tv Markets Now FOX Business December 31, 2013 1:00pm-3:01pm EST
>> i am lori rothman. adam: and i am adam shapiro. the findings of a new fox poll just ahead, but that doesn't mean everything's coming up roses. the "wall street journal" stephen moore straight ahead. lori: why some social networks may be better bets for your portfolio. adam: recreational use legal and flights already sold out. the big money in pot still ahead. lori: and why champagne producers are not celebrating the new year. let's get to it. three hours to go on the last trading day of 2013.
let's check in with lauren simonetti. another record day for the dow and s&p. lauren: absolutely. 12 more hours until 2013 ends on wall street. the dow at a record high as we close. the dow took out another intraday high. it closed at a new high. the nasdaq hitting a fresh annual high. a solid day of volumes. also to the upside, the vix popping a little bit, but still maintaining the gains for the year. shares of ibm, you look at the dow 30. 29 of the 30 dow components up. many of them up better than 50%. the sole loser is ibm, down about 3% in 2013. the first annual loss since 2008. back to you. i just went around the floor
looking for white wine as a joke but everybody has read. adam: exactly. i will be rubbing that into cheryl. wall street 2013 gains actually reached and final gone to main street? the majority are actually feeling optimistic about the economy once again. "wall street journal" economic rigor in fact ms. contributor steve moore joins us to talk about what this paul truly means. what is remarkable is younger people are actually more optimistic about the economy in 2013 and going forward than older people, correct? >> that is understandable. young people got clobbered during the recession. it has been a really terrible time for people in their 20s and early 30s finding a job. the reason people are feeling more upbeat about the economy is because the economy is doing better. very little question i we have
seen a pickup in growth. we are starting to some jobs pickup. this pickup and optimism is based in a new economic reality and i am with the majority, this will continue into 2014. adam: first, they would be i would think troubling news for president obama on the handling of the economy. 41% approve of the way the president is handling the economy compared to 2013. 55% disapprove of how he is handling the economy. what does that mean for him in the coming year? >> obamacare has dominated the news, people see what a disaster that is and it is hurting the economy in terms of employment. if the economy starts to pick up and we start to see more solid growth in 2014, president approvals ratings will improve as the numbers do.
i would not be surprised if he is over 50% in 2014 if we get 3% growth threshold. adam: one thing we notice is how sluggish it has been compared to previous recessions. let me ask you the political question, the democrats will stake their future on income inequality. is that going to resonate if the economy is picking up? >> if the economy picks up, that benefits the democrats, benefits the incumbent president, no doubt about it. if the economy picks up, they will probably want to talk about jobs and talk about things being better. i have never believed income inequality is a good message for democrats because basically what they are saying is the middle-class and poor poor people have gotten creamed, how is that a mandate to elect more democrats? adam: could they reach out to younger voters and grateful
approval the economy is doing better on the issue of the minimum wage or will that not resonate? >> so few workers earn the minimum wage, the vast majority of americans are well above the minimum wage. i have two kids in college that will be graduating. they don't want minimum wage jobs. they have their stakes higher than that. i don't think there's a lot of huge, deep support for the minimum wage. but there is support for is the lang obamacare, getting rid of some of these hurting businesses, getting rid of the workers threshold on obamacare holding back employment. all of those things have a direct negative effect on the economy. he talked about the stock market doing better, i think it does help. 55% of americans have money in the stock market either directly through stock ownership or the retirement plan or the 401(k) plan.
we have seen some decent numbers in housing values as well and that is a primary measure of wealth of americans as well. adam: a lot of tax expire at midnight, but congress reinstate the r&d exemptions, financial firms that their business overseas, will we see those reinstituted? >> probably. this is an instant replay of what happens over the year. what is really scandalous, look at the provisions in that. you talk about some of the big ones that are important, something for the windmill, by motorcycles, racehorses. we don't really need these. we would not extend any of these special interest tax breaks quite frankly. i want to get rid of all of them. adam: allowing them to reap big rewards?
we don't have time to talk about those rights now, but i wish you a happy, healthy new year and cheryl casone has an new year filled with red wine. >> youtube. lori: i think we will be talking about the hangover this afternoon. this stock alert for you. hertz global shares are soaring. adopting a one-year poison pill to gain sizable control the car rental company. unusual and substantial trading activity. the plan was not adopted in response to any specific bid. adam: also watching the stock of phillips 66 jumping to a 52-week high. berkshire hathaway is buying it in a deal valued $1.4 billion. receiving 19 million shares currently held by brookshire.
-- brookshire. lori: let's check in with peter barnes coming up with all the data for us from washington. peter: rising two tenths of 1%, less than expected occurrence the case-shiller monthly housing index but prices posted strongest annualized gain in more than seven years, up 13.6%, the fastest pace of growth since february 2006 back in the bubble days. an author says don't expect it to continue in 2014. also, do not worry about a new housing bubble. the economist david blitzer said "monthly numbers show we are living on borrowed time and the boom is fading because price increases are getting smaller each month." he predicts closer to historical averages. he says the key issue for the strength of housing in 2014 is
the federal reserve efforts to keep mortgage rates down throuuh quantitative easing bond purchases, which it is now starting to taper. all 20 cities in the index rose year-over-year led by 27% gain in las vegas and 20% gain or so to the three california markets, all of those were hit hard in the housing crisis as you recall, but don't call the increases signs of a bubble, blitzer says. the last was caused by subprime and zero down payment mortgages, and we don't find many of those around anymore. lori: that is for sure. thank you. coming up next hour we will get more from the s&p david blitzer joining us on "markets now." adam: prices are down for the second straight day on reports the current resume oil exports and take a look at the metals. early losses mostly higher today. for the year there purchasing them apples and losses of silver
down 35%. lori: pushing demand for the heating fuel. now straight to jeff flock joining us from a coal plant in chicago. hey, jeff. jeff: i can vouch for the winter temperatures. this state line former coal generator was built in the 1920s as the largest electric generating power plant in the world. why are we here? go to natural gas numbers up for the year, down today 3%. giving back some earlier gains, but a lot of reasons natural g gas, it makes sense to be bullish natural gas. take a look at the temperature numbers in the short term forecast the next 10 days or so. all of the purples and blue and green on the map if you look at it closely, the map will show
you where it is abnormally cold driving demand. that is short-term natural gas. the number of coal-fired generator plans and this one here being shut down around the country as a result of regulations. if you are long natural gas, you like this trend actually because it takes the other option away from the electric power. don't the ability to go back even if natural gas prices rise. and w we're obviously getting a lot of natural gas these days, by some point maybe prices rise, you don't have the option to go back to these old plants. natural gas prices. lori: jeff flock rocking it.
