tv Making Money With Charles Payne FOX Business April 6, 2015 6:00pm-7:01pm EDT
chipotle ceo monte shares how his company is changing the fast food game and how you eat. that's it for tonight's willis report. have a great night. we'll see you back here tomorrow. ♪ charles: i'm charles payne, and you're watching "making money." the economy hits a brick wall. march job creation was a disaster. 126,000. january, february, they were revised lower by 69,000. the jobs, a loss. the atlanta fed said the first quarter gdp will be 0%. significantly different than the 1.9% they saw at the beginning of the year. just like that, all critical aspects of the economy seemed to come to a grinding halt. all of them. let's talk here. industrial production. they skipped on me. take my word for it. they're coming apart. despite all this stuff. i need you to look at this stuff. industrial production has been relatively
flat. real personal consumption has been edging lower. look what's cratering here. retail sales. we had the cheap gas. what happened to that. and probably scarier than anything else. spending has gone completely off a cliff. despite all that, the recovery -- well, listen, it could be on the verge of a recession. no matter what, look what the markets did today. we climbed off the campus and posted an impressive session. the big question is whether the experts see this as a temporary situation or if the us stock market is winning by default. let's go to nicole petallides for the pulse of the floor on the new york stock exchange. >> well, the pulse of the floor, charles, as i walk around. and i talk to many of the traders. even though we had this tough jobs report on friday. they're still playing it. they're believers. they're believers until they're not believers. and we're in our six-year of a bull market. it's somewhat tired and you may see consolidation.
they're still believers that the market is trending on the upside. scott was here on monday from t3 trading. he said, look, every monday here. the s&p is hovering around 2085. 2080. we were right at that level. they'll buy on the lows and sell as it moves higher. you had light volume. it's an easter monday. we'll see what the markets -- people are pushing off those rate hikes until the end of the year. no doubt. back to you. >> hopefully you wear green tomorrow. here to help us out, matt mccaul. hillary cramer. scottie nell hughes. and jim is back with us. we have a brand-new face. wilbur ross. he joins us for the entire night. we're grateful for it. let's do it. dig into the first real, real deal. wilbur, you made your fortune looking way into
the future. what do you think is going on with the stock market? it's supposed to be a harbinger of things to come six months from now. the market acts like it will be okay when the dust settles. >> it has a lack of alternatives. no interest rates on short-term paper. everyone is terrified of long-term paper because rates will go up. commodities are nowhere. people have to do something. they put it in stocks or buy paintings. >> hey, listen. big auctions coming up soon. it's been pretty good. here's the thing. okay. no alternatives is one thing. this market shows incredible resolve at the right time despite whatever news is out there. is there something else? something that is telling us the traditional method of the market, kind of saying, hey, once we get through this dip in earnings and whatever adjustments we're making, we'll be okay. >> i think that's exactly what the market is saying. it's weather-related.
the us economy will accelerate. and the bond market told you that as well. if things are so bad in the economy, you wouldn't have ten-year treasuries go from 1085 -- when the earning season comes through and companies start to talk about business, they'll talk up the economy. >> here's the thing, matt, i want to believe. i'm mostly long. you saw all the data. from the consumer to corporations, everyone is keeping money and everyone is sitting on cash. hoarding cash. there seems to be something people are afraid of. might even create a recession. >> i think it's self-fulfilling. the more you talk about it. perception becomes reality. you don't spend. everyone is waiting for the next catalyst for the reason to spend. if the consumer is spending more money, more demand for goods and services. or the capex spending first. i don't know what leads it. but, charles, the economy is good enough for the market to continue to move higher.
