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tv   Countdown to the Closing Bell With Liz Claman  FOX Business  December 26, 2014 3:00pm-4:01pm EST

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appropriate $200 million to study the goats. [laughter] tracy: that's the message. thank you so much. that is all for now. we all hope you are making money today. adam: a lot of people making money today. even though volume is light, all three major indexes are on track for their second weekly gain. anies positive close for the dow -- any positive close would be a new record, the 52nd of the year for the s&p 500, by the way. take a look at the russell 2000, the small cap index hit a record high today. any close above 12 to 8 would -8 would be the ninth record close of the year. and the public is speaking, we will not let the hackers win especially when it comes to our rights to watch seth rogen comedies. "the interview" selling out across the country. and it's a christmas
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miracle, falling oil means the price at the pump is at a level that we haven't seen since 2009. and get this, with a gallon of gas averaging $1.98, missouri is the first state to watch gas prices fall below $2 a gallon since 2009. a lot of nudes to cover in the final -- news to cover in the final minutes of trading, so let's start the "countdown." ♪ ♪ adam: only three more trading days in 2014 left after this session. with volume typically light during this time of year, what's the best way to play them? let's get right the floor show, traders at the new york stock exchange and the cme group. over at nyse we have joined by stephane guilfoyle and let me start with you. santa claus rally, do we get it, and we sustain these kinds of gains? the s&p 500 year to date is up 13%. do we get that in 2015 or ain't no way? >> we are going higher at the
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end of the year. this is a typical window dressing period. if you watch traders' almanac, watch history, you actually kick off today, we began about ten days early in the santa claus rally, and there's no reason for it to fade. those that want to dress window books, if you will, they're probably buying more than they're selling right now. profits were locked in already. adam: all right. ira -- appreciate that, stephane. what do you think? >> i think he's right. i don't see us having any real hiccups until the january effect gets a little old maybe in mid january. so i think you can save some money on hedging up until that point and just try to -- i'm a little long right now, i think you're okay hedged to the long pseudo. adam: really? some people are talking about in the first quarter of the year we'll see stocks fall about 10%, and then maybe in the spring we might get up to a 20% correction. ira, i see you nodding your head. what advice would you have for the people who believe that's
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where we're going? adam: ira, go ahead. >> go ahead. adam: let ira go. >> either way. either way you go, yes, i think you do expect the correction. you've had a heck of a rally out here. all the news that we've had, we'll get the earnings in the first week or so, and then id be a little bit course. i think you want to buy breaks though. i don't think you prepare for a bearish market, i think you play the same way it has until it changes. when you get a 10% break, then you get a bit nervous because we haven't seen one in so long. adam: and, stephane, are you agreeing with ira or agreeing with this? >> if you look at a daily chart, we have a wedge forming, and that is probably going to come to a head somewhere in mid to late january. we'll have a violent move, and it's hard to say which way which is why i was saying you want to be hedged at that point. >> stephane, i want to stick with you on this, isn't the bond market telling us that, you know, there is a contraction
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coming, that we should be concerned? >> we could be, but you're also seeing stocks and the price of oil decouple. stocks had traded down a couple weeks ago when oil got smashed, so today you have oil down more than a dollar yet almost every sector up on the day. even energy which traded lockstep with oil is slightly green on the day. so i'm not sure about that. i think stocks might be their own animal right now. interest rates are still in a very low environment. we have a chance to do something here. adam: ira, do you agree with that? do we see oil also, by the way, breaking below $50 a barrel in the beginning of 2015? >> you know, oil is in what stephane said on the parabolick move. you're in it right now. so trying to pick where it's going to stop, there's no sense in that. what you want to do is keep selling the rallies until there's reason not to sell them, whether oil stops at $50 or $40, there's no way to know. once speculators get ahold of a market, they push it as far as they can, and markets and bear
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trends tend to fall further than more people think. so that's what i think you have going on. as for interest rates in the other sectors, he's right again. you've got this end of the year squaring up. what do i want to own going into year end? gee, are energies going to be a good play? that's the game you have going on from now right through new year's day. adam: ira, are you saying -- are are you talking rhetorically or from personal experience? is energy where you want to be going into 2015, ira? >> no. as a futures trader, i just go where the action is. this is not about investing for the long term, it's more of a hit and run game, and i hope the traders understand that. that's what i am, not an investor, a trader. for me, i look at a chart and where the action tells me to go, that's where i'm going. adam: what about you, stephane? name any specific stocks that
