tv After the Bell FOX Business January 30, 2015 4:00pm-5:01pm EST
losers. today's loser is definitely microsoft. david: visa? >> visa, stock split and a winner. liz: i got to hear it, it's a friday. here come the bells on wall street. david: down 248 points, wow! >> definitely at or near the low of the session. a real acceleration in the final minutes. we have red on the screen and it's the s&p 500 down 1.25%. the russell getting crushed, down two full percentage points on a day where oil saw sea legs and spiked. so did gold. "after the bell" starting right now. . david: whole week's action, tom lyden from etf trends, eric marshall from the hodges fund with three picks to add to your portfolio, and joining us from the cme, two of the best, fox
business contributor phil flynn and joe cusack from money bot. phil, what happened? what made it that made it spike so much? >> it was a combination of factors today. everybody was short this market. hedge funds had the biggest short position in over four years, and today's the last day of the month, and hedge funds like the lock in the profits to get aid and that went up. what really accelerated the market day today were a couple of things. baker hughes rig count. the biggest recount in 24 years, this was the biggest recount week over week, and since the drop in rig counts began, that's a sign we're going to see u.s. oil production start to level off, if not decline later in the year. so this is coming fast and furious. we've also had this incredible week of every energy company talking about capital expenditure cuts, that's going
to take its toll on production not just here in the u.s. but globally. everybody will put it in a market that can continue to spike next week. liz: joe, as you spin it forward to next week and you look at the eminis and the s&p futures. what happened in the last couple minutes of trade that would have dropped the market to its knees? >> i think right now everyone saw the move in the bonds. at 151, i mean, i didn't expect this pullback into the close, i'll tell you that much. we were buying vix options going into midday today, volatility has been all over the map. you got the curve in a weird position, so right now, you just basically saw going into this weekend that we typically didn't see the volatility or that premium come out into the weekend. it's staying in, there liz. i'm telling you this is an ugly close into next week. david: it is an ugly close. s&p below 2000. tom lyden, ask you about the
small and mid cap stocks getting hammered. the biggest downward movement of all the indices and yet you like mid and small cap stocks, why? >> i think what we're going to find, david, when it gets traction and everything reverts back to the mean. last year small cap didn't do anything. david: let me stop you there. would you consider after a 2% drop in this day alone, a trashing of the russell 2000, small and midsized caps. >> one step further, it's a great buying opportunity. the other thing to remember as far as small caps, they're doing business in the u.s. oolts multinationals getting hit by rising dollar because exports are going to go down. if you want to play a dollar move, small caps from a valuation standpoint are looking much better. liz: that's true, although as we bring eric marshall into the conversation. eric, i think that tom is
right. the smaller names don't have as much exposure to international currency gyrations, and yet you saw the russell get clobbered today. what's going on there and how would you play the equity lend? >> at the hodges funds, we're finding opportunities in the small caps, however, not all small caps are created equal. you got to take advantage of some of this volatility and some of the turbulence that we're seeing around earnings season, and really take advantage of individual stock selection. so i think within the small cap stocks, you can look for companies that don't have a lot of foreign currency exposure, and aren't necessarily dependent on what commodity prices do as well. liz: you've got three names, lithium motors, eagle materials and force net. is there a common threat through them? >> in the case of lithium,
consumer improving and upgrade cycle with automotives. with eagle, it's a case where building materials, gypsum wall board and cement are doing well. and penalized because business is tied to the technology sector and forthnet, this is a secular growth opportunity that isn't necessarily dependent on what happens with the broader economy or what happens with the foreign exchange markets. >> phil flynn, gold. one day down $25, the next day up $28.50. what's going on with gold? >> so erratic, dave, right now. it doesn't know what to focus on. that is the problem. on one hand, you have the incredibly strong deflationary pressures which drive gold lower. you know, you had -- yesterday