>> good enough from 6600 to dow 1800. to get it from here, that's the problem. we know businesses are not going to go ou out on a limb. they better see clear-cut demand. >> i think they'll start spending money. we'll see capex rise. i thought today was bullish. it made me optimistic that earnings will be strong. charles: wait. >> whoa. whoa. >> no. i think we are. >> we have a whole segment coming on earnings. you're jumping the gun. earnings will be strong, compared to what? i mean, this is like -- >> i think they are. charles: are you kidding me? >> i don't think they'll be negative, charles. i really don't. i think that we'll see some strength because i'm seeing lots of indication and namely in prices of stocks. stocks are going up. and, yes, it might be by default, as you said, but for the most part, it means that people really are spending, and i know that our number wasn't great for
employment, but -- charles: okay. scottie was going for a whole ten days. how are youineeg the world? >> while i'd love to agree with hillary and be that optimistic, the jobs report on friday, that's been the shining star, and all the other numbers were failing, the jobs report have great. now we're seeing adjustments for the last few months. oh, my gosh, that was a bad number. what else was bad? i think that was the start of a very bad reporting season unfortunately. not near as optimistic as i was in the past. >> wilbur, when we talk about these segments. what do we do for our viewers, real, real deal. last year, buying the dip was huge. you can look out longer term, do you still think that's a buyable option for the average investor, take advantage of these short-term pullbacks? >> well, it really depends on whether it's right on the earnings thing.
to me, i don't agree. the preannouncement of quarterly earnings have been very negative. not very positive. the ratio of negative advance warnings to positive is as bad as it's been for quite a few years. the people making the earnings don't quite agree. >> you would say keep your powder dry a little bit. >> it might be early. >> well, very clear the issue here. if corporate profits are down this year, the market is not going up. even if it is the only place to be. you must have a growth in corporate profits to sustain profits from the current valuation levels. >> you're saying the market can go higher than where it is now. not in the first and second quarter. >> you have to develop a conviction that earnings will be up in the third and fourth quarter for stock prices to go up from here. they're expected to go down. flattish for nonenergy. the market needs a conviction that the bottom line earnings will be up.
>> to hillary's point, it's obvious at this point right now that it's part of the equation. people are saying, hey, it's temporary. matt, what do we buy? matt: my little labs. big generic drug company. has some of its own drugs as well. peg ratio 1.7%. 10% from an all-time high. buying the dip. wait for the 10% pullback. charles: takeover candidate? matt: yeah. >> deep value. american national insurance. i look for stocks the institutions don't want to go into. maybe a lot of ownership on the management side. this is a galveston texas company. i love it for the long-term. >> you're not afraid of the texas economy hitting a speed bump? >> not them. they go under the radar. that's what i'm looking for in this economy, and, yes, i still think that earnings will be stronger. but i like these
companies -- >> when you say you like a stock that the big time money managers don't like, is the psychology behind that they eventually will at a higher price. you buy it at x and they buy it at this level. what about buying something that the big boys don't want to buy. >> eventually they'll look for deep value. they'll look for opportunities like this. $120, but the stock price is $95. that's the kind of thing i look for. i know they'll -- >> i'm thinking they made you one of the richest people in the world. >> the thing about deep value though, you need a catalyst to unlock it. >> so maybe it might be a family sale -- >> just because it's cheap, doesn't mean it will stay cheap. >> just taking stock positions and saying we'll stay there until the family sells or until an activist comes in. >> that's what we do. we are our own catalyst. that makes it safer.