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might not have the attention of investors just yet. >> well, you know, i'll trade almost anything, but right now right after this season i want to see how the retailers did, and i want to see how stocks such as ups and fedex did because they're very much associated with amazon and the other retailers. adam: would consumer discretionary be a good play in the fist part of the year -- first part of the year because we're seeing money put back in the consumer's pocket, and we also, a lot of consumers were able to get rid of some of their revolving debt during the great recession, so are they poised to continue a rally in retail and other consumer discretionary stocks? >> if you look at a lot of the retail spending numbers, they're all trending in the right direction. i can't promise you anything, but i do think it's probably a positive thing for the next couple month, that retail sector. adam: ira, what worries you as we go towards the end of the year with, essentially, three sessions left to trade? i know they say if this santa claus rally doesn't hold on the
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31st, we could be in for the bear market. >> yeah, that's like telling me who's going to win the super bowl. i don't why into that. -- buy into that. you've got a stronger set of fundamentals right now. the last few days don't mean anything, i don't care if you're trading here or not. it's how do you go into that january time frame, and stephane's got it. i think there's going to be a move. the question is, is it another leg to the upside, or do we finally get something of a correction in the market? so i think you just be cautious right here. this is not the time, folks, to get bold. this is still very much the end of the year hit and run. adam: in 20 seconds, ira -- excuse me, stephane, you want to wrap it up for us? >> it sounds like me and this guy could get together and make some money, because we think a lot alike. [laughter] adam: i'll have the producers hook you guys up over the phone. you might make quite a bit of money. peter barnes is counting down the top five washington
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issues of 2014 which impact our portfolios. and starting with the affordable care act. peter, take it away. >> reporter: well, adam, the president has pledged to fight republicans who want to roll back obamacare which, by the way, has been good for health insurance companies and health insurance stocks in this past year. but republicans got ammunition to attack it further thanks to mit professor jonathan gruber, an architect of health care reform, who called american voters "stupid "about it. a recent fox news poll found that voters didn't really appreciate that. 56% are at least somewhat bothered by gruber's comments. the poll also found a record 58% of those surveyed want obamacare repealed. they might get their wish next year through the supreme court. on march 4th it will hear arguments in king v. burwell, a follow-up to the 2012 case in which the court narrowly ruled obamacare constitutional. this time the issue is whether
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the irs can give certain people tax credits to help them pay for their health insurance. analysts say if the courts say no, it could cost about five million low and moderate income people their credit, a serious setback for obamacare. >> take that subsidy away, it's very possible, likely even, that that person won't be able to afford to continue to carry health care cover an. coverage. >> reporter: but in the meantime, the administration is powering ahead and trying to sign people up. it says so far 6.4 million people have signed up for coverage in 2014 through health care exchanges and in 2015 remember that the previously-delayed employer mandate finally kicks in for companies that m ploy more workers. so wall street will be watching all of these developments in the new year. adam? adam: wall street will be watching as will you and the rest of fox business and fox news. thank you very much, peter barnes. the closing bell rings in roughly 50 minutes. it might have gotten the best
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reviews, but people across the united states were not going to be told they can't watch "the interview" simply because hackers didn't like it. sold out across the country yesterday. we're going to talk about whether american pride means big profits with one of the theater managers who actually chose to show the controversial movie. and 2014 was the year of smartwatches and cyber hacks, so what will be the top tech trends of 2015? we're going to speak to one of the biggest tech analysts on the street about his predictions. ♪ ♪
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make the best entertainment part of your holidays. catch all the hottest handpicked titles on the winter watchlist, only with xfinity from comcast. ♪ ♪ adam: all right. the closing bell will ring in 45 minutes, and take a look at the year on the screen -- green on the screen. the russell 2000, by the way, could hit its ninth record close for the year, the s&p 500 also in record territory. what, it's like 54th record close for the year if we end the day in the green. keep an eye on this, the santa claus rally seems to be in full swing. hundreds of movie theaters across the nation made internal arrangements for the showing of "the interview," the comedy that depicts the assassination of kim jong un. sony pictures decided to release it on multiple platforms, and it's been -- you could call it successful so far.