lori: this news alert, 10 this recording and widespread outbreak of the flu this week. virus contained to spread across the country. most of the southeast. h1 and one strain you know it as the swine flu. there have been four reported infant deaths, many adults admitted to hospitals, flu shot recommended for anyone older than six months, and it is not too late. this is key. it is not too late. i haven't yet, but because of this latest development i thought so much to put on my to do list. adam: free flu shot.
two months ago. lori: your full of useful information that i can't use. adam: as we do every 15 minutes, the market and lauren simonetti. lauren: i always get it, i forgot this year. they gave them two months ago and we missed it. lori: both of you after the program. lori: i got sick regardless every year. it has been up all day today, certainly a big winner better than 5% right now. the private equity firm increasing its stake from foreign .5% to 6.8%. basically this is being seen as a positive for the stock for reorganization of the business. shares are up about 1.5%. back to you. we will see who gets sick in the eed.
lori: let's make semi with charles who talk about the market drivers for 2013 and 2014 specifically investing for growth. what does wall street need for companies in order to go? charles: the s&p 500, a line of cash. how did they use that money in last year and next year that will tell us about the rally. they say there are two ways to pay back the shareholder. event or share buyback. they both kind of tell a very interesting story. huge money in both of them. $448 billion in buybacks, $339 billion in dividends paid out. the buybacks on pace to be the second biggest ever. i would tell you guys the companies up the dividend, they have performed very well. but there is a third way. companies that put the money to work for growth, acquisitions, don't know if you have noticed, but companies that have acquired other coopanies, their shares
have gone through the roof. it has blown me away. typically the shares of company b go up and company a go down. company a has gone up tremendously. last week are taking over the substantive unit, the beach. adam: doesn't this indicate a bubble, what you have described? charles: it is the exact opposite. wall street wants to see corporate america building for growth. that is what they want to see. the buyback is what we should be worried about because this year about 720 billion in buybacks. the only year higher than that was 2007, okay, so that may set off a red flag for you. lori: my questions about capital expenditures to improve existing real estate structures. r&d spending. as opposed to just doing deals.
charles: the capital's been a number was huge, the market went up on that. the market wants to see this. if we see mostly buybacks, i think that is going to be a warning sign. i will be worried if we don't see corporate america making more acquisitions. aerospace deals the first half down 70% year-over-year. energy deals down 29%, health care down 15%, we need these kind of deals as a signal from the corporate, this is what people should be watching they keep getting buybacks i am a little worried about it. charles: if they are not moving the needle, you are right. lori: or do you reward shareholders for sticking with them?
adam: you have companies try to take advantage of that. charles: we have to be careful. the best way is to build the business for growth. if you can do that, i wanted a little nervous. this one thing want people to be conscious of in the new year. lori: is that something you should be looking for? comfortable enough to extend the debt holding? charles: it makes my to pick and raise money. it made a lot of sense. what they do with the money is important. listen, when companies say i'm raise my dividend 83% or 50%, that is a strong sign of confidence. the ones who are not growing the business, give you an example, 16 companies that haven't done a dividend or a buyback this year. amazon and google are two of them's. they are known for putting money back in the business and those
shares have been rewarded huge. nine dividend performers have outperformed event payers. lori: we saw companies streamlining and cost-cutting. charles: if everything goes right and the global economy coming on, we made an inflection, we will see next year will be the year of acquisitions, and the year hopefully we will continue to see the companies make the acquisition, those shares will go higher. adam: twitter among the most talked about stocks the country but doesn't have the same appeal on main street? details of a new study straight ahead. lori: ou netflix open to make my in the new year. we will update you on that, stay tuned.
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lori: a nice cap. interesting study released, social networking sites linked in and interest are more popular than twitter. 80% of u.s. adults report of the use twitter while more than 20% frequent linkedin and interest. president of the group, we are always thrilled when you're able to chat with us. how are you doing? >> real well, thanks. lori: any results of this study? >> until he got a situation with the newest stuff often the most popular and also a service that focuses on the particular customer base. linkedin probably does that best. we provide a lot of value, sustained value, they found a way to monetize those customers directly. it is a pretty good model to look at, that is why i favor linkedin over the other social networks at the moment. lori: in your view it makes
sense linkedin and pinterest ore more popular for my wall street perspective than twitter. why is late in doing such a good job and perhaps others with lofty expectations can emulate that. speak a focus on providing real solid value to customers, not just sharing ideas and what you have for lunch. they are focusing on helping jobs find jobs, connect and advance professionally. it had a solid value. they have a premium service you pay for to gain extra access of your hiring manager and deeper access into the pool of people you may want to hire. folks are paying for that is rather than relying on advertising alone have a way to get the premium value for customers really are their customers. the customer really isn't the user, busy ad agency putting forth the ad. this creates separation between revenue and value that is really hard to collect.
at the end of the day this was putting most of the social networks at risk. in effect they should be experts at advertising, but this thing very social networking companies they don't develop the skills. lori: today's weather most actively traded aspect. i've à la stop in the catch up for a couple of years at this point. it's what is advice for twitter? >> very much like we saw with linked in, turn users into customers. develop expertise in advertising that allows you to advertise differently, healthy advertisers drive for the conversion. the biggest problem with social networks across the board is they can advertise, the people who see the ads don't actually buy the product. conversion rate is incredibly small. they should be able to deliver ads far more powerful yet they are not.