you had janet yellen speaking in front of a lot of democrats saying hey, i know the economy is getting better, but we're not going to raise rates any time soon. that brought the gold back right now. but i think what's really happening in the stock market right now, and i think what's happening in the gold market right now is we're seeing fear back into the market. going into the weekend, people do not like to see what's going on. david: it's a fear play with europe. >> it is a fear play, very simple. liz: joe, we cannot finish this conversation without bringing something you touched upon. treasury yields, 1.66 for the 10-year, that is a huge manifestation of fear in the market, why? >> i think first of all, when you see international rates in negative and whether it's in europe or in the far east, you see greece pulling out of the eu, where are they going to park money? liz: pfizer or -- >> they're not buying stocks. they're going to buy a risk-free rate. bottom line is if they're
having the low yields, that's where the money is coming, from which really, really makes traders get a little nervous and you're seeing that. you're not seeing the dip buyers come in here. i'll tell you, as far as the small caps and stuff like that, be very careful into the next couple of weeks. we're in really dangerous territory right now. david: tom, we are in dangerous territory, but i don't think we're in as dangerous territory as the europeans or the asians. i know they're not going into recession, it's slowing way down. they're printing more money all over the world, we may or may not be raising rates, we're not printing money as fast as they are. doesn't that mean the dollar is a good place to make a bet on right now? >> it is, david two, specific etf's, one by power shares and wisdom tree. the uup is specific to developed nations, it's going to have more effect by declining dollar and it's done
very, very well. the wisdom tree more emerging market balance, usdu, great opportunities. even if you have money market, it kicks off a little yield. and if you feel that this dollar appreciation, euro decline is in the early innings, it makes sense to diversify there. liz: you got to lot of dollar. there's the play for that one. eric, before we go, do you see a black swan out there on the international landscape that tells you to stay u.s.? >> you know, not necessarily, but i do think that the u.s. is much better shape. and when you look at the earnings power of the companies in the u.s. economy, we see opportunities out there for owning productive assets that make sense, even in this environment. david: okay, guys, very quickly, who's it going to be?
starting with tom lydon on sunday? >> patriots, 28-21. david: wow, even a score. eric, what do you think? . >> the super bowl indicator, i have to go with the seahawks, because the market does better if the nfc wins. david: we don't have time here, phil, quickly, who's going to win? >> seahawks, anybody that can beat the packers is okay with me. david: joe? >> seahawks even though i'm a hacker fan. liz: i wonder how don hodges would pick, he passed last week, our sympathy to the hodges family. he was a great value investor. david: and created an institution that will live on. tech giant xerox falling more than 3% after the company cut outlook citing currency pressures. liz: the strong dollar, had you watched our show earlier this
week, that news wouldn't have surprised you. >> take out two names that might get whacked by currencies once again because they haven't figured out how to gain a stronger dollar? >> dana holding is one of them. i don't like talking about the negatives. i'd like to talk about the positives. xerox has gotten hit in the past too. david: he knew. liz: one of the most highly anticipated super bowls as the reigning champs seattle seahawks taking on the new england patriots sunday. david: cheryl casone at the heart of it all in the nfl experience in phoenix, arizona. cheryl, you had good interviews. >> thank you so much. fans are flooding in now. picking up steam at the nfl experience. i wanted to show you we're in front of the stats zone, where the fans can loo at the technical analysis that goes into football! it is a very technical game.