[laughter] >> that's for sure. [laughter] charles: some bets on that. completely contrarian -- when people say something is dead, you kind of kick around carcasses. i don't know that the average investor has the guts to hang in as long. you had a bad year last year, it wasn't that great. >> we had one bad call. in the natural gas area. charles: okay. >> that was pretty punishing. charles: let's leave it there. coming into the day, we thought april would be the cruelest month. certainly the cruelest day. with everyone from john to would-be business owners sitting on the lens right now, is today really enough? was this an anomaly, if you will, are we destined for worse things? we'll talk about it. it's the only way to make you money. we'll be back in three minutes. ♪
♪ >> all right, guys, got to blow the whistle. let's open a page from payne's investment playbook. the quote for you. the awful daring of the moments of surrender in the age of prudence can never retract. by this and only this we have existed. that's from tsl. part of the wasteland whose first line actually goes april is the cruelest month. so if april does turn out to be as cruel as the signs indicate, will the economy surrender? we're seeing it in business start-ups. this goes back to 1978. the recent plunge in business start-ups worrisome. now we're seeing it in the jobs market. ironically since the recession is over, more people quit the job market after one month for looking for a job than have continued to look. those numbers are going up higher and higher. one month, they throw in
the towel. since then, it's been a disaster. the question is, will investors wave that white flag? right now key support points for the dow. right around here, this is your first key support point. 17,164 is another pretty -- let's call it 17100, guys. so surrender, waving the white flag. a lot of people continue to leave the jobs market. entrepreneurs have given up. job seekers have started to give up. scottie, i want to know about that. one month, you've been unemployed one month, that's it. after 30 days of hitting the bricks, you call it a day. >> a couple of factors factor into today. 40% of jobs don't even advertise. it's not what, you know, it's who you know. people think they can get on, filter through, and see if they have a job. another issue is pr. how many times do we hear that this company is closing.
this company is relocating. how rarely do we hear, hey, this one is opening and looking for employment. we're living in a time where the government incentivizes people to stay home and not work. not necessarily those lower paying jobs where they make money, not necessarily welfare, women stay home because it's cheaper to stay in a lower tax bracket. a lot of issues make it a little bit -- charles: a lot of people, depending on where you are, you actually could lose money entering the work force or getting off some of these programs. but, still, we know that ultimately if you can get on the ladder of success and stick with it, not for a long period of time, you should be able to stick to it. one month, tossing the towel for reasons scottie mentioned and others and give up. >> well, so many people have been dislocated from their job and profession. we've had a transfer. i've talked about cyber security. data mining. health care and the strength there. but you have so many people who had been in the manufacturing sector, and there have
been so many job losses. and the fact that the stock market is going up, and i might be positive about earnings, doesn't necessarily mean that i think that we've had a recovery. we've had a jobless recovery. >> i know that jobs are being created where people don't necessarily live. we look at the boom in north dakota. sometimes you have to get up and move. matt: i agree with all the points made so far. that doesn't equate to why they stop looking. that's what i don't understand. maybe put a little more blame on the government. end of 2013, more americans on means tested programs, example welfare, then there were full-time workers in this country. if you'll get paid to stay home and you can qualify for this, which obama pushed for, maybe that's why. charles: both are talking about increasing the -- that's one of the few bipartisan things i've heard. will it take something like that? >> that and a lot more. you need a pro growth congress and president. you have to get back to a ronald reagan type of
atmosphere to jump-start this economy. going back to the point you're making. i think there is a mismatch between the jobs that are available and the people who are unemployed. people might say, gee, i hear things are better. then they find out, they're outmoded and don't have the skills for the job. and screw it, i won't do it anymore. some of that is going on. >> wilbur, help us understand that and also businesses. you deal with a lot of businesses across a lot of different industries. what will it take to help businesses to create jobs in this country? >> i think the problem with business creation is millennials. twenty to 35 is the normal age when people start a business. i was a late bloomer. so i don't count in that. but usually it's 20 to 35. they're not starting businesses. they're -- they're not living the same way as the prior generation did. they're having family formation later. children even later after the family formation. a whole different lifestyle. and they're not buying
houses. used to be the dream was a house in the country. now they live in these little micro apartments with the big kind of a common area so they can hang out. >> wilbur, do you think they choose that lifestyle or is it because they're being forced into it because they can't get loans from banks and can't necessarily get some of the opportunities that were given to proves generations? >> i think it's some of both. >> one place is different is technology in silicon valley. there people are making fortunes. >> snapchat is offering 150 grand in stock -- you have to have a certain special skill to get that. and certain drive. i had the chart up of the markets. every time we get near these key support points and we talk about buying the dips and hold. if we were to start to break down, do you think that it would be a quick collapse. let's say the dow -- i don't know 17,000. whatever your number is. is there a number, if it does not hold, it changes the whole game? >> yes.