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but how will the hackers respond to sony's bold move? joining me now is a cybersecurity expert, also with us the manager of a local new york city movie theater, cinema village, which is showing "the interview." lee, you actually recited my country 'tis of thee before the show filmed yesterday. what inspired you to do that? >> you know, it was a completely spur of the moment thing. it was what i was feeling. we had a full house, it was the first crowd in new york city to see the movie, and i felt patriotism. i felt freedom, and i wanted to acknowledge that. adam: and did the crowd react? was there thunderous applause? is the movie what the reviewers say, this wouldn't have gone anywhere had it not been for all the attention? >> i don't think so. the response to the movie has been incredible. you can hear the laughter and the applause outside the theater. it's been really incredible. it's a funny film.
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it really is. i think without any of the controversy, it would still be a hit. adam: okay. gary, what about you? i know there was this group trying to take credit for shutting down xbox and playstation devices yesterday. are they responsible, or is it the hackers who went after sony who might be responsible, and how are they responding to the film now being out? >> well, adam, lizard squad has been upset at a different group, not sony pictures entertainment, but they've been upset at the sony playstation network team for quite some time, since 2011, when some of their members were arrested. so i think lizard squad did attack the playstation network, and there's a group called finest squad that's actually fighting back. so you got these cyber-bullies fighting each other online right now. adam: it's really remarkable. in regards to the hackers who went after sony, it seems they've been incredibly are silent since sony made the announcement people would be able to see the film, or has there been some activity?
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>> i agree with you. i think it was a false flag that they tried to bully folks. lizard squad did claim credit in august of this year, they sent out a tweet that caused a sony executive and the plane he was on to be diverted, american airlines. so these folks could be very dangerous as well, but i believe the guardians of peace is connected to the north korean government. adam: lee, was there any concern on your part or on the part of the people at the film that someone might do something stupid? we've been told by the fbi that the threats were not credible, and the big chains still haven't come back to the table to show this film. they're worried about liability. >> exactly. you have to take the threats seriously, of course. i spoke to someone from the fbi yesterday at length, and i spoke to the local nypd, and since there wasn't anything specific or credible, we had nothing to respond to. so once the lights went down,
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once the movie started, that was the last thing anyone was thinking about. it was just a movie. adam: i'm curious, have to ask you if you can, what can you share with me and about all of us -- and with all of us about what the fbi and you talked about? >> without getting too specific, mostly anti-terrorism response, how to recognize when things could be a little iffy. nothing specific. adam: you think the other 299 theaters showing the film got those phone calls yesterday? >> i would imagine they did. adam: were you surprised to get the call? >> not that surprised. i lived through the salman rushdie nonsense in the '80s. adam: right. >> so it's nothing, nothing new. i sort of expected something hike that. adam: yeah. but in the 1980s, gary, you couldn't shut down whole internal, you know, i.t. networks, and now you can. i so how will the future, you know, whether it's the north koreans or the hackers who are
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working with them, how might they attack the united states not physically, but in a future hack? will they go after theater chains, or will they go after an event in their anger? >> they're definitely going to go after critical infrastructure if they can. not physically in the u.s., that would be very difficult for them to get operatives here, but through remote access trojans and phishing attacks where people become victimized from the inside out. and if we get a little smarter -- this is kind of a wake-up call to all of america to start to harden our networks in ways that sony didn't do. sony had silos where different parts of organization were separate, and the csio who left in september said he had a hard time connecting and seeing his entire network. that's a problem, and we've got to let that not occur on critical infrastructure. adam: do you think we'll see something like this in the near future? >> i'm predicting that 2015's going to be the year of the remote access trojan.