yes, we're inside the experience, outside the experience along tostitos boulevard. downtown phoenix has been transformed into overall nfl fan experience, and that's been the best part of being here in phoenix today, and obviously the sponsors and the companies that go with the super bowl are very much hoping that of those millions of eyeballs on sunday are going to bring them a lot of business. back to football. never mind that. we talked to a lot of the sponsors and ceo's. it's about the football. yesterday we had a great chance to speak to somebody. i'm sorry, i think he's amazing, and one of the greatest players of all-time, joe montana. we asked him, what do you make of deflategate? here's what he said. >> easy to figure out who did it. did tom do it? no. but tom likes the balls that way, obviously he wouldn't have 11 of them that way without him complaining. as a quarterback, you know how you like the ball. if it doesn't feel like that,
something is wrong. it's a stupid thing to even be talking about. they shouldn't have the rule anyway. if you want to see the game played the best. everybody likes a different grip, everybody likes a different feel. >> that was joe's take -- he's joe to me now. that was joe's take on deflategate. we talked to archie manning and asked him how does it feel to be at the super bowl and not have a son playing in the super bowl? >> i'm not going to be nervous. those are two great teams out there. they deserve to be there. but i guess frankly i don't care who wins. but both of them are deserving teams and built up a lot of momentum to get where they are. they're well coached. great quarterbacks. but i won't be nervous this year. >> i tell you, the fans are having a great experience, dan marino walks by, all these incredible players, most of
whom i don't know who they are. in who the dallas cowboys are and i'm heart broken about that. along with the other guests on the show. i'm going for seattle. that's my big pick. liz: have fun, cheryl, thank you very much. david: archie manning, one of the finest men in football. great guy. wonderful experience for you, cheryl. great stuff. forget the 70 inch plasma. you can watch the super bowl online anywhere you happen to be. what does that mean for advertisers? billions of dollars in play here. it would result in lower ratings? it could have investors rethinking the money they're spending. liz: as january goes, goes the year. this january, we have down arrows across the board. will we, can we escape the january effect? david: also, royal caribbean falling fair second day as earnings disappoint. with the stock up more than 50% the past year, did investors jump overboard a little too
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live streams of events to your iphone or other devices may be the option a lot of people choose. that can mean all kinds of things about billions of ad dollars and where they go. here to explain is imagine tv executive kamal verwanni. you streamed the world cup. >> we did. david: from whom did you get streaming right? >> it was complicated. had to get local live rights in germany for all 64 games and got the catch-up rights including time shifting rights from fifa. david: since nbc is broadcasting it on television, they don't have to worry about that? >> no, they don't. david: others who may be streaming do, and i'm wondering about ads. when you ran ads, did you get to keep all the revenue? did you share it? were you forced to put on the ads they wanted to you put on
or what? >> our agreement with the broadcasters are leave the ads intact and the catch-up and time shifting market, you can watch a game later, we'll end up with ad replacement. technology is not there in germany and couldn't do it in this case. david: there is omnicom which has influence of 50 billion dollars of ad revenue had an interview with the "wall street journal" in october. and the head of omnicom suggested he's been trying to get his advertisers to move all the way up to 25% of their ad dollars to online video from tv. you have seen that movement begin? >> there's a huge shift to digital advertising in general. i don't think they are mutually exclusive. do you your ad in the super bowl, you make it big, a big splash and get a long tail. on youtube and other media outlets, people see the ad over
and over and over again. david: as we mentioned nbc doesn't have to pay, they see a return of ad revenues because they own the company. >> right. david: some cases no change. but there is a fundamental shift beginning, and it is looking forward to the day when primarily people are watching streaming video rather than tv. >> absolutely, two numbers, 40% of our customers in germany only watch tvoon internet tv service like ours. and 68%, even the more amazing number only are interested in watching tv. they are not interested in having a tv device in the home, and they watched, 68% watched imagine only on a mobile device. david: correct me if i'm wrong, you are only in europe? >> europe, sweden and germany and thinking about moving to the western hemisphere as well. david: you'd like to get the big kahuna, the united states. i imagine every cable company
in america has your picture with a target on it. you are not popular among cable providers, are you? you threaten their business. >> we are competitors, there is a change to the dramatic shift in the industry whether we are the catalyst, the reality is that's not something you can stop. david: is there room for both cable and satellite and the streaming video service? >> i don't think so, i think it will all be streaming video over time. it will be stream content to your device anywhere you like. david: how long? >> started in the united states. the content dam is breaking, two or three years away. david: only two or three years? >> from the major part how people watch tv. david: congratulation for your success, we'll be watching carefully. tell us what you think, what is your favorite super bowl commercial of all time? and do the ads pay off? send us a message on facebook or tweet us at fbnatb, your
answers are coming up. i like the budweisers. liz: the clydesdales where they kneel, yep, brought me to tears. a bad omen for the housing market? it could mean it's time to ditch housing stocks. our panel debates not as easy as it sounds. investors were hungry for shake shack stock. jumped 141%. could taking such a big bite make your portfolio thick? if russell wilson doesn't win the super bowl, he may tower over tom brady in special aspect. we'll tell you all about it. you just got a big bump in miles.