i mean -- and the problem is because there's so much leverage and margin right now in the market. so that's why everyone does have to be careful, to some extent. i mean, i still think our market is going up for the next year and a half. we shouldn't count this bull market out. yes, it can be a quirk spiral downwards. technology is moving that much faster. (?) those banks are so fast to pull the reigns back. matt: 1700. triple bottom. selling begets selling. i think we snap back quick. quick 10% pullback and snap back. >> we have the black box trading today. if there are certain levels that are hit, it will be faster, quicker, and more painful, it will go down until it stops. and it will reverse. charles: high frequency trading will not help. it will hurt. we have an ask payne speed round for you. keep them coming, the questions. tweet me. i'm @cvpayne. ♪
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support. buy into this weakness. >> comparatively, american airlines is still much cheaper than delta if you compare it. then delta america next jetblue. >> everyone in gold had a big move. time to jump in? >> gold is not an economic commodity. it's a psychological one. you should ask a psychiatrist. [laughter] charles: but, scottie, people are psychologically frustrated these days. >> people are panicking. they go and buy gold. when they bury it in their basement, get it out. matt: i hate gold. stay away from it. >> gold in periods of accelerating inflation and chaos. you don't have either right now. charles: it's a great store value. 5% of it. gold coins. can't go wrong. love to hear your thoughts on yandex. russia's market coming on really nicely.
i'm stuck in it. down a lot. holding on to it it right now. vladimir putin has been, of course, no good for this. it's a great company. somehow one day their valuation -- matt: this stock got thrown out. they'll do very well. there's antitrust investigation in google right now. they're trying to push google out. that's good for this company. charles: yeah. yeah. >> stick to america. you can do better with google. go to twitter, facebook. stay with -- charles: jim rodgers: russia is probably the most attractive stock market in the world. he's a contrarian guy. long-term. one year ago, wilbur ross was selling six times more than he was buying. has this market changed his true contrarian investing self? i read where you were still a six to one ratio. you still there? >> we are sellers. charles: you're sellers. of everything? >> no. no. but just trying to lighten up on things. chat the old axiom. buy low, sell high. >> asset values are
generally inflated too much? >> not so much. but when it gets hard to find things to buy, it's usually a good time to find things to sell. charles: what makes me nervous, you like to buy in catastrophic conditions. you're raising cash, does that mean the next thing is some sort of major, major correction across-the-board? >> no. we don't try to call markets. we try to deal with them as they evolve. >> let's leave it there. crude oil, jumping 6%. largest gain in a long time. the iran deal may not? can tough talking congress actually come to the rescue? that's next. ♪ you can't predict the market. but at t. rowe price, we've helped guide our clients through good times and bad.
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charles: despite president obama calling it a quote, once in a lifetime opportunity. his deal with iran is not a slamdunk in washington. while president was out there telling world how great the deal was, senator bob worker of tennessee, was saying that congress must play a role in final decision. the bill that would be disignated to give capital lawmakers a voice. >> it looks like -- agrees. maybe not the opportunity of a lifetime, crude oil, surged up 6%. ing in to the disbelief that more supply will come out via iran, the market may be reacting to one another thing. the dollar. on its way to a major support
point, it is been breaking down pretty good. what is going on? action in oil does not speak of a massive amount of crude coming on-line. bob crashinger -- corker is your guy. >> i think there a chance of congress, or bipartisan congress. charles: there would have to be. >> about three shy. charles: that is what he said. on fox news sunday, i saw confidence out of senator corker. a majority of americans do not like this deal, i promise you that the president picked a wrong fight for his legacy. charles: sometimes wall street just wants it to get over with.