they have to figure out why it is not working and fixed it. develop expertise in a business, the ad business, and like linked linkedin, develop a competency in areas people will pay money for slick and turn the users into paying customers. lori: you think they will get their act together and continue to be a darling stock of wall street? speak as long as large numbers of people use them and do so aggressively. nbc still almost exclusively uses twitter. they have to continue on getting that kind of visibility to draw the interest in the stock the simpler to have to drive revenue that justifies the valuation. i'm still not seeing a plan that connect those dots. lori: facebook with a dominant
target. adults using facebook compared to 18% for twitter and 70% on instagram. at least in the axes of young people that spooked a lot of investors earlier this year? >> you probably have the other enemies from using these things as a way to get information or at least talking about it. what really hurt facebook in particular is his belief parents, teachers, employers and government is watching everything you are doing. kids don't like to be monitored the added the quickest way to drive them away as to appear like they are not sharing with the people they want to share. recreant concern with the parents, future employers, the shadow government entity. so at some point the social networks have to get the government in line for people who use them.philip are consistently monitored.
lori: happy new year. >> happy new year. adam: some users may not be able to sign-up for the streaming service for $6.96 per month. asterisk less than the standard rate. the cheaper plan may be available for people looking to stream on only one device in standard information. hd is the way to go. netflix has shifted his plans to make it more difficult for users to share their accounts with friends and family. this also work to maintain the global rates recruit for subscribers. after the major uproar erupted when netflix change the pricing plan in 2011, but what are they recover after that. adam: about two and half hours to the closing bell. we run down the biggest winners and losers of the year. adam: a foot or more of snow coming in the new year.
lori: all right. we're winding down 2013. it has been 15 minutes since we last checked in with lauren simonetti on the floor of the new york stock exchange. what's the mood down there? people sentimental or are they kind of sad see 2013 go? after all it was such a banner year for the markets. >> that is a very good question, lori. seems like they're ready to close the books on 2013 and pretty optimistic, believe it or not on 2014 especially when
volume picks up and they see order flows in first couple weeks of the year. stocks are maintaining nice gains thus far. up arrows across the board. i want to show you big winners for the year. stocks like tesla reported first profit in may. the stock went up from there. best buy, great turn around. twitter, remember this stock price at 2bucks? look at it now. herbalife more than doweling this year. we have now show you the losers. before we show you the names, jcpenney, newmont, abercrombie & fitch fitch, et cetera. these are only five losers. there are only 35 other losers in the s&p 500 this year. 40 stocks with a red arrow for the year. one of the reasons you see peabody and newmont on there, coal and mining stocks took a hit this year. obviously gold down substantially. lori, back to you. lori: lauren, we'll see you soon. adam: rolling out 2014 by rolling a doobie.
does anyone call it a buby? lori: shoe is on the left-hand side. adam: doing the marijuana story. introduced legalization of recreational marijuana use. mark is a marijuana consultant for the state of washington and ucla professor of public policy. he has details what the new legislation means. how much money it could bring in for the states. the entire nation is watching this. thank you for joining us. start real quick why this is in some way as experiment the entire nation is watching. does this open the door 10 years from now we have a discussion about marijuana the way we talk about adult beverages and alcohol? >> i think that is as likely as not to happen and it will depend partly what happens in washington, colorado. but more on what is happening to public opinion. the shift in public opinion over the last five years has been dramatic and i don't know anybody who predicted it. we're getting to the point where
instead of being against, instead of proposing marijuana legalization, slightly fringing, being against marijuana legalization five years from now will be slightly fringy and politicians -- adam: there was a study are majority of americans favor legalization of marijuana. this year was first time it was majority that favor, correct? >> at least two major polls now show that, yeah. about a 10-point move over a year. adam: from a financial standpoint, colorado is expected to have roughly in its first year, $578 million in sales, close to $70 million in tax revenue generated from that. is that accurate? >> i didn't do that estimate. that doesn't sound unreasonable. depends on how much of the illegal market will, customers in the illegal market come quickly into the legal market. adam: could possibly the federal government quash all of this? it is still, it is still a violation of federal law. i realize the justice department
has had inconsistent policy towards medical marijuana. they say they will be hand-off i think with recreational use of marijuana but they have reversed themselves. the two memos, thing again, memo and other one we won't crack down, we will crack down. do we know what the feds are going to do? >> no, we don't know. we know what they have said. the notion that they were inconsistent before is not entirely fair. there is a memo that said, as long as this is not large-scale for-profit activity we'll keep our hands off it. and then, that people took that as a, everybody into the pool signal. and there were lots of, still are, lots of large-scale, for-profit marijuana sellers in california under the medical rubric and feds quite predictably cracked down on activity they said they would crack down. the advocates said that is a betrayal. what they said about the non-medical side in colorado and
washington there are a number of things like sales to minors, interstate sales,iolee, connection with gangs and so forth that are federal priorities. and anybody who is not impinging on those, they will not make a priority. so, yes they could shut it down. i think they have decided not to shut it down. i think that was probably the right move. because they could shut down the legal market but that leaves the illegal market in place. and i think how tolerant they will be of colorado and washington partly depends what the prices there fall low ennugh so that people start buying at retail in denver and shipping to chicago. at that point i think the feds will be unhappy and -- adam: could we possibly, if we see some kind of reaction in colorado, if some kind of drug-related crime rate drops, could we see then that being the argument as why we should have legalization nationwide? >> i don't think there is any doubt both advocates of legalization and its opponents
will be cherry picking statistics to show that colorado either has become heaven or has become hell. get the same nonsense about amsterdam. and, i doubt the result will be clear-cut one way or the other enough to change anybody's mind. adam: all right. >> but yes, of course people will be looking at outcomes. the big one i want to look at whether alcohol consumption goes up or down. adam: we will all be watching. mark, thank you very much. we make jobs about it in some respects. it's a national issue and priority we need to bring to people's attention. mark, thank you. i will head to to denver thursday for full coverage. we'll have fox news cameras with the first legal sales take place in colorado. we'll talk about the economic impact. lori: the big leave right on your lapel. adam: thank you. lori: justin timberlake no
longer bringing sexy back with jcpenney. ending the line 18 months earlier than expected. it was inked under former ceo ron johnson in. adam: champagne and new year's eve, obviously they go hand in hand but overall sales of bub are actually down this year. lori is not entering the market. up next the president of korbel how his company is performing in this environment. lori: this woman has something to celebrate going into the new year. find out what it is straight ahead. come on down, the prices right.