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we're going to see that in oh areas, and -- other areas, and the best thing we can do is start to clean up our network, create policies for our employees, use encryption and be prepared because they will attack again. adam: lee, let me finish up with you on all of this. you're going to have lines, i would imagine, outside the theater today. is this going to be a hit film, and would you recommend sony increase distribution if they can? >> i think it would make sense for them. it definitely has potential to be a hit film judging from the audiences that identify seen. whether they do that or not -- i was, frankly, more prized and pleased that they -- surprised and pleased that they reversed their decision. adam: was the audience mostly -- what was the demographics of the audience? young, middle-aged, veterans? >> completely across the board. we've had parents bringing their children. if i could pinpoint one thing, i would say it's people interested in freedom, people who wanted the show up and show the world that we will not listen to
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anybody else when it comes to what we want to see. adam: lee peterson, thank you very much for joining us. gary, you as well. you're the cybersecurity expert, so we appreciate your joining us to talk about these issues. closing bell's going to ring in 40 minutes. what a year it's been for tech between hot new apps, blockbuster ipos and must-own gadgets. who cares about 2014 now. we have a tech insider who's going the break down the hottest trends of 2015 and how you'll be able to make some money. speak speaking of money, on line holiday sales are on track to hit a record this holiday season. we're going to break it all down for you next. ♪ ♪ so i can reach ally bank 24/7, but there are no branches?
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so ally bank really has no hidden fethat's right. accounts? it's just that i'm worried about you know "hidden things..." ok, why's that? no hidden fees, from the bank where no branches equals great rates. adam: closing bell rings in roughly 35 minutes. we're going to take a look at how the financial sector is doing, and as you can see today it's doing well. bank of america, citigroup, jpmorgan sacks, the usual suspects all trading higher. what trends are going to be hot in 2015? which companies should an investor keep an eye on? joining us now on the phone in a
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fox business exclusive is rob enderle, enderle group exclusive. it's good to see you, rob. thanks for joining us. >> glad to be here. adam: let me jump right into it. 3-d printing, we were all enthralled last year and this year with 3-d printing, and we ain't seen nothing yet, right? >> exactly right. we start moving the mainstream, you know, best buy's selling it, staples is selling printers, it looks like schools are out buying individuals, schools are using it for younger kids so they can build and play with the things they design on the computer. adam: that's the key. and when it's no longer, one, you know, the gadget you buy and print to show people to impress them but actually using it to do something that you're then going to utilize, that's what's coming next year, right? >> exactly right. a lot of companies are building prototyping machines that you can use to build something so you can see what it looks like before you put it on a major manufacturing line.
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building it out of ceramics, metals and plastics. adam: potentially, in 2015, will we see the r&d phase in the manufacturing sector actually shorten the timeline by which a product comes to market because of that? >> yeah, absolutely. the speed in which you can prototype on a 3-d printer is so much faster than your typical methodology that you can get a product through the process and into manufacturing a lot quicker. adam: all right. let's -- we were just talking about the movie, "the interview," with a cybersecurity expert. i have to imagine that software in 2015, everything we're going to talk about at least in the first quarter is going to be centered around security, or is something else coming our way? >> exactly. it's got, this korean thing has a lot of companies scared half to death. we're rethinking e-mail, exactly what you put into e-mail. but, yeah, this breach at sony has got the security firms scrambling.