the -- if this was the done deal, if congress could not intervene, how would the market react? >> well, i hate the deal myself. so, i would react negatively to it. i don't quite understand making a deal with someone who did not live up to the last deal you had with them. charles: there are a lot of amptions -- shawsm sun, assumpto this. the idea of trusting iran, just one thing that the president said in his press conference, he said something that to effect of iran cheats the world will know. i read that iran can cheat, they do have the ability to cheat. i don't trust them. >> the bet you are making if you sign this deal is that the enhanced economy in iran, will lead to pro western people forcing their government to
adapt, i am not saying it is good or bad bet. but i would say to people like wilbur, if you don't like the deal, what is the alternative, what are the ramifications. i have to ask that question. >> i will give you an answer, we need tighter sanctions, our government exempted iran's three main customers from oil for sanctions, china, india and japan, if you really enforce sanctions against those three that would have collapsed long ago. >> what would the collapse long ago. >> i don't know. charles: would it be opposite, almost economically driven the other way. the stick and the carrot, this is the stick. if people are running around in iran they can't get the basic supplies they revolve. charles: we missed a big opportunity. >> the difference is, if one way
negative falls apart in this direct, whom who -- people who rise up hate the west, they think we did it to them, if we work this way, the west is okay. a lot of -- >> but matt they already hate the west. >> the young people do not. >> they do. >> the young people, at any cost we should not be dealing with iran we should listen to prime minister netanyahu, this is not -- fur me this is about getting our western world blown up, we cannot deal with iranians. charles: i in 1984, i took a trip to the philippines, my hotel room had pictures of mohammed ali, all of the older philippineos loved americans, the younger ones hated americans, they -- this is my point, i don't know that the younger people will love us, it feels that people forget, who helped them or who salvaged them.
>> look at majority of isis recruiters, terrorism from this area is from the younger generation, they have more of a hatred. >> you give people hope, and prosperity, people are not born terrorists, they are not born haters, if you give people economic opportunities, they will be moderate -- charles: but the problem is that we wit an ugly attack in africat week, one of the guys who pulled it off is a high ranking guy's son. -- if congress does not get a chance to intervene here, and the president goes through with this, i am worried about idea of us cutting deals like this, cutting out the voice of american people, partnering with the u.n., does that also send a bad message to the american publish. >> it does but i am more worried about is this, this deal if it gets signed, saudis will buy
nuclear weapons right away. and i think that arab emirates states the as well, they will be skeptical that we'll be able to enforce it. and they really won't want to be left -- >> why would they buy them now if we do nothing, iran will build a bomb anyway. >> they have been doing things, who do you think took down the price of oil? and why do you think they took it down. >> for this reason right here. charles: saudi arabia trying -- >> making sure they strengthen ties with u.s. for defender against iran. >> richard nixon went to china at the time that china was our enemy, and he negotiated with them. charles: and a cynic may say that neville chamber land tried something similar with hitler that did not work out. >> tonight, "strange inheritance," jamie colby meets a family, they have a alligator
and crocodile ranch. 9:30, jamie with a new mexico man who inherits his mother's collection over 5,000 dolls. that sounds scary. that is at 9 p.m. on fox business. >> relationship between washington, and wall street, is so strong, there no doubt, it killing main street's hopes and dreams. can we break it. charles: we'll talk about it next. it does impact you, your wallet and your future. [announcer:] what if one stalk of broccoli could
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and may even put you in the hospital. prevnar 13 ® is used in adults 50 and older to help prevent infections from 13 strains of the bacteria that cause pneumococcal pneumiaon you should not receive prevnar 13 ® if you've had a severe allergic reaction to the vaccine or its ingredients if you have a weakened immune system, you may have a lower response to the vaccine. common side effects were pain, redness, or swelling at the injection site. limited arm movement, fatigue, head ache muscle or joint pain, less appetite, chills, or rash. even if you've already been vaccinated with another pneumonia vaccine, prevnar 13® may help provide additional protection. get this one done. ask your healthcare professional about prevnar 13® today. charles: imagine you get fired and you get paid 7 million bucks, that is what happens when you leave wall street for washington.