adam: time now for your fox business brief. new trouble for target this time gift cards. fix affiliate report that is 40,000 gift cards across the company were not properly activated. target cashiers reportedly entered the wrong code. which means the cards will show no value at checkout. customers can go to the desk services desk for help. consumer confidence jumped in december to 87 -- 78.1 rebounding from 70.2 reed inning
november. consumersconsumers were more opc about job prospects and economic conditions. hewlett-packard will cut 5,000 more jobs bringing the total jobs eliminated this year to 34,000 or 11% of its workforce. hp attributes the cuts to additional market and business pressure. that is latest from fox business, giving you the power to prosper.
adam: back to the floor of the new york stock exchange and keith bliss of cat tone and company. he is there for us right now. keith, we're finishing aer terrific year for investors. how do we keep this going into the new year? >> this is great question. if i knew you and i wouldn't be talking to each other because i would be investing my own money wisely. i think momentum carries forward into the new year, at least two tore lee weeks into january. one of our quant models kicked
into momentum indicator last night which is perfectly appropriate for the year we've had. new money comes in. january effect will take hold off the santa clause rally. there is no need why the s&p can't really two or 3%. we don't see the s&p 500 overbought until it gets up to 1880. there is quite a lot of room to run. we'll see that in january. adam: especially with the session we saw earlier in the hour, does it trouble the large size of stock buybacks and number of companies doing that this year? >> that is the one risk we could see in the new year and not necessarily that they're doing a lot of stock buybacks but they're trying to find ways to put cash to use in the buyback and buyback is probably good way to do it. they need to start hiring workers and expanding businesses organically. the question for companies and we'll get a read on fourth quarter earnings, are they growing top-line sales? if they can't grow top-line sales we will see the market top out or stall some.
adam: happen new year to you, keith. >> you too, adam. lori: time to crack the bubbly. not everyone in the business is sighing a reason to celebrate. industries experts expect champagne sales to drop 3 or 4%. we have the gary heck, the president of korbel. welcome to the show, gary. we know those are the global numbers. the story with the economy in france is very troubling. gdp is basically flat. consumer pending is also unchanged, flat, so how's your business? >> our business is doing pretty well. actually we're up over last year and so is the total sparr link wine industry in the united states up 10.3 million cases up about 4.6%. i understand that champagne is down but the u.s. is up. lori: so, final three months of the year according to industry experts, account for 40% of annual champagne sales. how will you guys do here in the fourth quarter? >> just about right. actually up, to be completely honest i would say that december
is probably overall about 20% of that 40%. lori: all right. so, are people spending a lot for premium champagne or are they more reasonable? >> i think the answer to that is both. i think they're spending upper tier and lower tier and middle tier. i think it's a wide range of different products from all the way up to dom perrigne, to korbel. lori: are consumers interested in newer versions of champagne? you have rose say a different blends and vintages to the classic brut. >> very much so. the our number one largest seller is brut of course but last number of years we came out with a sweet rose and percentage wise they're going faster than any other part of our business. lori: does the state tax burden affect you at all? you have a certain states with a
hefty tax on champagne. looking, florida, $3.50 per gallon champagne taxes. number two is, alaska. the lower end you have states like wisconsin, with 25 cents per gallon tax on champagne. does that affect sales or does that affect assigning prices state to state or that doesn't go into your calculations? >> what happens, lori, with that is, you are relevant to what your competition is. so in florida, for example, we're $15 a bottle of champagne. where in california we might be 9.99 because tax rate in california is only 30 cents a bottle, 30 cents a case versus.40 dollars a case in florida, 3.50 a gallon but it is all relative. lori: gotcha. gary heck, president and ceo of korbel. thank you for joining us. we have a little static on the line. we'll leave it there. have a wonderful new year's
celebration. >> absolutely. remember to celebrate responsibly. lori: good reminder. adam: how about this for a new year's present. this is car worth 1,660,000 bucks. this is washington native on "the price is right", making her the biggest winner in all time history. won an audi. spider. her winnings included, taxes on the car was, and a pair of prada shoes, worth $3,000. they're not even leather. make the total winnings, just over $170,000. that is lovely car. would you sell the car? lori: oh, yeah. i'm not a car person..3 adam: lovely car. lori: how about seats in the back of the car. adam: there you go. >> cold temps hitting northeast just in time for tonight's festivities. adam: but there is also a snowstorm brewing. we get the forecast straight ahead. [ driver ] today, my ambulance knew all about a bike accident,
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lori: we're goosenecking to watch the crowds walking and gathering down 6th avenue, no doubt heading into times square in midtown manhattan. if you're one of them, bundle up it is set to be very cold new year's eve. accuweather east meteorologist joins us with details. what are you looking at? >> hey, lori, you're absolutely right. much of the southwest and south-central remain dry for tonight it will be cold across the north central u.s. into the east central u.s. and some of us will deal with snow and tonight and into tomorrow. this light know is the leading edge of the cold. temperatures at the hour are still below zero across much of
the dakotas and minnesota as well a disturbance dice out in the next 24 hours. you see the moisture plume here. that will be major players in the storm we're expecting late this week. that will spread snow into chicago tonight, into tomorrow causing travel disruptions. thursday night we'll see wide swath of snow develop. anywhere from six to 12 inches near new york city with perhaps a foot of snow if not more for places like boston and behind it frigid air in store on friday as we wrap up the week. lori, back to you. lori: we're ready to go. violet, thanks. adam: adam: david blitzer of s&p says know when the price surge is going to end. you can't afford to miss that one. lori: what is your cure for a new year's's eve hangover? tweet us we'll share your remedies coming up on the next hour of "markets now. ♪
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lori: all right. good afternoon. i'm lori rothman. adam: i'm adam shapiro. two hours until we close the books on 2013 markets. with the dow on track for its best performance in seven years. we have a guest who says the party is not ending. and this is his opinion, quite yet. lori: sound good to me. home prices through the roof, up over 13% in a year. david blitzer from s&p is here. he says he knows when prices are going to stall next year. adam: for too many of us, this new year's eve we will drink a little too much. what is your cure for hangover? we have a bartender here to share her professional advice. lori: from alcohol to pot, beginning tomorrow it is legal to toke up in colorado. will 2014 be the year that more states approve recreational marijuana use? we have a guest ahead who says there is a lot of money to be made. that and much more ahead on this smokin' hot hour of "markets now. adam: we want to check out how things are doing on the floor of the new york stock exchange.