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watch intel mcafee, that's the only from this down into the process and into hardware, and it's right now almost impossible to get around their technology as the result. that put them in a really good position going forward. adam: and is that a position for e-mail? we have had different guests talking about text messaging encrypted at the source and at the final destination whereas we mail, it's not as secure because you can screen grab the e-mail, or is there something that's going to surprise us? >> this keeps you from getting the breach in the first place. remember, they got into sony. they dumped everything that was in sony. they dumped the e-mail, they dumped the movies in production, the scripts, they got access to all of their files. with regard to e-mail, your best bet is to really think about what you're putting in e-mail, and if you don't have to put it there, leave it out. adam: stephen hawking as well as elon musk are very worried about artificial intelligence. do we need to be worried?
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those two men are pretty intelligent when it comes to this topic. >> well, you know, there's an outfit in place called the life belt foundation, they actually have a service that launched to protect us against this. it's called -- [laughter] adam: it's called don't mess with people. >> a.i. shield. the it is a very real concern. however, in the meantime, we've got a lot of companies coming to market with short-term artificial intelligence that goes on top of analytics, firms like beyond corps which you haven't heard about and firms likic bm which -- like ibm which has watson. adam: are we talking about a computer capable of pulling hal in 2001: a space odyssey, a computer that can think for itself and think and choose whether to do right or wrong, or is it something else entirely? >> well, that's actually what we're talking about long term. right now, short term, it's just the ability to look at
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information, come up with an instant analysis of what the information actually means and start to make decisions or at least recommend decisions that you could actually make so they can intuit from the information, see the gaps in the information and actually see things like a human might but far faster. what elon musk and company are concerned about -- and i have to admit i'm part of that group -- once you put it into a weapons system or put it in charge of a massive, say a water reclamation or distribution system and if you don't do it right and it comes to the wrong conclusion, it could do a massive amount of damage before somebody could get around it. in fact, in some cases you probably -- it's that terminator outcome that we're kind of concerned about at the moment. adam: yeah. and that kind of a.i. doesn't involve the computer actually choosing to do wrong, it's just too quick a reaction based on the day coming in, correct? >> or the just misprogrammed. somebody put in a parameter the computer's acting on because the
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computer doesn't know right from wrong. it does pretty much what it's been programmed to do. but if the programmer makes the mistake, the computer could very well find the human element was redundant, and the best way to get rid of the human element is to get rid of it. adam: thank you, dave. the the 2001 fans will understand the reference. wear able technology, there's been a lot of hype about it. we have yet to get the iwatch. it's coming. what's next? is the clothing going to be reading your thoughts? wearable technology, is this a fad, or is this real and that's what we're going to get next year? >> well, it's an interim step before embedded technology. the eventual goal is technology that runs off the body's electrical system, and you actually have it surgically implanted. fortunately, we're not quite ready for that yet. this year will be the year we find out whether or not we have a hit product. we haven't had an ipod moment in this segment yet, so nobody really knows beyond some
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exercise gear what it is to buy. we're hoping that apple will be the quintessential product, but there are a lot of companies you haven't even heard of are coming to market this coming year. adam: rob, do we face a luddite moment, i guess the people in the 17th century england who burned weaving mills because it was putting them out of business? is there a kind of backward force that might come among people in different parts of the world saying too much with the technology? >> yeah. over the next three years, that's a very big concern. as we start dropping robots -- one of the trends we didn't mention, robots by baxter -- which can go in and replace a line-manufacturing employee, and we certainly saw amazon implement a series of robots this last year, that'll expand, and you take a lot of people out of jobs, everything from cab drivers, truck drivers, self-driving vehicles all the way to assembly line and even some thinking jobs that we talk about artificial intelligence.