charles: enough is enough! wall street president latest wall street nominee, headline in huffington post, blaired out in november after president obama nominated -- white. he is latest in aer in ending string of wall street executives to work for president obama. last week there was a shocking report that morgan stanley cfo was going to receive $7 million if she had quit the firm to work for treasury department. if she quit they would give her 7 million bucks. this is relationship with wall street and washington mean that main street will never get a shot. >> this has been long the law if you leave private sector, and
you are forced to sell security, you pay no capital gains taxes that happened with paulson, and other treasury secretaries. charles: they were going to reward her. >> sh -- she was leaving under r contract,. charles: she went to work for google, i don't knowy this made her the same offer. >> they would not, the idea is to encourage government service. charles: why, is it service or influence? >> it is service, the fellow from lazard, who will find who knows how to deal with international monetary affairs except for someone who has been doing it, this is not a good place for on the job training. charles: we know that from the white house, but having said that, it feels like something is
amis. that this is your power struggle. and this is why wall street banks get bailed out, this is why you know no matter what presidential candidates say certain hedge fund managers pay lower tax rate, in reality these areas of about the most. which have scenickics go -- seen their economies go up the most. >> people are frustrated, there is a new on capitol hill called political intelligence, now people are getting intel to take to their friends, kind of an insider trading that is looking to be somewhat legal, the biggest insider traders right now is congress. you do want people that have experience in a success rate, at same time we're putting a fine dangerous line.
>> i think we had that relationship with wall street. wall street government, joseph kennedy with the sec . >> you see a bad idea? >> no, i am saying that is good, the part that bothers me is relationship that become so en - en twined. the -- inter29ed there are so much politics with everyone's money in the pension fund that is the part that wall street public sector private sector wall street that about either this -- bothers me the most. >> a lot of people at home think it is rigged, they hurt themselves, you can't fight it though.in the market, these two working together, who is better for the job to implement a wall street regulation, than someone on wall street. >> they can get hairy yes, but the right people are there to do the job, stock market --
charles: we'll leave it there. a multiyear low, pays a huge dividend. trying to follow that wilbur ross thing, try to make you some money. the pursuit of healthier. it begins from the second we're born. after all, healthier doesn't happen all by itself. it needs to be earned... every day... using wellness to keep away illness... and believing that a single life can be made better by millions of others. healthier takes somebody who can power modern health care... by connecting every single part of it. for as the world keeps on searching for healthier... we're here to make healthier happen. optum. healthier is here.
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china, and i think that stock has so much value, so oversold, you get paid a pretty good dividend. wilbur, i know you like things that are beaten down is it beat' down enough for you? is china? >> i think china is beaten down enough, yes. i agree with that. i don't think that china is anything away. or to zero, i don't think all of the banks are going to fail. charles: i know this guy who runs china, he is such a hard -- you know consolidateing power. i think caterpillar will come back, i like the management there they made some mistakes but i think they are on track for right now. >> i agree with you charles, in low 80, cat is a buy. you -- it is all about china. china stays on track. cat is a win-win. >> perfect storm for bears in
this, rising u.s. dollar, oil falling and china slowing down, you could not have a better script for the bears, it is priced in, in my opinion, i think start nibbleing. charles: in the world, china. they have some issues, so funny we have been counting down for china to imfloyd for over -- implode for over a decade, i think they are going to have a hundred billion dollar infrastructure thing, i think they will continue -- >> i am worried about property market a little bit, those empty cities are worrisome. >> i agree with what you said, and willer did said but growth -- wilbur said but growth rate will be lower than previous 10. and in india, if they excuse well may be a better long-term story from here. >> a lot of people jumping on that india bandwagon, i am leary of india carrying it out. >> all right i want to give a shout out, a ran across street
to get a sandwich, dan from wisconsin just moved here, he loves show, i got him investing, he is happy about it, his son is going to start investing, good luck with championship game, i give you a shout out, earning season set to kickoff, we have reached a point maybe, the bad news be bad news? so far the best thing you can do is miss the earnings, it will be big, it kicks off this week, that is next. 40% of streetlight at one point did not work. at the time that the bankruptcy filing was done, the public lighting authority had a hard time of finding a bank. citi did not run away from the table like some other bankers did.