markets are extending gains on final trading day of the year. on commodity front, natural gas prices heat up as temperatures around the country plummet. lauren simonetti on the floor of the exchange. jeff saut, raymond james chief investment strategist in florida and sandra smith from the pits of the cme. lauren, we'll start with you. >> things are getting more exciting now. in nine minutes they will start singing nelly, the first is more festive today. we have several good economic reports this morning. case-shiller home price index, a really nice annual gain, up more than 13%. consumer confidence impressing them in the month of december. so we'll take it, rounding out the year with the best gains in like 18 years. also, want to look at hertz shares. they're hitting a 52-week high. jpmorgan increased the price target on hertz to $35 from $26. the news of course, before that, was that hertz adopt ad shareholder rights plan as it observed unusual activity in the
shares. what that means if a person or group acquires 10% or more of the stock that goes into effect. back to you. >> flag us when they begin nelly. we love to check in when they do some of that. sandra smith with a bright spot in otherwise gloomy commodities market. >> by far and away the best performing commodity so far this year. natural gas is up 29%. taking a bit of a breather on the last trading day of the year. natural gas has been the best performing commodity in the s&p 500 index of commodities which looks at everything from oil and gold to silver. but natural gas outperforming them all. there is basically a short fall in supplies this year as we saw, the winter start off, we had all the frigid temperatures from the east coast to the midwest, snowfall pretty mucc across the country. all the cold weather forecasts out there led to a severe spike of natural gas. if you use that to heat your home you're paying a lot more than you did before but coldest
start to winter in 13 years. we have weather forecasts from nda weather services for above normal temperatures leading into january. that is leading into a bit of a selloff. if you're using heating oil to heat your home you're paying same you were a year ago today. heating oil appealing to prices of natural gas. heating oil up just over 3% durst the course of the year. all the natural gas users are paying 30% more than you were a year ago. looks like the with warmer temperatures maybe things will level out at least for time being. there has been a severe price spike. guys, natural gas outperforming them all. lori: nat-gas is the story at the moment. sandra, thanks. adam: with 2013 closing we want to take a sneak-peek at 2014. we have jeff saut, ray monday james strategist. thank you for joining us. it is important.
do you believe you're in a secular bull market. that means we have another three to four years going up, is that really possible? >> it could be more than that, adam. dow theory suggests that the primary trend of the market is up. it is suggested for over a year we've had numerous dow theory buy signals, since transports and industrials make new all-time highs in first quarter last year. last secular bull market is between 1982 and 2000. only interrupted by the 1987 crash. adam: you believe gdp will move 2, possibly higher than 3%. is that indyk give of what you're telling me? i have a question of about revenue. i thought we were having trouble on revenue portion of earnings last time? >> i think gdp will accelerate 3 to 3.5% as we get into the back half of 2014. i think that is driven to large degree by pickup in capital expenditures f you talk to plant managers and even auto plants,
they're telling you they're running plants 24/7. they're running them flat-out. they still can't keep up with demand and quite frankly wearing the equipment out. the ceos, cfos i talk with they postponed capital expenditures as long as they can. i think you will see not a strong pick up but enough of a pick pup to be 3, 3 1/2%. adam: i will challenge you. general motors is extending some plant closures. they're cyclical this time of year to clear inventory, because inventory is up troubling numbers we haven't seen since before the bankruptcy, on cars like the malibu. get back to the revenue issue. we've seen revenue flat for a lot of companies, despite gdp picking up. that would seem troubling to me as we go into 2014? >> well they built inventories. a lost economists said we shouldn't make a whole lot out of plus 4% gdp growth in the
last quarter to a large degree it was inventories build. i would argue, inventory build, they were seeing sales stronger than they expected. in certain parts of this country there is a six-month wait for a ford f-series truck. there is depend whether you're looking at malibu cars or looking at trucks. there is a disparate product mix, not just at gm but other automakers as well. adam: some. sectors you think will do particularly well in 2014, where would you guide us? >> well, in a slower growth environment, and would i argue that three to 3 1/2% growth while it is under trend for this phase of the business cycle, it is simple but sustainable and i think that is a sweet spot for the equity markets. when you start getting gdp growth at 6, 7, 8, 9% is when bubbles develop. 3 to 3 1/2% gdp growth is slower than trend in that growth environment. true growth stocks i think will outperform and growth stocks tend to be clustered in technology and health care.
adam: let me ask you about some analyst west had on previously who think we have overvalued the s&p 500, that stocks are not, what you want to be buying right now. why are they wrong? >> well, they're looking at things like the case-shiller pe, which, in a normalized environment, has been a pretty good measure of valuation. but i would argue, it is backward looking. it uses the past 10 years earnings and we have been through some pretty not normal times in 2008, 2009. so i don't put a whole lot of faith in the past 10 years look-back by the case-shiller. i would rather use a normal p-e ratio which right now s trading around 17 times this year's bottom-up operating earnings estimates and about 15 times next year's. so even if you don't get a price earnings multiple expansion, if you continue to trade at 17 times next year's earnings, as we get into the back half of next year, you're talking about a target of over 2,000 on the s&p which is still 12 or 134% up
from here. adam: i think at love people would smile at 12 to 13% higher than where we are. jeff saut, i apologize i have to end it now. happy new year and all the best in 2014. >> merry new year. lori: forget the experts. turns out the smartest way to play these markets was to follow the so-called dumb money. charles payne, he is no dummy. he will explain to that. looks like a white new year too. adam: warnings of a foot or more of snow coming to big cities of the east coast. we're live in the weather center just ahead. lori: what is your cure for having a little too much bubbly? adam: more bubbly. curse hangover. lori: tweet us. we'll share your remedies with our audience. we'll speak with a bartender about her expert advice for sure.