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a lot of people get unemployed over a very short period of time without a lot of hope as to where else they could work. you could have a real problem. adam: rob enderly, how about a nice game of chess? i think that's the line from the movie "war games." [laughter] thank you very much. >> my pleasure. adam: yes. i am a frustrated tech geek. the closing bell rings in 27 minutes. american consumers shop til they dropped this holiday season. that's right, we're going to talk about the winners and losers as well as whether or not this momentum will continue for the sector now that the holidays are over. and only three trading days left in the year, so how should you set your portfolio to get the most bang for your buck in what's left in 2014? we've got two of the smartest minds on the street with what investors need to do to insure their prosperity in 2015. ♪ ♪ she inspires you.
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♪ rich: 22 minutes until the closing bell. handful of stocks breaking higher. others are lagging. let's go to lauren simonetti. at the new york stock exchange. have a look at today's winners and losers, lauren. >> hi, adam. of the show you a treo of winners. gopro up for the second day in a row. big day for gopro. first lockup period expired on those shares a couple days ago. second piece is positive comments from wedbush
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3-d systems showing a nice up arrow. win easy and losers. christmas eve the company reported solid profits. 40% profit growth for their marriage three organic eggs. now the stock is down. tenet healthcare this is rare down arrow in this group. teen al lit container store selling off. adam, send it back to you. adam: lauren simonetti at nyse. holiday season is supposed to be the most wonderful time of year for retailers. now that it is over time to see how the retailers did like macy's and jcpenney. they lured people in to discounts with headphones and winter apparel. was it big enough to retailers to cash in looking into 2015 what kind of trend can we expect. we have broken asossi. and jeff flock who is in
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chicago. let's talk brick and mortar. were they packed, was it crazy or light in your impression? >> i also came from state street today which was also busy as well. we got numbers from mastercard today. national retail federation said 4.1% which would have made it a big year. mastercard said 5 pine 5% on their numbers they released today. anecdotally at least it seems like it was a pretty good year. adam: for people in chicago it is just not christmas without marshall fields. marshall fields right? i don't want to -- macy's. >> sign is still on the building. adam: let's bring in brian here. brick-and-mortar. they're not out of business. they are not dead. >> the malls were crowded except for radioshack. theoretically this is their last holiday season. brick-and-mortar had a comeback season. why? consumers feel better. they want to hang out in best buy store and shop the aisles at
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walmart, target and toys "r" us. why is gopro so hot today? that stuff was out of stock during the who say season. pricey item out of stock. adam: in terms of traditional retail, jcpenney, death watch or they live to fight another christmas season. >> the interesting thing about jcpenney the stock was down 35% after black friday after they told you holiday season was strong. they had a good season. racks picked over. i'm looking to best buy in the holiday reports coming in january. adam: sears holding, did they have have a good holding. >> they did not. all the associates i talk to on the qt they were surprised how slow the traffic was. telling, sears, kmart, lots of stock, 50, 60%, off, disasterous holiday season. abercrombie & fitch we'll hear about them in january. adam: catering the teenage market is difficult. jeff, sharing with brian story, i was at bloomingdale's last week. i'm in the elevator.
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this is the most telling sign of the season to me. i overheard two clerks talk in the elevator. one said we're having a terrific season. is that being echoed? have you picked up on, forgive me for eavesdropping but have you eavesdropped on any conversations? because i've seen you at stores coughing this for us? >> higher end. bloomingdale's i think you make a good point. the higher end, as brian said, lower end, sears not so much but the higher end definitely got the traction this year. even like amazon. you look at amazon, they just released numbers today, talking about how many people used their app. 60% of all amazon shoppers this year used the app the app, mobile app. that is huge. it is double what it was last year. so, you know, people on amazon prime, again higher end. adam: 10 million. >> amazon prime had 10 million people that took amazon prime. that is a billion dollars worth of revenue. adam: talk about this, brian. amazon, first of all with the people using app on amazon fire
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or doing it on a different mobile device? >> probably doing it on a different mobile device. the bigger picture with amazon i think is the first season where they lost a little about the of their competitive edge. walmart, target and all these companies thousand price matching each other. they have greatly upgraded how the website looks and how it functions. i think amazon is a little bit of trouble here. retailers come back and fought against companies. >> amazon is up right now. jeff, one last question, brian one last question. 2015 good for retailers that consumers get gasoline induced pay increase. >> you have to believe. that helped a little bit now. if you keep oil rice prices where they are and gas prices where they are, that is, i know you don't drive as much as you used to there but, living in new york. but most of the country out there, you know, that's a huge piece of their budget. to have the money that their bookket has to be good for retail. adam: brian, what do you think, can retail and retail sector hold the the gains?