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historical trend and people looked at j. gary for the rest of the year. with the s&p will be indexed go lower? sometimes it doesn't we have profitable trading.com and fox business tracy byrnes for the friday panel. it has 85 percent accuracy what about this time? >> it was out last year aid we had a struggle will be ended closing up between that 10 and 12 percent level that i talked about on your show. so markets can do anything they told us they could not go down three years in a row but they did. there is no surprise talking late december about the rocky start swiss february or early march.
liz: he says that bucks the trend. what do you say? remedy is a little more optimistic. honda down january looking at 1950 is the tossup 40 percent of the time it is a the 50/50 shot looking at the options market they believe it is valid dial it says more volatility but ideas think we end up we will diad good returns but it is more like four or 6% it will be a big hurdle for the s&p 500. liz: really think that's the predictor? >> the world is a different
place and it is a stock picker's market but i tell you based on where companies are in the consumer is slowly coming out from that rock they have been a living under. >> consumers are living in there parents' basement. turning into a 20 year low. i say wait a minute. but this could turn around. >> by the way the historical average was 19 -- and sarah 1985 that is exactly where we anger not right now. the work force is much more mobile. >> would you buy the derivative plays?
>> i would buy those properties here in and the rental properties the mobile work force will need a place to live in rental these is the place to put your money. >> i agree. >> people need to get out from under the rock to see if interest rates are going up by should buy something. and home ownership there is people getting smart saying we don't need this right now. >> household formation whether that includes renters looks like a very good number that could be a precook -- a precursor to say now i am ready to pay a mortgage. >> that's right. one of the negative things about the real-estate market for quite a while was a lack of household formation.
also listen to those millenials that did buy home in 2008 at the bottom and tell their friends how much money they have made and that will start this snowball rolling as well. >> then they say where is my car? [laughter] >> we will talk to the shake shack our investors biting off more than 80 into? >> for but treasury secretary says the markets are telling us something very powerful right now. that investors are ignoring and the message is not good. you must hear this. and a the rocky wreak week for royal caribbean but they don't see choppy weather ahead but the ec a glowing
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shack ceo huge ipo and it just jumped 132%. sure to follow the herd does that give you indigestion? we are back with our panel. >> my kids and choose this overt mcdonald's and a day. >> mine also. >> we would hang out after school i go to shake shack the way it is used it is a cool place the of the food is fantastic that is one to watch. >> do they have those in florida? they are expanding quickly. >> i have not cede one down here. i did not read the prospectus but i have seen the product. liz: the ax to grind for those that did read the prospectus they have 60 stores expecting exponential growth and can they do it and is there that appetite when there are other choices
? >> there is the time of them and i have never even heard of the company until they announce it is going public. but looking into the numbers as an investor isn't safe to buy within the first week of the ipo. let it sell off but with those companies now they are lower after the ipo. i will but the company mature than put it into chipolte at this moment. liz: how does raymond james look at the ipo? jump in on the first day of trade? >> raymond james turns down more ipo business than we except. it is the retail driven 70 percent are retail driven. we are not as big into the ipo market.
liz: and has been a very busy market for the ipo but what surprised our panel from in the things that happened this week? >> nothing. no snow. how much does that cost the economy? the numbers are still nonofficial how many businesses were closed, even for what? even my kids said they should have went to school that day. liz: i'd like to air on the side of caution but there you go. >> the biggest surprise was the greek elections for socialist party and then you saw what happened of what shot up at 19%.