defensive names. >> we talked about it during the break the last hour ago when adam was bragging how he outperformed everybody by doing nothing. adam: i've been sitting on that. i had to roll over a 401(k) a long time ago. put it into index 500. >> don't you find it interesting we're talking about the idea that the little guy is coming back to the market it is time to sell when this year the professionals, smartest guys on wall street who significantly, significantly underperformed the market, significantly by a million miles. adam: hedge funds always usually do. >> amazing these guys get 2% and get 20 to 25% of profits. are you kidding me? get the money year after year. short funds which got slaughtered, i guaranty will raise billions of dollars again. it is amazing. these masters of universe types i think problem with them is two-fold problem. i think on one hend you have
guys who read the press clippings and become superstars. they almost sort of think that they feel ordained, whatever they touch works. eddie lampert says i will take over sears. i know nothing about retailing. i will turn it around. yeah, i hear you. initially they're rewarded because wall street follows them. someone says, hey, let's short herbalife. it's a piece of crap. first it goes down. next thing you know 2 goes back up. all i'm saying is, you got those guys on one end and the other and a lot of people who have become really lays civil i heard a hedge fund guy say a few years ago, maybe six years ago, when all the guys performed the same, yeah, we're all using the same mathematical formulas. what we're going to do make ours more complicated. how about looking at income statement, the balance sheet? cash flow statement. do pier to peer reviews. macroeconomic work. basic old-fashioned economic research. lori: i like risk, charles. i'm wild and crazy. >> i'm a risk-taker.
i love it -- adam: you have a minivan. >> you can't make investing a little less riskier than throwing dice. amazing to me and happy for individuals to stayed in the market. lessons for those people and a lot of people, march, february, 2009. $50 billion in equity mutual fund were sold. over six-month period, over 100 billion sold. at very bottom, how many people watching never got back in, every day feel, since twice. saw it at low. and you could be at the high right now. lori: even one beta, s&p is up 30% year-to-date. that is high-flyer. something relatively calm and safe, still just had a banner year. >> had such a banner year. one of the things too, there were a whole lot of things that didn't have banner years. bonds were down. emerging growth is down. commodities were down. gold down 30%. typically you almost get everything up a little bit or about the same. this was just extraordinary. and still the great rotation i
don't think has really necessarily begun. if it has it is only in the first or second inning. lori: we've got to run. >> thanks, guys. adam: thanks, charles. it is quarter past. we run down to the floor of the new york stock exchange and lauren simonetti is watching drugstore chains. lauren? >> absolutely. the affordable care act gets you know way tomorrow. we're seeing some of the drugstores and insurance companies helping out a little bit. walgreens says if necessary for certain patients we'll provide 30 days of drugs, prescription drugs, necessary if someone signed up on healthcare.gov did not get a plan identification number in time. also look at cvs. this is also down. both stocks are up substantially this year. cvs is providing bridge medication in certain instances to help out. adam: do we hear singing behind you? >> we hear the traders getting very rowdy. they're banging on things.
starting to wear their 2014 glasses. it is getting exciting. less than two hours, right? there is a lot of champagne down here. i found some. looking for the white wine. lori: don't drink yet. you're still on the job. adam: don't admit you're drinking it. >> that is debatable. >> you're warped sometimes. adam: sometimes? lori: obamacare glitches, by now we've all heard many stories about problems with the health care law but you need to stay tuned for kate rogers story of the bureaucratic nightmare that one mother is going through. adam: pot tourism is coming to colorado starting tomorrow as that state legalizes recreational use of marijuana. we have a guest ahead who says there is a lot of money obviously to be made. ♪ [ laughter ]
association of the said it's a step in the right direction but many challenges for the industry remain. welcome, betty, to the program this afternoon. $2.3 million in tax revenue is what the state of colorado is expecting. that translates into heavy tax burden, but do you think it is fair. >> quick correction. $2.34 billion sales revenue nationally for the marijuana market in 2014 has been projected. but we expect to see tens of millions of dollars across the nation and in colorado. what we'll see next year in colorado is going to be up how quickly we get this law implemented and how quickly stores are opened but it will be very significant. in 2015 we should expect to fulfill the promise of amendment 64 and fully fund the school construction bonds that we promised. lori: all right. so in terms of this being a regular business though, there are some differences. i know that this has raised some eyebrows as well in terms of the business deductions where certain businesses can write off things like wages, salaries,
commissions, health and other insurance issues, pension plans can't write those off in the marijuana industry, sorry in colorado. >> no. there is a law written in the '80s before anyone imagined legal marijuana sales, states can't take any regular business tax deductions. something we're working on with congress because when people are paying 60 to 90% effective business tax rates, they aren't able to reinvest in their businesses. they aren't able to create jobs that we're looking to create in this industry. we could do a lot better for communities as well as small businesses if we were taxed at fair tax rates. lori: also a big concern is the fact that the marijuana industry there in colorado isn't privy to banking services, which i found surprising. so how are business owners, marijuana business owners able to do business? do they actually have to hang on to large sums of cash? you. >> know each business has a different way of making sure that their cash is secured or
debossed in -- deposited in some manner and every business has to about through tremendous machinations. despite incredible security and monitoring in the facility there is lot of cash around and that create as real problem for those businesses that, you know, are having to fight this perception. we've seen a handful of very scary events and there is no reason to continue with this ridiculous law. this is a very easy fix and congress and department of treasury should be able to handle it quickly. lori: are you optimistic it will be expedited? tell me a little bit the way the industry is being treated by the state and also the federal government because a lot of eyebrows have been raised especially by the feds and how the marijuana industry has been treated. >> you know, at any state they experience a little bit different but most states are embracing the will of the people and allowing regulated markets to move forward without too many unnecessary impediments. what we see at the federal level a great deal of hesitation to
accept the will of the people when it comes to marijuana policy reform. people are sick of arrests. sick of having a criminal market flourishing over this plant that can easily be sold in regulated markets. and so but we are seeing change happen slowly. over the course of the fall we saw the department of justtics acknowledge in both a memo and senate judiciary committee hearing that regulated markets might be the best way to control marijuana given people are no longer willing to arrest people for it. and we've seen some movement at the federal level. we no longer fear immediacy of the federal government coming and taking away all of our assets as long as we're behaving within the scope of the law. those who aren't are being punished appropriately. lori: betty, thank you very much. we'll see for ourselves. adam shapiro, how the launch goes tomorrow, is heading out to colorado. he will be there reporting for us all day thursday as the business of marijuana expand