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>> won't be every month when a consumer shops back to school, spring season and holiday season 2015. i they will. this holiday season definitely told you that. adam: brian, thank you very much. jeff as always, good to see you. >> good to see you. adam: the closing bell will ring in almost 15 minutes. 2014 is just about over. we look to the future and see you making money. coming up, our market panel tells you where you should be putting your money in 2015. while the markets closed at top of the hour, we're always on call for you. go to call and sign up for claman on call and deliver biggest headlines and biggest red hair of the day. that is liz claman. goes directly to your smartphone. back in a minute. y'know what my business
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adam: take a look at markets right now. dow and s&p are on track for
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another record close t was just three full trading sessions left in the year, investors turning their attention to 2015. will it bring new record highs or is it time to take some profit off the table? let's bring in our all-star panel to weigh in on this joining me now is lindsey piegza , and david chalupnik and nuveen asset head of equities. welcome to you both. let me start with you, lindsey. are you concerned about manufacturing next year. should i be cautious and cash out now and hold my card for a little bit. >> we are a little concerned about manufacturing and concerned about investment. but on the positive side if we do continue to see energy price reprieve translate more money into consumers pockets that will certainly continue to push the consumer out into the marketplace to spend more at least first half of 2015. there is a little bit after balance which leads us to believe we'll see positive but modest growth in the economy as we turn the corner into the new year.
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adam: do you see modest or really strong growth going into the new year, david? >> we see modest growth as well but we do think market will continue to be good in 2015. the economy's growing. earnings are growing. the fed remains easy. central banks will remain easy. valuations are up a little bit but overall this is very good environment for the market. adam: when you say it's a good environment for the market, what could throw a wrench into that, david? europe possibly going into inflation? is china economy slowing down to a degree where it would pose a threat to us? >> the probably biggest risks to the u.s. are outside of the u.s. right now i would say probably would be russia would top the list. certainly because russia does have an impact on europe. europe does have an impact on us. china's been slowing. last night they eased a little bit. certainly japan has been trying to get their economy growing as well. so right now the biggest risk to us is outside of the u.s. adam: so lindsay, let me ask
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you, i know both of you will cringe when i say this but i'm all index fund. very simple, one, because i can't do individual stocks as a reporter but where should someone who wants to trade individual stock, which sectors in 2015 can protect you from a slowdown in china or deflation in europe? >> well, if you buy the idea that the consumer going to remain strong as we turn the corner into the new year, in part to energy price reprieve at the pump, certainly retail would be an interesting sector to get involved in. but of course, a a longer term, in order to maintain these types of robust spending levels we will have to see organic job and income growth here in the u.s. so it may be more of a short term play as opposed to a longer term sit and wait it out. adam: david, who are you most concerned about, sector or perhaps individual stock? i was just having a discussion about retail and we were talking about sears. in 2015 could be a really bad year for sears holdings. >> yes, you know our favorite sector we do agree with lindsey,
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for the first half of 2015 we do like consumer discretionary and retail. i think you have to look at specific stocks. so sears we do not hold but there are other companies such as target that would be a very good investment. they have a new ceo. they're lapping very easy comparisons from the credit problem they had last year. adam: right. >> they have target of canada which is losing a lot of money. if they fix that or get rid of that the stock could go higher. adam: lindsey, are there specific stocks not getting attention from people like me but that you would say, hey, pay attention, adam? >> as common it i won't pick out -- as an economist i won't pick out particular stocks but economy appears to gain a little more of an optimistic tone than it may warrant. i urge caution as we move into the new year as there are some slippery stones we're approaching. we had back-to-back quarters of very impressive growth. we're not seeing underlying
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organic momentum to the economy. which lead me to believe that the fed will remain very accommodative, through next six, 12, maybe longer months which will continue to fuel markets on aggregate. >> lindsay maybe you didn't cringe when i talked about index fund. the fed, even if they raise interest rates, it will be so small and miniscule the only way we get the interest rate increase that would have a real problem or hiccup for this economy if this economy was so gangbusters we had inflation that we just don't. it will be a small rate increase no matter, right? >> exactly. our forecast for the first fed rate increase coming in 2016. say it comes in the second half of 2015. talking at most, 25, 50 basis point increase in the second half of next year. janet yellen is very clear she has no interest in returning back to the tightening cycle we saw in the early 2000s where the fed went 25 basis points for every meeting at 17 consecutive meetings.