>> and the banks were closed. >> i feel that you stole the good stuff. >> we saw wage growth after inflation only growing at one point 5%. that now the s&p is setting itself up for the worst month. liz: we will see about wages but watch out. that strong dollar will start to affect us. liz: great to see you. was tried to get him the shake jack burger.
david: he is the key to. the bond market is streaming with a very big message with larry summers to says they are ignoring we cannot afford to also russell wilson going for back-to-back wins but he was not only the top pick he was at the bottom of the barrel. but lee hawkins and saw he had a future way back and he will be with us coming up. ♪ you'd expect us to have a highly skilled call center. kevin, neill holley's on line one. ok, great. and we do. it's how edward jones makes sense of investing.
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for a free quote today,call liberty mutual insurance at see car insurance in a whole new light. liberty mutual insurance. david: to dave maria bartiromo talk to larry summers and ask about said gdp report if he had a very surprising warning for investors. >> there is a tendency be have seen it almost every year at this time since the recession to believe we are out of the woods to let out a sigh of relief to move on to focus on the other problems and we need is to keep in mind particularly with all that is happening that is problematic around the world that an assurance
of rapid growth is not yet present and i think markets are telling us something pretty powerful with what has happened to interest rates it would be a mistake if we did not heed that. david: catchall of the debut on fox business.com. liz: with doubts about his abilities because he is a little short for a quarterback russell wilson was the 70th overall draft pick. david: even in the third round but fast for three years later on track to become the highest-paid quarterback even more than brady. we have lee hawkins and the reporter who saw it coming you had the interview with him before he was picked. >> i did. a couple days before. david: what did you see?
>> a quarterback at the university of wisconsin and i am on the board of visitors i saw practice is and i observed him and ask him about that leadership potential but his ability to come from behind under immense pressure. >> a -- she has done it throughout his career if they were not familiar with his playing style. also he learns of playbook in 28 days he played major league baseball then one final year of eligibility and italy had 21 days to learn the playbook. liz: he is a superstar athletes period he is on the short side people thought he could not see over the weidman. >> i think that is a logical conclusion except there are exceptions if you look bad true breezy is excellent who was only 5-foot 11 inches in
he told me he does indeed to see their feet -- receivers if you know, the play book you know, there is a person that is supposed to be there and you trust to the receiver to put the ball where it goes. he also has the emotional intelligence. david: we have a tape. >> i am trying to be the exception to the rule i believe i have the aptitude whether they take may first pick overall or number 200. there is a lot that goes into it. how do we do when the game is on the line or the third-down situation. liz: 5-foot 11 inches that give it a 5-foot 7 inches was of a star but what does he get to say to basically
prove everybody wrong? he has massive endorsements to be the highest-paid quarterback of all times. >> with get dash guaranteed money where they really need to guarantee a lot of his contract to keep him there. i think they will do it. it is the best time for him to negotiate to be re-signed to the seahawks and he already has american family insurance, microsoft and other commercials. that is pretty good for the third year quarterback. but because of the fact of the 2011 collective bargaining agreements precluded rookies it lofted into the three-year contract and was designed to keep those who were not proven to get excessive money. david: we will see callus comparisons between brady and him. we will see that time and again but just number one.
brady makes close at 15 million per year added all will he be equaled that amount? >> i think if you. rate when he renegotiates the contract i thank you will see 60 billion. david: dash and that is total figure. >> factor in of money from the beginning with the signing bonus and all of that. he earns the money he has heard every petty but what is cool about russell wilson he knows he needs to supplement that with the endorsements. but also he looks long-term. a lot of players resent him that he is a poster child. liz: and what role this 5-foot 11 inches short?
