevin] paul and i have been friends.
[paul] well...forever. [kevin] he's the one person who loves pizza more than i do. [paul] we're obsessed. [kevin] we decid to make our obsession our livelihood. [kevin] business was really g. [kevin] then our sauce supplier told me: "you got to get quickbooks." [kevin]quickoks manages money, tracks sales and expenses.
[paul] we even use it to accept credit cards. aul] somebody buys a pie with a, money, tracks sales and expenses. boom, all the accounts update. [paul] when we started hiring,we turned on payroll. [kevin] it's like our pizza.you d the toppings you want, [[announcer] start using intuit quickbooor freeape. ♪ tracy: and it is time for this hours fox business brief. the fda is proposing a ban on artificial trans fats. they say, while many companies have produced trans fats, there's still commonly found in fast food, frozen food, crackers, cookies, raising bad cholesterol levels and lowers the good stuff. reducing these hard plugging partially hydrogenated oils from the american night could actually prevent 20,000 heart attacks, 7,000 deaths each year. the fda proposal is subject to a
adam: democrats are feeling the heat. a dozen senators facing reelection met with the president yesterday. minting frustration over difficulties surrounding the website. joins us with more from washington. >> they met yesterday, 15 fm are defending seats in next year's midterm elections, and some are
looking to difficult reelection campaign spirited democratic sources their meeting to the white house and the message fixes the problem with obamacare as polls of fallen following the messy exchange rollout and accusations the administration deceive americans telling them that they could keep their health care plans. the latest results of congressional investigations, documents : prepared health care was the day the ford was live. currently we are able to reach 1100 users before response time gets to my bcci is making changes to the configuration. that is according to an administration document. the house oversight and government reform committee has released. in response the administration says there is no question we wish we had done more testing, but we're now working around-the-clock to improve the consumer experience. with this latest revelation congressional republicans continued to pressure democrats are the health care law. >> i understand that the white house and that tight spot.
they wasted time making promises that simply could not pan out. the chain -- just to ignore the warning from my party in the interests across the country that these candid things would, indeed, happen. >> i wish the republican college with charges -- stop trying to scare people who are not participating in this program. we want to try to do business with the american people and we would all be better off. adam: republicans continue their investigations, the white house continues to stress the administration is rich in the light at -- website, promising it will was to be prepared by the end of the month. republicans are pressing the white house assurances that americans can keep their insurance plan, and a claim largely debunked by fact checkers and those receiving cancellation notices. back to you. >> now about 4 million total. thank you. tracy: a good story. it is a private drone. i think we need one year.
the fa saying it is a-okay to open the skies to civilian drones. in washington with the fa roadmap. that means, you have to ask, they're not serious privacy concerns your? >> there could be, and that is what some people as saying. a big green light to industry, unveiling its plan for integrating drones into the aviation system while it talks a lot about safety, it imposes no binding restrictions to ensure privacy. and that could be a problem. drones are best known, as you know, for their controversial missions over northeastern pakistan to tart to have target terrorists. 7500 are expected to year and that -- appear in american skies of the next five years according to faa administrator. the new deadlines imposed there simply requiring operators to follow existing state and federal laws regarding privacy, to file a privacy plan and except public comment. the agency is sensitive to public worries about privacy.
>> if we are going to take full advantage of the benefits that we are talking about for these technologies, we need to be responsive to the public's concerns about privacy. >> some privacy advocates of course this is not very reassuring in that high-flying nearly invisible drugs can capture detailed pictures and other personal information without anyone being aware of it. used by 80 different law-enforcement agencies, including the fbi. this use of drugs is very limited. the fbi issued this statement today saying, it to faa's existing policy and court guidelines and adds a look forward to continuing the strong partnership with federal, state and local authorities as rules for utilization are being developed. that is an unmanned aerial systems. so this is a debate that is likely to continue and we will keep an eye on. >> thank you so much. i thought you will maps was
weird. adam: the satellite can zoom right in on you. tracy: into the driveway of your house. that is crazy. this is even crazier. adam: i know we have been talking a lot about twitter. i don't want to talk about why the dow is down. is it some kind of misinterpretation of the gdp data? >> i just think that they are tired. we have been on active a role. the dow made a new all-time record high yesterday. most of the popular advocates are making new highs. recovery highs in the case of nasdaq. think we have run out of steam. probably a little overbought technically. you know, perhaps for the short term we will yellowback. it is not unexpected.
i have analysts who have said it is overvalued. would you like to add to that? >> i don't have a clue. you know, there is no rhyme or reason to why stocks sometimes are priced where they are. the stock prices are not rational. the stock market is not rational. clearly this is a company that investors have fallen in love with. they fell in love with the facebook and still are in love with facebook. facebook percentage wise has had a dramatic you this year in terms of moving. so i think, you know, perhaps the analysts are right, but for the moment the public and whoever else is obviously driving the train and think that it is worth $40 change. adam: that love facebook and have played hard to get. >> tester.
by the way, i have to disclose the leon facebook. >> if you very much. all right. time for your detect minute. shares sinking to day as word of the company's model s electric car has suffered his third fire in six weeks. the first model as car occurred in seattle, joy reverse when the car collided with a large piece of metal debris in the road. tennessee police as saying it is possible that a car ran over a piece of metal and the roadway. testa said yesterday's fire was the result of an accident and not a spontaneous and. whenever. still a fire. hunting hackers. facebook, microsoft, global, a band of brothers and the pursuit of a safer internet. the tech giants have joined forces to offer bounties to what they're calling friendly hackers, those who are willing to head down but. there words range from 300 to
$5,000. anyone is eligible to enter competition except those from countries that the u.s. has trade restrictions on. end it stealing that tutored foundered. it the word that his other company could actually go public in 2014. it is bad timing. last week the "wall street journal" reported square with the talks and investment banks. founded the mogul payment device company back in 2009 after being let go of his ceo duties. i mean, i think it is a little bit of an america. adam: he is laughing all the way to the bank. a buy or grrmble that the company may be for sale. dennis kneale ahead on why. ♪ [ male announcer ] once, there was a man
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♪ tracy: the month-long blackout of cbs time warner cable. he was it? dennis kneale knows. >> reporter: two months after, it is now quite clear. and the loser is time warner cable. tw see revealing a loss of 306,000 subs in the third quarter, more than double the loss the year ago. during the blackout the keebler had insisted it is a mere flesh wound with no damage at all, but yesterday the company's chief operating officer admitted that the fee fight clearly resulted in short-term pain. direct tv, by contrast, gaining this. posting a record high earnings from cbs. so he says he wishes the problem
with time warner cable could have been some more quickly but added the third quarter results speak for themselves. tracy: what does this mean when broadcaster star to renegotiate with their -- >> several dozen contracts. this could embolden other contracts -- contractors to take a hard line. bigger question is will the fallout from this give cable operators pause and make them less eager to fight these battles. it could end up costing them in the long run. tracy: no doubt. adam: coming up, most of us know that twitter literally flew off. can the company here in and made? we thought we would put that question to the man who invented the now infamous-tag. that and the rest of the day's market action is straight ahead. ♪ [ male announcer ] need help keeping your digestive balance in sync?