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this time around, 25 basis points. pause for a meeting. maybe two, three. and continue on from there. so could take years before we revert back to a two, three, even 4% normal rate on the fed fund. adam: david, i've got to wrap up with you real quick. with europe, not so much deflation. even if the ecb starts buying bond. they have restrictions there. you can't open stores on sunday. they just, they do everything they can to kill growth. isn't that accurate? >> you know, that is somewhat accurate. the u.s., we've, we've come through this very well outside of the u.s. though, there needs to be more structural reform. that has been slow to come. adam: i will thank both of you. lindsey and david. thank you so much for being here. happy new year to you. if i don't see you before 2015. let's take a real quick look at the boards as we get close to the closing bell. it is going to ring. in roughly six minutes, which will wrap it up for county down to the closing bell. "countdown to the closing bell."
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david asman will wrap up with the market's close. we'll see where they settle. will we tackle whether or not falling oil prices will -- we'll talk about falling oil prices and what it means in 2015. i'm going to learn to speak english again. you have a great day. so i can reach ally bank 24/7, but there are no branches? 24/7 it's just i'm a little reluctant to try new things. what's wrong with trying new things? feel that in your muscles? yeah... i do... try a new way to bank, where no branches equals great rates.
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há so ally bank really has no hidden fethat's right. accounts? it's just that i'm worried about you know "hidden things..." ok, why's that? no hidden fees, from the bank where no branches equals great rates. . david: hi, everybody, i'm david asman, thank you for joining us as we close out this hour of trading. go to lauren simonetti at the nyse. most people have apple stock, having a nice day today. >> reporter: very nice day. up around 2%. i was reading apple was one of the retailers who got most of their orders out on time. so few customer complaints. david: good for them. good to know, a lot of gold bugs out there, sour over the past year, today is a good day for gold. >> thin trading, gold was up about 2% today, reversing what was a three-day losing streak.
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some names doing well including newmont and anglogold, some up 4%. anglogold up more than 4%. david: the biotechs were down in the beginning of the week but made a slight comeback today. >> big uparrows including gilead and exion. all of them, volatile trade the past couple of days, turning in a nice performance today. david: under the christmas tree in a lot of family's houses were gopro products, gopro doing spectacularly today. >> two huge gains for the company. the first piece of news is the loss expiration expired a couple of days ago, and analysts comment the hero camera sold strongly over the holiday. david: we wanted to show gas down to 3 bucks or less.
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>> it hit $2.90 or under $3 for the first time in more than two years. david: they're trying to call it a santa claus rally, green arrows on the screen. the dow industrials trade up about 30 points. the nasdaq and the s&p up as well. and the russell 2000 into record territory today. russell 2000 hitting all-time highs. busy hour for you straight ahead. "after the bell" starts right now. and once again, i know you're getting tired of hearing, this a new record for the dow and the s&p today. even though we ended up only 25 points to the plus side. that is a record. into today's action. we have michael ball who says now is the time to buy into the energy sector. he thinks it's been beaten down enough t


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