[laughter] >> i am 5-foot 10 inches. don't call be short. [laughter] david: asking on social 81 is the favorite super bowl advertisement of all time. >> the new budweiser loss put the commercial is very good. >> it was a turbulent week for royal caribbean despite earnings but the stock has been soaring and the company says next year even better. joining us with that story next. >> anteing one-year lower by a lot that have the biggest impact on your investment portfolio. we're back with the number one thing to watch. coming up. >> at the top of the al were the growing number of americans stashing cash in
unusual places. that is the consumer's story coming up in just a few minutes on the al "willis report". begins with the cloud. this is "titanfall," the first multi-player game built and run on microsoft azure. empowering gamers around the world to interact in ways they never thought possible. this cloud turns data into excitement. this is the microsoft cloud. when the moment's spontaneous, why pause to take a pill? or stop to find a bathroom? cialis for daily use is approved to treat both erectile dysfunction and the urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach,
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goldstein. adam, give people a sense of why this is going on with the company and why the stock is up. >> we gave guidance for 2015 will be a record year for the company and we definitely have positive guidance. people have been very focused on the benefits from the rapid fall in fuel prices but have not been as cognizant of the inverse affects of the strengthening of the american dollar on the value of foreign revenues, which is close to offset very and so instead of a huge fuel related benefit we have a slight net benefit when you offset the two against each other. then the caribbean market has been challenged and we have been talking about that on recent calls. that we think of the fact that we noted that that will probably
last through the first quarter may have been a secondary effect beyond the currency. stay with this area and speed to a talk about the success and how china and their success may have slowed down revenues. >> china has a fantastic market for us in 2014. in 2015 as we have discussed before, we are bringing the state of the art cruiseship to the market. we are very alleged on the china market. david: despite the slowdown in china's growth of your business has done nothing but increase. >> i realize there is a huge amount of attention being paid to china's prospective growth rate this year over last year and it's totally understandable in economic terms. the 100 million people left china to travel for business or leisure last year and less than 1% of those people left on a
cruise. at the existing level of economic activity, there is a huge opportunity for royal caribbean and the whole cruise industry and people are clearly excited about cruising and quantum is going to transform the marketplace. liz: the chinese must love the robotic bartender. that they and everything, with the big arm that has what people can take in, talk about the ticket sales for quantum where you can actually serve on the ocean. >> you can write 300 feet above the water in the quantum come in a skydiving experience has a lot of features never before seen and that has contributed to preemie and prices and that's
also voting welfare were those in the china seas. i think what is really galvanize the chinese market is the knowledge that the most advanced cruise ships in the worlds are coming to them. david: adam goldstein, thank you so much. royal caribbean president and ceo. the markets are fickle, but a 50% increase. we have been asking what your favorite super bowl ad is and whether or not you think pays off. spencer on facebook says if it did not payoff, companies would not pay the billions for the spots. liz: and jerry writes in to us and says i have never bought anything because of a commercial. they're fun to watch, but are you really going to buy the
product. david: and coming back next week, what do you think the number one thing will be? let's ask jared levy. >> well, next to that is the s&p level, 1992 is the support that we need to see next week. if we sneak allelic, i think we could see a 5% drawdown. and that is not a good thing. last but not least, i'm looking at earnings. i want to know what companies are saying and i want to hear the or cast. we are in the thick of it and the only way to learn other than tuning in is to listen what the ceos and cfos are saying about their businesses. liz: a lot of them are saying very strong dollars hurting them. we just heard adam goldstein saying that. >> yes, it was fascinating to hear that. that completely offset the
changes. david: very quickly, seattle or new england? >> new england. david: unless new england lose in the first half, it could be the case. liz: we will see you next week. gerri: hello, everyone, i am gerri willis, the show where consumers are our business starts right now. a growing number of americans getting rid of cable. comcast writes this on one company's belt. >> surely you get the message. >> that family is here to tell us what they are going to do now. and two teams in one nation, all getting ready for the super bowl. we have a preview and what is different about the commercials this year. and also a mansion in ohio burns to the ground