they had the strength to help us go to the credit markets and raise the money. it's a brighter day in detroit. kids are feeling safer while they walk to school. 40% of the lights were out, but they're not out for long. they're coming back. if legalzoom has your back.s, over the last 10 years we've helped one million business owners get started. visit legalzoom today for the legal help you need to start and run your business. legalzoom. legal help is here.
in the fourth quarter, 69% of the s&p beat consensus on earnings which is better than the long-term average, but here's the thing that keeps wortherring a lot of -- bothering a lot of people, 57% only beat on the top line. top line miss, bottom line beat, some people saying that's engineered. what we've seen is that this markets has forged ahead under both scenarios. whether it's the red line with the negative earnings, market's gone up. and even a period where the positive earnings were coming through, and the markets still went up. either case, the markets sort of like, hey, good news, bad news, we'll rally. but this quarter is going to be interesting because so far the tally is that 101 companies already in the s&p 500 p warn versus 17 preannounced. and wilbur talked about this earlier, this is your ratio, 5.9%. it's only been higher once in recent history. worrisome stuff there. the first blue chip earnings
report is going to be thursday, alcoa, street's looking for them but overall down 4.6% earnings, that's very, very bad. this is the lowest it's been in a long time. first time i can remember year-over-year earnings actually being p down, going back maybe to 2013. so, hillary, earnings season? >> okay, the bar is so low that, yes, it is going to matter, and i think that all the companies are playing games with ultimate us. at the very -- games with us. expect april not to be the coolest month. >> i happen to agree with you. we see the preannouncements come out. discretionary u6% increases, i think we're going to see a lot of stocks rally. charles: it's a beautiful thing, jim. if the earnings are good, hey, we beat 'em, if they're bad, we told you -- that's a heck of a scenario. >> it's a complicated world, but
the expectations are very low for the first quarter, a little less low, but low for the second quarter. the key is the third and fourth quarter and what companies say about the third and fourth quarter and their estimates for that, and their full-year estimates -- charles: guidance is always important, but it might be more important than ever at this point, wilbur, what do you think? >> i think it will be because people are nervous. charles: i want to ask you, because i read where you and a group of investors have a $2 billion stake in euro bank which is a bet on greece making it through all of this nonsense. are they going to make it through this? >> yeah. i predict they will pay the full coupon that's due and the full -- charles: you're talking 480 billion euros. >> 485 million euros. charles: million. >> on the 9th. and i think they'll later make a deal. i think the rhetoric is changing. you have to remember this party that's running greece is only in office 100 days, and they've
been in being for decades. never been in office. charles: but, scottie, they were elected not to pay the bills. you could argue that. certainly, the rhetoric has been amazing, and they pulled out all the stops, including germany, you owe us for what the nazis did. they've tried it all. >> well, and the dollar's the most important. they also have to issue reforms that have been passed. if the reforms actually satisfy what the banks are wanting there's two tears to this. when do they reborrow back the money that they pay? >> on the 16th. [laughter] charles: i've got a couple of coaches like that. tonight's game, who's going to win? >> wisconsin. >> badgers. >> i'm just told it's a draw, and i'm not a basketball guy. >> i'm going to go for wisconsin though they beat my kentucky boys. charles: are you serious? is. >> i'll be the odd man out and
go for kentucky. [laughter] charles: wilbur's picking next year's winner. great show, wilbur, we really appreciate you coming on with us and, of course, at home, we love when you watch us. we leave you with the great man himself, lou dobbs. this is fox business. ♪ ♪ lou: good evening, everybody, i'm lou dobbs. the obama administration launching an aggressive sales campaign to line up support for the new obama framework agreement on iran's nuclear program. but it's going to be a tough sell, to say the least. republicans in congress can moving ahead with legislation -- congress moving ahead with legislation that would require congressional final approval of any deal if one is ever reached. and israeli officials are warning tonight that taking military action against iran's nuclear program remains an option. we'll take up whether president obama can win over a skeptical public and congress. we'll be talking with