into colorado. adam: it is not just colorado. washington state, medical marijuana in new jersey, big issue, first a fox news exclusive. health and humidity services secretary kathleen sebelius emerged from a restaurant in washington, d.c., talking about the new health care law taking effect tomorrow? >> i'm thrilled we'll have millions of people for the first time to have health -- [inaudible] should be a great new year's for lots of families. adam: but there is coverage confusion continuing as more than one million people have now signed up for obamacare. many are encountering multiple problems while trying to register. foxbusiness.com's kate rogers is here with one family's frustrating story about trying to obtain coverage. what happened to them? >> we all heard about these ongoing glitches since the affordable care act site launch in october but i spoke with a mom yesterday who was told she had the worst case of glitch they had heard up since open
enrollment launch. shannon lives in grand rapids, michigan, been trying to sign up to get coverage for herself, her husband and five kids. for some reason she keeps getting error message says her children are not u.s. citizens when they are and not eligible foo coverage under aca. adam: that glitch has been fixd? >> not been fixed. she spent 15, 20 hours over the phone, trying to get this reset and get an application number. she can not get enrolled. they told her is only option file written recourse with department of health and human services. the only issue here they have 90 days to respond f they get back to herr within 90 days, it could take longer that is end of open enrollment period. she fears she won't have coverage for entire year and herself and five kid and her husband. lori: there is the gap problem we've heard time and again. what are you supposed to do? is there solution to people? >> reached out to media and us and local media and trying to
get attention. spoke with a hhs person yesterday reaching out to people with the glitches, reset the application and start again. reached out to state attorney general and congressman to get them on her side to get coverage. adam: talking about numbers of people enrolling, a million the government says enrolled. that doesn't mean they bought insurance yet which is the real issue, correct? >> that is the real issue. we get reports from hhs how many people are enrolled. typically the insurance industry counts you as enrolled once you pay the first month's premium. they're counting people who may or may not have yet paid their premiums. they're not enrolled until they write the check. adam: join the health club, get in shape for the new year you have to go there. >> bingo. tough to. thank you. adam: thank you, kate. coming up in the next half hour of "markets now," raising the roof, home prices are up more than hirt teen% year-over-year. -- 13%. we have a guest who says he knows when the price surge will end. lori: netflix for only 6.99 a
month. there is a catch. why reed hastings may not see his money on deal like this one. adam: still time to get in. what is your cheer for drinking too much? how about don't drink? tweet us and we'll share the remedies from the audience and talk to a bartender about her expert advice. lori: we expect everyone to lush these days. adam: on new year's eve.
gamble, some of the medical companies are on the downside. let's go back to lauren simonetti, twitter practice has been a very active stock. you can see, the stock is up four and a half%. twitter down 17 and a half, with the turnout, which in for a man monday. still 90 minutes left. that's higher than the 30 day average. zeno, on friday with said huge volume. air waiting for their first report as a public company sometimes in january of want to see have this lack is during to make money. tracy: twitter and facebook among the most actives. ashley: beck case your home price jumped.
but the chairman is and i expect the price surged to continue. heat turns me now with more. did have you here. is this the wrong time the it into the housing market? >> the first thing you need to realize is the old story is really true, so looking at these national numbers are even now one of the city's it's very difficult hot to say here's what's happening on the neighborhood your allegiance to move to. in terms of the big picture to when he start with mortgage rates. if there reserve has started to
reduce its soaker of quantitative easing, buying fewer mortgage bonds, and it appears the plan, continue. ashley: effect in se, and going to choose a few cities. with mortgage rates billion pounds, and s in the leg in york -- best city like new york a man in a place like cleveland, ohio? >> surprisingly enough of the the last will once those the york and cleveland, they're pretty much of the -- bottom of the left-hand.
the bursting to serious committees are single-family homes. a $20 million callable workman to read about, that's not in this index. would make it more exciting, but it is apparent. i think the a thing, new york is a bigger and more diversified economy. that would make me say here is a little more brazilian. we have a lot of financial services, we're seeing increasing amounts of technology carola of foreign companies here as well. ashley: i have a lot of friends in cleveland, but are there more -- when my seat prices low? >> nothing looks like this place to go down.
there are a couple of markets out in the southwest and the west where people i'm mentioning that the board as an bubble. some people do wonder about bubbles. there's a big difference. the level of debt and the level of overall leverage is a lot lower today. you can't hit a 99% mortgage is day. you can buy a house without money them. six, seven premiers ago and anyone could walk into what was reportedly a bank and get a mortgage. even if prices to build them, the collateral damage will less negative will take a big drop compared to the six.
ashley: opinion thank you for joining us. >> my pleasure. tracy: breaking news. zero of them. the last close for two dozen 13. upon the year. as the largest gain since it does live. warnings of foot or more of snow coming to the big cities. airline. ashley: why they're mad. tracy: first, interest rates. here's a look at the ten year. treasury logging their biggest loss as. the highest level since july
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new york city is suing fedex the new york city lawsuit seeks 54 million in taxes. fedex some of it stopped doing business with known shippers of cigarettes. the lowest in three years. coriente aaa u.s. shares have an average of three rows of $0.49. aaa says gas prices and should continue of fall. it is the latest of the 21 a or coming union power and price are. but a lack
not everyone will see the advertisements. netflix ceo reid hastings was he is scheduled salary and stock options jumped hit his said they're receive annual salary of 3 million in additional heavier shares of netflix era half according lax from 42,030 was the biggest year. leisure oriented apps so the biggest of bunkers with. man versus machine. airports starting to use machines rather than people to verify the it in any of fire by
scanning fingerprints in, irises, and faces. on the people fill the unofficial allow humans the book is some suspicion that it did. death. up 18% from have his again. 2 million frequent fliers are enrolled in programs that scan fingerprints. tracy: it's a quarter of. let's been active on the markets. from the floor of the nyse-listed.
>> new money is flowing into the market. lisa contributions into mutual funds picking of substantially. when is the most interesting is how we saw the evolution of the trading style from one of the defenses, dividend major to rolling in to really brought inspectors. your best performing sectors this year with a lot of names in side of those, three sectors of over one of the%. we look forward to 2014 continuing. tracy: will leave it there. thanks to. ashley: from the rockies to the planes, most of the country will pick of the new year with the snowstorm. you're going to be stuck. just remember what this says. tracy: one night only and then it's off to the ski slopes. ashley: just how bad will this be? >> this will really start taking
shape until this thursday. for now we're looking at a little bit of light snow. there is a disturbance moving of the northern into the high plains. an arctic air masses in place. is-6 degrees, one below zero in minneapolis, and it will market better for midnight. this a arctic air is fighting to the filing to the northeast. not only is there a disturbance, what in the northeast. much we care. mainly clear. temperatures chilly. wind moving in from the west. a real hand called time out there in the town square. bundle up and throwing your watch the ball drop. now the next system mentioned will attract east. aromatics but the heavy snowfall until it makes its way over to
the northeast. it will be in of the disturbance. as that one weakens the other will strengthen in the middle atlantic coast, and that one will bring it blizzard conditions, especially to wind for this thursday and friday. we are talking wind with snow, some power outages, and definitely major delays on the getting nasty at their for lay in the workweek. ashley: all right. tracy: let's turn lens into lemonade. ashley: i may be stuck in denver would you doing, rather? tracy: why are you going to call a run of? to test that the new week, so you should be just fine. ashley: to report on it. thank you. tracy: what is your cure for new year's hangovers? your remedies to our expert next. ashley: how they are ringing in the new year in shanghai, china. dubai has the next big celebration that will take place in just about ten minutes. ñ@ç@
tracy: happy new year, folks. we are almost there, the majority of less planning on bringing in the new year with a little bubbly county make sure you start of the new year right and hangover-free, which brings us to our twitter question of the year, what is your cure for the new year hangover? we will flasher a lesson about of the screen during the next conversation. joining me now, an expert on the subject, bartender and mixologist. it's great to have you. is there anything that we should be doing to prepare for now for
an evening of imbibing? >> a good meal was a lot of starch and ordered a soak up all of the alcohol. if you go on an empty stomach you're making yourself susceptible to have that hang over the next thank. tracy: once your at the party, what is the best way to go about it, pound glass after glass? >> that will definitely give you a hangover. the best thing is rates trigger to drinks have that glass of water. it prepares you within the federation is the debate -- of feel as bad the next day. tracy: should you be conscious of the sugar content? >> absolutely. share in making much more broadly. if he makes with like coca-cola or cranberry juice, avoid that. dry things with soda water. sometimes cut it with just regular water or things that don't even have as much sugar in them in the first place. tracy: my other question for you
to as -- adam: vodka. tracy: la date? adam: about it tonic. tracy: what about the hard liquor? >> you can definitely do hard liquor, but it is placing yourself. don't do shots. you don't know when that will hit your system. tracy: the other thing that is on my mind obviously as i am a mom. having a new year's party and pulling out baubles to five bottles of wine and champagne mi zero saying, bob, the like the taste of wine? as is said -- well, i was dumbfounded. it was my question. what is your advice for talking to kids about a heart? >> sees a sometimes your palate changes as you get older, the sam with a year or undulate brussels sprouts and the and all but maybe not when your 67 years old. sometimes things are better. user changing the taste. you tell all that should you
have. tracy: not necessarily going into the all discussion of how of changes are you feeling that can affect the behavior. >> i think when your six you're not ready for that conversation. that is smart for the ten to collier raised. that is when kids get into alcohol. tracy: then you have that discussion with the teenager who was to protect. >> if you're having children, making my tail friendly concoction and have the alcohol on the side and they can add the booze are distributed straight from the pitcher. tracy: that advocating an underage drinking. >> that's for your guests. twenty-one and over here in the united states of america. tracy: you advocate adults having alcohol in kids presence? >> i don't encourage that at all. i am saying have a non-alcoholic options out that look really, pretty colors. adults can have them, i like having him.
tracy: thank you so much. appreciate that. adam: i have this vision of you trying to keep tustin -- under seven year olds in line after maybe for five adults beverages. all right, kids. some fun facts about new year's. 12 feet by it -- 12 feet wide. more than 2400 crystal waters' third on the wall, eliminated by more than 32,000 of the delights commanded you know that building that wall sits atop times square reportedly had a speakeasy in the basin back in the day. also, the fbi help us to practice there. these days that building is mostly abandoned with was littered with graffiti in the remnants of old stuff. tracy: a little trivia, although history for you. adam: times square. how how big to bring in in a year.
they just tweeted a picture of new york city from the international space station. do we have that for you? there is. it is not north. all right. coming up, car rental company had to an all-time high after adopting this so-called poison pill. who is reportedly gobbling up shares, and of the now is the time is given first. tracy: had the new year for many -- adam and lori, everybody. be safe. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪
the dallas on the brink of its best year since 1995. the s&p 500 is poised to have its best run since 1997, and even the index tracking smaller stocks rising 30% for the year which is better than both the dow and the s&p, but if you have to look right now, big winners like boeing, american express, disney, all you stocks that you want to watch it to the very last hour of trading. of course your celebrating a great year for the markets, for your portfolio, but a bit of a negative known as the new year is going to bring a higher number of layoffs as these personal computer to of computer giant's got news that they are expecting to lay off an additional 5,000 employees. that is on top of the 29,000 originally planned. here is what hewlett-packard is saying, "continued market and
business pressures are behind this move. the stock is certainly an interesting story. let's get the charts. hewlett-packard is that a strong year. you can see that on the screen. it is through layoffs of the company, some of the cost-cutting measures that went through. the investment stories. car rental giant herds adopting after seeing an unusual and its substantial activity. one report said that the hedge fund took a significant stake. that is confirmation of course of the next couple of hours and will bring it to you right here on fox business. for more on exactly how our shares reacted, let's bring in lauren. it's always interesting when you have big moves like this the the the the year. maybe these guys think the financial press is